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Zurich gold: 0.015kg @ €35,677/kg [7:14:11 AM WAT] London
gold: 0.139kg @ £30,290/kg [7:13:18 AM WAT]
Dear Reader,
This report is a collection from various well-respected writers, and would give
you an insight what has happened to gold the last week or so. There are
different views, and could be confusing for a investor/trader how to react
towards gold, buy or sell. My own opinion was and is till the same: “If you want a
solid assets and be save, and not end up under the water- then buy physical gold bullion
like the smart central banks and investors are. Ask yourself this question. Has any paper
currency ever survived its use as a store of value?”
Download, read and act wisely. Please forward to your colleagues, friends, whom ever you
know.
-----------
Jeff Christian: “The Reason Gold Prices Fell So Hard”
And why does the US Mint struggle to meet silver coin demand...?
FOUNDER of CPM Group and frequent market commentator Jeffrey Christian explains
the triggers behind heavy selling of gold last week and why there really isn't a silver
shortage at the US Mint in this interview with Hard Assets Investor.
Hard Assets Investor: What was the catalyst behind last week's historic downward
moves in gold?
Jeff Christian: There were two big groups selling. One was what we call "nervous
longs," people who were still long gold and silver. They had bought it because monetary
accommodations could be hyperinflationary and Europe and the banks were going to
collapse. None of that stuff has been happening. And the price of gold had come from
$1,900 to $1,600 to $1,550, and they're saying, "Gee, maybe all these gurus are wrong,
because there's no hyperinflation."
The other group was "emboldened shorts." Even before last week, even before April, if
you go and look at the Commitment of Traders reports from March 26, you had a sharp
increase in February and March of gross short positions on the Comex gold and silver
contracts. For 12 years these guys said, "I'm not so foolish as to short gold." But they
had been willing in the first quarter of this year to build up short positions sizes not seen
since the bear market of 1990s.
So you had a lot of people who were more and more willing to go short gold in the
expectation of lower prices already. Then on Friday you had the price just sort of
pancake down, dropping below $1,530, which brought in a round of sell orders both from
nervous longs and fresh short selling. That took the price below $1,500 where another
round of [sell] orders cascaded in. And it was just like stories of a building cascading—
pancaking on top of each other.
HAI: How have the last few days changed your view, if at all, on not just gold itself, but
also in regard to your price range of between $1,400 and $1,700? Do you feel that needs
to be adjusted?
Jeff Christian: We had been using $1,700, $1,750 as a high just on the idea that there
could be an outlier. We were saying we didn't think it would necessarily get there. And
really, the last couple days have basically reaffirmed our view pretty much. But the big
change is that those highs that we were thinking were possible are probably even less
possible now than they were back then.
HAI: Is the gold market too volatile for investors right now?
Jeff Christian: It really depends on the investor. Today [Tuesday, April 16] has been a
very constructive day. The question facing investors is: Is today a dead-cat bounce or
the buyback? We're waiting to see the data, but our gut feeling is that what you're
seeing right now is that the last two days were so intense in terms of the selling because
the weak hands reflected that nervous-long position, and they probably sold. Similarly,
the shorts have probably built up as large of a short position as they dare take.
When I say "dare," you have to understand two other things. It's not just what they dare
to take; it's what their banks will allow them to hold given the fact that they use
borrowed money. It also has to do with the margins. If you were going to short silver at
$28 and now it's $22 or $23 and the margins are rising, you've got to say, "Well, what's
my risk/reward ratio? Maybe I should buy back some of these shorts."
Investors ask, "What will turn the price around?" The answer is the cessation of price
flowing. Because as soon as the price stops flowing, you'll see some of those shorts
liquidating, which will cause the price to rise, and you'll also see bargain-hunting. You're
seeing some of that today, and our gut feeling, without having the data confirm it, is
that we may see that continuing. Yesterday [Monday, April 15] probably saw the lows for
gold and silver, and the prices could rise maybe to $1,400 or $1,450 for gold, and
maybe $25.50 or $26.50 for silver in short order.
HAI: Do you think that the maturity of the gold ETF market has added a new dynamic to
the way the gold price moves?
Jeff Christian: ETF holdings have done two things to gold. One is that it's made it a lot
easier to buy and sell. It's a simple click of a button. You don't have a manager on the
other side of that button. I've seen it in the futures market where banks can assure
producers, "Yes, we can handle 400,000 ounces of gold." And so the producer says "Fine,
I want to sell 400,000 ounces of gold." And the bank says, "Well, we've got to work this
order."
But with the ETF, no one is saying, "I've got to work this order." It's like, "No, I'm selling
400,000 ounces now." That gold goes off into the system and it cannot be denied. Then
it increases the volatility and the prospect for sharp moves on both sides of price.
And the other thing is that the ETFs provide a daily reckoning of physical-investor buying,
at least for a small portion of the physical market. You always have daily futures and
options data, but there's never been a good measure of how much gold is being bought
or sold on a daily basis in the physical market.
Now, the ETF is still a small portion of the total physical market. Most of the gold is
bought in China and India, in the Middle East, and it's not bought through ETFs. So you
still don't get 80-85 percent of the gold market reflected, but you have at least a
measure. And I guess that is bad and good: a) You have a measure; b) You have a
measure that's not necessarily reflective of the total market. But in the absence of a
good measure of the total market, a lot of investors will rely on it as a reflection. So it's
a bad barometer, but a measure nonetheless.
HAI: George Soros floated the idea this past month that gold has disappointed the
public in the sense of its safe-haven qualities. Do you agree with that?
Jeff Christian: I don't think gold has changed its attributes in terms of its uses for
investors. I always am very cautious to say that I'm disagreeing with George, because I
think George is probably more often misunderstood when he makes public comments,
especially about gold, than wrong. And one of the points that he was making was that
what we've seen is the gold prices come off—for example in late 2008 into early 2009—
and that, as such, maybe it wasn't as great of a safe haven.
My view of gold through history is that it does several things for investors. It is a store
value, it's a safe haven, it's a portfolio diversifier, but it's also a source of liquidity in
times of emergencies and crises. And it's always been. It's done that during World War II,
World War I, the Napoleonic Wars and it did that in 2008. The price will come off when
you get to a point where people all of a sudden need cash, and they liquidate their gold
to get at their cash.
In 1997, during the Asian currency crisis, the people who really survived in Thailand
were the people who still owned gold. The Thai Baht sold 70 percent against the Dollar in
a very short period of time. Those businesspeople who had been doing very well prior to
1997 and converting their wealth into Dollars and Deutschmark and other currencies and
investing on a leverage basis of building new factories were crushed. Those people who
did that, but kept some of their money in gold, did OK, because the gold price went up
70 percent against the Thai baht. They actually wound up buying the factories that other
people were selling in distress.
Gold has always provided liquidity in times of stress. Investors shouldn't be disappointed
if gold does its job. Investors imbue too much expectation in gold and then they get
disappointed.
HAI: What is one of the most important metrics that you watch for in gold?
Jeff Christian: We have a proprietary program to develop estimates of supply and
demand, and investment demand. We pay a tremendous amount of attention to
investment-demand flows. We really want to know what investors are doing. ETFs only
represent a small portion of the total gold market. So you can't just look at ETFs and say,
"Well, this is what gold investors are doing. But what we do is we try to be in continual
conversation with gold market participants around the world—India, China, the Middle
East, Europe, the United States—so that we can get a sense of what investors are doing.
Sometimes it's anecdotal information. So for example, a week after the Lunar New Year,
the gold price fell sharply. One of the reasons was that the sales to investors of gold
during the Lunar New Year were disappointing. You had a lot of bullion dealers in China
who had stocked up gold inventory in anticipation of very strong sales during the holiday
period. The sales didn't materialize, and a lot of their clients were bad-mouthing gold's
price prospects.
So when the dealers came back, they unloaded their inventories. They don't have gold
options there, so they don't have an effective way to hedge their inventory. These guys
were long and exposed, and they were seeing weaker investor sales, so they sold gold.
HAI: Does that include jewelry demand?
Jeff Christian: One of the problems we have is trying to decipher aggregate-investment
demand from gold jewelry. You can to some extent, but there's clearly overlap. In China
and India, you find a lot of gold statues and decorative objects, little trinkets made out
of gold. On the one hand, they're jewelry or decorative objects, but on the other hand,
they're investment demand. So you can talk about the purchase of gold in bars and
coins and medallions, but you also have to pay attention to some of the jewelry demand,
simply because some of it is quasi-investment.
HAI: What are some of the best reasons to sell gold? Or are you a buy-and-hold gold
philosopher?
Jeff Christian: I am a gold agnostic. One of the reasons people would sell gold is
because they expect the price to fall. Then you say, "Well, why would you expect the
price of gold to fall?" If you see a sharp diminution in the amount of economic and
financial uncertainty in the world, that's a good reason to sell gold.
Another thing to pay attention to is an increase in gold supply. And the third thing goes
back to that first one: if you see investors pulling back from the market. One of the
metrics that we use, that I didn't mention earlier, is that we pay attention to the premia
that are available for American Eagle gold coins and Canadian Maple Leaf coins. When
investors get negative on gold's immediate price prospects, they'll actually pull back
from buying Eagles, or in some cases, sell Eagles and the premiums will fall.
Over the last 18 months, we've watched the premia very closely. When the price spiked
down to $1,530 or $1,540, the premia shot up, which tells you that investors are buying
gold at those dips. And then when the price would shoot up—as it did three times in late
2011 through 2012—to $1,780 or $1,790 or $1,800 an ounce, you would see the premia
fall, which would tell you investors at least are not buying, and in fact they may be
selling gold coins. So that's a good metric.
HAI: Silver production continues to grow despite falling prices. What is really driving
silver production? And is there a point where, as with natural gas, the producers are
going to say, "We need the price to be higher for us to continue to do this profitably"?
Jeff Christian: The short answer is mine production's rising because the price of silver
is sharply higher. Silver traded between $4.50 and $5.50 for most of the period from the
late 1980s until 2005. There were a lot of properties that were not profitable to mine or
develop at $5.50 an ounce that are now profitable. And so you're seeing production rise
as a result of that.
Now costs are rising too, but these guys still have on average a pretty good margin.
There were some producers that were very high priced, and are really at risk with the
price coming down now to $26 and $27 an ounce. If the price continues to fall, there are
some guys who are at risk. But the vast majority of the producers are very profitable
even at $20 an ounce. So I think that you'll see that production continue to rise for the
next several years.
HAI: Since we have this growing production, why does the US Mint continually run out
of silver for its coins?
Jeff Christian: I don't know the Mint's operations as intimately as I knew in the '80s
and '90s when we were advising them. But the Mint doesn't run out of silver; it runs out
of silver blanks. And I think that that's the key. You have to understand that to have
silver inventories tied up in blanks and in struck coins waiting to sell is very costly. The
Mint tries to minimize the amount of money it has tied up in working inventories. And
that's why they keep running short.
A lot of companies built capacity to make blanks and rounds and small bars in the 1980s
because of the run-up in demand and prices then. By the late 1980s, no one was buying
that silver, they were selling it back to the market and these guys were writing off their
factories. So when you saw the price started to rise again in 2005/2006, what you saw
were a lot of people who make small investment products saying, "I'm not going to
make that same mistake again, and build up manufacturing capacity for something that
could be gone in 24 months." Well, it's been six years now and it's not gone.
Some companies have given in and they've built up capacity, so there is more capacity
now than there was in 2008 when they really had problems sourcing blanks. But it's a
matter of very cautious businesspeople in the blanking business saying, "I'm not sure I
want to build up capacity for something that could go away for the next 20 years the
way it did last time." And the Mint is saying, "We don't want to necessarily build up
inventories here and then investors turn off their demand for silver."
Hard Assets Investor, 22 Apr '13
Hardassetsinvestor.com is a research-oriented website devoted to sharing ideas about
investing in the natural resources sector. Published by Van Eck Associates Corporation,
the site offers an educational resource for both individual and institutional investors
interested in learning more about commodity equities, commodity futures, and gold –
the three major components of the hard assets marketplace.
Is Gold as an Investment Finished?
Before delving deeper into that question, perhaps we should see what the mainstream
media thinks. In fairness to the MSM, we note there are plenty of articles on both sides
of the debate. Yet there has been some media piling-on since the recent hard
breakdown in gold. The aptly named Howard Gold explains:
The Case for Owning Gold Has Collapsed; Yellow metal could be headed much, much
lower .
Gold could be headed not much lower, but much much lower. This was written on April
18, when the value assigned to the monetary relic (AKA its nominal price) resided at
$1391 per ounce. So be warned, Mr. Gold advises that gold could go much
much lower. Gold bugs take heed; Mr. Gold himself has put the double ‘much’ whammy
on you!
After critical support at 1524 was lost our first downside target of 1440 or so was sawn
through like Balsa Wood. Okay fine. For those who micro manage every tick in
the price of gold (I am not one), then here is the situation; the current little rebound
must extend back up to and through the broken support level at 1440 or the next target
in the low 1200’s is up next.
See the weekly chart on page 3, which was produced 5 weeks ago in NFTRH 230. While
not a favored outcome, recent events with gold’s price are not surprising.
To review, the two potential points to watch for in the event of a breakdown from 1524
were the weekly EMA 200, which supported the 2008 decline and then the conservative
measurement from the pattern breakdown, which is in the low 1200’s, which also
includes a visual support shelf from 2010. The less conservative measurement (the top
at 1900 to 1524) would target around 1150.
So that is the price picture, now on to the fundamentals courtesy of Mr. Gold. From the
article linked above:
“But gold’s price could be headed much, much lower, said Campbell Harvey, a professor
at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University. Harvey has looked at gold prices
over the centuries, and concludes that it’s still trading at lofty multiples of inflation.”
In the article linked above there is another link where you can download the research of
Mr. Harvey and colleague Claude Erb – currently making the rounds like a good gold bug
horror movie – that talks about gold’s “real” price as measured by CPI and GDP. Boiling
it all down, gold is historically over valued as compared to measures of the effects of
inflation on consumer prices and relative to GDP.
We will steer clear of the debate about government number fudging, because it is a
battle that is not necessary. The Federal Reserve and many of its counterparts around
the globe are inflating, or trying their damnedest to inflate. They are using debt
instruments to create money out of nowhere and pumping it into big banks, which are
supposedly expected to release the money out to the public.
This could one day manifest in an out of control inflation problem (as measured by the
lagging effects that Harvey and Erb call inflation, or resolve into a more intense
deflationary phase as the thing that is just a whiff now gains momentum and swallows
the entire spectrum of inflated assets in one big gulp of illiquidity.
The economy has depended on inflationary policy since the age of Inflation on Demand
began under Alan Greenspan’s oversight in and around 2000.
Ask yourself this; why are they inflating? Why are they printing money at a furious pace
if the GDP is real and sustainable? The answer is likely because they know that the
financial system is a leveraged thing that must not be allowed to start deflating because
if it starts deleveraging, it is not going to stop until the books are cleared.
Gold vs. Commodities, What is the Message?
The authors noted above measure gold’s ‘real’ price in CPI and GDP. Here we have
always measured it relative to the commodity complex, which is generally positively
correlated to the global economy. Above is gold vs. the CCI commodity index.
I had originally thought that a decline to the lower moving average would come with a
continued economic bump, stock bull market and inflation-fueled commodity
bounce. But instead, gold has tanked vs. commodities even as a deflationary pull starts
to take hold with signs of economic deceleration, commodities down and the stock
market potentially in some kind of a topping process.
Yet the ‘real’ price is still in a secular uptrend because the ratio has held above another
parameter point we noted as important. If the blue arrow is confirmed by turning green
one day, the message will continue to be a secular era of economic contraction, which
has thus far been fought tooth and nail by inflationary policy. That is and has been the
case for gold since day one. Not the case most gold bugs root for, which is
inflationary effects, the likes of which are used as data points by Harvey and Erb. See?
Of course Harvey and Erb scare the gold “community” because a majority of the
“community” sees gold as a hedge against higher prices. If the above chart breaks down
and makes a lower low to the spring of 2011 (the height of the last commodity/inflation
blowout) then we may have to admit Bernanke wins, Draghi wins, BoJ, China Central
Planning and all other inflators win. They will have managed to create sustainable
economies literally out of thin air.
The alternative to that is hyperinflation, where an asset grab of epic proportions could
engage with gold under performing things you can actually eat, keep warm with and use
for fuel. This asset grab would come out of a debased monetary system.
More realistically however, we might look for the real price of gold to gain support in its
secular uptrend. This would see economic contraction and by extension, further decline
in commodities and stocks markets. We have noted all along that the nominal gold price
can decline in this environment, so people should know why they own the thing. Also,
getting out of the ‘death of the dollar’ cult might be wise as well.
The USD, as long as implied confidence in our leaders remains intact, may be pulled
upward with the real price of gold as a contraction phase bites harder. This is the
world’s reserve currency in which a majority of global transactions are settled. As long
as this remains the case, there will be claims on Uncle Buck. USD, as of the moment, is
liquidity within the system. Gold by the way, is liquidity outside the system.
The average gold bug’s worst enemy is… the inflation tout. It is not the government or
the big banks. It is the individual’s expectations of a lump of shiny metal. If they have
not gotten this simple concept yet, after the recent damage, I am afraid they will never
get it. And they will puke up their gold, which failed to protect them from the dreaded
inflation that wasn’t.
Bottom Line
The “dreaded inflation” is measured in the mainstream by prices (CPI, etc.), not policy-
making actions. Gold is a barometer and the pressure it would indicate could be
inflationary or deflationary.
If one day you see the gold price skyrocket, then be prepared for a coming (lagging)
inflation problem that would indeed eventually show up in prices. This could propel
commodities, resources, productive economies and even stock markets to new heights.
If on the other hand gold just hangs around or declines, yet the ‘real’ price as measured
in commodities rises again, the backdrop would be one of continued economic
contraction and declining asset prices.
The third alternative is the least likely; gold hangs around or declines and yet the ‘real’
price loses its secular uptrend. This would indicate a sustainable economic expansion,
created by inflationary policy has engaged. Thus far, inflationary policy has served to
build in distortions that subject the system to extreme liquidations. That right there is
the continuing case for gold – and for the time being I might add – cash, lots of it.
Okay now, that’s the theory. I have got a technical report to write, so lets get to
it. NFTRH 235 then goes on to review the technical pictures of the precious metals,
precious metals stocks, commodities and stock markets in an unbiased manner. This
has kept the analysis on the right side of the markets throughout recent dynamic
events. If you would like a hard-working service that does whatever it takes to be
prepared for what the market throws at us, consider a subscription to NFTRH.
Source: Watch Todays 1pm Market Update
Portfolio Manager Greg Orrell: 'My Belief in Gold Has Not Wavered'
april 25, 2013
The Gold Report: How has your bullish view on the gold sector evolved as a series of
crises has jolted both the international stock market and the price of gold?
Greg Orrell: First off, my belief in gold as a monetary asset has not wavered. Japan
basically admitted that it is bankrupt with its intention to aggressively debase its
currency. Normally such actions would invoke, and may still, a race to the bottom as
each country engages in economic warfare to deal with its debt issues. At this juncture
the fear of global deflation among the G7 crowd remains its worst nightmare, especially
as additional stimulus by the Federal Reserve is showing diminishing returns. With high
debt levels in both the private and public sectors around the world, stimulating economic
growth is proving elusive. These alarming events are setting the stage for the next leg
up in the dollar gold price, in my opinion. The fiscal and monetary crisis is ongoing and
underscores the necessity of owning gold assets.
Though agonizing, the past 18 months have been nothing more than a consolidation for
gold from the September 2011 highs of $1,900/ounce ($1,900/oz). The recent decline in
gold prices below $1,500/oz is not the end of the bull market in gold, despite the
barrage of negative commentary by those wanting to dance on gold's grave. The
destruction of currencies is in full bloom, but it is not a straight line. The problem for
many gold investors is that they can see the endgame. Gold prices rise in a straight line
at the end of a monetary system, but we are not there yet. It takes some patience to
hold the course while the establishment fights tooth and nail to keep the dollar system
from failing.
TGR: The years 2009 and 2010 were better for gold stocks. Can you talk about how
things changed after that and how investors can best respond to the precipitous drop in
market value?
GO: A number of factors go into the poor performance of the gold shares over the past
couple of years besides the gold price. We have seen investor rotation out of defensive
posturing and then the gold miners ended up being their own worst enemy. Gold share
investors became concerned, and rightfully so, with rising operating and capital costs,
poor capital allocation and growing resource nationalization. This in turn made bullion
exchange-traded fund (ETF) products more attractive and prompted a trend of shorting
the miners versus long gold positions.
Let's look at the world's largest producer, Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX:TSX; ABX:NYSE). It
incurred cost overruns at the Pascua-Lama project in Latin America. And it overpaid for a
copper asset in Africa after spinning off its African gold assets a couple of years earlier.
Each of these instances led to contraction of cash flow and net asset value multiples for
the whole sector, and set a theme for the industry. At this point, the pendulum has
swung too far, with the shares basically discounting everything that could go wrong and
more. Therefore, if an investor is not in the gold sector, now is an opportune time to
take advantage of the significant decline in share values as there are signs of positive
change taking place within the sector.
TGR: Can you provide any insight as to why longer-term investors, and also new gold
investors, should buy into the current gold market?
GO: The rationale for owning gold assets remains simple: global deterioration of
sovereign credit and a growing need to debase currencies in order to meet future
obligations, whether it's here in the U.S., Europe or Japan. The policy of socializing risk
with monetary and fiscal policy has destroyed the balance sheets of the Western world.
We are in a phase of experimental central banking, which I believe is going to end badly
due to the dislocations of capital it has caused through prolonged periods of negative
rates.
In the event economic growth were to take hold, an unleashing of built up reserves in
the system would set off inflation with a corresponding rise in rates. Just imagine the
effect of a change in the direction of interest rates and the collateral damage that will
create in the bond markets and the interest rate derivative markets after all of these
years of managing a zero interest rate policy. The cost of funding the U.S. deficit will rise
exponentially. More quantitative easing begets more quantitative easing. Investors need
to have some type of asset to balance their portfolios. Policymakers who got us into this
mess are unlikely to navigate us out of it. History tells us that only gold is a good place
to be.
TGR: Is now a good time to be looking at the gold miners, including the juniors?
"The recent decline in gold prices is not the end of the bull market."
GO: Absolutely. With current sentiment negative on the miners, it is an incredible
opportunity to buy gold shares and recapture lost value. A major problem for the mining
industry is that its business model is flawed. Gold investors are not strictly interested in
taking money from one hole in the ground and putting it in another. Investors want
participation in cash flow through dividends and earnings leverage to higher gold prices
along with the potential for increased shareholder value through discovery . Not paying
dividends was great for management, geologists, engineers and everyone but the
investor who was locked out of the cash flow.
Now falling share prices have put the onus on management to compete with the ETFs for
investor dollars. A number of CEOs are being shown the door. Marginal projects are
being shelved. Dividends are increasing. Management is beginning to understand that
the needs of shareholders must be prioritized. Granted, the decline has been painful, but
in my 30 years in the business, this is exactly what needed to happen.
TGR: Has the balance in your portfolio between bullion, large caps, mid caps, small caps,
ETFs, royalties and cash changed over the last five years?
GO: Because production is cheap, we are weighting toward the large- and mid-cap
producers. They are poised to recapture value as sentiment turns around in that space.
The smaller, macro-cap exploration and development companies are bombed out, and a
number of companies are trading where market cap per resource ounce is down to $10
or lower. Those companies are interesting as long as they have a balance sheet and
they're not diluting their shares to keep the lights on. Royalty companies have
outperformed along with bullion over the last five years because of all the negative
factors that I mentioned previously. But I'm not adding to the royalty companies right
now because the operating companies offer better value.
TGR: You're not adding to bullion?
GO: Not at this time. We're keeping bullion around 56%. The miners, in my opinion,
offer tremendous value at this point with gold reserves in the ground.
TGR: Who are some of the companies you think are attractive in the middle and small
spaces?
GO: Endeavour Mining Corp. (EDV:TSX; EVR:ASX) is interesting right here. The share
price has been washed out because it is a higher-cost producer, around $900/oz. Its
market cap is down to under $400 million ($400M) with 300,000 oz (300 Koz) of annual
production in West Africa, but is slated to grow to 450 Koz over the next couple of years.
That's a 50% increase. Endeavour is driving expansion mostly from internally generated
cash flow.
"In the past, the majors looked for big projects because they did not want to operate the
smaller mines. Now they are focusing on grade and smaller projects that won't blow up
the company."
Esperanza Resources Corp. (EPZ:TSX.V) is cashed up with over $70M and with
experienced management is developing a couple of attractive heap-leach projects in
Mexico. One project can put up 35 Koz/year and another one can do 110 Koz/year. Pan
American Silver Corp. (PAA:TSX; PAAS:NASDAQ) is a major shareholder. Esperanza
could be an early day Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI:TSX).
Avala Resources Ltd. (AVZ:TSX.V), 50% owned by Dundee Precious Metals Inc.
(DPM:TSX), is trading down at dirt prices. The company has an entire Carlin-style belt
tied up in Serbia where it has outlined close to 3 million ounces (3 Moz) so far. The
company's market cap is $1215M, with $9M in the bank; it's not a bad optionthe market
will appreciate the optionality value on the company's assets at some point.
TGR: Are you a fan of the royalty model?
GO: I am a fan of royalty companies. The revenue comes right off the top so royalty
holders have no exposure to increases in costs and typically have exposure to increases
in reserves. Royalty companies often acquire the royalties from the original property
owners. Another form of royalty is the creation of a gold or silver stream: the royalty
firm helps to finance the project and receives gold or silver in return. We have seen a
pick up of companies selling either net smelter royalties or streaming deals on projects
as a way to finance in a marketplace where equity capital has become expensive.
TGR: Are there any royalty companies that people should be looking at?
GO: We own a couple of the big ones in our portfolio Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD:NASDAQ;
RGL:TSX) and Franco-Nevada Corp. (FNV:TSX; FNV:NYSE). We also own Silver Wheaton
Corp. (SLW:TSX; SLW:NYSE). Sandstorm Gold Ltd. (SSL:TSX) is the up and coming
player in the royalty space. It's a highly competitive business. Recently a number of
junior companies have cobbled together questionable projects that most likely won't
come into production in order to claim that they are royalty companies. Franco, Royal
and Silver Wheaton have committed significant dollars to individual projects of late,
which increases their risk profiles. However, with the diversification of their asset bases
at this point, it should not be a problem with all three positioned to grow revenues
substantially over the next three years. So overall I do like the royalty model.
TGR: What is your take on pure-play gold producers?
GO: I prefer pure-play gold producers, but those deposits are hard to find. Randgold
Resources Ltd. (GOLD:NASDAQ; RRS:LSE)is a good example of a pure gold play, as are
a number of other intermediates and juniors. But often base metals accompany gold. All
of the major gold producers produce copper: Goldcorp Inc. (G:TSX; GG:NYSE),
Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM:NYSE), Yamana Gold Inc. (YRI:TSX; AUY:NYSE;
YAU:LSE), New Gold Inc. (NGD:TSX; NGD:NYSE.MKT) and Barrick. Production has been
shelved in many big copper-gold porphyry deposits because it is so capital intensive.
Consequently, we are more likely to see the smaller, pure gold projects go forward.
In the past, the majors looked for big projects because they did not want to operate the
smaller mines. Now they are focusing on grade and smaller projects that won't blow up
the company. It may be smarter to take on 10 projects producing 150 Koz than to try
and capitalize one project capable of producing 1.5 Moz.
TGR: Do any particular firms come to mind in that area?
GO: Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI:NYSE) out of South Africa says it is going to focus on smaller
projects, around 150200 Koz. I've heard the same thing from Newmont. Management is
not going to be punished for making a small acquisition versus a buy of $5 billion. The
big buy days are not likely to return any time soon. Managements' excuse that it was
difficult to manage multiple smaller assets rather than a couple of large ones has been
cast aside as the large projects have shown to expose companies to too much risk.
TGR: We both live in California where there's a history of gold mining, but current public
awareness is limited. What the story?
GO: There is gold in the Mother Lode Belt in Northern California, in Imperial County in
Southern California and in Siskiyou County in far Northern California. The unemployment
rate in those areas is pretty high, so the residents are open to mining's economic
benefits. It is the outsiders who are up in arms about mining. Regulations have been put
in place by a very staunch environmental crowd in California, but it's no different than
what we see around the world where local residents are in favor of a mine because of its
economic benefits, only to have the professional environmentalists come in and oppose
the project.
TGR: What junior gold miners in California are worthwhile?
GO: One project that has the potential to turn mining around in California is the Sutter
Gold Mining Inc. (SGM:TSX.V; OTCQX:SGMNF) start up of the Lincoln mine on the
Mother Lode Belt in Amador County. It's a high-grade, underground mine that's financed
by its 50% shareholder, the Rand Merchant Bank. The first 150200 feet (150200 ft) of
that deposit is going to pay back the capital cost of building and developing the mine.
The mines on either side of it historically produced down to 4,000 ft. Production will start
off relatively low at about 22 Koz/year. But there are significant growth opportunities at
the Lincoln mine and along the Mother Lode Belt for Sutter to exploit once it has
established itself. I am very excited about its prospects.
TGR: How do the California companies stack up against Nevada-based mining companies?
GO: Atna Resources Ltd. (ATN:TSX) has a heap-leach mine down in Southern California
that has been going for quite some time. New Gold has the old Mesquite mine, which is a
heap-leach mine near the border of Mexico. But California has hardly any mining activity,
or even exploration activity. So I would say it doesn't stack up at this point.
TGR: Is that primarily because of environmental regulations or the political climate or
the availability of gold?
GO: The perceived difficult environmental and permitting climate in California has been a
deterrent. If a company wants to do open-pit mining in California, it must be prepared to
backfill the pit. That is not required in most places.
TGR: How expensive is it to backfill?
GO: Handling waste material can be quite expensive. So the real California-based
opportunity is underground mining in the Mother Lode Belt and that also is where the
higher-grade ore is.
TGR: Maybe we'll see a replay of 1849.
GO: We're not going to see a replay of 1849. What we'll see is a replay of the
underground mines of between 1900 and 1940. Some of those were just great mines
and were the blue chip companies of their day. The gold is still there.
TGR: Thank you, Greg.
Greg Orrell is the portfolio manager of the OCM Gold Fund. He is also president of Orrell
Capital Management, the investment adviser to the fund. Orrell has over 28 years of
experience in the gold sector as a retail and institutional broker, investment banker and
portfolio manager.
Want to read more Gold Report interviews like this? Sign up for our free e-newsletter,
and you'll learn when new articles have been published. To see a list of recent interviews
with industry analysts and commentators, visit our Streetwise Interviews page.
DISCLOSURE:
1) Peter Byrne conducted this interview for The Gold Report and provides services to The
Gold Report as an independent contractor. He or his family own shares of the following
companies mentioned in this interview: None.
2) The following companies mentioned in the interview are sponsors of The Gold
Report: Royal Gold Inc., Franco-Nevada Corp. and Goldcorp Inc. Streetwise Reports does
not accept stock in exchange for its services or as sponsorship payment.
3) Greg Orrell: I or my family own shares of the following companies mentioned in this
interview: Endeavour Mining Corp., Avala Resources Ltd., Esperanza Resources Corp.,
Newmont Mining Corp., New Gold Inc., Sutter Gold Inc., Randgold Resources Ltd., Royal
Gold Inc., Silver Wheaton, Barrick Gold Corp. and Gold Fields Ltd., all owned through
holdings in the OCM Gold Fund. I personally am or my family is paid by the following
companies mentioned in this interview: None. My company has a financial relationship
with the following companies mentioned in this interview: None. I was not paid by
Streetwise Reports for participating in this interview. Comments and opinions expressed
are my own comments and opinions. I had the opportunity to review the interview for
accuracy as of the date of the interview and am responsible for the content of the
interview.
4) Interviews are edited for clarity. Streetwise Reports does not make editorial
comments or change experts' statements without their consent.
5) The interview does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to
consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a
result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this
page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports' terms of use and full legal
disclaimer.
6) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or
members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on
the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned and may make
purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise.
Source: Watch Todays 1pm Market Update
Paper Gold, Physical Gold: The Ultimate Disconnect
A look at the recent gold price crash...
HOW CAN we explain gold dropping into the $1,300 level in less than a week?
asks Casey Research chief economist Bud Conrad.
Here are some of the factors:
George Soros cut his fund holdings in the biggest gold ETF by 55% in the fourth
quarter of 2012.
He was not alone: the gold holdings of GLD have contracted all year, down about
12.2% at present.
On April 9, the FOMC minutes were leaked a day early and revealed that some
members were discussing slowing the Fed $85 billion per month buying of
Treasuries and MBS. If the money stimulus might not last as long as thought
before, the "printing" may not cause as much Dollar debasement.
On April 10, Goldman Sachs warned that gold could go lower and lowered its
target price. It even recommended getting out of gold.
COT Reports showed a decrease in the bullishness of large speculators this year
(much more on this technical point below).
The lackluster price movement since September 2011 fatigued some speculators
and trend followers.
Cyprus was rumored to need to sell some 400 million Euros' worth of its gold to
cover its bank bailouts. While small at only about 350,000 ounces, there was a
fear that other weak European countries with too much debt and sizable gold
holdings could be forced into the same action. Cyprus officials have denied the
sale, so the question is still in debate, even though the market has already
moved. Doug Casey believes that if weak European countries were forced to sell,
the gold would mostly be absorbed by China and other sovereign Asian buyers,
rather than flood the physical markets.
My opinion, looking at the list of items above, is that they are not big enough by
themselves to have created such a large disruption in the gold market.
Paper Gold
The paper gold market is best embodied in the futures exchanges. The prices we see
quoted all day long moving up and down are taken from the latest trades of futures
contracts. The CME (the old Chicago Mercantile Exchange) has a large flow of orders and
provides the public with an indication of the price of gold.
The futures markets are special because very little physical commodity is exchanged;
most of the trading is between buyers taking long positions against sellers taking short
positions, with most contracts liquidated before final settlement and delivery. These
contracts require very small amounts of margin – as little as 5% of the value of the
commodity – to gain potentially large swings in the outcome of profit or loss. Thus,
futures markets appear to be a speculator's paradise. But the statistics show just the
opposite: 90% of traders lose their shirts. The other 10% take all the profits from the
losers. More on this below.
On April 12, there were big sell orders of 400 tonnes that moved the futures market
lower. Once the futures market makes a big move like that, stops can be triggered,
causing it to move even more on its own. It can become a panic, where markets react
more to fear than fundamentals.
Having traded in futures for over two decades, I want to provide some detail on how
these leveraged markets operate. It's important to understand that the structure of the
futures market allows brokers to sell positions if fluctuations cause customers to exceed
their margin limits and they don't immediately deposit more money to restore their
margins. When a position goes against a trader, brokers can demand that funds be
deposited within 24 hours (or even sooner at the broker's discretion). If the funds don't
appear, the broker can sell the position and liquidate the speculator's account. This
structure can force prices to fall more than would be indicated by supply and demand
fundamentals.
When I first signed up to trade futures, I was appalled at the powers the broker wrote
into the contract, which included them having the power to immediately liquidate my
positions at their discretion. I was also surprised at how little screening they did to
ensure that I was good for whatever positions I put in place, considering the high levels
of leverage they allowed me. Let me tell you that I had many cases where I was told to
put up more margin or lose my positions. Those times resulted in me selling at the worst
level because the market had gone against me.
The point of this is that once a market moves dramatically, there are usually stops taken
out, positions liquidated, margin calls issued, and little guys like me get taken to the
cleaners. Debates rage about the structure of the futures market, but my personal
opinion is that a big hammer to the market by a well-heeled big player can force
liquidations, increase losses, and push the momentum of the market much lower than
the initial impetus would have. Thus, after a huge impact like we saw on April 12, the
market will continue with enough momentum that a well-timed exit of a huge set of
short positions can provide profits to the well-heeled market mover.
Moving from theory to practice, one of the most important things to keep your eye on is
the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which is issued every Friday. It details the
long and the short positions of three categories of traders. The first category is called
"commercials." They are dealers in the physical precious metals – for example, gold
miners. The second category is called "non-commercials." They include hedge funds and
large commercial banks like JP Morgan. Non-commercials are sometimes called "large
speculators." The rest are the small traders, called "non-reporting" since they are not
required to identify themselves. The ones to watch are the large speculators (non-
commercials), as they tend to move with the direction of the market. Individual entities
could be long or short, but in combination the net position of the group is a key indicator.
The following chart shows the price of gold as a blue line at the top, and the next panel
down shows the net position of these large speculators as a black line. You can see that
over the long term, they move together. When the net speculative position is above zero,
this group is betting on rising gold prices. Of course, the reverse is true when it's below
zero. In this 20-year view, the large speculators were holding net negative positions
during the lowest point of the gold price, around the year 2000. As the price of gold rose,
their positions went net long, and they profited.
An interesting thing about the chart above is that the increasing amount of net longs
reversed itself before gold peaked in 2011, suggesting that these large speculators
became slightly less bullish all the way back in 2010. The balance remains net long, but
it remains to be seen how long that lasts.
What is not so obvious is that these large speculators are so big that they can affect the
market as well as profit from it; when they initiate massive positions in a bull market,
they drive the price of the futures contracts even higher. Similarly, when they remove
their positions or actually go short, they can push the market lower.
So what happened a week ago was that a massive order to sell 400 tonnes of gold all at
once hit the market. Within minutes the price plummeted, and over a two-day period
resulted in the largest drop of the price for futures delivery of gold in 33 years: down
$200 per ounce.
We don't have the name of the entity that did this. However, the way the gold was sold
all at once suggests that the goal was not to get the best price. An investor with a
position of this size should have been smart enough to use sensible trading tactics,
issuing much smaller sell orders over a period of time. This would avoid swamping the
market; and some of the orders would be filled at higher prices and thus generate more
profit. Placing a sell order big enough to affect the overall market price suggests that
someone with powerful backing wanted to drive the price of gold down.
Such an entity could have been a large speculator who already had a sizable short
position and could gain by unloading some of its short position once the market
momentum had driven the price even yet lower. Or it could be a central bank – one that
might be happy to have the gold price move lower, as it would provide cover for its
printing of more new money. Of course, it could be some entity that owned long
contracts and wanted to get out of the position all at once. We don't know, but this kind
of activity, resulting in the biggest drop in 30 years, raises more than just suspicion
when we consider how important the price of gold is to many markets around the globe.
Can markets really be influenced by big players? Well, was the LIBOR rate accurately
reported by huge banks? Have players ever tried to corner markets? The answer to all
the above, unfortunately, is yes.
There's an even bigger problem with the legal structure of the futures market: even the
segregated funds on deposit can be pilfered by the broker for the brokerage's other
obligations. That is what happened to MF Global customers under Mr. Corzine. (I had an
account with a predecessor company called Man Financial – the "MF" in the name. I also
had an account with Refco, which is now defunct. Fortunately, the daggers did not hit my
account, since I was not a holder when the catastrophes occurred.) My take: the futures
market is dangerous, and not a place for beginners.
One last note: after the Bankruptcy Act of 2005, the regulations support the brokers, not
the investors, when there are questions of legality about losses in individual investment
accounts. Casey Research will be producing a report with much more detail on this
subject in the near future.
So, what now? We aren't going to see a secret memo – no smoking gun to confirm that
what happened on April 13 was an attempt to affect the market. Still, the evidence is
suspicious. When big entities can gain from putting on big positions, the incentives are
big enough for them to try – LIBOR, Plunge Protection Team, Whale Trade, etc., all
support this view.
Physical Gold
Previously, there was little difference between the physical and paper markets for gold.
Yes, there were premiums and delivery charges, but everybody regarded the futures
market as the base quote. I believe this is changing; people don't trust the paper market
as they used to.
Instead of capitulating to fear of greater losses, the demand for physical gold has hit
new records. The US Mint sold a record 63,500 ounces – a whopping 2 tonnes – of gold
on April 17 alone, bringing the total sales for the month to 147,000 ounces; that's more
than the previous two months combined. Indian markets, which are more oriented to
physical metal, now have a premium of US$150 over the futures price in Chicago.
Demand at coin dealers has increased as the price has dropped. And premiums are much
bigger than they were as recently as a week ago.
Here is a vendor page that quotes purchase prices and calculates the premiums on an
ongoing basis. It shows premiums of 50% and more in many cases. On eBay, prices for
one-ounce silver coins are $33 to $35, where the futures price is quoted as $23. A look
on Friday April 19 shows one vendor out of stock on most items:
Clearly, the physical gold market today is sending different signals than the paper
market.
The Case for Gold Is Still with Us
The long-term fundamental reasons to hold gold are undeniably still with us. The central
banks of the world are acting in concert in "currency wars" or "the race to debase." As
they print more money, the purchasing power of each unit declines. They are caught
between the rock of having to keep interest rates low to support their governments'
huge deficits and the hard place of the long-term effect of diluting their currency. If rates
rise, even First World governments will be forced to pay higher interest fees, leading to
loss of confidence in their ability to pay back their debt, which will bring on a sovereign
debt crisis like what we have seen in the PIIGS or Argentina recently.
The following chart shows the rapid growth in the balance sheets as a ratio to GDP for
the three largest central banks. I've extrapolated the expected growth into the future
based on the rate at which they propose to buy up assets. One could argue about how
long these growth rates will continue, but the incentives are all there for all central
banks to bail out their governments and their commercial banks. I fully expect the
printing game to continue to provide the fuel for hard-asset investments like gold and
silver to increase in price in the years to come.
Buying Opportunity or Time to Flee?
So what does it all mean? The paper price of gold crashed to $1,325 in the wake of this
huge trade. It is now hovering around $1,400. My first reaction is to suggest that this is
only an aberration, and that the fundamentals of the depreciating value of paper
currencies will eventually take the price of gold much higher, making it a buying
opportunity. But what I can't predict is whether big players might again deliver short-
term downturns to the market. The momentum in the futures market can make swings
surprisingly larger than the fundamentals of currency valuation would suggest.
Traders will be looking for a significant turnaround to the upside in price before entering
long positions. However, a long-term, fundamentals-based trader has to look at the low
price as a buying opportunity. I can't prove it, but I think the fundamentals will drive the
long-term market more than these short-term events. The fight between pricing from
the physical market for bullion and that from the "paper market" of futures is showing
signs of discrimination and disagreement, as the physical market is booming, while
prices set by futures are seemingly pressured to go nowhere.
In short, I think this is a strong buying opportunity.
Bud Conrad, 24 Apr '13
Bud Conrad holds a Bachelor of Engineering degree from Yale and an MBA from
Harvard. He has held positions with IBM, CDC, Amdahl, and Tandem. Currently, he
serves as a local board member of the National Association of Business Economics and
teaches graduate courses in investing at Golden Gate University. Mr. Conrad, a futures
investor for 25 years and a full-time investor for a decade, is also a regular lecturer for
American Association of Individual Investors.
As a senior researcher for Casey Research, LLC., he produces original research and
analysis for the International Speculator.
The 'Real' Gold Price - 24 April 2013
How the fundamentals drive gold...
THERE HAS been some media piling-on since the recent hard breakdown in gold,writes
Gary Tanashian in his Notes from the Rabbit Hole.
The aptly named Howard Gold explains: "Gold's price could be headed much, much
lower".
This was written on April 18, when the value assigned to the monetary relic (AKA its
nominal price) resided at $1391 per ounce. So be warned, Mr. Gold advises that gold
could go much much lower. Gold bugs take heed; Mr. Gold himself has put the double
'much' whammy on you!
After critical support at $1524 was lost our first downside target of $1440 or so was
sawn through like Balsa Wood. Okay fine. For those who micro manage every tick in the
price of gold (I am not one), then here is the situation; the current little rebound must
extend back up to and through the broken support level at $1440 or the next target in
the low $1200s is up next.
Now on to the fundamentals, courtesy of Mr. Gold:
"But gold's price could be headed much, much lower, said Campbell Harvey, a professor
at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University. Harvey has looked at gold prices
over the centuries, and concludes that it's still trading at lofty multiples of inflation."
In the article linked above there is another link where you can download the research of
Mr. Harvey and colleague Claude Erb – currently making the rounds like a good gold bug
horror movie – that talks about gold's 'real' price as measured by CPI and GDP. Boiling it
all down, gold is historically over valued as compared to measures of the effects of
inflation – which I define as a rising money supply – on consumer prices and relative to
GDP.
We will steer clear of the debate about government number fudging, because it is a
battle that is not necessary. The Federal Reserve and many of its counterparts around
the globe are inflating, or trying their damnedest to inflate. They are using debt
instruments to create money out of nowhere and pumping it into big banks, which are
supposedly expected to release the money out to the public.
This could one day manifest in an out of control inflation problem (as measured by the
lagging effects that Harvey and Erb call inflation, or resolve into a more intense
deflationary phase as the thing that is just a whiff now gains momentum and swallows
the entire spectrum of inflated assets in one big gulp of illiquidity.
The economy has depended on inflationary policy since the age of Inflation on Demand
began under Alan Greenspan's oversight in and around 2000.
Ask yourself this; why are they inflating? Why are they printing money at a furious pace
if the GDP is real and sustainable? The answer is likely because they know that the
financial system is a leveraged thing that must not be allowed to start deflating because
if it starts deleveraging, it is not going to stop until the books are cleared.
The authors noted above measure gold's 'real' price in CPI and GDP. Here we have
always measured it relative to the commodity complex, which is generally positively
correlated to the global economy. Below is gold vs. the CCI commodity index.
I had originally thought that a decline to the lower moving average would come with a
continued economic bump, stock bull market and inflation-fueled commodity bounce. But
instead, gold has tanked vs. commodities even as a deflationary pull starts to take hold
with signs of economic deceleration, commodities down and the stock market potentially
in some kind of a topping process.
Yet the 'real' price is still in a secular uptrend because the ratio has held above another
parameter point we noted as important. If the blue arrow is confirmed by turning green
one day, the message will continue to be a secular era of economic contraction, which
has thus far been fought tooth and nail by inflationary policy. That is and has been the
case for gold since day one. Not the case most gold bugs root for, which is inflationary
effects, the likes of which are used as data points by Harvey and Erb. See?
Of course Harvey and Erb scare the gold "community" because a majority of the
"community" sees gold as a hedge against higher prices. If the above chart breaks down
and makes a lower low to the spring of 2011 (the height of the last commodity/inflation
blowout) then we may have to admit Bernanke wins, Draghi wins, BoJ, China Central
Planning and all other inflators win. They will have managed to create sustainable
economies literally out of thin air.
The alternative to that is hyperinflation, where an asset grab of epic proportions could
engage with gold underperforming things you can actually eat, keep warm with and use
for fuel. This asset grab would come out of a debased monetary system.
More realistically however, we might look for the real price of gold to gain support in its
secular uptrend. This would see economic contraction and by extension, further decline
in commodities and stock markets. We have noted all along that the nominal gold price
can decline in this environment, so people should know why they own the thing. Also,
getting out of the 'Death of the Dollar' cult might be wise as well.
The US Dollar, as long as implied confidence in our leaders remains intact, may be pulled
upward with the real price of gold as a contraction phase bites harder. This is the world's
reserve currency in which a majority of global transactions are settled. As long as this
remains the case, there will be claims on Uncle Buck. USD, as of the moment, is liquidity
within the system. Gold by the way, is liquidity outside the system.
The average gold bug's worst enemy is the inflation tout. It is not the government or the
big banks. It is the individual's expectations of a lump of shiny metal. If they have not
gotten this simple concept yet, after the recent damage, I am afraid they will never get
it. And they will puke up their gold, which failed to protect them from the dreaded
inflation that wasn't.
The "dreaded inflation" is measured in the mainstream by prices (CPI, etc.), not policy-
making actions. Gold is a barometer and the pressure it would indicate could be
inflationary or deflationary.
If one day you see the gold price skyrocket, then be prepared for a coming (lagging)
inflation problem that would indeed eventually show up in prices. This could propel
commodities, resources, productive economies and even stock markets to new heights.
If on the other hand gold just hangs around or declines, yet the 'real' price as measured
in commodities rises again, the backdrop would be one of continued economic
contraction and declining asset prices.
The third alternative is the least likely; gold hangs around or declines and yet the 'real'
price loses its secular uptrend. This would indicate a sustainable economic expansion,
created by inflationary policy has engaged. Thus far, inflationary policy has served to
build in distortions that subject the system to extreme liquidations. That right there is
the continuing case for gold – and for the time being I might add – cash, lots of it.
Gary Tanashian, 24 Apr '13
Gary Tanashian successfully owned and operated a progressive medical component
manufacturing company for 21 years, through various economic cycles. This experience
gave Gary an understanding of and appreciation for global macroeconomics as it relates
to individual markets and sectors. Along the way, Gary developed an almost geek-like
interest in technical analysis (TA), to add to a long-time interest in human psychology.
Various unique macro market ratio indicators were also added to the mix, with the result
being a financial market newsletter, Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH) that combines
these attributes.
Panic and chaos management? No just plain good common-
sense investment:
Trade smart, not with Greed
Pierre A Pienaar
Resources for the Independent Trader Blog
http://sulia.com/pierreapienaar/
Pierre A Pienaar retired in 2011 from business.
I would like to share my passion, my interests, knowledge & experiences in Forex,
Options, Gold Investments, Futures, Stocks, Binary Options, Economics, Stamp
Collection, Sports, Gardening, Reading, Photography, and Politics
Substantial risk of loss
There is a substantial risk of loss of stocks, forex, commodities, futures, options,
and foreign equities are substantial.
You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you
in light of your financial condition. You should read, understand, and consider
the Risk Disclosure Statement that is provided by your broker before you
consider trading.

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Independent Trader Blog Resources on Gold Price Movements

  • 1. Resources for the Independent Trader Blog Zurich gold: 0.015kg @ €35,677/kg [7:14:11 AM WAT] London gold: 0.139kg @ £30,290/kg [7:13:18 AM WAT] Dear Reader, This report is a collection from various well-respected writers, and would give you an insight what has happened to gold the last week or so. There are different views, and could be confusing for a investor/trader how to react towards gold, buy or sell. My own opinion was and is till the same: “If you want a solid assets and be save, and not end up under the water- then buy physical gold bullion like the smart central banks and investors are. Ask yourself this question. Has any paper currency ever survived its use as a store of value?” Download, read and act wisely. Please forward to your colleagues, friends, whom ever you know. -----------
  • 2. Jeff Christian: “The Reason Gold Prices Fell So Hard” And why does the US Mint struggle to meet silver coin demand...? FOUNDER of CPM Group and frequent market commentator Jeffrey Christian explains the triggers behind heavy selling of gold last week and why there really isn't a silver shortage at the US Mint in this interview with Hard Assets Investor. Hard Assets Investor: What was the catalyst behind last week's historic downward moves in gold? Jeff Christian: There were two big groups selling. One was what we call "nervous longs," people who were still long gold and silver. They had bought it because monetary accommodations could be hyperinflationary and Europe and the banks were going to collapse. None of that stuff has been happening. And the price of gold had come from $1,900 to $1,600 to $1,550, and they're saying, "Gee, maybe all these gurus are wrong, because there's no hyperinflation." The other group was "emboldened shorts." Even before last week, even before April, if you go and look at the Commitment of Traders reports from March 26, you had a sharp increase in February and March of gross short positions on the Comex gold and silver contracts. For 12 years these guys said, "I'm not so foolish as to short gold." But they had been willing in the first quarter of this year to build up short positions sizes not seen since the bear market of 1990s. So you had a lot of people who were more and more willing to go short gold in the expectation of lower prices already. Then on Friday you had the price just sort of pancake down, dropping below $1,530, which brought in a round of sell orders both from nervous longs and fresh short selling. That took the price below $1,500 where another round of [sell] orders cascaded in. And it was just like stories of a building cascading— pancaking on top of each other. HAI: How have the last few days changed your view, if at all, on not just gold itself, but also in regard to your price range of between $1,400 and $1,700? Do you feel that needs to be adjusted? Jeff Christian: We had been using $1,700, $1,750 as a high just on the idea that there could be an outlier. We were saying we didn't think it would necessarily get there. And really, the last couple days have basically reaffirmed our view pretty much. But the big change is that those highs that we were thinking were possible are probably even less possible now than they were back then. HAI: Is the gold market too volatile for investors right now? Jeff Christian: It really depends on the investor. Today [Tuesday, April 16] has been a very constructive day. The question facing investors is: Is today a dead-cat bounce or the buyback? We're waiting to see the data, but our gut feeling is that what you're seeing right now is that the last two days were so intense in terms of the selling because the weak hands reflected that nervous-long position, and they probably sold. Similarly, the shorts have probably built up as large of a short position as they dare take. When I say "dare," you have to understand two other things. It's not just what they dare to take; it's what their banks will allow them to hold given the fact that they use borrowed money. It also has to do with the margins. If you were going to short silver at
  • 3. $28 and now it's $22 or $23 and the margins are rising, you've got to say, "Well, what's my risk/reward ratio? Maybe I should buy back some of these shorts." Investors ask, "What will turn the price around?" The answer is the cessation of price flowing. Because as soon as the price stops flowing, you'll see some of those shorts liquidating, which will cause the price to rise, and you'll also see bargain-hunting. You're seeing some of that today, and our gut feeling, without having the data confirm it, is that we may see that continuing. Yesterday [Monday, April 15] probably saw the lows for gold and silver, and the prices could rise maybe to $1,400 or $1,450 for gold, and maybe $25.50 or $26.50 for silver in short order. HAI: Do you think that the maturity of the gold ETF market has added a new dynamic to the way the gold price moves? Jeff Christian: ETF holdings have done two things to gold. One is that it's made it a lot easier to buy and sell. It's a simple click of a button. You don't have a manager on the other side of that button. I've seen it in the futures market where banks can assure producers, "Yes, we can handle 400,000 ounces of gold." And so the producer says "Fine, I want to sell 400,000 ounces of gold." And the bank says, "Well, we've got to work this order." But with the ETF, no one is saying, "I've got to work this order." It's like, "No, I'm selling 400,000 ounces now." That gold goes off into the system and it cannot be denied. Then it increases the volatility and the prospect for sharp moves on both sides of price. And the other thing is that the ETFs provide a daily reckoning of physical-investor buying, at least for a small portion of the physical market. You always have daily futures and options data, but there's never been a good measure of how much gold is being bought or sold on a daily basis in the physical market. Now, the ETF is still a small portion of the total physical market. Most of the gold is bought in China and India, in the Middle East, and it's not bought through ETFs. So you still don't get 80-85 percent of the gold market reflected, but you have at least a measure. And I guess that is bad and good: a) You have a measure; b) You have a measure that's not necessarily reflective of the total market. But in the absence of a good measure of the total market, a lot of investors will rely on it as a reflection. So it's a bad barometer, but a measure nonetheless. HAI: George Soros floated the idea this past month that gold has disappointed the public in the sense of its safe-haven qualities. Do you agree with that? Jeff Christian: I don't think gold has changed its attributes in terms of its uses for investors. I always am very cautious to say that I'm disagreeing with George, because I think George is probably more often misunderstood when he makes public comments, especially about gold, than wrong. And one of the points that he was making was that what we've seen is the gold prices come off—for example in late 2008 into early 2009— and that, as such, maybe it wasn't as great of a safe haven. My view of gold through history is that it does several things for investors. It is a store value, it's a safe haven, it's a portfolio diversifier, but it's also a source of liquidity in times of emergencies and crises. And it's always been. It's done that during World War II, World War I, the Napoleonic Wars and it did that in 2008. The price will come off when you get to a point where people all of a sudden need cash, and they liquidate their gold to get at their cash.
  • 4. In 1997, during the Asian currency crisis, the people who really survived in Thailand were the people who still owned gold. The Thai Baht sold 70 percent against the Dollar in a very short period of time. Those businesspeople who had been doing very well prior to 1997 and converting their wealth into Dollars and Deutschmark and other currencies and investing on a leverage basis of building new factories were crushed. Those people who did that, but kept some of their money in gold, did OK, because the gold price went up 70 percent against the Thai baht. They actually wound up buying the factories that other people were selling in distress. Gold has always provided liquidity in times of stress. Investors shouldn't be disappointed if gold does its job. Investors imbue too much expectation in gold and then they get disappointed. HAI: What is one of the most important metrics that you watch for in gold? Jeff Christian: We have a proprietary program to develop estimates of supply and demand, and investment demand. We pay a tremendous amount of attention to investment-demand flows. We really want to know what investors are doing. ETFs only represent a small portion of the total gold market. So you can't just look at ETFs and say, "Well, this is what gold investors are doing. But what we do is we try to be in continual conversation with gold market participants around the world—India, China, the Middle East, Europe, the United States—so that we can get a sense of what investors are doing. Sometimes it's anecdotal information. So for example, a week after the Lunar New Year, the gold price fell sharply. One of the reasons was that the sales to investors of gold during the Lunar New Year were disappointing. You had a lot of bullion dealers in China who had stocked up gold inventory in anticipation of very strong sales during the holiday period. The sales didn't materialize, and a lot of their clients were bad-mouthing gold's price prospects. So when the dealers came back, they unloaded their inventories. They don't have gold options there, so they don't have an effective way to hedge their inventory. These guys were long and exposed, and they were seeing weaker investor sales, so they sold gold. HAI: Does that include jewelry demand? Jeff Christian: One of the problems we have is trying to decipher aggregate-investment demand from gold jewelry. You can to some extent, but there's clearly overlap. In China and India, you find a lot of gold statues and decorative objects, little trinkets made out of gold. On the one hand, they're jewelry or decorative objects, but on the other hand, they're investment demand. So you can talk about the purchase of gold in bars and coins and medallions, but you also have to pay attention to some of the jewelry demand, simply because some of it is quasi-investment. HAI: What are some of the best reasons to sell gold? Or are you a buy-and-hold gold philosopher? Jeff Christian: I am a gold agnostic. One of the reasons people would sell gold is because they expect the price to fall. Then you say, "Well, why would you expect the price of gold to fall?" If you see a sharp diminution in the amount of economic and financial uncertainty in the world, that's a good reason to sell gold. Another thing to pay attention to is an increase in gold supply. And the third thing goes back to that first one: if you see investors pulling back from the market. One of the metrics that we use, that I didn't mention earlier, is that we pay attention to the premia
  • 5. that are available for American Eagle gold coins and Canadian Maple Leaf coins. When investors get negative on gold's immediate price prospects, they'll actually pull back from buying Eagles, or in some cases, sell Eagles and the premiums will fall. Over the last 18 months, we've watched the premia very closely. When the price spiked down to $1,530 or $1,540, the premia shot up, which tells you that investors are buying gold at those dips. And then when the price would shoot up—as it did three times in late 2011 through 2012—to $1,780 or $1,790 or $1,800 an ounce, you would see the premia fall, which would tell you investors at least are not buying, and in fact they may be selling gold coins. So that's a good metric. HAI: Silver production continues to grow despite falling prices. What is really driving silver production? And is there a point where, as with natural gas, the producers are going to say, "We need the price to be higher for us to continue to do this profitably"? Jeff Christian: The short answer is mine production's rising because the price of silver is sharply higher. Silver traded between $4.50 and $5.50 for most of the period from the late 1980s until 2005. There were a lot of properties that were not profitable to mine or develop at $5.50 an ounce that are now profitable. And so you're seeing production rise as a result of that. Now costs are rising too, but these guys still have on average a pretty good margin. There were some producers that were very high priced, and are really at risk with the price coming down now to $26 and $27 an ounce. If the price continues to fall, there are some guys who are at risk. But the vast majority of the producers are very profitable even at $20 an ounce. So I think that you'll see that production continue to rise for the next several years. HAI: Since we have this growing production, why does the US Mint continually run out of silver for its coins? Jeff Christian: I don't know the Mint's operations as intimately as I knew in the '80s and '90s when we were advising them. But the Mint doesn't run out of silver; it runs out of silver blanks. And I think that that's the key. You have to understand that to have silver inventories tied up in blanks and in struck coins waiting to sell is very costly. The Mint tries to minimize the amount of money it has tied up in working inventories. And that's why they keep running short. A lot of companies built capacity to make blanks and rounds and small bars in the 1980s because of the run-up in demand and prices then. By the late 1980s, no one was buying that silver, they were selling it back to the market and these guys were writing off their factories. So when you saw the price started to rise again in 2005/2006, what you saw were a lot of people who make small investment products saying, "I'm not going to make that same mistake again, and build up manufacturing capacity for something that could be gone in 24 months." Well, it's been six years now and it's not gone. Some companies have given in and they've built up capacity, so there is more capacity now than there was in 2008 when they really had problems sourcing blanks. But it's a matter of very cautious businesspeople in the blanking business saying, "I'm not sure I want to build up capacity for something that could go away for the next 20 years the way it did last time." And the Mint is saying, "We don't want to necessarily build up inventories here and then investors turn off their demand for silver." Hard Assets Investor, 22 Apr '13
  • 6. Hardassetsinvestor.com is a research-oriented website devoted to sharing ideas about investing in the natural resources sector. Published by Van Eck Associates Corporation, the site offers an educational resource for both individual and institutional investors interested in learning more about commodity equities, commodity futures, and gold – the three major components of the hard assets marketplace. Is Gold as an Investment Finished? Before delving deeper into that question, perhaps we should see what the mainstream media thinks. In fairness to the MSM, we note there are plenty of articles on both sides of the debate. Yet there has been some media piling-on since the recent hard breakdown in gold. The aptly named Howard Gold explains: The Case for Owning Gold Has Collapsed; Yellow metal could be headed much, much lower . Gold could be headed not much lower, but much much lower. This was written on April 18, when the value assigned to the monetary relic (AKA its nominal price) resided at $1391 per ounce. So be warned, Mr. Gold advises that gold could go much much lower. Gold bugs take heed; Mr. Gold himself has put the double ‘much’ whammy on you! After critical support at 1524 was lost our first downside target of 1440 or so was sawn through like Balsa Wood. Okay fine. For those who micro manage every tick in the price of gold (I am not one), then here is the situation; the current little rebound must extend back up to and through the broken support level at 1440 or the next target in the low 1200’s is up next. See the weekly chart on page 3, which was produced 5 weeks ago in NFTRH 230. While not a favored outcome, recent events with gold’s price are not surprising.
  • 7. To review, the two potential points to watch for in the event of a breakdown from 1524 were the weekly EMA 200, which supported the 2008 decline and then the conservative measurement from the pattern breakdown, which is in the low 1200’s, which also includes a visual support shelf from 2010. The less conservative measurement (the top at 1900 to 1524) would target around 1150. So that is the price picture, now on to the fundamentals courtesy of Mr. Gold. From the article linked above: “But gold’s price could be headed much, much lower, said Campbell Harvey, a professor at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University. Harvey has looked at gold prices over the centuries, and concludes that it’s still trading at lofty multiples of inflation.” In the article linked above there is another link where you can download the research of Mr. Harvey and colleague Claude Erb – currently making the rounds like a good gold bug horror movie – that talks about gold’s “real” price as measured by CPI and GDP. Boiling it all down, gold is historically over valued as compared to measures of the effects of inflation on consumer prices and relative to GDP. We will steer clear of the debate about government number fudging, because it is a battle that is not necessary. The Federal Reserve and many of its counterparts around the globe are inflating, or trying their damnedest to inflate. They are using debt instruments to create money out of nowhere and pumping it into big banks, which are supposedly expected to release the money out to the public. This could one day manifest in an out of control inflation problem (as measured by the lagging effects that Harvey and Erb call inflation, or resolve into a more intense
  • 8. deflationary phase as the thing that is just a whiff now gains momentum and swallows the entire spectrum of inflated assets in one big gulp of illiquidity. The economy has depended on inflationary policy since the age of Inflation on Demand began under Alan Greenspan’s oversight in and around 2000. Ask yourself this; why are they inflating? Why are they printing money at a furious pace if the GDP is real and sustainable? The answer is likely because they know that the financial system is a leveraged thing that must not be allowed to start deflating because if it starts deleveraging, it is not going to stop until the books are cleared. Gold vs. Commodities, What is the Message? The authors noted above measure gold’s ‘real’ price in CPI and GDP. Here we have always measured it relative to the commodity complex, which is generally positively correlated to the global economy. Above is gold vs. the CCI commodity index. I had originally thought that a decline to the lower moving average would come with a continued economic bump, stock bull market and inflation-fueled commodity bounce. But instead, gold has tanked vs. commodities even as a deflationary pull starts to take hold with signs of economic deceleration, commodities down and the stock market potentially in some kind of a topping process. Yet the ‘real’ price is still in a secular uptrend because the ratio has held above another parameter point we noted as important. If the blue arrow is confirmed by turning green one day, the message will continue to be a secular era of economic contraction, which has thus far been fought tooth and nail by inflationary policy. That is and has been the
  • 9. case for gold since day one. Not the case most gold bugs root for, which is inflationary effects, the likes of which are used as data points by Harvey and Erb. See? Of course Harvey and Erb scare the gold “community” because a majority of the “community” sees gold as a hedge against higher prices. If the above chart breaks down and makes a lower low to the spring of 2011 (the height of the last commodity/inflation blowout) then we may have to admit Bernanke wins, Draghi wins, BoJ, China Central Planning and all other inflators win. They will have managed to create sustainable economies literally out of thin air. The alternative to that is hyperinflation, where an asset grab of epic proportions could engage with gold under performing things you can actually eat, keep warm with and use for fuel. This asset grab would come out of a debased monetary system. More realistically however, we might look for the real price of gold to gain support in its secular uptrend. This would see economic contraction and by extension, further decline in commodities and stocks markets. We have noted all along that the nominal gold price can decline in this environment, so people should know why they own the thing. Also, getting out of the ‘death of the dollar’ cult might be wise as well. The USD, as long as implied confidence in our leaders remains intact, may be pulled upward with the real price of gold as a contraction phase bites harder. This is the world’s reserve currency in which a majority of global transactions are settled. As long as this remains the case, there will be claims on Uncle Buck. USD, as of the moment, is liquidity within the system. Gold by the way, is liquidity outside the system. The average gold bug’s worst enemy is… the inflation tout. It is not the government or the big banks. It is the individual’s expectations of a lump of shiny metal. If they have not gotten this simple concept yet, after the recent damage, I am afraid they will never get it. And they will puke up their gold, which failed to protect them from the dreaded inflation that wasn’t. Bottom Line The “dreaded inflation” is measured in the mainstream by prices (CPI, etc.), not policy- making actions. Gold is a barometer and the pressure it would indicate could be inflationary or deflationary. If one day you see the gold price skyrocket, then be prepared for a coming (lagging) inflation problem that would indeed eventually show up in prices. This could propel commodities, resources, productive economies and even stock markets to new heights.
  • 10. If on the other hand gold just hangs around or declines, yet the ‘real’ price as measured in commodities rises again, the backdrop would be one of continued economic contraction and declining asset prices. The third alternative is the least likely; gold hangs around or declines and yet the ‘real’ price loses its secular uptrend. This would indicate a sustainable economic expansion, created by inflationary policy has engaged. Thus far, inflationary policy has served to build in distortions that subject the system to extreme liquidations. That right there is the continuing case for gold – and for the time being I might add – cash, lots of it. Okay now, that’s the theory. I have got a technical report to write, so lets get to it. NFTRH 235 then goes on to review the technical pictures of the precious metals, precious metals stocks, commodities and stock markets in an unbiased manner. This has kept the analysis on the right side of the markets throughout recent dynamic events. If you would like a hard-working service that does whatever it takes to be prepared for what the market throws at us, consider a subscription to NFTRH. Source: Watch Todays 1pm Market Update Portfolio Manager Greg Orrell: 'My Belief in Gold Has Not Wavered' april 25, 2013 The Gold Report: How has your bullish view on the gold sector evolved as a series of crises has jolted both the international stock market and the price of gold? Greg Orrell: First off, my belief in gold as a monetary asset has not wavered. Japan basically admitted that it is bankrupt with its intention to aggressively debase its currency. Normally such actions would invoke, and may still, a race to the bottom as each country engages in economic warfare to deal with its debt issues. At this juncture the fear of global deflation among the G7 crowd remains its worst nightmare, especially as additional stimulus by the Federal Reserve is showing diminishing returns. With high debt levels in both the private and public sectors around the world, stimulating economic growth is proving elusive. These alarming events are setting the stage for the next leg up in the dollar gold price, in my opinion. The fiscal and monetary crisis is ongoing and underscores the necessity of owning gold assets. Though agonizing, the past 18 months have been nothing more than a consolidation for gold from the September 2011 highs of $1,900/ounce ($1,900/oz). The recent decline in gold prices below $1,500/oz is not the end of the bull market in gold, despite the
  • 11. barrage of negative commentary by those wanting to dance on gold's grave. The destruction of currencies is in full bloom, but it is not a straight line. The problem for many gold investors is that they can see the endgame. Gold prices rise in a straight line at the end of a monetary system, but we are not there yet. It takes some patience to hold the course while the establishment fights tooth and nail to keep the dollar system from failing. TGR: The years 2009 and 2010 were better for gold stocks. Can you talk about how things changed after that and how investors can best respond to the precipitous drop in market value? GO: A number of factors go into the poor performance of the gold shares over the past couple of years besides the gold price. We have seen investor rotation out of defensive posturing and then the gold miners ended up being their own worst enemy. Gold share investors became concerned, and rightfully so, with rising operating and capital costs, poor capital allocation and growing resource nationalization. This in turn made bullion exchange-traded fund (ETF) products more attractive and prompted a trend of shorting the miners versus long gold positions. Let's look at the world's largest producer, Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX:TSX; ABX:NYSE). It incurred cost overruns at the Pascua-Lama project in Latin America. And it overpaid for a copper asset in Africa after spinning off its African gold assets a couple of years earlier. Each of these instances led to contraction of cash flow and net asset value multiples for the whole sector, and set a theme for the industry. At this point, the pendulum has swung too far, with the shares basically discounting everything that could go wrong and more. Therefore, if an investor is not in the gold sector, now is an opportune time to take advantage of the significant decline in share values as there are signs of positive change taking place within the sector. TGR: Can you provide any insight as to why longer-term investors, and also new gold investors, should buy into the current gold market? GO: The rationale for owning gold assets remains simple: global deterioration of sovereign credit and a growing need to debase currencies in order to meet future obligations, whether it's here in the U.S., Europe or Japan. The policy of socializing risk with monetary and fiscal policy has destroyed the balance sheets of the Western world. We are in a phase of experimental central banking, which I believe is going to end badly due to the dislocations of capital it has caused through prolonged periods of negative rates.
  • 12. In the event economic growth were to take hold, an unleashing of built up reserves in the system would set off inflation with a corresponding rise in rates. Just imagine the effect of a change in the direction of interest rates and the collateral damage that will create in the bond markets and the interest rate derivative markets after all of these years of managing a zero interest rate policy. The cost of funding the U.S. deficit will rise exponentially. More quantitative easing begets more quantitative easing. Investors need to have some type of asset to balance their portfolios. Policymakers who got us into this mess are unlikely to navigate us out of it. History tells us that only gold is a good place to be. TGR: Is now a good time to be looking at the gold miners, including the juniors? "The recent decline in gold prices is not the end of the bull market." GO: Absolutely. With current sentiment negative on the miners, it is an incredible opportunity to buy gold shares and recapture lost value. A major problem for the mining industry is that its business model is flawed. Gold investors are not strictly interested in taking money from one hole in the ground and putting it in another. Investors want participation in cash flow through dividends and earnings leverage to higher gold prices along with the potential for increased shareholder value through discovery . Not paying dividends was great for management, geologists, engineers and everyone but the investor who was locked out of the cash flow. Now falling share prices have put the onus on management to compete with the ETFs for investor dollars. A number of CEOs are being shown the door. Marginal projects are being shelved. Dividends are increasing. Management is beginning to understand that the needs of shareholders must be prioritized. Granted, the decline has been painful, but in my 30 years in the business, this is exactly what needed to happen. TGR: Has the balance in your portfolio between bullion, large caps, mid caps, small caps, ETFs, royalties and cash changed over the last five years? GO: Because production is cheap, we are weighting toward the large- and mid-cap producers. They are poised to recapture value as sentiment turns around in that space. The smaller, macro-cap exploration and development companies are bombed out, and a number of companies are trading where market cap per resource ounce is down to $10 or lower. Those companies are interesting as long as they have a balance sheet and they're not diluting their shares to keep the lights on. Royalty companies have outperformed along with bullion over the last five years because of all the negative factors that I mentioned previously. But I'm not adding to the royalty companies right now because the operating companies offer better value.
  • 13. TGR: You're not adding to bullion? GO: Not at this time. We're keeping bullion around 56%. The miners, in my opinion, offer tremendous value at this point with gold reserves in the ground. TGR: Who are some of the companies you think are attractive in the middle and small spaces? GO: Endeavour Mining Corp. (EDV:TSX; EVR:ASX) is interesting right here. The share price has been washed out because it is a higher-cost producer, around $900/oz. Its market cap is down to under $400 million ($400M) with 300,000 oz (300 Koz) of annual production in West Africa, but is slated to grow to 450 Koz over the next couple of years. That's a 50% increase. Endeavour is driving expansion mostly from internally generated cash flow. "In the past, the majors looked for big projects because they did not want to operate the smaller mines. Now they are focusing on grade and smaller projects that won't blow up the company." Esperanza Resources Corp. (EPZ:TSX.V) is cashed up with over $70M and with experienced management is developing a couple of attractive heap-leach projects in Mexico. One project can put up 35 Koz/year and another one can do 110 Koz/year. Pan American Silver Corp. (PAA:TSX; PAAS:NASDAQ) is a major shareholder. Esperanza could be an early day Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI:TSX). Avala Resources Ltd. (AVZ:TSX.V), 50% owned by Dundee Precious Metals Inc. (DPM:TSX), is trading down at dirt prices. The company has an entire Carlin-style belt tied up in Serbia where it has outlined close to 3 million ounces (3 Moz) so far. The company's market cap is $1215M, with $9M in the bank; it's not a bad optionthe market will appreciate the optionality value on the company's assets at some point. TGR: Are you a fan of the royalty model? GO: I am a fan of royalty companies. The revenue comes right off the top so royalty holders have no exposure to increases in costs and typically have exposure to increases in reserves. Royalty companies often acquire the royalties from the original property owners. Another form of royalty is the creation of a gold or silver stream: the royalty firm helps to finance the project and receives gold or silver in return. We have seen a pick up of companies selling either net smelter royalties or streaming deals on projects as a way to finance in a marketplace where equity capital has become expensive.
  • 14. TGR: Are there any royalty companies that people should be looking at? GO: We own a couple of the big ones in our portfolio Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD:NASDAQ; RGL:TSX) and Franco-Nevada Corp. (FNV:TSX; FNV:NYSE). We also own Silver Wheaton Corp. (SLW:TSX; SLW:NYSE). Sandstorm Gold Ltd. (SSL:TSX) is the up and coming player in the royalty space. It's a highly competitive business. Recently a number of junior companies have cobbled together questionable projects that most likely won't come into production in order to claim that they are royalty companies. Franco, Royal and Silver Wheaton have committed significant dollars to individual projects of late, which increases their risk profiles. However, with the diversification of their asset bases at this point, it should not be a problem with all three positioned to grow revenues substantially over the next three years. So overall I do like the royalty model. TGR: What is your take on pure-play gold producers? GO: I prefer pure-play gold producers, but those deposits are hard to find. Randgold Resources Ltd. (GOLD:NASDAQ; RRS:LSE)is a good example of a pure gold play, as are a number of other intermediates and juniors. But often base metals accompany gold. All of the major gold producers produce copper: Goldcorp Inc. (G:TSX; GG:NYSE), Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM:NYSE), Yamana Gold Inc. (YRI:TSX; AUY:NYSE; YAU:LSE), New Gold Inc. (NGD:TSX; NGD:NYSE.MKT) and Barrick. Production has been shelved in many big copper-gold porphyry deposits because it is so capital intensive. Consequently, we are more likely to see the smaller, pure gold projects go forward. In the past, the majors looked for big projects because they did not want to operate the smaller mines. Now they are focusing on grade and smaller projects that won't blow up the company. It may be smarter to take on 10 projects producing 150 Koz than to try and capitalize one project capable of producing 1.5 Moz. TGR: Do any particular firms come to mind in that area? GO: Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI:NYSE) out of South Africa says it is going to focus on smaller projects, around 150200 Koz. I've heard the same thing from Newmont. Management is not going to be punished for making a small acquisition versus a buy of $5 billion. The big buy days are not likely to return any time soon. Managements' excuse that it was difficult to manage multiple smaller assets rather than a couple of large ones has been cast aside as the large projects have shown to expose companies to too much risk. TGR: We both live in California where there's a history of gold mining, but current public awareness is limited. What the story?
  • 15. GO: There is gold in the Mother Lode Belt in Northern California, in Imperial County in Southern California and in Siskiyou County in far Northern California. The unemployment rate in those areas is pretty high, so the residents are open to mining's economic benefits. It is the outsiders who are up in arms about mining. Regulations have been put in place by a very staunch environmental crowd in California, but it's no different than what we see around the world where local residents are in favor of a mine because of its economic benefits, only to have the professional environmentalists come in and oppose the project. TGR: What junior gold miners in California are worthwhile? GO: One project that has the potential to turn mining around in California is the Sutter Gold Mining Inc. (SGM:TSX.V; OTCQX:SGMNF) start up of the Lincoln mine on the Mother Lode Belt in Amador County. It's a high-grade, underground mine that's financed by its 50% shareholder, the Rand Merchant Bank. The first 150200 feet (150200 ft) of that deposit is going to pay back the capital cost of building and developing the mine. The mines on either side of it historically produced down to 4,000 ft. Production will start off relatively low at about 22 Koz/year. But there are significant growth opportunities at the Lincoln mine and along the Mother Lode Belt for Sutter to exploit once it has established itself. I am very excited about its prospects. TGR: How do the California companies stack up against Nevada-based mining companies? GO: Atna Resources Ltd. (ATN:TSX) has a heap-leach mine down in Southern California that has been going for quite some time. New Gold has the old Mesquite mine, which is a heap-leach mine near the border of Mexico. But California has hardly any mining activity, or even exploration activity. So I would say it doesn't stack up at this point. TGR: Is that primarily because of environmental regulations or the political climate or the availability of gold? GO: The perceived difficult environmental and permitting climate in California has been a deterrent. If a company wants to do open-pit mining in California, it must be prepared to backfill the pit. That is not required in most places. TGR: How expensive is it to backfill? GO: Handling waste material can be quite expensive. So the real California-based opportunity is underground mining in the Mother Lode Belt and that also is where the higher-grade ore is.
  • 16. TGR: Maybe we'll see a replay of 1849. GO: We're not going to see a replay of 1849. What we'll see is a replay of the underground mines of between 1900 and 1940. Some of those were just great mines and were the blue chip companies of their day. The gold is still there. TGR: Thank you, Greg. Greg Orrell is the portfolio manager of the OCM Gold Fund. He is also president of Orrell Capital Management, the investment adviser to the fund. Orrell has over 28 years of experience in the gold sector as a retail and institutional broker, investment banker and portfolio manager. Want to read more Gold Report interviews like this? Sign up for our free e-newsletter, and you'll learn when new articles have been published. To see a list of recent interviews with industry analysts and commentators, visit our Streetwise Interviews page. DISCLOSURE: 1) Peter Byrne conducted this interview for The Gold Report and provides services to The Gold Report as an independent contractor. He or his family own shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: None. 2) The following companies mentioned in the interview are sponsors of The Gold Report: Royal Gold Inc., Franco-Nevada Corp. and Goldcorp Inc. Streetwise Reports does not accept stock in exchange for its services or as sponsorship payment. 3) Greg Orrell: I or my family own shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: Endeavour Mining Corp., Avala Resources Ltd., Esperanza Resources Corp., Newmont Mining Corp., New Gold Inc., Sutter Gold Inc., Randgold Resources Ltd., Royal Gold Inc., Silver Wheaton, Barrick Gold Corp. and Gold Fields Ltd., all owned through holdings in the OCM Gold Fund. I personally am or my family is paid by the following companies mentioned in this interview: None. My company has a financial relationship with the following companies mentioned in this interview: None. I was not paid by Streetwise Reports for participating in this interview. Comments and opinions expressed are my own comments and opinions. I had the opportunity to review the interview for accuracy as of the date of the interview and am responsible for the content of the interview. 4) Interviews are edited for clarity. Streetwise Reports does not make editorial comments or change experts' statements without their consent. 5) The interview does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a
  • 17. result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports' terms of use and full legal disclaimer. 6) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned and may make purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise. Source: Watch Todays 1pm Market Update Paper Gold, Physical Gold: The Ultimate Disconnect A look at the recent gold price crash... HOW CAN we explain gold dropping into the $1,300 level in less than a week? asks Casey Research chief economist Bud Conrad. Here are some of the factors: George Soros cut his fund holdings in the biggest gold ETF by 55% in the fourth quarter of 2012. He was not alone: the gold holdings of GLD have contracted all year, down about 12.2% at present. On April 9, the FOMC minutes were leaked a day early and revealed that some members were discussing slowing the Fed $85 billion per month buying of Treasuries and MBS. If the money stimulus might not last as long as thought before, the "printing" may not cause as much Dollar debasement. On April 10, Goldman Sachs warned that gold could go lower and lowered its target price. It even recommended getting out of gold. COT Reports showed a decrease in the bullishness of large speculators this year (much more on this technical point below). The lackluster price movement since September 2011 fatigued some speculators and trend followers. Cyprus was rumored to need to sell some 400 million Euros' worth of its gold to cover its bank bailouts. While small at only about 350,000 ounces, there was a fear that other weak European countries with too much debt and sizable gold holdings could be forced into the same action. Cyprus officials have denied the sale, so the question is still in debate, even though the market has already moved. Doug Casey believes that if weak European countries were forced to sell, the gold would mostly be absorbed by China and other sovereign Asian buyers, rather than flood the physical markets. My opinion, looking at the list of items above, is that they are not big enough by themselves to have created such a large disruption in the gold market.
  • 18. Paper Gold The paper gold market is best embodied in the futures exchanges. The prices we see quoted all day long moving up and down are taken from the latest trades of futures contracts. The CME (the old Chicago Mercantile Exchange) has a large flow of orders and provides the public with an indication of the price of gold. The futures markets are special because very little physical commodity is exchanged; most of the trading is between buyers taking long positions against sellers taking short positions, with most contracts liquidated before final settlement and delivery. These contracts require very small amounts of margin – as little as 5% of the value of the commodity – to gain potentially large swings in the outcome of profit or loss. Thus, futures markets appear to be a speculator's paradise. But the statistics show just the opposite: 90% of traders lose their shirts. The other 10% take all the profits from the losers. More on this below. On April 12, there were big sell orders of 400 tonnes that moved the futures market lower. Once the futures market makes a big move like that, stops can be triggered, causing it to move even more on its own. It can become a panic, where markets react more to fear than fundamentals. Having traded in futures for over two decades, I want to provide some detail on how these leveraged markets operate. It's important to understand that the structure of the futures market allows brokers to sell positions if fluctuations cause customers to exceed their margin limits and they don't immediately deposit more money to restore their margins. When a position goes against a trader, brokers can demand that funds be deposited within 24 hours (or even sooner at the broker's discretion). If the funds don't appear, the broker can sell the position and liquidate the speculator's account. This structure can force prices to fall more than would be indicated by supply and demand fundamentals. When I first signed up to trade futures, I was appalled at the powers the broker wrote into the contract, which included them having the power to immediately liquidate my positions at their discretion. I was also surprised at how little screening they did to ensure that I was good for whatever positions I put in place, considering the high levels of leverage they allowed me. Let me tell you that I had many cases where I was told to put up more margin or lose my positions. Those times resulted in me selling at the worst level because the market had gone against me. The point of this is that once a market moves dramatically, there are usually stops taken out, positions liquidated, margin calls issued, and little guys like me get taken to the cleaners. Debates rage about the structure of the futures market, but my personal opinion is that a big hammer to the market by a well-heeled big player can force liquidations, increase losses, and push the momentum of the market much lower than the initial impetus would have. Thus, after a huge impact like we saw on April 12, the market will continue with enough momentum that a well-timed exit of a huge set of short positions can provide profits to the well-heeled market mover. Moving from theory to practice, one of the most important things to keep your eye on is the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which is issued every Friday. It details the long and the short positions of three categories of traders. The first category is called "commercials." They are dealers in the physical precious metals – for example, gold miners. The second category is called "non-commercials." They include hedge funds and large commercial banks like JP Morgan. Non-commercials are sometimes called "large speculators." The rest are the small traders, called "non-reporting" since they are not required to identify themselves. The ones to watch are the large speculators (non-
  • 19. commercials), as they tend to move with the direction of the market. Individual entities could be long or short, but in combination the net position of the group is a key indicator. The following chart shows the price of gold as a blue line at the top, and the next panel down shows the net position of these large speculators as a black line. You can see that over the long term, they move together. When the net speculative position is above zero, this group is betting on rising gold prices. Of course, the reverse is true when it's below zero. In this 20-year view, the large speculators were holding net negative positions during the lowest point of the gold price, around the year 2000. As the price of gold rose, their positions went net long, and they profited. An interesting thing about the chart above is that the increasing amount of net longs reversed itself before gold peaked in 2011, suggesting that these large speculators became slightly less bullish all the way back in 2010. The balance remains net long, but it remains to be seen how long that lasts. What is not so obvious is that these large speculators are so big that they can affect the market as well as profit from it; when they initiate massive positions in a bull market, they drive the price of the futures contracts even higher. Similarly, when they remove their positions or actually go short, they can push the market lower. So what happened a week ago was that a massive order to sell 400 tonnes of gold all at once hit the market. Within minutes the price plummeted, and over a two-day period resulted in the largest drop of the price for futures delivery of gold in 33 years: down $200 per ounce.
  • 20. We don't have the name of the entity that did this. However, the way the gold was sold all at once suggests that the goal was not to get the best price. An investor with a position of this size should have been smart enough to use sensible trading tactics, issuing much smaller sell orders over a period of time. This would avoid swamping the market; and some of the orders would be filled at higher prices and thus generate more profit. Placing a sell order big enough to affect the overall market price suggests that someone with powerful backing wanted to drive the price of gold down. Such an entity could have been a large speculator who already had a sizable short position and could gain by unloading some of its short position once the market momentum had driven the price even yet lower. Or it could be a central bank – one that might be happy to have the gold price move lower, as it would provide cover for its printing of more new money. Of course, it could be some entity that owned long contracts and wanted to get out of the position all at once. We don't know, but this kind of activity, resulting in the biggest drop in 30 years, raises more than just suspicion when we consider how important the price of gold is to many markets around the globe. Can markets really be influenced by big players? Well, was the LIBOR rate accurately reported by huge banks? Have players ever tried to corner markets? The answer to all the above, unfortunately, is yes. There's an even bigger problem with the legal structure of the futures market: even the segregated funds on deposit can be pilfered by the broker for the brokerage's other obligations. That is what happened to MF Global customers under Mr. Corzine. (I had an account with a predecessor company called Man Financial – the "MF" in the name. I also had an account with Refco, which is now defunct. Fortunately, the daggers did not hit my account, since I was not a holder when the catastrophes occurred.) My take: the futures market is dangerous, and not a place for beginners. One last note: after the Bankruptcy Act of 2005, the regulations support the brokers, not the investors, when there are questions of legality about losses in individual investment accounts. Casey Research will be producing a report with much more detail on this subject in the near future. So, what now? We aren't going to see a secret memo – no smoking gun to confirm that what happened on April 13 was an attempt to affect the market. Still, the evidence is suspicious. When big entities can gain from putting on big positions, the incentives are big enough for them to try – LIBOR, Plunge Protection Team, Whale Trade, etc., all support this view. Physical Gold Previously, there was little difference between the physical and paper markets for gold. Yes, there were premiums and delivery charges, but everybody regarded the futures market as the base quote. I believe this is changing; people don't trust the paper market as they used to. Instead of capitulating to fear of greater losses, the demand for physical gold has hit new records. The US Mint sold a record 63,500 ounces – a whopping 2 tonnes – of gold on April 17 alone, bringing the total sales for the month to 147,000 ounces; that's more than the previous two months combined. Indian markets, which are more oriented to physical metal, now have a premium of US$150 over the futures price in Chicago. Demand at coin dealers has increased as the price has dropped. And premiums are much bigger than they were as recently as a week ago.
  • 21. Here is a vendor page that quotes purchase prices and calculates the premiums on an ongoing basis. It shows premiums of 50% and more in many cases. On eBay, prices for one-ounce silver coins are $33 to $35, where the futures price is quoted as $23. A look on Friday April 19 shows one vendor out of stock on most items: Clearly, the physical gold market today is sending different signals than the paper market. The Case for Gold Is Still with Us The long-term fundamental reasons to hold gold are undeniably still with us. The central banks of the world are acting in concert in "currency wars" or "the race to debase." As they print more money, the purchasing power of each unit declines. They are caught between the rock of having to keep interest rates low to support their governments' huge deficits and the hard place of the long-term effect of diluting their currency. If rates rise, even First World governments will be forced to pay higher interest fees, leading to loss of confidence in their ability to pay back their debt, which will bring on a sovereign debt crisis like what we have seen in the PIIGS or Argentina recently. The following chart shows the rapid growth in the balance sheets as a ratio to GDP for the three largest central banks. I've extrapolated the expected growth into the future based on the rate at which they propose to buy up assets. One could argue about how
  • 22. long these growth rates will continue, but the incentives are all there for all central banks to bail out their governments and their commercial banks. I fully expect the printing game to continue to provide the fuel for hard-asset investments like gold and silver to increase in price in the years to come. Buying Opportunity or Time to Flee? So what does it all mean? The paper price of gold crashed to $1,325 in the wake of this huge trade. It is now hovering around $1,400. My first reaction is to suggest that this is only an aberration, and that the fundamentals of the depreciating value of paper currencies will eventually take the price of gold much higher, making it a buying opportunity. But what I can't predict is whether big players might again deliver short- term downturns to the market. The momentum in the futures market can make swings surprisingly larger than the fundamentals of currency valuation would suggest. Traders will be looking for a significant turnaround to the upside in price before entering long positions. However, a long-term, fundamentals-based trader has to look at the low price as a buying opportunity. I can't prove it, but I think the fundamentals will drive the long-term market more than these short-term events. The fight between pricing from the physical market for bullion and that from the "paper market" of futures is showing signs of discrimination and disagreement, as the physical market is booming, while prices set by futures are seemingly pressured to go nowhere. In short, I think this is a strong buying opportunity. Bud Conrad, 24 Apr '13
  • 23. Bud Conrad holds a Bachelor of Engineering degree from Yale and an MBA from Harvard. He has held positions with IBM, CDC, Amdahl, and Tandem. Currently, he serves as a local board member of the National Association of Business Economics and teaches graduate courses in investing at Golden Gate University. Mr. Conrad, a futures investor for 25 years and a full-time investor for a decade, is also a regular lecturer for American Association of Individual Investors. As a senior researcher for Casey Research, LLC., he produces original research and analysis for the International Speculator. The 'Real' Gold Price - 24 April 2013 How the fundamentals drive gold... THERE HAS been some media piling-on since the recent hard breakdown in gold,writes Gary Tanashian in his Notes from the Rabbit Hole. The aptly named Howard Gold explains: "Gold's price could be headed much, much lower". This was written on April 18, when the value assigned to the monetary relic (AKA its nominal price) resided at $1391 per ounce. So be warned, Mr. Gold advises that gold could go much much lower. Gold bugs take heed; Mr. Gold himself has put the double 'much' whammy on you! After critical support at $1524 was lost our first downside target of $1440 or so was sawn through like Balsa Wood. Okay fine. For those who micro manage every tick in the price of gold (I am not one), then here is the situation; the current little rebound must extend back up to and through the broken support level at $1440 or the next target in the low $1200s is up next. Now on to the fundamentals, courtesy of Mr. Gold: "But gold's price could be headed much, much lower, said Campbell Harvey, a professor at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University. Harvey has looked at gold prices over the centuries, and concludes that it's still trading at lofty multiples of inflation." In the article linked above there is another link where you can download the research of Mr. Harvey and colleague Claude Erb – currently making the rounds like a good gold bug horror movie – that talks about gold's 'real' price as measured by CPI and GDP. Boiling it all down, gold is historically over valued as compared to measures of the effects of inflation – which I define as a rising money supply – on consumer prices and relative to GDP. We will steer clear of the debate about government number fudging, because it is a battle that is not necessary. The Federal Reserve and many of its counterparts around the globe are inflating, or trying their damnedest to inflate. They are using debt
  • 24. instruments to create money out of nowhere and pumping it into big banks, which are supposedly expected to release the money out to the public. This could one day manifest in an out of control inflation problem (as measured by the lagging effects that Harvey and Erb call inflation, or resolve into a more intense deflationary phase as the thing that is just a whiff now gains momentum and swallows the entire spectrum of inflated assets in one big gulp of illiquidity. The economy has depended on inflationary policy since the age of Inflation on Demand began under Alan Greenspan's oversight in and around 2000. Ask yourself this; why are they inflating? Why are they printing money at a furious pace if the GDP is real and sustainable? The answer is likely because they know that the financial system is a leveraged thing that must not be allowed to start deflating because if it starts deleveraging, it is not going to stop until the books are cleared. The authors noted above measure gold's 'real' price in CPI and GDP. Here we have always measured it relative to the commodity complex, which is generally positively correlated to the global economy. Below is gold vs. the CCI commodity index. I had originally thought that a decline to the lower moving average would come with a continued economic bump, stock bull market and inflation-fueled commodity bounce. But instead, gold has tanked vs. commodities even as a deflationary pull starts to take hold with signs of economic deceleration, commodities down and the stock market potentially in some kind of a topping process. Yet the 'real' price is still in a secular uptrend because the ratio has held above another parameter point we noted as important. If the blue arrow is confirmed by turning green one day, the message will continue to be a secular era of economic contraction, which has thus far been fought tooth and nail by inflationary policy. That is and has been the case for gold since day one. Not the case most gold bugs root for, which is inflationary effects, the likes of which are used as data points by Harvey and Erb. See? Of course Harvey and Erb scare the gold "community" because a majority of the "community" sees gold as a hedge against higher prices. If the above chart breaks down and makes a lower low to the spring of 2011 (the height of the last commodity/inflation blowout) then we may have to admit Bernanke wins, Draghi wins, BoJ, China Central Planning and all other inflators win. They will have managed to create sustainable economies literally out of thin air.
  • 25. The alternative to that is hyperinflation, where an asset grab of epic proportions could engage with gold underperforming things you can actually eat, keep warm with and use for fuel. This asset grab would come out of a debased monetary system. More realistically however, we might look for the real price of gold to gain support in its secular uptrend. This would see economic contraction and by extension, further decline in commodities and stock markets. We have noted all along that the nominal gold price can decline in this environment, so people should know why they own the thing. Also, getting out of the 'Death of the Dollar' cult might be wise as well. The US Dollar, as long as implied confidence in our leaders remains intact, may be pulled upward with the real price of gold as a contraction phase bites harder. This is the world's reserve currency in which a majority of global transactions are settled. As long as this remains the case, there will be claims on Uncle Buck. USD, as of the moment, is liquidity within the system. Gold by the way, is liquidity outside the system. The average gold bug's worst enemy is the inflation tout. It is not the government or the big banks. It is the individual's expectations of a lump of shiny metal. If they have not gotten this simple concept yet, after the recent damage, I am afraid they will never get it. And they will puke up their gold, which failed to protect them from the dreaded inflation that wasn't. The "dreaded inflation" is measured in the mainstream by prices (CPI, etc.), not policy- making actions. Gold is a barometer and the pressure it would indicate could be inflationary or deflationary. If one day you see the gold price skyrocket, then be prepared for a coming (lagging) inflation problem that would indeed eventually show up in prices. This could propel commodities, resources, productive economies and even stock markets to new heights. If on the other hand gold just hangs around or declines, yet the 'real' price as measured in commodities rises again, the backdrop would be one of continued economic contraction and declining asset prices. The third alternative is the least likely; gold hangs around or declines and yet the 'real' price loses its secular uptrend. This would indicate a sustainable economic expansion, created by inflationary policy has engaged. Thus far, inflationary policy has served to build in distortions that subject the system to extreme liquidations. That right there is the continuing case for gold – and for the time being I might add – cash, lots of it. Gary Tanashian, 24 Apr '13 Gary Tanashian successfully owned and operated a progressive medical component manufacturing company for 21 years, through various economic cycles. This experience gave Gary an understanding of and appreciation for global macroeconomics as it relates to individual markets and sectors. Along the way, Gary developed an almost geek-like interest in technical analysis (TA), to add to a long-time interest in human psychology. Various unique macro market ratio indicators were also added to the mix, with the result being a financial market newsletter, Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH) that combines these attributes. Panic and chaos management? No just plain good common- sense investment:
  • 26. Trade smart, not with Greed Pierre A Pienaar Resources for the Independent Trader Blog http://sulia.com/pierreapienaar/ Pierre A Pienaar retired in 2011 from business.
  • 27. I would like to share my passion, my interests, knowledge & experiences in Forex, Options, Gold Investments, Futures, Stocks, Binary Options, Economics, Stamp Collection, Sports, Gardening, Reading, Photography, and Politics Substantial risk of loss There is a substantial risk of loss of stocks, forex, commodities, futures, options, and foreign equities are substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. You should read, understand, and consider the Risk Disclosure Statement that is provided by your broker before you consider trading.