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Investing and You 
Presented by Manish Dhawan of Mystic Wealth.
Who Am I 
Skin in the game 
MMaanniisshh DDhhaawwaann 
Averaging 29.12% CAGR from last 3 years by doing simple things 
lik...
This Presentation has 02 parts. 
What Not to do?. Tell me where I would Die and I 
won't go there!!! 
What to do? 
Where i...
2 types of players 
 Technical analysts  Value Investors. 
There is one thing common in them.
They HATE EACH OTHER
WHY?? 
Commitment and Consistency Bias. 
When you commit yourself to a given strategy/philosophy/person/idea, you start 
s...
What Do I follow!!!
On a serious Note. 
Intelligence is beyond the confines of profession 
and categories, incidentally so is Stupidity. 
Stop...
I have learnt my lessons from 
Intelligent Investor written by Benjamin Graham and the concept of Mr. Market 
Risk managem...
Accountability 
Who is a better batsmen 
We know the answer because of Audited records, not one off Innings but consistent...
What If 
There were no rule for OUTS. 
There was no scorecard. 
There were no records or data? 
How will U differenciat...
You cannot 
Without a scorecard, there will be SurvivorShip Bias. 
Without a scorecard, there will be Recency Bias. 
Witho...
And Yet its a common site to see this self promotion 
on CNBC TV 18 and other Business Channels.
Moral of the story 
Do NOT Listen /follow anyone who doesn't have SKIN IN THE GAME: 
“Mandatory heuristic that anyone invo...
Where is the MONEY 
Honey!!! 
PART 2 
Please Note that ,markets are inefficient enough to blast the 
Efficient market Hypo...
What 2 Do?? 
Depends on 
Who U R 
A Retail Investor 
With No time and Interest. 
A full Time Investor/trader 
A retail Inv...
A Retail Investor 
With No time and Interest. 
RESPECT THIS full time Profession and do not INVEST 
your Money Yourself. 
...
A Retail Investor 
With No time and 
Interest. 
Search for a skin in 
the game 
Advisory/Mutual fund 
like:- PPFAS 
(Parag...
A retail Investor 
With time and Interest 
Search for a 
skin in the 
game 
Advisory/Mut 
ual fund 
like:- PPFAS 
(Parag p...
LONG TERM 
TREND 
FOLLOWING 
. 
STEP 1: Go to www.screener.in and add a customised filter. 
I use Average return on equity...
Following Names among many others showed UP
These are ALL MOATS.
STEP 2: Plot a Cammerilla PIVOT Chart on weekly 
Timeframe for the selected scrips. 
STEP 3: WAIT like a HAWK for the Pric...
Colgate: Brush ur way to riches.
Asian Paint: Paint ur way to 
riches.
Dhanuka Agri
Gsk Consumer
You know why this simple strategy works. 
Do U KNOW Y?? 
Its a lollapalooza Effect, The Riding the wave, What goes up, Kee...
The Whipsaw SONG 
Credited and attributed to Ed Seykota of www.tradingtribe.com 
Non commercial Use.
A full Time Investor/trader 
Demerger/ 
Spin-Off Mr.Market Myopia CLONING 
IDEA is to SPOT the Inefficiency and then EXPLO...
Demerger/ 
Spin-Off 
Cash Cow Not 
getting its due. 
PIG getting hammered 
Out of shape. 
Post news 
Value 
Unlocking
Examples 
GULF OIL Value unlocking post news.
Orient Paper PIG getting hammered.
ORIENT Cement: Cow Not respected.
Mr.Market Myopia 
Mr Market cannot see beyond 2-4 Quarters. 
That creates Opportunity
EXAMPLES 
Maruti Lock OUT 
MCX Fiasco 
Thomas Cook Crash 
JB Chemicals bad Quarter 
Sah Petroleum Bonus Issue 
Apollo Tyre...
Apollo Crash
MCX Fiasco
Sah Petroleum
CLONING 
 Keep ego at bay, we are here to earn money, not BROWNIE POINTS. 
 Don't give in to the STORY,watch out for sur...
Some People I look for 
Ayush Mittal 
Soham Das 
Prof Sanjay bakshi 
Anil Tulsiram 
Amit Arora 
RadhaKrishna Damani 
Value...
BOOKMARK 
http://www.vantharp.com/ 
This website has a position sizing simulation game for you to hone your skills. 
seyko...
BOOKMARK 
http://www.vantharp.com/ 
This website has a position sizing simulation game for you to hone your skills. 
seyko...
Prediction 
“There are 02 kind of forcasters, Those who don't know and others who don't 
know that they don't Know” 
Danie...
Process 
“We are willing to look stupid as long as we have not done anything stupid”. 
Warren Buffet.
THANK YOU 
Website: www.mysticwealth.in 
EMAIL: info@mysticwealth.in 
Ph:- 09899176304
MysticWealth's presentation at 4th Annual IIF, mumbai.
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MysticWealth's presentation at 4th Annual IIF, mumbai.

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What not to do in stock markets. BIASES to be vary of.
What to do. In efficiencies in the market.

Published in: Economy & Finance

MysticWealth's presentation at 4th Annual IIF, mumbai.

  1. 1. Investing and You Presented by Manish Dhawan of Mystic Wealth.
  2. 2. Who Am I Skin in the game MMaanniisshh DDhhaawwaann Averaging 29.12% CAGR from last 3 years by doing simple things like Risk Arb, Spin-off and clone Investing.
  3. 3. This Presentation has 02 parts. What Not to do?. Tell me where I would Die and I won't go there!!! What to do? Where is the MONEY!!!?
  4. 4. 2 types of players  Technical analysts  Value Investors. There is one thing common in them.
  5. 5. They HATE EACH OTHER
  6. 6. WHY?? Commitment and Consistency Bias. When you commit yourself to a given strategy/philosophy/person/idea, you start searching for confirmation evidence and start discarding disconfirming ones.
  7. 7. What Do I follow!!!
  8. 8. On a serious Note. Intelligence is beyond the confines of profession and categories, incidentally so is Stupidity. Stop !!! This BIAS and acquire Knowledge from multiple sources.
  9. 9. I have learnt my lessons from Intelligent Investor written by Benjamin Graham and the concept of Mr. Market Risk management and trend following as taught by Ed Seykota Position sizing as taught by Van Tharp Mental Models and psychology as taught by Charlie Munger and Dan Ariely respectively.
  10. 10. Accountability Who is a better batsmen We know the answer because of Audited records, not one off Innings but consistent Record over the years
  11. 11. What If There were no rule for OUTS. There was no scorecard. There were no records or data? How will U differenciate a Sachin from a Sreesanth.
  12. 12. You cannot Without a scorecard, there will be SurvivorShip Bias. Without a scorecard, there will be Recency Bias. Without a Scorecard, there will be Vividness Bias. Like Warren Once said, “Even a broken clock is right twice in a day”
  13. 13. And Yet its a common site to see this self promotion on CNBC TV 18 and other Business Channels.
  14. 14. Moral of the story Do NOT Listen /follow anyone who doesn't have SKIN IN THE GAME: “Mandatory heuristic that anyone involved in an action which can possibly generate harm for others, even probabilistically, should be required to be exposed to some damage, regardless of context” Nassim Nicholas Taleb..
  15. 15. Where is the MONEY Honey!!! PART 2 Please Note that ,markets are inefficient enough to blast the Efficient market Hypothesis, But not enough for you to make easy money.
  16. 16. What 2 Do?? Depends on Who U R A Retail Investor With No time and Interest. A full Time Investor/trader A retail Investor With time and Interest
  17. 17. A Retail Investor With No time and Interest. RESPECT THIS full time Profession and do not INVEST your Money Yourself. It takes 5 years to become a doc, 4 to become an engineer, atleast 03 to Become an entreprenuer and you will not become an Investor by reading a couple of books.
  18. 18. A Retail Investor With No time and Interest. Search for a skin in the game Advisory/Mutual fund like:- PPFAS (Parag parikh) Invest with SIP in Index ETF like Quantum (low transaction fees)
  19. 19. A retail Investor With time and Interest Search for a skin in the game Advisory/Mut ual fund like:- PPFAS (Parag parikh) Invest with SIP in Index ETF like Quantum (low transaction fees) LONG TERM TREND FOLLOWING .
  20. 20. LONG TERM TREND FOLLOWING . STEP 1: Go to www.screener.in and add a customised filter. I use Average return on equity 10Years >30 AND Average return on capital employed 5Years >20 AND Debt to equity <0.3
  21. 21. Following Names among many others showed UP
  22. 22. These are ALL MOATS.
  23. 23. STEP 2: Plot a Cammerilla PIVOT Chart on weekly Timeframe for the selected scrips. STEP 3: WAIT like a HAWK for the Prices to retrace to your PIVOTS and keep adding on their way UP. Please request individually to get the AFL for plotting PIVOTS on you AMBROKER charts
  24. 24. Colgate: Brush ur way to riches.
  25. 25. Asian Paint: Paint ur way to riches.
  26. 26. Dhanuka Agri
  27. 27. Gsk Consumer
  28. 28. You know why this simple strategy works. Do U KNOW Y?? Its a lollapalooza Effect, The Riding the wave, What goes up, Keeps going up
  29. 29. The Whipsaw SONG Credited and attributed to Ed Seykota of www.tradingtribe.com Non commercial Use.
  30. 30. A full Time Investor/trader Demerger/ Spin-Off Mr.Market Myopia CLONING IDEA is to SPOT the Inefficiency and then EXPLOIT it.
  31. 31. Demerger/ Spin-Off Cash Cow Not getting its due. PIG getting hammered Out of shape. Post news Value Unlocking
  32. 32. Examples GULF OIL Value unlocking post news.
  33. 33. Orient Paper PIG getting hammered.
  34. 34. ORIENT Cement: Cow Not respected.
  35. 35. Mr.Market Myopia Mr Market cannot see beyond 2-4 Quarters. That creates Opportunity
  36. 36. EXAMPLES Maruti Lock OUT MCX Fiasco Thomas Cook Crash JB Chemicals bad Quarter Sah Petroleum Bonus Issue Apollo Tyre Crash
  37. 37. Apollo Crash
  38. 38. MCX Fiasco
  39. 39. Sah Petroleum
  40. 40. CLONING  Keep ego at bay, we are here to earn money, not BROWNIE POINTS.  Don't give in to the STORY,watch out for survivorship Bias.  Make sure there is skin in the game
  41. 41. Some People I look for Ayush Mittal Soham Das Prof Sanjay bakshi Anil Tulsiram Amit Arora RadhaKrishna Damani ValuePickr
  42. 42. BOOKMARK http://www.vantharp.com/ This website has a position sizing simulation game for you to hone your skills. seykota.com/Tribe/risk/index.htm EMAIL ME TO RECEIVE A WHOLE COLLECTION OF CHARLIE MUNGER'S SPEECHES AND LECTURES
  43. 43. BOOKMARK http://www.vantharp.com/ This website has a position sizing simulation game for you to hone your skills. seykota.com/Tribe/risk/index.htm EMAIL ME TO RECEIVE A WHOLE COLLECTION OF CHARLIE MUNGER'S SPEECHES AND LECTURES
  44. 44. Prediction “There are 02 kind of forcasters, Those who don't know and others who don't know that they don't Know” Daniel Kahneman
  45. 45. Process “We are willing to look stupid as long as we have not done anything stupid”. Warren Buffet.
  46. 46. THANK YOU Website: www.mysticwealth.in EMAIL: info@mysticwealth.in Ph:- 09899176304

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