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2016 Investment Outlook – and other thoughts for Endeavor…
ARIEL POLER @ariel
Ariel’s Background
 Founder: IPRO (94), Topica (98) & TextMarks (06).
 Board Member: Kana, LinkExchange, Freedom Financial, Odeo,
StumbleUpon, Scan, Strava, Returnly.
 Investor: AdMob, Flixster, Slideshare, BrightRoll, Instructables,
VivaReal, Optimizely, Thumbtack, Viki, Pantheon,
ApartmentList, Kueski, Kongregate, LendingHome, NexTag,
Thync, Cornershop and more…
 Personal: From Venezuela. BS at MIT (math), MBA at Stanford.
Lives in San Francisco. Is a kitesurfer.
The Sky is not Falling –
at least not for everybody
There has been a “correction”. Valuations were very
high and discipline was very low.
Draught of IPOs & adjusted public valuations trickles
down – particularly to late stage rounds
Series A crunch becoming Series B crunch…
Financings are taking longer – on average
Yet, VCs are not opening restaurants. They still have
their funds to invest!
The Sky is not Falling –
recent financings in my portfolio
Cornershop (Mexico & Chile)
$6.7MM Series A
Accel, Jackson Square, ALLVP, Endeavor Catalyst, Creandum
Kueski (Mexico)
Great Series A to be announced soon…
A Pause: You can’t follow all
the advise that you get
Silicon Valley is very diverse and there are many
philosophies and approaches that co-exist here
You must find the approach that works for you
Advise should help you gain insights and to experiment
It is the same for competitive athletes…
Silicon Valley is Another Planet
It is not the US. It is not California. It does not include
Sacramento or Los Angeles.
Most of us are from “out of town”. Whether you come
from Salt Lake City or from Lima, you are a “foreigner”
If your company is here, it doesn’t matter where you
came from. If your company is not here, most Silicon
Valley investors are not interested. But some are…
Back to the Financing
Outlook…
The “bar” is higher than it was a year ago
But none of you care because you have great
companies, right? .
Valuations remain “healthy” if a bit lower
During uncertain times there is a flight to “quality”
Very high valuations for the most desirable companies
Very large “seed” rounds -> $5MM-$7MM
Source: Pitchbook for CA, NY and MA, non-healthcare
Source: Pitchbook for CA, NY and MA, non-healthcare
Source: Pitchbook for CA, NY and MA, non-healthcare
What are sophisticated
investors looking for?
Product market fit
Engagement
A cost effective marketing plan that scales, and, ideally,
has been validated
Attractive unit economics
Plenty of runway
A team that can scale for a while
No “rising tide” plays
Fewer Exits Put Pressure
on the System
Lower late stage valuations that trickle down
VCs are less willing to take new board seats
Some investors slowing down waiting for liquidity
Slowdown in the influx of new angel investors
Long term players are happy – flippers, less so
Fewer Seeds mean a better A environment
Buy Yourself Time
Keys to Successful Financings
Obviously the company
team
market
product
traction
Pitching to the right investor -> fit
A presentation that doesn’t get in the way
Getting the investors excited
Don’t chase the metrics
Don’t get greedy
Try to control the
timing of the financing
Yes, on average they are taking longer… But
Once you have one term sheet, even a crappy one from
a third rate investor, you have leverage
Three weeks or three months? Same outcome. Give
investors a deadline! I’ve seen deals done in a week
If you don’t have a term sheet, try to create some other
forcing function
Avoid a permanent state of fundraising. Focus on the
business and fundraise when you are ready
Silicon Valley Investors will Remain
Cautious if they Can’t
Uber to your company
Be careful about market schizophrenia
Be careful about company location schizophrenia
Get the local support
Explore other geographies for investors, e.g., London,
New York, LA, Boston.
Consider getting Silicon Valley investors later
Silicon Valley companies are
expanding globally much
faster
Used to focus on the US market for years
But…
International fast followers, e.g., Rocket Internet
Uber showed it can be done – and with a “physical”
product
So…
International companies have less time to react
"You are too early” and other excuses
Most investors do deals when they get excited by them. But
they don't like to say “I am not excited", so instead they use an
easy excuses, such as:
- You are too early
- The deal is too small
- I want to see more customers/revenues/technology
Be careful about trying to solve address their excuses, because
once you do they are likely to find others. Instead, figure out
how to get them excited.
Investors like to keep their options open.
How I choose
my entrepreneurs?
Did I have fun during the meeting?
Do I want to have him over for dinner?
Is the opportunity & market large & worthwhile?
Will the project have a meaningful impact?
Can I help?
Help Us Help You
We have a very supportive culture in Silicon Valley.
Relationships rather than transactions.
Do your homework
The right people to talk to
The topics you want to discuss
Be Specific
Add value
LESSONS FROM SILICON VALLEY
ARIEL POLER @ariel

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Endeavor talk

  • 1. 2016 Investment Outlook – and other thoughts for Endeavor… ARIEL POLER @ariel
  • 2. Ariel’s Background  Founder: IPRO (94), Topica (98) & TextMarks (06).  Board Member: Kana, LinkExchange, Freedom Financial, Odeo, StumbleUpon, Scan, Strava, Returnly.  Investor: AdMob, Flixster, Slideshare, BrightRoll, Instructables, VivaReal, Optimizely, Thumbtack, Viki, Pantheon, ApartmentList, Kueski, Kongregate, LendingHome, NexTag, Thync, Cornershop and more…  Personal: From Venezuela. BS at MIT (math), MBA at Stanford. Lives in San Francisco. Is a kitesurfer.
  • 3.
  • 4. The Sky is not Falling – at least not for everybody There has been a “correction”. Valuations were very high and discipline was very low. Draught of IPOs & adjusted public valuations trickles down – particularly to late stage rounds Series A crunch becoming Series B crunch… Financings are taking longer – on average Yet, VCs are not opening restaurants. They still have their funds to invest!
  • 5. The Sky is not Falling – recent financings in my portfolio Cornershop (Mexico & Chile) $6.7MM Series A Accel, Jackson Square, ALLVP, Endeavor Catalyst, Creandum Kueski (Mexico) Great Series A to be announced soon…
  • 6. A Pause: You can’t follow all the advise that you get Silicon Valley is very diverse and there are many philosophies and approaches that co-exist here You must find the approach that works for you Advise should help you gain insights and to experiment It is the same for competitive athletes…
  • 7. Silicon Valley is Another Planet It is not the US. It is not California. It does not include Sacramento or Los Angeles. Most of us are from “out of town”. Whether you come from Salt Lake City or from Lima, you are a “foreigner” If your company is here, it doesn’t matter where you came from. If your company is not here, most Silicon Valley investors are not interested. But some are…
  • 8. Back to the Financing Outlook… The “bar” is higher than it was a year ago But none of you care because you have great companies, right? . Valuations remain “healthy” if a bit lower During uncertain times there is a flight to “quality” Very high valuations for the most desirable companies Very large “seed” rounds -> $5MM-$7MM
  • 9. Source: Pitchbook for CA, NY and MA, non-healthcare
  • 10. Source: Pitchbook for CA, NY and MA, non-healthcare
  • 11. Source: Pitchbook for CA, NY and MA, non-healthcare
  • 12. What are sophisticated investors looking for? Product market fit Engagement A cost effective marketing plan that scales, and, ideally, has been validated Attractive unit economics Plenty of runway A team that can scale for a while No “rising tide” plays
  • 13. Fewer Exits Put Pressure on the System Lower late stage valuations that trickle down VCs are less willing to take new board seats Some investors slowing down waiting for liquidity Slowdown in the influx of new angel investors Long term players are happy – flippers, less so Fewer Seeds mean a better A environment
  • 15. Keys to Successful Financings Obviously the company team market product traction Pitching to the right investor -> fit A presentation that doesn’t get in the way Getting the investors excited Don’t chase the metrics Don’t get greedy
  • 16. Try to control the timing of the financing Yes, on average they are taking longer… But Once you have one term sheet, even a crappy one from a third rate investor, you have leverage Three weeks or three months? Same outcome. Give investors a deadline! I’ve seen deals done in a week If you don’t have a term sheet, try to create some other forcing function Avoid a permanent state of fundraising. Focus on the business and fundraise when you are ready
  • 17. Silicon Valley Investors will Remain Cautious if they Can’t Uber to your company Be careful about market schizophrenia Be careful about company location schizophrenia Get the local support Explore other geographies for investors, e.g., London, New York, LA, Boston. Consider getting Silicon Valley investors later
  • 18. Silicon Valley companies are expanding globally much faster Used to focus on the US market for years But… International fast followers, e.g., Rocket Internet Uber showed it can be done – and with a “physical” product So… International companies have less time to react
  • 19. "You are too early” and other excuses Most investors do deals when they get excited by them. But they don't like to say “I am not excited", so instead they use an easy excuses, such as: - You are too early - The deal is too small - I want to see more customers/revenues/technology Be careful about trying to solve address their excuses, because once you do they are likely to find others. Instead, figure out how to get them excited. Investors like to keep their options open.
  • 20. How I choose my entrepreneurs? Did I have fun during the meeting? Do I want to have him over for dinner? Is the opportunity & market large & worthwhile? Will the project have a meaningful impact? Can I help?
  • 21. Help Us Help You We have a very supportive culture in Silicon Valley. Relationships rather than transactions. Do your homework The right people to talk to The topics you want to discuss Be Specific Add value
  • 22. LESSONS FROM SILICON VALLEY ARIEL POLER @ariel