The global economy is expected to improve in 2014 with growth forecast at 3.6% after slowing to 2.9% in 2013. Business optimism and expectations for revenue, profits, and investment are up significantly from a year ago, especially in developed economies like the US, UK, and Germany. However, emerging markets face challenges from currency depreciation and slowing growth. While recoveries are taking hold in major economies, unemployment remains high in Europe and demand and skilled labor shortages constrain some business leaders. Overall uncertainties in the global economic outlook remain the top concern for businesses worldwide in 2014.
The global economy is projected to grow at 3.6% in 2014, up from 2.9% growth in 2013. While developed economies like the US, UK, and Germany are expected to grow strongly, some emerging markets face challenges. Business confidence is up globally but lower in BRIC countries. Growth is also expected to be stronger in developing regions than developed economies in 2014, though the gap will be smaller than in past years. Overall the outlook is for continued global recovery but risks remain from the eurozone crisis and tapering of US monetary stimulus.
The document provides an analysis of recent global and African economic trends from the World Bank's Office of the Chief Economist for Africa. Key points include:
- Global growth is projected to strengthen to 3% in 2014, led by a recovery in high-income countries. However, risks remain from financial volatility and a slowdown in capital flows.
- Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa strengthened to 4.7% in 2013, led by strong domestic demand and investment. Excluding South Africa, growth was 6.1%.
- The outlook for the region remains positive, but is sensitive to risks from lower commodity prices and a slowdown in capital flows. Frontier markets are attracting increasing investment flows
Nigeria outlook 2019 | Sailing through the stormYinka Odedeyi
The document discusses the outlook for the global economy in 2019. Key points include:
- The global economic outlook is expected to be bumpy in 2019, with rising downside risks and diminishing potential for upside surprises. Factors such as rising interest rates in the US, the ECB ending its asset purchase program, and ongoing trade tensions pose significant risks.
- Growth is expected to slow further in major economies like the Eurozone, UK, Japan, and China, while the US economy may continue expanding thanks to fiscal stimulus. Emerging markets face pressure from rising global yields and trade issues.
- The outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa broadly mirrors the bumpy global outlook. While the IMF forecasts growth
Here are the key points from the Central Bank section:
- The central bank has increased the public sector credit growth ceiling to 10.9% for the second half of the fiscal year, up from its previous projection of 8.5%, in light of higher growth in the first half.
- Interest rates on savings certificates offered by the central bank (around 12%) remain significantly higher than deposit rates offered by commercial banks (6-7%).
- The central bank's monetary policy statement projected GDP growth will be between 7.5-8.2% for fiscal year 2018-19.
- A priority is bringing down default loans by ensuring better corporate governance in the financial sector.
Drawing on data and insight from the Grant Thornton International Business Report (IBR), the Grant Thornton Global Dynamism Index (GDI), the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), this short report considers the outlook for
Latin America in 2014.
Sub-Saharan African countries continue to grow at a steady pace despite difficult global economic conditions. Growth in the region has remained on track supported by resilient domestic demand, strong commodity prices, and accommodative domestic policies. For newly resource-rich countries, strong governance of new mineral revenues will be key to harnessing resource wealth for sustainable development.
Global growth was subdued at 2.1% in 2013 but is expected to improve to 3.0-3.3% in 2014-2015. Inflation remains low worldwide due to excess capacity and unemployment. Unemployment remains high, especially in Europe, with rates over 25% in Greece and Spain. International trade growth weakened to 2.3% in 2013 but is projected to rise to 4.6-5.1% in 2014-2015. Capital flows to emerging markets declined in 2013 and volatility increased due to tapering of US monetary stimulus. Risks to the outlook include a disorderly exit from quantitative easing and slowing growth in large emerging markets.
The document summarizes forecasts for the balance of payments (BOP) in Singapore and Malaysia for 2013 and 2014. For Singapore, growth is expected to be between 3.5-4.0% in 2013 and 2.0-4.0% in 2014. Externally-oriented sectors will support growth as global demand recovers, while some domestic sectors may see slower growth due to tight labor conditions. For Malaysia, the current account surplus is expected to narrow to RM42.7 billion in 2013 due to higher imports and wage payments, contributing to foreign exchange reserves and domestic liquidity.
The global economy is projected to grow at 3.6% in 2014, up from 2.9% growth in 2013. While developed economies like the US, UK, and Germany are expected to grow strongly, some emerging markets face challenges. Business confidence is up globally but lower in BRIC countries. Growth is also expected to be stronger in developing regions than developed economies in 2014, though the gap will be smaller than in past years. Overall the outlook is for continued global recovery but risks remain from the eurozone crisis and tapering of US monetary stimulus.
The document provides an analysis of recent global and African economic trends from the World Bank's Office of the Chief Economist for Africa. Key points include:
- Global growth is projected to strengthen to 3% in 2014, led by a recovery in high-income countries. However, risks remain from financial volatility and a slowdown in capital flows.
- Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa strengthened to 4.7% in 2013, led by strong domestic demand and investment. Excluding South Africa, growth was 6.1%.
- The outlook for the region remains positive, but is sensitive to risks from lower commodity prices and a slowdown in capital flows. Frontier markets are attracting increasing investment flows
Nigeria outlook 2019 | Sailing through the stormYinka Odedeyi
The document discusses the outlook for the global economy in 2019. Key points include:
- The global economic outlook is expected to be bumpy in 2019, with rising downside risks and diminishing potential for upside surprises. Factors such as rising interest rates in the US, the ECB ending its asset purchase program, and ongoing trade tensions pose significant risks.
- Growth is expected to slow further in major economies like the Eurozone, UK, Japan, and China, while the US economy may continue expanding thanks to fiscal stimulus. Emerging markets face pressure from rising global yields and trade issues.
- The outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa broadly mirrors the bumpy global outlook. While the IMF forecasts growth
Here are the key points from the Central Bank section:
- The central bank has increased the public sector credit growth ceiling to 10.9% for the second half of the fiscal year, up from its previous projection of 8.5%, in light of higher growth in the first half.
- Interest rates on savings certificates offered by the central bank (around 12%) remain significantly higher than deposit rates offered by commercial banks (6-7%).
- The central bank's monetary policy statement projected GDP growth will be between 7.5-8.2% for fiscal year 2018-19.
- A priority is bringing down default loans by ensuring better corporate governance in the financial sector.
Drawing on data and insight from the Grant Thornton International Business Report (IBR), the Grant Thornton Global Dynamism Index (GDI), the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), this short report considers the outlook for
Latin America in 2014.
Sub-Saharan African countries continue to grow at a steady pace despite difficult global economic conditions. Growth in the region has remained on track supported by resilient domestic demand, strong commodity prices, and accommodative domestic policies. For newly resource-rich countries, strong governance of new mineral revenues will be key to harnessing resource wealth for sustainable development.
Global growth was subdued at 2.1% in 2013 but is expected to improve to 3.0-3.3% in 2014-2015. Inflation remains low worldwide due to excess capacity and unemployment. Unemployment remains high, especially in Europe, with rates over 25% in Greece and Spain. International trade growth weakened to 2.3% in 2013 but is projected to rise to 4.6-5.1% in 2014-2015. Capital flows to emerging markets declined in 2013 and volatility increased due to tapering of US monetary stimulus. Risks to the outlook include a disorderly exit from quantitative easing and slowing growth in large emerging markets.
The document summarizes forecasts for the balance of payments (BOP) in Singapore and Malaysia for 2013 and 2014. For Singapore, growth is expected to be between 3.5-4.0% in 2013 and 2.0-4.0% in 2014. Externally-oriented sectors will support growth as global demand recovers, while some domestic sectors may see slower growth due to tight labor conditions. For Malaysia, the current account surplus is expected to narrow to RM42.7 billion in 2013 due to higher imports and wage payments, contributing to foreign exchange reserves and domestic liquidity.
Global economies are witnessing two-speed recovery with the US economy showing firm signs of recovery, while growth in Euro Area still languishing in sub-optimal territory. Among the Asian economies, growth in Japan and China too continues to remain tepid. We discuss this in detail in the section on Global Trends in this month’s issue of Economy Matters. In the section on Domestic Trends, we analyze that the economic condition in the present scenario is in greater disarray than it was during the breakout of the global financial crisis of 2008-09, when both government as well as the RBI were quick to respond to the challenges and brought the economy back to recovery path within no time. In Corporate Performance, we examine the sectoral performance in the last fiscal in order to find the sectors which were badly hit in the wake of the current bout of economic crisis. The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on Agriculture, a traditionally important sector of the Indian economy because of its enormous contribution in being the provider of basic source of livelihood to the most of the population in India. However in the recent past various challenges such as low agricultural yield, declining share of public investment, and lack of technological advancements have plagued the sector. We discuss the sector’s challenges and suggest measures to bolster its output. In the Special Article, we discuss India's deteriorating external position in the last few years, manifesting itself in a steady deterioration in the current account which slipped from a surplus at the start of the last decade to a huge deficit of 4.8 per cent in 2012-13. Bulk of the deterioration in current account is attributable to the sharp rise in merchandise trade deficit over the last decade. Ultimately, for India to contain its current account deficit at a more sustainable level of 2.0-2.5 per cent of GDP, it is essential that we ensure competitiveness of our goods and services, so that our imports are contained and exports boosted.
- Real GDP growth in India slowed to 5.0% in 2013/14 due to the impact of US tapering of quantitative easing, supply bottlenecks, and policy uncertainty. Inflation also moderated to 5.5% in October 2014 from an average of 9.5% in 2013/14 due to tighter monetary policy and lower commodity prices.
- The current account deficit narrowed significantly to 1.8% of GDP in 2013/14 from 4.7% in 2012/13 as a result of the Indian Rupee depreciation and gold import restrictions.
- Lending growth moderated to 11.6% by end-March 2014 and further to 10% by end-September 2014 due
The document discusses China's growing dominance over the global economic stage and the impact of China's economic slowdown and currency depreciation. It notes that China's economic troubles in 2015 caused stock market declines, currency volatility, and pressure on commodity exporters around the world. The rest of the global economy will continue to feel significant impacts even as China's economy gradually slows in the coming years. With China's increasing size in the global economy, its health will be a major determinant of overall global economic growth and conditions over the coming decades.
The document provides an analysis of the Indian power sector. It notes that the power sector is one of the largest and most important industries in India. The power sector fulfills the energy requirements of other industries and is critical to economic growth. The document summarizes the sources of power generation in India, with thermal power making up the majority at 83% and sourced primarily from coal. Hydro and nuclear power are also discussed as other sources of generation. Public sector entities have the largest share of installed power capacity in India at over 75%.
The Feb2016 issue of Economy Matters focuses on Union Budget 2016-17. The Global Trends section analyses the prospects of the BRICS economies and oil movement. In the Domestic Trends section, get insights to the Indian GDP, IIP, Inflation, Trade, Economic Survey and Railway Budget.
The document provides an overview of global economic conditions and labor market trends for the first quarter of 2014. It discusses the outlook for economic growth in major regions and countries. While growth is projected to improve modestly worldwide in 2014, there is still divergence across markets. The labor market updates indicate unemployment is expected to continue declining in countries like Germany, UK, and US, while other areas still face challenges. Overall salaries are forecast to rise in most countries, with developed markets seeing increases around 3% and emerging markets higher rates. Recent legislative changes in areas like immigration policy are also covered.
2014 is expected to be a modestly stronger year for the global economy, with GDP growth projected to surpass 3%. The expansion will be led by a moderate strengthening in North America and the slow but steady recovery in Western Europe. On the other hand, many emerging markets continue to face challenges including structural issues and political turmoil that are limiting growth.
This is the "headline" of the Q2 Global Talent Market Quarterly. Have a look at the new report .
MTBiz is for you if you are looking for contemporary information on business, economy and especially on banking industry of Bangladesh. You would also find periodical information on Global Economy and Commodity Markets.
D&B's 2013 mid-year Global Economic Outlook gives an update on regional insights, upgrades and downgrades for countries around the world so far in 2013, as well as a prediction for these economies through 2017.
The global economy is expected to continue expanding at a moderate pace over the coming two years, but policymakers must ensure that instability in financial markets and underlying fragility in major economies are not allowed to derail growth, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook.
Nigeria 2016 outlook a slippery path to recoveryKayode Tinuoye
The document provides an outlook for the global economy in 2016. It finds that global growth will remain fragile as emerging markets face challenges from declining commodity prices and monetary policy divergence across countries. The US economy is expected to continue recovering slowly, while the Eurozone will rely on continued quantitative easing to support growth. Emerging markets and commodity-exporting countries will remain at risk from low commodity prices and a stronger US dollar. Nigeria faces difficult policy choices and needs to implement reforms to navigate current macroeconomic challenges during its recovery.
The document discusses business optimism and the global economic outlook for 2017. It finds that business optimism rose globally in the fourth quarter of 2016 to its highest level in almost two years, as uncertainties from Brexit and the US election were resolved. While challenges remain, businesses intend to pursue growth strategies around the world through investment, hiring, and new markets. The outlook is particularly positive in the US and China, though some regions like Mexico and Russia saw declines in optimism.
Singapore and Malaysia are two of the most important economies in South East Asia. Measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Malaysia is the 36th largest economy in the world, whilst Singapore is the 39th largest. But what is the current outlook for the economies and their banking sectors?
Is the tide rising?
The euro area is turning the corner from recession to recovery. Growth is projected to strengthen to 1 percent in 2014 and 1.4 percent in 2015.
Download full text
The document provides an economic outlook for Sweden and the Baltic countries from Swedbank. It summarizes that global growth is expected to be modest in 2012 but improve slightly in 2013. In Sweden and the Baltic countries, GDP growth in 2012 will range from 0.5-3.3% and increase to 2.1-4.3% in 2013. Unemployment is forecast to remain high but fall gradually. Risks include further instability in the euro area and volatility in commodity prices.
The document provides an economic summary and outlook for Nigeria in July 2016. Some key points:
- Expectations of economic recovery were dashed as the naira fell sharply, growth estimates declined, and power output remained low.
- Inflation jumped to 16.5% while business activity showed only marginal signs of recovery. Oil prices declined further, hurting government revenues.
- Global factors like slower growth in China, lower commodity prices, and cautious monetary policies in developed countries pose risks for Nigeria's economy.
- Domestic challenges include high inflation, fuel scarcity and price increases, and weak manufacturing activity, though some indicators showed slight improvements. The outlook remains uncertain.
This document provides a 7-step process for small business owners to map and improve their business processes. The steps include: 1) describing current pain points, 2) visualizing goals, 3) creating a process map with actors, steps, and decisions, 4) identifying problem areas, 5) analyzing the map for unnecessary steps, 6) designing an improved process map, and 7) implementing and adapting the new process. An example is provided of a company that was able to reduce invoice processing time from 2 weeks to 2 days by streamlining approval processes and delegating approval using this method. Process mapping is presented as a way for companies to visualize opportunities to improve efficiency and productivity.
Looking for excellence and exceptionality everywhere? Then use lifesize cardboard cutouts to stand out in personal sense of decoration when you plan a party. These all-embracing pieces of decoration work fast to change around your party environment and the overall tone of the décor.
Global economies are witnessing two-speed recovery with the US economy showing firm signs of recovery, while growth in Euro Area still languishing in sub-optimal territory. Among the Asian economies, growth in Japan and China too continues to remain tepid. We discuss this in detail in the section on Global Trends in this month’s issue of Economy Matters. In the section on Domestic Trends, we analyze that the economic condition in the present scenario is in greater disarray than it was during the breakout of the global financial crisis of 2008-09, when both government as well as the RBI were quick to respond to the challenges and brought the economy back to recovery path within no time. In Corporate Performance, we examine the sectoral performance in the last fiscal in order to find the sectors which were badly hit in the wake of the current bout of economic crisis. The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on Agriculture, a traditionally important sector of the Indian economy because of its enormous contribution in being the provider of basic source of livelihood to the most of the population in India. However in the recent past various challenges such as low agricultural yield, declining share of public investment, and lack of technological advancements have plagued the sector. We discuss the sector’s challenges and suggest measures to bolster its output. In the Special Article, we discuss India's deteriorating external position in the last few years, manifesting itself in a steady deterioration in the current account which slipped from a surplus at the start of the last decade to a huge deficit of 4.8 per cent in 2012-13. Bulk of the deterioration in current account is attributable to the sharp rise in merchandise trade deficit over the last decade. Ultimately, for India to contain its current account deficit at a more sustainable level of 2.0-2.5 per cent of GDP, it is essential that we ensure competitiveness of our goods and services, so that our imports are contained and exports boosted.
- Real GDP growth in India slowed to 5.0% in 2013/14 due to the impact of US tapering of quantitative easing, supply bottlenecks, and policy uncertainty. Inflation also moderated to 5.5% in October 2014 from an average of 9.5% in 2013/14 due to tighter monetary policy and lower commodity prices.
- The current account deficit narrowed significantly to 1.8% of GDP in 2013/14 from 4.7% in 2012/13 as a result of the Indian Rupee depreciation and gold import restrictions.
- Lending growth moderated to 11.6% by end-March 2014 and further to 10% by end-September 2014 due
The document discusses China's growing dominance over the global economic stage and the impact of China's economic slowdown and currency depreciation. It notes that China's economic troubles in 2015 caused stock market declines, currency volatility, and pressure on commodity exporters around the world. The rest of the global economy will continue to feel significant impacts even as China's economy gradually slows in the coming years. With China's increasing size in the global economy, its health will be a major determinant of overall global economic growth and conditions over the coming decades.
The document provides an analysis of the Indian power sector. It notes that the power sector is one of the largest and most important industries in India. The power sector fulfills the energy requirements of other industries and is critical to economic growth. The document summarizes the sources of power generation in India, with thermal power making up the majority at 83% and sourced primarily from coal. Hydro and nuclear power are also discussed as other sources of generation. Public sector entities have the largest share of installed power capacity in India at over 75%.
The Feb2016 issue of Economy Matters focuses on Union Budget 2016-17. The Global Trends section analyses the prospects of the BRICS economies and oil movement. In the Domestic Trends section, get insights to the Indian GDP, IIP, Inflation, Trade, Economic Survey and Railway Budget.
The document provides an overview of global economic conditions and labor market trends for the first quarter of 2014. It discusses the outlook for economic growth in major regions and countries. While growth is projected to improve modestly worldwide in 2014, there is still divergence across markets. The labor market updates indicate unemployment is expected to continue declining in countries like Germany, UK, and US, while other areas still face challenges. Overall salaries are forecast to rise in most countries, with developed markets seeing increases around 3% and emerging markets higher rates. Recent legislative changes in areas like immigration policy are also covered.
2014 is expected to be a modestly stronger year for the global economy, with GDP growth projected to surpass 3%. The expansion will be led by a moderate strengthening in North America and the slow but steady recovery in Western Europe. On the other hand, many emerging markets continue to face challenges including structural issues and political turmoil that are limiting growth.
This is the "headline" of the Q2 Global Talent Market Quarterly. Have a look at the new report .
MTBiz is for you if you are looking for contemporary information on business, economy and especially on banking industry of Bangladesh. You would also find periodical information on Global Economy and Commodity Markets.
D&B's 2013 mid-year Global Economic Outlook gives an update on regional insights, upgrades and downgrades for countries around the world so far in 2013, as well as a prediction for these economies through 2017.
The global economy is expected to continue expanding at a moderate pace over the coming two years, but policymakers must ensure that instability in financial markets and underlying fragility in major economies are not allowed to derail growth, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook.
Nigeria 2016 outlook a slippery path to recoveryKayode Tinuoye
The document provides an outlook for the global economy in 2016. It finds that global growth will remain fragile as emerging markets face challenges from declining commodity prices and monetary policy divergence across countries. The US economy is expected to continue recovering slowly, while the Eurozone will rely on continued quantitative easing to support growth. Emerging markets and commodity-exporting countries will remain at risk from low commodity prices and a stronger US dollar. Nigeria faces difficult policy choices and needs to implement reforms to navigate current macroeconomic challenges during its recovery.
The document discusses business optimism and the global economic outlook for 2017. It finds that business optimism rose globally in the fourth quarter of 2016 to its highest level in almost two years, as uncertainties from Brexit and the US election were resolved. While challenges remain, businesses intend to pursue growth strategies around the world through investment, hiring, and new markets. The outlook is particularly positive in the US and China, though some regions like Mexico and Russia saw declines in optimism.
Singapore and Malaysia are two of the most important economies in South East Asia. Measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Malaysia is the 36th largest economy in the world, whilst Singapore is the 39th largest. But what is the current outlook for the economies and their banking sectors?
Is the tide rising?
The euro area is turning the corner from recession to recovery. Growth is projected to strengthen to 1 percent in 2014 and 1.4 percent in 2015.
Download full text
The document provides an economic outlook for Sweden and the Baltic countries from Swedbank. It summarizes that global growth is expected to be modest in 2012 but improve slightly in 2013. In Sweden and the Baltic countries, GDP growth in 2012 will range from 0.5-3.3% and increase to 2.1-4.3% in 2013. Unemployment is forecast to remain high but fall gradually. Risks include further instability in the euro area and volatility in commodity prices.
The document provides an economic summary and outlook for Nigeria in July 2016. Some key points:
- Expectations of economic recovery were dashed as the naira fell sharply, growth estimates declined, and power output remained low.
- Inflation jumped to 16.5% while business activity showed only marginal signs of recovery. Oil prices declined further, hurting government revenues.
- Global factors like slower growth in China, lower commodity prices, and cautious monetary policies in developed countries pose risks for Nigeria's economy.
- Domestic challenges include high inflation, fuel scarcity and price increases, and weak manufacturing activity, though some indicators showed slight improvements. The outlook remains uncertain.
This document provides a 7-step process for small business owners to map and improve their business processes. The steps include: 1) describing current pain points, 2) visualizing goals, 3) creating a process map with actors, steps, and decisions, 4) identifying problem areas, 5) analyzing the map for unnecessary steps, 6) designing an improved process map, and 7) implementing and adapting the new process. An example is provided of a company that was able to reduce invoice processing time from 2 weeks to 2 days by streamlining approval processes and delegating approval using this method. Process mapping is presented as a way for companies to visualize opportunities to improve efficiency and productivity.
Looking for excellence and exceptionality everywhere? Then use lifesize cardboard cutouts to stand out in personal sense of decoration when you plan a party. These all-embracing pieces of decoration work fast to change around your party environment and the overall tone of the décor.
This report draws on over 10,000 interviews with business leaders as well as economic forecast data to better understand the growth opportunities and challenges facing dynamic companies over the next 12 months.
This monthly briefing highlights that global employment remains a challenge; the United States Federal Reserve faces challenges in adjusting its monetary policy and that financial markets in emerging economies attempted to stabilize.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_mb.shtml
Nigeria outlook 2018 | The silver liningYinka Odedeyi
The document provides an outlook for the global economy in 2018. It discusses that while growth is expected to continue, there are some risks. Growth is forecasted to moderate slightly to 3.7% in 2018 as some countries reach late stages of their economic cycles. Emerging markets are expected to lead growth at 4.9% due to higher commodity prices and demand. The US economy remains strong but fiscal policy will be a key driver of continued growth. European growth is projected at 2.1% despite Brexit uncertainties. India is highlighted as a new growth engine in emerging markets. Overall the global economic picture remains positive but monetary tightening and geopolitical tensions pose downside risks.
Where Is The Global Economy Heading, According to QNB Group?QNB Group
The document summarizes QNB Group's outlook on the global economy. It finds that advanced economies like the US and Eurozone will see stagnant or weak growth in 2013-2014. Emerging markets will also slow due to capital outflows from anticipated US tapering. However, QNB believes a few areas will be bright spots and help drive global growth - China is expected to grow around 8% annually, sub-Saharan Africa over 6.5-7%, and GCC countries around 4.5-5% led by Qatar at 6.5-6.8%. Overall the global economic horizon is clouded but these regions may help offset weakness in other areas.
Qnb group imf outlook may be optimistic and mena growth bucks global trendsQNB Group
The IMF has again lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2013 to 3.3% and does not expect growth of 4% until 2014. However, the IMF outlook may be too optimistic as growth is slowing in major economies like the Eurozone, US, and China. The only regions that accelerated in 2012 were MENA and ASEAN-5, but the IMF expects growth to decelerate in both regions in 2013. Within MENA, growth has been stronger for oil exporters, but hydrocarbon production and exports are expected to level off in 2013, capping regional growth.
- Global economic growth remains subdued in 2013 and is expected to slowly gain momentum in 2014, but will remain below potential.
- Unemployment remains high in many developed countries like the euro area and US.
- Short-term global risks have diminished but new medium-term risks have emerged from unconventional monetary policies.
- Real economies remain sluggish while financial markets have improved, but growth is expected to be constrained by fiscal austerity and structural challenges.
Global Economic Prospects, January 2014WB_Research
The document is a report from the World Bank that provides projections for the global economy. It forecasts that global GDP growth will increase from 2.4% in 2013 to 3.2% in 2014, and then stabilize at 3.4-3.5% in 2015-2016. Growth is expected to be led by high-income countries as their recoveries continue. Developing country growth will also increase but at a slower pace than previously expected, reaching 5.3% in 2014, 5.5% in 2015, and 5.7% in 2016. Acceleration will be limited in regions that have already fully recovered. Capital flows to developing countries are projected to decline only marginally from 4.6% to 4.
This monthly briefing highlights that the world economy is expected to improve in 2014; that unemployment rates remain a major challenge; and downside risks to the baseline scenario persist.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_mb.shtml
European leaders could be forgiven for feeling they are being besieged from all angles.
From the East, tensions with Russia over Ukraine have echoes of the Cold War, dampening business growth hopes in neighbouring economies and highlighting reliance on Russian natural resources.
Europe is facing multiple challenges from within and outside its borders that are impacting its economic outlook. However, the region has made significant economic progress over the past year. Many economies that were hardest hit by the sovereign debt crisis like Ireland and Spain are seeing robust growth, while the EU and eurozone as a whole posted acceleration in GDP growth in 2014. Business confidence in Europe has also risen above global levels for the first time in years due to improved growth prospects and ECB action. Nonetheless, high unemployment, debt burdens, and geopolitical tensions continue to pose threats to European stability and growth.
The document provides an overview and outlook of the Singapore residential property market in 2015. It finds that the market will likely remain weak in 2015, with private home prices expected to soften by 4-6% and HDB resale prices by 6-8%, due to three main factors: 1) the government is unlikely to ease property cooling measures as the market correction has not been significant enough; 2) there remains weak demand and massive upcoming supply, which could increase vacancy rates above 10%; and 3) the threat of rising interest rates from an expected US rate hike makes mortgages more expensive and lowers rental returns. The outlook paints a bleak picture for the residential market in 2015.
Microclimates of opportunity - Real estate & construction report 2014Misbah Hussain
This report draws on more than 700 interviews with business leaders in 45 economies to understand how the real estate & construction sector is recovering from the financial crisis, where the opportunities lie and what businesses are doing to keep their operations running
smoothly and free from fraud.
Domestic demand in some of the key rapid-growth markets (RGMs) has faltered recently and - whilst most rapid growth market economies continue to prosper - their growth trajectory seems more varied. Increasingly investors are reassessing risks.
We currently project RGMs to grow by 4.6% on average in 2013 and more close to 6% in subsequent years.
The document summarizes the current global macroeconomic environment. It finds that global economic growth has weakened over the past six months and is expected to remain modest in 2013. While fiscal policy is constrained by high debt levels, monetary policy remains loose but has not been effective at boosting growth. The Eurozone is expected to contract again in 2013, while growth in the US and emerging markets is stable but weak. Risks to the outlook are high given uncertainty around fiscal and monetary policies and the unresolved Eurozone crisis.
ZenithOptimedia predicts global ad expenditure will grow 4.9% in 2015, reaching US$545 billion by the end of the year.
Our forecast for 2015 is down (by 0.4 percentage points) on our last forecast in September, with small downward revisions across many regions of the world. This indicates a minor but widespread decline in advertiser confidence, related to conflict in Ukraine and weak economic growth at the heart of the Eurozone.
MTBiz is for you if you are looking for contemporary information on business, economy and especially on banking industry of Bangladesh. You would also find periodical information on Global Economy and Commodity Markets.
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The document provides an overview of global economic conditions and labor markets in Q3 2014. It discusses modest projected global growth, varying regional economic performances, and stable to positive labor market outlooks across most regions. Key points covered include ongoing challenges in emerging markets, the strengthening European recovery, steady US job growth and falling unemployment, and stable but slowing growth in China and Japan. The document also summarizes new temporary staffing regulations across several countries.
Could the Emerging Market Slowdown Jeopardize the Global Recovery?QNB Group
The document discusses the potential impact of slowing growth in emerging markets on the global economic recovery. It notes that emerging market growth has sharply declined, affecting global export demand and slowing growth in advanced economies. However, if advanced economies continue their recovery and make up for weaker emerging market demand, the global economy could maintain its momentum. The recovery depends on the normalization of US monetary policy - a gradual recovery in the US would support advanced economies while further slowing emerging markets, leading to a more balanced global recovery.
The document discusses opportunities and challenges in the global real estate and construction sector based on a survey of over 700 business leaders. Key points include:
- The sector outlook is brightening with expectations for profitability, jobs, and orders rising after being hit hard by the financial crisis.
- Optimism is highest in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and North America and lowest in Southern Europe and the Eurozone.
- Economic uncertainty remains the top business constraint globally, while regulations and red tape are bigger concerns in emerging markets.
The document provides an outlook for 2016, summarizing that:
1) China has committed to ensuring 7% growth for the immediate future through government intervention, but rebalancing away from investment is necessary long-term which will slow growth rates.
2) In Europe, GDP growth has accelerated from under 1% to 1.6% since late 2014, supported by ECB monetary easing expanding credit.
3) In the US, growth in construction employment and spending is contributing to a 5% rise in personal consumption and will likely continue supporting the economy in 2016.
Similar to Global economy in 2014 (web version) (20)
2. The global economy in 2014
2014 in numbers
Drawing on data and insight from the Grant Thornton
International Business Report (IBR), the Economist Intelligence
Unit (EIU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), this short
report considers the outlook for the global economy in 2014.
Net business optimism
28% 22%
€€
number of economies
21%
in the eurozone
38% Global GDP share
of Trans Pacific
BRIC
€
18
G7
following accession
of Latvia
India and Indonesia's
Partnership economies
share of global population
Both have elections in 2014
600,000
Forecast GDP growth rates
for FIFA World Cup
Global
expected vistors to Brazil
3.6%
5.1%
Developing
Developed
2%
3. The global economy in 2014
Foreword
The global economy looks much healthier as we begin 2014
compared with 12 months ago. Then, fears over the ‘fiscal cliff’
in the United States, the recession in Europe and the
rebalancing of China’s economy were dampening growth
prospects across the world, and globally, business confidence
was at its lowest since the financial crisis.
Growth prospects looking a lot brighter
Germany
US
UK
Japan
Though some are less bright
Russia
Brazil
Italy
France
Today, global growth prospects look
a lot brighter with most large developed
economies, especially Japan, the United
Kingdom and the United States expected
to grow strongly in 2014. The optimism
of business leaders in these economies has
increased dramatically over the past year
and the hope is that rising confidence will
encourage them to invest more in their
operations and their people to achieve
long-term, sustainable growth.
However, the situation in many
emerging markets is something of a
mirror image. Since the United States
Federal Reserve announced plans to begin
tapering its huge quantitative easing
programme, many economies have seen
their currencies slide and growth suffer.
Business confidence in China, Brazil,
India and South Africa all fell to record
lows in 2013, and in Russia and Turkey
to record lows since the financial crisis
began. Confidence has rebounded,
especially in China and India, but with
many of these economies suffering from
slowing growth, sliding currencies and
social unrest, 2014 could be a period of
significant adjustment.
The eurozone crisis also remains
delicately poised. Following a contraction
of 0.4% in 2013, the currency bloc is
expected to return to growth in 2014, but
while Germany is expected to expand
robustly, the next two largest economies
in the currency bloc, France and Italy,
look set to struggle and their business
communities are amongst the least
optimistic in the world.
At the macro-level, we are seeing a
convergence in growth prospects. In the
years following the financial crisis,
emerging economies drove growth in
global output but this dynamic has shifted
in recent months. The Economist
Intelligence Unit expects that growth in
non-OECD economies will outstrip that
of those in the OECD in 2014, but that
the gap will be the smallest since 2008.
This is an important development: a more
stable, balanced global economy is good
for business growth prospects.
There will be much change over the
next year, but I am looking forward to it
with optimism.
Ed Nusbaum
Global CEO
Grant Thornton
The global economy in 2014 3
4. The global economy in 2014
Economic outlook
The global economy grew by approximately 2.9% in 2013, its slowest rate since 2009.
However, prospects for 2014 look brighter with robust growth forecast in large developed
economies such as Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States. Because of
their scale, a recovery in these economies is likely to boost global growth to 3.6% in 2014,
accelerating to 4.0% in 2015. Having contracted marginally in 2013, the eurozone is
expected to return to growth, although the outlook remains tricky with
debt levels continuing to rise, especially in troubled southern Europe.
Growth in developing economies as a
whole slowed in 2013, but they are still
expected to expand faster than developed
economy peers in 2014. The economies of
developing Asia, led by China, India and
Indonesia, are expected to grow by 6.5%
in 2014. Strong growth is also forecast in
Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East,
and North Africa is expected to rebound
after a tough 2013 complicated by the
fallout from the Arab Spring. Central and
Eastern European economies have
suffered as major regional export markets
have dried up but growth prospects are
improving despite a lack of necessary
reforms in Russia. Growth in Latin
America continues to disappoint with
Argentina and Brazil, despite gearing up
to host the FIFA World Cup in June,
seemingly stuck in a rut, although recent
bold reforms in Mexico bode well for
future growth.
This healthier outlook for the global
economy is complicated not only by the
fragility of the eurozone, but also by the
reduction of the US Federal Reserve’s
massive quantitative easing programme.
Talk of tapering sent many emerging
markets into a negative spiral in the
middle of 2013 and while the reaction
to the real thing has been less dramatic
so far, the currencies of Brazil, India,
Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey – the
so-called ‘fragile five’ – are all thought to
Global economy
expanded by
2.9%
in 2013
be at risk and central banks have
started to raise interest rates sharply.
In developed markets, a slowdown
in the pace of bond-buying could
precipitate a rise in interest rates
from record lows, dampening
business investment and consumer
spending power, potentially choking
off the recovery.
ForecastGDP growth rates % %
Forecast GDP growth rates
Forecast GDP growth rates %
Central and Eastern Europe
Central and Eastern Europe
2.7
Latin America and the Caribbean
Latin America and the Caribbean
3.3
3.1
Middle East and North Africa
Middle East and North Africa
3.5
3.8
Emerging markets and developing economies
Emerging markets and developing economies
4.2
5.1
Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
6.0
Developing Asia
Developing Asia
Euro area
Euro area
Advanced economies
Advanced economies
Non-euro/G7 advanced economies
Non-euro/G7 advanced economies
World
World
4.2
5.7
6.5
1.0
6.6
1.4
2.0
2.5
3.1
3.3
3.6
4.0
The global economy in 2014 4
5. The global economy in 2014
Business growth prospects
Global business optimism remained fairly consistent in 2013, averaging net 28%
across the year. However the contrast with the previous year is striking: 2012 average
optimism stood at 12% and just 4% of business leaders expressed optimism in the
economic outlook for 2013, compared to 27% for 2014. Interestingly, while G7
business leaders grew more confident as 2013 progressed (up 44 percentage points),
optimism in the BRIC economies has slowly been eroded (down 17 pp). Globally,
the most optimistic regions are Southeast Asia (45%) and the Nordics (39%).
Rising business confidence in the economic
outlook has fuelled a resurgence in growth
prospects with businesses globally more
willing to take on risks and expand their
operations. Revenue growth expectations
for the year ahead climbed from net 45%
last year to 52% as we head into 2014.
Similarly, 40% of business leaders expect
profits to climb in 2014, compared with
35% in 2013. Again, the rebalancing of the
global economy is in evidence: BRIC
businesses are more confident about rising
profits (47%) but this is down 28pp from
this time last year, while G7 business
leaders’ expectations have risen 16pp to
36%. Globally, Eastern Europe and North
America (both 52%) are the most bullish
about increasing profitability in 2014.
Business leaders are also planning to
step up their investment activity in 2014:
net 36% expect to increase spending on
plant and machinery over the next 12
months, compared with 31% this time last
year. A slide in BRIC investment activity
(down 4pp) driven by China is outweighed
by a rise in expected activity across the G7
(up 7pp) boosted by gains in Germany, the
UK and the US. Despite slowing economic
growth, 42% of business leaders in Latin
America expect to raise investment in plant
and machinery in 2014, unchanged from
3.3
the start of 2013.
However, there are fewer signs this
uptick in confidence will feed through into
higher employee salaries. Globally, 67%
of businesses expect to offer pay rises in
Plant and machinery
investment expectations
climb to
36%
in 2014
2014, unchanged from this time last year,
with 14% expecting to pay above the rate
of inflation, a marginal increase from 13%
recorded 12 months previously. People in
North America (18%) are most likely to
Net percentage expecting to increase profits (next 12 months)
get an inflation-busting rise.
Asia
Eastern
Pacific
BRIC
Nordic
45
47
47
(excl. Japan)
G7
North
52
52
Latin Europe America
America
Global
Eurozone
Southern
Europe
5
21
36
40
48
Net percentage of businesses expecting to increase profits (next 12 months)
The global economy in 2014 5
6. The global economy in 2014
Employment prospects
Improvements in labour markets tend to lag recoveries as businesses work off
excess capacity and wait for uncertainty to subside before hiring new people.
Consequently, employment indicators across the world remain fairly subdued:
just net 22% of businesses hired workers in 2013, down from 24% in 2012 and
well below pre-crisis levels (44% in 2007).
Businesses are slightly more optimistic as
regards hiring in 2014; net 29% expect to
hire people, up from 22% this time last
year. G7 businesses are much more
confident: 28% plan to increase staff
numbers, compared with 19% 12 months
ago. Businesses are most likely to expand
their workforces in Southeast Asia (37%),
North America and Latin America (both
36%) in 2014 compared to just 11% of
peers in the eurozone.
Unemployment rates in many developed
economies soared as a result of the
financial crisis but have largely improved
since. Interestingly, the central banks of
two of these economies, the UK and the
US, have expressly linked raising interest
rates (from close to zero today) to absolute
improvements in the unemployment rate.
Low interest rates have allowed businesses
and consumers to borrow cheaply,
and subsequent improvements in the
housing markets of these two economies
have boosted the wealth effect and
consequently consumer demand. The
hope is that any dampening of demand
caused by higher interest rates will be
offset by higher employment.
By contrast, the jobless rate in the
eurozone remains stuck above 12%. The
German labour market remains robust but
unemployment rates in Greece and Spain
are above 25% and well into double
figures in both France and Italy.
22%
of businesses
hired workers
Many developing economies face a very
different problem: that of a lack of skilled
workers. This is a particular problem in
much of Asia. In India, 50% of businesses
cite a lack of talent as a constraint on their
growth plans, rising to 56% in Vietnam
and 60% in Thailand. Indonesia (42%)
and China (32%) also face significant
challenges in getting the right people
to help grow their operations.
in 2013
2% 11% 28% 29% 31% 31% 32% 36% 36%
Southern
Europe
Eurozone
G7
Global
BRIC
Asia
Pacific
(excl. Japan)
Eastern
Europe
Latin
America
North
America
37%
Southeast
Asia
Net percentage of businesses expecting to hire workers (next 12 months)
The global economy in 2014 6
7. The global economy in 2014
Business growth constraints
With the global economy still in recovery, business leaders rank economic
uncertainty (42%) as the principal constraint on their expansion plans in 2014.
The trade-off between risk and reward is intrinsic to any analysis of business
growth prospects; a certain level of uncertainty is to be expected. But this is
a major issue for businesses across the globe: more than two in five business
leaders in both the G7 and BRIC economies feel their growth plans constrained
by uncertainty; in other words, they are not confident enough in the potential
rewards to risk investment in the year ahead.
Bureaucracy is the second most pressing
constraint globally (34%) although it has
eased off compared with this time last
year in both G7 and BRIC economies.
Businesses in southern Europe are most
concerned (49%) while peers in the
Nordics are least concerned (17%).
Demand conditions have improved
markedly in recent years as consumer
spending and world trade recover. In
2009, 49% of business leaders cited a
shortage of orders as a constraint on
growth but this dropped to 33% in 2013,
close to pre-crisis levels. 32% of business
leaders expect demand constraints to
hinder growth prospects in 2014, down
from 38% this time last year with
conditions improving notably in North
America (down 14pp to 17%) but
remaining elevated in Asia-Pacific (49%).
A lack of skilled workers has climbed in
the last four years, a further indication
that the recovery is taking hold, to average
30% in 2013. It is a much greater concern
in BRIC economies (39%) where skills
and unemployment are generally lower
compared with the G7 economies (26%).
Businesses in Southeast Asia (46%) are
struggling most to fill talent gaps with
peers in southern Europe (15%) at the
other end of the spectrum.
Both exchange rate fluctuations (37%)
and a shortage of finance (32%) are much
greater problems for businesses in the
BRIC economies compared with peers in
the G7. These results highlight the issues
businesses in these developing economies
could face as the US Federal Reserve steps
up the tapering of asset purchases.
Percentage of businesses citing factors
as a constraint on growth
€€
44
41
Economic uncertainty
42
¥¥
37
€ €
XR fluctuations
32
35
Regulations & red tape
29
Shortage of orders
39
26
Lack of skilled workers
BRIC
17
Shortage of finance
27
41
16 ¥
¥
12
ICT infrastructure
25
9
Transport infrastructure
G7
The global economy in 2014 7