Content: - The German Power System - History of phase-out decisions - Electricity Prices - Import Export Effects

1. Germany’s nuclear phase-out
Charlotte Loreck
Energy and Climate Division
Öko-Institut e.V.
Berlin

2. Content
• The German Power System
• History of phase-out decisions
• Electricity Prices
• Import Export Effects
2

3. Gross electricity production in Germany
Consumption: 604 TWh
2010: 621 TWh Export: 17 TWh
Oil, Others
Lignite
Renewables
23,7%
16,5%
Nuclear 22,6% 18,7%
Hard coal
13,6%
Natural gas
3
Source: AG Energiebilanzen; own figure

4. History of nuclear phase-out
1998 Elections & change of government (Social Democrats & Green)
2000 First phase-out deal
2002 Atomic Energy Act

5. History of nuclear phase-out
phase-out deal (15 June 2000)
1 Jan. 2000
2670 TWh 2623 TWh !

6. History of nuclear phase-out
Electricity from nuclear power plants - Atomic Energy Act 2002
180
Ist-Daten Projektion Obrigheim
Stade
160
Biblis A
Neckarwestheim 1
140
Biblis B
Brunsbüttel
120 Isar 1
Unterweser
100 Philippsburg 1
TWh
Grafenrheinfeld
80 Krümmel
Gundremmingen B
60 Philippsburg 2
Grohnde
40 Gundremmingen C
Brokdorf
Isar 2
20
Emsland
Neckarwestheim 2
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
6

7. History of nuclear phase-out
1998 Elections & change of government (Social Democrats & Green)
2000 First phase-out deal
2002 Atomic Energy Act
2005 Elections & change of government (Conservative & Social Democrats)
2009 Elections & change of government (Conservative & Liberal)
Oct. 2010 Atomic Energy Act: lifetime extentsion
+ 8 years for 7 oldest plants
+ 14 years for 10 least old plants

8. History of nuclear phase-out
Electricity from nuclear power plants - Atomic Energy Act 2010
with life time extension
180
Ist-Daten Projektion Obrigheim
Stade
160
Biblis A
Neckarwestheim 1
140
Biblis B
Brunsbüttel
120 Isar 1
Unterweser
100 Philippsburg 1
TWh
Grafenrheinfeld
80 Krümmel
Gundremmingen B
60 Philippsburg 2
Grohnde
40 Gundremmingen C
Brokdorf
Isar 2
20
Emsland
Neckarwestheim 2
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
8

9. History of nuclear phase-out
1998 Elections & change of government (Social Democrats & Green)
2000 First phase-out deal
2002 Atomic Energy Act
2005 Elections & change of government (Conservative & Social Democrats)
2009 Elections & change of government (Conservative & Liberal)
Oct. 2010 Atomic Energy Act: lifetime extentsion
Mar. 2011 Moratorium:
8 nuclear power plants shut down immediately for 3 months
Jun. 2011 Atomic Energy Act: phase-out
9

10. History of nuclear phase-out
Atomic Energy Act 2011:
8 plants stay off,
9 running until 2015 - 2022
Source: http://de.wikiactu.com/ 10

11. History of nuclear phase-out
Electricity from nuclear power plants - Atomic Energy Act 2011
180
Obrigheim
Ist-Daten Projektion
Stade
160
Biblis A
Neckarwestheim 1
140 Biblis B
Brunsbüttel
120 Isar 1
Unterweser
100 Philippsburg 1
TWh
Grafenrheinfeld
80 Krümmel
Gundremmingen B
60 Philippsburg 2
Grohnde
40 Gundremmingen C
Brokdorf
Isar 2
20
Emsland
Neckarwestheim 2
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
11

12. Possible quick substitutions
for nuclear power plants
21 GW 20,5 GW (17 plants)
5 GW
2,8 GW
2 GW
2,5 GW
8,7 GW
operating moth- DSM capacitiy additional nuclear
capacity balled under capacity capacity
capacity construction (RES & gas) 12
(net)

13. Effect on electricity prices
13

14. Merit order
120
Laufwasser
Laufwasser
Water
PV
PV
Photovoltaics
Wind
Wind
Wind
100
Biomasse
Biomass
Biomasse
Kernenergie
Nuclear
Kernenergie
Braunkohle
Lignite
Braunkohle
80 Steinkohle
Hard coal
Steinkohle
price
Erdgas
Erdgas gas
Natural
Heizöl
Oil
Heizöl
€/MWh
60
40
20
0
Capacity (GW)
14
demand

15. Observed effects on electricity prices
- short term
80
70
60
50
40
€/MWh
Phelix Future Peak 2012
Phelix Future Peak 2011-Q2
30
Phelix Future Peak 2011-Q3
20 Phelix Future Base 2012
Phelix Future Base 2011-Q2
10 Phelix Future Base 2011-Q3
0
Data: EEX; own figure 15

16. Observed effects on electricity prices
- long term
Source: EEX 16

17. (Nuclear) imports?
17

18. Typical load flow situation
Source: BDEW 18

19. Daily net physical load flows
Germany – neighbours Spring 2011
Source: BDEW 19

20. Monthly net physical load flows
Germany – neighbours
3000
1 2011
2000 2
GWh 1000 3
4
0 5
6
‐1000
7
‐2000 8
AT CH CZ DK FR LU NL PL SE
3000 1
2010
2
2000 3
4
1000 5
GWh
6
0 7
8
‐1000 9
10
‐2000 11
AT CH CZ DK FR LU NL PL SE 12 20
Data: Entso-e, own figure

21. Traded flows
Czech Republic - Germany
Source: BNetzA, Auswirkungen des Kernkraftwerk-Moratoriums, 26.Mai 2011 21

22. Net physical load flows
Czech Republic - Germany
March 14th 2011
3.000
2007
2008
2.500 2009
2010
2.000 2011
1.500
1.000
MW
500
0
-500
-1.000
-1.500
-2.000
0
168
336
504
672
840
1008
1176
1344
1512
1680
1848
2016
2184
2352
2520
2688
2856
3024
3192
3360
3528
3696
3864
4032
4200
4368
4536
4704
4872
hours since March 1st
22
Data: Entso-e, own figure

23. Wind, Solar, Import - Export
23
Source: BNetzA

24. Conclusions
• Nuclear phase-out plans were legally in force for the
past 10 years
except between Oct 2010 - March 2011
• Security of supply: enough replacement options
• Small effects on electricity prices
• No nuclear imports
• Future electricity system: renewable
24

25. Thank you!
www.oeko.de
c.loreck@oeko.de
25