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Geopolitics and Business, The Clash of Civilizations.pptx
- 1. Geopolitics and Business SamuelHuntington and the Clash of Civilizations
- 2. (April 18, 1927– December 24, 2008) Samuel P. Huntington
- 4. Source of Tomorrow’sConflicts • Huntington’s thesis (1993): in the post-Cold War world, the most important distinctions among people are not ideological, political or economic. – instead the great division among humankind and the dominating source of conflict is cultural. • National states will remain the most powerful actors and principal conflict will occur between nations and groups of different civilizations. • However, the Clash of Civilizations will dominate global politics.
- 5. “In this new(post-Cold war) world, the most pervasive, important and dangerous conflicts will not be between social classes, rich and poor, or other economically defined groups, but between peoples belonging to different cultural entities. Tribal wars and ethnic conflicts will occur within civilizations. And the most dangerous cultural conflicts are those along the fault lines between civilizations.”
- 6. Nine Major Civilizations •TheUnited States and Canada •Western Europe and Australia Western •Russia •Parts of Eastern Europe Slavic Orthodox •China •Parts of Southeast Asia Sinic (Confucian) •Most of the Middle East •Much of Northern Africa and parts of Southeast Asia Islamic •Mongolia and Tibet •Parts of Southeast Asia Buddhist •Mexico, Central America and much of the Caribbean •Most of South America Latin American •India Hindu •Japan Japanese •Central and Southern Africa African
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- 8. Fault Lines betweenCivilizations • Fault lines between civilizations are replacing the political and ideological boundaries of the Cold War as the flashpoint for crisis and bloodshed. • The ideological divisions of Europe have disappeared, while the cultural divisions of Europe between Western Christianity, Orthodox Christianity, and Islam have reemerged. Western Christianity Orthodox Christianity Islam
- 9. Professor of internationalrelations William Wallace suggests that the most significant dividing line in Europe may well be the eastern boundary of Western Christianity in the year 1500. This line runs along what are now the boundaries between Finland and Russia and between the Baltic states and Russia, cuts through Belarus and Ukraine separating the more Catholic western Ukraine from Orthodox eastern Ukraine, swings westward separating Transylvania from the rest of Romania, and then goes through Yugoslavia almost exactly along the line now separating Croatia and Slovenia from the rest of Yugoslavia.
- 10. In the Balkansthis line, of course, coincides with the historic boundary between the Hapsburg and Ottoman empires. The peoples to the north and west of this line are Protestant or Catholic; they shared the common experiences of European history - feudalism, the Renaissance, the Reformation, the Enlightenment, the French Revolution, the Industrial Revolution; they are generally economically better off than the peoples to the east; and they may now look forward to increasing involvement in a common European economy and to the consolidation of democratic political systems.
- 11. The peoples tothe east and south of this line are Orthodox or Muslim; they historically belonged to the Ottoman or Tsarist empires and were only lightly touched by the shaping events in the rest of Europe; they are generally less advanced economically; they seem much less likely to develop stable democratic political systems.
- 12. Two Levels ofthe Clash • States from different civilizations compete for relative military and economic power, struggle over control of international institutions and third parties, and competitively promote their particular political and religious values. Macro Level • Adjacent groups along the fault lines between civilizations struggle, often violently, over the control of territory and each other. Micro Level
- 13. Reasons for theClash • Civilizations are shaped by history, language, culture, tradition, and most importantly, religion. • World is becoming smaller place. • Economic modernization and social change throughout the world are separating people from longstanding local identities. • Growth of civilization-consciousness is greater due to the dual role of the West. • Cultural characteristics and differences are less mutable and less easily compromised and resolved than political and economic ones. • Economic regionalism is increasing.
- 14. The West versusthe Rest • The West is at the peak of its power. • Decisions made at UN Security Council or IMF (International Monetary Fund) reflect the interests of West and are presented as the desire of the world community. • Many non-Westerners see the West as using international institutions, military power and economic resources to run the world in ways that will maintain western predominance, protect Western interests and promote western political and economic values.
- 15. The West versusthe Rest • Two sources of conflict between the West and other civilizations: 1. Difference in power and struggles for military, economic and institutional power. 2. Basic values and beliefs.
- 16. Source: Samuel Huntington,‘Clash of Civilizations’ Table 3.3 p.65 from Barrett World Christian Encyclopedia OUP 1982 (2000 estimated) 2nd ed. Pub 2001 ‘mega-census’ by Christian clergy. 27 8 12 13 0.2 38 31 3 15 13 20 15 30 3 17 14 21 12 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Western Christianity Orthodox Muslim Hindu None/athiest Other 1900 1970 2000 World Population Percentage by Religion
- 17. Emerging Alignments ofCivilizations
- 18. Trends by ConflictType, 1946-2016 Source: Center for Systemic Peace
- 19. The West versusthe Rest • Three responses of non-Western civilizations to Western power and values: 1. Isolation (isolate country from the West). 2. Bandwagoning (attempt to join the West and accept its values and institutions). 3. Balance (to modernize but not to Westernize). • The West should maintain the economic and military power necessary to protect its interests in relation to other civilizations. • The West should develop profound understanding of religious and philosophical assumptions underlying other civilizations. • There will be no universal civilization, but instead a world of many different civilizations, each of which will have to learn to coexist with the others.
- 20. Westernization ≠ Modernization Modernizationof society does not automatically lead to the adoption of Western cultures • Modernization: Developments in science & technology, industrialization, urbanization, literacy, education, wealth, social mobility, differentiation in workforce • Western civilization emerged in 8th & 9th Centuries – modernization emerged in 17th and 18th Century. • “Non-Western societies can modernize and have modernized without abandoning their own cultures and adopting wholesale Western values, institutions and practices.”
- 21. Criticisms of Huntington’sThesis • Has there been a rise in ‘civilizational’ or ‘ethnic’ conflict during the 1990s? What is the systematic evidence? • Is there really a single, distinctive Muslim culture? • If there is a shared Muslim culture, is it truly antithetical to democracy and democratic values? • Deep divisions exist within Muslim societies – the root causes of radical fundamentalism may lie in structural inequalities between rich and poor and in poor governance in autocratic states.
- 22. Worst Atrocities onRecord
- 23. Event Location FromTo Holodomor (Голодомор) (Ukrainian genocide which is part of greater Soviet famine of 1932–33) Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, Soviet Union 1932 1933 Aardakh (Soviet deportation of Chechens and other Vainakh populations) Soviet Union, North Caucasus 1944 1948 Polish Operation of the NKVD(Polish genocide) Soviet Union 1937 1938 Jewish genocide during the Russian White Terror What is now Ukraine and Russia 1918 1923 Latvian Operation of the NKVD (Lativian genocide) Soviet Union 1937 1938 Mao Zedong China 1949 1976 Cambodian genocide Democratic Kampuchea 1975 1979
Editor's Notes
- #1 Framing the question
- #2 American political scientist, policy adviser and academic. He spent more than half a century as a professor at Harvard University. During the presidency of Jimmy Carter, Huntington was the White House Coordinator of Security Planning for the National Security Council.
- #3 He is best known for his 1993 theory, the "Clash of Civilizations", of a post-Cold War new world order. He argued that future wars would be fought not between countries, but between cultures, and that Islamic extremism would become the biggest threat to world peace. Huntington is credited with helping to shape U.S. views on civilian-military relations, political development, and comparative government.
- #4 Civilizational cultures are defined by: common objective elements (language, history, religion, customs, institutions) & by subjective self-identification (‘us’ and ‘them’). Civilizational cultures are based mainly on religion
- #6 Concept of Western Civilization: Classical legacy of philosophy & law, Catholicism & Protestantism, multiple languages, rule of law, social pluralism, representative bodies, individualism. “Individually none of these factors was unique to the West. The combination of them was, however, and this is what gave the West its distinctive character.”
- #7 Global politics is multi-polar and multi-civilizational: NOT a ‘Westernization’ of non-Western states. The balance of population is shifting with a decline in the West, Asia is expanding, and Islam is expanding demographically.
- #9 The most significant dividing line in Europe, as William Wallace has suggested, may well be the eastern boundary of Western Christianity in the year 1500. This line runs along what are now the boundaries between Finland and Russia and between the Baltic states and Russia, cuts through Belarus and Ukraine separating the more Catholic western Ukraine from Orthodox eastern Ukraine, swings westward separating Transylvania from the rest of Romania, and then goes through Yugoslavia almost exactly along the line now separating Croatia and Slovenia from the rest of Yugoslavia. In the Balkans this line, of course, coincides with the historic boundary between the Hapsburg and Ottoman empires. The peoples to the north and west of this line are Protestant or Catholic; they shared the common experiences of European history - feudalism, the Renaissance, the Reformation, the Enlightenment, the French Revolution, the Industrial Revolution; they are generally economically better off than the peoples to the east; and they may now look forward to increasing involvement in a common European economy and to the consolidation of democratic political systems. The peoples to the east and south of this line are Orthodox or Muslim; they historically belonged to the Ottoman or Tsarist empires and were only lightly touched by the shaping events in the rest of Europe; they are generally less advanced economically; they seem much less likely to develop stable democratic political systems.
- #10 The most significant dividing line in Europe, as William Wallace has suggested, may well be the eastern boundary of Western Christianity in the year 1500. This line runs along what are now the boundaries between Finland and Russia and between the Baltic states and Russia, cuts through Belarus and Ukraine separating the more Catholic western Ukraine from Orthodox eastern Ukraine, swings westward separating Transylvania from the rest of Romania, and then goes through Yugoslavia almost exactly along the line now separating Croatia and Slovenia from the rest of Yugoslavia. In the Balkans this line, of course, coincides with the historic boundary between the Hapsburg and Ottoman empires. The peoples to the north and west of this line are Protestant or Catholic; they shared the common experiences of European history - feudalism, the Renaissance, the Reformation, the Enlightenment, the French Revolution, the Industrial Revolution; they are generally economically better off than the peoples to the east; and they may now look forward to increasing involvement in a common European economy and to the consolidation of democratic political systems. The peoples to the east and south of this line are Orthodox or Muslim; they historically belonged to the Ottoman or Tsarist empires and were only lightly touched by the shaping events in the rest of Europe; they are generally less advanced economically; they seem much less likely to develop stable democratic political systems.
- #11 The most significant dividing line in Europe, as William Wallace has suggested, may well be the eastern boundary of Western Christianity in the year 1500. This line runs along what are now the boundaries between Finland and Russia and between the Baltic states and Russia, cuts through Belarus and Ukraine separating the more Catholic western Ukraine from Orthodox eastern Ukraine, swings westward separating Transylvania from the rest of Romania, and then goes through Yugoslavia almost exactly along the line now separating Croatia and Slovenia from the rest of Yugoslavia. In the Balkans this line, of course, coincides with the historic boundary between the Hapsburg and Ottoman empires. The peoples to the north and west of this line are Protestant or Catholic; they shared the common experiences of European history - feudalism, the Renaissance, the Reformation, the Enlightenment, the French Revolution, the Industrial Revolution; they are generally economically better off than the peoples to the east; and they may now look forward to increasing involvement in a common European economy and to the consolidation of democratic political systems. The peoples to the east and south of this line are Orthodox or Muslim; they historically belonged to the Ottoman or Tsarist empires and were only lightly touched by the shaping events in the rest of Europe; they are generally less advanced economically; they seem much less likely to develop stable democratic political systems.
- #12 Global politics is multi-polar and multi-civilizational: NOT a ‘Westernization’ of non-Western states. The balance of population is shifting with a decline in the West, Asia is expanding, and Islam is expanding demographically.
- #16 It is a problem that can explain part of why despite the fact that Russia is so immense and so powerful, the average Annual Household Income per Capita: is only $6,476.36 US. The average Russian, living at the same latitude as Finland, Sweden, Norway, Iceland, and Canada, makes only $7,500 American dollars per year.
- #18 A problem that can explain at least a portion of almost every political decision the country has ever made is this: Russia’s geography is flawed.