General features of the Eurostat populaiton projections (EUROPOP)

Eurostat
General features
of the Eurostat
population projections
(EUROPOP)
Giampaolo LANZIERI
Senior Expert
Eurostat Unit F2 'Population'

Eurostat
Is population 'forecasting' peculiar?
"Demographers can no more be held responsible for
inaccuracy in forecasting population 20 years ahead
than geologists, meteorologists, or economists
when they fail to announce earthquakes, cold
winters, or depressions 20 years ahead."
N. Keyfitz, 1981,
"The Limits of Population Forecasting"
G. Lanzieri: EU regional
DG REGIO Info Session on Population
Projections, Brussels, 19 February 2016
2

Eurostat
Projections, not forecasts!
• 'Forecasts' should include future policies and non-demographic factors
(e.g., economic development, technology, geo-political issues, welfare policies, education
profiles, wage differentials, delocalisation of production, environmental problems, etc.)
• "It is to be emphasized that they are not predictions of future
population size, nor are they to be assumed to indicate the probable
sex and age structure. They are, strictly speaking, merely statements
of what the size and the sex, age (,…) composition of the population
would be at specified future times if birth rates, death rates, and
immigration were to follow certain specified trends."
Thompson and Whelpton, 1943,
"Estimation of future population of the United States, 1940-2000"
3

Eurostat
Looking far ahead with today eyes
• Long-term assumptions are particularly
challenging
• think at getting correct outcomes for the current
time while being in the 1950s or even before WW2
• Usually assessed looking at macro assumptions
on fertility/mortality/migration, but several other
elements may actually influence the results
• Predictors/drivers difficult to use: in turn, need of
long-term assumptions for them!
4G. Lanzieri: EU regional

Eurostat
General features of EUROPOP
• Acronym: EUROPOPyear = EUROstat POpulation
Projections year-based
• Outsourced during 1980-2002. Full internal
production from 2003
• Focus on EU and EFTA countries
• Carried out about every 3 years
• Data by sex, single age and single year
• Common methodology
• Use of official data:
• differing data availability and quality
• data revisions
5

Eurostat
EUROPOP exercises
• EUROPOP2004: Trends Scenario
• Baseline + 6 variants: high population, low
population, younger age profile population, older age
profile population, high fertility and zero migration
• EUROPOP2007-8: Convergence Scenario
• Baseline and “no migration” variant
• Regional level NUTS2
• EUROPOP2010: Convergence Scenario
• Baseline and “no migration” variant
• EUROPOP2013: Convergent Trends Scenario
• Insertion of short- (nowcasting) and medium-term
(trends) components in the convergence model
• No migration variant + 3 sensitivity variants
• Regional level NUTS2 and NUTS3
6

Eurostat
Main assumption of EUROPOP
The socio-economic differences across European
countries (belonging to the EU or EFTA) will fade
out in the very long run
demographic convergence
but:
no full convergence reached within
the time horizon of the projections!
7

Eurostat
Simplified schema for assumptions
Projections horizon
Min 2100 Max 2100 Min 2150 Max 2150 Min 2200 Max 2200
2100 2150 2200
Hypothetical
convergence years
Target year
for projections
Startingvalues(baseyear)
Range of
projected values
Target values
8
Source: Lanzieri (2008): "EUROPOP2008: a set of population projections for the European Union".

Eurostat
Convergence values
• Fertility: derived from theoretical considerations
• Mortality: based on improvements at decreasing
pace in 'forerunner' countries
• (Net) Migration: tendency to equilibrium
between in- and out-flows in consideration of the
competition with other poles of attraction and the
changing composition of population, but including
mechanism of adjustment in case of shrinking
working-age populations
9

Eurostat
Model components of EUROPOP2013
10

Eurostat
The regional dimension
• Top-down approach => 'regionalization' of the
projections at national level
• Challenges:
• (very) large number of geographic entities
• (additional) issues of data availability/quality
• small number of events – irregular patterns
• additional component: internal migration
• constraint of (exact) consistency with results at
national level for each age and sex
11

Eurostat
Regional methodological framework
• Coherence with the overall scenario=>
long-run convergence among regions of a country
• Assumptions driven by projected values at
national level
• Advances from previous exercise (EUROPOP2008):
• Age distribution extended from 80+ to 100+
• Time horizon extended from 2030 to 2050/2080
• Extension to NUTS3
• Simplified methodology but ensured consistency of
internal migration with the demographic balance
12

Eurostat
Example fertility regional trends
13
NUTS 2

Eurostat
Example mortality regional trends
14
NUTS 2

Eurostat
Example correction for consistency
15

Eurostat
Example total net migration
16
NUTS 2

Eurostat
What is next?
• Possible improvements in case of a next round of
EUROPOP regional projections:
• Timeliness
• NUTS3-specific fertility and mortality patterns
• Additional variants (e.g., zero migration)
• Link between (net) internal migration and non-
demographic factors
• Transition from EUROPOP to 'ESSPOP' (European
Statistical System Population Projections)
• Release currently scheduled for February 2017
17

Would you like to know more about?
You are welcome to contact me: giampaolo.lanzieri@ec.europa.eu
or visit our website/database: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database
18

General features of the Eurostat populaiton projections (EUROPOP)

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