- The protests in Turkey began as a peaceful demonstration against plans to develop Gezi Park in Istanbul but escalated after a heavy-handed police response using tear gas and riot gear. - While some see parallels to the Arab Spring uprisings, the author argues Turkey has already undergone democratic reforms and economic growth in past decades and this is not a Turkish Spring. - The long-serving Prime Minister Erdogan is seen as increasingly authoritarian and out of touch, fueling discontent among former supporters, though the government remains secular rather than Islamist. - The author believes Turkey will withstand this political crisis due to its history of overcoming challenges, and the more conciliatory President Gul can help reduce

1. 5/06/13 11:52 PMTurkey has the strength to survive this crisis | Herald Sun
Page 1 of 3http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/turkey-has-the-strength-to-survive-this-crisis/story-fni0ffsx-1226658077106
news
Herald Sun
News
Turkey has the strength to survive this crisis
by: Greg Barton
From: Herald Sun
June 05, 2013 9:00PM
Be The First To Respond
Protesters gather in Taksim Square in Istanbul, Turkey. Picture: Uriel Sinai/Getty Images
Source: Getty Images
LATELY the Arab spring hasn't been going so well. The excitement of seeing previously
unassailable authoritarian regimes crumbling in the face of youthful people power was
intoxicating.
The revolution in Egypt was fast and dangerous, as revolutions are, but at least it was quick. Now
Egyptians are living through the worst depression since the 1930s but at least they are not living in the
civil war that has engulfed Syria.
With 70,000 dead, the toll rising daily and no clear or good end in sight, the promise of an Arab spring
has entirely disappeared in Syria.
Tunisia is doing much better but Libya and Yemen continue to struggle. All through this, Turkey has been
held out as a model of what the Middle East can become. But since the unrest that began last weekend,
the promise of the Turkish model has come under a cloud.

2. 5/06/13 11:52 PMTurkey has the strength to survive this crisis | Herald Sun
Page 2 of 3http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/turkey-has-the-strength-to-survive-this-crisis/story-fni0ffsx-1226658077106
Is Turkey experiencing its revolutionary spring? Is Taksim Square feeling the same groundswell of people
power that was seen in Egypt's Tahrir Square? Many of the elements are familiar. A paternalistic leader
who refuses to say sorry and presents himself as the victim of conniving opponents and ungrateful
children. An educated youth, connected via social media, globalised and aware of their rights. A police
force too quick to use tear gas and force against a largely passive and peaceful mass. Disaffection with a
moneyed elite that justifies privilege on the grounds of development and economic growth.
There are many parallels between Taksim Square and Tahrir Square but this is no Turkish spring. Since
its formation in 1923, in the face of opposition from a Europe determined to reduce the Ottoman Empire
to an impoverished rump on the shores of the Black Sea, Turkey has endured decades of struggle and
confrontation. Things only really began to settle down in the 1980s in the wake of three military coups,
each a decade apart. A fourth, "soft coup", in 1997, toppled an Islamist government and ushered in a
period of change resulting in the rise of the AKP government in 2002.
Turkey has already had its spring. The military has been pushed back, authoritarianism replaced with
democracy and the economy has grown for the past decade. So what's the problem? The short answer is
an excessively heavy-handed police response and "the grumpy uncle", the term that many Turks use to
describe the acid-tongued Prime Minister, Tayep Erdogan.
While in Taksim Square last month, I was surprised to walk past armoured vehicles in police colours and
officers in riot gear assembled in side streets facing the square.
"They are ready," I thought. If trouble begins in Istanbul, a sprawling conurbation home to fully a third of
Turkey's 75 million people, it will likely begin in Taksim Square.
Sadly, that's what happened.
Bounding the northern edge of Taksim Square, Gezi Park is a much loved spot of greenery in a city that
has precious few public parks. News that "the grumpy uncle" had decided to bulldoze the trees and
transform the square into a combination of historic theme park and shopping mall and apartment complex
drew out Istanbulites in protest.
Without the heavy-handed police response it would have stopped there. But police brutality itself does
not explain the depth of feeling behind these protests that have now spread to Ankara and beyond. The
Erdogan Government has been showing all the hallmarks of a government so long in power it is hard of
hearing and loud of voice.
If the Prime Minister had a different personality or a greater desire to build consensus, the inevitable
hubris of long-term incumbency might have been worn more gracefully. But Erdogan, an impressive
visionary leader, is not one for grace, listening or consensus-building. Disaffection has been building
against his Government for 18 months, climbing sharply after his third electoral victory in mid-2011.
Basking in AKP's best-ever results he spoke of "governing for all" and "being humble". Instead, he's
taken his electoral victory as an excuse for surrounding himself with yes men and walling himself off from
any form of dissent, even within his own party.
HE HAS always been the subject of bitter criticism and suspicion from the secular Right and the
cosmopolitan Left. But increasingly it is his erstwhile supporters, the socially conservative, religious, small
businessmen and recent immigrants to the city have begun to openly question his leadership style.
Erdogan's critics have always argued that his religiously inspired Government is intent on the stealthy
Islamisation of Turkish society. Erdogan has played into their hands in the way in which he has loudly

3. 5/06/13 11:52 PMTurkey has the strength to survive this crisis | Herald Sun
Page 3 of 3http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/turkey-has-the-strength-to-survive-this-crisis/story-fni0ffsx-1226658077106
pushed through minor reforms such as a ban on late-night alcohol sales. But this is no Islamist
Government. It is a post-Islamist Government that continues to show the way for the rest of the Middle
East. The AKP has moved beyond top-down legislative reform and enforcement of morality and has
become a progressive Government, albeit with a strong socially conservative character.
Fortunately the altogether more likable President Abdullah Gul, Erdogan's planned successor as prime
minister, has been quick to take a much more conciliatory line, as has the Deputy Prime Minister.
Why does this matter? Turkey, on the edge of Europe, and Indonesia, on the edge of Asia, bookend the
Muslim majority countries of the world. The nations of 1.6 billion people look to these two countries to
show that Islam and secular democracy are indeed compatible and that stability and economic growth
can flourish in this long troubled quarter of humankind. If Turkey should stumble and fall now, much of
the optimism for change across the Muslim world will evaporate. But Turkey is better than that. It has
come through too much to fail now.
Greg Barton is Herb Feith Research Professor for the Study of Indonesia at Monash University