The document summarizes residential building statistics from StatsSA for the second quarter of 2019. It finds that while residential building completions grew strongly in the second quarter, up 47.9% year-over-year, plans passed declined sharply by 24.8% year-over-year. This suggests residential building activity will likely slow in the near future. It also discusses how new residential developments have struggled with affordability as costs have grown faster than existing home prices and incomes. Developers have responded by focusing more on flats and townhouses rather than free-standing homes to use land more efficiently.
Despite rising multifamily construction starts, the current stock of rental units is struggling to meet demand in some areas. This problem is particularly acute for affordable and workforce housing. High construction costs driven by rising land and material prices are inhibiting new supply, especially of more affordable units. Most new multifamily projects consist of high-end apartments, exacerbating the shortage of affordable rentals. To make projects profitable given high costs, developers have focused on acquiring premium sites and pricing new units at the higher end of the market. This concentration of high-cost units in large cities further squeezes the supply of affordable housing.
The document summarizes economic indicators for the Denver metro area in September 2009. It finds that while consumer confidence was rising, spending remained weak, which would slow the economic recovery. Unemployment had declined slightly but remained higher than the national rate. The housing market showed signs of stabilizing with smaller declines in home sales and prices. Various real estate sectors like office and retail saw flat or higher vacancy rates with declining lease prices. Overall, the recovery was expected to be slow and uneven as consumers and businesses rebuilt their financial positions.
Mid-Year 2009 Highlights
The Washington area housing market has moved into the correction phase - the first step in recovery:
• Prices are showing renewed signs of strength: 2nd quarter prices in most jurisdictions were up from the 1st quarter, though still lower than one year ago. Prices may experience slight declines through the end of the year, but increased demand and a lower supply of listings are helping facilitate price traction.
• Days on market are down sharply compared to both last quarter and a year ago. Properties continue to sell quickest in the Core jurisdictions, but across the region, time on market is moving toward the region's long term average.
• The ratio of inventory to sales (months of sales) continues to decline in all jurisdictions from one year ago. The metro-wide ratio of 5.1 months' worth of listings is below the normal, healthy standard of 6 months, signaling that demand is beginning to outpace supply.
What is being done to help homeowners refinance into more affordable loans? - ‘Policy Spotlight' Page 10
The new Federal Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan (HARP) allows borrowers to take out a mortgage of up to 125% of the home's value. Learn about the program in the ‘Policy Spotlight' on page 10.
How have properties in Exurban Virginia been shielded from steep declines? - ‘Regional Spotlight' Page 17
The counties of Culpeper, Stafford and Spotsylvania as well as Fredericksburg are seeing strong interest in the lower price ranges, where unit volume is up sharply from one year ago. Find out how properties in this area are performing in the ‘Regional Spotlight' on page 17.
This document provides an overview of commercial real estate market conditions in the Greater Boston, MA and Southern New Hampshire area in 2001. It summarizes that the local economy entered a recession in the second half of the year as the high tech, manufacturing and tourism industries contracted. Vacancy rates increased significantly in the Boston Central Business District, though rents only fell slightly. Non-CBD markets saw vacancy rates rise sharply to over 20% as well. Defense and biotech sectors provided some bright spots and continued expansion. Overall, 2001 was a challenging year for the local commercial real estate market as the economic downturn took hold.
Lazard Investment Research: Update on the Improving Foundations of US House P...LazardLazard
Home prices have continued their upward climb, as evidenced by the latest report from S&P/Case-Shiller. However, the most recent data show a sequential deceleration in aggregate price increases. While there are several variables that influence the price trajectory of housing, the recent spike in borrowing rates—in anticipation of tapering by the US Federal Reserve—appears to be a primary driver. In this paper, we discuss the key variables, in addition to housing price indices, that contribute to create a more complete assessment of the fundamentals for a further price recovery.
The document summarizes commercial real estate market conditions in Greater Boston during the third quarter of 2010. Key points include:
- The economy officially ended its recession in mid-2009 but employment levels did not bottom out until late 2009, leading to a sluggish recovery. Unemployment rates remained high across the US and in Massachusetts.
- In Greater Boston, net absorption improved from negative levels a year ago but availability rates remained elevated, suggesting the market is still recovering. Rents declined from a year ago but appeared stable in recent quarters.
- The Boston, Cambridge, and suburban office markets all showed signs of stabilization compared to a year ago, with declining availability and positive but modest absorption. Rents declined
U.S. House Prices Rose 1.9 Percent in First Quarter 2013Wealth Partners
U.S. house prices rose 1.9% in the first quarter of 2013 according to the FHFA House Price Index. This marks the seventh consecutive quarter of house price increases. While the housing market has stabilized in many areas, foreclosures and labor market weakness are still hindering stronger recovery. House prices were up 6.7% from the first quarter of 2012. The Pacific region saw the strongest price increase this quarter at 4.4%, while the Middle Atlantic region saw the smallest rise of 0.3%.
Does High Public Debt Consistently Stifle Economic Growth? A Critique a Reinh...Marco Garoffolo
Proprio in questi giorni abbiamo avuto una prova, decisiva, dell'utilità della non-cooperazione con la ragion di Stato. Ne ha riferito Paul Krugman, in un articolo che dichiara defunta, almeno nelle accademie, l'Austerità (Repubblica, 27 aprile). È un dogma cui l'Europa è appesa da anni: se non cresciamo economicamente, è solo perché gli Stati sono troppo indebitati. A sfatare l'assioma: tre economisti non ortodossi dell'università di Massachusetts-Amherst (i professori Michael Ash e Robert Pollin, lo studente di dottorato Thomas Herndon) che hanno scoperto errori di computer (l'errore Excel) commessi nel 2010 dai due economisti di Harvard, Kenneth Rogoff e Carmen Reinhart. Il dogma ("i Paesi che si indebitano oltre il 90 per cento del Pil non possono crescere") è in pezzi. http://www.peri.umass.edu/fileadmin/pdf/working_papers/working_papers_301-350/WP322.pdf
Despite rising multifamily construction starts, the current stock of rental units is struggling to meet demand in some areas. This problem is particularly acute for affordable and workforce housing. High construction costs driven by rising land and material prices are inhibiting new supply, especially of more affordable units. Most new multifamily projects consist of high-end apartments, exacerbating the shortage of affordable rentals. To make projects profitable given high costs, developers have focused on acquiring premium sites and pricing new units at the higher end of the market. This concentration of high-cost units in large cities further squeezes the supply of affordable housing.
The document summarizes economic indicators for the Denver metro area in September 2009. It finds that while consumer confidence was rising, spending remained weak, which would slow the economic recovery. Unemployment had declined slightly but remained higher than the national rate. The housing market showed signs of stabilizing with smaller declines in home sales and prices. Various real estate sectors like office and retail saw flat or higher vacancy rates with declining lease prices. Overall, the recovery was expected to be slow and uneven as consumers and businesses rebuilt their financial positions.
Mid-Year 2009 Highlights
The Washington area housing market has moved into the correction phase - the first step in recovery:
• Prices are showing renewed signs of strength: 2nd quarter prices in most jurisdictions were up from the 1st quarter, though still lower than one year ago. Prices may experience slight declines through the end of the year, but increased demand and a lower supply of listings are helping facilitate price traction.
• Days on market are down sharply compared to both last quarter and a year ago. Properties continue to sell quickest in the Core jurisdictions, but across the region, time on market is moving toward the region's long term average.
• The ratio of inventory to sales (months of sales) continues to decline in all jurisdictions from one year ago. The metro-wide ratio of 5.1 months' worth of listings is below the normal, healthy standard of 6 months, signaling that demand is beginning to outpace supply.
What is being done to help homeowners refinance into more affordable loans? - ‘Policy Spotlight' Page 10
The new Federal Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan (HARP) allows borrowers to take out a mortgage of up to 125% of the home's value. Learn about the program in the ‘Policy Spotlight' on page 10.
How have properties in Exurban Virginia been shielded from steep declines? - ‘Regional Spotlight' Page 17
The counties of Culpeper, Stafford and Spotsylvania as well as Fredericksburg are seeing strong interest in the lower price ranges, where unit volume is up sharply from one year ago. Find out how properties in this area are performing in the ‘Regional Spotlight' on page 17.
This document provides an overview of commercial real estate market conditions in the Greater Boston, MA and Southern New Hampshire area in 2001. It summarizes that the local economy entered a recession in the second half of the year as the high tech, manufacturing and tourism industries contracted. Vacancy rates increased significantly in the Boston Central Business District, though rents only fell slightly. Non-CBD markets saw vacancy rates rise sharply to over 20% as well. Defense and biotech sectors provided some bright spots and continued expansion. Overall, 2001 was a challenging year for the local commercial real estate market as the economic downturn took hold.
Lazard Investment Research: Update on the Improving Foundations of US House P...LazardLazard
Home prices have continued their upward climb, as evidenced by the latest report from S&P/Case-Shiller. However, the most recent data show a sequential deceleration in aggregate price increases. While there are several variables that influence the price trajectory of housing, the recent spike in borrowing rates—in anticipation of tapering by the US Federal Reserve—appears to be a primary driver. In this paper, we discuss the key variables, in addition to housing price indices, that contribute to create a more complete assessment of the fundamentals for a further price recovery.
The document summarizes commercial real estate market conditions in Greater Boston during the third quarter of 2010. Key points include:
- The economy officially ended its recession in mid-2009 but employment levels did not bottom out until late 2009, leading to a sluggish recovery. Unemployment rates remained high across the US and in Massachusetts.
- In Greater Boston, net absorption improved from negative levels a year ago but availability rates remained elevated, suggesting the market is still recovering. Rents declined from a year ago but appeared stable in recent quarters.
- The Boston, Cambridge, and suburban office markets all showed signs of stabilization compared to a year ago, with declining availability and positive but modest absorption. Rents declined
U.S. House Prices Rose 1.9 Percent in First Quarter 2013Wealth Partners
U.S. house prices rose 1.9% in the first quarter of 2013 according to the FHFA House Price Index. This marks the seventh consecutive quarter of house price increases. While the housing market has stabilized in many areas, foreclosures and labor market weakness are still hindering stronger recovery. House prices were up 6.7% from the first quarter of 2012. The Pacific region saw the strongest price increase this quarter at 4.4%, while the Middle Atlantic region saw the smallest rise of 0.3%.
Does High Public Debt Consistently Stifle Economic Growth? A Critique a Reinh...Marco Garoffolo
Proprio in questi giorni abbiamo avuto una prova, decisiva, dell'utilità della non-cooperazione con la ragion di Stato. Ne ha riferito Paul Krugman, in un articolo che dichiara defunta, almeno nelle accademie, l'Austerità (Repubblica, 27 aprile). È un dogma cui l'Europa è appesa da anni: se non cresciamo economicamente, è solo perché gli Stati sono troppo indebitati. A sfatare l'assioma: tre economisti non ortodossi dell'università di Massachusetts-Amherst (i professori Michael Ash e Robert Pollin, lo studente di dottorato Thomas Herndon) che hanno scoperto errori di computer (l'errore Excel) commessi nel 2010 dai due economisti di Harvard, Kenneth Rogoff e Carmen Reinhart. Il dogma ("i Paesi che si indebitano oltre il 90 per cento del Pil non possono crescere") è in pezzi. http://www.peri.umass.edu/fileadmin/pdf/working_papers/working_papers_301-350/WP322.pdf
The purpose of this video is to provide an overview of the recent events and trends that have transpired in the residential housing environment, and to provide an overview of the home-price level for a select group of cities that make up the Adkins 60-City Home Price Index. This analysis is for the second quarter of 2015.
- Weak new home sales figures in December lowered expectations for housing in 2014. However, the fundamentals of the housing recovery have not suddenly taken a turn for the worse, and the recovery will continue to be a long, difficult process.
- Sluggish job and income growth have weighed on household formation and encouraged more renting over buying. This trend is expected to gradually shift as the economy strengthens.
- Homebuilder confidence has been gradually improving, though new home sales and pending home sales recently declined more than expected given positive anecdotal reports from builders.
- The pace of the housing recovery is expected to pick up gradually in 2014-2015 as job growth and the economy improve, but doubts will periodically
The document provides an overview of the December 2020 Arizona housing market. It includes various data points and metrics on housing demand, prices, inventory, mortgage rates, and forecasts for 2021. Experts are quoted discussing topics like the strong price growth, low inventory levels, and factors that suggest the current market conditions differ from the 2006 housing bubble. The resources section lists sources for further details on the data discussed.
C.A.R’s 2014 Housing Forecast - The Real Estate Report December/JanuaryAMSI, San Francisco
The Real Estate Report December/January, local market trends San Francisco: "C.A.R’s 2014 Housing Forecast" by AMSI's Real Estate Broker Robb Fleischer
Estudo do Impacto da Dívida no Crescimento EconómicoJorge Barbosa
The authors replicate the study by Reinhart and Rogoff (2010a and 2010b) which claimed that countries with public debt over 90% of GDP see average GDP growth rates about 1% lower than countries with lower debt levels. Through their replication, the authors find coding errors, selective exclusion of data, and unconventional weighting methods in the RR study that inaccurately represent the relationship between debt and growth. When properly calculated, the authors find that average GDP growth for countries with debt over 90% of GDP is actually 2.2% rather than the -0.1% claimed by RR, contradicting their key finding. The authors refute the evidence put forward by RR for a debt threshold of 90% above which growth is
Housing market assessment greater toronto area - 1 st quarter 2017Shawn Venasse
Recent analysis of the Toronto housing market found:
1) Strong evidence of overvaluation, with home prices growing much faster than incomes and population growth.
2) Moderate evidence of overheating and price acceleration, as sales remained high while new listings only kept pace with demand.
3) Weak evidence of overbuilding, as unsold inventory continued to decline in the third quarter of 2016.
TORONTO REGIONAL REAL ESTATE BOARD'S - MARKET WATCH - FOR AUGUEST 2021Shawn Venasse
This is the monthly stats report on all sales and listings within the MLS system run by the Toronto real estate board. This is the definitive AUGUST 2021 sales guide.
1. The Washington Metro Area For-Sale Housing Market
2. The Baltimore Metro Area For-Sale Housing Market
3. Policy Spotlight: Federal Tax Credit Completion Deadline Extended
4. Ask Delta 1
5. Summary Data on the Mid-Atlantic Housing Market
6. Local Spotlight: City of Baltimore
7. Regional Spotlight: Loudoun County
8. The Washington Regional Economy and Outlook
9. The Baltimore Regional Economy and Outlook
10. The Condominium Market
11. The Apartment Market
12. The Commercial Real Estate Market
The document summarizes house price trends in Cape Town sub-regions from Q2 2019. It finds that:
1) Prices in affluent areas fell deeper into deflation, and this pressure is now spilling over to middle-priced areas, while lower-priced areas remain resilient with double-digit growth.
2) The overall city growth slowed to 0.5% year-over-year, the slowest since 2009, due to intensifying pressure in affluent areas now impacting middle areas.
3) While the market remains lackluster, some indicators show signs of resilience as buyers take advantage of better prices, with first-time buyer activity rebounding.
The document provides an overview and outlook of global real estate markets in 2009. It discusses how the global economic slowdown has negatively impacted commercial property markets worldwide, with rising vacancy rates and falling rents. It then summarizes real estate market conditions and outlooks for various regions including:
- The US, where vacancy rates are expected to rise and rents fall across major markets like New York City and Boston in 2009. The Washington DC retail sector is expected to perform well due to government spending.
- Europe, where prime property markets like London face declining demand and rents.
- Asia-Pacific, where the outlook is mixed with stronger performance in some Chinese cities compared to other markets like Japan.
- Middle East
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Real Estate Industry | Q3 2017 | Segment Focus:...Mercer Capital
The document summarizes residential real estate market trends in the third quarter of 2017. Key points include:
- Housing inventory remains low, constraining the market and putting upward pressure on home prices. New and existing home sales saw growth in the third quarter.
- Homeownership rates increased slightly in the third quarter from the prior year. New home construction rose significantly in September.
- Mortgage rates remain low by historical standards but increased in 2017 following Fed rate hikes.
- Commercial real estate prices and REIT returns showed modest growth in the third quarter, with industrial REITs performing strongest. M&A activity in real estate was flat compared to prior quarters.
The Robb Fleischer’s Real Estate Report – Local Market Trends San Francisco includes monthly updates regarding mortgage rates, market statistics, sales momentum, pricing momentum, trends at a glance, foreclosure statistics and more.
- The San Francisco housing market remains very competitive, with sale prices continuing to exceed listing prices. The median home price was over $1,000,000 for the second month in a row.
- The real estate market is still in the recovery stage of the cycle, as seen by declining foreclosures, low inventory, and low mortgage rates. The recovery is expected to continue for the next few years.
- Both home and condo sale prices rose year-over-year in March. The median home price was up 5.3% while the median condo price set a new record at $970,000, up 17% from the previous year.
The following presentation provides an overview of the events and trends that took place in the residential housing environment for the first quarter of 2015 and provides an overview of the home price level for a select group of cities throughout the United States.
The document summarizes the performance of South Africa's housing market in 2017 based on the FNB House Price Index. It finds that:
1) House prices rose 3.7% in 2017, the third consecutive year of slowing growth following peaks of 7% in 2014 and 4.8% in 2016.
2) However, monthly house price growth accelerated in the second half of 2017, reaching 6.1% in December, signaling stronger momentum heading into 2018.
3) The analyst predicts slightly stronger annual house price growth of around 5% for 2018, supported by expected improved economic growth, but risks remain from policy uncertainty and weather conditions.
Annie Williams Market Trends Jan-Feb 2014Jon Weaver
The document is a real estate market report from Annie Williams, a real estate agent, covering trends in the San Francisco housing market. It provides statistics on home and condo sales prices, sales, inventory, and foreclosure activity. In December, the median home price rose 12.3% year-over-year to $954,500, while home sales increased 2.5% year-over-year. The median condo price rose 4.2% to $750,000, but condo sales fell 20.3% year-over-year. Foreclosure activity continued declining from the previous year.
RealtyTrac's January 2015 Housing News Report has some great information to kick off the new year.
Highlights Include:
“Five Economists Forecast the 2015 Housing Market,” by Housing News Report Staff
“A Slightly More Optimistic Outlook for Homebuilding,” by Mark Vitner, Wells Fargo
“Chicago: A Tale of Two Cities,” by Octavio Nuiry, Managing Editor
“House of Outrageous Fortune,” by Michael Gross, reviewed By Octavio Nuiry, Managing Editor
Top 20: Foreclosure Rates in the Nation's 20 Largest Metros in December 2014
Median Home Price Stays Over $1MM - July/August Real Estate ReportAMSI, San Francisco
The San Francisco real estate market remains extremely strong. The median home price has stayed over $1 million for 15 of the past 17 months and homes are selling quickly within 26 days on average. In June, the median home price increased 8.5% year-over-year while home sales were up 11.6% from the previous June. The condo market also saw year-over-year growth, with the median price up 12.8% and sales gaining 1.9% from May. Inventory remains low contributing to high prices and competitive bidding situations.
The FNB House Price Index showed an acceleration in year-on-year growth in March 2017 to 4.1% compared to 2.7% in February. In real terms, adjusting for inflation, house prices declined 3.4% year-on-year in February. Month-on-month house price inflation was positive at 1.7% in March after deflation in late 2016. While signs point to a moderate economic recovery in South Africa strengthening house prices, political risks remain from developments that could negatively impact the economy and housing market.
The housing market across the MLSListings region slowed significantly in 2022 due to high prices, rising interest rates, and economic uncertainty. Home prices declined in most areas compared to last year, with the largest drops in San Mateo County. Housing sales and new listings also fell substantially, causing inventory levels and months of supply to rise slightly. However, the market remains relatively tight. Prices are expected to decline modestly further before stabilizing in late 2023 as interest rates potentially decrease.
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Construction and Building Materials | Q2 2019 |...Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Construction Industry newsletter provides a broad range of specialized valuation and transaction advisory services to the construction industry, including residential, commercial, civil, paving, concrete, and more. Each issue includes a segment focus, market overview, mergers and acquisitions review, and more.
The purpose of this video is to provide an overview of the recent events and trends that have transpired in the residential housing environment, and to provide an overview of the home-price level for a select group of cities that make up the Adkins 60-City Home Price Index. This analysis is for the second quarter of 2015.
- Weak new home sales figures in December lowered expectations for housing in 2014. However, the fundamentals of the housing recovery have not suddenly taken a turn for the worse, and the recovery will continue to be a long, difficult process.
- Sluggish job and income growth have weighed on household formation and encouraged more renting over buying. This trend is expected to gradually shift as the economy strengthens.
- Homebuilder confidence has been gradually improving, though new home sales and pending home sales recently declined more than expected given positive anecdotal reports from builders.
- The pace of the housing recovery is expected to pick up gradually in 2014-2015 as job growth and the economy improve, but doubts will periodically
The document provides an overview of the December 2020 Arizona housing market. It includes various data points and metrics on housing demand, prices, inventory, mortgage rates, and forecasts for 2021. Experts are quoted discussing topics like the strong price growth, low inventory levels, and factors that suggest the current market conditions differ from the 2006 housing bubble. The resources section lists sources for further details on the data discussed.
C.A.R’s 2014 Housing Forecast - The Real Estate Report December/JanuaryAMSI, San Francisco
The Real Estate Report December/January, local market trends San Francisco: "C.A.R’s 2014 Housing Forecast" by AMSI's Real Estate Broker Robb Fleischer
Estudo do Impacto da Dívida no Crescimento EconómicoJorge Barbosa
The authors replicate the study by Reinhart and Rogoff (2010a and 2010b) which claimed that countries with public debt over 90% of GDP see average GDP growth rates about 1% lower than countries with lower debt levels. Through their replication, the authors find coding errors, selective exclusion of data, and unconventional weighting methods in the RR study that inaccurately represent the relationship between debt and growth. When properly calculated, the authors find that average GDP growth for countries with debt over 90% of GDP is actually 2.2% rather than the -0.1% claimed by RR, contradicting their key finding. The authors refute the evidence put forward by RR for a debt threshold of 90% above which growth is
Housing market assessment greater toronto area - 1 st quarter 2017Shawn Venasse
Recent analysis of the Toronto housing market found:
1) Strong evidence of overvaluation, with home prices growing much faster than incomes and population growth.
2) Moderate evidence of overheating and price acceleration, as sales remained high while new listings only kept pace with demand.
3) Weak evidence of overbuilding, as unsold inventory continued to decline in the third quarter of 2016.
TORONTO REGIONAL REAL ESTATE BOARD'S - MARKET WATCH - FOR AUGUEST 2021Shawn Venasse
This is the monthly stats report on all sales and listings within the MLS system run by the Toronto real estate board. This is the definitive AUGUST 2021 sales guide.
1. The Washington Metro Area For-Sale Housing Market
2. The Baltimore Metro Area For-Sale Housing Market
3. Policy Spotlight: Federal Tax Credit Completion Deadline Extended
4. Ask Delta 1
5. Summary Data on the Mid-Atlantic Housing Market
6. Local Spotlight: City of Baltimore
7. Regional Spotlight: Loudoun County
8. The Washington Regional Economy and Outlook
9. The Baltimore Regional Economy and Outlook
10. The Condominium Market
11. The Apartment Market
12. The Commercial Real Estate Market
The document summarizes house price trends in Cape Town sub-regions from Q2 2019. It finds that:
1) Prices in affluent areas fell deeper into deflation, and this pressure is now spilling over to middle-priced areas, while lower-priced areas remain resilient with double-digit growth.
2) The overall city growth slowed to 0.5% year-over-year, the slowest since 2009, due to intensifying pressure in affluent areas now impacting middle areas.
3) While the market remains lackluster, some indicators show signs of resilience as buyers take advantage of better prices, with first-time buyer activity rebounding.
The document provides an overview and outlook of global real estate markets in 2009. It discusses how the global economic slowdown has negatively impacted commercial property markets worldwide, with rising vacancy rates and falling rents. It then summarizes real estate market conditions and outlooks for various regions including:
- The US, where vacancy rates are expected to rise and rents fall across major markets like New York City and Boston in 2009. The Washington DC retail sector is expected to perform well due to government spending.
- Europe, where prime property markets like London face declining demand and rents.
- Asia-Pacific, where the outlook is mixed with stronger performance in some Chinese cities compared to other markets like Japan.
- Middle East
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Real Estate Industry | Q3 2017 | Segment Focus:...Mercer Capital
The document summarizes residential real estate market trends in the third quarter of 2017. Key points include:
- Housing inventory remains low, constraining the market and putting upward pressure on home prices. New and existing home sales saw growth in the third quarter.
- Homeownership rates increased slightly in the third quarter from the prior year. New home construction rose significantly in September.
- Mortgage rates remain low by historical standards but increased in 2017 following Fed rate hikes.
- Commercial real estate prices and REIT returns showed modest growth in the third quarter, with industrial REITs performing strongest. M&A activity in real estate was flat compared to prior quarters.
The Robb Fleischer’s Real Estate Report – Local Market Trends San Francisco includes monthly updates regarding mortgage rates, market statistics, sales momentum, pricing momentum, trends at a glance, foreclosure statistics and more.
- The San Francisco housing market remains very competitive, with sale prices continuing to exceed listing prices. The median home price was over $1,000,000 for the second month in a row.
- The real estate market is still in the recovery stage of the cycle, as seen by declining foreclosures, low inventory, and low mortgage rates. The recovery is expected to continue for the next few years.
- Both home and condo sale prices rose year-over-year in March. The median home price was up 5.3% while the median condo price set a new record at $970,000, up 17% from the previous year.
The following presentation provides an overview of the events and trends that took place in the residential housing environment for the first quarter of 2015 and provides an overview of the home price level for a select group of cities throughout the United States.
The document summarizes the performance of South Africa's housing market in 2017 based on the FNB House Price Index. It finds that:
1) House prices rose 3.7% in 2017, the third consecutive year of slowing growth following peaks of 7% in 2014 and 4.8% in 2016.
2) However, monthly house price growth accelerated in the second half of 2017, reaching 6.1% in December, signaling stronger momentum heading into 2018.
3) The analyst predicts slightly stronger annual house price growth of around 5% for 2018, supported by expected improved economic growth, but risks remain from policy uncertainty and weather conditions.
Annie Williams Market Trends Jan-Feb 2014Jon Weaver
The document is a real estate market report from Annie Williams, a real estate agent, covering trends in the San Francisco housing market. It provides statistics on home and condo sales prices, sales, inventory, and foreclosure activity. In December, the median home price rose 12.3% year-over-year to $954,500, while home sales increased 2.5% year-over-year. The median condo price rose 4.2% to $750,000, but condo sales fell 20.3% year-over-year. Foreclosure activity continued declining from the previous year.
RealtyTrac's January 2015 Housing News Report has some great information to kick off the new year.
Highlights Include:
“Five Economists Forecast the 2015 Housing Market,” by Housing News Report Staff
“A Slightly More Optimistic Outlook for Homebuilding,” by Mark Vitner, Wells Fargo
“Chicago: A Tale of Two Cities,” by Octavio Nuiry, Managing Editor
“House of Outrageous Fortune,” by Michael Gross, reviewed By Octavio Nuiry, Managing Editor
Top 20: Foreclosure Rates in the Nation's 20 Largest Metros in December 2014
Median Home Price Stays Over $1MM - July/August Real Estate ReportAMSI, San Francisco
The San Francisco real estate market remains extremely strong. The median home price has stayed over $1 million for 15 of the past 17 months and homes are selling quickly within 26 days on average. In June, the median home price increased 8.5% year-over-year while home sales were up 11.6% from the previous June. The condo market also saw year-over-year growth, with the median price up 12.8% and sales gaining 1.9% from May. Inventory remains low contributing to high prices and competitive bidding situations.
The FNB House Price Index showed an acceleration in year-on-year growth in March 2017 to 4.1% compared to 2.7% in February. In real terms, adjusting for inflation, house prices declined 3.4% year-on-year in February. Month-on-month house price inflation was positive at 1.7% in March after deflation in late 2016. While signs point to a moderate economic recovery in South Africa strengthening house prices, political risks remain from developments that could negatively impact the economy and housing market.
The housing market across the MLSListings region slowed significantly in 2022 due to high prices, rising interest rates, and economic uncertainty. Home prices declined in most areas compared to last year, with the largest drops in San Mateo County. Housing sales and new listings also fell substantially, causing inventory levels and months of supply to rise slightly. However, the market remains relatively tight. Prices are expected to decline modestly further before stabilizing in late 2023 as interest rates potentially decrease.
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Construction and Building Materials | Q2 2019 |...Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Construction Industry newsletter provides a broad range of specialized valuation and transaction advisory services to the construction industry, including residential, commercial, civil, paving, concrete, and more. Each issue includes a segment focus, market overview, mergers and acquisitions review, and more.
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Construction and Building Materials | Q1 2018 |...Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Construction Industry newsletter provides a broad range of specialized valuation and transaction advisory services to the construction industry, including residential, commercial, civil, paving, concrete, and more. Each issue includes a segment focus, market overview, mergers and acquisitions review, and more.
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Construction and Building Materials | Q2 2018 |...Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Construction Industry newsletter provides a broad range of specialized valuation and transaction advisory services to the construction industry, including residential, commercial, civil, paving, concrete, and more. Each issue includes a segment focus, market overview, mergers and acquisitions review, and more.
The US housing market is healthier now than during the Great Recession, however COVID-19 is negatively impacting sales. Pending home sales declined 40% YoY in mid-April due to fewer listings and showings. Unemployment could increase mortgage defaults if it remains high. Home prices are at record highs but historically low mortgage rates have improved affordability. Demand from millennial first-time buyers may sustain the market but supply constraints exist in some areas.
CannonDesign’s Cost Estimating team offers clients an in-depth understanding of initial construction cost, life cycle cost, schedule and construction delivery strategies to complement the firm’s design talent.
FNB Property Insights SARB Leading Indicator_August 2019Berty Van Staaden
The June SARB Leading Business Cycle Indicator continued to decline, suggesting ongoing economic weakness and weak new mortgage lending. The year-on-year decline of -2.8% was greater than the previous month's decline and was the 9th consecutive monthly decline. Both new mortgage lending and new property development are expected to remain slow in the near future based on the leading indicator. New building plans data also declined sharply in the 2nd quarter of 2019, as did plans for non-residential buildings, reflecting a response to weaker economic conditions.
The Lightstone Property Forecast for 2019 predicts that the residential property market will have a slow start to the year due to economic uncertainty but may see growth later in the year if the economy strengthens. The forecast models three scenarios: a mid-road scenario similar to 2018 with 4.7% growth, a low road scenario with weaker growth, and a potential high road scenario that could surpass previous forecasts if economic conditions improve significantly. While the luxury market and high-value segments are expected to see limited early growth, the mid-value segment may benefit from upward mobility and downsizing trends. Overall, the forecast expects a robust market recovery in 2019 is possible depending on the national election outcome and economic policy changes.
The document provides a forecast for the construction industry as it recovers from the recession. It predicts that construction spending will begin to rise again within the next year as space and capacity surpluses are absorbed by increasing demand. The economic recovery is assessed to be sustainable, though growth will be slower than past recoveries due to lingering financial issues. Housing, commercial, institutional, and heavy construction are each expected to see spending increases over the course of 2010 and 2011, though the recoveries will vary between sectors. Access to credit remains a hurdle but is expected to gradually improve.
The document summarizes the 2008 outlook for the US real estate market. It predicts that capital flows to real estate will significantly decrease from record levels in 2006-2007 due to tighter lending standards. Pricing for most properties declined 5-10% from mid-2007 to early 2008 and is expected to fall further as capital flows decrease and interest rates rise. Total returns from real estate are forecast to be 6-8% in 2008, down from 14% in 2007, as values adjust downward. However, core real estate purchased in early 2008 is predicted to achieve unleveraged annual returns of 7.5-8%. Overall, the market is undergoing a period of adjustment after several years of outsized gains fueled by abundant capital
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Economic Indicators for week of July 26-30NAR Research
1) The weekly economic forecast from NAR Research showed stable or slightly improved predictions for GDP growth and unemployment through 2010, with the mortgage rate expected to decline slightly.
2) New home sales rebounded in June from May's low, though remained below year-ago levels, as low mortgage rates enticed buyers but high unemployment discouraged many.
3) The first estimate of Q2 GDP growth was 2.4%, an improvement from Q1, driven partly by the homebuyer tax credit boosting residential investment.
This report summarizes the prospects for the UK housing market in winter 2015. It predicts that house prices will rise 4.5% in 2015 and 4.4% in 2016, supported by an improving economy. However, sustained low interest rates could fuel faster growth of nearly 7% in 2016. Regional disparities are growing, with prices weakest in the North East and Scotland. The supply of homes remains constrained, despite strong demand and real earnings growth supporting buyer affordability.
This document provides an overview and outlook of the Australian property market in 2022 and 2023. It summarizes that rising interest rates led to a decline in national home values in 2022, with values falling 3.2% nationally driven by a 5.2% decline in capital cities. Regional home values rose 3.3% over the year. The outlook expects further interest rate rises and home value declines in 2023, with a potential bottoming out once interest rates peak, though serviceability remains a risk. Rental growth was strong in 2022 and migration recovery could boost investor and first home buyer activity as values find a floor.
U.S. Housing Market Overview, September 2021Nima Wedlake
Key economic indicators in America’s residential real estate market, including mortgage origination volume, housing supply, credit availability and real estate pricing trends.
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House prices in South Africa remained steady in August 2019, growing 3.6% year-over-year. While transaction volumes increased slightly, mortgage lending has grown faster than house prices. Demand for housing has shown mild signs of improvement while inventory levels have stabilized. Looking ahead, house price growth is expected to remain around 3.5-4% for 2019 and 2020, supported by lower interest rates but constrained by economic challenges.
The residential property index report provides the following information:
- The current annual inflation rate is 3.61% and monthly rate is 0.31% nationally.
- The Western Cape continues to outperform other provinces with an annual rate of 5%, though it has dropped 3 percentage points in the last year.
- Coastal municipalities are generally performing above 1-4% while inland municipalities like Johannesburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni are between 1-4%.
- Low and mid value property segments are growing over 4% annually compared to below 4% for other segments.
- House prices in South Africa's Gauteng province continued to show low single-digit growth in the second quarter of 2019, with Ekurhuleni outperforming Johannesburg and Tshwane.
- Price growth has softened the most in the affluent northern regions of Johannesburg and Pretoria, while pressure is now also affecting more affordable areas.
- Ekurhuleni has held up better with average price growth of 4.3% due to a higher concentration of middle-priced properties.
Rental growth remained flat nationally in Q2 2019, matching the 3.86% rate from Q1. While lower growth is not ideal for landlords, tenants benefit from slower increases in living costs. Analysis of long-term credit data found that overall financial health of tenants has weakened, with higher debt levels and slower income growth reducing disposable income. At the same time, most provinces saw rental growth remain steady or increase slightly in Q2 compared to Q1.
This document discusses capitalization (cap) rates and property values in South Africa. It notes that cap rates have only risen slightly in recent years, despite deteriorating economic fundamentals. This suggests cap rates and property values may be due for a more significant correction. The document examines factors that led to a major decline in cap rates and increase in property values from 2003-2007 for comparison. These included declining interest rates, an economic upswing, and improving business confidence. The current environment of economic stagnation and rising government debt could lead to higher cap rates and lower property values if sentiment changes among investors.
FNB_Property Insights_Retail Property's Consumer ChallengesBerty Van Staaden
- The key challenge currently facing the retail property sector is the financial condition of the consumer, as economic growth has slowed and put pressure on household income and spending.
- Over the past 20 years, strong consumer spending helped retail property outperform other sectors, but more recently the economic environment has weakened and consumers face higher taxes and financial pressures.
- Three potential sources of pressure on consumers and retail spending are stagnant economic growth reducing income growth, rising effective tax rates increasing costs for households, and consumers potentially increasing savings rates due to weak sentiment and net wealth growth.
The national house price inflation rate in South Africa was 3.5% as of June 2019, with rates varying between provinces and municipalities. The Western Cape continues to outperform other provinces with an annual rate of 5%, while coastal municipalities generally see higher inflation than inland areas. Property value segments are also experiencing different rates, with low and mid-value properties growing over 4% annually compared to below 4% for other segments.
- The survey found that brokers perceive the industrial/warehouse rental market as most active, while the office and retail markets are struggling. Retail brokers cited high rentals and online shopping as particular issues.
- The industrial/warehouse market showed increased activity and declining vacancy rates over the past 6 months, while office and retail saw weaker activity and rising vacancy.
- Near-term expectations improved significantly for the industrial sector after the elections but were more muted for retail, which faces challenges of high rentals and the shift to online shopping.
The document summarizes the results of a survey of commercial property brokers in South Africa regarding their perceptions of market activity levels and confidence following the national election. The survey found that brokers viewed the industrial and warehouse market as having the strongest activity in Q2 2019. While a majority still find conditions satisfactory, average perceived activity was mediocre. Looking ahead, brokers expect increased activity in the office and industrial markets but declined activity in retail, where online shopping is also negatively impacting properties. The election outcome boosted overall sentiment, but concerns remain about the weak economy, particularly impacting the retail sector.
The document summarizes May 2019 building statistics from StatsSA. It finds that residential building completions continued strong growth of 56% year-over-year due to lagged effects of improved sentiment in 2017-2018. However, residential building plans passed have declined since mid-2018, suggesting future completions may slow. Non-residential building was mixed, with industrial/warehouse seeing stability but office and retail facing pressures of high vacancies and weak consumer spending that could lead to declining construction.
The FNB Estate Agents Survey shows that buy-to-let home buying has stabilized at lower levels compared to previous years. While buy-to-let demand makes up a smaller percentage of total home sales nationally, demand has recovered somewhat in coastal regions like Cape Town and Durban. Investment property owners appear to be weathering current market conditions of low rental inflation and slow capital growth by holding onto their properties rather than selling.
- Foreign and expatriate demand for domestic property purchases in South Africa increased slightly in the second quarter of 2019 compared to previous quarters, though it remains below peak levels from 2015-2016.
- The net effect of migration on the domestic property market was estimated to be negative 9% of volumes, representing an excess supply gap that local buyers need to fill to maintain market balance.
- Weak economic growth and policy uncertainty have dampened investor sentiment towards South Africa and contributed to emigration outpacing foreign demand, putting downward pressure on domestic property prices.
The document summarizes residential property indices in South Africa. It reports that the current annual national inflation rate is 3.43% and monthly rate is 0.28%. The Western Cape continues to outperform other provinces with an annual rate of 5.7%, though it has dropped over 3 percentage points in the last 12 months. Coastal municipalities are generally performing above 2-4% range of inland municipalities. Low and mid value property segments are growing more than 4% annually while other segments are below that.
The document summarizes rental market trends in South Africa for the first quarter of 2019. It finds that while rental growth remains subdued, the market appears to be recovering as the quarterly growth rate stabilized after declining for six consecutive quarters. It also notes that uncertainty surrounding the recent general election could dampen property demand in the short term. Additionally, the document provides data on average rents and rental price distributions across South African provinces.
The FNB House Price Index grew 3.7% year-on-year in February 2019, below the 4% growth in January and the 2018 annual average of 3.9%. FNB valuers rate current residential housing demand as weakening and supply strengthening, with the FNB Market Strength Index declining for the ninth consecutive month. Building activity improved in 2018 but building plans approvals point to potential softening ahead. The property market outlook is muted in the near term with house price inflation expected within 3.5-4.5% against a 2019 CPI forecast of 4.7%.
Lightstone_Residential Property Indices_January 2019Berty Van Staaden
The document summarizes residential property indices in South Africa. It reports that the current annual inflation rate is 3.00% and monthly is 0.18%. The Western Cape continues to outperform other provinces with an annual rate of 7.6%, while inland municipalities like Ekurhuleni, City of Tshwane and City of Johannesburg are growing between 2-5% annually. The Low Value and Mid value property segments are growing over 4% annually compared to below 3% for other segments.
The October CPI reading showed a slight acceleration in inflation to 5.1%, remaining within the target range but nearing the upper end. A key contributor was fuel prices. While higher fuel costs may increase demand for homes near jobs in the short run, people's location decisions are longer term. A potential interest rate hike in response to CPI could weaken property demand and cause continued declines in real property values. Rental inflation remains subdued and positive for interest rates, but utilities and rates inflation remains high, raising housing costs. Smaller properties like flats and townhouses see stronger rental inflation than houses.
The South African Reserve Bank's Leading Business Cycle Indicator returned to negative year-on-year growth in September 2018 for the first time since July 2016, declining 0.5% and pointing to further slowing in new mortgage lending. Several factors contributed to the monthly decline, including residential building approvals and job advertisements. While some factors such as commodity prices and vehicle sales increased, they were not enough to offset the declines. The slowing growth in the leading indicator suggests new mortgage lending growth may continue slowing in the near term.
- The Western Cape property market slowed but remained resilient through its severe drought from 2017-2018. While the economy experienced recession in 2017, it has since recovered, with recent economic growth estimates and vacancy rates suggesting the property market is in relatively good shape compared to other regions.
- The drought negatively impacted agriculture, tourism, and sentiment, but the economy appears to have weathered its effects better than expected. While housing market activity remains slow, oversupply does not appear to be a major issue, and household finances are still stronger than in other regions.
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1. Review of2nd
Quarter Residential BuildingStatistics
–ThatAffordabilityChallenge
Last week, the release of StatsSA building statistics for June
completed the 2nd
quarter picture for the Residential
Building Sector, and a sharply weakening near term picture
hasbecomeincreasinglylikely.
For some time, the FNB-BER Building Confidence Survey has
been telling us not only of weakness at the front of the new
development pipeline, but also of survey respondents
pointing to deteriorating profitability in the Residential
BuildingSectorforsometime.
Andindeed,alookattheResidentialBuildingStatsofStatsSA
points to a Development Sector having battled to bring
competitively priced new housing stock to a market where
the existing home market is well-supplied and real home
valueshavebeen in declineforquitesometime.
KeyPoints
StatsSA building statistics point to relatively solid growth in residential
building completions of 47.9% year-on-year in the 2nd
quarter of 2019, and
suggest that the level of completions is at its highest in almost a decade.
However, South Africa is into the longest business cycle downturn in the
post-World War 2 era, the existing home market is well-supplied and price-
competitive, and new residential building affordability has deteriorated
relative to existing home prices as well as relative to household incomes,
according to our affordability indices.
A slowdown in the level of residential completions in the near term should be
expected given the current environment. And indeed, a further sharp year-
on-year decline in the number of residential units’ plans passed to the tune
of -24.8% in the 2nd
quarter, a useful leading indicator for building activity
trends, suggests that such a near term slowing is likely.
As the development sector attempts to address the heightened affordability
challenge in a tough economic environment, the emphasis has been
increasingly on ‘‘flats and townhouses’’ as opposed to free standing homes,
the data would suggest. We would also expect to see the average size of units
passed and planned start to decline, something which hasn’t happened in
recent years according to this data.
19 August 2019
Property
Insights
John Loos:
Property Strategist
FNB Commercial Property
Finance
Tel: 087-312 1351
Email:
john.loos@fnb.co.za
2. 2
Residential Building Completions – strongest
in almost a decade but new plans decline
significantly
The StatsSA Residential Building Statistics make for
some interesting reading of late, with building
completions growth having arguably been
surprisingly strong at a time when the country is well
into its longest business cycle downward phase in the
post-World War 2 period, and the existing residential
market is well supplied and showing real price
declines.
In the 2nd
quarter of 2019, year-on-year growth in
residential units completed was a strong 47.9%, only
marginally slower than the 1st
quarter’s 48.3%. These
2 quarterly growth rates in the 1st
half of 2019 were
the highest growth rates since mid-2004.
And reaching 12,661 in the 2nd
quarter of 2019, the
quarter’s number of residential units completed was
the highest in almost a decade too, since the 14.618
units completed in the final quarter of 2019 in the
aftermath of the pre-2008 housing bubble.
However, these levels by no means represent
boomtimes, remaining fairly modest compared to the
20,284 units completed in the 2nd
quarter of 2007,
at the peak of last decade’s building boom.
It has, however, been an interesting ‘‘mini-surge’’ in
completions levels over the past year or so, coming at
a time when both the economic and property market
cycles have been in a downward phase. One factor
perhaps having been mildly in the Residential
Building Sector’s favour, though, has been the
Residential Mortgage Lending Sector’s attempts to
be grow their lending where there is little natural
market growth, through increasing lending appetite
and approval rates, as well as squeezing home loan
pricing to become more competitive.
But lending appetite aside, this surge just appears to
be a natural lag of the property and economic cycle
due to the long time lag from when planning of
projects starts until completion.
Residential Building Plans Passed – the
“forward”lookingpictureisless rosy
If we now turn to a more forward looking indicator, i.e.
the number of units’ plans passed, a leading indicator
of the direction of building completions to come in
future, then we see what appears to be a response
emerging to the weaker economic and market
conditions, i.e. a sharp decline in plans passed.
The number of units’ plans passed declined year-on-
year by -24.8%, after a 1st
quarter decline of -13.7%
and the 3rd
consecutive quarter of year-on-year
decline.
These quarterly declines should begin to feed
through into weaker completions growth in the very
near term
The New Residential Unit Affordability
Challenge
The year-on-year inflation rate in the value per
square metre of plans passed and plans completed
have both broadly slowed, as the slower existing
home market, with real average price deflation, has
made it increasingly tough for the new development
sector to compete with existing prices.
However, at just over 6% year-on-year inflation per
quarter for the 1st
2 quarters of 2019, average value
per square metre of new completions still inflates at
above the FNB House Price Index for Existing Houses,
whose rate is around 3.5% year-on-year through this
period.
And over the past decade or more, the inflation rate
in value per square metre of plans passed has far out-
paced existing house price inflation.
We compile 2 indices with base year 2007 = 100,
3. 3
using the FNB Existing House Price Index and the
Average Value Per Square Metre of Residential
Building Plans Passed. We take 2007 because this
was the tail end of last decade’s residential building
boom. From 2007 onward, the index for average
value of plans passed per square metre out-inflated
the FNB Existing House Price Index to the extent that
it was 51% higher than the latter index by the 2nd
quarter of 2019.
This gives an idea to what extent new building values
have become less competitive since 2007, and
largely explains why, even despite a little surge in
completions of late, building completions remain well
below the 2007 and prior years’ levels.
Examining affordability on completed units relative to
average employee remuneration, we have also seen a
noticeable deterioration since around 2013.
We compile 2 affordability indices for new residential
units completed. The first one is the Average Value of
Units Completed/Average Employee Remuneration
Index (In Index form because the Employee
Remuneration Time Series is in Index form). This
Index was 42.6% higher (i.e. affordability had
deteriorated) by the end of 2018 compared to its
mid-2012 level.
We then compile a 2nd
index which relates more to
credit-dependent purchases and the cost of credit,
i.e. the Instalment Repayment Value on a 100% bond
on the Average Unit Competed Value/Average
employee Remuneration Index.
This index is thus not only influenced by average
value of units completed and employee
remuneration trends, but also by interest rate
changes and levels.
Given that interest rates today (despite a recent mild
reduction) are mildly higher than back in 2012, this
index has risen by slightly more than the 1st
affordability index, and by the end of 2018 was
59.3% above an early-2013 multi-year low.
So building cost inflation relative to household
incomes and existing house price growth appear to
have made it tougher for the New Development
Sector to bring competitively priced stock to the
market.
TheResponsetotheAffordabilityChallenge–
GreaterEmphasison FlatsandTownhouses
One would expect to see a response to the
affordability challenge, which would either include
more economical land use (densification) or building
of smaller units or units with less ‘‘frills’’.
It would appear that an intensified drive to use land
more efficiently has been the order of the day in
recent years, as opposed to building smaller average-
sized units. The average size of units built has come
down over the long term since the 1970s, but over
the past 7 years it has actually increased, perhaps
surprisingly.
From a decade low of 107.4 square metres early in
2013, the average size of units completed had risen
to 159.1 square metres by the 2nd
quarter of 2019.
This would perhaps appear a little out of place in the
recent period of economic stagnation and toughening
financial conditions for households.
However, there can be 2 reasons for this. It is possible
that a lower portion of the overall building activity is
taking place of late in the so-called Affordable
Housing Market, but that is tough to ascertain. But
secondly, a more detailed look at the data shows a big
drive to build far more flats and townhouses as a
share of the total market in recent years.
We have seen the ‘‘Flats and Townhouses’’ category
of units completed increasing its share of total
completions sharply, from 23.56% back in 2011 to a
dominant 60.6% by 2019 to date
61.8%
51.0%
29529
11851
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Divergence BetweenNew residentialUnit Costs and Overall
House Prices, and Level of New Buildings Planned
Percentage difference between the Index for the Average Value of Residential Units
Plans Passed versus the FNB House Price Index, with 2007=100 in both indices
Total Number of Residential Units' Building Plans Passed - Right Axis
4. 4
This is likely densification, much of this segment likely
even being multi-story.
Losing share the most significantly is the free
standing homes (‘‘dwelling houses’’) smaller than 80
square metres in size, from 48.15% of total
completions back in 2011 to 19.08% as at 2019 to
date.
Losing share too, albeit more moderately, was the
‘‘Dwelling Houses Larger than 80 square metres’’
category, the larger free-standing home category. Its
share shrunk from 28.3% in 2011 to 20.3% by 2019
to date.
Therefore, the response from the Development
Sector to affordability challenges appears to have
been more in the form of more economic land use
and densification in terms of land and less in terms of
average unit size.
The trend looks set to continue if one looks and the
rising share of ‘‘Flats ad Townhouses’’ plans passed
too. In 2019 to date, 54.5% of plans passed were flats
and townhouses, up from 27.9% in 2011.
In Conclusion
StatsSA building statistics point to relatively solid
growth in residential building completions, and
suggest that the level of completions is at its highest
in almost a decade.
However, South Africa is into the longest business
cycle downturn in the post-World War 2 era, the
existing home market is well-supplied and price-
competitive, and new residential building
affordability has deteriorated according to our
affordability indices.
Therefore, a slowdown in the level of residential
completions in the near term should be expected
given the current environment. And indeed, a further
sharp year-on-year decline in the number of
residential units’ plans passed, a useful leading
indicator for building activity trends, suggests that
such a near term slowing is likely.
As the development sector attempts to address the
heightened affordability challenge in a tough
economic environment, the emphasis has been
increasingly on ‘‘flats and townhouses’’ as opposed
to free standing homes, the data would suggest. We
would also expect to see the average size of units
passed and planned start to decline, something
which hasn’t happened in recent years according to
this data.
Disclaimer
AdivisionofFirstRandBankLimited. An Authorised Financial Services and Credit Provider (NCRCP20).
Disclaimer: The information in this publication is derived from sources which are regarded as accurate and reliable, is of a general nature only,
does not constitute advice and may not be applicable to all circumstances. Detailed advice should be obtained in individual cases. No
responsibility for any error, omission or loss sustained by any person acting or refraining from acting as a result of this publication isaccepted
by FirstRand GroupLimitedand/ orthe authors of the material