Every month, beginning in January 2002, CDRI will publish a snap shot of recent and important economic indicators, both for Cambodia and for Cambodia\'s major economic partners. These include economic growth, prices, exchange rates, monetary developments, foreign trade and national budget operations.
Source: http://www.cdri.org.kh
1. ISSN 1810-6358
វិទ នបណ្ណុះប ល និង ្រ វ្រ វេដើម្បីអភិវឌ្ឍន៍កម្ពុ
CDRI—Cambodia’s leading independent
development policy research institute
រ យ រណ៍ថ្មីៗស្តីពីេសដ្ឋកិច្ចកម្ពុ
Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy
វចឆក ២០១១ ¼
ិ ិ November 2011
រតន វឌ ន
័ ¼ Roth Vathana
អ៊ន វមល ¼ Ourn Vimoil
ួ ិ
បកែ បេ យ៖ យូ សិទីរទធ និង េខង េសង
ធ ិ
ភនេពញ កមពុជ
ំ
Phnom Penh, Cambodia
TO SUBSCRIBE, PLEASE CONTACT:
Office address: #56, Street 315, Tuol Kork, Phnom Penh, Cambodia; postal address: CDRI, PO Box 622 Phnom Penh, Cambodia;
tel: (855-23) 881-384/881-701/881-916/883-603 ; fax: (855-23) 880-734 ; email: pubs@cdri.org.kh; website: http://www.cdri.org.kh
2. Cambodia Economic Flash Report –November 2011
របក្រ យ ងសំ ន់ៗ Highlights
របយករណេនះ
៍ បក យពីសូចនករេសដកិចសំខន់ៗរបស់កមពុជ
ច
This report highlights a number of economic
indicators of Cambodia and its partners. It
នងប
ិ បេទសៃដគូពណជជកមម
ិ េ យេធករេ ប បេធ បតួេលខ compares recent figures with those of earlier
កនុងែខថមីៗេនះ ជមួយនងែខមុនៗ។
ឹ periods.
េន តមសទី២ ឆ២០១១ កម បក អភវឌ ន៍កមពុជ មនមនអនុមត
ី នំ ឹ ិ ិ ័ In the second quarter of 2011, there were no new
fixed asset investments in agriculture approved by
វនិេយគគិតជ ទពយសកមមជប់
ិ ប់ថីម កនុងវស័យកសិកមមេទ។ េនែខ
ិ
the Council for the Development of Cambodia. In
កញ ចំនួនេភញ វេទសចរបរេទសសរុបមកដល់កមពុជ ធក់ចុះ ១៦%
ញ September, total foreign arrivals to Cambodia
េធ បនឹងែខមុន មក តម ២០៩.៨០៤នក់។ េភញ វេទសចរមកស មក
ឹ dropped by 16 percent from a month earlier, to
209,804. Visitors for holidays decreased by 18
លំ ែហ ធក់ចុះ ១៨% មក តឹម ១៩៤.៤៨៥នក់ នង េភញ វមក
ិ percent to 194,485 and other arrivals by 5.8
កនុងបំណងេផ ងៗេទ ត ធក់ចុះ ៥.៨% មក តម ឹ ២៦១៨នក់។ percent to 2618. Business arrivals went up by 8.8
ំ
េភញ វមកេធជនួញ េកន ៨.៨% ដល់ ១២.៧០១នក់។
percent to 12,701.
េនែខសី តៃមអនុមតិគេ មង In August the value of villa and house construction
ងសង់ភូមិ គះ និងផទះ េនទី កង
ឹ
approvals in Phnom Penh rose by 627 percent
ភនេពញ េកន ៦២៧% េធ បនឹងែខមុន ដល់ ៨០,៨ នដុ រ េហយ compared to the preceding month, to USD80.8 m,
ំ
តៃមអនុមតិគេ មង ងសង់េផ ងៗេទ ត េកន ២៤% ដល់ ១៥,៥ and “other” rose by 24 percent to USD15.5 m. The
នដុ រ។ តៃមអនុមតិគេ មងផទះែលង ធក់ចុះ ៦៣% មក តឹម value of flats went down by 63 percent to
USD20.7 m.
២០,៧ នដុ រ។
In August, the Phnom Penh consumer price index
េនែខសី សនទស ន៍ៃថទំនិញេ ប បស់េនទី កងភមេពញ ( គប់មុខ
ំ (all items) rose by 6.4 percent year on year. The
ទំនិញ) េកន ៦,៤% េធ បនឹងមួយឆមុន។ ៃថ
នំ រ និងេភសជជៈ prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages went
មនមនជតិ េកន ៧,៦% ៃថ ន ក់េន និងទឹកេភង េកន ៤,០%
up by 7.6 percent, housing and utilities by 4.0
ិ
percent and household furnishings and operations
េហយៃថដំេណករ និងសមរៈបំពក់កុ ងផទះ េកន ២,១%។ េនែខតុ
ភ ន by 2.1 percent. In October the price of diesel fuel
មស៊ូត ធក់ៃថ ២,៦% េធ បនឹងែខមុន មក តឹម ៤៨៤៦,៨េរ ល/លី ត dropped 2.6 percent from the previous month, to
៉
េហយ េ បង ំ ង ធក់ៃថ ២,៤% មក តឹម ៥១៩៧,១េរ ល/លី ត។
KHR4846.8/litre and of gasoline by 2.4 percent to
KHR5197.1/litre.
េនែខតុ អ បូរ បក់េរ លេនទីផ រ ធក់ៃថ ០,៥% ទល់នឹង
In October market exchange rate of the riel
បក់ដុ រ េធ បនឹងែខមុន មក តម ៤១០១,៨េរ ល/ដុ
ឹ រ ។ េនែខ
depreciated against the dollar by 0.5 percent from
ដែដល បក់េរ ល េឡងៃថ ០,២% ទល់នឹង បក់បតៃថ និង េឡងៃថ a month earlier, to KHR4101.8 per dollar. In the
same period, the riel appreciated against the Thai
០,១% ទល់នឹង បក់ដុងេវ ត ម។
baht by 0.2 percent and by 0.1 percent against the
Vietnamese dong.
េនែខសី ករនំចូលសមរៈសំ ណង់ ធក់ចុះ ១,៧% េធ បនងែខមុន
ភ ឹ
មក តម ៣,៨
ឹ នដុ រ េហយករនំចូលែដកែថប ធក់ចុះ ៥២%
In August, imports of construction equipment
មក តម ៣,៤ នដុ រ។ ករនំចូលសុ ី មងត៍ េកន ១,៥% ដល់
៉ ់ decreased by 1.7 percent from the preceding
ឹ
month to USD3.8 m and of steel by 52 percent to
៤,៨ នដុ រ េហយករនំចូលេ បងមស៊ូត ធក់ចុះ ៩,៧% មក តម
៉ ឹ USD3.4 m. Imports of cement increased by 1.5
៣៨,៩ នដុ រ នងករនំចូលមស៊ូតេខ ធក់ចុះ ២៧% មក តឹម
ិ ៉ ម percent to USD4.8 m. Imports of diesel oil
៥,៩ នដុ រ។ ករនំចូលេ បង ំង េកន ៦,៨% ដល់ ២៥,៤ ន dropped by 9.7 percent to USD38.9 m and of fuel
oil by 27 percent to USD5.9 m. Imports of
ដុ រ។ េនែខដែដល ករនំេចញសំ េល កបំពក់ ( គប់ បេភទ) ធក់ gasoline went up by 6.8 percent to USD25.4 m. In
ចុះ ១៥% មក តម ៣៧២,១
ឹ នដុ រ េហយករនំេចញែសបកេជង
the same month, exports of clothing (all kinds)
ធក់ចុះ ២២% មក តម ២៣,២ នដុ រ នងករនំេចញផលិតផល decreased by 15 percent to USD372.1 m, of shoes
ឹ ិ
by 22 percent to USD23.2 m and of other textile
យនភ័ណេផ ងៗ ធក់ចុះ ១០% មក តម ៥,១
ឹ នដុ រ។ products by 10 percent to USD5.1 m.
េនែខឧសភ បក់ចំណលចរនសរុបរបស់រ
ូ ភបល ធក់ចុះ ២០%
ិ
In May total government current revenue dropped
មក តម
ឹ ៤៧៤,៥ពន់ ឹ by 20 percent from a month earlier to KHR474.5
នេរ លេធ បនងមួយែខមុន។ ពនធនចូល
ំ
bn. Import and export taxes increased by 11
នងនំេចញ េកនេឡង ១១% ដល់ ៩៣,៦ពន់ នេរ ល េហយ
ិ
percent to KHR93.6 bn and non-tax revenues by
បក់ចំណលមនែមនពនធ េកន ៣៤% ដល់ ៧៨ពន់ នេរ ល។ 34 percent to KHR78 bn. Revenues from domestic
ូ ិ
Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 2
3. Cambodia Economic Flash Report –November 2011
បក់ចំណលពនធកុ ង សក ធក់ចុះ ៣៣% មក តម ៣០៣ពន់
ូ ន ឹ ន taxes decreased by 33 percent to KHR303 bn. In
the same month, total current expenditure went up
េរ ល។ េនែខដែដល ចំ យចរនសរុប េកនេឡង ៤,៨% ដល់
by 4.8 percent to KHR353.2 bn, of which
៣៥៣,២ពន់ នេរ ល េហយចំ
យជឧបតថមភធន នងជំនួយខង
ិ expenditure on subsidies and social assistance
សងគមកិចច េកន ៥៦% ដល់ ១២១,៧ពន់
នេរ ល។ ចំ យេល increased by 56 percent to KHR121.7 bn. Wages
expenditure dropped by 9.2 percent to KHR145 bn
េប វត រ ៍ ធក់ចុះ ៩,២% មក តឹម ១៤៥ពន់ នេរ ល េហយចំ យ
and other services by 13 percent to KHR86.4 bn.
េលេស កមមេផ ងៗ ធក់ចុះ ១៣% មក តម ៨៦,៤ពន់
ឹ នេរ ល។
In August in Thailand prices of rice decreased by
េនែខសី េន បេទសៃថ អងករធក់ៃថ ១២% េធ បនឹងែខមុន មក តម
ឹ 12 percent compared to the previous month to
៥៨២,៨ដុ រ/េ ន េកស៊ូ ធក់ៃថ ១,៣% មក តម ៤២៤៤,៧
ឹ USD582.8/tonne, of rubber by 1.3 percent to
USD4244.7/tonne and of maize and maize
ដុ រ/េ ន េហយ េពតនិងផលិតផលេធពីេពត ធក់ៃថ ២,៤%
products by 2.4 percent to USD439.3/tonne. In the
មក តម ៤៣៩,៣ដុ
ឹ រ/េ ន។ េនែខដែដល េន បេទសេវ ត ម same period in Vietnam, prices of rice increased
អងករ េឡងៃថ ៤,០% ដល់ ៥១៧ដុ រ/េ ន និង គប់ យចនទី េឡង by 4.0 percent to USD517/tonne and of cashew
nuts by 2.3 percent to USD9095/tonne, while
ៃថ ២,៣% ដល់ ៩០៩៥ដុ រ/េ ន សបេពលែដលេកស៊ូ ធក់ៃថ
rubber dropped by 0.1 percent to USD4247/tonne.
០,១% មក តម ៤២៤៧ដុ
ឹ រ/េ ន។
In August, Thai exports of rice dropped by 8.2
េនែខសី ករនំេចញអងករេនៃថ ធក់ចុះ ៨,២% េធ បនឹងែខមុន percent from the preceding month to USD590.3 m.
មក តម ៥៩០,៣ នដុ រ។ ករនំេចញេកស៊ូធមមជតិ នងជ័រ Exports of natural rubber and similar natural gums
ឹ ិ
went up by 5.4 percent to USD1128.4 m (74
ធមមជតិ េកន ៥,៤% ដល់ ១១២៨,៤ នដុ រ (៧៤% េធ បនឹង percent year on year) and maize and maize
មួយឆមុន) នង ករនំេចញេពត និងផលិតផលេធពីេពត េកន ១៧%
នំ ិ products by 17 percent to USD12.3 m (68 percent
ដល់ ១២,៣ នដុ រ (៦៨% េធ បនឹងមួយឆមន)។ កនុងែខេនះែដរ
នំ ុ year on year). In the same period, Vietnam’s
exports of rice increased 22 percent from the
េនេវ ត ម ករនំេចញអងករ េកនេឡង ២២% េធ បនឹងែខមុន ដល់
previous month to USD395 m, of rubber by 1.2
៣៩៥ នដុ រ ករនំេចញេកស៊ូ េកន ១,២% ដល់ ៣៤៤
ន percent to USD344 m and of cashew nuts by 13
ដុ រ នងករនំេចញ គប់ យចនទី េកន ១៣% ដល់ ១៩១ ន percent to USD191 m.
ិ
ដុ រ។ In September, US exports increased by 2.0 percent
from the preceding month to USD129.3 bn and
េនែខកញ ករនំេចញរបស់សហរដ
ញ េមរក េកន ២,០% េធ បនឹង
ិ Japan’s by 13 percent to USD77.6 bn. Exports of
ែខមុន ដល់១២៩,៣ពន់ នដុ រ េហយករនំេចញរបស់ជប៉ុន េកន
the euro zone dropped by 5.2 percent to USD212.3
bn. In August Malaysian exports went down 0.7
១៣% ដល់ ៧៧,៦ពន់ នដុ រ។ ករនំេចញរបស់តំបន់អឺរូ ៉ ធក់ចុះ
percent to USD19.6 bn and imports 4.1 percent to
៥,២% មក តម ២១២,៣ពន់
ឹ នដុ រ។ េនែខសី ករនំេចញ USD16 bn.
របស់មេឡសុ ី ធក់ចុះ ០,៧% មក តម ១៩,៦ពន់
៉ ឹ នដុ រ េហយ
In August, inflation in the US was 3.8 percent and
ករនំចូល ធក់ចុះ ៤,១% មក តម ១៦ពន់
ឹ នដុ រ។
0.2 percent in Japan. Inflation in the euro zone
remained unchanged. In the same period, inflation
េនែខសី អតិផរ េនសហរដ េមរក មន ៣,៨% និង េនជប៉ុន
ិ in China was 6.2 percent and 5.7 percent in Hong
០,២% ឯេនតំបន់អឺរូ ៉ េនេថរ។ កនុងែខេនះែដរ អតិផរ េន បេទស Kong, a 2.2 percentage point decrease compared to
ចន គឺ ៦,២% េហយេនហុងកុង ៥,៧% ឬ ធក់ចុះ ២,២ឯក ភគរយ a month earlier. Inflation in South Korea was 5.3
ិ
percent.
េធ បនឹងែខមុន។ អតិផរ េនកូេរខងតបូង មនក មត ៥,៣%។
៉ ិ
In October, the prices of soybeans (US No. 1)
េនែខតុ សែណកេស ង (US No. 1) ធក់ៃថ ៨,៤% មក តម
ឹ dropped by 8.4 percent compared to the previous
៤៦៧,៤ដុ រ/េ ន េពត (US No.2) ធក់ៃថ ១០% មក តម
ឹ month, to USD467.4/tonne, of maize (US No. 2)
២៧៤,៨ដុ រ/េ ន និងេកស៊ូ (SMR 5) ធក់ៃថ ៩,២% មក តម
by 10 percent to USD274.8/tonne and of rubber
ឹ
(SMR 5) by 9.2 percent to USD4149.2/tonne. In
៤១៤៩,២ដុ រ/េ ន។ េនែខដែដល េ បងេឆ (OPEC spot) the same month, the price of crude oil (OPEC
ធក់ៃថ ០,៧% មក តម ១០៩,៧ដុ
ឹ រ/ធុង េហយេ បង
ំង (US spot) decreased by 0.7 percent to
Gulf Coast) ធក់ៃថ ០,៧% មក តឹម ០,៧១ដុ រ/លី ត នង
USD109.7/barrel, of gasoline (US Gulf Coast) by
ិ
0.7 percent to USD0.71/litre and of diesel (low
េ បងមស៊ូត (low sulphur No. 2) ធក់ៃថ ៣,៤% មក តឹម ០,៧៥
៉ sulphur No. 2) by 3.4 percent to USD0.75/litre.
ដុ រ/លី ត។
Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 3
4. Cambodia Economic Flash Report –November 2011
សកម្ម ពេសដ្ឋកចសំ
ិ ្ច ន់ៗ និង ៃថ្លទនិញេ
ំ កម្ពុ
Main Economic Activities and Consumer Prices in Cambodia
Fixed Asset Investment Approvals by CDC Foreign Visitor Arrivals
Agriculture July 2010-September 2011
2008 Q3–2011 Q2 600
Other
300
Business
500
Holiday
250
400
000 persons
200
USD m
300
150 3
12 3
200 10 13
100
10
41.4 100 194
50 153
236
0.0 4.1 0.0
0 0
Mar 11
Nov 10
Jan 11
May 11
Jul 10
Jul 11
Sep 10
Sep 11
08Q3
08Q4
09Q1
09Q2
09Q3
09Q4
10Q1
10Q2
10Q3
10Q4
11Q1
11Q2
Including expansion projects.
Source: Council for the Development of Cambodia Source: Ministry of Tourism
Phnom Penh: Value of Construction Approvals CPI: Consumer Price Index
June 2010–August 2011 June 2010–August 2011
140 175
Other
15.5
Flats
120 160
Villas & houses
100 145
20.7
80
USD m
130
60
115
40 80.8
100
Jun 10
Sep 10
Oct 10
Jan 11
Feb 11
Mar 11
Apr 11
May 11
Jun 11
Jul 10
Aug 10
Nov 10
Dec 10
Jul 11
Aug 11
20
0
Jun 10
Aug 10
Oct 10
Dec 10
Feb 11
Jun 11
Aug 11
Apr 11
All items Food & non-alcoholic beverages
Clothing and footwear Housing and utilities
Household furnishings and operations
Source: Municipality of Phnom Penh Source: CDRI
Phnom Penh: Gasoline & Diesel Prices Interest Rates on 12-Month Bank Loans (%)
August 2010–October 2011 May 2010–July 2011
25
5197
6000
5000 20
Percentage Per Annum
4847
4000
15
Riels/ℓ
3000
10
2000
5
1000 Diesel
Riel loan rate
Gasoline
Dollar loan rate
0
0
Jan 11
May 10
Jul 10
Sep 10
Nov 10
Mar 11
May 11
Jul 11
Oct 10
Dec 10
Feb 11
Apr 11
Jun 11
Oct 11
Aug 10
Aug 11
Source: CDRI Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC
Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 4
5. Cambodia Economic Flash Report –November 2011
ន ពអ្រ ប្តូរ្រ ក់ និង ជំនួយអភិវឌ្ឍន៍ពីេ្រ ្របេទស
Exchange Rates and External Development Assistance
Riels per US Dollar Riels per THB & VND
August 2010–October 2011 August 2010–October 2011
142 26
4300
4202
4250 138 25
132.3
132.5
4200 134 24
KHR per VDN100
4102
4150
KHR per Baht
4185
4083
130 23
Thai baht (left)
4100
Vietnamese dong (right)
126 22
4050
4085
4077
122 21
4000
19.7
19.6
Market rate
118 20
3950 Official rate
114 19
3900
Oct 10
Dec 10
Feb 11
Oct 11
Aug 10
Apr 11
Jun 11
Aug 11
Aug 10
Oct 10
Dec 10
Feb 11
Apr 11
Jun 11
Aug 11
Oct 11
Source: National Bank of Cambodia Source: National Bank of Cambodia
Monetary Survey (%) Domestic Credit (%)
May 2010–July 2011 May 2010–July 2011
100 140
80 120
100
60
80
40
60
20
40
0 20
-20 0
-20
-40
May 10
Jul 10
Sep 10
Nov 10
Mar 11
May 11
Jul 11
Jan 11
May 10
Nov 10
Jan 11
May 11
Jul 10
Sep 10
Mar 11
Jul 11
Annualised growth rate (M2) Annualised change in domestic credit
Annualised growth rate (M1) Annualised change in private sector credit
Growth over the previous 12 months (M2) Previous 12 months' growth in domestic credit
Source: National Bank of Cambodia Source: National Bank of Cambodia
Monetary Operations External Development Assistance Disbursement
May 2010–July 2011 Top Five Development Assistance
23000 2005–2009
20000 180
17000
150
14000
11000 120
KHR bn
KHR bn
8000
90
5000
2000 60
-1000
30
-4000
-7000 0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
-10000
May 10
Nov 10
Jan 11
May 11
Jul 10
Sep 10
Mar 11
Jul 11
Transportation Health
Liquidity Net Foreign Assets Private Sector Credit
Governance & Administration Education
Government Deposits Other Agriculture
Source: National Bank of Cambodia Source: Cambodia Aid Effectiveness Report 2009, CDC
Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 5
6. Cambodia Economic Flash Report –November 2011
ណិជកម្មេ្រ
្ជ ្របេទស និង រអនុវត្តថវិ តិ
External Trade and National Budget Operations
Cambodian Total Imports Cambodian Total Exports
June 2010–August 2011 June 2010–August 2011
25 500
Steel Other textile products
450
Shoes 5.1
Cement
20 400 Clothing (all kinds)
Construction equipment 23.2
350
15 300
3.39
USD m
USD m
250
10 200
372.1
150
4.84
5 100
50
3.83
0 0
Jun 10
Aug 10
Oct 10
Dec 10
Feb 11
Apr 11
Jun 11
Aug 11
Jun 10
Aug 10
Oct 10
Dec 10
Feb 11
Apr 11
Jun 11
Aug 11
Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC
Imports: Energy Current Budget Operations
June 2010–August 2011 March 2010–May 2011
60 400
Gasoline (E.A)
350
Diesel (D.O)
50 Fuel oil (FO) 300
254.7
250
40
KHR bn
USD m
200
30 150 121.3
100
20
50
4.9
0
10
-50
0 -100
Oct 10
Dec 10
Feb 11
Jun 10
Aug 10
Apr 11
Jun 11
Aug 11
Mar 10
May 10
Jul 10
Sep 10
Nov 10
Mar 11
May 11
Jan 11
Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC Source: MEF Bulletin
Current Budget Revenue Current Budget Expenditure
March 2010–May 2011 March 2010–May 2011
800 700
Non-tax Other services
Import and Export taxes
700 Subsidies and social assistance
600
Domestic taxes
58 Wages
600
500
500 79 78
84 400
KHR bn
KHR bn
400 86
300
80 94
300
450
200 122
200
307
303 100
100
145
0 0
Jul 10
May 10
Sep 10
Nov 10
May 11
Mar 10
Jan 11
Mar 11
Mar 10
May 10
Jul 10
Sep 10
Nov 10
Jan 11
Mar 11
May 11
Source: MEF Bulletin Source: MEF Bulletin
Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 6