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ISSN 1810-6358




វិទ សានបណ្ដុះបណា្ដល និង ្រសាវ្រជាវេដើម ីអភិវឌ ន៍កម្ពុជា
                     CDRI—Cambodia’s leading independent
                      development policy research institute




      របាយការណ៍ថ្មីៗស្តីពីេសដ្ឋកិចកម្ពុជា
                                  ្ច
    Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy

                                   កញ ២០១២ /
                                     ញ                        September 2012

                                                រតន វឌ ន / Roth Vathana
                                                 ័

                                                 ប៉ុន ដូរ ី   ¼ Pon Dorina

                                         បកែ្របេ      យ៖ យូ សិទីរទធ និង េខង េសង
                                                                ធ ិ




                                                     ភនេពញ កមពុជ
                                                       ំ

                                 Phnom Penh, Cambodia


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Cambodia Economic Flash Report –September 2012
                             ករបក្រ      យ      ងសំខន់ៗ                                                           Highlights

របយករណេនះ បក្រ
      ៍                        យពសូចនករេសដ្ឋកិចចមយចំនួនរបស់កមពុជ នង
                                 ី               ួ                ិ
                                                                                                This report highlights a number of economic indicators
                                                                                                of Cambodia and its partners. It compares recent figures
ប    ្ត ្របេទសជៃដគូពណជជកមម េ
                     ិ                        យេធ្វករេ្រប បេធៀបតួេលខកនុងែខថមៗ
                                                   ើ                        ី                   with those of earlier periods.
េនះ ជមួយនងែខមុនៗ។
         ឹ                                                                                      Fixed asset investments in industry approved by the
កនុង្រតមសទី២
       ី               ឆ២០១២
                        នំ               វនិេយគគតជ្រទពយសកមមជប់
                                          ិ     ិ                                    ប់ខង       Council for the Development of Cambodia in the
                                                                                                second quarter of 2012 decreased by 16.7 percent from
ឧស ហកមមអនុមតេ
           ័                 យ CDC ធក់ចុះ ១៦,៧% មក្រតម ១៧៣,៧
                                    ្ល               ឹ                                   ន
                                                                                                a quarter earlier or 32.4 percent year on year, to
ដុ   ្ល រ េធៀបនង្រតមសមុន ឬធក់ចុះ ៣២,៤% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន។
               ឹ   ី       ្ល               ឹ    នំ ុ                                           USD173.7 m.
កនុងែខកកក      ចំននេភញ វបរេទសមកដល់សរុបេកន ១៣% េធៀបនងែខមុន
                  ួ                     ើ          ឹ                                            In July, total foreign visitor arrivals increased by 13
                                                                                                percent from the preceding month (19.0 percent year on
ឬេកន ១៩% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន។ េភញ វមកលំ ែហេកន ១៣,០% (១៥,០%
   ើ          ឹ    នំ ុ              ើ
                                                                                                year). Holiday arrivals rose by 13 percent (15 percent
េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) មកេធ្វជំនួញេកន ១២,០% (១៧,០% េធៀបនងមួយឆ ំ
     ឹ    នំ ុ      ើ      ើ                   ឹ    ន                                           year on year), business arrivals by 12 percent (17
មុន) នងមកកនុងបំណងេផ ងៗេកន ៣០% (៣៨១% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន)។
      ិ                 ើ                ឹ    នំ ុ                                              percent year on year) and “other” arrivals by 30 percent
                                                                                                (381 percent year on year).
េនែខកកក        តៃម្លអនុមតគេ្រមង
                         ិ                 ងសង់ភម្រគឹះនងផទះ េកន ៧៩៦,៥%
                                                ូ ិ    ិ      ើ
                                                                                                In July, the value of construction approvals for villas
(១៥,៥% េធៀបមួយឆមុន) ដល់ ១២,៨
               នំ                                     នដុ      ្ល រ គេ្រមងេផ ងៗេកន
                                                                                 ើ              and houses rose by 796.5 percent (15.5 percent year on
៨០៧,២% (១៧៣,២% េធៀបនងមួយឆមុន) ដល់ ៣៤,១
                    ឹ    នំ                                                  នដុ       ្ល រ។    year) to USD12.8 m and of “others” by 807.2 percent
                                                                                                (173.2 percent year on year) to USD34.1 m. The value
តៃម្លអនុមតគេ្រមង
          ិ                  ងសង់ផះែល្វង
                                  ទ             េកន
                                                  ើ    ៣០៣%           េធៀបនងែខមុន
                                                                           ឹ
                                                                                                of flat construction approvals rose 303 percent from a
ប៉ែន្តធក់ចុះ ៤៨,១% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន មក្រតម ២៩,៤
 ុ     ្ល               ឹ    នំ ុ    ឹ                                 នដុ     ្ល រ។            month earlier, but year on year decrease by 48.1 percent
                                                                                                to USD29.4 m.
េនែខមថុន សនទស ន៍ៃថ្លទនញេ្របើ្របស់ (្រគប់មខទំនញ) េកន ០,១%
     ិ               ំ ិ                 ុ   ិ    ើ
េធៀបនងែខមុន (១,៨% េធៀបនងែខដូចគឆមុន)។ ៃថ្លេសប ង
                              ន នំ                                                   រ នង
                                                                                                In June, the consumer price index (all items) went up
     ឹ                 ឹ                                                                ិ
                                                                                                0.1 percent from the preceding month (1.8 percent from
េភសជជៈគនជត្រ
       ម  ិ             េកន ០,៩% (៣,២% េធៀបនងមួយឆមុន) សេម្ល ក
                          ើ                 ឹ    នំ                                             the same period last year). Prices of food and non-
បំពក់នងែសបកេជងេកន ០,៥% (៣,៨% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) នង ៃថ្ល
      ិ      ើ  ើ                 ឹ    នំ ុ ិ                                                   alcoholic beverages rose by 0.9 percent (3.2 percent
                                                                                                year on year), clothing and footwear by 0.5 percent (3.8
សមរៈបំពក់នងៃថ្លដំេណរករកនុងផទះេកន
  ភ       ិ        ើ           ើ                   ០,៣%            (៣,៦%     េធៀបនង
                                                                                  ឹ             percent year on year) and household furnishings and
មួយឆមន)។ កនុងែខដែដល ៃថ្ល
    នំ ុ                                   ន ក់េន នងៃថ្លទកេភ្លងធក់ចុះ ០,៨%
                                                   ិ     ឹ    ើ ្ល                              operations by 0.3 percent (3.6 percent year on year). In
ប៉ែន្តេកន ០,៦% េធៀបនងមួយឆមុន។
 ុ                       នំ                                                                     the same month, housing and utilities prices dropped by
        ើ           ឹ
                                                                                                0.8 percent, but increased 0.6 percent year on year.
េនែខសី         ៃថ្លេ្របង       ំង េកន ៧,៦% េធៀបនងែខមុន (២,៩% េធៀប
                                    ើ           ឹ
                                                                                                In August, the price of gasoline increased by 7.6
នងមួយឆមុន) ដល់ ៥៣៤១េរៀល/លី្រត នងេ្របងមស៊ូត េកន ៦,៦%
 ឹ    នំ                       ិ      ៉      ើ                                                  percent from a month earlier (2.9 percent year on year)
(៣,៩% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) ដល់ ៥០៥៧េរៀល/លី្រត។
           ឹ    នំ ុ                                                                            to KHR5341/litre and of diesel by 6.6 percent (3.9
                                                                                                percent year on year) to KHR5057/litre.
េនែខមថុន
     ិ           អ្រ     ករ្របក់េលើបេញញ ើ ជ្របក់េរៀលរយៈេពល១២ែខ                           គឺ
                                                                                                In June, the interest rate on 12-month riel deposits was
៥,៨% (ធក់ចុះ ០,៣ ឯក
       ្ល                          ភគរយេធៀបនងែខមុន) េហយស្រមប់បេញញ ើ ជ
                                            ឹ         ើ                                         5.8 percent (a 0.3 percentage point drop from a month
្របក់ដុ     ្ល រ គឺ ៤,៤% (ធក់ចុះ ០,០៤ ឯក
                           ្ល                       ភគរយ)។                                      earlier) and that of dollar deposits was 4.4 percent (a
                                                                                                0.04 percentage point decrease).
េនែខសី           ្របក់េរៀលេនទផ រេឡងៃថ្ល
                             ី    ើ                    ០,០២%          េធៀបនងែខមុន
                                                                           ឹ
                                                                                                In August, the market exchange rate of the riel
(០,៦%       េធៀបនងមួយឆមន)
                 ឹ    នំ ុ               ទល់នង្របក់ដុ
                                             ឹ              ្ល រ   ប៉ុែន្តេនេថរទល់នង
                                                                                   ឹ            appreciated 0.02 percent (0.6 percent year on year)
្របក់បតៃថ នង្របក់ដុងេវៀត
           ិ                             ម។                                                     against the dollar. The riel exchange rate remained
                                                                                                unchanged against the Thai baht and the Vietnamese
េនែខមថុន
     ិ          ករនំេចញសេម្ល កបំពក់ (្រគប់្របេភទ)                    េកន
                                                                       ើ     ២៨,៤%              dong.
េធៀបនងែខមុន (១៨,៦% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) ដល់ ៤១១,២
     ឹ                  ឹ    នំ ុ                                              នដុ       ្ល រ
                                                                                                Exports of clothing (all kinds) in June rose by 28.4
េហយករនំេចញែសបកេជង េកន ៦,៩% (២៣,៩% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន)
  ើ             ើ   ើ                  ឹ    នំ ុ                                                percent from the previous month (18.6 percent year on
ដល់ ២៧,៩         នដុ       ្ល រ។ ករនំេចញផលិតផល យនភ័ណេផ ងេទៀតេកន
                                                    ្ឌ        ើ
                                                                                                year) to USD411.2 m and shoes by 6.9 percent (23.9
                                                                                                percent year on year) to USD27.9 m. Exports of other
៣,៣% ដល់ ៥,៣                 នដុ   ្ល រ ប៉ែន្តធក់ចុះ ៣,៥% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន។
                                         ុ     ្ល              ឹ    នំ ុ                        textile products increased by 3.3 percent, but decreased
កនុងែខដែដល ករនំចូលែដកែថបេកន ២,៣% (២២៦,០% េធៀបនង
                          ើ                   ឹ                                                 by 3.5 percent year on year, to USD5.3 m. In the same
មួយឆមន) ដល់ ១២,៥
    នំ ុ                           នដុ    ្ល រ េហើយករនំចូលសមរៈសំ ណង់ េកន
                                                            ភ
                                                                                                month, imports of steel went up 2.3 percent (226.0
                                                                       ើ
                                                                                                percent year on year) to USD12.5 m and construction
២២,១% (២០,៧% េធៀបនងមួយឆមុន) ដល់ ៥,៥
                  ឹ    នំ                                              នដុ    ្ល រ      រឯ
                                                                                         ី      equipment by 22.1 percent (20.7 percent year on year)
ករនំចូលសុី មងត៍ ធក់ចុះ
            ៉ ់  ្ល                   ២៣,៤%       ប៉ុែន្តេកន
                                                           ើ       ១៧,៤%     េធៀបនង
                                                                                  ឹ             to USD5.5 m. Imports of cement went down 23.4
                                                                                                percent, but increased 17.4 percent year on year.
មួយឆមន។ ករនំចូលេ្របង
    នំ ុ                                 ំងេកើន ៧,៨% េធៀបនងែខមុន (១០,៩%
                                                          ឹ                                     Imports of gasoline rose by 7.8 percent from a month
េធៀបនងមួយឆមន)
     ឹ    នំ ុ               េហយករនំចូលេ្របងមសូ តេខ
                               ើ             ៉     ម                  េកន
                                                                        ើ       ៣,៦%            earlier (10.9 percent year on year) and fuel oil by 3.6
(៦,៦% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) រឯករនំចូលេ្របងមសូ តធក់ចុះ ១៣,៦%
                នំ ុ               ៉    ្ល                                                      percent (6.6 percent year on year). Imports of diesel oil
           ឹ         ី
                                                                                                dropped by 13.6 percent, but rose by 0.8 percent year
មក្រតម ៣៩,៥
     ឹ                 នដុ     ្ល រ ប៉ែន្តេកន ០,៨% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន ។
                                     ុ      ើ           ឹ    នំ ុ




                                                                                                      Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 2
Cambodia Economic Flash Report –September 2012
កនុងែខមថុន ចំណលចរន្តសរុបរបស់រ ្ឋ ភបល ធក់ចុះ ៧,៥% មក្រតម
       ិ      ូ                   ិ   ្ល              ឹ                                                           on year, to USD39.5 m.
៥៧២,៨ពន់                 នេរៀល េធៀបនងែខមុន ប៉ែន្តេកន ២៧,៩% េធៀបនងឆ ំ
                                    ឹ       ុ      ើ            ឹ ន                                               In June, total government current revenue went down
មុន។ ចំណលបនពពនធនចូលនងនំេចញេកន ១០,៦% (១៩,២% េធៀប
        ូ       ំ
                                                                                                                  7.5 percent from the preceding month but year on year
            ី       ិ       ើ
                                                                                                                  increased by 27.9 percent, to KHR572.8 bn. Revenue
នងឆមន)។ ចំណលពនធកុ នង្រសុក ធក់ចុះ ៧,៥% (េកន ៣៤,៨ េធៀបនង
 ឹ នំ ុ    ូ               ្ល            ើ           ឹ                                                            from import and export taxes rose by 10.6 percent (19.2
ឆមុន) េហយ ចំណលមនែមនពនធ ធក់ចុះ ៣០,១% (េកន ៦,២% េធៀប
 នំ     ើ    ូ ិ        ្ល             ើ                                                                          percent year on year). Revenue from domestic taxes
                                                                                                                  dropped by 7.5 percent (34.8 percent increase year on
នងឆមន)។ កនុងែខដែដល ចំ
 ឹ នំ ុ                                       យចរន្តសរុបរបស់រ ្ឋ ភបល េកន ៧,២%
                                                                  ិ    ើ                                          year) and from non-taxes by 30.1 percent (6.2 percent
ដល់     ៥៧៥,២ពន់                   នេរៀល      ប៉ែន្តធក់ចុះ
                                               ុ     ្ល             ៦,៣%            េធៀបនងឆមុន។
                                                                                         ឹ នំ                     rise year on year). In the same period, total current
ចំ      យេលើេបៀវត រ ៍ ធក់ចុះ ៣២,៥% (៩,៨% េធៀបនងឆមុន) មក្រតម
                       ្ល                                                                                         expenditure increased by 7.2 percent but year on year
                                              ឹ នំ        ឹ
                                                                                                                  dropped by 6.3 percent to KHR575.2 bn. Expenditure
២០៤,៥ពន់                       ី     ភ   ិ ំ ួ
                        នេរៀល រឯឧបតថមធន នងជនយសងគមកចេកន ៩២,៧%
                                                  ិ ច ើ                                                           on wages went down 32.5 percent (9.8 percent year on
ដល់ ១៨៣,៦ពន់                   នេរៀល ប៉ែន្តធក់ចុះ ២៦,៨% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន ។
                                      ុ     ្ល               ឹ    នំ ុ                                            year) to KHR204.5 bn, while that on subsidies and
                                                                                                                  social assistance rose by 92.7 percent, but year on year
េនែខមថុន
     ិ                អងករៃថ        េឡងៃថ្ល
                                      ើ        ១៤,២%              េធៀបនងែខមុន
                                                                       ឹ                     (៣២,០%               decreased by 26.8 percent to KHR183.6 bn.
េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) ដល់ ៧៣៧,៩ដុ
     ឹ    នំ ុ                                        ្ល រ/េ      ន។ េកស៊ូ ធក់ៃថ្ល ៦,១%
                                                                            ្ល
                                                                                                                  The price of Thai rice in June increased by 14.2 percent
(២៩,២% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) មក្រតម ៣១០៤,៩ដុ
            ឹ    នំ ុ     ឹ                                                         ្ល រ/េ   ន រឯេម
                                                                                                ី                 from a month earlier (32.0 percent year on year) to
 ំ
ដឡូងេឈើ េឡងៃថ្ល ១២,២% ដល់ ៣៣៧,៥ដុ                                         ្ល រ/េ      ន ប៉ែន្តធក់ៃថ្ល
                                                                                         ុ     ្ល
                                                                                                                  USD737.9/tonne. The price of rubber dropped by 6.1
          ើ
                                                                                                                  percent    (29.2    percent     year   on year)       to
១៣,០% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន។ ករនំេចញអងករេនៃថ ធក់ចុះ ៣៩,៦%
           ឹ    នំ ុ                 ្ល                                                                           USD3104.9/tonne. The price of tapioca went up 12.2
េធៀបនងែខមុន (៤៩,៣% េធៀបនងមួយឆមុន) មក្រតម ៣០៦,២
     ឹ                  ឹ    នំ        ឹ                                                                   ន      percent but year on year dropped by 13.0 percent to
                                                                                                                  USD337.5/tonne. Exports of Thai rice went down 39.6
ដុ    ្ល រ េហយករនំេចញេកស៊ូធមមជតិ នងជ័រធមមជតិ ធក់ចុះ ៩,៤%
             ើ                    ិ           ្ល
                                                                                                                  percent from the preceding month (49.3 percent year on
(៣១,៥%            េធៀបនងមួយឆមន)
                       ឹ    នំ ុ                    មក្រតម
                                                         ឹ               ៦៥៣,២               នដុ         ្ល រ។    year) to USD306.2 m and natural rubber and similar
           ំ
ករនំេចញេម ដឡូងេឈើ ធក់ចុះ ៣៧,៤% មក្រតម ១២១,៣
                   ្ល               ឹ                                                           នដុ        ្ល រ   natural gums by 9.4 percent (31.5 percent drop year on
                                                                                                                  year) to USD653.2 m. Exports of tapioca decreased by
ប៉ែន្តេកន ២៧,៨% េធៀបនងមួយឆមុន ។
 ុ      ើ            ឹ    នំ                                                                                      37.4 percent, but year on year rose by 27.8 percent to
េនែខមថុន អងករេនេវៀត                      ម ធក់ៃថ្ល ២,៧% េធៀបនងែខមុន (៩,១%
                                            ្ល                                                                    USD121.3 m.
     ិ                                                       ឹ
េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) មក្រតម ៤៣៦,៧ដុ
     ឹ    នំ ុ     ឹ                                            ្ល រ/េ   ន េហយេកស៊ូធក់ៃថ្ល
                                                                             ើ      ្ល                            In June, rice prices in Vietnam decreased by 2.7 percent
                                                                                                                  from the preceding month (9.1 percent year on year) to
៩,៥% (៣៤,៩% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) មក្រតម ២៨៣៣,៣ដុ
                 ឹ    នំ ុ     ឹ                                                                ្ល រ/េ     ន
                                                                                                                  USD436.7/tonne and rubber by 9.5 percent (34.9
រឯ្រគប់
 ី           ្វ យចនទី េឡងៃថ្ល ៣,៤% ដល់ ៧០០០ដុ
                        ើ                                                  ្ល រ/េ      ន ប៉ែន្តធក់ៃថ្ល
                                                                                          ុ     ្ល                percent year on year) to USD2833.3/tonne. The price of
១៧,៣%          េធៀបនងមួយឆមន។
                         នំ ុ                   កនុងែខដែដល               ករនំេចញអងករ                     េកន      cashew nuts rose by 3.4 percent but year on year
                    ឹ                                                                                      ើ
                                                                                                                  dropped by 17.3 percent to USD7000/tonne. In the
១៥,៧% (១៩,៣% េធៀបនងមួយែខមុន) ដល់ ៣៨៣
                  ឹ                                                                  នដុ      ្ល រ េហយ
                                                                                                     ើ            same period, exports of rice went up 15.7 percent (19.3
្រគប់     ្វ យច័នទី          េកន
                               ើ    ៣,៤%       (២១,២%              េធៀបនងមួយឆមន)
                                                                        ឹ    នំ ុ                     ដល់         percent year on year) to USD383 m and cashew nuts by
                                                                                                                  3.4 percent (21.2 percent year on year) to USD154 m.
១៥៤        នដុ        ្ល រ    រឯករនំេចញេកស៊ូ
                               ី                           ធក់ចុះ ២៧,៦% (៣០,៣%
                                                            ្ល
                                                                                                                  Exports of rubber dropped by 27.6 percent (30.3 percent
េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) មក្រតម ១៧០
     ឹ    នំ ុ     ឹ                               នដុ         ្ល រ។                                              year on year) to USD170 m.
េនែខកកក           ករនំេចញរបស់សហរដ្ឋ                    េមរក ធក់ចុះ ១,៤% មក្រតម
                                                          ិ  ្ល              ឹ                                    In July, US exports declined by 1.4 percent from a
១៣០,៨ពន់                នដុ        ្ល រ េធៀបនងែខមុន ប៉ែន្តេកន ៣,១% េធៀបនងមួយ
                                                     ុ
                                                                                                                  month earlier, but year on year increased by 3.1 percent
                                             ឹ              ើ           ឹ
                                                                                                                  to USD130.8 bn. Exports of the euro zone dropped 5.6
ឆមុន។ ករនំេចញេនតំបន់អរូ ៉ ធក់ចុះ ៥,៦% (៥,១% េធៀបនងមួយ
 នំ                  ឺ     ្ល                    ឹ                                                                percent (5.1 percent year on year) to USD191 bn and of
ឆមុន) មក្រតម ១៩១ពន់
 នំ        ឹ                             នដុ     ្ល រ េហយករនំេចញរបស់ជប៉នធក់ចុះ
                                                        ើ             ុ ្ល                                        Japan by 6.1 percent (7.1 percent year on year) to
                                                                                                                  USD66.8 bn.
៦,១% (៧,១ េធៀបនឹងមួយឆមន) មក្រតម ៦៦,៨ពន់
                     នំ ុ     ឹ                                                     នេរៀល។
                                                                                                                  In August, the price of USA 2/4 rice rose 2.3 percent
េនែខសី           អងករ USA 2/4 េឡងៃថ្ល ២,៣% ដល់ ៥៨៥ដុ
                                ើ                                                               ្ល រ/េ     ន      from the preceding month, but year on year dropped by
េធៀបនងែខមុន ប៉ែន្តធក់ៃថ្ល ៥,៥% េធៀបនងឆមុន។ អងករ Thai 100% B
     ឹ       ុ     ្ល               ឹ នំ                                                                          5.5 percent, to USD585/tonne. Thai 100% B rice
                                                                                                                  increased by 2.9 percent (3.3 percent year on year) to
េឡងៃថ្ល ២,៩% (៣,៣% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) ដល់ ៦០១ដុ
  ើ                     ឹ    នំ ុ                                                            ្ល រ/េ      ន។
                                                                                                                  USD601/tonne. In the same month, the price of
កនុងែខដែដល សែណកេសៀង (US No.1) េឡងៃថ្ល ១,១% (២៨,១%
              ្ត                ើ                                                                                 soybeans (US No. 1) rose 1.1 percent (28.1 percent year
េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) ដល់ ៦៥៦,៦ដុ
     ឹ    នំ ុ                                        ្ល រ/េ     ន នង េពត (US No.2)
                                                                    ិ                                             on year) to USD656.6/tonne and maize (US No. 2) by
                                                                                                                  1.2 percent (7.9 percent year on year) to
េឡងៃថ្ល ១,២% (៧,៩% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) ដល់ ៣៣១,២ដុ
  ើ                     ឹ    នំ ុ                                                            ្ល រ/េ      ន។
                                                                                                                  USD331.2/tonne. The price of rubber (SMR 5) dropped
េកស៊ូ (SMR 5) ធក់ៃថ្ល ៩,៧% េធៀបនងែខមុន (៤៣,១% េធៀបនង
               ្ល               ឹ                  ឹ                                                              by 9.7 percent from a month earlier (43.1 percent year
មួយឆមន) មក្រតម ២៦៦០,៨ដុ
    នំ ុ                                          ្ល រ/េ       ន។ កនុងែខសី                   េ្របង         ំង     on year) to USD2660.8/tonne. In August, the price of
             ឹ
                                                                                                                  gasoline (US Gulf Coast) went up 12.2 percent (6.3
(US Gulf Coast) េឡងៃថ្ល ១២,២% (៦,៣% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) ដល់
                  ើ                      ឹ    នំ ុ                                                                percent year on year) to USD0.78/litre and of diesel
០,៧៨ដុ        ្ល រ/លី្រត េហយេ្របងមស៊ូត (Low sulphur No2) េឡងៃថ្ល
                           ើ      ៉                        ើ                                                      (low sulphur No. 2) by 9.1 percent (5.8 percent year on
                                                                                                                  year) to USD0.83/litre.
៩,១% (៥,៨% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) ដល់ ០,៨៣ដុ
                ឹ    នំ ុ                                                 ្ល រ/លី ្រត។




                                                                                                                        Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 3
4
3
5
0
1




D




    A




        A
                                                                                                                                                                                        Cambodia Economic Flash Report –September 2012
                                                                                          សកម្មភាពេសដ្ឋកចសខាន់ៗ និង ៃថ្លទនិញេនៅកម្ពុជា
                                                                                                        ិ ្ច ំ           ំ
                                           Main Economic Activities and Consumer Prices in Cambodia
                        Fixed Asset Investment Approvals by CDC                                                                                                                                                        Foreign Visitor Arrivals
                                         Industry                                                                                                                                                                        July 2011–July 2012
                                     2009 Q2–2012 Q2

                        2500
                                                                                                                                                                                                            400

                                                                                                                                                                                                            350       Other Business      Holiday

                        2000




                                                                                                                                                                       000 persons
                                                                                                                                                                                                            300                                                                                              12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             14
                        1500
                                                                                                                                                                                                            250
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   3
                                                                                                                                                                                                            200
              USD m




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 13
                        1000
                                                                                                                                                                                                            150
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            258
                                                                                                                                                                                                            100                  194
                        500

                                                                                                                                                                                                            50
                          0
                                                                                                                                                                                                             0
                                  09Q3

                                             09Q4

                                                      10Q1

                                                                      10Q2

                                                                                  10Q3

                                                                                          10Q4

                                                                                                     11Q1

                                                                                                            11Q2

                                                                                                                      11Q3

                                                                                                                               11Q4

                                                                                                                                         12Q1

                                                                                                                                                    12Q2




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Nov 11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jan 12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jul 11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jul 12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               May 12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Mar 12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Sep 11
            Including expansion projects.
            Source: Council for the Development of Cambodia
                                                                                                                                                                    Source: Ministry of Tourism

              Phnom Penh: Value of Construction Approvals                                                                                                                                                                    Consumer Price Index
                          July 2011–July 2012                                                                                                                                                                                (December 2006=100)
                        180
                                                               Other
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Dec 2010–June 2012
                        160                                    Flats
                                                               Villas & houses
                        140

                        120

                        100
                          USD m




                         80       12.5
                                                                                                                                                34.1
                         60

                         40       56.7
                                                                                                                                                29.4
                         20
                                  11.1                                                                                                          12.8
                          0
                                                                                                                                May 12
                                                                                                             Mar 12
                                                    Sep 11




                                                                                            Jan 12
                                  Jul 11




                                                                             Nov 11




                                                                                                                                                Jul 12




            Source: Municipality of Phnom Penh
                                                                                                                                                                    Source: National institute of statistics
                         Phnom Penh: Gasoline & Diesel Prices                                                                                                        Interest Rates on 12-Month Bank Deposits (%)
                               June 2011–August 2012                                                                                                                              June 2011–June 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                             7
                          5800

                          5600                                                                                                                                                                               6
                                                                                                                                                            5057




                          5400                                                                                                                                                                               5
                                                                                                                                                                                     Percentage Per Annum




                          5200                                                                                                                                                                               4
              Riels/ℓ




                                                                                                                                                            5341




                          5000                                                                                                                                                                               3
                          4800
                                                                                                                                                                                                             2
                          4600                                        Diesel                                                                                                                                 1                                        Riel deposit rate
                          4400                                        Gasoline                                                                                                                                                                        Dollar deposit rate
                                                                                                                                                                                                             0
                          4200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Feb 12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Aug 11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Apr 12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jun 11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jun 12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Dec 11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Oct 11
                                                                                                            Feb 12
                                                             Aug 11




                                                                                                                                                           Aug 12
                                                                                                                             Apr 12
                                           Jun 11




                                                                                                                                           Jun 12
                                                                                             Dec 11
                                                                                 Oct 11




            Source: CDRI                                                                                                                                            Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC




                                                                                                                                                                                            Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 4
Cambodia Economic Flash Report –September 2012
                                                                សានភាពអ្រតាប្តូរ្របាក់ និង ជំនួយអភិវឌ ន៍ពីេ្រកៅ្របេទស
                                                                                              Exchange Rates, Money and Credit
                                        Riels per US Dollar                                                                                                                                                 Riels per THB & VND
                                     June 2011–August 2012                                                                                                                                                 June 2011–August 2012
      4200                                                                                                                                                                        138                                                                                                                             26
                                                                                           Market rate

                                                                                                                                                                                  134                                                                                                                             25
      4150                                                                                 Official rate




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         128.7
                                          4094




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                128.7
                                                                                                                                            4069
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  24




                                                                                                                                                      4068
      4100                                                                                                                                                                        130
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  23




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           KHR per VND 100
                                                                                                                                                                   KHR per Baht
      4050                                                                                                                                                                        126
                                          4077

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Thai baht (left)                                                    22




                                                                                                                                             4052
                                                                                                                                             4052
      4000                                                                                                                                                                        122                                                         Vietnamese dong (right)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  21




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         19.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                19.5
      3950                                                                                                                                                                        118                                                                                                                             20

      3900                                                                                                                                                                        114                                                                                                                             19




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Feb 12
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Aug 11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Aug 12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Apr 12
                                                                                                                                                                                          Jun 11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jun 12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Dec 11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Oct 11
                                                                                                                Apr 12
                        Jun 11




                                                                                Dec 11




                                                                                                                                   Jun 12
                                                             Oct 11
                                           Aug 11




                                                                                                  Feb 12




                                                                                                                                                       Aug 12
Source: National Bank of Cambodia                                                                                                                               Source: National Bank of Cambodia
                                      Monetary Survey (%)                                                                                                                                                     Domestic Credit (%)
                                      June 2011–June 2012                                                                                                                                                     June 2011–June 2012
        100                                                                                                                                                                       120

              80                                                                                                                                                                  100
              60                                                                                                                                                                  80
              40
                                                                                                                                                                                  60
              20
                                                                                                                                                                                  40
              0
         -20                                                                                                                                                                      20

         -40                                                                                                                                                                       0
                                                                                                                          Apr 12
                     Jun 11




                                                                                                                                             Jun 12
                                                                                   Dec 11
                                                              Oct 11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Apr 12
                                                                                                                                                                                          Jun 11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jun 12
                                                                                                       Feb 12




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Dec 11
                                          Aug 11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Oct 11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Feb 12
                                                                                                                                                                                                              Aug 11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Annualised change in domestic credit
                                                             Annualised growth rate (M2)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Annualised change in private sector credit
                                                             Annualised growth rate (M1)                                                                                                                               Previous 12 months' growth in domestic credit
                                                             Growth over the previous 12 months (M2)
                                                                                                                                                                Source: National Bank of Cambodia
Source: National Bank of Cambodia
                                            Monetary Survey                                                                                                      External Development Assistance Disbursement
                                          April 2011–June 2012                                                                                                                    Agriculture
                    27000                                                                                                                                                         2001–2011
                    24000
                                                                                                                                                                                        160
                    21000
                    18000                                                                                                                                                               140
                    15000
                    12000                                                                                                                                                               120
     KHR bn




                     9000
                     6000                                                                                                                                                               100
                                                                                                                                                                 USD m




                     3000
                        0                                                                                                                                                                80
                    -3000
                                                                                                                                                                                         60
                    -6000
                    -9000                                                                                                                                                                40
                   -12000
                                                                                                                                                                                         20
                                                                                                                  Feb 12
                                                                       Aug 11
                                 Apr 11




                                                                                                                                   Apr 12
                                                    Jun 11




                                                                                                                                                      Jun 12
                                                                                                      Dec 11
                                                                                         Oct 11




                                                                                                                                                                                          0
                                                                                                                                                                                                   2001

                                                                                                                                                                                                               2002

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2003

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2004

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2005

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2006

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2007

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2008

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2009

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2010

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2011




                                     Liquidity                                   Net Foreign Assets                      Private Sector Credit

                                     Government Deposits                         Other



Source: National Bank of Cambodia                                                                                                                               Source: The Cambodia Development Effectiveness Report 2011, CDC




                                                                                                                                                                                    Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 5
Cambodia Economic Flash Report –September 2012
                                                                                          ពាណិជកម្មេ្រកៅ្របេទស និង ការអនុវត្តថវិកាជាតិ
                                                                                               ្ជ
                                                                       External Trade and National Budget Operations
                                                  Cambodian Imports                                                                                                                                           Cambodian Exports
                                                  April 2011–June 2012                                                                                                                                        April 2011–June 2012

                    30                                                                                                                                                     500                                          5.7                                                 Other textile products
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        5.3
                                              Steel                                                                                                                        450                                                                                              Shoes
                                                                                                                                                                                                            29.7
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Clothing (all kinds)                 27.9
                    25                        Cement
                                                                                                                                                                           400
                                              Construction equipment
                                                                                                                                                                           350
                    20
                                                                                                                                                     12.5                  300
  USD m




                                                                                                                                                                  USD m
                    15                                                                                                                                                     250
                                                                                                                                                                                                                436.0                                                                                    411.2
                                                    3.8                                                                                                                    200
                    10                                                                                                                                                     150
                                                                                                                                                     6.4
                                                    5.4
                                                                                                                                                                           100
                        5
                                                                                                                                                     5.5                      50
                                                    4.6
                        0                                                                                                                                                          0




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Feb 12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Aug 11
                                                                                                                                                                                        Apr 11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Apr 12
                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jun 11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jun 12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Dec 11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Oct 11
                                                                     Aug 11
                                Apr 11




                                                                                                                              Apr 12
                                                    Jun 11




                                                                                                                                                     Jun 12
                                                                                                    Dec 11
                                                                                      Oct 11




                                                                                                               Feb 12




Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC                                                                                                                      Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC
                                                   Imports: Energy                                                                                                                                 Current Budget Operations
                                                  April 2011–June 2012                                                                                                                               April 2011–June 2012
                60                                                                                                                                                                     500
                                                           Gasoline              Diesel         Fuel oil
                                                                                                                                                                                       400
                50

                                                                                                                                                                                       300
                40
                                                                                                                                                                                       200
                                                                                                                                                                          KHR bn
   USD m




                30
                                                                                                                                                                                       100
                20
                                                                                                                                                                                        0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     -2.332
                10                                                                                                                                                                   -100

                    0                                                                                                                                                                -200                        -166.29
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Apr 11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Apr 12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jun 11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jun 12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Dec 11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Oct 11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Feb 12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Aug 11
                            Apr 11




                                                                                                                                   Apr 12
                                                  Jun 11




                                                                                                                                                        Jun 12
                                                                                                    Dec 11
                                                                                      Oct 11




                                                                                                                 Feb 12
                                                                    Aug 11




Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC                                                                                                                      Source: MEF Bulletin
                                     Current Budget Revenue                                                                                                                                      Current Budget Expenditure
                                      April 2011–June 2012                                                                                                                                         April 2011–June 2012
                        800                                                      Non-tax
                                                                                                                                                                                       800
                                                                                 Import and export taxes                                                                               700
                        700
                                                                                 Domestic taxes                                                                                                                      136.1
                        600                                                                                                                 58                                         600

                        500                                55                                                                                                                          500                                                                                                             187.1
                                                                                                                                                                            KHR bn




                                                                                                                                            113                                        400
           KHR bn




                        400                                                                                                                                                                                          250.9
                                                                                                                                                                                       300                                                                                                           183.6
                        300                                95
                                                                                                                                                                                       200
                        200                                                                                                                                                                                          226.9
                                                           298                                                                              402                                        100                                                                                                           204.5
                        100                                                                                                                                                              0
                            0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Feb 12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Aug 11
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Apr 11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Apr 12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jun 11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jun 12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Dec 11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Oct 11
                                         Apr 11




                                                                                                                          Apr 12
                                                           Jun 11




                                                                                                                                            Jun 12
                                                                                                   Dec 11
                                                                                       Oct 11




                                                                                                             Feb 12
                                                                        Aug 11




                                                                                                                                                                                                 Other services                          Subsidies and social assistance                  Wages



Source: MEF Bulletin                                                                                                                                             Source: MEF Bulletin




                                                                                                                                                                                     Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 6
Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy Sep-12
Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy Sep-12
Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy Sep-12
Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy Sep-12
Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy Sep-12
Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy Sep-12

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Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy Sep-12

  • 1. ISSN 1810-6358 វិទ សានបណ្ដុះបណា្ដល និង ្រសាវ្រជាវេដើម ីអភិវឌ ន៍កម្ពុជា CDRI—Cambodia’s leading independent development policy research institute របាយការណ៍ថ្មីៗស្តីពីេសដ្ឋកិចកម្ពុជា ្ច Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy កញ ២០១២ / ញ September 2012 រតន វឌ ន / Roth Vathana ័ ប៉ុន ដូរ ី ¼ Pon Dorina បកែ្របេ យ៖ យូ សិទីរទធ និង េខង េសង ធ ិ ភនេពញ កមពុជ ំ Phnom Penh, Cambodia TO SUBSCRIBE, PLEASE CONTACT: Office address: #56, Street 315, Tuol Kork, Phnom Penh, Cambodia; postal address: CDRI, PO Box 622 Phnom Penh, Cambodia; tel: (855-23) 881-384/881-701/881-916/883-603 ; fax: (855-23) 880-734 ; email: pubs@cdri.org.kh; website: http://www.cdri.org.kh
  • 2. Cambodia Economic Flash Report –September 2012 ករបក្រ យ ងសំខន់ៗ Highlights របយករណេនះ បក្រ ៍ យពសូចនករេសដ្ឋកិចចមយចំនួនរបស់កមពុជ នង ី ួ ិ This report highlights a number of economic indicators of Cambodia and its partners. It compares recent figures ប ្ត ្របេទសជៃដគូពណជជកមម េ ិ យេធ្វករេ្រប បេធៀបតួេលខកនុងែខថមៗ ើ ី with those of earlier periods. េនះ ជមួយនងែខមុនៗ។ ឹ Fixed asset investments in industry approved by the កនុង្រតមសទី២ ី ឆ២០១២ នំ វនិេយគគតជ្រទពយសកមមជប់ ិ ិ ប់ខង Council for the Development of Cambodia in the second quarter of 2012 decreased by 16.7 percent from ឧស ហកមមអនុមតេ ័ យ CDC ធក់ចុះ ១៦,៧% មក្រតម ១៧៣,៧ ្ល ឹ ន a quarter earlier or 32.4 percent year on year, to ដុ ្ល រ េធៀបនង្រតមសមុន ឬធក់ចុះ ៣២,៤% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន។ ឹ ី ្ល ឹ នំ ុ USD173.7 m. កនុងែខកកក ចំននេភញ វបរេទសមកដល់សរុបេកន ១៣% េធៀបនងែខមុន ួ ើ ឹ In July, total foreign visitor arrivals increased by 13 percent from the preceding month (19.0 percent year on ឬេកន ១៩% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន។ េភញ វមកលំ ែហេកន ១៣,០% (១៥,០% ើ ឹ នំ ុ ើ year). Holiday arrivals rose by 13 percent (15 percent េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) មកេធ្វជំនួញេកន ១២,០% (១៧,០% េធៀបនងមួយឆ ំ ឹ នំ ុ ើ ើ ឹ ន year on year), business arrivals by 12 percent (17 មុន) នងមកកនុងបំណងេផ ងៗេកន ៣០% (៣៨១% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន)។ ិ ើ ឹ នំ ុ percent year on year) and “other” arrivals by 30 percent (381 percent year on year). េនែខកកក តៃម្លអនុមតគេ្រមង ិ ងសង់ភម្រគឹះនងផទះ េកន ៧៩៦,៥% ូ ិ ិ ើ In July, the value of construction approvals for villas (១៥,៥% េធៀបមួយឆមុន) ដល់ ១២,៨ នំ នដុ ្ល រ គេ្រមងេផ ងៗេកន ើ and houses rose by 796.5 percent (15.5 percent year on ៨០៧,២% (១៧៣,២% េធៀបនងមួយឆមុន) ដល់ ៣៤,១ ឹ នំ នដុ ្ល រ។ year) to USD12.8 m and of “others” by 807.2 percent (173.2 percent year on year) to USD34.1 m. The value តៃម្លអនុមតគេ្រមង ិ ងសង់ផះែល្វង ទ េកន ើ ៣០៣% េធៀបនងែខមុន ឹ of flat construction approvals rose 303 percent from a ប៉ែន្តធក់ចុះ ៤៨,១% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន មក្រតម ២៩,៤ ុ ្ល ឹ នំ ុ ឹ នដុ ្ល រ។ month earlier, but year on year decrease by 48.1 percent to USD29.4 m. េនែខមថុន សនទស ន៍ៃថ្លទនញេ្របើ្របស់ (្រគប់មខទំនញ) េកន ០,១% ិ ំ ិ ុ ិ ើ េធៀបនងែខមុន (១,៨% េធៀបនងែខដូចគឆមុន)។ ៃថ្លេសប ង ន នំ រ នង In June, the consumer price index (all items) went up ឹ ឹ ិ 0.1 percent from the preceding month (1.8 percent from េភសជជៈគនជត្រ ម ិ េកន ០,៩% (៣,២% េធៀបនងមួយឆមុន) សេម្ល ក ើ ឹ នំ the same period last year). Prices of food and non- បំពក់នងែសបកេជងេកន ០,៥% (៣,៨% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) នង ៃថ្ល ិ ើ ើ ឹ នំ ុ ិ alcoholic beverages rose by 0.9 percent (3.2 percent year on year), clothing and footwear by 0.5 percent (3.8 សមរៈបំពក់នងៃថ្លដំេណរករកនុងផទះេកន ភ ិ ើ ើ ០,៣% (៣,៦% េធៀបនង ឹ percent year on year) and household furnishings and មួយឆមន)។ កនុងែខដែដល ៃថ្ល នំ ុ ន ក់េន នងៃថ្លទកេភ្លងធក់ចុះ ០,៨% ិ ឹ ើ ្ល operations by 0.3 percent (3.6 percent year on year). In ប៉ែន្តេកន ០,៦% េធៀបនងមួយឆមុន។ ុ នំ the same month, housing and utilities prices dropped by ើ ឹ 0.8 percent, but increased 0.6 percent year on year. េនែខសី ៃថ្លេ្របង ំង េកន ៧,៦% េធៀបនងែខមុន (២,៩% េធៀប ើ ឹ In August, the price of gasoline increased by 7.6 នងមួយឆមុន) ដល់ ៥៣៤១េរៀល/លី្រត នងេ្របងមស៊ូត េកន ៦,៦% ឹ នំ ិ ៉ ើ percent from a month earlier (2.9 percent year on year) (៣,៩% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) ដល់ ៥០៥៧េរៀល/លី្រត។ ឹ នំ ុ to KHR5341/litre and of diesel by 6.6 percent (3.9 percent year on year) to KHR5057/litre. េនែខមថុន ិ អ្រ ករ្របក់េលើបេញញ ើ ជ្របក់េរៀលរយៈេពល១២ែខ គឺ In June, the interest rate on 12-month riel deposits was ៥,៨% (ធក់ចុះ ០,៣ ឯក ្ល ភគរយេធៀបនងែខមុន) េហយស្រមប់បេញញ ើ ជ ឹ ើ 5.8 percent (a 0.3 percentage point drop from a month ្របក់ដុ ្ល រ គឺ ៤,៤% (ធក់ចុះ ០,០៤ ឯក ្ល ភគរយ)។ earlier) and that of dollar deposits was 4.4 percent (a 0.04 percentage point decrease). េនែខសី ្របក់េរៀលេនទផ រេឡងៃថ្ល ី ើ ០,០២% េធៀបនងែខមុន ឹ In August, the market exchange rate of the riel (០,៦% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) ឹ នំ ុ ទល់នង្របក់ដុ ឹ ្ល រ ប៉ុែន្តេនេថរទល់នង ឹ appreciated 0.02 percent (0.6 percent year on year) ្របក់បតៃថ នង្របក់ដុងេវៀត ិ ម។ against the dollar. The riel exchange rate remained unchanged against the Thai baht and the Vietnamese េនែខមថុន ិ ករនំេចញសេម្ល កបំពក់ (្រគប់្របេភទ) េកន ើ ២៨,៤% dong. េធៀបនងែខមុន (១៨,៦% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) ដល់ ៤១១,២ ឹ ឹ នំ ុ នដុ ្ល រ Exports of clothing (all kinds) in June rose by 28.4 េហយករនំេចញែសបកេជង េកន ៦,៩% (២៣,៩% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) ើ ើ ើ ឹ នំ ុ percent from the previous month (18.6 percent year on ដល់ ២៧,៩ នដុ ្ល រ។ ករនំេចញផលិតផល យនភ័ណេផ ងេទៀតេកន ្ឌ ើ year) to USD411.2 m and shoes by 6.9 percent (23.9 percent year on year) to USD27.9 m. Exports of other ៣,៣% ដល់ ៥,៣ នដុ ្ល រ ប៉ែន្តធក់ចុះ ៣,៥% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន។ ុ ្ល ឹ នំ ុ textile products increased by 3.3 percent, but decreased កនុងែខដែដល ករនំចូលែដកែថបេកន ២,៣% (២២៦,០% េធៀបនង ើ ឹ by 3.5 percent year on year, to USD5.3 m. In the same មួយឆមន) ដល់ ១២,៥ នំ ុ នដុ ្ល រ េហើយករនំចូលសមរៈសំ ណង់ េកន ភ month, imports of steel went up 2.3 percent (226.0 ើ percent year on year) to USD12.5 m and construction ២២,១% (២០,៧% េធៀបនងមួយឆមុន) ដល់ ៥,៥ ឹ នំ នដុ ្ល រ រឯ ី equipment by 22.1 percent (20.7 percent year on year) ករនំចូលសុី មងត៍ ធក់ចុះ ៉ ់ ្ល ២៣,៤% ប៉ុែន្តេកន ើ ១៧,៤% េធៀបនង ឹ to USD5.5 m. Imports of cement went down 23.4 percent, but increased 17.4 percent year on year. មួយឆមន។ ករនំចូលេ្របង នំ ុ ំងេកើន ៧,៨% េធៀបនងែខមុន (១០,៩% ឹ Imports of gasoline rose by 7.8 percent from a month េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) ឹ នំ ុ េហយករនំចូលេ្របងមសូ តេខ ើ ៉ ម េកន ើ ៣,៦% earlier (10.9 percent year on year) and fuel oil by 3.6 (៦,៦% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) រឯករនំចូលេ្របងមសូ តធក់ចុះ ១៣,៦% នំ ុ ៉ ្ល percent (6.6 percent year on year). Imports of diesel oil ឹ ី dropped by 13.6 percent, but rose by 0.8 percent year មក្រតម ៣៩,៥ ឹ នដុ ្ល រ ប៉ែន្តេកន ០,៨% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន ។ ុ ើ ឹ នំ ុ Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 2
  • 3. Cambodia Economic Flash Report –September 2012 កនុងែខមថុន ចំណលចរន្តសរុបរបស់រ ្ឋ ភបល ធក់ចុះ ៧,៥% មក្រតម ិ ូ ិ ្ល ឹ on year, to USD39.5 m. ៥៧២,៨ពន់ នេរៀល េធៀបនងែខមុន ប៉ែន្តេកន ២៧,៩% េធៀបនងឆ ំ ឹ ុ ើ ឹ ន In June, total government current revenue went down មុន។ ចំណលបនពពនធនចូលនងនំេចញេកន ១០,៦% (១៩,២% េធៀប ូ ំ 7.5 percent from the preceding month but year on year ី ិ ើ increased by 27.9 percent, to KHR572.8 bn. Revenue នងឆមន)។ ចំណលពនធកុ នង្រសុក ធក់ចុះ ៧,៥% (េកន ៣៤,៨ េធៀបនង ឹ នំ ុ ូ ្ល ើ ឹ from import and export taxes rose by 10.6 percent (19.2 ឆមុន) េហយ ចំណលមនែមនពនធ ធក់ចុះ ៣០,១% (េកន ៦,២% េធៀប នំ ើ ូ ិ ្ល ើ percent year on year). Revenue from domestic taxes dropped by 7.5 percent (34.8 percent increase year on នងឆមន)។ កនុងែខដែដល ចំ ឹ នំ ុ យចរន្តសរុបរបស់រ ្ឋ ភបល េកន ៧,២% ិ ើ year) and from non-taxes by 30.1 percent (6.2 percent ដល់ ៥៧៥,២ពន់ នេរៀល ប៉ែន្តធក់ចុះ ុ ្ល ៦,៣% េធៀបនងឆមុន។ ឹ នំ rise year on year). In the same period, total current ចំ យេលើេបៀវត រ ៍ ធក់ចុះ ៣២,៥% (៩,៨% េធៀបនងឆមុន) មក្រតម ្ល expenditure increased by 7.2 percent but year on year ឹ នំ ឹ dropped by 6.3 percent to KHR575.2 bn. Expenditure ២០៤,៥ពន់ ី ភ ិ ំ ួ នេរៀល រឯឧបតថមធន នងជនយសងគមកចេកន ៩២,៧% ិ ច ើ on wages went down 32.5 percent (9.8 percent year on ដល់ ១៨៣,៦ពន់ នេរៀល ប៉ែន្តធក់ចុះ ២៦,៨% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន ។ ុ ្ល ឹ នំ ុ year) to KHR204.5 bn, while that on subsidies and social assistance rose by 92.7 percent, but year on year េនែខមថុន ិ អងករៃថ េឡងៃថ្ល ើ ១៤,២% េធៀបនងែខមុន ឹ (៣២,០% decreased by 26.8 percent to KHR183.6 bn. េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) ដល់ ៧៣៧,៩ដុ ឹ នំ ុ ្ល រ/េ ន។ េកស៊ូ ធក់ៃថ្ល ៦,១% ្ល The price of Thai rice in June increased by 14.2 percent (២៩,២% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) មក្រតម ៣១០៤,៩ដុ ឹ នំ ុ ឹ ្ល រ/េ ន រឯេម ី from a month earlier (32.0 percent year on year) to ំ ដឡូងេឈើ េឡងៃថ្ល ១២,២% ដល់ ៣៣៧,៥ដុ ្ល រ/េ ន ប៉ែន្តធក់ៃថ្ល ុ ្ល USD737.9/tonne. The price of rubber dropped by 6.1 ើ percent (29.2 percent year on year) to ១៣,០% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន។ ករនំេចញអងករេនៃថ ធក់ចុះ ៣៩,៦% ឹ នំ ុ ្ល USD3104.9/tonne. The price of tapioca went up 12.2 េធៀបនងែខមុន (៤៩,៣% េធៀបនងមួយឆមុន) មក្រតម ៣០៦,២ ឹ ឹ នំ ឹ ន percent but year on year dropped by 13.0 percent to USD337.5/tonne. Exports of Thai rice went down 39.6 ដុ ្ល រ េហយករនំេចញេកស៊ូធមមជតិ នងជ័រធមមជតិ ធក់ចុះ ៩,៤% ើ ិ ្ល percent from the preceding month (49.3 percent year on (៣១,៥% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) ឹ នំ ុ មក្រតម ឹ ៦៥៣,២ នដុ ្ល រ។ year) to USD306.2 m and natural rubber and similar ំ ករនំេចញេម ដឡូងេឈើ ធក់ចុះ ៣៧,៤% មក្រតម ១២១,៣ ្ល ឹ នដុ ្ល រ natural gums by 9.4 percent (31.5 percent drop year on year) to USD653.2 m. Exports of tapioca decreased by ប៉ែន្តេកន ២៧,៨% េធៀបនងមួយឆមុន ។ ុ ើ ឹ នំ 37.4 percent, but year on year rose by 27.8 percent to េនែខមថុន អងករេនេវៀត ម ធក់ៃថ្ល ២,៧% េធៀបនងែខមុន (៩,១% ្ល USD121.3 m. ិ ឹ េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) មក្រតម ៤៣៦,៧ដុ ឹ នំ ុ ឹ ្ល រ/េ ន េហយេកស៊ូធក់ៃថ្ល ើ ្ល In June, rice prices in Vietnam decreased by 2.7 percent from the preceding month (9.1 percent year on year) to ៩,៥% (៣៤,៩% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) មក្រតម ២៨៣៣,៣ដុ ឹ នំ ុ ឹ ្ល រ/េ ន USD436.7/tonne and rubber by 9.5 percent (34.9 រឯ្រគប់ ី ្វ យចនទី េឡងៃថ្ល ៣,៤% ដល់ ៧០០០ដុ ើ ្ល រ/េ ន ប៉ែន្តធក់ៃថ្ល ុ ្ល percent year on year) to USD2833.3/tonne. The price of ១៧,៣% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន។ នំ ុ កនុងែខដែដល ករនំេចញអងករ េកន cashew nuts rose by 3.4 percent but year on year ឹ ើ dropped by 17.3 percent to USD7000/tonne. In the ១៥,៧% (១៩,៣% េធៀបនងមួយែខមុន) ដល់ ៣៨៣ ឹ នដុ ្ល រ េហយ ើ same period, exports of rice went up 15.7 percent (19.3 ្រគប់ ្វ យច័នទី េកន ើ ៣,៤% (២១,២% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) ឹ នំ ុ ដល់ percent year on year) to USD383 m and cashew nuts by 3.4 percent (21.2 percent year on year) to USD154 m. ១៥៤ នដុ ្ល រ រឯករនំេចញេកស៊ូ ី ធក់ចុះ ២៧,៦% (៣០,៣% ្ល Exports of rubber dropped by 27.6 percent (30.3 percent េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) មក្រតម ១៧០ ឹ នំ ុ ឹ នដុ ្ល រ។ year on year) to USD170 m. េនែខកកក ករនំេចញរបស់សហរដ្ឋ េមរក ធក់ចុះ ១,៤% មក្រតម ិ ្ល ឹ In July, US exports declined by 1.4 percent from a ១៣០,៨ពន់ នដុ ្ល រ េធៀបនងែខមុន ប៉ែន្តេកន ៣,១% េធៀបនងមួយ ុ month earlier, but year on year increased by 3.1 percent ឹ ើ ឹ to USD130.8 bn. Exports of the euro zone dropped 5.6 ឆមុន។ ករនំេចញេនតំបន់អរូ ៉ ធក់ចុះ ៥,៦% (៥,១% េធៀបនងមួយ នំ ឺ ្ល ឹ percent (5.1 percent year on year) to USD191 bn and of ឆមុន) មក្រតម ១៩១ពន់ នំ ឹ នដុ ្ល រ េហយករនំេចញរបស់ជប៉នធក់ចុះ ើ ុ ្ល Japan by 6.1 percent (7.1 percent year on year) to USD66.8 bn. ៦,១% (៧,១ េធៀបនឹងមួយឆមន) មក្រតម ៦៦,៨ពន់ នំ ុ ឹ នេរៀល។ In August, the price of USA 2/4 rice rose 2.3 percent េនែខសី អងករ USA 2/4 េឡងៃថ្ល ២,៣% ដល់ ៥៨៥ដុ ើ ្ល រ/េ ន from the preceding month, but year on year dropped by េធៀបនងែខមុន ប៉ែន្តធក់ៃថ្ល ៥,៥% េធៀបនងឆមុន។ អងករ Thai 100% B ឹ ុ ្ល ឹ នំ 5.5 percent, to USD585/tonne. Thai 100% B rice increased by 2.9 percent (3.3 percent year on year) to េឡងៃថ្ល ២,៩% (៣,៣% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) ដល់ ៦០១ដុ ើ ឹ នំ ុ ្ល រ/េ ន។ USD601/tonne. In the same month, the price of កនុងែខដែដល សែណកេសៀង (US No.1) េឡងៃថ្ល ១,១% (២៨,១% ្ត ើ soybeans (US No. 1) rose 1.1 percent (28.1 percent year េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) ដល់ ៦៥៦,៦ដុ ឹ នំ ុ ្ល រ/េ ន នង េពត (US No.2) ិ on year) to USD656.6/tonne and maize (US No. 2) by 1.2 percent (7.9 percent year on year) to េឡងៃថ្ល ១,២% (៧,៩% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) ដល់ ៣៣១,២ដុ ើ ឹ នំ ុ ្ល រ/េ ន។ USD331.2/tonne. The price of rubber (SMR 5) dropped េកស៊ូ (SMR 5) ធក់ៃថ្ល ៩,៧% េធៀបនងែខមុន (៤៣,១% េធៀបនង ្ល ឹ ឹ by 9.7 percent from a month earlier (43.1 percent year មួយឆមន) មក្រតម ២៦៦០,៨ដុ នំ ុ ្ល រ/េ ន។ កនុងែខសី េ្របង ំង on year) to USD2660.8/tonne. In August, the price of ឹ gasoline (US Gulf Coast) went up 12.2 percent (6.3 (US Gulf Coast) េឡងៃថ្ល ១២,២% (៦,៣% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) ដល់ ើ ឹ នំ ុ percent year on year) to USD0.78/litre and of diesel ០,៧៨ដុ ្ល រ/លី្រត េហយេ្របងមស៊ូត (Low sulphur No2) េឡងៃថ្ល ើ ៉ ើ (low sulphur No. 2) by 9.1 percent (5.8 percent year on year) to USD0.83/litre. ៩,១% (៥,៨% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) ដល់ ០,៨៣ដុ ឹ នំ ុ ្ល រ/លី ្រត។ Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 3
  • 4. 4 3 5 0 1 D A A Cambodia Economic Flash Report –September 2012 សកម្មភាពេសដ្ឋកចសខាន់ៗ និង ៃថ្លទនិញេនៅកម្ពុជា ិ ្ច ំ ំ Main Economic Activities and Consumer Prices in Cambodia Fixed Asset Investment Approvals by CDC Foreign Visitor Arrivals Industry July 2011–July 2012 2009 Q2–2012 Q2 2500 400 350 Other Business Holiday 2000 000 persons 300 12 14 1500 250 3 200 USD m 13 1000 150 258 100 194 500 50 0 0 09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 Nov 11 Jan 12 Jul 11 Jul 12 May 12 Mar 12 Sep 11 Including expansion projects. Source: Council for the Development of Cambodia Source: Ministry of Tourism Phnom Penh: Value of Construction Approvals Consumer Price Index July 2011–July 2012 (December 2006=100) 180 Other Dec 2010–June 2012 160 Flats Villas & houses 140 120 100 USD m 80 12.5 34.1 60 40 56.7 29.4 20 11.1 12.8 0 May 12 Mar 12 Sep 11 Jan 12 Jul 11 Nov 11 Jul 12 Source: Municipality of Phnom Penh Source: National institute of statistics Phnom Penh: Gasoline & Diesel Prices Interest Rates on 12-Month Bank Deposits (%) June 2011–August 2012 June 2011–June 2012 7 5800 5600 6 5057 5400 5 Percentage Per Annum 5200 4 Riels/ℓ 5341 5000 3 4800 2 4600 Diesel 1 Riel deposit rate 4400 Gasoline Dollar deposit rate 0 4200 Feb 12 Aug 11 Apr 12 Jun 11 Jun 12 Dec 11 Oct 11 Feb 12 Aug 11 Aug 12 Apr 12 Jun 11 Jun 12 Dec 11 Oct 11 Source: CDRI Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 4
  • 5. Cambodia Economic Flash Report –September 2012 សានភាពអ្រតាប្តូរ្របាក់ និង ជំនួយអភិវឌ ន៍ពីេ្រកៅ្របេទស Exchange Rates, Money and Credit Riels per US Dollar Riels per THB & VND June 2011–August 2012 June 2011–August 2012 4200 138 26 Market rate 134 25 4150 Official rate 128.7 4094 128.7 4069 24 4068 4100 130 23 KHR per VND 100 KHR per Baht 4050 126 4077 Thai baht (left) 22 4052 4052 4000 122 Vietnamese dong (right) 21 19.5 19.5 3950 118 20 3900 114 19 Feb 12 Aug 11 Aug 12 Apr 12 Jun 11 Jun 12 Dec 11 Oct 11 Apr 12 Jun 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Oct 11 Aug 11 Feb 12 Aug 12 Source: National Bank of Cambodia Source: National Bank of Cambodia Monetary Survey (%) Domestic Credit (%) June 2011–June 2012 June 2011–June 2012 100 120 80 100 60 80 40 60 20 40 0 -20 20 -40 0 Apr 12 Jun 11 Jun 12 Dec 11 Oct 11 Apr 12 Jun 11 Jun 12 Feb 12 Dec 11 Aug 11 Oct 11 Feb 12 Aug 11 Annualised change in domestic credit Annualised growth rate (M2) Annualised change in private sector credit Annualised growth rate (M1) Previous 12 months' growth in domestic credit Growth over the previous 12 months (M2) Source: National Bank of Cambodia Source: National Bank of Cambodia Monetary Survey External Development Assistance Disbursement April 2011–June 2012 Agriculture 27000 2001–2011 24000 160 21000 18000 140 15000 12000 120 KHR bn 9000 6000 100 USD m 3000 0 80 -3000 60 -6000 -9000 40 -12000 20 Feb 12 Aug 11 Apr 11 Apr 12 Jun 11 Jun 12 Dec 11 Oct 11 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Liquidity Net Foreign Assets Private Sector Credit Government Deposits Other Source: National Bank of Cambodia Source: The Cambodia Development Effectiveness Report 2011, CDC Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 5
  • 6. Cambodia Economic Flash Report –September 2012 ពាណិជកម្មេ្រកៅ្របេទស និង ការអនុវត្តថវិកាជាតិ ្ជ External Trade and National Budget Operations Cambodian Imports Cambodian Exports April 2011–June 2012 April 2011–June 2012 30 500 5.7 Other textile products 5.3 Steel 450 Shoes 29.7 Clothing (all kinds) 27.9 25 Cement 400 Construction equipment 350 20 12.5 300 USD m USD m 15 250 436.0 411.2 3.8 200 10 150 6.4 5.4 100 5 5.5 50 4.6 0 0 Feb 12 Aug 11 Apr 11 Apr 12 Jun 11 Jun 12 Dec 11 Oct 11 Aug 11 Apr 11 Apr 12 Jun 11 Jun 12 Dec 11 Oct 11 Feb 12 Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC Imports: Energy Current Budget Operations April 2011–June 2012 April 2011–June 2012 60 500 Gasoline Diesel Fuel oil 400 50 300 40 200 KHR bn USD m 30 100 20 0 -2.332 10 -100 0 -200 -166.29 Apr 11 Apr 12 Jun 11 Jun 12 Dec 11 Oct 11 Feb 12 Aug 11 Apr 11 Apr 12 Jun 11 Jun 12 Dec 11 Oct 11 Feb 12 Aug 11 Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC Source: MEF Bulletin Current Budget Revenue Current Budget Expenditure April 2011–June 2012 April 2011–June 2012 800 Non-tax 800 Import and export taxes 700 700 Domestic taxes 136.1 600 58 600 500 55 500 187.1 KHR bn 113 400 KHR bn 400 250.9 300 183.6 300 95 200 200 226.9 298 402 100 204.5 100 0 0 Feb 12 Aug 11 Apr 11 Apr 12 Jun 11 Jun 12 Dec 11 Oct 11 Apr 11 Apr 12 Jun 11 Jun 12 Dec 11 Oct 11 Feb 12 Aug 11 Other services Subsidies and social assistance Wages Source: MEF Bulletin Source: MEF Bulletin Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 6