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FINDING UBER:
AN INSIDE LOOK AT
EARLY STAGE INVESTING
AGENDA
• History
• Early Stage Asset Class
• 3 Early Stage Companies
• Wine
SEEDCHANGE®CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL 3 333
THE FUNDING CYCLE
SEEDCHANGE®CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL 4 444
Average
Size of
Funding
Round
(millions)
0"
1"
2"
3"
4"
5"
6"
7"
8"
9"
1990s" 2000s" 2010s"
FFF"
Angel"
VC"
FUNDING TRENDS
“Investing in stocks, bonds, commodities — even
alternatives — is efficient, transparent and cheap.
Early stage investing is the last closed,
inefficient asset category left.”
—Tony Kelly, Head of US Capital Markets, Goldman Sachs
SEEDCHANGE®CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL 5
Early Stage
Assets
Performance
Early stage investments
demonstrate excellent
long term return
characteristics
Diversification
Early stage investments
are diversifying and
additive to most portfolios:
assets have low levels of
correlation to
each other and
to other
asset classes
7
EARLY STAGE INVESTING OFFERS
UNIQUE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES
SEEDCHANGE®CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL
THE UBER EFFECT
9
RETURNS OUTSTRIP OTHER ASSET CLASSES
OVER NEARLY EVERY PERIOD
SEEDCHANGE®CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL
Sources: Cambridge Associates, Bloomberg
10
ALLOCATION TO EARLY STAGE ASSETS
LOWERS THE RISK PROFILE OF MOST PORTFOLIO
SEEDCHANGE®CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL
“Over any significant time period, research shows that a
portfolio including early stage companies outperforms a
traditional portfolio in terms of both risk and return.
An allocation towards startups decreases the
standard deviation of returns and more
specifically, downside deviation.”
Over the past 10 years, a qualitatively similar
allocation of 49% stocks, 51% startups
multiplied returns by almost 5x
with no change in underlying risk.”
—Report of Illinois Business Consulting, University of Illinois (2015)
TEAM STRATEGYPRODUCT MARKET STRUCTURE
‣ Skill set, passion,
competence
‣ Experience:
domain, startup,
management
‣ Long term vision
‣ Backgrounds
and education
‣ Advisor strength
and involvement
‣ Customer value
proposition
‣ Development
stage
‣ User experience
‣ Investor value
proposition
‣ Product
roadmap
‣ Market depth
and scale
‣ Competition and
differentiation
‣ Barriers to entry
‣ Customer
growth,
retention,
momentum
‣ Revenue model
and cash flow
evaluation
‣ Revenue
momentum
metrics
‣ Legal and IP
evaluation
‣ Supplier / client
agreements
‣ Marketing / goal
alignment
‣ Human,
technical and
capital resources
‣ Funding
deployment
efficiency
11
SEEDCHANGE ANALYSIS PROCESS:
QUANTIFIABLE, NOT QUANTITATIVE
SEEDCHANGE®CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL
Finding Uber - An Inside Look at Early Stage Investing

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Finding Uber - An Inside Look at Early Stage Investing

  • 1. FINDING UBER: AN INSIDE LOOK AT EARLY STAGE INVESTING
  • 2. AGENDA • History • Early Stage Asset Class • 3 Early Stage Companies • Wine
  • 4. SEEDCHANGE®CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL 4 444 Average Size of Funding Round (millions) 0" 1" 2" 3" 4" 5" 6" 7" 8" 9" 1990s" 2000s" 2010s" FFF" Angel" VC" FUNDING TRENDS
  • 5. “Investing in stocks, bonds, commodities — even alternatives — is efficient, transparent and cheap. Early stage investing is the last closed, inefficient asset category left.” —Tony Kelly, Head of US Capital Markets, Goldman Sachs SEEDCHANGE®CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL 5
  • 6.
  • 7. Early Stage Assets Performance Early stage investments demonstrate excellent long term return characteristics Diversification Early stage investments are diversifying and additive to most portfolios: assets have low levels of correlation to each other and to other asset classes 7 EARLY STAGE INVESTING OFFERS UNIQUE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES SEEDCHANGE®CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL
  • 9. 9 RETURNS OUTSTRIP OTHER ASSET CLASSES OVER NEARLY EVERY PERIOD SEEDCHANGE®CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL Sources: Cambridge Associates, Bloomberg
  • 10. 10 ALLOCATION TO EARLY STAGE ASSETS LOWERS THE RISK PROFILE OF MOST PORTFOLIO SEEDCHANGE®CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL “Over any significant time period, research shows that a portfolio including early stage companies outperforms a traditional portfolio in terms of both risk and return. An allocation towards startups decreases the standard deviation of returns and more specifically, downside deviation.” Over the past 10 years, a qualitatively similar allocation of 49% stocks, 51% startups multiplied returns by almost 5x with no change in underlying risk.” —Report of Illinois Business Consulting, University of Illinois (2015)
  • 11. TEAM STRATEGYPRODUCT MARKET STRUCTURE ‣ Skill set, passion, competence ‣ Experience: domain, startup, management ‣ Long term vision ‣ Backgrounds and education ‣ Advisor strength and involvement ‣ Customer value proposition ‣ Development stage ‣ User experience ‣ Investor value proposition ‣ Product roadmap ‣ Market depth and scale ‣ Competition and differentiation ‣ Barriers to entry ‣ Customer growth, retention, momentum ‣ Revenue model and cash flow evaluation ‣ Revenue momentum metrics ‣ Legal and IP evaluation ‣ Supplier / client agreements ‣ Marketing / goal alignment ‣ Human, technical and capital resources ‣ Funding deployment efficiency 11 SEEDCHANGE ANALYSIS PROCESS: QUANTIFIABLE, NOT QUANTITATIVE SEEDCHANGE®CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL