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Financial Crisis And India
Scheme of Presentation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Scheme of Presentation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Global Financial Crisis (1) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Global Financial Crisis (2) Current Account Balance (per cent to GDP) Country 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005 2006 2007 2008 China 1.4 1.9 2.4 7.2 9.5 11.0 10.0 India -1.3 -1.3 0.5 -1.3 -1.1 -1.0 -2.8 Russia 0.9 3.5 11.2 11.0 9.5 5.9 6.1 Saudi Arabia -11.7 -2.4 10.6 28.7 27.9 25.1 28.9 United Arab Emirates 8.3 4.6 9.9 18.0 22.6 16.1 15.8 United States -1.0 -2.1 -4.5 -5.9 -6.0 -5.3 -4.7 Memo: Euro area n.a. 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 -0.7 Middle East -5.1 1.0 8.4 19.7 21.0 18.2 18.8 Source: World Economic Outlook Database, April 2009, International Monetary Fund. Note: (-) indicates deficit.
Global Financial Crisis (4) US Monetary Policy (1) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Global Financial Crisis (5) US Monetary Policy (2) ,[object Object]
Global Financial Crisis (6) US Monetary Policy (3) ,[object Object]
Global Financial Crisis (3) Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies ,[object Object]
Global Financial Crisis (7)  Worsening  Global Economic Outlook Growth Forecast of IMF (per cent) Region April 2008 July 2008 October 2008 April 2009   2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 Advanced countries 1.3 1.3 1.7 1.4 1.5 0.5 0.9 (-)3.8 EMEs 6.7 6.6 6.9 6.7 6.9 6.1 6.1 1.6 World 3.7 3.8 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.0 3.2 (-)1.3 Global Trade Volume (Goods and Services) World 3.7 3.8 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.0 3.3 -11.0
Scheme of Presentation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Impact on India (1) Trends in Capital Flows  Component Period 2007-08    2008-09 Foreign Direct Investment  to India April-February 27.6 31.7 FIIs (net) April-March 20.3 -15.0 External Commercial Borrowings (net)  April- December  17.5 6.0 Short-term Trade Credits (net) April- December  10.7 0.5 Total capital flows (net) April- December  82.0 15.3 Memo : Current Account Balance April- December -15.5 -36.5 Valuation Gains (+)/Losses (-) on Foreign Exchange Reserves April- December 9.0 -33.4 Foreign Exchange Reserves (variation) April-December 76.1 -53.8 April-March 110.5   -57.7
Impact on India (2) Key Macro Indicators Indicator Period 2007-08 2008-09 Growth, per cent Real GDP Growth  April-December 9.0 6.9 Industrial production April-February 8.8 2.8 Services April-December 10.5 9.7 Exports April-March 28.4 6.4 Imports April-March 40.2 17.9 GFD/GDP April-March 2.7 6.0 Stock Market  (BSE Sensex) April-March 16,569 12,366 Rs.per US$ April-March 40.24 45.92
Scheme of Presentation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Differences Between Financial Crisis in US/Europe and India  (1) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Differences Between Financial Crisis in US/Europe and India  (2) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Differences Between Financial Crisis in US/Europe and India  (3) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Rs. crore 2008-09 BE 2008-09 RE 2009-10 BE Gross 1,76,453 3,42,769 3,98,552 Net 1,13,000 3,29,649 3,08,647
Differences Between Financial Crisis in US/Europe and India  (4) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Differences Between Financial Crisis in US/Europe and India  (5)  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Scheme of Presentation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Measures since Mid-September, 2008 (1) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Measures since Mid-September, 2008 (2) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Measures since Mid-September, 2008 (3) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Measures since Mid-September, 2008 (4) Impact of Measures (1) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Measures since Mid-September, 2008 (5) Impact of Measures (2) Item March 2008 September 2008 October 2008 March 2009 Turnover  (Rupees crore, average daily) 1 Call market 11,182 11,690 14,497 11,909 2 All money markets @ 63,395 42,891 40,906 81,821 Key Interest Rates (per cent) 3 Call market 7.37 10.52 9.90 4.17 4 All money markets @ 6.55 9.26 8.66 3.76 5 BSE Sensex 15946 13943 10550 8995 6 Rs. Per US $ 40.36 45.56 48.64 51.23 7 10-year G-sec yield 7.69 8.45 7.85 6.56 8 Certificate of Deposits 10.0 11.6 10.0 7.0 9 Commercial Paper 10.4 12.3 14.7 8.9 10 Deposit rate (1-3 yrs)# 8.25-9.25 8.75-10.25 8.75-10.25 8.00-9.25 11 BPLR# 12.25-13.50 13.75-14.75 13.75-14.75 11.50-14.00 @: Call money, CBLO and market repo;  #: Data pertain to PSBs.
Measures since Mid-September, 2008 (6) Total Resource Flow from Banks and Non-banks Rupees crore Item 2007-08 2008-09 1 Non-food Bank credit 4,44,807 4,14,902 2 Non-banks 3,35,698 2,64,138 3 Total flow of resources (1+2) 7,80,505 6,79,040
Measures since Mid-September, 2008 (7) Inflation in India (per cent) Item March 2008 June 2008 September 2008  December 2008 March 2009 Wholesale price inflation All commodities 7.8 12.0 12.1 5.9 0.3 Of which: Primary articles 9.7 11.0 12.0 11.6 3.5 Fuel 6.8 16.3 16.5 -0.7 -6.1 Manufactured products 7.3 10.9 10.5 6.2 1.4 Consumer price inflation Agricultural labourers 7.9 8.8 11.0 11.4 10.8 (Feb) Rural labourers 7.6 8.7 11.0 11.4 10.8 (Feb) Urban non-manual employees 6.0 7.3 9.5 9.8 9.9 (Feb) Industrial workers 7.9 7.7 9.8 9.7 9.6 (Feb)
Scheme of Presentation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Lessons from the Crisis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Scheme of Presentation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Medium-term Issues and Challenges (1) Macroeconomic Indicators at a Glance ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],(Per cent) 1950-51  to  1964-65 1965-66 to  1980-81 1980s 1990-91 1991/92  to  1996-97 1997/98  to  2002/03 2003/04 To 2007/08 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1. Real GDP Growth 4.1 3.2 5.6 5.3 5.7 5.2 8.7 Agriculture 2.9 2.1 4.4 4.0 3.7 0.9 4.4 Industry 6.7 4.2 6.4 5.7 7.0 4.1 8.4 Manufacturing 6.6 3.9 5.8 4.8 7.5 3.9 9.1 Services 4.9 4.2 6.3 5.9 6.4 7.8 10.3 2. Real GDCF/GDP  13.5 19.2 20.2 24.4 22.5 24.1 31.4 3. ICOR 3.3 6.0 3.6 4.6 4.0 4.6 3.6 4. Nominal GDCF/GDP 11.8 16.7 20.8 26.0 23.9 24.5 33.0 5. GDS/GDP 10.3 15.9 19.0 22.8 22.7 24.1 32.7 6. Saving-Investment Gap -1.5 -0.7 -1.8 -3.2 -1.2 -0.4 -0.3
Medium-term Issues and Challenges (2) Fiscal Policy (1) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Medium-term Issues and Challenges (3) Fiscal Policy (2) ,[object Object],[object Object]
Medium-term Issues and Challenges (4) Monetary Policy (1) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Medium-term Issues and Challenges (5) Monetary Policy (2) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Medium-term Issues and Challenges (6) External Sector (1) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Medium-term Issues and Challenges (7) External Sector (2) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Medium-term Issues and Challenges (8) Financial Sector ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],  Without Stress Scenario - increase in NPA by: 100 per cent 150 per cent   CRAR (%) CRAR (%) CRAR (%) Mar-08 13.0 11.6 11.0 Sept–08 12.5 11.1 10.6
Medium-term Issues and Challenges (9) Conclusion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object]

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Financial crisis and india ppt @ bec doms bagalkot

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  • 5. Global Financial Crisis (2) Current Account Balance (per cent to GDP) Country 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005 2006 2007 2008 China 1.4 1.9 2.4 7.2 9.5 11.0 10.0 India -1.3 -1.3 0.5 -1.3 -1.1 -1.0 -2.8 Russia 0.9 3.5 11.2 11.0 9.5 5.9 6.1 Saudi Arabia -11.7 -2.4 10.6 28.7 27.9 25.1 28.9 United Arab Emirates 8.3 4.6 9.9 18.0 22.6 16.1 15.8 United States -1.0 -2.1 -4.5 -5.9 -6.0 -5.3 -4.7 Memo: Euro area n.a. 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 -0.7 Middle East -5.1 1.0 8.4 19.7 21.0 18.2 18.8 Source: World Economic Outlook Database, April 2009, International Monetary Fund. Note: (-) indicates deficit.
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  • 10. Global Financial Crisis (7) Worsening Global Economic Outlook Growth Forecast of IMF (per cent) Region April 2008 July 2008 October 2008 April 2009   2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 Advanced countries 1.3 1.3 1.7 1.4 1.5 0.5 0.9 (-)3.8 EMEs 6.7 6.6 6.9 6.7 6.9 6.1 6.1 1.6 World 3.7 3.8 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.0 3.2 (-)1.3 Global Trade Volume (Goods and Services) World 3.7 3.8 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.0 3.3 -11.0
  • 11.
  • 12. Impact on India (1) Trends in Capital Flows Component Period 2007-08   2008-09 Foreign Direct Investment to India April-February 27.6 31.7 FIIs (net) April-March 20.3 -15.0 External Commercial Borrowings (net) April- December 17.5 6.0 Short-term Trade Credits (net) April- December 10.7 0.5 Total capital flows (net) April- December 82.0 15.3 Memo : Current Account Balance April- December -15.5 -36.5 Valuation Gains (+)/Losses (-) on Foreign Exchange Reserves April- December 9.0 -33.4 Foreign Exchange Reserves (variation) April-December 76.1 -53.8 April-March 110.5   -57.7
  • 13. Impact on India (2) Key Macro Indicators Indicator Period 2007-08 2008-09 Growth, per cent Real GDP Growth April-December 9.0 6.9 Industrial production April-February 8.8 2.8 Services April-December 10.5 9.7 Exports April-March 28.4 6.4 Imports April-March 40.2 17.9 GFD/GDP April-March 2.7 6.0 Stock Market (BSE Sensex) April-March 16,569 12,366 Rs.per US$ April-March 40.24 45.92
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  • 25. Measures since Mid-September, 2008 (5) Impact of Measures (2) Item March 2008 September 2008 October 2008 March 2009 Turnover (Rupees crore, average daily) 1 Call market 11,182 11,690 14,497 11,909 2 All money markets @ 63,395 42,891 40,906 81,821 Key Interest Rates (per cent) 3 Call market 7.37 10.52 9.90 4.17 4 All money markets @ 6.55 9.26 8.66 3.76 5 BSE Sensex 15946 13943 10550 8995 6 Rs. Per US $ 40.36 45.56 48.64 51.23 7 10-year G-sec yield 7.69 8.45 7.85 6.56 8 Certificate of Deposits 10.0 11.6 10.0 7.0 9 Commercial Paper 10.4 12.3 14.7 8.9 10 Deposit rate (1-3 yrs)# 8.25-9.25 8.75-10.25 8.75-10.25 8.00-9.25 11 BPLR# 12.25-13.50 13.75-14.75 13.75-14.75 11.50-14.00 @: Call money, CBLO and market repo; #: Data pertain to PSBs.
  • 26. Measures since Mid-September, 2008 (6) Total Resource Flow from Banks and Non-banks Rupees crore Item 2007-08 2008-09 1 Non-food Bank credit 4,44,807 4,14,902 2 Non-banks 3,35,698 2,64,138 3 Total flow of resources (1+2) 7,80,505 6,79,040
  • 27. Measures since Mid-September, 2008 (7) Inflation in India (per cent) Item March 2008 June 2008 September 2008 December 2008 March 2009 Wholesale price inflation All commodities 7.8 12.0 12.1 5.9 0.3 Of which: Primary articles 9.7 11.0 12.0 11.6 3.5 Fuel 6.8 16.3 16.5 -0.7 -6.1 Manufactured products 7.3 10.9 10.5 6.2 1.4 Consumer price inflation Agricultural labourers 7.9 8.8 11.0 11.4 10.8 (Feb) Rural labourers 7.6 8.7 11.0 11.4 10.8 (Feb) Urban non-manual employees 6.0 7.3 9.5 9.8 9.9 (Feb) Industrial workers 7.9 7.7 9.8 9.7 9.6 (Feb)
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Editor's Notes

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