Basketball Analytics Case Competition. Team created AVM metric in order to measure/project player performance. While ranking players based on surplus value created.

1. Who is Worth a Max
Contract?
Columbia University Sports Management
November 10, 2016
Josh Carroll, Ang (Enzo) Li, Jeremy Masem,
Rob Moras, CJ Pettway and Samantha Trella

2. Maximum allowable contract for players
Evaluation and classification of players
Actual Value Metric (AVM)
Projection of player performance
Surplus value rankings
Final player rankings
Introduction
What is a Max
Contract?
Evaluating
Players
Projecting
Performance
Max Contract
Players Ranked
Conclusion

3. WHAT IS A MAX CONTRACT?
Introduction
What is a Max
Contract?
Evaluating
Players
Projecting Player
Performance
Max Contract
Players Ranked
Conclusion
Years in NBA Defined Max Salary ‘15-16 ‘16-17
0-6 25% of cap 16,407,500 22,116,750
7-9 30% of cap 19,689,000 26,540,100
10+ 35% of cap 22,970,500 30,960,450
 4 year deals based on % of cap and
service, 4.5% raises each season
 Salary no lower than 105% of previous
season
 16-17 salary cap = $94.1M
 Rose Rule
a) 2x All Star Starter b) 2x All-NBA
c) MVP

4. EVALUATING PLAYERS
Data and Methodology:
WS, VORP, PER, BPM, PTS highly correlated
(Franks, D’Amour, Cervone, Bornn 2016)
PER: Player Efficiency Rating
Win Share: Value on Team Level
Classification: K-means Clustering
Introduction
What is a Max
Contract?
Evaluating
Players
Projecting
Performance
Max Contract
Players Ranked
Conclusion

5. EVALUATING PLAYERS
Introduction
What is a Max
Contract?
Evaluating
Players
Projecting Player
Performance
Max Contract
Players Ranked
Conclusion

6. EVALUATING PLAYERS
Introduction
What is a Max
Contract?
Evaluating
Players
Projecting Player
Performance
Max Contract
Players Ranked
Conclusion

7. EVALUATING PLAYERS
Introduction
What is a Max
Contract?
Evaluating
Players
Projecting Player
Performance
Max Contract
Players Ranked
Conclusion

8. EVALUATING PLAYERS
Introduction
What is a Max
Contract?
Evaluating
Players
Projecting Player
Performance
Max Contract
Players Ranked
Conclusion

9. EVALUATING PLAYERS
Introduction
What is a Max
Contract?
Evaluating
Players
Projecting Player
Performance
Max Contract
Players Ranked
Conclusion

10. EVALUATING PLAYERS
Introduction
What is a Max
Contract?
Evaluating
Players
Projecting Player
Performance
Max Contract
Players Ranked
Conclusion
Actual Value Metric (AVM)
 Adjust Win Share based on team
performance and PER
 Regress Win Share on PER for each team,
compare slope to league average
 Assumption: Star/leader of average team

11. EVALUATING PLAYERS
Introduction
What is a Max
Contract?
Evaluating
Players
Projecting Player
Performance
Max Contract
Players Ranked
Conclusion
Player Pos Age Team AVM
C. Paul PG 30 LAC 12.95
S. Curry PG 27 GSW 12.68
A. Davis PF 22 NOP 12.66
H. Whiteside C 26 MIA 12.22
K. Durant SF 27 OKC 12.12
L. James SF 31 CLE 11.96
2015-2016 AVM Rankings

12. PROJECTING PLAYER PERFORMANCE
Introduction
What is a Max
Contract?
Evaluating
Players
Projecting Player
Performance
Max Contract
Players Ranked
Conclusion
Data and Methodology:
Based on historical data from 2005-2016
Peak at age 27
Time Series Model (ARMA): Projects PER
Projected PER factored in AVM
PERs = (0.7)*PERs-1 + (0.3)*PERs-2 + Avg. Improv.

13. PROJECTING PLAYER PERFORMANCE
Introduction
What is a Max
Contract?
Evaluating
Players
Projecting Player
Performance
Max Contract
Players Ranked
Conclusion

14. MAX CONTRACT PLAYERS RANKED
(15-11)
Introduction
What is a Max
Contract?
Evaluating
Players
Projecting Player
Performance
Max Contract
Players Ranked
Conclusion
15. Klay Thompson
SV: $2,800,216.44
14. DeMarcus Cousins
SV: $6,313,816.44
13. Gordon Hayward
SV: $6,700,916.44
12. Kemba Walker
SV: $6,934,716.44
11. Kevin Durant
SV: $7,722,493.22

15. MAX CONTRACT PLAYERS RANKED
10. RUDY GOBERT
Introduction
What is a Max
Contract?
Evaluating
Players
Projecting Player
Performance
Max Contract
Players Ranked
Conclusion
Max Contract: 4 year, $94.6M
Year 1:
$22.1M
Year 2:
$23.1M
Year 3:
$24.2M
Year 4:
$25.2M
Actual Max Contract: 4 year, $107.3M
Year 1:
$22.5M
Year 2:
$25.9M
Year 3:
$28.7M
Year 4:
$30.1M
Surplus
Year 1:
413K
Year 2:
$2.8M
Year 3:
$4.6M
Year 4:
$4.9M
Total: $12,766,916.44
22.1 23.1 24.2 25.2
22.5
25.9
28.7 30.1
0
20
40
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
Max vs. Actual Max
Max Actual Max

16. MAX CONTRACT PLAYERS RANKED
9. RUSSELL WESTBROOK
Introduction
What is a Max
Contract?
Evaluating
Players
Projecting Player
Performance
Max Contract
Players Ranked
Conclusion
Max Contract: 4 year, $113.5M
Year 1:
$26.5M
Year 2:
$27.7M
Year 3:
$28.9M
Year 4:
$30.2M
Actual Max Contract: 4 year, $132.1M
Year 1:
$32.4M
Year 2:
$34.1M
Year 3:
$33.8M
Year 4:
$31.7M
Surplus
Year 1:
$5.8M
Year 2:
$6.4M
Year 3:
$4.8M
Year 4:
$1.46M
Total: $18, 579, 579.92
26.5 27.7 28.9 30.2
32.4
34.1 33.8
31.7
0
20
40
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
Max vs. Actual Max
Max Actual Max

17. MAX CONTRACT PLAYERS RANKED
8. DRAYMOND GREEN
Introduction
What is a Max
Contract?
Evaluating
Players
Projecting Player
Performance
Max Contract
Players Ranked
Conclusion
Max Contract: 4 year, $94.6M
Year 1:
$22.1M
Year 2:
$23.1M
Year 3:
$24.2M
Year 4:
$25.2M
Actual Max Contract: 4 year, $116M
Year 1:
$28.1M
Year 2:
$30.3M
Year 3:
$29.2M
Year 4:
$28.4M
Surplus
Year 1:
$6.03M
Year 2:
$7.2M
Year 3:
$5M
Year 4:
$3.2M
Total: $21, 371,116.44
22.1 23.1 24.2 25.2
28.1
30.3 29.2 28.4
0
20
40
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
Max vs. Actual Max
Max Actual Max

18. MAX CONTRACT PLAYERS RANKED
7. NIKOLA JOKIC
Introduction
What is a Max
Contract?
Evaluating
Players
Projecting Player
Performance
Max Contract
Players Ranked
Conclusion
Max Contract: 4 year, $94.6M
Year 1:
$22.1M
Year 2:
$23.1M
Year 3:
$24.2M
Year 4:
$25.2M
Actual Max Contract: 4 year, $123.9M
Year 1:
$22.2M
Year 2:
$23.9M
Year 3:
$37M
Year 4:
$40.6M
Surplus
Year 1:
$123K
Year 2:
$847K
Year 3:
$12.8M
Year 4:
$15.4M
Total: $29,269,716.44
22.1 23.1 24.2 25.2
22.2 23.9
37
40.6
0
20
40
60
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
Max vs. Actual Max
Max Actual Max

19. MAX CONTRACT PLAYERS RANKED
6. JAMES HARDEN
Introduction
What is a Max
Contract?
Evaluating
Players
Projecting Player
Performance
Max Contract
Players Ranked
Conclusion
Max Contract: 4 year, $113.5M
Year 1:
$26.5M
Year 2:
$27.7M
Year 3:
$28.9M
Year 4:
$30.2M
Actual Max Contract: 4 year, $147.3M
Year 1:
$41.1M
Year 2:
$36.3M
Year 3:
$36.4M
Year 4:
$33.4M
Surplus
Year 1:
$14.5M
Year 2:
$8.6M
Year 3:
$7.4M
Year 4:
$3.2M
Total: $33,817,092.79
26.5 27.7 28.9 30.2
41.1
36.3 36.4
33.4
0
20
40
60
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
Max vs. Actual Max
Max Actual Max

20. MAX CONTRACT PLAYERS RANKED
5. KARL-ANTHONY TOWNS
Introduction
What is a Max
Contract?
Evaluating
Players
Projecting Player
Performance
Max Contract
Players Ranked
Conclusion
Max Contract: 4 year, $94.6M
Year 1:
$22.1M
Year 2:
$23.1M
Year 3:
$24.2M
Year 4:
$25.2M
Actual Max Contract: 4 year, $138.1M
Year 1:
$27.4M
Year 2:
$26.3M
Year 3:
$40.6M
Year 4:
$43.9M
Surplus
Year 1:
$5.3M
Year 2:
$3.2M
Year 3:
$16.4M
Year 4:
$18.7M
Total: $43,579,116.44
22.1 23.1 24.2 25.2
27.4 26.3
40.6
43.9
0
20
40
60
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
Max vs. Actual Max
Max Actual Max

21. MAX CONTRACT PLAYERS RANKED
4. ANDRE DRUMMOND
Introduction
What is a Max
Contract?
Evaluating
Players
Projecting Player
Performance
Max Contract
Players Ranked
Conclusion
Max Contract: 4 year, $94.6M
Year 1:
$22.1M
Year 2:
$23.1M
Year 3:
$24.2M
Year 4:
$25.2M
Actual Max Contract: 4 year, $ $138.4M
Year 1:
$28M
Year 2:
$34.9M
Year 3:
$34.2M
Year 4:
$41.3M
Surplus
Year 1:
$5.9M
Year 2:
$11.8M
Year 3:
$10.1M
Year 4:
$16.1M
Total: $43,864,516.44
22.1 23.1 24.2 25.2
28
34.9 34.2
41.3
0
20
40
60
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
Max vs. Actual Max
Max Actual Max

22. MAX CONTRACT PLAYERS RANKED
3. STEPHEN CURRY
Introduction
What is a Max
Contract?
Evaluating
Players
Projecting Player
Performance
Max Contract
Players Ranked
Conclusion
Max Contract: 4 year, $113.5M
Year 1:
$26.5M
Year 2:
$27.7M
Year 3:
$28.9M
Year 4:
$30.2M
Actual Max Contract: 4 year, $167.9M
Year 1:
$40M
Year 2:
$43.1M
Year 3:
$42.6M
Year 4:
$42.2M
Surplus
Year 1:
$13.5M
Year 2:
$15.4M
Year 3:
$13.6M
Year 4:
$11.9M
Total: $54,356,879.72
26.5 27.7 28.9 30.2
40
43.1 42.6 42.2
0
20
40
60
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
Max vs. Actual Max
Max Actual Max

23. MAX CONTRACT PLAYERS RANKED
2. KAWHI LEONARD
Introduction
What is a Max
Contract?
Evaluating
Players
Projecting Player
Performance
Max Contract
Players Ranked
Conclusion
Max Contract: 4 year, $94.6M
Year 1:
$22.1M
Year 2:
$23.1M
Year 3:
$24.2M
Year 4:
$25.2M
Actual Max Contract: 4 year, $155M
Year 1:
$34.3M
Year 2:
$37.3M
Year 3:
$44M
Year 4:
$39.4M
Surplus
Year 1:
$12.2M
Year 2:
$14.2M
Year 3:
$19.8M
Year 4:
$14.2M
Total: $60,423,416.44
22.1 23.1 24.2 25.2
34.3
37.3
44
39.4
0
20
40
60
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
Max vs. Actual Max
Max Actual Max

24. MAX CONTRACT PLAYERS RANKED
1. ANTHONY DAVIS
Introduction
What is a Max
Contract?
Evaluating
Players
Projecting Player
Performance
Max Contract
Players Ranked
Conclusion
Max Contract: 4 year, $94.6M
Year 1:
$22.1M
Year 2:
$23.1M
Year 3:
$24.2M
Year 4:
$25.2M
Actual Max Contract: 4 year, 156.6M
Year 1:
$35M
Year 2:
$36.9M
Year 3:
$41.9M
Year 4:
$42.6M
Surplus
Year 1:
$12.9M
Year 2:
$13.8M
Year 3:
$17.7M
Year 4:
$17.4M
Total: $61,995,716.44
22.1 23.1 24.2 25.2
35 36.9
41.9 42.6
0
20
40
60
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
Max vs. Actual Max
Max Actual Max

25. EXPANSION TEAM DRAFT
RANKINGS
Introduction
What is a Max
Contract?
Evaluating
Players
Projecting Player
Performance
Max Contract
Players Ranked
Conclusion

26. OUR FINAL RANKINGS
5. KEVIN DURANT
Introduction
What is a Max
Contract?
Evaluating
Players
Projecting Player
Performance
Max Contract
Players Ranked
Conclusion
Career Averages
TS%:
60.5
AST%:
17.9%
TOV%
: 12.5
WS:
11.9
PER:
25
Accolades
7x All-star, 6x All-NBA, 2013-14 NBA MVP, 2007-
08 Rookie of the Year, 2011-12 All-Star Game
MVP, 4x Scoring Champion, 2x Gold Medalist, 50-
40-90 Club

27. OUR FINAL RANKINGS
4. KARL-ANTHONY TOWNS
Introduction
What is a Max
Contract?
Evaluating
Players
Projecting Player
Performance
Max Contract
Players Ranked
Conclusion
Career Averages
TS%:
59
AST%:
11.3
TOV%
: 12.6
WS:
8.3
PER:
22.5
Accolades
2015-16 Rookie of the Year

28. OUR FINAL RANKINGS
3. STEPH CURRY
Introduction
What is a Max
Contract?
Evaluating
Players
Projecting Player
Performance
Max Contract
Players Ranked
Conclusion
Career Averages
TS%:
61.1
AST%:
32.6%
TOV%
: 12.5
WS:
10.2
PER:
23.1
Accolades
3x All-star, 3x All-NBA, 2x NBA MVP, 2014-15 NBA
Champion, 2015-16 Scoring Champion, 50-40-90
Club

29. OUR FINAL RANKINGS
2. KAWHI LEONARD
Introduction
What is a Max
Contract?
Evaluating
Players
Projecting Player
Performance
Max Contract
Players Ranked
Conclusion
Career Averages
TS%:
59
AST%:
10.4
TOV%
: 9.2
WS:
8.3
PER:
20.1
Accolades
2x Defensive Player of the Year, 1x All-star, 3x All-
Defensive, 2015-16 All-NBA, 2013-14 NBA
Champion, 2013-14 Finals MVP

30. OUR FINAL RANKINGS
1. ANTHONY DAVIS
Introduction
What is a Max
Contract?
Evaluating
Players
Projecting Player
Performance
Max Contract
Players Ranked
Conclusion
Career Averages
TS%:
57.2
AST%:
8.9
TOV%
: 8.3
WS:
9.4
PER:
26
Accolades
3x All-star, 2014-15 All-Defensive, 2014-15 All
NBA, 1x Gold Medalist

31. Introduction
What is a Max
Contract?
Evaluating
Players
Projecting Player
Performance
Max Contract
Players Ranked
Conclusion
CONCLUSION