Downloaded 10 times
Uploaded byInstitute of Scrap Recycling Industries
Economic and Ferrous Metal Market Trends
The document discusses the economic indicators affecting the ferrous metal market, highlighting growth in GDP and sectors like private investment and exports, contrasted with declines in government spending. It provides data on U.S. ferrous scrap exports and significant macroeconomic trends, such as steel consumption and international trade dynamics. The outlook suggests attention on steel import competition and economic growth forecasts for key markets including Turkey and developing Asia.
More Related Content
![[Steel][rio tinto][www.ita.doc.gov:media:notes2.pdf][arcelor mittal]](https://cdn.slidesharecdn.com/ss_thumbnails/steelriotintowww-ita-doc-govmedianotes2-pdfarcelormittal-130304073943-phpapp01-thumbnail.jpg?width=640&height=640&fit=bounds)
Similar to Economic and Ferrous Metal Market Trends
Economic and Ferrous Metal Market Trends
- 1. Economic and FerrousMetal Market Trends Ferrous Division Executive Committee ISRI 2013 Fall Committee and Board Meetings San Francisco, CA October 22, 2013
- 2. Macro Indicators:Gross DomesticProduct Fastest Growing Sectors in Q2 2013: Gross Private Domestic Investment (+9.2%) Exports (+8%) Sharpest Contraction: Nondefense Government Spending (-3.1%)
- 3.
- 4.
- 5.
- 6. China Continues toDrive Global Steel Output Higher
- 7. U.S. CONSUMPTION OFPURCHASED AND HOME IRON AND STEEL SCRAP (thousand metric tons) Item Carbon Steel: Low-phosphorous plate and punchings Cut plate and structural No. 1 HMS No. 2 HMS No.1 and electric furnace bundles No. 2 and all other bundles Railroad rails Turnings and borings Slag scrap Shredded and frag No. 1 Busheling Steel cans (post consumer) All other carbon steel scrap Stainless steel scrap Alloy steel scrap Ingot mold and stool scrap Other iron scrap Other mixed scrap Total Jan-Jul 2012 406 2,810 3,410 3,520 1,930 581 180 1,490 917 9,500 2,690 66 2,620 768 421 75 715 798 33,100 Jan-July % 2013 CHG 430 2,410 3,100 3,440 1,990 710 194 1,460 679 7,910 2,800 73 2,460 766 409 50 491 877 30,500 6% -14% -9% -2% 3% 22% 8% -2% -26% -17% 4% 11% -6% 0% -3% -33% -31% 10% -8%
- 8. Year-to-Date 2013 U.S.Ferrous Scrap Exports by Major Destination (ex-stainless and alloy steel scrap, metric tons and % change) JUL ‘13 JUN ‘13 MAY ‘13 Turkey 373,984 333,248 Taiwan 194,326 Korea Country JAN-JUL '12 3,915,138 % CHG 699,537 JAN-JUL '13 3,098,842 252,121 249,638 1,655,279 1,982,756 -17% 54,333 193,503 108,436 1,059,234 1,824,057 -42% China 139,909 48,595 197,492 951,392 1,122,562 -15% Egypt 0 80,992 115,762 567,441 332,335 71% Canada 68,961 55,924 69,269 491,010 644,926 -24% Malaysia 1,199 78,672 291,972 461,720 437,230 6% Vietnam 8,809 87,987 35,033 371,790 263,734 41% Indonesia 32,195 21,581 86,691 366,505 186,203 97% India 27,897 53,990 63,188 365,044 675,423 -46% Mexico 92,954 12,745 20,929 335,386 430,236 -22% Others 122,667 81,071 110,835 695,857 651,809 7% TOTAL 1,117,234 1,300,429 2,048,782 10,419,500 12,466,409 -16% Sources: U.S. Census Bureau/U.S. International Trade Commission -21%
- 9. Outlook • With thefirming of domestic sheet prices and rising Chinese net steel exports, market participants will be keeping an eye on steel import competition in the fourth quarter. • In the U.S., the construction and transportation sectors continue to exhibit signs of strength and U.S. real GDP growth accelerated to 2.5% in 2Q 2013. • In the near term, cutbacks in U.S. government spending, on-going budget and debt ceiling showdowns, the implementation of new regulations, and the timing of potential shifts in U.S. monetary policy are likely to have important implications for investment, growth and the US Dollar while adding to uncertainty. • Among the key overseas markets in the medium term, the International Monetary Fund expects GDP growth in Turkey will increase 3.4% in 2013 and rise 3.7% in 2014, while “developing Asia” is expected to grow 7.1% this year and 7.3% in 2014.
- 10. Outlook cont. Country Turkey Taiwan Korea China Canada India Mexico Egypt Vietnam Indonesia U.S. Exportsof Ferrous Scrap (ex-stainless and alloy steel scrap) metric tons 2012 6,397,832 3,508,919 2,822,174 1,944,162 1,152,384 1,220,903 789,906 371,543 528,252 520,008 IMF Forecast of GDP Growth (%) 2013 3.8 2.2 2.8 7.6 1.6 3.8 1.2 1.8 5.3 5.3 2014 3.5 3.8 3.7 7.3 2.2 5.1 3.0 2.8 5.4 5.5 2015 4.3 3.9 4.0 7.0 2.4 6.3 3.5 4.0 5.4 6.0 Sources: International Monetary Fund, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. International Trade Commission
Editor's Notes
- #7 Areport from Goldman Sachs indicates that steel market fundamentals are not attractive in the near to medium term given the “unbalanced supply/demand conditions that prevail globally and in the US,” although the bank makes the case that conditions could improve in the longer term, forecasting that U.S. steel mill shipments will improve 4.3% in 2014 as apparent steel demand is expected to rise 2.9% next year and 2.8% in 2015.