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Federal Budget 101: Making sense of the numbers on aid
             CCIC presentation to PE-Hub webinar, April 24, 2012
Overview of presentation
•What is ODA?
•What is IAE?
•International assistance, IAE and ODA
compared
•Federal Budget 2012
•CCIC analysis
•Institutional impacts
•Geographic programs
What is official development
                        assistance?
“Flows of official financing administered
with the promotion of the economic
development and welfare of developing
countries as the main objective, and which
are concessional in character with a grant
element of at least 25 percent.”
•Bilateral or multilateral
                                       OECD
What is official development
           assistance? (Take two)
ODA is international assistance
(a) identical to the OECD definition, but that also
“meets the requirements set out in section 4; or
(b) that is provided for the purpose of alleviating
the effects of a natural or artificial disaster or
other emergency occurring outside Canada” (but
is not required to meet the three criteria).
                 ODA Accountability Act, 2008
What is official development
           assistance? (Take two)
Article Four relates to the three criteria of
the ODA Accountability Act:
  (a) contributes to poverty reduction;
  (b) takes into account the perspectives of the
  poor; and
  (c) is consistent with international human rights
  standards.


                ODA Accountability Act, 2008
What is the international
            assistance envelope?
•Much of Canada’s ODA falls within an IAE
•IAE contains budgetary allocations by the
federal government for int’l cooperation.
  •CIDA (63%), Finance (15%), DFAIT (8%),
  IDRC (3%), Other (15%) etc.
•Traditionally five components
•BUT, not all IAE is ODA
•Not all ODA is in the IAE
•Some of the ODAAA is not ODA
Int’l Assistance, IAE and ODA




              ODA Statistical Report 2009-10
So what isn’t ODA in the IAE?
•DFAIT
  •Global Partnership Program ($117.55 mn)
  •Counter Terrorism Capacity Building Program
  ($20.91mn)
  •Anti-Crime Capacity Building Program
  ($13.6mn)
  •Afghanistan Counter-Narcotics Program
  ($12.2mn)
•Specific to the ODA Accountability Act:
  •Provincial refugee costs and transfers
Federal Budget 2012
                       2012–13           2013–14           2014–15           Ongoing

International                    180.7             242.1             377.6             377.6
Assistance Envelope
(IAE)
Canadian                         152.7             191.6             319.2             319.2
International
Development Agency
Foreign Affairs and               15.5              28.8              29.1              29.1
International Trade
Canada (IAE only)
International                      6.2              15.3               23                23
Development
Research Centre
Royal Canadian                     1.3               1.3               1.3               1.3
Mounted Police (IAE
only)
Natural Resources                   5                 5                 5                 5
Canada (IAE only)
Note: Totals may not
add due to rounding.
CCIC analysis of Budget 2012
•FY 2011/12  FY2014/15, IAE will decline
by 7.6% (CIDA’s cut, about 4.3%)
•Between FY2011/2012 and FY2015/16, Cdn
IAE will have been cut by about $1.2 bn
•Cf. CIDA analysis
•Cf. 8 % continued increase to $7.7 billion
CCIC analysis of Budget 2012
  Fiscal Year    FY2010/11   FY2011/12   FY2012/13   FY2013/14   FY2014/15   FY2015/16
International
   Assistance
                  $5,100.7      $5,000    $4,819.3    $4,757.9    $4,622.4    $4,622.4
     Envelope
         (IAE)
           IAE
  Percentage
       decline        N/A         N/A        3.6%        4.8%        7.6%        7.6%
   relative to
   FY2011/12
    Estimated
                  $5,511.4    $5,767.4    $5,174.3    $5,112.9    $4,977.4    $4,977.4
  ODA ($mn)
          ODA
  Percentage
       decline        N/A         N/A       10.5%       11.6%       14.0%       14.0%
   relative to
   FY2011/12
     ODA as a
  percentage        0.34%       0.34%       0.29%       0.28%       0.26%       0.25%
        of GNI
Institutional Impacts
Agency              Share of IAE in    Percentage share   Departmental cut Departmental         Total dollar cuts
                    2010/11 (Total     of the IAE (FY     as a percentage cuts by 2014/15       per Department
                    $4925.73) in       2009/2010)         of the total cuts as a percentage     (for FY2012/13 to
                    millions                              (FY2012/13)       of current budget   14/15)
Canadian                     $3,583.53       72.8%              84.5%              8.9%           $663.5 million
International
Development
Agency
Department of                $303.25        6.2%                8.6%              9.6%            $73.4 million
Foreign Affairs
and International
Trade
Finance Canada               $810.20       16.4%                  0                 0                  $0

International                $170.88        3.5%                3.4%             13.2%            $44.5 million
Development
Research Centre
Institutional Impacts
•CIDA will get disproportionately hit (relative
to its share of the IAE).
•IDRC cuts are proportional to their IAE
share, but hit their actual budget the hardest
•The cuts to DFAIT are in proportion to their
share of the IAE and the size of their budget.
•Finance Canada (which provided $384
million to the World Bank in 2010-11) is
untouched by the cuts in the IAE.
CIDA- Geographic programs
Countries of Focus       Human Development Index (2011) Position relative to 187 other Cut from funding
                                                        HDI countries
1. Bolivia                                          108 Lower-middle                   Reductions
Colombia                                               87 Upper-middle
Peru                                                   80 Upper-middle
2. Pakistan                                           145 Bottom quarter              Reductions
Ukraine                                                76 Upper-middle
3. Ethiopia                                           174 Bottom quarter              Reductions
4. Mozambique                                         184 Bottom quarter              Reductions
5. Tanzania                                           152 Bottom quarter              Reductions


Non-Countries of Focus   Human Development Index                                      Cut from funding

6. Cambodia                                           139 Lower-middle                Completely cut – previously downgraded by
                                                                                      the Conservatives
7. China                                              101 Lower-middle                Completely cut
8. Malawi                                             171 Bottom quarter              Completely cut
9. Nepal                                              157 Bottom quarter              Completely cut
10. Niger                                             186 Bottom quarter              Completely cut – previously downgraded by
                                                                                      the Conservatives
11. Rwanda                                            166 Bottom quarter              Completely cut – previously downgraded by
                                                                                      the Conservatives
12. Zambia                                            164 Bottom quarter              Completely cut – previously downgraded by
                                                                                      the Conservatives
13. Zimbabwe                                          173 Bottom quarter              Completely cut
Budget specifics for CIDA
•Three of CIDA’s countries of focus
(Colombia, Peru and Ukraine) unaffected
•Ten of the 13 countries affected lie in the
bottom quarter of the HDI ranking.
•Decision-making criteria for cuts
•Colombia and Peru, as well as Indonesia,
Vietnam and Bangladesh have become
important trading partners – all unaffected
•Africa takes the biggest hit – 8 of 13
www.ccic.ca

                 ccic-ccci.blogspot.com
 No of hte
        THANK YOU!!



     Fraser Reilly-King
   Policy Analyst (Aid)
+1 613 241-7007, ext. 306
    freillyking@ccic.ca

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Federal Budget 101 Webinar: Making sense of the numbers on Aid

  • 1. Federal Budget 101: Making sense of the numbers on aid CCIC presentation to PE-Hub webinar, April 24, 2012
  • 2. Overview of presentation •What is ODA? •What is IAE? •International assistance, IAE and ODA compared •Federal Budget 2012 •CCIC analysis •Institutional impacts •Geographic programs
  • 3. What is official development assistance? “Flows of official financing administered with the promotion of the economic development and welfare of developing countries as the main objective, and which are concessional in character with a grant element of at least 25 percent.” •Bilateral or multilateral OECD
  • 4. What is official development assistance? (Take two) ODA is international assistance (a) identical to the OECD definition, but that also “meets the requirements set out in section 4; or (b) that is provided for the purpose of alleviating the effects of a natural or artificial disaster or other emergency occurring outside Canada” (but is not required to meet the three criteria). ODA Accountability Act, 2008
  • 5. What is official development assistance? (Take two) Article Four relates to the three criteria of the ODA Accountability Act: (a) contributes to poverty reduction; (b) takes into account the perspectives of the poor; and (c) is consistent with international human rights standards. ODA Accountability Act, 2008
  • 6. What is the international assistance envelope? •Much of Canada’s ODA falls within an IAE •IAE contains budgetary allocations by the federal government for int’l cooperation. •CIDA (63%), Finance (15%), DFAIT (8%), IDRC (3%), Other (15%) etc. •Traditionally five components •BUT, not all IAE is ODA •Not all ODA is in the IAE •Some of the ODAAA is not ODA
  • 7. Int’l Assistance, IAE and ODA ODA Statistical Report 2009-10
  • 8. So what isn’t ODA in the IAE? •DFAIT •Global Partnership Program ($117.55 mn) •Counter Terrorism Capacity Building Program ($20.91mn) •Anti-Crime Capacity Building Program ($13.6mn) •Afghanistan Counter-Narcotics Program ($12.2mn) •Specific to the ODA Accountability Act: •Provincial refugee costs and transfers
  • 9. Federal Budget 2012 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 Ongoing International 180.7 242.1 377.6 377.6 Assistance Envelope (IAE) Canadian 152.7 191.6 319.2 319.2 International Development Agency Foreign Affairs and 15.5 28.8 29.1 29.1 International Trade Canada (IAE only) International 6.2 15.3 23 23 Development Research Centre Royal Canadian 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Mounted Police (IAE only) Natural Resources 5 5 5 5 Canada (IAE only) Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.
  • 10. CCIC analysis of Budget 2012 •FY 2011/12  FY2014/15, IAE will decline by 7.6% (CIDA’s cut, about 4.3%) •Between FY2011/2012 and FY2015/16, Cdn IAE will have been cut by about $1.2 bn •Cf. CIDA analysis •Cf. 8 % continued increase to $7.7 billion
  • 11. CCIC analysis of Budget 2012 Fiscal Year FY2010/11 FY2011/12 FY2012/13 FY2013/14 FY2014/15 FY2015/16 International Assistance $5,100.7 $5,000 $4,819.3 $4,757.9 $4,622.4 $4,622.4 Envelope (IAE) IAE Percentage decline N/A N/A 3.6% 4.8% 7.6% 7.6% relative to FY2011/12 Estimated $5,511.4 $5,767.4 $5,174.3 $5,112.9 $4,977.4 $4,977.4 ODA ($mn) ODA Percentage decline N/A N/A 10.5% 11.6% 14.0% 14.0% relative to FY2011/12 ODA as a percentage 0.34% 0.34% 0.29% 0.28% 0.26% 0.25% of GNI
  • 12. Institutional Impacts Agency Share of IAE in Percentage share Departmental cut Departmental Total dollar cuts 2010/11 (Total of the IAE (FY as a percentage cuts by 2014/15 per Department $4925.73) in 2009/2010) of the total cuts as a percentage (for FY2012/13 to millions (FY2012/13) of current budget 14/15) Canadian $3,583.53 72.8% 84.5% 8.9% $663.5 million International Development Agency Department of $303.25 6.2% 8.6% 9.6% $73.4 million Foreign Affairs and International Trade Finance Canada $810.20 16.4% 0 0 $0 International $170.88 3.5% 3.4% 13.2% $44.5 million Development Research Centre
  • 13. Institutional Impacts •CIDA will get disproportionately hit (relative to its share of the IAE). •IDRC cuts are proportional to their IAE share, but hit their actual budget the hardest •The cuts to DFAIT are in proportion to their share of the IAE and the size of their budget. •Finance Canada (which provided $384 million to the World Bank in 2010-11) is untouched by the cuts in the IAE.
  • 14. CIDA- Geographic programs Countries of Focus Human Development Index (2011) Position relative to 187 other Cut from funding HDI countries 1. Bolivia 108 Lower-middle Reductions Colombia 87 Upper-middle Peru 80 Upper-middle 2. Pakistan 145 Bottom quarter Reductions Ukraine 76 Upper-middle 3. Ethiopia 174 Bottom quarter Reductions 4. Mozambique 184 Bottom quarter Reductions 5. Tanzania 152 Bottom quarter Reductions Non-Countries of Focus Human Development Index Cut from funding 6. Cambodia 139 Lower-middle Completely cut – previously downgraded by the Conservatives 7. China 101 Lower-middle Completely cut 8. Malawi 171 Bottom quarter Completely cut 9. Nepal 157 Bottom quarter Completely cut 10. Niger 186 Bottom quarter Completely cut – previously downgraded by the Conservatives 11. Rwanda 166 Bottom quarter Completely cut – previously downgraded by the Conservatives 12. Zambia 164 Bottom quarter Completely cut – previously downgraded by the Conservatives 13. Zimbabwe 173 Bottom quarter Completely cut
  • 15. Budget specifics for CIDA •Three of CIDA’s countries of focus (Colombia, Peru and Ukraine) unaffected •Ten of the 13 countries affected lie in the bottom quarter of the HDI ranking. •Decision-making criteria for cuts •Colombia and Peru, as well as Indonesia, Vietnam and Bangladesh have become important trading partners – all unaffected •Africa takes the biggest hit – 8 of 13
  • 16. www.ccic.ca ccic-ccci.blogspot.com No of hte THANK YOU!! Fraser Reilly-King Policy Analyst (Aid) +1 613 241-7007, ext. 306 freillyking@ccic.ca