SlideShare a Scribd company logo
To the designers in the room…
This presentation will
Be UGLY!
—@peignoir / Franck Nouyrigat
But Tailored!
And interactive
(If the gods of internet are with us!)
Our $970M Success story!
Shannon number
10
81
10
123 7 billion people
really complex game!Atoms in the known universe
Welcome to the
Entrepreneurial Game!
DISCLAIMER/SURVIROSHIP BIAS:
I DON’T KNOW HOW TO BUILD SUCCESSFUL STARTUPS
WITHOUT HUGE UNFAIR ADVANTAGES
(NO ONE KNOWS!)
THE RIGHT PEOPLE + $
NO REGULATION AT THE EARLY STAGE IMPLIES INSIDER TRADING
ADVANTAGES
UNFAIR ADVANTAGE =
THEREFORE
IF YOU GET TO CHOSE A SUPER
POWER FOR INVESTMENT AND
ENTREPRENEURSHIP
THE ONE SKILL YOU WILL NEED:
PREDICT THE FUTURE
My way of doing startups
• 1. Building a great team (Ex google / top dev / the best / people I
have fun working with / deeply passionate ) -> unfair advantage
• 2. Always follow natural traction (even if it goes in the wrong
direction) -> customer north
• 3. I d rather have a small piece of something big -> scale
• 5. Learn by doing the latest techno as soon as possible (AR/
Crypto) -> get a taste of the future early on
• 6. Grow great community / give forward as much as I can / trust
by default -> we’re chimpanzees :D
Agenda
1. Startup Crashes lessons learned
2. Things no one talks about
3. Get Real / Interactive session
Q&A
0 to 10 minutes
Ask questions in Chat!
1. Startup Crashes lessons learned
Success does not mean anything if it is not
associated to a goal
In the case of Startups the goal is to have
1.A stable Business Model (BM)
2.A scalable BM
if revenue > cost we can consider the startup BM stable
Example:
TIME0
$1b
GRASSROOTS
CLASSIC
the .001%
REVENUE
DON’T LOOK AT SUCCESSES!
Since Blaise Pascal (17th century) we can apply the
scientific method to any unknown phenomenon...
When a plane crashes we don’t look back at why the other one did
not crash we focus on why the plane crashed!
Interesting enough planes rarely crash because of one reason. Rather
than that they crash because of an alignment of conditions (ie engine
failing + bad weather + pilot sleeping)
After each crash, the learnings are taken and applied to avoid them
again... WE SHOULD DO THIS WITH STARTUPS!
Why ice-creams fail?
Ben and Jerry’s Graveyard...
Why Startup Fail?
1. Steve Blank :The main reason is failure to find customers
2. Eric Ries :The main reason is spending to much time developing vs testing early
(Answer : Customer Development)
(Answer : Lean Startup Methodology)
3. Noam Wassermann : 65% of failures are due to founders drama
Other Category : Jim Collins : Separating the good from the great...
(Jim did focused on success vs failure and large corp vs startup)
Failure does not go away after success
TIME
DISCOVER
You are here ->
6 chances out of a million!
STARTUP=TEAM^2 * IDEA
SCALE-UP = (TEAM*IDEA)^2
CHAMPION = TEAM * IDEA^2
3 VERY DIFFERENT ANIMALS
(SEARCH ENGINE / BUSINESS MODEL / FAST CYCLE)
(SCALE ENGINE / WIN EARLY STAGE RACE)
(EXECUTE ENGINE / OPTIMIZE / STAY RELEVANT)
THINGS
NO ONE
TALKS ABOUT
0. WE ARE IRRATIONAL
AND A SOCIAL SPECIE
NOW WE ARE
CONNECTED!
A LOT OF US!
A LOT OF OPPORTUNITIES!
1. WTF
MENTORS?
Startup Mentors are like mushrooms
Good ToxicTrippy
-Success story as a founder
-Unfair advantage provider
(best friend with Jeff Bezos…)
-Potential investor
(real $ or Bitcoin :)
-Love your idea and has all
These great ideas
-Never really created anything succesful
But was close to it when it happened :)
-Talks a lot at conferences /
Wrote a book-High Achiever in their field
(world class: NBA / Hacker…)
-Professional Mentor
-Ask for $ or Equity
-Creates Drama
-They don’t want to be mentors
PITCHING
= SELLING
(To mentors/Investors/employee/co founders/customers…)
2. (most)VC / ACCELERATORS
ARE USELESS
1500 VC firms -> 20 returns 95%!
BUT…
50%+ OF PUBLIC COMPANY WERE VC BACKED
% OF HIGH GROWTH COMPANY VC BACKED? -> 5%
3. STARTUP
LIFE IS
MISERABLE
(if it last too long)
No one should want to be in the
Startup Phase : No $, work insane
amount of hours etc.. This is a
necessary condition not an end goal!
But yes you can and should have fun
While in it :D
4. LEAN /
BM CANVAS
ARE JUST
TOOLS
Don’t Spend your days staring
At post-its and models and
reading 100s of Startup
Books!
AVOID THE HYPE
STICK TO THE FACTS!
PS: The odds of starting a company that achieves $100
million or more within six years are 3.5 in 10,000.
A NUMBER TO KEEP IN MIND!
There is a 6 chances out of a million to build
a billion dollar company
STARTUP = TEAM^2 * IDEA
THEORY TO PRACTICAL
3. Getting real
Choices you have to make
a. Lifestyle biz?
b. Local Market?
c. How to spend $?
d. Try Crazy Things?
e. Culture?
f. Raising or not?
Good Luck!

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Fallacy of success

  • 1. To the designers in the room… This presentation will Be UGLY! —@peignoir / Franck Nouyrigat
  • 2. But Tailored! And interactive (If the gods of internet are with us!)
  • 4.
  • 5. Shannon number 10 81 10 123 7 billion people really complex game!Atoms in the known universe Welcome to the Entrepreneurial Game!
  • 6. DISCLAIMER/SURVIROSHIP BIAS: I DON’T KNOW HOW TO BUILD SUCCESSFUL STARTUPS WITHOUT HUGE UNFAIR ADVANTAGES (NO ONE KNOWS!)
  • 7. THE RIGHT PEOPLE + $ NO REGULATION AT THE EARLY STAGE IMPLIES INSIDER TRADING ADVANTAGES UNFAIR ADVANTAGE =
  • 9. IF YOU GET TO CHOSE A SUPER POWER FOR INVESTMENT AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP THE ONE SKILL YOU WILL NEED: PREDICT THE FUTURE
  • 10. My way of doing startups • 1. Building a great team (Ex google / top dev / the best / people I have fun working with / deeply passionate ) -> unfair advantage • 2. Always follow natural traction (even if it goes in the wrong direction) -> customer north • 3. I d rather have a small piece of something big -> scale • 5. Learn by doing the latest techno as soon as possible (AR/ Crypto) -> get a taste of the future early on • 6. Grow great community / give forward as much as I can / trust by default -> we’re chimpanzees :D
  • 11. Agenda 1. Startup Crashes lessons learned 2. Things no one talks about 3. Get Real / Interactive session
  • 12. Q&A 0 to 10 minutes Ask questions in Chat!
  • 13. 1. Startup Crashes lessons learned
  • 14. Success does not mean anything if it is not associated to a goal In the case of Startups the goal is to have 1.A stable Business Model (BM) 2.A scalable BM if revenue > cost we can consider the startup BM stable Example:
  • 16. DON’T LOOK AT SUCCESSES! Since Blaise Pascal (17th century) we can apply the scientific method to any unknown phenomenon... When a plane crashes we don’t look back at why the other one did not crash we focus on why the plane crashed! Interesting enough planes rarely crash because of one reason. Rather than that they crash because of an alignment of conditions (ie engine failing + bad weather + pilot sleeping) After each crash, the learnings are taken and applied to avoid them again... WE SHOULD DO THIS WITH STARTUPS!
  • 17. Why ice-creams fail? Ben and Jerry’s Graveyard...
  • 18. Why Startup Fail? 1. Steve Blank :The main reason is failure to find customers 2. Eric Ries :The main reason is spending to much time developing vs testing early (Answer : Customer Development) (Answer : Lean Startup Methodology) 3. Noam Wassermann : 65% of failures are due to founders drama Other Category : Jim Collins : Separating the good from the great... (Jim did focused on success vs failure and large corp vs startup)
  • 19. Failure does not go away after success TIME
  • 20.
  • 21. DISCOVER You are here -> 6 chances out of a million!
  • 22. STARTUP=TEAM^2 * IDEA SCALE-UP = (TEAM*IDEA)^2 CHAMPION = TEAM * IDEA^2 3 VERY DIFFERENT ANIMALS (SEARCH ENGINE / BUSINESS MODEL / FAST CYCLE) (SCALE ENGINE / WIN EARLY STAGE RACE) (EXECUTE ENGINE / OPTIMIZE / STAY RELEVANT)
  • 24. 0. WE ARE IRRATIONAL AND A SOCIAL SPECIE
  • 26. A LOT OF US! A LOT OF OPPORTUNITIES!
  • 28. Startup Mentors are like mushrooms Good ToxicTrippy -Success story as a founder -Unfair advantage provider (best friend with Jeff Bezos…) -Potential investor (real $ or Bitcoin :) -Love your idea and has all These great ideas -Never really created anything succesful But was close to it when it happened :) -Talks a lot at conferences / Wrote a book-High Achiever in their field (world class: NBA / Hacker…) -Professional Mentor -Ask for $ or Equity -Creates Drama -They don’t want to be mentors
  • 30. 2. (most)VC / ACCELERATORS ARE USELESS
  • 31. 1500 VC firms -> 20 returns 95%! BUT… 50%+ OF PUBLIC COMPANY WERE VC BACKED % OF HIGH GROWTH COMPANY VC BACKED? -> 5%
  • 32. 3. STARTUP LIFE IS MISERABLE (if it last too long)
  • 33. No one should want to be in the Startup Phase : No $, work insane amount of hours etc.. This is a necessary condition not an end goal! But yes you can and should have fun While in it :D
  • 34. 4. LEAN / BM CANVAS ARE JUST TOOLS
  • 35. Don’t Spend your days staring At post-its and models and reading 100s of Startup Books!
  • 36. AVOID THE HYPE STICK TO THE FACTS!
  • 37. PS: The odds of starting a company that achieves $100 million or more within six years are 3.5 in 10,000. A NUMBER TO KEEP IN MIND! There is a 6 chances out of a million to build a billion dollar company
  • 38. STARTUP = TEAM^2 * IDEA THEORY TO PRACTICAL
  • 40. Choices you have to make a. Lifestyle biz? b. Local Market? c. How to spend $? d. Try Crazy Things? e. Culture? f. Raising or not?