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Prepared for Chinese Investors
Facts & Investment Opportunities in UK NHS
2013. 05
Healthcare Is Wresting Up Global Trends and Community Features
Source: Economic Intelligent Unit; World Industry Outlook: Healthcare and Pharmaceuticals
CAGR 7.9%
CAGR 1.9%
CAGR 2.9%
2008
2014
Healthcare spend
(PPP-adjusted)
Population
100,000,000-
500,000,000+
1,000,000,000+
£572bn
£1,643bn
£1,167bn
Source: Total Departmental Expenditure Limits, 2014-15;
London Health Observatory; Office for National Statistics (2002-06)
Policy and legislation
A patient-led NHS
Autonomy and
accountability
Finance and
efficiency
NHS as a Global Leading Example in Sustaining the UK Gig Society
NHS
(Healthcare)
Education
Defence
Technical
efficiency
Improvement
Tools SPC
Demand &
Capacity
Spread
Planner
Integrated
care systems
Data
Walls
Allocative
efficiency
NHS board
Cost reduction
Pathways Selective
surgery
Personalised
treatment
Prevention
Multi-agency
coordination
Home-based
care
Capital
management
Lifestyle
change
Whitepaper
Health bills
Health watch
Need-based
Partnership
Westminster Station:
Male Life Expectancy
78.6 (CI 76.0-81.2)
Female Life Expectancy
84.6 (CI 82.5-86.7)
Canning Town Station:
Male Life Expectancy
72.8 (CI 71.1-74.6)
Female Life Expectancy
81.4 (CI 79.3-83.6)
Future Dynamics and Challenges in UK NHS
Source: “The Future of the NHS”
AGP-centred
NHS
Surgery
MedicineA & E
General Practice &
Primary Care
New
diseases
New
discoveries
New pattern
of diseases
New integration
of diagnosis with
therapy
Integration for
“Multi-
disciplinary”
team
Further
enhancement of
surgery
education &
training
Technology –
driven surgery
Rationalisation
of surgery
regulation
Formation of
emergency
care network
Allocation
more
resources
Integration
with other
care units
Need-based
not post code
lottery
Governance
restructuring &
integration
Prevention &
health
promotion
Research on
emergency
medicines
Source: The King’s Fund
With no real rise 2011/12 – 2013/14 and no
real productivity improvement
With rise 2011/12 – 2013/14 and
productivity improvement
unviableviable
£126 billion NHS funding needed in 2013/14 to
meet Wanless NHS vision of ‘solid progress’
(85%+ provided by taxation)
£3.5bn real pay
and prices
£12bn improve
quality
£1.4bn waiting
time
£1.6bn capital £21bn shortfall if
no real
productivity
improvement
£1.8bn
demand
drivers
£0.4bn clinical
governance
Further Investment is Needed to Achieve This Ambitious Goal
Current Public Funding Gaps Open Doors for Private Finance Initiatives
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1996-97
1998-99
2000-01
2002-03
2004-05
2006-07
2008-09
2010-11
2012-13
2014-15
2016-17
2018-19
2020-21
2022-23
2024-25
2026-27
2028-29
2030-31
2032-33
2034-35
2036-37
2038-39
2040-41
2042-43
2044-45
2046-47
2048-49
Unitary Charge Payment (£m)
Others Department of Health
Source: HM Treasury
Estimated
Developer Equity
Public Sector Equity
Third Party Equity
Senior Lender
(Public bonds /
Private
Placements /
Bank debt and
other sources)
Senior Capital
c. 75-80% of
capital structure
Subordinate
Capital
c. 20-25% of
capital structure
Financially Invest in UK NHS to Share Gains from Restructuring Cost Base
Source: Department of Health Customer Service Centre;
Office of Health Economics;
Office of Budget Responsibility
Nuffield Trust
Disease
Management
Pay Policy
QIPP Actions
Cost Leadership of UK NHS
2031/322013/141950/51
History Forecast
£5bn
£3bn
£4bn
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
Net Expenditure
(£ bn at 2010/11 prices)
Scenario A
(3.7% annual real growth)
Scenario B
(2.9% annual real growth)
Net Expenditure as a proportion of GDP
Appendix A – UK NHS New Governance Structure
Parliament
Secretary of State Department of Health
National Quality Board
Clinical Networks National Commissioning Board (NHSCB) Clinical Senates
Public Health England Healthwatch England Health Education England NICE
CQC Monitor
SHA Clusters
Cooperation and
Competition Panel
NHS Providers
Foundation Trusts
Any qualified
providers, including
charities, private
sector and NHS
providers
SHAs
PCTs
Local government
Local Government
public health
responsibility
Oversight and Scrutiny Panels
Health and Wellbeing Boards
“Local arms of National Board” / regional outpostPCT ClustersDeaneries
Citizens’ Panel
Local NHS Education
and Training Board
Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCG)
Accredited Commissioning Groups
Shadow Commissioning Groups
GP Practices
New Body
Existing Organisation
(retained until April 2013)
Line of Accountability
Consult/Issue Guidance etc
Merge
Commission Service from
38.7 155.3 177.9 229.7
1084.9
3369.6
258.6 321.1 389.4
217.8
676.4
270.5
452.1 485.4 509.9
695.3
2159.5
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2010 2020
Government Social Personal
Appendix B – Contrast Example on Opening-up China Healthcare System
1997
2000
2009
2010
2012
China’s MoH explicitly states
that the government will relax
the rules for investment in the
health-care industry, including
funding from private investors
and businesses
China allows joint ventures between
Chinese businesses and foreign
private investors for investing in
healthcare facilities with foreign
holdings strictly limited to 70%
The MoH specifically acknowledges
China’s role in “encouraging and
guiding social [private] capital to
develop healthcare”
The MoH openly encourages
private investment in a ruling and
announces to gradually lift the 70%
restriction on foreign holdings in
healthcare facilities
Medical institutions reclassified
as a “permitted” investment
category in the revised Foreign
Investment Catalogue (originally
“restricted”)
Source: China Health Statistical Yearbook 2010;
World Health Organization National Health Account database
CAGR
2010-2020:
+12%e
Expenditure
BillionsofRMB
Thank you!
2013. 05
Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chen-cao-451424b6/

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Facts and Investment Opportunities in UK NHS

  • 1. Page 1 Prepared for Chinese Investors Facts & Investment Opportunities in UK NHS 2013. 05
  • 2. Healthcare Is Wresting Up Global Trends and Community Features Source: Economic Intelligent Unit; World Industry Outlook: Healthcare and Pharmaceuticals CAGR 7.9% CAGR 1.9% CAGR 2.9% 2008 2014 Healthcare spend (PPP-adjusted) Population 100,000,000- 500,000,000+ 1,000,000,000+ £572bn £1,643bn £1,167bn
  • 3. Source: Total Departmental Expenditure Limits, 2014-15; London Health Observatory; Office for National Statistics (2002-06) Policy and legislation A patient-led NHS Autonomy and accountability Finance and efficiency NHS as a Global Leading Example in Sustaining the UK Gig Society NHS (Healthcare) Education Defence Technical efficiency Improvement Tools SPC Demand & Capacity Spread Planner Integrated care systems Data Walls Allocative efficiency NHS board Cost reduction Pathways Selective surgery Personalised treatment Prevention Multi-agency coordination Home-based care Capital management Lifestyle change Whitepaper Health bills Health watch Need-based Partnership Westminster Station: Male Life Expectancy 78.6 (CI 76.0-81.2) Female Life Expectancy 84.6 (CI 82.5-86.7) Canning Town Station: Male Life Expectancy 72.8 (CI 71.1-74.6) Female Life Expectancy 81.4 (CI 79.3-83.6)
  • 4. Future Dynamics and Challenges in UK NHS Source: “The Future of the NHS” AGP-centred NHS Surgery MedicineA & E General Practice & Primary Care New diseases New discoveries New pattern of diseases New integration of diagnosis with therapy Integration for “Multi- disciplinary” team Further enhancement of surgery education & training Technology – driven surgery Rationalisation of surgery regulation Formation of emergency care network Allocation more resources Integration with other care units Need-based not post code lottery Governance restructuring & integration Prevention & health promotion Research on emergency medicines
  • 5. Source: The King’s Fund With no real rise 2011/12 – 2013/14 and no real productivity improvement With rise 2011/12 – 2013/14 and productivity improvement unviableviable £126 billion NHS funding needed in 2013/14 to meet Wanless NHS vision of ‘solid progress’ (85%+ provided by taxation) £3.5bn real pay and prices £12bn improve quality £1.4bn waiting time £1.6bn capital £21bn shortfall if no real productivity improvement £1.8bn demand drivers £0.4bn clinical governance Further Investment is Needed to Achieve This Ambitious Goal
  • 6. Current Public Funding Gaps Open Doors for Private Finance Initiatives 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 1996-97 1998-99 2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006-07 2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 2014-15 2016-17 2018-19 2020-21 2022-23 2024-25 2026-27 2028-29 2030-31 2032-33 2034-35 2036-37 2038-39 2040-41 2042-43 2044-45 2046-47 2048-49 Unitary Charge Payment (£m) Others Department of Health Source: HM Treasury Estimated Developer Equity Public Sector Equity Third Party Equity Senior Lender (Public bonds / Private Placements / Bank debt and other sources) Senior Capital c. 75-80% of capital structure Subordinate Capital c. 20-25% of capital structure
  • 7. Financially Invest in UK NHS to Share Gains from Restructuring Cost Base Source: Department of Health Customer Service Centre; Office of Health Economics; Office of Budget Responsibility Nuffield Trust Disease Management Pay Policy QIPP Actions Cost Leadership of UK NHS 2031/322013/141950/51 History Forecast £5bn £3bn £4bn 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 Net Expenditure (£ bn at 2010/11 prices) Scenario A (3.7% annual real growth) Scenario B (2.9% annual real growth) Net Expenditure as a proportion of GDP
  • 8. Appendix A – UK NHS New Governance Structure Parliament Secretary of State Department of Health National Quality Board Clinical Networks National Commissioning Board (NHSCB) Clinical Senates Public Health England Healthwatch England Health Education England NICE CQC Monitor SHA Clusters Cooperation and Competition Panel NHS Providers Foundation Trusts Any qualified providers, including charities, private sector and NHS providers SHAs PCTs Local government Local Government public health responsibility Oversight and Scrutiny Panels Health and Wellbeing Boards “Local arms of National Board” / regional outpostPCT ClustersDeaneries Citizens’ Panel Local NHS Education and Training Board Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCG) Accredited Commissioning Groups Shadow Commissioning Groups GP Practices New Body Existing Organisation (retained until April 2013) Line of Accountability Consult/Issue Guidance etc Merge Commission Service from
  • 9. 38.7 155.3 177.9 229.7 1084.9 3369.6 258.6 321.1 389.4 217.8 676.4 270.5 452.1 485.4 509.9 695.3 2159.5 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2010 2020 Government Social Personal Appendix B – Contrast Example on Opening-up China Healthcare System 1997 2000 2009 2010 2012 China’s MoH explicitly states that the government will relax the rules for investment in the health-care industry, including funding from private investors and businesses China allows joint ventures between Chinese businesses and foreign private investors for investing in healthcare facilities with foreign holdings strictly limited to 70% The MoH specifically acknowledges China’s role in “encouraging and guiding social [private] capital to develop healthcare” The MoH openly encourages private investment in a ruling and announces to gradually lift the 70% restriction on foreign holdings in healthcare facilities Medical institutions reclassified as a “permitted” investment category in the revised Foreign Investment Catalogue (originally “restricted”) Source: China Health Statistical Yearbook 2010; World Health Organization National Health Account database CAGR 2010-2020: +12%e Expenditure BillionsofRMB
  • 10. Thank you! 2013. 05 Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chen-cao-451424b6/