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Expanding Housing Finance to the Underserved in South Asia Market Review and Forward Agenda South Asia Regional Housing Finance Conference January 27-29 2010, New Delhi, India
Background ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Importance of Housing ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Housing Debt to GDP (percent)
Growth potential of Housing Finance ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
GDP growth  and urbanization
Estimates of the growth potential ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Expanding access to middle /lower-income groups: developing a sound and accessible market ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
A shortage of over 38 million housing units in the region 24.7m 5m 1m 7.6m 0.65m ,[object Object],[object Object]
The Glum Reality in the Slums Country Slums’ Statistics Afghanistan 80 percent of the Kabul population (2.44 million) live in slums Bangladesh 2,100 slums; more than 2 million people in Dhaka live either in slums or are without any proper shelter India 52,000 slums holding 8 million urban households, representing about 14 percent of the total urban population. Pakistan Karachi alone has between 600-800 slums, sheltering about 7.6 million (or 1 million households) out of the total city population of 15.1 million people Sri Lanka A considerable share of the population of Sri Lanka lives in plantations, slums and shanties.
Housing Supply in South Asia ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Prevalence of Temporary Housing in South Asia Country Temporary Housing Afghanistan No data Bangladesh 50 percent of all housing India 45 percent of all housing Pakistan 39 percent of all housing Sri Lanka 20 percent of housing units have mud floors
Real estate prices; secondary markets ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Country Cost to construct low-income housing (per square foot) Afghanistan $15 to $20 Bangladesh $27 India $20 to $22 Pakistan $9.6 to $12 Sri Lanka increased about threefold between 1990-2005
Growth Rates of the South Asia Housing Finance Industry 2007-2008
Housing finance markets ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Typical Mortgage Terms in South Asia Country Typical Mortgage Terms Afghanistan $10,000-$20,000, 12%, 20 year maturity Bangladesh $36,300-$43,600, 14-15%, 10-15 year maturity, restrictive loan-to-cost maximums (capped at 70% generally, but averaging 50% in practice). Interest rates mostly variable India $30,000 on average, 12%, 13 years maturity, plain vanilla home amortizing loans, on predominantly floating rates and with prepayment penalties, average loan to value ratio of 65% (maximum 85% at origination) Pakistan $21,000-$44,400 on average, 15-17%, 12.5 years maturity on average Sri Lanka $10,000-$40,000, 15-17%, 15-25 year maturity on average, generally fixed rates by state-owned banks and variable rates by private banks
Total Mortgage Balances Outstanding and Market Shares, by country Country Bank Mortgage Financing State Specialized Mortgage Financing Private Specialized Mortgage Financing Islamic Mortgage Financing Afghanistan 100% (a) 0% 0% included in (a)  Bangladesh (Tk. 142.4 bn) 64% 17% 12% 7% India ( IRs. 3,970 bn) 66% (b) 4% 30% included in (b) Pakistan (Rs. 89.9 bn) 76% 13% 0% 11% Sri Lanka (Rs. 181 bn) 75% 25% 0% 0%
Housing Finance Market Players ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Risk Management ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Low-income housing solutions ,[object Object],[object Object],Who can't afford low-cost housing? ,[object Object]
Regulatory Framework for Housing and Housing Finance ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Administrative Efficiency of Land Offices and Cadastral Records ,[object Object],[object Object]
Time to Foreclose on Property in South Asia
Credit Bureaus in South Asia Country Typical Credit Information Collected Afghanistan None – there is no credit bureau. Bangladesh The public credit registry collects data on loans over $800, excluding MFI and utilities, retailers, and trade creditor data. The data is manual and extends only 2 years back. India The private Credit Information Bureau of India Ltd. covers over 78 million individual borrowers (10.2% of adults) and over a million firms. Data collected is both positive and negative, without a loan or other size limit, excluding MFIs, utilities, retailers, and trade creditor data. The data is computerized and goes back several years. Pakistan The public Credit Information Bureau collects data on both consumers (at most 12% of adults) and firms (up to 2 million by estimate), without a loan or other size limit, excluding MFIs, utilities, retailers, and trade creditor data. The data is computerized and goes back several years. Three private credit bureaus – Datacheck Ltd, News-VIS Credit Information Systems, and ICIL/ PakBizInfo – have recently opened, with narrower coverage than the public bureau. Sri Lanka The public Credit Information Bureau covers 80 percent of all loans by value, on individuals and companies. Data collected is both positive and negative, on performing loans over SL Rs 500,000, 3-month-overdue loans over SL Rs 100,000, and 3-month-overdue credit card balances over SL Rs 5,000, excluding MFIs, utilities, retailers, and trade creditor data. The data is computerized though manual reports are used, and goes back several years.
Policy Options ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Thank you! Tatiana Nenova World Bank

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Expanding housing finance to the underserved in south

  • 1. Expanding Housing Finance to the Underserved in South Asia Market Review and Forward Agenda South Asia Regional Housing Finance Conference January 27-29 2010, New Delhi, India
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4. Housing Debt to GDP (percent)
  • 5.
  • 6. GDP growth and urbanization
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10. The Glum Reality in the Slums Country Slums’ Statistics Afghanistan 80 percent of the Kabul population (2.44 million) live in slums Bangladesh 2,100 slums; more than 2 million people in Dhaka live either in slums or are without any proper shelter India 52,000 slums holding 8 million urban households, representing about 14 percent of the total urban population. Pakistan Karachi alone has between 600-800 slums, sheltering about 7.6 million (or 1 million households) out of the total city population of 15.1 million people Sri Lanka A considerable share of the population of Sri Lanka lives in plantations, slums and shanties.
  • 11.
  • 12. Prevalence of Temporary Housing in South Asia Country Temporary Housing Afghanistan No data Bangladesh 50 percent of all housing India 45 percent of all housing Pakistan 39 percent of all housing Sri Lanka 20 percent of housing units have mud floors
  • 13.
  • 14. Growth Rates of the South Asia Housing Finance Industry 2007-2008
  • 15.
  • 16. Typical Mortgage Terms in South Asia Country Typical Mortgage Terms Afghanistan $10,000-$20,000, 12%, 20 year maturity Bangladesh $36,300-$43,600, 14-15%, 10-15 year maturity, restrictive loan-to-cost maximums (capped at 70% generally, but averaging 50% in practice). Interest rates mostly variable India $30,000 on average, 12%, 13 years maturity, plain vanilla home amortizing loans, on predominantly floating rates and with prepayment penalties, average loan to value ratio of 65% (maximum 85% at origination) Pakistan $21,000-$44,400 on average, 15-17%, 12.5 years maturity on average Sri Lanka $10,000-$40,000, 15-17%, 15-25 year maturity on average, generally fixed rates by state-owned banks and variable rates by private banks
  • 17. Total Mortgage Balances Outstanding and Market Shares, by country Country Bank Mortgage Financing State Specialized Mortgage Financing Private Specialized Mortgage Financing Islamic Mortgage Financing Afghanistan 100% (a) 0% 0% included in (a) Bangladesh (Tk. 142.4 bn) 64% 17% 12% 7% India ( IRs. 3,970 bn) 66% (b) 4% 30% included in (b) Pakistan (Rs. 89.9 bn) 76% 13% 0% 11% Sri Lanka (Rs. 181 bn) 75% 25% 0% 0%
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23. Time to Foreclose on Property in South Asia
  • 24. Credit Bureaus in South Asia Country Typical Credit Information Collected Afghanistan None – there is no credit bureau. Bangladesh The public credit registry collects data on loans over $800, excluding MFI and utilities, retailers, and trade creditor data. The data is manual and extends only 2 years back. India The private Credit Information Bureau of India Ltd. covers over 78 million individual borrowers (10.2% of adults) and over a million firms. Data collected is both positive and negative, without a loan or other size limit, excluding MFIs, utilities, retailers, and trade creditor data. The data is computerized and goes back several years. Pakistan The public Credit Information Bureau collects data on both consumers (at most 12% of adults) and firms (up to 2 million by estimate), without a loan or other size limit, excluding MFIs, utilities, retailers, and trade creditor data. The data is computerized and goes back several years. Three private credit bureaus – Datacheck Ltd, News-VIS Credit Information Systems, and ICIL/ PakBizInfo – have recently opened, with narrower coverage than the public bureau. Sri Lanka The public Credit Information Bureau covers 80 percent of all loans by value, on individuals and companies. Data collected is both positive and negative, on performing loans over SL Rs 500,000, 3-month-overdue loans over SL Rs 100,000, and 3-month-overdue credit card balances over SL Rs 5,000, excluding MFIs, utilities, retailers, and trade creditor data. The data is computerized though manual reports are used, and goes back several years.
  • 25.
  • 26. Thank you! Tatiana Nenova World Bank