John Smith's presentation for the e-World Purchasing and Supply Conference - March 2014

1. Confidential to Apple Inc Company
Watch Ltd
“Streamlining Supplier Risk”
Data Feeds and Systems Integration
eWorld Purchasing & Supply Conference
London, 4 March 2014
John A. Smith – Client Relationship Director
Company Watch
“Hindsight in Advance”

2. Northern Rock: September 2007
Lehman Brothers: September 2008
Halifax Bank of Scotland: September 2008
The Royal Bank of Scotland: October 2008
When Did It All Start?

3. Construction Index
IPOs
House building
Unemployment figures
Inward Investment
When Will It All End?

4. One “R” word for another
Recession
Recovery

5. Recovery Kills!
Businesses are now leaner, meaner and
hardened, BUT
They are more at risk emerging from a
recession

6. The Major Risk is:
Overtrading…….
Pressure on finances, staff and systems
Supply Chain/Procurement Teams should
be reviewing their key suppliers NOW

7. Changes
Europe
USA
China
Emerging markets
MINT countries: Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria
and Turkey

8. Changes
More Government cutbacks
Thursday, 7th May 2015 – Election Day
The banking industry
Regulations
Europe Referendum

9. Changes
Skills levels available
Your competitors
Zombie companies
Energy costs
Social media

10. Changes
Technology advancements
Supply chain responsibilities
Customer responsibilities
Fraud

11. One Result is…..
More data, information…..
“NOISE”

12. You Need
Better and more timely
information…..
.….with a growing need for mobile
applications across an organisation

13. You Need
To streamline and automate
processes to improve efficiency
whilst maintaining stability

14. “Big Data”
Master Data Management/Data Governance
Data and systems integration
Better quality and more focussed business
intelligence - rather than just data
Single view of a customer/supplier

15. “Users”
Finance
Marketing and Sales
Credit
Operations
Purchasing/Procurement ??

16. Two Data Delivery Systems
Browser - direct to users
Data Feeds and APIs (Application
Programming Interfaces)
- direct to users’ systems/computers

17. Data Feeds and APIs
Bulk
On Demand

18. Different Payloads
Raw Data
Standard Analytics
Bespoke Analytics
Reports
Charts

19. CONTRACT CHAIN
COMPANY B
£ 150 M
COMPANY C
£200 M
COMPANY D
£ 250 M
Company m £25 M
Company n £25 M
Company X £20 M
.
Company p £40 M
Company q £40 M
Company X £25 M
.
Company r £70 M
Company s £60 M
Company X £30 M
.
Company t £80 M
Company u £80 M
Company X £35 M
.
.
YOUR COMPANY
COMPANY A
£ 100 M

20. How good are your analytical tools?How good are your analytical tools?
Forward looking
Flexible
Stress-testing & forecasting
Reliable

21. Give Yourself The Tools To Discriminate
HIBU PLC

22. Early Warnings
SILVERDELL PLC

23. Early Warnings EDS Group Holdings Limited

24. Early Warnings
Constar International U.K. Limited

25. Early Warnings
2E2 HOLDINGS LIMITED

26. An indication of how often you are likely
to lose money
Does your ratings provider split up their
success rate by country/business type?
If not, why not?
Can I update the rating if I get
management accounts?
Question 1 – What percentage of companies
which failed were flagged up as risky?

27. Question 2 – What percentage of companies
are in your Warning Area or equivalent?
A big warning area decreases the amount of
defaults/failures which are missed, but decreases the
amount of business you can do.

28. Don’t Be Complacent –
You Need Tools You Can Trust?
Quantity ≠ Quality
Cheap ratings are a false economy
£280 Million debt
Less than 7p per pound
Recovered

29. Is the rating overly sensitive to a particular
input?
Has the company reallocated which SIC code it
files under?
Question 4 – How Stable Are Your Ratings?

30. Looking Forward: Stress testing & forecasting

31. Looking Forward: Stress testing & forecasting

32. You need to be prepared for the
insolvencies of the coming two years
Make sure you have a rating system that
you trust
Separate the zen from the toys!

33. Confidential to Apple Inc Company
Watch Ltd
Come and talk to us on Stand 15
John A. Smith – Client Relationship Director
info@companywatch.net
www.companywatch.net