Presentation of Jody Springer

1. Evaluating the Impact of Community Based DRR
Projects
December 4, 2019
Jody Springer
Data AnalyticsTeam Lead
Hazard MitigationAssistance, Mitigation Division
US Federal Emergency Management Agency

2. Federal Emergency Management Agency
FEMA Hazard Mitigation Assistance (HMA)
FEMA manages four mitigation programs with one in development
 Pre-Disaster Programs
• Flood Mitigation Assistance – Mitigate National Flood Insurance Program insured structures
• Pre-Disaster Mitigation– Assists communities in implementing sustained pre-disaster mitigation
projects
• Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities – Provides mitigation for large infrastructure and
critical lifelines
 Post Disaster Programs
• Hazard Mitigation Grant Program– Implements hazard mitigation measures after Presidential
declared disasters
• HMGP-Post Fire – Provides mitigation funding in burned areas
2

3. Federal Emergency Management Agency
Hazard Mitigation Assistance - Historic Funding
Mitigation funding fluctuates year to year based on event occurrences and Congressional
appropriations.
3
$-
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
In Millions

4. Federal Emergency Management Agency
Funding by Project Types
The US states, territories and tribal nations
submit grant proposals for mitigation
projects.
 Projects must be pre-identified in the
hazard mitigation plan.
 The states, territories and tribes submit
proposals that are prioritized at the
grantee level for review and approval.
4

5. Federal Emergency Management Agency
History of Mitigation Projects
5

6. Federal Emergency Management Agency
Benefit Cost Analysis Requirements
Projects funded by FEMA must demonstrate that the anticipated benefits of a project meet
or exceed the costs.
 Legislative authorizations for the programs require projects are cost-effective.
 The Office of Management and Budget publishes guidance for US agencies to follow when
conducting the benefit cost analysis in Circular A-94, Guidelines and Discount Rates for
Benefit-Cost Analysis of Federal Programs revised October 29, 1992.
 Analysis is performed by the local communities, some with limited technical capabilities or
economic background.
 FEMA provides training and technical assistance.
6

7. Federal Emergency Management Agency
Benefit Cost Analysis Requirements
OMB A-94 provides general guidance and basic requirements for Federal agencies.
 A fixed discount rate of 7% must be utilized to discount future benefits to today’s dollars.
 Tangible and intangible benefits and costs should be identified.
 Future inflation is highly uncertain and analysts should avoid making assumptions about the
general rate of inflation.
 Direct project benefits should be considered, secondary and tertiary benefits should not be
included as a benefit.
7

8. Federal Emergency Management Agency
Conducting the Benefit Cost Analysis
To facilitate preparation of a BCA, FEMA has developed the BCA toolkit which calculates a BCR
for the project.
 New Version, v. 6.0 is Excel based and features an improved user experienced and an 80%
reduction in data inputs.
8

9. Federal Emergency Management Agency
Monetization of Benefits
Benefits are any future costs/damages that can be reduced or avoided as a result of the
mitigation project such as:
 Physical damages
 Loss of service or function of a utility or public facility
 Causalities
 Emergency management costs
 Some projects also qualify for additional benefits: ecosystem services and social benefits.
9
Benefits = Costs Before Mitigation – Costs After Mitigation

10. Federal Emergency Management Agency
Two Basic BCA Methodologies
 These are built into the BCA toolkit so that all the user has to enter is some data about the
project and facility – the user does not have to do the math themselves!
 Let’s take a closer look at each method.
10
Modeled
Damages
Historic or
Expected
Damages

11. Federal Emergency Management Agency
Modeled Damages
 The BCA Toolkit uses established models (equations) to estimate damages that would occur
to a specified building type during a specific frequency of event – also known as the
recurrence interval (RI). (The RI is often referred to as the X-year or Y% annual chance event).
 These modeled damages are analyzed over the project useful life (PUL) to get the total
benefits of the project.
11

12. Federal Emergency Management Agency
Modeled Damages
 Property-specific flood mitigation activities like acquisitions, elevations, floodproofing
 Wind retrofits
 Seismic building retrofits
 Wildfire mitigation
 Tornado and hurricane safe rooms
12

13. Federal Emergency Management Agency
Modeled Damages Data Requirements
Hazard data for project location
• Flood elevations & discharge (from Flood Insurance Study or H&H)
• Tornado counts
• Wildfire burn recurrence interval
• Windspeeds
• Seismic risk
Structure data
• Type of building (one or two story, basement, etc.)
• Square footage
• Number of occupants
Project data
• Before- and after-mitigation conditions (what is being done?)
13
Built into BCAToolkit

14. Federal Emergency Management Agency
Modeled Damage Example – Wildfire
FEMA funds three activities to lessen the risk from wildfires
 Vegetation management – Removes fuel loads
 Defensible Space – Creates buffer around structures
 Structural Retrofits – Use of fire resident building materials or installation of water sprinkler
system on the outside of the structure
Each individual activity is estimated to be only 10% effective at reducing the risk of
wildfires and protecting structures.
The local community may only perform structural retrofits if performed in conjunction with
vegetation management and defensible space activities.
14

15. Federal Emergency Management Agency
Modeled Damage Example – Wildfire
Even though wildfire mitigation projects are only
at best 30% effective and the useful life is short,
they can be very cost effective due to the value of
structures and infrastructure in the protected area.
 Wildfire recurrence intervals is provided by
Landfire (https://www.landfire.gov)
 Project useful life is generally short, 3 to 5 years
 Benefits calculate is based on a maximum project
effectiveness of 30%
 Challenges with meeting environmental and
historic preservation requirements which can
exceed the actual project costs!
15
Upper Lochsa River Idaho Sub-Basin Mean Fire Interval

16. Federal Emergency Management Agency
Historic or Expected Damages
 The BCA Toolkit uses user-entered damage information associated with specific
calendar years and/or recurrence intervals to estimate damages to the facility.
 Instead of using an established model, the software uses the data points entered by the
user to create a curve.
16
Year or RI
Damage

17. Federal Emergency Management Agency
Historic or Expected Damages
Can be used to analyze any hazard/project type.
 Best approach for:
 Any project that is mitigating a non-building, such as a utility or road/bridge
 Any project where the primary damages being mitigated are loss of service/function,
rather than physical damages
 More complex projects like flood control and infrastructure protection
 Generator projects
 Projects mitigating hazards other than flood, wind, tornado, seismic, and wildfire
17

18. Federal Emergency Management Agency
Common BCA issues
Insufficient documentation
 Example: BCA has a Lowest Floor Elevation (LFE) but application does not include
elevation certificate.
Lack of damage history/documentation
 You can still do a BCA! However, you will need a qualified professional to estimate
damages.
Insufficient data/justification on project effectiveness
 All projects – except acquisitions – have a point at which they are no longer effective.
18

19. Federal Emergency Management Agency
Simplifying Analysis
 To simplify the BCA process, FEMA has several “pre-calculated benefits” for projects that
meet certain conditions.
 Using pre-calculated benefits eliminates the requirement for applicants to conduct a separate
BCA for eligible projects. For more information visit www.fema.gov/benefit-cost-analysis.
19

20. Federal Emergency Management Agency
Where Analysis Can be Improved Upon
How weather and climate are changing
• Anecdotal evidence that severe weather events are occurring more frequent, are more extreme in
size and longer duration.
• How do we incorporate extreme weather events into analysis and design mitigation projects to
minimize impacts.
Identify more standard values to use in analysis.
• Update existing values or service to account for a change in lifestyle.
• Identify value of services for telecommunications, 911/112/999 services, other lifeline functions.
20

21. Federal Emergency Management Agency
What is an Appropriate Discount Rate?
The US Government currently requires a 7% discount rate for FEMA’s mitigation projects.
 The 7% discount rate is arguably high and has not been revised since 1992.
 For smaller projects, it is somewhat easy to demonstrate most projects as cost effective.
 For large infrastructure projects in which benefits are accrued for more than 30 years and
provides multigenerational benefits, the 7% discount rate makes it difficult to demonstrate
projects are cost effective.
 The 7% discount rate may drive investment of funds toward smaller projects versus large
community wide infrastructure projects.
21

22. Questions?