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José Ramón Perea
Annalisa Primi

OECD Development Centre




        San José, Costa Rica
              July 31st, 2012
Outline of the report



    1. Costa Rica as a knowledge economy: achievements and challenges

    2. Strategy, governance and policy mix for attracting knowledge-
       intensive FDI to Costa Rica

    3. A road map for policy action




2
A long-standing democracy and a stable macroeconomic environment

Robust GDP growth since the 60s, only halted with the arrival of the Debt Crisis.

                                                      GDP growth, Costa Rica, 1960-2011




- Post-crisis
performance
characterized by
greater GDP
growth volatility,
although better
than many other
Latin American
countries.




 3
         Source: Authors’ calculations based on World Bank data.
A remarkable record in per capita income

     GDP growth patterns has left Costa Rica with one of the highest per capita
     income level of the region.


         Latin America, GDP per capita
         1985-2009                                                 - By 2009, Costa Rica’s per
                                                                   capita income was the fourth
                                                                   highest among a
                                                                   comprehensive sample of
                                                                   Latin American countries.

                                                                   - Growth has facilitated the
                                                                   task of poverty alleviation,
                                                                   which is reduced
                                                                   substantially. Extreme
                                                                   poverty is reduced more
                                                                   acutely.




4
       Source: Authors’ calculations based on Penn World Tables.
Costa Rica relied heavily on FDI attraction
                          FDI, selected economies, 1985-2010
                           (net inflows as percentage of GDP)




       Source: Authors’ calculations based on World Bank data


5
A proven track record in FDI attraction



             Number of companies in knowledge-
             intensive activities,
             Costa Rica, 1960-2011




          Source: CINDE, April 2012.



6
FDI became a stable source of external financing

         Balance of payments, Costa Rica, 1990-2010




 7
     Source: Authors’ elaboration based on International Monetary Fund (IMF).
FDI contributed to job creation

Number of jobs created by FDI projects in
Costa Rica by sector (2003-05 and 2009-11)




Note: Total number of FDI-related jobs created for each period for
green field projects: 2003-05:
7 758 jobs; 2009-11: 34 385 jobs.
Source: Authors’ calculations based on fDi Intelligence, 2012.


   8
FDI fostered export diversification and upgrading
Costa Rica evolved from an export structure which was highly
concentrated on agricultural products and textiles and garments…


Costa Rica: Product Space
(1988)




 9
               Source: Authors’ calculations based on Feenstra et al. (2005).
…to a more diversified export structure with new, more sophisticated products.
Costa Rica: Product Space
(2008)




- Costa Rica is an “outlier”
in the Product Space: the
accrual of export-oriented
FDI to technology-intensive
sectors allowed the country
to “jump” into areas far from
the country’s original
competitiveness




  10
                     Source: Authors’ calculations based on COMTRADE.
But ... Costa Rica needs to strengthen its national innovation system

  The commitment to invest in innovation is very low




               R&D intensity and the role of the private sector,
               OECD and non-OECD economies, 2009




         Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from UNESCO, RICYT and the OECD Main Science
         and Technology Indicators database.

 11
Skills are a critical factor for FDI attraction, but...



                                              Determinants of FDI in Costa Rica and
                                              in selected economies,
                                              2003-12
                                              (% of total motive-citing investing
                                              companies)




        Notes: Often more than one investment motive is recorded for any investing company; hence the sum of share of companies
        mentioning a certain motive exceeds 100%. The share of companies for which investment motives are recorded over the total
        number of investing companies varies by country: Costa Rica: 51.1%, Malaysia: 51.3%, China: 38.4%, India: 43.6%. Data
12      recorded from Jan 2003 - March 2012. IPA means Investment Promotion Agency.
        Source: Authors’ calculations based on fDi Intelligence data, 2012.
...there is a mismatch between skilled-labour supply and production structure needs.


                        Profile of PhDs by area of specialisation, shares over total,
                                   Costa Rica, Chile and Mexico, 2000-09




      Source: Authors’ calculations based on RICYT data.




 13
Linkages between foreign and domestic companies are also low

      .

due to several reasons:                        Domestic credit provided by the banking sector,
                                               2010 (% GDP)
Limited access to finance for
domestic companies

Lack of certifications and
standards

Low domestic capabilities

Little demand from MNCs




 14
          Source: Authors’ elaboration based on World Bank data.
1. Costa Rica as a knowledge economy: achievements and challenges

     2. Strategy, governance and policy mix for attracting knowledge-
        intensive FDI to Costa Rica

     3. A road map for policy action




15
The national strategy for FDI in Costa Rica: prioritising knowledge-intensive FDI
3 approaches to FDI attraction:

  Horizontal          Selective        Systemic
                                      (or Integrated)

                 Costa Rica



                                                        - Target of attracting
                                                        USD 9 billion by 2014,
                                                        half of which should
                                                        come from productive
                                                        investment.




 16
The challenge of clarifying the objectives
 Policy priorities for FDI attraction in innovation-related activities




Note: x indicates the level of priority (x = priority; xx= higher priority).
Source: Authors’ elaboration based on OECD (2010) and consultations with Costa Rican Government institutions carried out by the OECD
Development Centre in 2011.




17
The challenge of increasing policy co-ordination




      Note: COMEX and MICIT interact with other ministries in designing and implementing FDI policies, including the
      Ministry of Planning, which is in charge of setting overall national development targets, and the Ministry of
18    Education.
      Source: Authors’ elaboration.
The challenge of managing a more complex policy mix




                                Policy mix
 Framework    Investment     Fiscal      Incentives for      Incentives for
 conditions    promotion   incentives   talent creation   innovation and S&T
                                         and retention       development




 19
The challenge of facing a new scenario


                 Rising competition to attract high value added
Global            and knowledge-intensive FDI
changes          New potential investors, beyond additional
                  partners
                 Rising uncertainty regarding the future of
                  production unbundling
Domestic         Learning in policy making in Costa Rica
changes          Accumulated business capacities
                 Rising prioritisation of innovation in Latin
                  America



20
The new landscape requires an enhanced policy framework




21
        Source: Authors’ elaboration.
A Road Map for policy action: what are the suggested actions?

1. Strengthening political   The Presidential Council for Competitiveness and
                             Innovation needs to have more enforcement power to
leadership and               elaborate shared guidelines and priorities to foster policy
horizontal co-ordination     co-ordination



                             Creating a small and agile observatory-type institution
2. Increasing diagnostics    under the direction of the Presidential Council for
capabilities                 Competitiveness and Innovation could help in monitoring
                             policy implementation and assessing impact.

                             Avoiding the risk of dualism FDI and the rest of the
                             economy can be tackled also through culture.
3. Promoting the culture
of a knowledge-driven        Costa Rica needs to break the vicious cycle that
society                      simplistically associates knowledge and technology with
                             foreign action and traditional activities with domestic
                             agents.


 22
Road Map for Policy Action

4. Updating the           Additional effort is needed to familiarise potential investors –
country branding and      and the global community in general – with the new Costa
                          Rica.
fostering outreach

5. Diversifying and       Investment promotion in Costa Rica has been very effective,
updating investment       but there is a need to look at other markets as potential
                          sources for FDI .
promotion activity


6. Improving the          Need to increase the quality and quantity of the skilled labour
quality and supply of     force, especially in science and engineering.
                          Costa Rica could create a fund for skills development
the skilled labour        supported by contributions from the government and MNCs.
force


 23
Road Map for Policy Action


                           Increase the budget for innovation policy
7. Improving the policy    Improve the policy mix (ex. Business incubators and new
mix and channeling         generation of techno parks)
more resources to          Improve the design of innovation incentive schemes
                           Fostering the development of linkages between MNCs and
innovation                 domestic companies




                          Strengthening its research capacities in universities and
   8. Improving local     research centers.
 research capabilities    Costa Rica’s small size is a critical factor. The country will
                          need to take a selective approach




 24
Conclusions


         Prioritising knowledge-intensive FDI is a strategic option for Costa Rica.
         However, this is not a low-hanging fruit. It will require strong government
         commitment, leadership, horizontal co-ordination and financial resources.

          The enhanced policy framework will not be a “zero-cost” change, as it
     will require mobilising higher public resources.

         Higher resources are not in themselves a guarantee of success; they
         require effective planning and management; but below a critical mass of
         public budget, even the most well-designed plan will face implementation
         obstacles. This is even truer in innovation-related domains, where public
         effort needs to be backed by private investment .




25
www.oecd.org/dev
       www.oecd-library.org




     Contact: annalisa.primi@oecd.org
             joseramon.perea@oecd.org


26

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Estrategias de desarrollo: Retos y respuestas para los países de renta media – Expositor Mario Pezzini, Director Centro de Desarrollo de la OCDE

  • 1. José Ramón Perea Annalisa Primi OECD Development Centre San José, Costa Rica July 31st, 2012
  • 2. Outline of the report 1. Costa Rica as a knowledge economy: achievements and challenges 2. Strategy, governance and policy mix for attracting knowledge- intensive FDI to Costa Rica 3. A road map for policy action 2
  • 3. A long-standing democracy and a stable macroeconomic environment Robust GDP growth since the 60s, only halted with the arrival of the Debt Crisis. GDP growth, Costa Rica, 1960-2011 - Post-crisis performance characterized by greater GDP growth volatility, although better than many other Latin American countries. 3 Source: Authors’ calculations based on World Bank data.
  • 4. A remarkable record in per capita income GDP growth patterns has left Costa Rica with one of the highest per capita income level of the region. Latin America, GDP per capita 1985-2009 - By 2009, Costa Rica’s per capita income was the fourth highest among a comprehensive sample of Latin American countries. - Growth has facilitated the task of poverty alleviation, which is reduced substantially. Extreme poverty is reduced more acutely. 4 Source: Authors’ calculations based on Penn World Tables.
  • 5. Costa Rica relied heavily on FDI attraction FDI, selected economies, 1985-2010 (net inflows as percentage of GDP) Source: Authors’ calculations based on World Bank data 5
  • 6. A proven track record in FDI attraction Number of companies in knowledge- intensive activities, Costa Rica, 1960-2011 Source: CINDE, April 2012. 6
  • 7. FDI became a stable source of external financing Balance of payments, Costa Rica, 1990-2010 7 Source: Authors’ elaboration based on International Monetary Fund (IMF).
  • 8. FDI contributed to job creation Number of jobs created by FDI projects in Costa Rica by sector (2003-05 and 2009-11) Note: Total number of FDI-related jobs created for each period for green field projects: 2003-05: 7 758 jobs; 2009-11: 34 385 jobs. Source: Authors’ calculations based on fDi Intelligence, 2012. 8
  • 9. FDI fostered export diversification and upgrading Costa Rica evolved from an export structure which was highly concentrated on agricultural products and textiles and garments… Costa Rica: Product Space (1988) 9 Source: Authors’ calculations based on Feenstra et al. (2005).
  • 10. …to a more diversified export structure with new, more sophisticated products. Costa Rica: Product Space (2008) - Costa Rica is an “outlier” in the Product Space: the accrual of export-oriented FDI to technology-intensive sectors allowed the country to “jump” into areas far from the country’s original competitiveness 10 Source: Authors’ calculations based on COMTRADE.
  • 11. But ... Costa Rica needs to strengthen its national innovation system The commitment to invest in innovation is very low R&D intensity and the role of the private sector, OECD and non-OECD economies, 2009 Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from UNESCO, RICYT and the OECD Main Science and Technology Indicators database. 11
  • 12. Skills are a critical factor for FDI attraction, but... Determinants of FDI in Costa Rica and in selected economies, 2003-12 (% of total motive-citing investing companies) Notes: Often more than one investment motive is recorded for any investing company; hence the sum of share of companies mentioning a certain motive exceeds 100%. The share of companies for which investment motives are recorded over the total number of investing companies varies by country: Costa Rica: 51.1%, Malaysia: 51.3%, China: 38.4%, India: 43.6%. Data 12 recorded from Jan 2003 - March 2012. IPA means Investment Promotion Agency. Source: Authors’ calculations based on fDi Intelligence data, 2012.
  • 13. ...there is a mismatch between skilled-labour supply and production structure needs. Profile of PhDs by area of specialisation, shares over total, Costa Rica, Chile and Mexico, 2000-09 Source: Authors’ calculations based on RICYT data. 13
  • 14. Linkages between foreign and domestic companies are also low . due to several reasons: Domestic credit provided by the banking sector, 2010 (% GDP) Limited access to finance for domestic companies Lack of certifications and standards Low domestic capabilities Little demand from MNCs 14 Source: Authors’ elaboration based on World Bank data.
  • 15. 1. Costa Rica as a knowledge economy: achievements and challenges 2. Strategy, governance and policy mix for attracting knowledge- intensive FDI to Costa Rica 3. A road map for policy action 15
  • 16. The national strategy for FDI in Costa Rica: prioritising knowledge-intensive FDI 3 approaches to FDI attraction: Horizontal Selective Systemic (or Integrated) Costa Rica - Target of attracting USD 9 billion by 2014, half of which should come from productive investment. 16
  • 17. The challenge of clarifying the objectives Policy priorities for FDI attraction in innovation-related activities Note: x indicates the level of priority (x = priority; xx= higher priority). Source: Authors’ elaboration based on OECD (2010) and consultations with Costa Rican Government institutions carried out by the OECD Development Centre in 2011. 17
  • 18. The challenge of increasing policy co-ordination Note: COMEX and MICIT interact with other ministries in designing and implementing FDI policies, including the Ministry of Planning, which is in charge of setting overall national development targets, and the Ministry of 18 Education. Source: Authors’ elaboration.
  • 19. The challenge of managing a more complex policy mix Policy mix Framework Investment Fiscal Incentives for Incentives for conditions promotion incentives talent creation innovation and S&T and retention development 19
  • 20. The challenge of facing a new scenario  Rising competition to attract high value added Global and knowledge-intensive FDI changes  New potential investors, beyond additional partners  Rising uncertainty regarding the future of production unbundling Domestic  Learning in policy making in Costa Rica changes  Accumulated business capacities  Rising prioritisation of innovation in Latin America 20
  • 21. The new landscape requires an enhanced policy framework 21 Source: Authors’ elaboration.
  • 22. A Road Map for policy action: what are the suggested actions? 1. Strengthening political The Presidential Council for Competitiveness and Innovation needs to have more enforcement power to leadership and elaborate shared guidelines and priorities to foster policy horizontal co-ordination co-ordination Creating a small and agile observatory-type institution 2. Increasing diagnostics under the direction of the Presidential Council for capabilities Competitiveness and Innovation could help in monitoring policy implementation and assessing impact. Avoiding the risk of dualism FDI and the rest of the economy can be tackled also through culture. 3. Promoting the culture of a knowledge-driven Costa Rica needs to break the vicious cycle that society simplistically associates knowledge and technology with foreign action and traditional activities with domestic agents. 22
  • 23. Road Map for Policy Action 4. Updating the Additional effort is needed to familiarise potential investors – country branding and and the global community in general – with the new Costa Rica. fostering outreach 5. Diversifying and Investment promotion in Costa Rica has been very effective, updating investment but there is a need to look at other markets as potential sources for FDI . promotion activity 6. Improving the Need to increase the quality and quantity of the skilled labour quality and supply of force, especially in science and engineering. Costa Rica could create a fund for skills development the skilled labour supported by contributions from the government and MNCs. force 23
  • 24. Road Map for Policy Action Increase the budget for innovation policy 7. Improving the policy Improve the policy mix (ex. Business incubators and new mix and channeling generation of techno parks) more resources to Improve the design of innovation incentive schemes Fostering the development of linkages between MNCs and innovation domestic companies Strengthening its research capacities in universities and 8. Improving local research centers. research capabilities Costa Rica’s small size is a critical factor. The country will need to take a selective approach 24
  • 25. Conclusions Prioritising knowledge-intensive FDI is a strategic option for Costa Rica. However, this is not a low-hanging fruit. It will require strong government commitment, leadership, horizontal co-ordination and financial resources. The enhanced policy framework will not be a “zero-cost” change, as it will require mobilising higher public resources. Higher resources are not in themselves a guarantee of success; they require effective planning and management; but below a critical mass of public budget, even the most well-designed plan will face implementation obstacles. This is even truer in innovation-related domains, where public effort needs to be backed by private investment . 25
  • 26. www.oecd.org/dev www.oecd-library.org Contact: annalisa.primi@oecd.org joseramon.perea@oecd.org 26