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ESG Country Credit Rating
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Sovereign Bonds:
ESG Credit Ratings
ESG Country Credit Rating
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About this report
Sovereign Bonds & ESG
November 2021
Methodology, data gathering, calculation, & report compilation © SolAbility.
The Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index is a non-commercial project.
Results and other materials related to the Index are published under the
creative commons licence and are free to use and re-distribute with source.
Reproduction and dissemination is welcome & encouraged with citation of
source.
Acknowledgements
The compilation and calculation of the Global Sustainable Competitiveness
Index would not have been possible without the data and time series made
available by the World Bank Indicator database, various UN agencies (UNDP,
UNEP, UNICEF, FAO, WHO, WMO, www.data.un.org), the International
Monetary Fund (IMF), and other non-governmental organisations, including
Transparency International, Reporters without Borders, The New Economics
Foundation, The Institute for Economics and Peace, The Fund For Peace, and
the Joint Global Change Research Institute at the Pacific Northwest National
Laboratory.
About the Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index (GSCI)
The GSCI measures the mutual integrative state of development,
competitiveness and sustainability, based on 131 quantitative performance
data indicators derived from international organisations (World Bank, UN, IMF).
It is based on the 5 pillars of sustained competitiveness: Natural Capital,
Resource Intensity/Efficiency, Social Capital, Intellectual Capital, and
Governance. The GSCI serves and an alternative measurement of national
success to the GGDP, and as a strength-weakness analysis for decision makers,
both internal and external. It is the currently most comprehensive country
performance index available.
About SolAbility
SolAbility is an independent sustainability think-tank with a fairly successful
history in sustainable management implementation in large corporations.
SolAbility is the publisher of the Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index and
the maker of 3 DJSI Super-Sector Leaders.
SolAbility Sustainable Intelligence
Zurich, Seoul
www.solability.com
contact@solability.com
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Table of Contents
1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................. 4
2 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................ 5
2.1 THE NEGATIVE CIRCLE CAUSED BY CREDIT RATINGS DEVELOPING NATIONS .................. 5
2.2 INSUFFICIENT RISK COVERAGE IN CURRENT SOVEREIGN RATINGS............................... 6
3 ESG VS. CONVENTIONAL CREDIT RATING....................................................... 7
3.1 RATING CRITERIA: SOVEREIGN BOND RATINGS VS. GSCI........................................... 7
3.1.1 SOVEREIGN BOND RATINGS ................................................................................... 7
3.1.2 MODEL COMPARISON........................................................................................... 8
3.1.3 CRITERIA COMPARISON: CONVENTIONAL RATINGS VS. SUSTAINABILITY RATING ............... 9
3.1.4 EMPIRIC CORRELATIONS: CONVENTIONAL & SUSTAINABLE RATINGS, GDP...................10
3.2 SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN RATINGS............................................................... 11
3.3 SUSTAINABILITY-ADJUSTED RATING DIFFERENCES WORLD MAP ................................ 12
4 IMPLICATIONS & CONCLUSIONS.................................................................. 13
4.1 IMPLICATIONS ............................................................................................. 13
4.2 CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................. 14
5 COUNTRY LIST: SOVEREIGN BONDS VS. SUSTAINABLE ADJUSTED RATINGS... 15
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1 Executive Summary
For the purpose of this report, a fictional ESG credit rating based on the Global
Sustainable Competitiveness Index was compared to the currently used
conventional credit ratings as published by the big rating agencies – Moody’s
S&P, and Fitch. The comparison shows significant differences:
• ESG-adjusted ratings and conventional ratings show significant
differences. Under a sustainability-adjusted credit rating,
countries with high reliance on exploitation of natural resources
would be rated lower, while some of the lesser developed
countries with a healthy fundament (biodiversity, education,
governance) would receive higher ratings.
• Sovereign bond ratings do not sufficiently reflect the non-
tangible risks and opportunities associated with specific nation-
economies
• Sovereign bond ratings show a high correlation to GDP/capita
levels. Poor countries are due higher interest rates than rich
countries.
• Sovereign bond ratings can in facilitate a negative circularity:
bad credit ratings lead to higher cost of capital and debt
servicing, which in turn led to bad credit rating.
Sovereign bond ratings, which define interest rates that countries have to pay
on credits, loans and debt – still do not sufficiently integrate ESG considerations,
despite recent exploration of the ESG theme by the large rating agencies.
“Social and environmental aspects are considered too weak” in influencing
government capability and willingness to meet financial demands. However –
it can be argued that the contrary is the case: conventional sovereign credit
ratings fail to identify and do not sufficiently reflect risks AND opportunities
inherited in the specifics of each country.
ESG Sovereign Bond Rating
Current Rating > ESG
ESG = Current Rating
ESG Rating > Current
Current ratings of the Middle East, but
also the US, China and India seem
unrealistically high.
The current ratings for some of the
lesser developed countries is too low.
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2 Introduction
2.1 The Negative Circle Caused by Credit Ratings
Developing Nations
Credit rating define the interest a country has to pay on loans, state bonds –
and therefore have a huge impact on the investment freedom as well as
capital cost of a country. It is therefore a very important parameter for every
economy – it defines the level of capital cost for new investments (whatever
the nature of those investment may be), and the level of debt servicing. Debt
servicing accounts for a significant part of state revenues in the heavily
indebted countries. On the other side of the equitation, credit ratings also
affect the risks an investor is willing to take in overseas investments.
Sovereign risk ratings are calculated by a number of rating agencies, most
notable by the “three sisters”: Moody’s S&P, and Fitch. The ratings of these
three players therefore have an immense impact on the cost of capital of a
specific country.
Conventional credit ratings are calculated based on a mix of economic,
political and financial risks – i.e. current risks. However, current risks - like GDP -
do not do not reflect the framework that creates the current situation.
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2.2 Insufficient Risk Coverage in Current Sovereign Ratings
The rating methodologies tend to focus on current fiscal, financial,
governance and ideological risks. This can lead to a negative (or positive)
cycle: Bad credit rating leads to higher cost of capital and higher debt burden.
Higher debt and debt servicing obligations in turn leads to bad credit rating,
or vice-versa in the case of wealthier nations with sound state revenues and
budgets. Low credit rating therefore is a double punishment, in particular for
the developing nations.
Credit ratings do not look at or consider the underlying fundamentals – the
ability and motivation of the workforce, the health and well-being and the
social fabric of a society, the physical environment (natural and man-made),
resource usage and efficiency, or school indicators – the sum of which
determines a nations competitiveness going forward. Credit ratings describe
the symptoms, but they do not reflect the root causes. It is therefore
questionable whether credit ratings truly reflect all investment risks associated
with a specific country.
The Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index is based on quantitative (i.e.
subjective) indicators. It takes into account not only the financial value of the
economic output, but also the state of the country in terms of natural capital,
resource intensity, education and innovation level, and governance
performance indicators. The GSCI measures the performance of what makes
the outcome.
The GSCI is calculated based on 131 measurable quantitative indicators,
normalised by relevant measurements, evaluating both the latest
performance as well as the performance (trend) over time of the indicator. For
further information on the GSCI and its methodology, please refer to the GSCI
website.
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3 ESG vs. Conventional Credit Rating
In order to test sovereign bond ratings against sustainability, average country
ratings are compared to a virtual sustainability-adjusted credit rating based on
the Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index (GSCI).
For comparability, the scores of the GSCI have been converted to ratings
equivalent to credit ratings - a sustainable credit rating. The sustainability-
adjusted credit rating consists of the average conventional rating and the
GSCI rating, each weighted at 50%.
The generated grades are compared to the average credit rating of Moody’s,
S&P, and Fitch.
3.1 Rating criteria: sovereign bond ratings vs. GSCI
3.1.1 Sovereign Bond ratings
The sovereign bond rating market is dominated by just three main providers,
Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch. All three of them use different methodologies, but
similar structures. They are based on similar rating frameworks and criteria,
namely cantered around 4 key themes:
• Governance
• Finances & balance sheets
• Economic output development
• The political and regulatory framework, including event risks
The naming of those pillars differs, and individual criteria also differ. However,
all current credit ratings highly weight monetary numbers, in particular GDP-
related numbers, government finance numbers, and market numbers. The
non-quantitative criteria are less clearly defined in publicly available
documentation. Some are based on external evaluation (such as the World
Bank Government Efficiency indicators or the WEF Competitiveness Index. The
latter is itself a perception survey): Other indicators are based on qualitative
agency staff evaluation – a qualitative evaluation of policies, frameworks,
numbers, developments and expectations.
Qualitative indicators based on a value-free framework that is consistently
applied can represent a useful reflection of performance. The thinking behind
the framework needs to be completely value free, free of thinking based on
economic beliefs or expectations. However, qualitative criteria require a
definition of “good” and “bad”, and therefore cannot guarantee absolute
objectiveness. However, some cases of rating adjustments following political
changes or decisions in the past suggest that the definitions of “good” and
“bad” applied by the three large rating agencies are not completely free of
ideological thinking.
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Sovereign bond ratings structure:
Convectional credit ratings are based on 4 main themes. All themes include
qualitative as well as qualitative criteria and indicators.
Pillar Key measurements
Governance, Institutions Quantitative, payment track record
Qualitative, extern & internal indicators
Economic development Quantitative output numbers & development (GDP)
Qualitative, internal & external indicators
Finance & balance sheets Quantitative, debt and payments
Qualitative,
Policy framework & event risks Quantitative, bank sector, liquidity
Qualitative, political environment & risks
3.1.2 Model comparison
The Global Competitiveness Model is based on 5 pillars, aiming to cover &
evaluate performance of all elements that make economic development (the
root). Conventional ratings are based on 4 areas of results. Conventional
credit ratings rate the outcome (the end-result) – the GSCI the root cause of
the outcome.
For more information on the Global Sustainable Competitiveness
Methodology, please refer to the GSCI website.
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3.1.3 Criteria comparison: conventional ratings vs. sustainability rating
The criteria comparison is based on the country-level extension of the ESG
(Environment, Societal, Governance) model to an ESGE (Environment, Society,
Governance, Economy) model
Under the assumption that a country-evaluation and credit rating should
integrate sustainability, i.e. the non-financial performance that makes or
prevents financial performance, then the coverage of conventional sovereign
bond ratings only cover a small part of the full performance and associated
risks of individual countries..
Sovereign ratings Sustainable ratings
Pillar Issue Coverage Criteria Coverage Criteria
Environment Renewable resources - Water, land
Non-renewable resources - Commodities
Biodiversity - Forest, fertility, species
Resource efficiency - Resource efficiency
Pollution - Pollution levels (air, soil)
Climate change
vulnerability
- Emissions, exposure to risks
Social Health - Availability, cost
Equality
Wealth inequality "Might
affect rating"
Gender, income, wealth
Communities - Public services,
Security "Might affect rating" Crime statistics
Violence Violent conflicts
Violent conflicts, human
rights
Governance Institutions Governance efficiency Governance efficiency
Fiscal Spending, debt, … Debts
Allocation balance "Might affect rating"
Balance of gov. budget
allocation
Budget balance Spending discipline
Spending balance related
to economic phase
Corruption External indexes External indexes
Infrastructure Indexes
Investments, coverage,
quality
Freedom "Might affect rating"
Press freedom, Human
rights
Economy Education - Performance indicators
Innovation - Performance indicators
Economic development Sector balance
Sector balance, business
developments
Financial markets
Banking sector, others
"Might affect rating"
Exposure to financial
market risks, bubbles
GDP performance
GDP absolute, per
capita, trend, …
GNI absolute, per capita,
trend
Not covered Covered
Hardly covered Partly covered
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3.1.4 Empiric Correlations: conventional & sustainable ratings, GDP
Correlations: GSCI and Sovereign Bond ratings
While there seems to be a slight
initial correlation between credit
ratings and GSCI ratings, (higher
sustainability equals positive
credit rating) on first sight, there
are too many exceptions to be
considered correlating. The
empiric correlation is 25%. For
some countries there is a fairly
visible correlation – e.g. the
wealth nations of Scandinavia,
where credit ratings correlate
strongly with GSCI ratings.
However, for too many
economies, in particular of
developed countries, high credit
rating is not reflected in high
sustainable competitiveness
score. The lack of correlation strongly suggest that sovereign bond ratings do
not fully reflect risks and opportunities of and associated with individual nation-
economy, in particular long-term risks.
Correlations to GDP performance
Correlation analysis shows that
conventional ratings are to
nearly 50% tied to GDP
performance – not surprising
given the weight allocated to
GDP-based indicators in
sovereign bond ratings. GSCI
ratings on the other hand show
a very limited correlation to GDP
levels.
The high correlation to GDP
levels of conventional sovereign
bond ratings indicate that
sovereign bond ratings do not
reflect the full extent of
opportunities and risks
associated with individual
country performance. It also means that poor countries generally receive
lower ratings: poor countries have to pay higher interest rates than rich
countries.
GSCI vs sovereign credit
ratings show no
correlation, indicating
insufficient coverage of
sustainability risks in
current methodologies
Conventional ratings show
strong correlation to GDP:
poor countries have lower
ratings
R² = 0.0169
R² = 0.4846
0
10’000
20’000
30’000
40’000
50’000
60’000
70’000
80’000
90’000
100’000
5 10 15 20 25 30
GDP correlations
GSCI Conventional
Linear (GSCI) Linear (Conventional)
R² = 0.258
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
5 10 15 20 25 30
Sustainable
competitiveness
Credit rating
Sustainable competitiveness vs. credit ratings
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3.2 Significant differences in ratings
The GSCI has not been developed to reflect credit and default risks, and
therefore cannot be a direct comparison. We therefore have created a virtual
sustainability-adjusted sovereign bond rating. The sustainability adjusted rating
is equally based on the GSCI rating and the average of Fitch, Moody’s, and
S&P.
Compared to the conventional ratings of Moody’s, S & P, and Fitch, the
sustainability-adjusted credit ratings show some significant differences. Some
countries would see credit ratings upgrades. Other countries would be
downgraded under a fictional credit rating based on the Sustainable
Competitiveness Index.
The US and Australia would be significantly downgraded, while countries that
have low credit ratings mostly due to political reasons (Greece, Argentina),
would receive more favourable ratings. A significant number of lesser
developed, poorer countries (measured in GDP) would receive higher ratings
due to availability of natural capital, lower resource intensity, and the future
development potential.
Rating differences for selected countries:
Country Credit
Rating
(average of
Moody's,
S&P, Fitch)
GSCI
Rating
Level
Difference
Sustainability-
Adjusted
Rating
Level
Difference
Australia AAA BBB+ -7 AA− -3
Brazil BB BBB+ 5 BBB− 3
Canada AAA A− -6 AA− -3
Denmark AAA AA -2 AA+ -1
France AA AA− -1 AA 0
Guatemala BB B -3 BB− -1
Iceland A AA 3 AA− 2
India BBB− B+ -4 BB -2
Iraq B− CC -4 CCC -2
Italy BBB A− 2 BBB+ 1
Ivory Coast BB− BBB− 3 BB+ 2
Japan A+ A+ 0 A+ 0
Lithuania A A 0 A 0
Mongolia B BB− 2 B+ 1
Saudi Arabia A+ BB− -8 BBB -4
Tanzania B BB− 2 B+ 1
United Kingdom AA− A+ -1 AA− 0
USA AAA A− -6 AA− -3
Please refer to the tables for all county rating comparisons.
Current, sustainability and sustainability-adjusted ratings of selected countries
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3.3 Sustainability-adjusted rating differences world map
However, what is most interesting is the World map of upgrades and
downgrades of individual countries based on the virtual sustainability-adjusted
credit rating (see World map below): oil-rich Middle Eastern countries (Saudi
Arabia, Kuwait, etc.) would be significantly downgraded several levels, while
most countries in South America, Eastern Europe and Central Africa would
receive a credit rating upgrade.
The Global Map – which countries would benefit from sustainability-adjusted
credit ratings, and which countries would have to pay higher interest rates
Differences between current credit ratings and sustainability-adjusted credit
ratings: green indicates higher rating (i.e. lower interest rates), red lower rating
(i.e. higher interest rates); blue indicates no difference between current rating
and sustainability-adjusted credit rating
The World map shows a distinctive trend – mostly countries whose current
financial wealth is based to a significant part on the exploration of non-
renewable resources have a lower rating, i.e. would have to pay higher interest
rates on their debts, in particular the oil-rich nations in the Middle East. Eastern
Europe as well as South America (except Chile) would do better under
sustainability-adjusted credit ratings and occur lower interest rates. A number
of African countries, mainly in sub-Saharan tropical Africa, would also see their
credit rating increase.
Differences of current
conventional ratings and
sustainability-adjusted
ratings: red is lower, green
higher rating; blue is
neutral. For grey countries,
sovereign bond ratings are
not available
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4 Implications & Conclusions
4.1 Implications
The failure of integrating the fundamentals of country competitiveness has two
major implications – for investors (creditors) on one hand, and for the debtors
(countries) on the other hand:
• Credit rating do not fully reflect risks – environmental and social risks, as
well as opportunities arising from innovation are insufficiently covered
by current sovereign bond ratings.
• Interest rates for sovereign bonds differ significantly from country to
country – the comparison with ESG-adjusted ratings suggests that due
to insufficient credit rating quality, some countries pay too high interest,
others too low.
Sovereign credit ratings are based on economic output figures, and financial
stability indicators, here and there adjusted by qualitative indicators that might
(or might not) affect the final ratings. This approach is intended to calculate
the country risk default, on which the interest (risk) rate on loans credits and
bonds are calculated. However, such indicators do not sufficiently cover all
risks – namely the risks inherited in an unbalanced economy (e.g. oil-rich
nations), and also do not account for environmental risks (e.g. water and
pollution constraints), as well as risks associated with social upheaval. In
addition, they do insufficiently cover the opportunities that come with
investments in education.
The lack of coverage of
sustainability factors in evaluating
credit worthiness not only
insufficiently covers the risks, it also
leads to a distortion of credit ratings.
Countries with low GDP – both
absolute and per capita – are
automatically punished with higher
interest rates: developing countries
have to pay significantly higher
interest on their debt than
developed economies: the poor
countries have higher capital cost
than rich countries. Nepal or India,
for example, pay the three times as
much interest as the US, and even
more compared to Germany.
Form a development perspective, the current form applied in sovereign bond
ratings is a barrier to development. Development requires investment in
education, infrastructure, and health. The high interest rates developing
economies have to pay on credits therefore make development more difficult
and more costly compared to economies that already are developed.
Average cost of new
credits for selected
countries: developed
nations – here Germany
and the US – have to pay
much lower interests than
developing countries,
slowing the development
of under-developed
countries.
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bangladesh Benin Fiji, Rep. of
Germany India Japan
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4.2 Conclusions
Sovereign bond ratings define the interest rates a country has to pay on credits
and debt. The ratings therefore have a high impact on country finances.
There has been welcome, visible and accelerating movement within the
financial industry as a whole. Some form of “ESG”-integration into investment
risk/opportunity evaluation and investment decisions is now mainstream in the
asset management World.
The same applies now also to the major credit rating agencies. In the past, ESG
considerations - social and environmental aspects - were “considered too
weak” in influencing government capability and willingness to meet financial
demands. Luckily, this seems to have changed significantly over the last few
years. However, it is not yet clear how and to what extend they tend to fully
integrate ESG considerations in their rating frameworks and methodologies,
bot for corporate ratings and sovereign bond ratings namely for project risk
evaluation and corporate ratings.
At this point in time, sovereign bond ratings - which define interest rates that
countries have to pay on credits, loans and debt – still do not sufficiently
integrate ESG considerations.
The comparison of current sovereign bond ratings and a sustainability-adjusted
county credit ratings shows significant differences. Countries whose wealth is
based on exploitation of natural resources would receive a significant lower
credit rating. May developing nations would receive higher ratings (and
therefor lower interest rates) based on their development potential.
• Sovereign bond ratings show a high correlation to GDP/capita
levels. Poor countries have to pay higher interest rates than rich
countries.
• Sovereign bond ratings do not reflect the non-tangible risks and
opportunities associated with nation economies
• Sustainable adjusted ratings and conventional ratings show
significant differences. Under a sustainability-adjusted credit
rating, countries with high reliance on exploitation of natural
resources would be rated lower, while poor country with a
healthy fundament (biodiversity, education, governance) would
receive higher ratings.
GDP is the result of thousands of little pieces in an immense machinery,
including “the intangibles”. Credit ratings have to reflect the underlying factors
that define the future development and capability of a country to generate
and sustain wealth. It is high time that credit ratings fully include
ESG/sustainability factors in their risk calculations.
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5 Country list: sovereign bonds vs. sustainable
adjusted ratings
Country Credit Rating
(average of
Moody's, S&P, Fitch)
Sustainability-
Adjusted Rating
Level Difference
Albania B+ BB+ 3
Andorra BBB+ BBB -1
Angola CCC+ B 2
Argentina CCC BB− 5
Armenia B+ BB+ 3
Aruba BBB− B -5
Australia AAA AA− -3
Austria AA+ AA -1
Azerbaijan BB+ BB− -2
Bahamas BB− B -2
Bahrain B+ B− -2
Bangladesh BB− BB 1
Barbados CCC+ B− 1
Belarus B BB 3
Belgium AA− A+ -1
Belize CCC− B+ 5
Benin B+ B -1
Bolivia B BB+ 4
Bosnia and Herzegovina B BB 4
Botswana A− BBB− -3
Brazil BB BBB− 3
Bulgaria BBB BBB+ 1
Burkina Faso B B+ 1
Cambodia B BB− 2
Cameroon B BB 3
Canada AAA AA− -3
Cape Verde B− B− 0
Chile A A 0
China A+ A -1
Colombia BBB− BBB 1
Congo CCC+ B 2
Costa Rica B BBB− 5
Croatia BBB− A− 3
Cuba CC B 5
Cyprus BBB− BBB− 1
Czech Republic AA− A+ -1
Denmark AAA AA+ -1
Dominican Republic BB− BB+ 2
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Country Credit Rating
(average of
Moody's, S&P, Fitch)
Sustainability-
Adjusted Rating
Level Difference
Ecuador CCC+ BB− 5
Egypt B B+ 1
El Salvador B− BB− 4
Estonia AA− A+ -1
Ethiopia CCC B 3
Fiji B+ BB+ 3
Finland AA+ AA+ 0
France AA AA 0
Gabon B− B+ 3
Georgia BB BBB− 2
Germany AAA AA+ -1
Ghana B BB 4
Greece BB BBB− 2
Guatemala BB BB− -1
Honduras B+ B+ 0
Hong Kong AA A -3
Hungary BBB BBB+ 1
Iceland A AA− 2
India BBB− BB -2
Indonesia BBB BBB 0
Iraq B− CCC -2
Ireland A+ A+ 1
Isle of Man AA− A -2
Israel A+ A− -2
Italy BBB BBB+ 1
Ivory Coast BB− BB+ 2
Jamaica B+ B+ 0
Japan A+ A+ 0
Jordan B+ B+ 0
Kazakhstan BBB BBB 0
Kenya B BB 3
Kuwait AA− BBB− -6
Kyrgyzstan B BB 3
Laos CCC+ B+ 4
Latvia A A 0
Lebanon D CC 2
Lesotho B B 0
Liechtenstein AAA AA -2
Lithuania A A 0
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Country Credit Rating
(average of
Moody's, S&P, Fitch)
Sustainability-
Adjusted Rating
Level Difference
Macedonia BB+ BBB− 1
Malaysia A− BBB+ -1
Maldives B− BB− 4
Mali CCC+ B− 1
Malta A+ A -1
Mauritius BBB BBB+ 1
Mexico BBB BBB 0
Moldova B− BB− 3
Mongolia B B+ 1
Montenegro B+ BB 3
Morocco BB+ BB+ 0
Mozambique CCC+ CCC+ 0
Namibia BB BB 1
Netherlands AAA AA -2
New Zealand AA+ AA -1
Nicaragua B− B+ 2
Niger B− B 1
Nigeria B B 0
Norway AAA AA+ -1
Oman BB− BB− 0
Pakistan B− B− 0
Panama BBB BBB 0
Papua New Guinea B B+ 1
Paraguay BB+ BBB− 1
Peru BBB+ BBB+ 0
Philippines BBB BBB− -1
Poland A A− -1
Portugal BBB A− 2
Puerto Rico D B− 6
Qatar AA− BBB− -6
Republic of the Congo CCC+ B− 1
Romania BBB− BBB+ 2
Russia BBB BBB 1
Rwanda B+ B -1
San Marino BB+ BBB 2
Saudi Arabia A+ BBB -4
ESG Country Credit Rating
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Country Credit Rating
(average of
Moody's, S&P, Fitch)
Sustainability-
Adjusted Rating
Level Difference
Senegal BB− BB− 1
Serbia BB+ BBB− 1
Seychelles B+ BB− 1
Singapore AAA AA− -3
Slovakia A A 0
Slovenia A A 1
Solomon Islands CCC+ BB− 4
South Africa BB B+ -2
South Korea AA A+ -2
Spain A− A 1
Sri Lanka CCC+ BB− 4
St Vincent and the Grenadines B− B+ 2
Suriname CCC− B+ 5
Swaziland B− B+ 2
Sweden AAA AAA 0
Switzerland AAA AA+ -1
Taiwan AA n/a #N/A
Tajikistan B− BB− 3
Tanzania B B+ 1
Thailand BBB+ BBB -1
Togo B B 1
Trinidad and Tobago BB B+ -2
Tunisia B− B 2
Turkey B+ BB 2
Uganda B B 0
Ukraine B BB 3
United Arab Emirates AA A− -4
United Kingdom AA− AA− 0
USA AAA AA− -3
Uruguay BBB BBB+ 1
Uzbekistan BB− BB 2
Venezuela D B 7
Vietnam BB BB 0
Zambia CC CCC 2
ESG Country Credit Rating
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ESG Country Credit Ratings

  • 1. ESG Country Credit Rating P a g e | 1 Sovereign Bonds: ESG Credit Ratings
  • 2. ESG Country Credit Rating P a g e | 2 About this report Sovereign Bonds & ESG November 2021 Methodology, data gathering, calculation, & report compilation © SolAbility. The Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index is a non-commercial project. Results and other materials related to the Index are published under the creative commons licence and are free to use and re-distribute with source. Reproduction and dissemination is welcome & encouraged with citation of source. Acknowledgements The compilation and calculation of the Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index would not have been possible without the data and time series made available by the World Bank Indicator database, various UN agencies (UNDP, UNEP, UNICEF, FAO, WHO, WMO, www.data.un.org), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and other non-governmental organisations, including Transparency International, Reporters without Borders, The New Economics Foundation, The Institute for Economics and Peace, The Fund For Peace, and the Joint Global Change Research Institute at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. About the Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index (GSCI) The GSCI measures the mutual integrative state of development, competitiveness and sustainability, based on 131 quantitative performance data indicators derived from international organisations (World Bank, UN, IMF). It is based on the 5 pillars of sustained competitiveness: Natural Capital, Resource Intensity/Efficiency, Social Capital, Intellectual Capital, and Governance. The GSCI serves and an alternative measurement of national success to the GGDP, and as a strength-weakness analysis for decision makers, both internal and external. It is the currently most comprehensive country performance index available. About SolAbility SolAbility is an independent sustainability think-tank with a fairly successful history in sustainable management implementation in large corporations. SolAbility is the publisher of the Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index and the maker of 3 DJSI Super-Sector Leaders. SolAbility Sustainable Intelligence Zurich, Seoul www.solability.com contact@solability.com
  • 3. ESG Country Credit Rating P a g e | 3 Table of Contents 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................. 4 2 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................ 5 2.1 THE NEGATIVE CIRCLE CAUSED BY CREDIT RATINGS DEVELOPING NATIONS .................. 5 2.2 INSUFFICIENT RISK COVERAGE IN CURRENT SOVEREIGN RATINGS............................... 6 3 ESG VS. CONVENTIONAL CREDIT RATING....................................................... 7 3.1 RATING CRITERIA: SOVEREIGN BOND RATINGS VS. GSCI........................................... 7 3.1.1 SOVEREIGN BOND RATINGS ................................................................................... 7 3.1.2 MODEL COMPARISON........................................................................................... 8 3.1.3 CRITERIA COMPARISON: CONVENTIONAL RATINGS VS. SUSTAINABILITY RATING ............... 9 3.1.4 EMPIRIC CORRELATIONS: CONVENTIONAL & SUSTAINABLE RATINGS, GDP...................10 3.2 SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN RATINGS............................................................... 11 3.3 SUSTAINABILITY-ADJUSTED RATING DIFFERENCES WORLD MAP ................................ 12 4 IMPLICATIONS & CONCLUSIONS.................................................................. 13 4.1 IMPLICATIONS ............................................................................................. 13 4.2 CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................. 14 5 COUNTRY LIST: SOVEREIGN BONDS VS. SUSTAINABLE ADJUSTED RATINGS... 15
  • 4. ESG Country Credit Rating P a g e | 4 1 Executive Summary For the purpose of this report, a fictional ESG credit rating based on the Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index was compared to the currently used conventional credit ratings as published by the big rating agencies – Moody’s S&P, and Fitch. The comparison shows significant differences: • ESG-adjusted ratings and conventional ratings show significant differences. Under a sustainability-adjusted credit rating, countries with high reliance on exploitation of natural resources would be rated lower, while some of the lesser developed countries with a healthy fundament (biodiversity, education, governance) would receive higher ratings. • Sovereign bond ratings do not sufficiently reflect the non- tangible risks and opportunities associated with specific nation- economies • Sovereign bond ratings show a high correlation to GDP/capita levels. Poor countries are due higher interest rates than rich countries. • Sovereign bond ratings can in facilitate a negative circularity: bad credit ratings lead to higher cost of capital and debt servicing, which in turn led to bad credit rating. Sovereign bond ratings, which define interest rates that countries have to pay on credits, loans and debt – still do not sufficiently integrate ESG considerations, despite recent exploration of the ESG theme by the large rating agencies. “Social and environmental aspects are considered too weak” in influencing government capability and willingness to meet financial demands. However – it can be argued that the contrary is the case: conventional sovereign credit ratings fail to identify and do not sufficiently reflect risks AND opportunities inherited in the specifics of each country. ESG Sovereign Bond Rating Current Rating > ESG ESG = Current Rating ESG Rating > Current Current ratings of the Middle East, but also the US, China and India seem unrealistically high. The current ratings for some of the lesser developed countries is too low.
  • 5. ESG Country Credit Rating P a g e | 5 2 Introduction 2.1 The Negative Circle Caused by Credit Ratings Developing Nations Credit rating define the interest a country has to pay on loans, state bonds – and therefore have a huge impact on the investment freedom as well as capital cost of a country. It is therefore a very important parameter for every economy – it defines the level of capital cost for new investments (whatever the nature of those investment may be), and the level of debt servicing. Debt servicing accounts for a significant part of state revenues in the heavily indebted countries. On the other side of the equitation, credit ratings also affect the risks an investor is willing to take in overseas investments. Sovereign risk ratings are calculated by a number of rating agencies, most notable by the “three sisters”: Moody’s S&P, and Fitch. The ratings of these three players therefore have an immense impact on the cost of capital of a specific country. Conventional credit ratings are calculated based on a mix of economic, political and financial risks – i.e. current risks. However, current risks - like GDP - do not do not reflect the framework that creates the current situation.
  • 6. ESG Country Credit Rating P a g e | 6 2.2 Insufficient Risk Coverage in Current Sovereign Ratings The rating methodologies tend to focus on current fiscal, financial, governance and ideological risks. This can lead to a negative (or positive) cycle: Bad credit rating leads to higher cost of capital and higher debt burden. Higher debt and debt servicing obligations in turn leads to bad credit rating, or vice-versa in the case of wealthier nations with sound state revenues and budgets. Low credit rating therefore is a double punishment, in particular for the developing nations. Credit ratings do not look at or consider the underlying fundamentals – the ability and motivation of the workforce, the health and well-being and the social fabric of a society, the physical environment (natural and man-made), resource usage and efficiency, or school indicators – the sum of which determines a nations competitiveness going forward. Credit ratings describe the symptoms, but they do not reflect the root causes. It is therefore questionable whether credit ratings truly reflect all investment risks associated with a specific country. The Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index is based on quantitative (i.e. subjective) indicators. It takes into account not only the financial value of the economic output, but also the state of the country in terms of natural capital, resource intensity, education and innovation level, and governance performance indicators. The GSCI measures the performance of what makes the outcome. The GSCI is calculated based on 131 measurable quantitative indicators, normalised by relevant measurements, evaluating both the latest performance as well as the performance (trend) over time of the indicator. For further information on the GSCI and its methodology, please refer to the GSCI website.
  • 7. ESG Country Credit Rating P a g e | 7 3 ESG vs. Conventional Credit Rating In order to test sovereign bond ratings against sustainability, average country ratings are compared to a virtual sustainability-adjusted credit rating based on the Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index (GSCI). For comparability, the scores of the GSCI have been converted to ratings equivalent to credit ratings - a sustainable credit rating. The sustainability- adjusted credit rating consists of the average conventional rating and the GSCI rating, each weighted at 50%. The generated grades are compared to the average credit rating of Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch. 3.1 Rating criteria: sovereign bond ratings vs. GSCI 3.1.1 Sovereign Bond ratings The sovereign bond rating market is dominated by just three main providers, Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch. All three of them use different methodologies, but similar structures. They are based on similar rating frameworks and criteria, namely cantered around 4 key themes: • Governance • Finances & balance sheets • Economic output development • The political and regulatory framework, including event risks The naming of those pillars differs, and individual criteria also differ. However, all current credit ratings highly weight monetary numbers, in particular GDP- related numbers, government finance numbers, and market numbers. The non-quantitative criteria are less clearly defined in publicly available documentation. Some are based on external evaluation (such as the World Bank Government Efficiency indicators or the WEF Competitiveness Index. The latter is itself a perception survey): Other indicators are based on qualitative agency staff evaluation – a qualitative evaluation of policies, frameworks, numbers, developments and expectations. Qualitative indicators based on a value-free framework that is consistently applied can represent a useful reflection of performance. The thinking behind the framework needs to be completely value free, free of thinking based on economic beliefs or expectations. However, qualitative criteria require a definition of “good” and “bad”, and therefore cannot guarantee absolute objectiveness. However, some cases of rating adjustments following political changes or decisions in the past suggest that the definitions of “good” and “bad” applied by the three large rating agencies are not completely free of ideological thinking.
  • 8. ESG Country Credit Rating P a g e | 8 Sovereign bond ratings structure: Convectional credit ratings are based on 4 main themes. All themes include qualitative as well as qualitative criteria and indicators. Pillar Key measurements Governance, Institutions Quantitative, payment track record Qualitative, extern & internal indicators Economic development Quantitative output numbers & development (GDP) Qualitative, internal & external indicators Finance & balance sheets Quantitative, debt and payments Qualitative, Policy framework & event risks Quantitative, bank sector, liquidity Qualitative, political environment & risks 3.1.2 Model comparison The Global Competitiveness Model is based on 5 pillars, aiming to cover & evaluate performance of all elements that make economic development (the root). Conventional ratings are based on 4 areas of results. Conventional credit ratings rate the outcome (the end-result) – the GSCI the root cause of the outcome. For more information on the Global Sustainable Competitiveness Methodology, please refer to the GSCI website.
  • 9. ESG Country Credit Rating P a g e | 9 3.1.3 Criteria comparison: conventional ratings vs. sustainability rating The criteria comparison is based on the country-level extension of the ESG (Environment, Societal, Governance) model to an ESGE (Environment, Society, Governance, Economy) model Under the assumption that a country-evaluation and credit rating should integrate sustainability, i.e. the non-financial performance that makes or prevents financial performance, then the coverage of conventional sovereign bond ratings only cover a small part of the full performance and associated risks of individual countries.. Sovereign ratings Sustainable ratings Pillar Issue Coverage Criteria Coverage Criteria Environment Renewable resources - Water, land Non-renewable resources - Commodities Biodiversity - Forest, fertility, species Resource efficiency - Resource efficiency Pollution - Pollution levels (air, soil) Climate change vulnerability - Emissions, exposure to risks Social Health - Availability, cost Equality Wealth inequality "Might affect rating" Gender, income, wealth Communities - Public services, Security "Might affect rating" Crime statistics Violence Violent conflicts Violent conflicts, human rights Governance Institutions Governance efficiency Governance efficiency Fiscal Spending, debt, … Debts Allocation balance "Might affect rating" Balance of gov. budget allocation Budget balance Spending discipline Spending balance related to economic phase Corruption External indexes External indexes Infrastructure Indexes Investments, coverage, quality Freedom "Might affect rating" Press freedom, Human rights Economy Education - Performance indicators Innovation - Performance indicators Economic development Sector balance Sector balance, business developments Financial markets Banking sector, others "Might affect rating" Exposure to financial market risks, bubbles GDP performance GDP absolute, per capita, trend, … GNI absolute, per capita, trend Not covered Covered Hardly covered Partly covered
  • 10. ESG Country Credit Rating P a g e | 10 3.1.4 Empiric Correlations: conventional & sustainable ratings, GDP Correlations: GSCI and Sovereign Bond ratings While there seems to be a slight initial correlation between credit ratings and GSCI ratings, (higher sustainability equals positive credit rating) on first sight, there are too many exceptions to be considered correlating. The empiric correlation is 25%. For some countries there is a fairly visible correlation – e.g. the wealth nations of Scandinavia, where credit ratings correlate strongly with GSCI ratings. However, for too many economies, in particular of developed countries, high credit rating is not reflected in high sustainable competitiveness score. The lack of correlation strongly suggest that sovereign bond ratings do not fully reflect risks and opportunities of and associated with individual nation- economy, in particular long-term risks. Correlations to GDP performance Correlation analysis shows that conventional ratings are to nearly 50% tied to GDP performance – not surprising given the weight allocated to GDP-based indicators in sovereign bond ratings. GSCI ratings on the other hand show a very limited correlation to GDP levels. The high correlation to GDP levels of conventional sovereign bond ratings indicate that sovereign bond ratings do not reflect the full extent of opportunities and risks associated with individual country performance. It also means that poor countries generally receive lower ratings: poor countries have to pay higher interest rates than rich countries. GSCI vs sovereign credit ratings show no correlation, indicating insufficient coverage of sustainability risks in current methodologies Conventional ratings show strong correlation to GDP: poor countries have lower ratings R² = 0.0169 R² = 0.4846 0 10’000 20’000 30’000 40’000 50’000 60’000 70’000 80’000 90’000 100’000 5 10 15 20 25 30 GDP correlations GSCI Conventional Linear (GSCI) Linear (Conventional) R² = 0.258 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 5 10 15 20 25 30 Sustainable competitiveness Credit rating Sustainable competitiveness vs. credit ratings
  • 11. ESG Country Credit Rating P a g e | 11 3.2 Significant differences in ratings The GSCI has not been developed to reflect credit and default risks, and therefore cannot be a direct comparison. We therefore have created a virtual sustainability-adjusted sovereign bond rating. The sustainability adjusted rating is equally based on the GSCI rating and the average of Fitch, Moody’s, and S&P. Compared to the conventional ratings of Moody’s, S & P, and Fitch, the sustainability-adjusted credit ratings show some significant differences. Some countries would see credit ratings upgrades. Other countries would be downgraded under a fictional credit rating based on the Sustainable Competitiveness Index. The US and Australia would be significantly downgraded, while countries that have low credit ratings mostly due to political reasons (Greece, Argentina), would receive more favourable ratings. A significant number of lesser developed, poorer countries (measured in GDP) would receive higher ratings due to availability of natural capital, lower resource intensity, and the future development potential. Rating differences for selected countries: Country Credit Rating (average of Moody's, S&P, Fitch) GSCI Rating Level Difference Sustainability- Adjusted Rating Level Difference Australia AAA BBB+ -7 AA− -3 Brazil BB BBB+ 5 BBB− 3 Canada AAA A− -6 AA− -3 Denmark AAA AA -2 AA+ -1 France AA AA− -1 AA 0 Guatemala BB B -3 BB− -1 Iceland A AA 3 AA− 2 India BBB− B+ -4 BB -2 Iraq B− CC -4 CCC -2 Italy BBB A− 2 BBB+ 1 Ivory Coast BB− BBB− 3 BB+ 2 Japan A+ A+ 0 A+ 0 Lithuania A A 0 A 0 Mongolia B BB− 2 B+ 1 Saudi Arabia A+ BB− -8 BBB -4 Tanzania B BB− 2 B+ 1 United Kingdom AA− A+ -1 AA− 0 USA AAA A− -6 AA− -3 Please refer to the tables for all county rating comparisons. Current, sustainability and sustainability-adjusted ratings of selected countries
  • 12. ESG Country Credit Rating P a g e | 12 3.3 Sustainability-adjusted rating differences world map However, what is most interesting is the World map of upgrades and downgrades of individual countries based on the virtual sustainability-adjusted credit rating (see World map below): oil-rich Middle Eastern countries (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, etc.) would be significantly downgraded several levels, while most countries in South America, Eastern Europe and Central Africa would receive a credit rating upgrade. The Global Map – which countries would benefit from sustainability-adjusted credit ratings, and which countries would have to pay higher interest rates Differences between current credit ratings and sustainability-adjusted credit ratings: green indicates higher rating (i.e. lower interest rates), red lower rating (i.e. higher interest rates); blue indicates no difference between current rating and sustainability-adjusted credit rating The World map shows a distinctive trend – mostly countries whose current financial wealth is based to a significant part on the exploration of non- renewable resources have a lower rating, i.e. would have to pay higher interest rates on their debts, in particular the oil-rich nations in the Middle East. Eastern Europe as well as South America (except Chile) would do better under sustainability-adjusted credit ratings and occur lower interest rates. A number of African countries, mainly in sub-Saharan tropical Africa, would also see their credit rating increase. Differences of current conventional ratings and sustainability-adjusted ratings: red is lower, green higher rating; blue is neutral. For grey countries, sovereign bond ratings are not available
  • 13. ESG Country Credit Rating P a g e | 13 4 Implications & Conclusions 4.1 Implications The failure of integrating the fundamentals of country competitiveness has two major implications – for investors (creditors) on one hand, and for the debtors (countries) on the other hand: • Credit rating do not fully reflect risks – environmental and social risks, as well as opportunities arising from innovation are insufficiently covered by current sovereign bond ratings. • Interest rates for sovereign bonds differ significantly from country to country – the comparison with ESG-adjusted ratings suggests that due to insufficient credit rating quality, some countries pay too high interest, others too low. Sovereign credit ratings are based on economic output figures, and financial stability indicators, here and there adjusted by qualitative indicators that might (or might not) affect the final ratings. This approach is intended to calculate the country risk default, on which the interest (risk) rate on loans credits and bonds are calculated. However, such indicators do not sufficiently cover all risks – namely the risks inherited in an unbalanced economy (e.g. oil-rich nations), and also do not account for environmental risks (e.g. water and pollution constraints), as well as risks associated with social upheaval. In addition, they do insufficiently cover the opportunities that come with investments in education. The lack of coverage of sustainability factors in evaluating credit worthiness not only insufficiently covers the risks, it also leads to a distortion of credit ratings. Countries with low GDP – both absolute and per capita – are automatically punished with higher interest rates: developing countries have to pay significantly higher interest on their debt than developed economies: the poor countries have higher capital cost than rich countries. Nepal or India, for example, pay the three times as much interest as the US, and even more compared to Germany. Form a development perspective, the current form applied in sovereign bond ratings is a barrier to development. Development requires investment in education, infrastructure, and health. The high interest rates developing economies have to pay on credits therefore make development more difficult and more costly compared to economies that already are developed. Average cost of new credits for selected countries: developed nations – here Germany and the US – have to pay much lower interests than developing countries, slowing the development of under-developed countries. -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Bangladesh Benin Fiji, Rep. of Germany India Japan
  • 14. ESG Country Credit Rating P a g e | 14 4.2 Conclusions Sovereign bond ratings define the interest rates a country has to pay on credits and debt. The ratings therefore have a high impact on country finances. There has been welcome, visible and accelerating movement within the financial industry as a whole. Some form of “ESG”-integration into investment risk/opportunity evaluation and investment decisions is now mainstream in the asset management World. The same applies now also to the major credit rating agencies. In the past, ESG considerations - social and environmental aspects - were “considered too weak” in influencing government capability and willingness to meet financial demands. Luckily, this seems to have changed significantly over the last few years. However, it is not yet clear how and to what extend they tend to fully integrate ESG considerations in their rating frameworks and methodologies, bot for corporate ratings and sovereign bond ratings namely for project risk evaluation and corporate ratings. At this point in time, sovereign bond ratings - which define interest rates that countries have to pay on credits, loans and debt – still do not sufficiently integrate ESG considerations. The comparison of current sovereign bond ratings and a sustainability-adjusted county credit ratings shows significant differences. Countries whose wealth is based on exploitation of natural resources would receive a significant lower credit rating. May developing nations would receive higher ratings (and therefor lower interest rates) based on their development potential. • Sovereign bond ratings show a high correlation to GDP/capita levels. Poor countries have to pay higher interest rates than rich countries. • Sovereign bond ratings do not reflect the non-tangible risks and opportunities associated with nation economies • Sustainable adjusted ratings and conventional ratings show significant differences. Under a sustainability-adjusted credit rating, countries with high reliance on exploitation of natural resources would be rated lower, while poor country with a healthy fundament (biodiversity, education, governance) would receive higher ratings. GDP is the result of thousands of little pieces in an immense machinery, including “the intangibles”. Credit ratings have to reflect the underlying factors that define the future development and capability of a country to generate and sustain wealth. It is high time that credit ratings fully include ESG/sustainability factors in their risk calculations.
  • 15. ESG Country Credit Rating P a g e | 15 5 Country list: sovereign bonds vs. sustainable adjusted ratings Country Credit Rating (average of Moody's, S&P, Fitch) Sustainability- Adjusted Rating Level Difference Albania B+ BB+ 3 Andorra BBB+ BBB -1 Angola CCC+ B 2 Argentina CCC BB− 5 Armenia B+ BB+ 3 Aruba BBB− B -5 Australia AAA AA− -3 Austria AA+ AA -1 Azerbaijan BB+ BB− -2 Bahamas BB− B -2 Bahrain B+ B− -2 Bangladesh BB− BB 1 Barbados CCC+ B− 1 Belarus B BB 3 Belgium AA− A+ -1 Belize CCC− B+ 5 Benin B+ B -1 Bolivia B BB+ 4 Bosnia and Herzegovina B BB 4 Botswana A− BBB− -3 Brazil BB BBB− 3 Bulgaria BBB BBB+ 1 Burkina Faso B B+ 1 Cambodia B BB− 2 Cameroon B BB 3 Canada AAA AA− -3 Cape Verde B− B− 0 Chile A A 0 China A+ A -1 Colombia BBB− BBB 1 Congo CCC+ B 2 Costa Rica B BBB− 5 Croatia BBB− A− 3 Cuba CC B 5 Cyprus BBB− BBB− 1 Czech Republic AA− A+ -1 Denmark AAA AA+ -1 Dominican Republic BB− BB+ 2
  • 16. ESG Country Credit Rating P a g e | 16 Country Credit Rating (average of Moody's, S&P, Fitch) Sustainability- Adjusted Rating Level Difference Ecuador CCC+ BB− 5 Egypt B B+ 1 El Salvador B− BB− 4 Estonia AA− A+ -1 Ethiopia CCC B 3 Fiji B+ BB+ 3 Finland AA+ AA+ 0 France AA AA 0 Gabon B− B+ 3 Georgia BB BBB− 2 Germany AAA AA+ -1 Ghana B BB 4 Greece BB BBB− 2 Guatemala BB BB− -1 Honduras B+ B+ 0 Hong Kong AA A -3 Hungary BBB BBB+ 1 Iceland A AA− 2 India BBB− BB -2 Indonesia BBB BBB 0 Iraq B− CCC -2 Ireland A+ A+ 1 Isle of Man AA− A -2 Israel A+ A− -2 Italy BBB BBB+ 1 Ivory Coast BB− BB+ 2 Jamaica B+ B+ 0 Japan A+ A+ 0 Jordan B+ B+ 0 Kazakhstan BBB BBB 0 Kenya B BB 3 Kuwait AA− BBB− -6 Kyrgyzstan B BB 3 Laos CCC+ B+ 4 Latvia A A 0 Lebanon D CC 2 Lesotho B B 0 Liechtenstein AAA AA -2 Lithuania A A 0
  • 17. ESG Country Credit Rating P a g e | 17 Country Credit Rating (average of Moody's, S&P, Fitch) Sustainability- Adjusted Rating Level Difference Macedonia BB+ BBB− 1 Malaysia A− BBB+ -1 Maldives B− BB− 4 Mali CCC+ B− 1 Malta A+ A -1 Mauritius BBB BBB+ 1 Mexico BBB BBB 0 Moldova B− BB− 3 Mongolia B B+ 1 Montenegro B+ BB 3 Morocco BB+ BB+ 0 Mozambique CCC+ CCC+ 0 Namibia BB BB 1 Netherlands AAA AA -2 New Zealand AA+ AA -1 Nicaragua B− B+ 2 Niger B− B 1 Nigeria B B 0 Norway AAA AA+ -1 Oman BB− BB− 0 Pakistan B− B− 0 Panama BBB BBB 0 Papua New Guinea B B+ 1 Paraguay BB+ BBB− 1 Peru BBB+ BBB+ 0 Philippines BBB BBB− -1 Poland A A− -1 Portugal BBB A− 2 Puerto Rico D B− 6 Qatar AA− BBB− -6 Republic of the Congo CCC+ B− 1 Romania BBB− BBB+ 2 Russia BBB BBB 1 Rwanda B+ B -1 San Marino BB+ BBB 2 Saudi Arabia A+ BBB -4
  • 18. ESG Country Credit Rating P a g e | 18 Country Credit Rating (average of Moody's, S&P, Fitch) Sustainability- Adjusted Rating Level Difference Senegal BB− BB− 1 Serbia BB+ BBB− 1 Seychelles B+ BB− 1 Singapore AAA AA− -3 Slovakia A A 0 Slovenia A A 1 Solomon Islands CCC+ BB− 4 South Africa BB B+ -2 South Korea AA A+ -2 Spain A− A 1 Sri Lanka CCC+ BB− 4 St Vincent and the Grenadines B− B+ 2 Suriname CCC− B+ 5 Swaziland B− B+ 2 Sweden AAA AAA 0 Switzerland AAA AA+ -1 Taiwan AA n/a #N/A Tajikistan B− BB− 3 Tanzania B B+ 1 Thailand BBB+ BBB -1 Togo B B 1 Trinidad and Tobago BB B+ -2 Tunisia B− B 2 Turkey B+ BB 2 Uganda B B 0 Ukraine B BB 3 United Arab Emirates AA A− -4 United Kingdom AA− AA− 0 USA AAA AA− -3 Uruguay BBB BBB+ 1 Uzbekistan BB− BB 2 Venezuela D B 7 Vietnam BB BB 0 Zambia CC CCC 2
  • 19. ESG Country Credit Rating P a g e | 19 Disclaimer No warranty This publication is derived from sources believed to be accurate and reliable, but neither its accuracy nor completeness is guaranteed. The material and information in this publication are provided "as is" and without warranties of any kind, either expressed or implied. SolAbility disclaims all warranties, expressed or implied, including, but not limited to, implied warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose. Any opinions and views in this publication reflect the current judgment of the authors and may change without notice. It is each reader's responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of any opinions, advice, services or other information provided in this publication. Limitation of liability All information contained in this publication is distributed with the understanding that the authors, publishers and distributors are not rendering legal, accounting or other professional advice or opinions on specific facts or matters and accordingly assume no liability whatsoever in connection with its use. In no event shall SolAbility be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of the use of any opinion or information expressly or implicitly contained in this publication. Copyright Unless otherwise noted, text, images and layout of this publication are the exclusive property of SolAbility. Republication is welcome. No Offer The information and opinions contained in this publication constitutes neither a solicitation, nor a recommendation, nor an offer to buy or sell investment instruments or other services, or to engage in any other kind of transaction. The information described in this publication is not directed to persons in any jurisdiction where the provision of such information would run counter to local laws and regulation.
  • 20. ESG Country Credit Rating P a g e | 20 www.solability.com contact@solability.com The Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index 10th edition 2021 www.solability.com contact@solability.com