The Global Sustainable Competitveness Index 2021SolAbility
The document provides an executive summary of the 2021 State of the World Report. It finds that the average global score on the Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index is 45.3 out of 100, indicating that the state of the world is not in a very good state currently. There is a large gap of 55 between the current global score and a perfect sustainable and competitive world. While trends are positive in some areas like social capital and intellectual capital, there remains a large potential gap to close to achieve a truly green, inclusive and circular global society.
The Global Sustainable Competitiveness Report 2020SolAbility
The Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index evaluates the ability of 180 countries to compete & create wealth for its citizens in global markets without compromising future generations abilty to achieve the same or higher economic, social and environmental wealth levels.
Measuring country-level sustainability and the potential for sustainable development based on 109 quantitative & measurable indicators collected by the World Bank, various UN agencies, the IMF, and OECD
The Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index 2019SolAbility
The true measurment of national competitiveness - a ranking of 180 countries based on 116 quantitative indicators, groupoed in 5 pilars: natural capital, resource intensity, social capital, intellectual captal, and governance.
The rankings are topped by Scandinavian countries, Germany is ranked #15, UK 17, US 34, China 37
The Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index 2013SolaVis
Ranking the World's countries according to their real competitiveness: Sustainable competitiveness is the ability of a country to meet the needs and basic requirements of current generations while sustaining or growing the national and individual wealth into the future without depleting its natural, intellectual and social capital.
The Global Sustainable Competitveness Index 2021SolAbility
The document provides an executive summary of the 2021 State of the World Report. It finds that the average global score on the Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index is 45.3 out of 100, indicating that the state of the world is not in a very good state currently. There is a large gap of 55 between the current global score and a perfect sustainable and competitive world. While trends are positive in some areas like social capital and intellectual capital, there remains a large potential gap to close to achieve a truly green, inclusive and circular global society.
The Global Sustainable Competitiveness Report 2020SolAbility
The Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index evaluates the ability of 180 countries to compete & create wealth for its citizens in global markets without compromising future generations abilty to achieve the same or higher economic, social and environmental wealth levels.
Measuring country-level sustainability and the potential for sustainable development based on 109 quantitative & measurable indicators collected by the World Bank, various UN agencies, the IMF, and OECD
The Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index 2019SolAbility
The true measurment of national competitiveness - a ranking of 180 countries based on 116 quantitative indicators, groupoed in 5 pilars: natural capital, resource intensity, social capital, intellectual captal, and governance.
The rankings are topped by Scandinavian countries, Germany is ranked #15, UK 17, US 34, China 37
The Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index 2013SolaVis
Ranking the World's countries according to their real competitiveness: Sustainable competitiveness is the ability of a country to meet the needs and basic requirements of current generations while sustaining or growing the national and individual wealth into the future without depleting its natural, intellectual and social capital.
This report analyzes venture capital investment in the Denver metro area from 2008 to 2012. Some key findings:
- Total venture capital funding declined sharply from $300 million in early 2008 to a low of $60 million in late 2012 due to the economic downturn, but has begun to recover in recent years.
- Denver ranked 8th among peer cities in deal count and 9th in total funding over this period.
- Funding has shifted towards earlier and later stage businesses, with less at the seed stage due to high risk.
This document is the preface to the 2010 Financial Development Report published by the World Economic Forum. It summarizes the context and goals of the report. Specifically:
1) The report examines financial development issues in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis, focusing on risks to long-term economic growth from less developed financial systems.
2) It aims to help stakeholders prioritize areas of needed financial reform by providing a comprehensive reference on financial development.
3) The report involved input from academics, public figures, NGOs, and business leaders through interviews and collaboration to discuss findings and implications.
The document is the Global Competitiveness Report 2010-2011 published by the World Economic Forum. It provides an overview of the report, which measures competitiveness and analyzes the factors driving productivity and long-term economic growth. The report was produced in collaboration with numerous partner institutes around the world and includes country/economy profiles, data tables, and analyses of issues impacting competitiveness.
This document summarizes a paper that critically examines the "Financing Gap Model" used by international financial institutions like the World Bank and IMF to project growth, investment needs, and financing gaps in developing countries. The paper documents how the Financing Gap Model, based on the Harrod-Domar growth model, is still widely used despite being out of favor in academic literature for decades. The paper then reviews criticisms of the model from alternative growth theories and tests the model's key predictions against empirical data, finding them rejected. Finally, it speculates on why the model has persisted in practice.
TCFD Workshop: Practical steps for implementation – Ian EdwardsMcGuinness Institute
Across Wednesday 16 October and Thursday 17 October 2019, the McGuinness Institute partnered with Simpson Grierson to host two workshops exploring the Recommendations of the TCFD in Auckland and Wellington. This presentation was given by Ian Edwards, a Queensland-based climate change adaptation consultant.
This document proposes establishing a Performance-Based Official Development Assistance (P-BODA) framework (PK-BODAF) to monitor and manage ODA performance. P-BODA would implement ODA based on OECD countries' performance on their 0.7% GDP commitments for aid and on developing countries' progress on human development and poverty reduction. This framework would create knowledge on ODA performance by both donor and recipient countries. The document argues that ODA should be provided primarily as grants rather than loans to reduce indebtedness in developing countries. It also calls for mechanisms to ensure ODA is spent equitably and benefits intended recipients.
Tax Reform and Resource Mobilization for HealthHFG Project
This report examines whether improvements in tax revenue performance due to tax administration reform result in increases in available government funds that benefit the health sector and the conditions that facilitate greater allocations toward health spending.
New BCG report on Global Wealth trends
Source:
https://www.bcgperspectives.com/content/articles/financial_institutions_business_unit_strategy_global_wealth_2014_riding_wave_growth
The document summarizes a research paper that examines the causal effect of foreign aid on economic growth. It uses a quasi-experimental research design exploiting the income threshold used by the International Development Association (IDA) to determine aid eligibility. The study finds that crossing the IDA income threshold from below causes a significant reduction in total aid received on average. Analyzing 35 countries that crossed the threshold between 1987 and 2010, the study finds that a 1 percentage point increase in aid as a share of national income leads to an approximate 0.35 percentage point increase in annual per capita GDP growth. This effect is larger than past studies and suggests foreign aid has a statistically and economically significant positive impact on growth.
Remittance levels and entrepreneurial activity in post soviet countriesAzer Dilanchiev
ABSTRACT Each individual entrepreneurial action has a more than proportional impact on economic growth, however less
works are dedicated to investigate the impact of the remittance on entrepreneurial activity. This paper examines the impact of
remittance level on entrepreneurial activity in 14 post-soviet countries over the period of 2006-2016. Panel data is employed
to analyze the impact of remittance on entrepreneurial activity. Study found statistically significant impact of remittance on
entrepreneurial activity for the post-Soviet countries in the sample.
Connected success The Future of the Socially Valued Organisation - Full ver...Tim Jones
This document summarizes the findings from a foresight program that explored how organizations can address future social needs. It identifies three main challenges society will face by 2020: increased environmental stresses due to resource constraints and climate change, increased societal stresses from issues like rising inequality and unemployment, and a changing business environment with blurred organizational boundaries. The document presents four scenarios for how goals may be set and growth defined at a global level by 2020 and considers the implications for organizations.
Effect of Earnings Management on Bankruptcy Predicting Model Evidence from Ni...ijtsrd
This study examined the effect of earnings management on bankruptcy risk among deposit money banks listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange. Specifically, it analyzed the effect of debt covenant on bankruptcy risk, and whether bank size and age moderate the effect of earnings management incentives (income smoothing, executive compensation, tax planning, debt covenant) on bankruptcy risk. The study found that debt covenant had an inverse significant effect on bankruptcy risk, implying that violations of debt covenant do not strongly influence bankruptcy risk. It also found that bank size moderates the effect of earnings management incentives on bankruptcy risk, meaning the impact depends on company size. However, bank age was found to have no significant moderating effect.
Deal market digest issue 88_22march 2013CAR FOR YOU
The Dealmarket Digest provides concise summaries of private equity news and trends. This week's issue highlights that global private equity deal value more than tripled in February due to two large transactions. It also reports that private equity deals in Israel declined 10% in 2012 due to fewer high tech deals. Additionally, the issue summarizes surveys finding that family offices remain positive on private equity and that European venture philanthropy organizations are increasingly focusing on social enterprises.
This document introduces a new Global Financial Development Database that benchmarks the financial systems of 205 economies from 1960 to 2010. The database measures four characteristics of financial institutions and markets: (1) size (financial depth), (2) access, (3) efficiency, and (4) stability. It uses these measures to characterize and compare financial systems across countries and over time, as well as examine the relationship between financial systems and policies. The analysis presented in the database and document provide an empirical framework for describing the multi-dimensional nature of financial systems around the world.
IRJET - Impact of Large Infrastructure Project on Local EconomyIRJET Journal
This document discusses the impact of large infrastructure projects on local economies. It provides context on India's rapid economic growth and the government's focus on infrastructure development to support growth. The paper aims to study how major infrastructure projects in Balewadi, Pune have spatially impacted the surrounding area in terms of urban form changes and the real estate market. It outlines the methodology, which includes surveys and analysis of primary data on housing, occupations, rents, and secondary data from reports. The document also provides background on Pune's infrastructure developments like the Bus Rapid Transit System expansion and discusses the relationships between transportation, urban structure, land use and land economics.
This document summarizes a research paper that investigates how changes in industries' funding costs affect total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Using panel data from 31 US and Canadian industries between 1991 and 2007, the paper finds that increases in the cost of funds have a statistically significant negative impact on TFP growth. However, this effect is non-monotonic, with industries of intermediate dependence on external finance being most impacted. A theoretical model is presented that produces this non-monotonic relationship. The findings suggest that financial shocks distort the allocation of factors between firms within an industry, reducing overall TFP growth.
The document outlines an agenda for a development meeting for chairpersons and deputies at Parliament. The agenda includes presentations from James Picker, Wendy McGuinness, and Roger Dennis on various topics, as well as a discussion period. Wendy McGuinness' presentation focuses on foresight in New Zealand since 1976 and long-term insights briefings. It discusses stress testing the briefings and why they might fail. Roger Dennis' presentation focuses on helping leaders make sense of a fast-changing world. A survey was conducted on the briefings and results will be discussed.
DealMarket DIGEST Issue 105 // 23 August 2013CAR FOR YOU
Global private equity deal value declined for the second consecutive month in July due to a lack of large transactions. A new study suggests fund performance can be predicted after three years based on the distinctive "J-curve" pattern of cash flows. Returns for private equity funds increased in 2013 with buyout funds achieving the highest annualized returns. Private equity appetite for technology deals increased in the second quarter driven by lower company valuations and available financing. European M&A activity continued to slow in the second quarter with the largest declines in the energy and healthcare sectors.
This Credit Suisse Emerging Consumer Survey Databook provides granular detail of the market research that underpins the conclusions and themes highlighted in the Credit Suisse Emerging Consumer Survey 2012, a comprehensive and exclusive study of the consumption patterns and plans of individuals residing in eight key economies across the emerging world. Specifically, the markets we have incorporated in this survey are China, India, Brazil, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Indonesia and Turkey. In total, these markets account for over 3.3 billion people.
- Download the 2012 Emerging Consumer Survey Databook (PDF): http://bit.ly/1durZ4B
- Order the print version of the databook: http://bit.ly/1mwfKre
- Visit the Credit Suisse Research Institute website: http://bit.ly/18Cxa0p
The Global Sustainable Competitiveness IndexSolAbility
The Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index ranks 176 countries against their capabilities to create and sustain sustainable wealth based on 72 data indicators
We develop an ordered logit model to examine the dynamic evolution of the credit rating of Greek Government Bonds under various macroeconomic scenarios
Political risk, ESG and market performance - March 2014Damian Karmelich
As the ASX releases new corporate governance guidelines with an increased focus on risk management and environmental, social and governance principles Political Monitor examines the link between ESG, political risk & market performance.
This report analyzes venture capital investment in the Denver metro area from 2008 to 2012. Some key findings:
- Total venture capital funding declined sharply from $300 million in early 2008 to a low of $60 million in late 2012 due to the economic downturn, but has begun to recover in recent years.
- Denver ranked 8th among peer cities in deal count and 9th in total funding over this period.
- Funding has shifted towards earlier and later stage businesses, with less at the seed stage due to high risk.
This document is the preface to the 2010 Financial Development Report published by the World Economic Forum. It summarizes the context and goals of the report. Specifically:
1) The report examines financial development issues in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis, focusing on risks to long-term economic growth from less developed financial systems.
2) It aims to help stakeholders prioritize areas of needed financial reform by providing a comprehensive reference on financial development.
3) The report involved input from academics, public figures, NGOs, and business leaders through interviews and collaboration to discuss findings and implications.
The document is the Global Competitiveness Report 2010-2011 published by the World Economic Forum. It provides an overview of the report, which measures competitiveness and analyzes the factors driving productivity and long-term economic growth. The report was produced in collaboration with numerous partner institutes around the world and includes country/economy profiles, data tables, and analyses of issues impacting competitiveness.
This document summarizes a paper that critically examines the "Financing Gap Model" used by international financial institutions like the World Bank and IMF to project growth, investment needs, and financing gaps in developing countries. The paper documents how the Financing Gap Model, based on the Harrod-Domar growth model, is still widely used despite being out of favor in academic literature for decades. The paper then reviews criticisms of the model from alternative growth theories and tests the model's key predictions against empirical data, finding them rejected. Finally, it speculates on why the model has persisted in practice.
TCFD Workshop: Practical steps for implementation – Ian EdwardsMcGuinness Institute
Across Wednesday 16 October and Thursday 17 October 2019, the McGuinness Institute partnered with Simpson Grierson to host two workshops exploring the Recommendations of the TCFD in Auckland and Wellington. This presentation was given by Ian Edwards, a Queensland-based climate change adaptation consultant.
This document proposes establishing a Performance-Based Official Development Assistance (P-BODA) framework (PK-BODAF) to monitor and manage ODA performance. P-BODA would implement ODA based on OECD countries' performance on their 0.7% GDP commitments for aid and on developing countries' progress on human development and poverty reduction. This framework would create knowledge on ODA performance by both donor and recipient countries. The document argues that ODA should be provided primarily as grants rather than loans to reduce indebtedness in developing countries. It also calls for mechanisms to ensure ODA is spent equitably and benefits intended recipients.
Tax Reform and Resource Mobilization for HealthHFG Project
This report examines whether improvements in tax revenue performance due to tax administration reform result in increases in available government funds that benefit the health sector and the conditions that facilitate greater allocations toward health spending.
New BCG report on Global Wealth trends
Source:
https://www.bcgperspectives.com/content/articles/financial_institutions_business_unit_strategy_global_wealth_2014_riding_wave_growth
The document summarizes a research paper that examines the causal effect of foreign aid on economic growth. It uses a quasi-experimental research design exploiting the income threshold used by the International Development Association (IDA) to determine aid eligibility. The study finds that crossing the IDA income threshold from below causes a significant reduction in total aid received on average. Analyzing 35 countries that crossed the threshold between 1987 and 2010, the study finds that a 1 percentage point increase in aid as a share of national income leads to an approximate 0.35 percentage point increase in annual per capita GDP growth. This effect is larger than past studies and suggests foreign aid has a statistically and economically significant positive impact on growth.
Remittance levels and entrepreneurial activity in post soviet countriesAzer Dilanchiev
ABSTRACT Each individual entrepreneurial action has a more than proportional impact on economic growth, however less
works are dedicated to investigate the impact of the remittance on entrepreneurial activity. This paper examines the impact of
remittance level on entrepreneurial activity in 14 post-soviet countries over the period of 2006-2016. Panel data is employed
to analyze the impact of remittance on entrepreneurial activity. Study found statistically significant impact of remittance on
entrepreneurial activity for the post-Soviet countries in the sample.
Connected success The Future of the Socially Valued Organisation - Full ver...Tim Jones
This document summarizes the findings from a foresight program that explored how organizations can address future social needs. It identifies three main challenges society will face by 2020: increased environmental stresses due to resource constraints and climate change, increased societal stresses from issues like rising inequality and unemployment, and a changing business environment with blurred organizational boundaries. The document presents four scenarios for how goals may be set and growth defined at a global level by 2020 and considers the implications for organizations.
Effect of Earnings Management on Bankruptcy Predicting Model Evidence from Ni...ijtsrd
This study examined the effect of earnings management on bankruptcy risk among deposit money banks listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange. Specifically, it analyzed the effect of debt covenant on bankruptcy risk, and whether bank size and age moderate the effect of earnings management incentives (income smoothing, executive compensation, tax planning, debt covenant) on bankruptcy risk. The study found that debt covenant had an inverse significant effect on bankruptcy risk, implying that violations of debt covenant do not strongly influence bankruptcy risk. It also found that bank size moderates the effect of earnings management incentives on bankruptcy risk, meaning the impact depends on company size. However, bank age was found to have no significant moderating effect.
Deal market digest issue 88_22march 2013CAR FOR YOU
The Dealmarket Digest provides concise summaries of private equity news and trends. This week's issue highlights that global private equity deal value more than tripled in February due to two large transactions. It also reports that private equity deals in Israel declined 10% in 2012 due to fewer high tech deals. Additionally, the issue summarizes surveys finding that family offices remain positive on private equity and that European venture philanthropy organizations are increasingly focusing on social enterprises.
This document introduces a new Global Financial Development Database that benchmarks the financial systems of 205 economies from 1960 to 2010. The database measures four characteristics of financial institutions and markets: (1) size (financial depth), (2) access, (3) efficiency, and (4) stability. It uses these measures to characterize and compare financial systems across countries and over time, as well as examine the relationship between financial systems and policies. The analysis presented in the database and document provide an empirical framework for describing the multi-dimensional nature of financial systems around the world.
IRJET - Impact of Large Infrastructure Project on Local EconomyIRJET Journal
This document discusses the impact of large infrastructure projects on local economies. It provides context on India's rapid economic growth and the government's focus on infrastructure development to support growth. The paper aims to study how major infrastructure projects in Balewadi, Pune have spatially impacted the surrounding area in terms of urban form changes and the real estate market. It outlines the methodology, which includes surveys and analysis of primary data on housing, occupations, rents, and secondary data from reports. The document also provides background on Pune's infrastructure developments like the Bus Rapid Transit System expansion and discusses the relationships between transportation, urban structure, land use and land economics.
This document summarizes a research paper that investigates how changes in industries' funding costs affect total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Using panel data from 31 US and Canadian industries between 1991 and 2007, the paper finds that increases in the cost of funds have a statistically significant negative impact on TFP growth. However, this effect is non-monotonic, with industries of intermediate dependence on external finance being most impacted. A theoretical model is presented that produces this non-monotonic relationship. The findings suggest that financial shocks distort the allocation of factors between firms within an industry, reducing overall TFP growth.
The document outlines an agenda for a development meeting for chairpersons and deputies at Parliament. The agenda includes presentations from James Picker, Wendy McGuinness, and Roger Dennis on various topics, as well as a discussion period. Wendy McGuinness' presentation focuses on foresight in New Zealand since 1976 and long-term insights briefings. It discusses stress testing the briefings and why they might fail. Roger Dennis' presentation focuses on helping leaders make sense of a fast-changing world. A survey was conducted on the briefings and results will be discussed.
DealMarket DIGEST Issue 105 // 23 August 2013CAR FOR YOU
Global private equity deal value declined for the second consecutive month in July due to a lack of large transactions. A new study suggests fund performance can be predicted after three years based on the distinctive "J-curve" pattern of cash flows. Returns for private equity funds increased in 2013 with buyout funds achieving the highest annualized returns. Private equity appetite for technology deals increased in the second quarter driven by lower company valuations and available financing. European M&A activity continued to slow in the second quarter with the largest declines in the energy and healthcare sectors.
This Credit Suisse Emerging Consumer Survey Databook provides granular detail of the market research that underpins the conclusions and themes highlighted in the Credit Suisse Emerging Consumer Survey 2012, a comprehensive and exclusive study of the consumption patterns and plans of individuals residing in eight key economies across the emerging world. Specifically, the markets we have incorporated in this survey are China, India, Brazil, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Indonesia and Turkey. In total, these markets account for over 3.3 billion people.
- Download the 2012 Emerging Consumer Survey Databook (PDF): http://bit.ly/1durZ4B
- Order the print version of the databook: http://bit.ly/1mwfKre
- Visit the Credit Suisse Research Institute website: http://bit.ly/18Cxa0p
The Global Sustainable Competitiveness IndexSolAbility
The Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index ranks 176 countries against their capabilities to create and sustain sustainable wealth based on 72 data indicators
We develop an ordered logit model to examine the dynamic evolution of the credit rating of Greek Government Bonds under various macroeconomic scenarios
Political risk, ESG and market performance - March 2014Damian Karmelich
As the ASX releases new corporate governance guidelines with an increased focus on risk management and environmental, social and governance principles Political Monitor examines the link between ESG, political risk & market performance.
Regulatory capital requirements pose a major challenge for financial institutions today.
As the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and rapid development of credit risk management revealed many shortcomings and loop holes in measuring capital charges under Basel I, Basel II was issued in 2004 with the sole intent of improving international convergence of capital measurement and capital standards.
This paper introduces Basel II, the construction of risk weight functions and their limits in two sections:
In the first, basic fundamentals are presented to better understand these prerequisites: the likelihood of losses, expected and unexpected loss, Value at Risk, and regulatory capital. Then we discuss the founding principles of the regulatory formula for risk weight functions and how it works.
The latter section is dedicated to studying the different parameters of risk weight functions, in order to discuss their limits, modifications and impacts on the regulatory capital charge coefficient.
Basel II IRB Risk Weight Functions : Demonstration and AnalysisGenest Benoit
This paper introduces Basel II, the construction of risk weight functions and their limits in two sections:
In the first, basic fundamentals are presented to better understand these prerequisites: the likelihood of losses, expected and unexpected loss, Value at Risk, and regulatory capital.
Then we discuss the founding principles of the regulatory formula for risk weight functions and how it works.
The latter section is dedicated to studying the different parameters of risk weight
functions, in order to discuss their limits, modifications and impacts on the regulatory capital charge coefficient.
The document discusses CDO rating methodologies used by rating agencies. It compares two main approaches: [1] Moody's binomial expansion technique (BET) which uses a diversity score to simplify a portfolio, and [2] Monte Carlo simulation which models random defaults. The BET is faster but less accurate while Monte Carlo simulation provides more accurate loss distributions but takes longer to run. The document explores how differences in methodology, such as correlation assumptions, can impact ratings of senior CDO tranches and discusses potential model risk for investors.
The document discusses several financial and economic terms:
1) Systemically important financial institutions are large banks or institutions whose failure could threaten the entire financial system.
2) Leading economic indicators predict future trends, while lagging indicators show past trends. The leading index and GDP are examples.
3) Fixed income obligation to income ratio (FOIR) is a debt-to-income ratio used by banks to determine loan eligibility based on monthly payments.
Only one year after its creation, the GRA team has been completely transformed. Surpassing all of the original ambitions, the team now stretches over three zones (Europe, Asia and the US) and continues to grow.
Our philosophy is distinctly influenced by the gratification of working together on subject matter which daily fascinates and inspires us. It also conveys the richness of our exchanges, as we collaborate with several practitioners and enthusiasts.
This document has no other purpose than to bring some responsive elements to the questions we face constantly, reminding us also to practice patience and humility - for many answers are possible, and the path of discovery stretches out long before us...”
Peer-to-peer lending companies provide online platforms that can quickly pair borrowers seeking a loan with investors willing to fund the loan at an attractive rate. Since these loans are unsecured and companies creating the market generally do not invest their own capital, neither borrowers nor companies assume any risk. Entire credit risk is born by investors. Literature shows that credit risk depends upon borrower characteristics, loan terms and regional macroeconomic factors. To help investors identify unsecured loans likely to be fully paid, a machine learning algorithm was developed to forecast probability of full payment and probability of default.
Training and input data consisted of historic loans’ data from Lending Club and state level macroeconomic data from government and organizational sources. A logistic regression was
shown to provide optimal results, effectively sequestering high risk loans.
Team Members:
Archange Giscard Destine
ad1373@georgetown.edu
linkedin.com/in/agdestine
Steven L. Lerner
sll93@georgetown.edu
linkedin.com/in/sllerner
Erblin Mehmetaj
em1109@georgetown.edu
www.linkedin.com/in/erblinmehmetaj
Hetal Shah
hrs41@georgetown.edu
linkedin.com/in/hetalshah
This document discusses the importance of credit discipline for borrowers and differences between how banks and credit rating agencies define default. It notes that credit rating agencies use a more stringent definition of default as even a single missed payment, while banks typically designate an account as non-performing only after 90 days of missed payments. The document argues that a more stringent definition of default aligned with global standards benefits borrowers as they seek diverse sources of funding. Adopting international credit discipline standards helps borrowers access global capital markets and improves their creditworthiness over time.
CDFIs Stepping Into the Breach: An Impact Evaluation Summary Reportnc_initiative
This report summarizes research undertaken by the Carsey School of Public Policy to evaluate impacts of the Community Development Financial Institutions (CDFI) Fund on CDFIs and of the CDFI industry on the people and communities it serves.
Current Write-off Rates and Q-factors in Roll-rate MethodGraceCooper18
The document provides information on current expected credit loss (CECL) standards and the roll-rate method for estimating credit losses. It discusses write-off rates, qualitative factors (Q-factors), and how the roll-rate method uses historical loss data and Q-factors to project future losses. It also summarizes CECL Express, a turnkey solution that can help financial institutions meet CECL requirements, and introduces GreenPoint Financial and its leaders.
Greek Sovereign Bonds: On the verge of regaining investment grade status by 2020Ilias Lekkos
Given our special interest in the Greek economy, we are able to identify a wide gap between our model-implied rating for Greece vis-à-vis Moody’s. In particular, Moody’s currently rates Greece in the Caa category while according to our model Greece has a 40% chance of being in the Ba range and a 37% chance of being a B rated credit. This “massive” distance between model-implied and Moody’s ratings serves only to highlight how much qualitative factors are holding back Greece’s official ratings.
Redefining Value, Moving Markets: The Future of Sustainability RatingsSustainable Brands
This document discusses the future of sustainability ratings and the Global Initiative for Sustainability Ratings (GISR) standard. It notes that while sustainability metrics have grown more voluminous, they remain fragmented and lack transparency. GISR aims to develop a standard that increases the credibility, quality and impact of sustainability ratings. The standard will focus ratings on material issues, balance transparency with commercial interests, and help integrate sustainability into financial decision making. GISR's goal is to redefine how companies create long-term value and move markets towards sustainability by 2020.
ASSET ALLOCATION AND DIVERSIFICATION STRATEGIES:KEY FACTORS TO CONSIDER - Ste...IFG Network marcus evans
Presentation delivered by Keynote Speaker Steven Skancke, Chief Investment Officer, KEEL POINT ADVISORS at the IFG Wealth Management Forum Spring 2016 held in Scottsdale AZ
The Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index is the most comprehensive global ranking of the competitiveness of individual nation-economies in the present and into the future
- Bladex reported record credit book size of $8.7 billion in 2Q22, up 3% quarter-over-quarter and 33% year-over-year, driven by implementation of its new strategic plan to substantially expand its customer and product base.
- Net income increased 107% quarter-over-quarter and 63% year-over-year to $23 million in 2Q22, with return on equity expanding to 9.1% due to improved efficiency and net interest income growth.
- Asset quality remained stable with non-performing loans at 0.2% as Bladex shifted more of its portfolio to medium-term loans while preserving sound credit quality.
Moody's downgrades Noble Group to Ba1; outlook negativeGE 94
Moody's downgraded Noble Group's ratings to Ba1 from Baa3 due to concerns over the company's liquidity and low profitability. While Noble plans to improve its liquidity through asset sales and cost cuts, Moody's views Noble's liquidity position as still constrained and expects challenges to consistent access to bond markets, characteristics more consistent with Ba-rated entities. The negative outlook reflects execution risk in Noble's plans and uncertainty from low commodity prices.
The document provides an economic update for Sri Lanka with the following key points:
- Commercial Bank was ranked the third most valuable brand in Sri Lanka and the highest ranked private sector brand, with a brand value of Rs 22.32 billion.
- Commercial Bank partnered with the European Investment Bank to provide financing under a SME Green Energy Credit Line for projects including SMEs, energy efficiency and renewable energy.
- The financial sector consolidation process in Sri Lanka is on track, with nine audit firms selected to evaluate banks and NBFIs and all institutions submitting merger and acquisition proposals by the March 31st deadline.
- Fitch affirmed Sri Lanka's long-term foreign currency issuer default rating at '
The Natural Capital Index 2021 is topped by Laos. Countries in South America and Scandinavia also score highly due to factors like abundant water availability, humid climates, and natural resource deposits. Regional spreads find South America has the highest Natural Capital, followed by Scandinavia and North America. The global average Natural Capital score is 45.2 out of 100, indicating stress on natural resources worldwide. Many indicators show deteriorating trends, threatening further declines without meaningful environmental protection policies.
The document proposes 12 key points for more sustainable and prosperous societies, including implementing a global climate tax, increasing democracy through referendums, improving governance systems, ensuring quality education and healthcare for all, regulating financial markets, achieving total equality, and establishing independent and impartial sources of information. It argues that sustainability and competitiveness are the same goal and can be achieved through management approaches that identify risks, costs, and benefits to maximize opportunities while minimizing threats. A Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index is suggested to measure success.
Global Climate Tax: Feasibility EvaluationSolAbility
The most effective way to reduce GHGs to Zero - a global climate tax. Starting at U$50 per ton of CO2 equivalent , increasing by U$50 every year. 50% of tax revenues are redistributed in cash to each individual, the other 50% used to buld a renewable energy infrastructure
The Sustainable Competitiveness Index 2015SolAbility
The sustainable competitiveness index compares countries based on the availability of natural capital, their capability in resource management, social cohesion, intellectual property, and governance.
The ratings can be used as alternative to the GDP or sovereign bond ratings
What gets measured gets done sustainability implementationSolAbility
From the makers of 3 DJSI Super-sector Leaders
This document provides guidance on integrating corporate sustainability through a structured approach. It discusses key success factors such as having a clear vision, following a structured process, fully integrating sustainability into management systems, and maintaining a bottom-line focus. The document outlines a 4-stage implementation cycle of understanding issues, developing goals and tools, implementation, and tracking performance. It provides examples of analysis and project management tools that can support sustainability integration. Overall, the document advocates for taking an analytical, structured approach to sustainability that is focused on tangible business benefits.
The Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index 2014SolAbility
This document provides information about the Sustainable Competitiveness Index, which ranks countries based on their performance across five pillars of sustainable competitiveness: natural capital, social capital, intellectual capital, resource management, and governance. It summarizes the methodology, key findings, and rankings. The top-ranked countries tend to be wealthy Northern European nations, while large emerging economies like China, India, and Russia are lower ranked. Higher scores on the index are generally correlated with higher GDP per capita.
Sustainability in Korea: Performance & Trends 2013SolAbility
This document discusses corporate sustainability and governance issues in Korea in 2013. It provides an overview of trends showing increasing management awareness of sustainability but stagnating governance practices. Financial returns for sustainable companies significantly outperformed the market. The document also analyzes issues around controlling family structures ("Chaebols") of large Korean conglomerates that concentrate power and hamper independent oversight.
Climate Change, Energy, & Businesses - Quantifying the Financial Implications...SolAbility
Climate change is a reality. The political failure to direct the global energy infrastructure to an alternative system away from fossil fuels will lad to significantly higher energy costs to businesses.
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The document presents findings from SolAbility's 5th annual sustainability assessment of Korean companies. It shows that companies with higher sustainability scores as measured by SolAbility's methodology have consistently outperformed market benchmarks over 3 and 5 year periods, demonstrating that sustainable investing can achieve superior long-term financial returns. The methodology focuses on evaluating actual sustainability performance and impacts rather than reporting, in order to best predict business success.
SolAbility conducted an ESG analysis of Korean companies from 2007-2009. They found that the 50 most sustainable companies significantly outperformed the market, returning 397% compared to 128% for the index. Average sustainability scores improved across economic, environmental and social criteria as management systems advanced. However, performance remained lower for environmental issues compared to economic and social factors. Electronic companies showed higher sustainability than sectors catering primarily to domestic markets.
ESG research and corporate sustainability assessment proof the correlation between sustainable management integration and superior financial performance
Fabular Frames and the Four Ratio ProblemMajid Iqbal
Digital, interactive art showing the struggle of a society in providing for its present population while also saving planetary resources for future generations. Spread across several frames, the art is actually the rendering of real and speculative data. The stereographic projections change shape in response to prompts and provocations. Visitors interact with the model through speculative statements about how to increase savings across communities, regions, ecosystems and environments. Their fabulations combined with random noise, i.e. factors beyond control, have a dramatic effect on the societal transition. Things get better. Things get worse. The aim is to give visitors a new grasp and feel of the ongoing struggles in democracies around the world.
Stunning art in the small multiples format brings out the spatiotemporal nature of societal transitions, against backdrop issues such as energy, housing, waste, farmland and forest. In each frame we see hopeful and frightful interplays between spending and saving. Problems emerge when one of the two parts of the existential anaglyph rapidly shrinks like Arctic ice, as factors cross thresholds. Ecological wealth and intergenerational equity areFour at stake. Not enough spending could mean economic stress, social unrest and political conflict. Not enough saving and there will be climate breakdown and ‘bankruptcy’. So where does speculative design start and the gambling and betting end? Behind each fabular frame is a four ratio problem. Each ratio reflects the level of sacrifice and self-restraint a society is willing to accept, against promises of prosperity and freedom. Some values seem to stabilise a frame while others cause collapse. Get the ratios right and we can have it all. Get them wrong and things get more desperate.
In a tight labour market, job-seekers gain bargaining power and leverage it into greater job quality—at least, that’s the conventional wisdom.
Michael, LMIC Economist, presented findings that reveal a weakened relationship between labour market tightness and job quality indicators following the pandemic. Labour market tightness coincided with growth in real wages for only a portion of workers: those in low-wage jobs requiring little education. Several factors—including labour market composition, worker and employer behaviour, and labour market practices—have contributed to the absence of worker benefits. These will be investigated further in future work.
Madhya Pradesh, the "Heart of India," boasts a rich tapestry of culture and heritage, from ancient dynasties to modern developments. Explore its land records, historical landmarks, and vibrant traditions. From agricultural expanses to urban growth, Madhya Pradesh offers a unique blend of the ancient and modern.
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
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The Rise and Fall of Ponzi Schemes in America.pptxDiana Rose
Ponzi schemes, a notorious form of financial fraud, have plagued America’s investment landscape for decades. Named after Charles Ponzi, who orchestrated one of the most infamous schemes in the early 20th century, these fraudulent operations promise high returns with little or no risk, only to collapse and leave investors with significant losses. This article explores the nature of Ponzi schemes, notable cases in American history, their impact on victims, and measures to prevent falling prey to such scams.
Understanding Ponzi Schemes
A Ponzi scheme is an investment scam where returns are paid to earlier investors using the capital from newer investors, rather than from legitimate profit earned. The scheme relies on a constant influx of new investments to continue paying the promised returns. Eventually, when the flow of new money slows down or stops, the scheme collapses, leaving the majority of investors with substantial financial losses.
Historical Context: Charles Ponzi and His Legacy
Charles Ponzi is the namesake of this deceptive practice. In the 1920s, Ponzi promised investors in Boston a 50% return within 45 days or 100% return in 90 days through arbitrage of international reply coupons. Initially, he paid returns as promised, not from profits, but from the investments of new participants. When his scheme unraveled, it resulted in losses exceeding $20 million (equivalent to about $270 million today).
Notable American Ponzi Schemes
1. Bernie Madoff: Perhaps the most notorious Ponzi scheme in recent history, Bernie Madoff’s fraud involved $65 billion. Madoff, a well-respected figure in the financial industry, promised steady, high returns through a secretive investment strategy. His scheme lasted for decades before collapsing in 2008, devastating thousands of investors, including individuals, charities, and institutional clients.
2. Allen Stanford: Through his company, Stanford Financial Group, Allen Stanford orchestrated a $7 billion Ponzi scheme, luring investors with fraudulent certificates of deposit issued by his offshore bank. Stanford promised high returns and lavish lifestyle benefits to his investors, which ultimately led to a 110-year prison sentence for the financier in 2012.
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https://36crypto.com/the-future-of-dogecoin-how-high-can-this-cryptocurrency-reach/
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Contributors included:
Jo Blanden, Professor in Economics, University of Surrey
Clive Bolton, CEO, Life Insurance M&G Plc
Jim Boyd, CEO, Equity Release Council
Molly Broome, Economist, Resolution Foundation
Nida Broughton, Co-Director of Economic Policy, Behavioural Insights Team
Jonathan Cribb, Associate Director and Head of Retirement, Savings, and Ageing, Institute for Fiscal Studies
Joanna Elson CBE, Chief Executive Officer, Independent Age
Tom Evans, Managing Director of Retirement, Canada Life
Steve Groves, Chair, Key Retirement Group
Tish Hanifan, Founder and Joint Chair of the Society of Later life Advisers
Sue Lewis, ILC Trustee
Siobhan Lough, Senior Consultant, Hymans Robertson
Mick McAteer, Co-Director, The Financial Inclusion Centre
Stuart McDonald MBE, Head of Longevity and Democratic Insights, LCP
Anusha Mittal, Managing Director, Individual Life and Pensions, M&G Life
Shelley Morris, Senior Project Manager, Living Pension, Living Wage Foundation
Sarah O'Grady, Journalist
Will Sherlock, Head of External Relations, M&G Plc
Daniela Silcock, Head of Policy Research, Pensions Policy Institute
David Sinclair, Chief Executive, ILC
Jordi Skilbeck, Senior Policy Advisor, Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association
Rt Hon Sir Stephen Timms, former Chair, Work & Pensions Committee
Nigel Waterson, ILC Trustee
Jackie Wells, Strategy and Policy Consultant, ILC Strategic Advisory Board
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3. ESG Country Credit Rating
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Table of Contents
1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................. 4
2 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................ 5
2.1 THE NEGATIVE CIRCLE CAUSED BY CREDIT RATINGS DEVELOPING NATIONS .................. 5
2.2 INSUFFICIENT RISK COVERAGE IN CURRENT SOVEREIGN RATINGS............................... 6
3 ESG VS. CONVENTIONAL CREDIT RATING....................................................... 7
3.1 RATING CRITERIA: SOVEREIGN BOND RATINGS VS. GSCI........................................... 7
3.1.1 SOVEREIGN BOND RATINGS ................................................................................... 7
3.1.2 MODEL COMPARISON........................................................................................... 8
3.1.3 CRITERIA COMPARISON: CONVENTIONAL RATINGS VS. SUSTAINABILITY RATING ............... 9
3.1.4 EMPIRIC CORRELATIONS: CONVENTIONAL & SUSTAINABLE RATINGS, GDP...................10
3.2 SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN RATINGS............................................................... 11
3.3 SUSTAINABILITY-ADJUSTED RATING DIFFERENCES WORLD MAP ................................ 12
4 IMPLICATIONS & CONCLUSIONS.................................................................. 13
4.1 IMPLICATIONS ............................................................................................. 13
4.2 CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................. 14
5 COUNTRY LIST: SOVEREIGN BONDS VS. SUSTAINABLE ADJUSTED RATINGS... 15
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1 Executive Summary
For the purpose of this report, a fictional ESG credit rating based on the Global
Sustainable Competitiveness Index was compared to the currently used
conventional credit ratings as published by the big rating agencies – Moody’s
S&P, and Fitch. The comparison shows significant differences:
• ESG-adjusted ratings and conventional ratings show significant
differences. Under a sustainability-adjusted credit rating,
countries with high reliance on exploitation of natural resources
would be rated lower, while some of the lesser developed
countries with a healthy fundament (biodiversity, education,
governance) would receive higher ratings.
• Sovereign bond ratings do not sufficiently reflect the non-
tangible risks and opportunities associated with specific nation-
economies
• Sovereign bond ratings show a high correlation to GDP/capita
levels. Poor countries are due higher interest rates than rich
countries.
• Sovereign bond ratings can in facilitate a negative circularity:
bad credit ratings lead to higher cost of capital and debt
servicing, which in turn led to bad credit rating.
Sovereign bond ratings, which define interest rates that countries have to pay
on credits, loans and debt – still do not sufficiently integrate ESG considerations,
despite recent exploration of the ESG theme by the large rating agencies.
“Social and environmental aspects are considered too weak” in influencing
government capability and willingness to meet financial demands. However –
it can be argued that the contrary is the case: conventional sovereign credit
ratings fail to identify and do not sufficiently reflect risks AND opportunities
inherited in the specifics of each country.
ESG Sovereign Bond Rating
Current Rating > ESG
ESG = Current Rating
ESG Rating > Current
Current ratings of the Middle East, but
also the US, China and India seem
unrealistically high.
The current ratings for some of the
lesser developed countries is too low.
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2 Introduction
2.1 The Negative Circle Caused by Credit Ratings
Developing Nations
Credit rating define the interest a country has to pay on loans, state bonds –
and therefore have a huge impact on the investment freedom as well as
capital cost of a country. It is therefore a very important parameter for every
economy – it defines the level of capital cost for new investments (whatever
the nature of those investment may be), and the level of debt servicing. Debt
servicing accounts for a significant part of state revenues in the heavily
indebted countries. On the other side of the equitation, credit ratings also
affect the risks an investor is willing to take in overseas investments.
Sovereign risk ratings are calculated by a number of rating agencies, most
notable by the “three sisters”: Moody’s S&P, and Fitch. The ratings of these
three players therefore have an immense impact on the cost of capital of a
specific country.
Conventional credit ratings are calculated based on a mix of economic,
political and financial risks – i.e. current risks. However, current risks - like GDP -
do not do not reflect the framework that creates the current situation.
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2.2 Insufficient Risk Coverage in Current Sovereign Ratings
The rating methodologies tend to focus on current fiscal, financial,
governance and ideological risks. This can lead to a negative (or positive)
cycle: Bad credit rating leads to higher cost of capital and higher debt burden.
Higher debt and debt servicing obligations in turn leads to bad credit rating,
or vice-versa in the case of wealthier nations with sound state revenues and
budgets. Low credit rating therefore is a double punishment, in particular for
the developing nations.
Credit ratings do not look at or consider the underlying fundamentals – the
ability and motivation of the workforce, the health and well-being and the
social fabric of a society, the physical environment (natural and man-made),
resource usage and efficiency, or school indicators – the sum of which
determines a nations competitiveness going forward. Credit ratings describe
the symptoms, but they do not reflect the root causes. It is therefore
questionable whether credit ratings truly reflect all investment risks associated
with a specific country.
The Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index is based on quantitative (i.e.
subjective) indicators. It takes into account not only the financial value of the
economic output, but also the state of the country in terms of natural capital,
resource intensity, education and innovation level, and governance
performance indicators. The GSCI measures the performance of what makes
the outcome.
The GSCI is calculated based on 131 measurable quantitative indicators,
normalised by relevant measurements, evaluating both the latest
performance as well as the performance (trend) over time of the indicator. For
further information on the GSCI and its methodology, please refer to the GSCI
website.
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3 ESG vs. Conventional Credit Rating
In order to test sovereign bond ratings against sustainability, average country
ratings are compared to a virtual sustainability-adjusted credit rating based on
the Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index (GSCI).
For comparability, the scores of the GSCI have been converted to ratings
equivalent to credit ratings - a sustainable credit rating. The sustainability-
adjusted credit rating consists of the average conventional rating and the
GSCI rating, each weighted at 50%.
The generated grades are compared to the average credit rating of Moody’s,
S&P, and Fitch.
3.1 Rating criteria: sovereign bond ratings vs. GSCI
3.1.1 Sovereign Bond ratings
The sovereign bond rating market is dominated by just three main providers,
Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch. All three of them use different methodologies, but
similar structures. They are based on similar rating frameworks and criteria,
namely cantered around 4 key themes:
• Governance
• Finances & balance sheets
• Economic output development
• The political and regulatory framework, including event risks
The naming of those pillars differs, and individual criteria also differ. However,
all current credit ratings highly weight monetary numbers, in particular GDP-
related numbers, government finance numbers, and market numbers. The
non-quantitative criteria are less clearly defined in publicly available
documentation. Some are based on external evaluation (such as the World
Bank Government Efficiency indicators or the WEF Competitiveness Index. The
latter is itself a perception survey): Other indicators are based on qualitative
agency staff evaluation – a qualitative evaluation of policies, frameworks,
numbers, developments and expectations.
Qualitative indicators based on a value-free framework that is consistently
applied can represent a useful reflection of performance. The thinking behind
the framework needs to be completely value free, free of thinking based on
economic beliefs or expectations. However, qualitative criteria require a
definition of “good” and “bad”, and therefore cannot guarantee absolute
objectiveness. However, some cases of rating adjustments following political
changes or decisions in the past suggest that the definitions of “good” and
“bad” applied by the three large rating agencies are not completely free of
ideological thinking.
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Sovereign bond ratings structure:
Convectional credit ratings are based on 4 main themes. All themes include
qualitative as well as qualitative criteria and indicators.
Pillar Key measurements
Governance, Institutions Quantitative, payment track record
Qualitative, extern & internal indicators
Economic development Quantitative output numbers & development (GDP)
Qualitative, internal & external indicators
Finance & balance sheets Quantitative, debt and payments
Qualitative,
Policy framework & event risks Quantitative, bank sector, liquidity
Qualitative, political environment & risks
3.1.2 Model comparison
The Global Competitiveness Model is based on 5 pillars, aiming to cover &
evaluate performance of all elements that make economic development (the
root). Conventional ratings are based on 4 areas of results. Conventional
credit ratings rate the outcome (the end-result) – the GSCI the root cause of
the outcome.
For more information on the Global Sustainable Competitiveness
Methodology, please refer to the GSCI website.
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3.1.3 Criteria comparison: conventional ratings vs. sustainability rating
The criteria comparison is based on the country-level extension of the ESG
(Environment, Societal, Governance) model to an ESGE (Environment, Society,
Governance, Economy) model
Under the assumption that a country-evaluation and credit rating should
integrate sustainability, i.e. the non-financial performance that makes or
prevents financial performance, then the coverage of conventional sovereign
bond ratings only cover a small part of the full performance and associated
risks of individual countries..
Sovereign ratings Sustainable ratings
Pillar Issue Coverage Criteria Coverage Criteria
Environment Renewable resources - Water, land
Non-renewable resources - Commodities
Biodiversity - Forest, fertility, species
Resource efficiency - Resource efficiency
Pollution - Pollution levels (air, soil)
Climate change
vulnerability
- Emissions, exposure to risks
Social Health - Availability, cost
Equality
Wealth inequality "Might
affect rating"
Gender, income, wealth
Communities - Public services,
Security "Might affect rating" Crime statistics
Violence Violent conflicts
Violent conflicts, human
rights
Governance Institutions Governance efficiency Governance efficiency
Fiscal Spending, debt, … Debts
Allocation balance "Might affect rating"
Balance of gov. budget
allocation
Budget balance Spending discipline
Spending balance related
to economic phase
Corruption External indexes External indexes
Infrastructure Indexes
Investments, coverage,
quality
Freedom "Might affect rating"
Press freedom, Human
rights
Economy Education - Performance indicators
Innovation - Performance indicators
Economic development Sector balance
Sector balance, business
developments
Financial markets
Banking sector, others
"Might affect rating"
Exposure to financial
market risks, bubbles
GDP performance
GDP absolute, per
capita, trend, …
GNI absolute, per capita,
trend
Not covered Covered
Hardly covered Partly covered
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3.1.4 Empiric Correlations: conventional & sustainable ratings, GDP
Correlations: GSCI and Sovereign Bond ratings
While there seems to be a slight
initial correlation between credit
ratings and GSCI ratings, (higher
sustainability equals positive
credit rating) on first sight, there
are too many exceptions to be
considered correlating. The
empiric correlation is 25%. For
some countries there is a fairly
visible correlation – e.g. the
wealth nations of Scandinavia,
where credit ratings correlate
strongly with GSCI ratings.
However, for too many
economies, in particular of
developed countries, high credit
rating is not reflected in high
sustainable competitiveness
score. The lack of correlation strongly suggest that sovereign bond ratings do
not fully reflect risks and opportunities of and associated with individual nation-
economy, in particular long-term risks.
Correlations to GDP performance
Correlation analysis shows that
conventional ratings are to
nearly 50% tied to GDP
performance – not surprising
given the weight allocated to
GDP-based indicators in
sovereign bond ratings. GSCI
ratings on the other hand show
a very limited correlation to GDP
levels.
The high correlation to GDP
levels of conventional sovereign
bond ratings indicate that
sovereign bond ratings do not
reflect the full extent of
opportunities and risks
associated with individual
country performance. It also means that poor countries generally receive
lower ratings: poor countries have to pay higher interest rates than rich
countries.
GSCI vs sovereign credit
ratings show no
correlation, indicating
insufficient coverage of
sustainability risks in
current methodologies
Conventional ratings show
strong correlation to GDP:
poor countries have lower
ratings
R² = 0.0169
R² = 0.4846
0
10’000
20’000
30’000
40’000
50’000
60’000
70’000
80’000
90’000
100’000
5 10 15 20 25 30
GDP correlations
GSCI Conventional
Linear (GSCI) Linear (Conventional)
R² = 0.258
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
5 10 15 20 25 30
Sustainable
competitiveness
Credit rating
Sustainable competitiveness vs. credit ratings
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3.2 Significant differences in ratings
The GSCI has not been developed to reflect credit and default risks, and
therefore cannot be a direct comparison. We therefore have created a virtual
sustainability-adjusted sovereign bond rating. The sustainability adjusted rating
is equally based on the GSCI rating and the average of Fitch, Moody’s, and
S&P.
Compared to the conventional ratings of Moody’s, S & P, and Fitch, the
sustainability-adjusted credit ratings show some significant differences. Some
countries would see credit ratings upgrades. Other countries would be
downgraded under a fictional credit rating based on the Sustainable
Competitiveness Index.
The US and Australia would be significantly downgraded, while countries that
have low credit ratings mostly due to political reasons (Greece, Argentina),
would receive more favourable ratings. A significant number of lesser
developed, poorer countries (measured in GDP) would receive higher ratings
due to availability of natural capital, lower resource intensity, and the future
development potential.
Rating differences for selected countries:
Country Credit
Rating
(average of
Moody's,
S&P, Fitch)
GSCI
Rating
Level
Difference
Sustainability-
Adjusted
Rating
Level
Difference
Australia AAA BBB+ -7 AA− -3
Brazil BB BBB+ 5 BBB− 3
Canada AAA A− -6 AA− -3
Denmark AAA AA -2 AA+ -1
France AA AA− -1 AA 0
Guatemala BB B -3 BB− -1
Iceland A AA 3 AA− 2
India BBB− B+ -4 BB -2
Iraq B− CC -4 CCC -2
Italy BBB A− 2 BBB+ 1
Ivory Coast BB− BBB− 3 BB+ 2
Japan A+ A+ 0 A+ 0
Lithuania A A 0 A 0
Mongolia B BB− 2 B+ 1
Saudi Arabia A+ BB− -8 BBB -4
Tanzania B BB− 2 B+ 1
United Kingdom AA− A+ -1 AA− 0
USA AAA A− -6 AA− -3
Please refer to the tables for all county rating comparisons.
Current, sustainability and sustainability-adjusted ratings of selected countries
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3.3 Sustainability-adjusted rating differences world map
However, what is most interesting is the World map of upgrades and
downgrades of individual countries based on the virtual sustainability-adjusted
credit rating (see World map below): oil-rich Middle Eastern countries (Saudi
Arabia, Kuwait, etc.) would be significantly downgraded several levels, while
most countries in South America, Eastern Europe and Central Africa would
receive a credit rating upgrade.
The Global Map – which countries would benefit from sustainability-adjusted
credit ratings, and which countries would have to pay higher interest rates
Differences between current credit ratings and sustainability-adjusted credit
ratings: green indicates higher rating (i.e. lower interest rates), red lower rating
(i.e. higher interest rates); blue indicates no difference between current rating
and sustainability-adjusted credit rating
The World map shows a distinctive trend – mostly countries whose current
financial wealth is based to a significant part on the exploration of non-
renewable resources have a lower rating, i.e. would have to pay higher interest
rates on their debts, in particular the oil-rich nations in the Middle East. Eastern
Europe as well as South America (except Chile) would do better under
sustainability-adjusted credit ratings and occur lower interest rates. A number
of African countries, mainly in sub-Saharan tropical Africa, would also see their
credit rating increase.
Differences of current
conventional ratings and
sustainability-adjusted
ratings: red is lower, green
higher rating; blue is
neutral. For grey countries,
sovereign bond ratings are
not available
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4 Implications & Conclusions
4.1 Implications
The failure of integrating the fundamentals of country competitiveness has two
major implications – for investors (creditors) on one hand, and for the debtors
(countries) on the other hand:
• Credit rating do not fully reflect risks – environmental and social risks, as
well as opportunities arising from innovation are insufficiently covered
by current sovereign bond ratings.
• Interest rates for sovereign bonds differ significantly from country to
country – the comparison with ESG-adjusted ratings suggests that due
to insufficient credit rating quality, some countries pay too high interest,
others too low.
Sovereign credit ratings are based on economic output figures, and financial
stability indicators, here and there adjusted by qualitative indicators that might
(or might not) affect the final ratings. This approach is intended to calculate
the country risk default, on which the interest (risk) rate on loans credits and
bonds are calculated. However, such indicators do not sufficiently cover all
risks – namely the risks inherited in an unbalanced economy (e.g. oil-rich
nations), and also do not account for environmental risks (e.g. water and
pollution constraints), as well as risks associated with social upheaval. In
addition, they do insufficiently cover the opportunities that come with
investments in education.
The lack of coverage of
sustainability factors in evaluating
credit worthiness not only
insufficiently covers the risks, it also
leads to a distortion of credit ratings.
Countries with low GDP – both
absolute and per capita – are
automatically punished with higher
interest rates: developing countries
have to pay significantly higher
interest on their debt than
developed economies: the poor
countries have higher capital cost
than rich countries. Nepal or India,
for example, pay the three times as
much interest as the US, and even
more compared to Germany.
Form a development perspective, the current form applied in sovereign bond
ratings is a barrier to development. Development requires investment in
education, infrastructure, and health. The high interest rates developing
economies have to pay on credits therefore make development more difficult
and more costly compared to economies that already are developed.
Average cost of new
credits for selected
countries: developed
nations – here Germany
and the US – have to pay
much lower interests than
developing countries,
slowing the development
of under-developed
countries.
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bangladesh Benin Fiji, Rep. of
Germany India Japan
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4.2 Conclusions
Sovereign bond ratings define the interest rates a country has to pay on credits
and debt. The ratings therefore have a high impact on country finances.
There has been welcome, visible and accelerating movement within the
financial industry as a whole. Some form of “ESG”-integration into investment
risk/opportunity evaluation and investment decisions is now mainstream in the
asset management World.
The same applies now also to the major credit rating agencies. In the past, ESG
considerations - social and environmental aspects - were “considered too
weak” in influencing government capability and willingness to meet financial
demands. Luckily, this seems to have changed significantly over the last few
years. However, it is not yet clear how and to what extend they tend to fully
integrate ESG considerations in their rating frameworks and methodologies,
bot for corporate ratings and sovereign bond ratings namely for project risk
evaluation and corporate ratings.
At this point in time, sovereign bond ratings - which define interest rates that
countries have to pay on credits, loans and debt – still do not sufficiently
integrate ESG considerations.
The comparison of current sovereign bond ratings and a sustainability-adjusted
county credit ratings shows significant differences. Countries whose wealth is
based on exploitation of natural resources would receive a significant lower
credit rating. May developing nations would receive higher ratings (and
therefor lower interest rates) based on their development potential.
• Sovereign bond ratings show a high correlation to GDP/capita
levels. Poor countries have to pay higher interest rates than rich
countries.
• Sovereign bond ratings do not reflect the non-tangible risks and
opportunities associated with nation economies
• Sustainable adjusted ratings and conventional ratings show
significant differences. Under a sustainability-adjusted credit
rating, countries with high reliance on exploitation of natural
resources would be rated lower, while poor country with a
healthy fundament (biodiversity, education, governance) would
receive higher ratings.
GDP is the result of thousands of little pieces in an immense machinery,
including “the intangibles”. Credit ratings have to reflect the underlying factors
that define the future development and capability of a country to generate
and sustain wealth. It is high time that credit ratings fully include
ESG/sustainability factors in their risk calculations.
15. ESG Country Credit Rating
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5 Country list: sovereign bonds vs. sustainable
adjusted ratings
Country Credit Rating
(average of
Moody's, S&P, Fitch)
Sustainability-
Adjusted Rating
Level Difference
Albania B+ BB+ 3
Andorra BBB+ BBB -1
Angola CCC+ B 2
Argentina CCC BB− 5
Armenia B+ BB+ 3
Aruba BBB− B -5
Australia AAA AA− -3
Austria AA+ AA -1
Azerbaijan BB+ BB− -2
Bahamas BB− B -2
Bahrain B+ B− -2
Bangladesh BB− BB 1
Barbados CCC+ B− 1
Belarus B BB 3
Belgium AA− A+ -1
Belize CCC− B+ 5
Benin B+ B -1
Bolivia B BB+ 4
Bosnia and Herzegovina B BB 4
Botswana A− BBB− -3
Brazil BB BBB− 3
Bulgaria BBB BBB+ 1
Burkina Faso B B+ 1
Cambodia B BB− 2
Cameroon B BB 3
Canada AAA AA− -3
Cape Verde B− B− 0
Chile A A 0
China A+ A -1
Colombia BBB− BBB 1
Congo CCC+ B 2
Costa Rica B BBB− 5
Croatia BBB− A− 3
Cuba CC B 5
Cyprus BBB− BBB− 1
Czech Republic AA− A+ -1
Denmark AAA AA+ -1
Dominican Republic BB− BB+ 2
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Country Credit Rating
(average of
Moody's, S&P, Fitch)
Sustainability-
Adjusted Rating
Level Difference
Ecuador CCC+ BB− 5
Egypt B B+ 1
El Salvador B− BB− 4
Estonia AA− A+ -1
Ethiopia CCC B 3
Fiji B+ BB+ 3
Finland AA+ AA+ 0
France AA AA 0
Gabon B− B+ 3
Georgia BB BBB− 2
Germany AAA AA+ -1
Ghana B BB 4
Greece BB BBB− 2
Guatemala BB BB− -1
Honduras B+ B+ 0
Hong Kong AA A -3
Hungary BBB BBB+ 1
Iceland A AA− 2
India BBB− BB -2
Indonesia BBB BBB 0
Iraq B− CCC -2
Ireland A+ A+ 1
Isle of Man AA− A -2
Israel A+ A− -2
Italy BBB BBB+ 1
Ivory Coast BB− BB+ 2
Jamaica B+ B+ 0
Japan A+ A+ 0
Jordan B+ B+ 0
Kazakhstan BBB BBB 0
Kenya B BB 3
Kuwait AA− BBB− -6
Kyrgyzstan B BB 3
Laos CCC+ B+ 4
Latvia A A 0
Lebanon D CC 2
Lesotho B B 0
Liechtenstein AAA AA -2
Lithuania A A 0
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Country Credit Rating
(average of
Moody's, S&P, Fitch)
Sustainability-
Adjusted Rating
Level Difference
Macedonia BB+ BBB− 1
Malaysia A− BBB+ -1
Maldives B− BB− 4
Mali CCC+ B− 1
Malta A+ A -1
Mauritius BBB BBB+ 1
Mexico BBB BBB 0
Moldova B− BB− 3
Mongolia B B+ 1
Montenegro B+ BB 3
Morocco BB+ BB+ 0
Mozambique CCC+ CCC+ 0
Namibia BB BB 1
Netherlands AAA AA -2
New Zealand AA+ AA -1
Nicaragua B− B+ 2
Niger B− B 1
Nigeria B B 0
Norway AAA AA+ -1
Oman BB− BB− 0
Pakistan B− B− 0
Panama BBB BBB 0
Papua New Guinea B B+ 1
Paraguay BB+ BBB− 1
Peru BBB+ BBB+ 0
Philippines BBB BBB− -1
Poland A A− -1
Portugal BBB A− 2
Puerto Rico D B− 6
Qatar AA− BBB− -6
Republic of the Congo CCC+ B− 1
Romania BBB− BBB+ 2
Russia BBB BBB 1
Rwanda B+ B -1
San Marino BB+ BBB 2
Saudi Arabia A+ BBB -4
18. ESG Country Credit Rating
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Country Credit Rating
(average of
Moody's, S&P, Fitch)
Sustainability-
Adjusted Rating
Level Difference
Senegal BB− BB− 1
Serbia BB+ BBB− 1
Seychelles B+ BB− 1
Singapore AAA AA− -3
Slovakia A A 0
Slovenia A A 1
Solomon Islands CCC+ BB− 4
South Africa BB B+ -2
South Korea AA A+ -2
Spain A− A 1
Sri Lanka CCC+ BB− 4
St Vincent and the Grenadines B− B+ 2
Suriname CCC− B+ 5
Swaziland B− B+ 2
Sweden AAA AAA 0
Switzerland AAA AA+ -1
Taiwan AA n/a #N/A
Tajikistan B− BB− 3
Tanzania B B+ 1
Thailand BBB+ BBB -1
Togo B B 1
Trinidad and Tobago BB B+ -2
Tunisia B− B 2
Turkey B+ BB 2
Uganda B B 0
Ukraine B BB 3
United Arab Emirates AA A− -4
United Kingdom AA− AA− 0
USA AAA AA− -3
Uruguay BBB BBB+ 1
Uzbekistan BB− BB 2
Venezuela D B 7
Vietnam BB BB 0
Zambia CC CCC 2
19. ESG Country Credit Rating
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20. ESG Country Credit Rating
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The Global Sustainable
Competitiveness Index
10th
edition
2021
www.solability.com
contact@solability.com