The big issues we face today contain society, nature and man-made components. It is difficult to consider these systems within the traditional systems contexts, where we can set well-defined boundaries during the design (analytical decomposition) process. Still, the analysis/synthesis process must be thorough enough to ensure that the functional, physical and allocated architectures that are discovered and defined during the analytical phase, can deliver a reasonable, traceable outcome.
1. EMEA Systems Engineering Conference 2014
"SYSTEMS ENGINEERING: EXPLORING NEW HORIZONS"
27 - 30 OCTOBER 2014 - CAPE TOWN, SOUTH AFRICA
Engineering Design of an Environmental
Management System:
A Transdisciplinary Response to the
Rhino Poaching Problem
Henk Roodt, StoneToStars Limited – New Zealand
Hildegarde Koen, CSIR – South Africa
StoneToStars
2. Let’s be clear:
we are breaching the limits of sustainability StoneToStars
After Rockstrom et al (2009) Raworth (2012)
3. These are Wicked Problems
StoneToStars
Rittel and Webber 1973
Edgar Morin 2008
4. Dr Chris Riedy of the Institute of Sustainable
Futures in Sydney said this of the problem
space recently
StoneToStars
• Difficult to define /
contested
• Interdependent, multi-
causal
• Unforeseen
consequences, emergent
behaviour
• Unstable, evolving
• Chronic policy failure
• No clear solution
• Socially complex
• Cross organisational
boundaries
• Behaviour change
The problems we face are:
5. On the nth day there was
“Disciplinary Decadence”
StoneToStars
Descartes and Aristotle: inquiry grounded in a logical
objectivity & process of disjunction and reduction to
yield understandable pieces of a bigger problem.
• The unintended consequences of reductionism
• A multitude of disciplines of study
• Funded and segmented in silos
• Trying to isolate the controllable elements – Renee Stevens
• The sucker punch of the veneer of simplicity – Ron Schultz
• Inability to cope with circular and recursive causality
6. Ways we typically approach problems
StoneToStars
Checkland, P & Poulter, J 2010, ‘Soft Systems Methodology’, in M Reynolds & S Holwell (eds), Systems Approaches to Managing Change: A Practical Guide
9. This requires us to Shift
• Anticipate (anticipare, from ante- ‘before’ + capere ‘take’)
• Predict (praedicere, from prae- ‘beforehand’ + dicere ‘say’)
• Possibility (possibilis ‘able to be done’)
• Probability (probare ‘to test, demonstrate’)
• Diverse
• Uniform
• Evolve
• Design
Evolve a system carefully, rather than try to design it in one go (Sarah Sheard - 2008)
“…renounce the logic of instrumental reason by creating a more democratic discourse
involving participation.” (Julie Thompson Klein -2004)
Looking for a resolution and wise decisions.
StoneToStars
10. Shift to something that looks like this: StoneToStars
Components AND networks
Science AND society
Abstract AND case knowledge
Synthesise new knowledge focused
on the problem in the real world
For the common good
Actionintheworld–Montuori2005
reflectiveandself-critical
11. The Transdisciplinary Approach StoneToStars
Shifting the problem
Stopping
flag
Docum
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Document
D
ocument
Structuring
Analysis Synthesis
Recursive
Recursive
Recursive
Causalities and Likelihoods
Complex
Problem
Synthesised
Resolution
Space
Morphologies and Patterns
12. The Recursive and Evolutionary Core StoneToStars
Document
Document
D
ocument
Structuring
Analysis Synthesis
Consider thestateof existingknowledgein
relevant disciplinesandamongst actorsin
societytodefinetheproblem, identify
important aspects, determineresearch
questionsandinvolvement.
What formsof thematic
collaboration&organisationare
adequatetotakeintoaccount
different interestsand
circumstances.
Embedtheproject intosocial and
scientificcontexts: test the
expectedimpact.
SynthesisandTranslationof Knowledge
Joint FramingandStructuring
Conceptual, Epistemological and
Methodological Uncertainties
Recursive
Recursive
Recursive
Redrawn from Hirsch Hadorn 2008
by Henk Roodt 2014
13. The Plight of the Rhino StoneToStars
Rhino Poaching Statistics 01 January 2014 – 12 October 2014
15. The Current Situation StoneToStars
Poaching Attacks and Arrests 01 January 2014 – 12 October 2014
Arrests: 232
16. Solutions Offered StoneToStars
• Defence Force deployed in Kruger National Park (Fear of death - poacher)
• Poisoning of horns (Reduce the market - user)
• Guard dogs deployed (Fear of capture - poacher)
• Technology (remote controlled drones, etc. - poacher focussed)
• Mathematical models (systems focus per operation)
But what about the other stakeholders?
17. Seems we need to shift the problem space
StoneToStars
What we know:
• Embedded in system with nonlinear and recursive causalities – the system is rich
in self-organising elements.
• Wicked problem – answer this: How can we develop a deep enough shared
understanding amongst the stakeholders to shift the system from where it is at
present (heading to extinction of the rhino) to one where the rhino is preserved
and where aspects of the system that could pull it back into the ‘negative’
outcome are managed to the point where they have only a slim likelihood of
being re-activated?
• Stopping criteria: poaching decreases or the rhino is extinct.
• Some of the stakeholders can only be reached indirectly, but need to be
considered as part of the system we seek to manage.
Docume
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Structuring
Analysis Synthesis
Recursive
Recursive
Recursive
18. Engaging parts of the system to develop a shared
initial understanding StoneToStars
• Fuse different sources of information
• Mixed-mode Gaussian mixture model (GMM) as prior distribution
• Elicit expert knowledge
• Answer operational questions
Docume
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Structuring
Analysis Synthesis
Recursive
Recursive
Recursive
19. A Shared View of the Problem StoneToStars
Docume
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Structuring
Analysis Synthesis
Recursive
Recursive
Recursive
First artifact resulting from initial synthesis
20. Method emerges from the process (Edgar
Morin 2008). StoneToStars
Docume
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Structuring
Analysis Synthesis
Recursive
Recursive
Recursive
Established methods exist to validate and evaluate BNs:
• Perform sensitivity analysis
• Evaluate scenarios
• Assess prediction performance
• Evaluate uncertainty of model posteriors
More stakeholders can now be engaged.
Elicitation can be geared towards most influential parameters.
The resolution space evolves and directs the socio-eco-tech-political actions
using a common understanding and shared logic.
We can engage the disciplines in a meaningful manner, bringing cohesion to the
efforts, ensuring the outcome is for the common good and owned by all.
21. EMEA Systems Engineering Conference 2014
"SYSTEMS ENGINEERING: EXPLORING NEW HORIZONS"
27 - 30 OCTOBER 2014 - CAPE TOWN, SOUTH AFRICA
www.stonetostars.nz
www.csir.co.za
StoneToStars
From Twitter @cazzwebbo (Dr Carol Webb):
Polarities and binary oppositions obfuscate the "truth" about
diversity, complexity and the many outliers that don't fit a linear
model.
Editor's Notes
This can be extended to include the socio-political space.
1973 – socio-political space
2008 – the case of recursive causality: the system consists of elements that give rise to the system. Holographic.
The Vee starts with a requirements elicitation process and interpretation of stated needs. From experience we know that this process works well when the problem is well defined, meaning that we can define the boundaries of the problem space that differentiate it from the larger environment in which it is contained. In such systems the requirements can be agreed to and are captured in a logical framework. They remain stable over time and functional and architectural decomposition is possible. When the sub-system functions and architectures are subsequently assembled, the behaviour of the synthesised system will be very close to, or exactly as was expected. For this reason system engineering program managers traditionally spend quite a bit of energy to try to ensure well-defined problem spaces and subsequent solutions. It comes down to isolating those elements that can be controlled within reason from those that cannot be similarly controlled (Stevens 2011).
What is not apparent in the “Vee” diagram is whether a top-down or bottom-up or combination conceptual design approach is followed. In a top-down approach the requirements are handled as an intrinsic part of the method and may lead to development of new sub-systems and technologies to realise the solution. In a bottom-up design the exclusive use of existing systems and concepts may yield a solution, but not necessarily one that fulfils all the requirements. For this reason, most design processes are combinations of these approaches, especially where complex systems are involved (Aslaksen 2009).
A design must be judged relative to how well it meets the requirements of the group of stakeholders that expressed the need or problem. In this lies the rub, so to say. What if it is difficult to identify the inclusive group of stakeholders? Often the requirement is stated very broadly, as a general vision, initially by a small group (the restoration of a wetlands sanctuary for birds) and then it escalates into a large group of potential stakeholders when the farmers, government and other agencies become aware of the issue at hand. Or it is stated as a response to a changing environment, like climate change, where the causalities are all but clear. In many cases it is not possible to deduce from a design if the development of a
solution would generate unintended side effects as a result of the interaction of sub-systems. And finally, what if several different designs are offered as an answer to the requirement, all seemingly satisfying it?
The transdisciplinary approach expands the solution space by facilitating knowledge sharing and solution development by a wider stakeholder set, rather than focusing on the
requirements and know-how of the initial owner of the problem. It effectively moves beyond the zero-sum game of poachers and consumers trying to increase the number of poached horns, while the game owners and police try to reduce the numbers.
A total of 232 poachers were arrested during the first three quarters of 2014, and the area with the biggest problem (the Kruger National Park), has a very low number of arrests in relation to the number of poaching attacks (only about 29% success rate).
By current calculations and poaching trends, it is estimated that the rhino population in the wild will be extinct by 2026. This year might also be the year that rhino poaching exceeds rhino births.
Clearly, the current approaches are not sufficient.