Emeasec 2014 RoodtKoen
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This document summarizes a presentation given at the EMEA Systems Engineering Conference in 2014 on developing an environmental management system to address rhino poaching in South Africa. It discusses how rhino poaching is a "wicked problem" with many interdependent factors. It advocates using a transdisciplinary approach to shift from traditional disciplinary methods that fail to address complex problems. This approach engages stakeholders to develop a shared understanding of the problem and monitors the system recursively to identify leverage points to guide actions that preserve rhinos while managing influences that could worsen poaching.
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Emeasec 2014 RoodtKoen
- 1. EMEA Systems Engineering Conference 2014 "SYSTEMS ENGINEERING: EXPLORING NEW HORIZONS" 27 - 30 OCTOBER 2014 - CAPE TOWN, SOUTH AFRICA Engineering Design of an Environmental Management System: A Transdisciplinary Response to the Rhino Poaching Problem Henk Roodt, StoneToStars Limited – New Zealand Hildegarde Koen, CSIR – South Africa StoneToStars
- 2. Let’s be clear: we are breaching the limits of sustainability StoneToStars After Rockstrom et al (2009) Raworth (2012)
- 3. These are Wicked Problems StoneToStars Rittel and Webber 1973 Edgar Morin 2008
- 4. Dr Chris Riedy of the Institute of Sustainable Futures in Sydney said this of the problem space recently StoneToStars • Difficult to define / contested • Interdependent, multi- causal • Unforeseen consequences, emergent behaviour • Unstable, evolving • Chronic policy failure • No clear solution • Socially complex • Cross organisational boundaries • Behaviour change The problems we face are:
- 5. On the nth day there was “Disciplinary Decadence” StoneToStars Descartes and Aristotle: inquiry grounded in a logical objectivity & process of disjunction and reduction to yield understandable pieces of a bigger problem. •The unintended consequences of reductionism • A multitude of disciplines of study • Funded and segmented in silos • Trying to isolate the controllable elements – Renee Stevens • The sucker punch of the veneer of simplicity – Ron Schultz • Inability to cope with circular and recursive causality
- 6. Ways we typically approach problems StoneToStars Checkland, P & Poulter, J 2010, ‘Soft Systems Methodology’, in M Reynolds & S Holwell (eds), Systems Approaches to Managing Change: A Practical Guide
- 7. The technical space StoneToStars
- 8. The socio-eco-tech-political space StoneToStars Individual Collective After Esbjorn-Hargens and Zimmerman, 2009) • Poli cal • Environment • Legal • World view • Ethics • Religion • Empirical • Hard • So • Beliefs • Emo ons • Iden ty Psychology Behaviour SystemsCulture
- 9. This requires us to Shift StoneToStars
- 10. Shift to something that looks like this: StoneToStars Actionintheworld–Montuori2005 reflectiveandself-critical
- 11. The Transdisciplinary Approach StoneToStars Shifting the problem Stopping flag Docum e nt Document D ocument Structuring Analysis Synthesis Recursive Recursive Recursive Causalities and Likelihoods Complex Problem Synthesised Resolution Space Morphologies and Patterns
- 12. The Recursive and Evolutionary Core StoneToStars Document Document D ocument Structuring Analysis Synthesis Consider thestateof existingknowledgein relevant disciplinesandamongst actorsin societytodefinetheproblem, identify important aspects, determineresearch questionsandinvolvement. What formsof thematic collaboration&organisationare adequatetotakeintoaccount different interestsand circumstances. Embedtheproject intosocial and scientificcontexts: test the expectedimpact. SynthesisandTranslationof Knowledge Joint FramingandStructuring Conceptual, Epistemological and Methodological Uncertainties Recursive Recursive Recursive Redrawn from Hirsch Hadorn 2008 by Henk Roodt 2014
- 13. The Plight of the Rhino StoneToStars Rhino Poaching Statistics 01 January 2014 – 12 October 2014
- 14. The Original Driver StoneToStars
- 15. The Current Situation StoneToStars Poaching Attacks and Arrests 01 January 2014 – 12 October 2014 Arrests: 232
- 17. Seems we need to shift the problem space StoneToStars What we know: •Embedded in system with nonlinear and recursive causalities – the system is rich in self-organising elements. •Wicked problem – answer this: How can we develop a deep enough shared understanding amongst the stakeholders to shift the system from where it is at present (heading to extinction of the rhino) to one where the rhino is preserved and where aspects of the system that could pull it back into the ‘negative’ outcome are managed to the point where they have only a slim likelihood of being re-activated? •Stopping criteria: poaching decreases or the rhino is extinct. •Some of the stakeholders can only be reached indirectly, but need to be considered as part of the system we seek to manage. Docume nt Document D ocument Structuring Analysis Synthesis Recursive Recursive Recursive
- 18. Engaging parts of the system to develop a shared initial understanding StoneToStars • Fuse different sources of information • Mixed-mode Gaussian mixture model (GMM) as prior distribution • Elicit expert knowledge • Answer operational questions Docum e nt Document D ocument Structuring Analysis Synthesis Recursive Recursive Recursive
- 19. A Shared View of the Problem StoneToStars Docume nt Document D ocument Structuring Analysis Synthesis Recursive Recursive Recursive First artifact resulting from initial synthesis
- 20. Method emerges from the process (Edgar Morin 2008). StoneToStars Docume nt Document D ocument Structuring Analysis Synthesis Recursive Recursive Recursive Established methods exist to validate and evaluate BNs: • Perform sensitivity analysis • Evaluate scenarios • Assess prediction performance • Evaluate uncertainty of model posteriors More stakeholders can now be engaged. Elicitation can be geared towards most influential parameters. The resolution space evolves and directs the socio-eco-tech-political actions using a common understanding and shared logic. We can engage the disciplines in a meaningful manner, bringing cohesion to the efforts, ensuring the outcome is for the common good and owned by all.
- 21. EMEA Systems Engineering Conference 2014 "SYSTEMS ENGINEERING: EXPLORING NEW HORIZONS" 27 - 30 OCTOBER 2014 - CAPE TOWN, SOUTH AFRICA www.stonetostars.nz www.csir.co.za StoneToStars From Twitter @cazzwebbo (Dr Carol Webb): Polarities and binary oppositions obfuscate the "truth" about diversity, complexity and the many outliers that don't fit a linear model.
Editor's Notes
- This can be extended to include the socio-political space.
- 1973 – socio-political space 2008 – the case of recursive causality: the system consists of elements that give rise to the system. Holographic.
- The Vee starts with a requirements elicitation process and interpretation of stated needs. From experience we know that this process works well when the problem is well defined, meaning that we can define the boundaries of the problem space that differentiate it from the larger environment in which it is contained. In such systems the requirements can be agreed to and are captured in a logical framework. They remain stable over time and functional and architectural decomposition is possible. When the sub-system functions and architectures are subsequently assembled, the behaviour of the synthesised system will be very close to, or exactly as was expected. For this reason system engineering program managers traditionally spend quite a bit of energy to try to ensure well-defined problem spaces and subsequent solutions. It comes down to isolating those elements that can be controlled within reason from those that cannot be similarly controlled (Stevens 2011). What is not apparent in the “Vee” diagram is whether a top-down or bottom-up or combination conceptual design approach is followed. In a top-down approach the requirements are handled as an intrinsic part of the method and may lead to development of new sub-systems and technologies to realise the solution. In a bottom-up design the exclusive use of existing systems and concepts may yield a solution, but not necessarily one that fulfils all the requirements. For this reason, most design processes are combinations of these approaches, especially where complex systems are involved (Aslaksen 2009).
- A design must be judged relative to how well it meets the requirements of the group of stakeholders that expressed the need or problem. In this lies the rub, so to say. What if it is difficult to identify the inclusive group of stakeholders? Often the requirement is stated very broadly, as a general vision, initially by a small group (the restoration of a wetlands sanctuary for birds) and then it escalates into a large group of potential stakeholders when the farmers, government and other agencies become aware of the issue at hand. Or it is stated as a response to a changing environment, like climate change, where the causalities are all but clear. In many cases it is not possible to deduce from a design if the development of a solution would generate unintended side effects as a result of the interaction of sub-systems. And finally, what if several different designs are offered as an answer to the requirement, all seemingly satisfying it?
- The transdisciplinary approach expands the solution space by facilitating knowledge sharing and solution development by a wider stakeholder set, rather than focusing on the requirements and know-how of the initial owner of the problem. It effectively moves beyond the zero-sum game of poachers and consumers trying to increase the number of poached horns, while the game owners and police try to reduce the numbers.
- A total of 232 poachers were arrested during the first three quarters of 2014, and the area with the biggest problem (the Kruger National Park), has a very low number of arrests in relation to the number of poaching attacks (only about 29% success rate). By current calculations and poaching trends, it is estimated that the rhino population in the wild will be extinct by 2026. This year might also be the year that rhino poaching exceeds rhino births. Clearly, the current approaches are not sufficient.