The document discusses the emergence of organization from a behavioral domain. It argues that all forms of organization, from snowflakes to human societies, emerge in response to inequalities in their local environments. Organization emerges through the natural selection of "behavior-pattern species" that minimize environmental inequalities through the division of labor into roles. The document explores parallels between the emergence of organization in nature, physics, and human society.

1. THE EMZINE Phenomenon A New Window Onto Our World © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

2. Introductory Topics A New Window Onto Our World Improving Organization, Applied Technology The Emzine Phenomenon Evidence in Society Parallels of Organization, Physics of Organization Examples of Organizational Emergence © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

3. Introductory Topics The Emzine Phenomenon Parallels of Organization, Physics of Organization © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

4. Parallels of organization What does “organization” mean? According to any unabridged dictionary, to organize means: “To form into a whole - consisting of independent parts - especially for harmonious action” However, as the following examples show: Organization does not determine harmonious action but harmonious action determines organization! © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

5. Parallels of organization Flame H2O as by-product unaccounted for A certain temperature inequality sets off a fleeting stream of oxidation order. Erwin Schrödinger CO2 CO2 CO2 CH4 O2 O2 © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

6. Parallels of organization Flame H2O as by-product unaccounted for At a certain temperatureinequality, simultaneous and congruent oxidation behavior of hot gas moleculesemerges spontaneously inside the behavioral space vacated or created by others that are moving in sync. Such behavior leaves a visible residue in the shape of a flame. CO2 CO2 CO2 In one universal paragraph... CH4 O2 O2 © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

7. Parallels of organization A certain temperature inequality shapes the structure of a snowflake. Kenneth Libbrecht Snowflake © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

8. Parallels of organization At a certain temperatureinequality, simultaneous and congruent vibration behavior of frozen water moleculesemerges spontaneously inside the behavioral space vacated or created by others that are moving in sync. Such behavior leaves a visible residue in the shape of a snowflake. Snowflake In one universal paragraph... © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

9. Parallels of organization Bénard Cell A certain temperature inequality makes molecules follow orderly paths. Henri Bénard, Ilya Prigogine Snowflake View of surface from above Petri dish Heat © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

10. Parallels of organization Bénard Cell At a certain temperatureinequality, simultaneous and congruent heat-transport behavior of molecules in a liquid emerges spontaneously inside the behavioral space vacated or created by others that are moving in sync. Such behavior leaves a visible residue in the shape of a convection cell. Snowflake View of surface from above In one universal paragraph... Petri dish Heat © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

11. Parallels of organization Bénard Cell At a certain day-time inequality, simultaneous and congruent flapping behavior of migrating birdsemerges spontaneously inside the behavioral space vacated or created by others that are moving in sync. Such behavior leaves a visible residue in the shape of a flock of birds. Snowflake Bird Flock In one universal paragraph... Blowin’ in the wind. The Economist (Nov 29 2008) - Strangely enough, leaders of a flock (or of a chase) also benefit through inverted slipstreaming © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

12. Parallels of organization Bénard Cell Organization At a certain supply/demandinequality, simultaneous and congruent role-inspiredbehavior of employees emerges spontaneously inside the behavioral space vacated or created by others that are moving in sync. Such behavior leaves a visible residue in the shape of a business organization. Snowflake Bird Flock In one universal paragraph... © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

13. Parallels of organization E8 Theory Bénard Cell Organization At a certain energyinequality, simultaneous and congruent interference behavior of fundamental fieldsemerges spontaneously inside the behavioral space vacated or created by others that are moving in sync. Such behavior leaves a visible residue in the shape of a E8 Lie group. Snowflake Bird Flock In one universal paragraph... Source: Gareth Lisi. An Exceptionally Simple Theory of Everything. arXiv:0711.0770v1 Critique: J.Distler, S. Garibaldi, There is no Theory of Everything inside E8. arXiv:0905.2658 © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

14. Parallels of organization Wrap-up Environment Trigger Behavior-Pattern Species Environment-Sustained Organization Flame Temperature Inequality Oxidizing Molecule Congruently Igniting Gas Molecules Snowflake Structure Temperature Inequality Settling Spot Congruently Vibrating Frozen Water Molecules Visible Residue Bénard Cell Pattern Temperature Inequality Surface Perturbations Congruently Moving Liquid Molecules Flock of Birds Day-light Inequality Leading Bird Congruently Flapping Birds Business Organization Supply, Demand Inequality Entrepreneurial Leadership Congruently Working People in Multiple Roles Inequality-Inspired Behavior-Pattern Reproduction Undertermined Environment Amplification / Transmission Emergence / Selection of Behavior Pattern Inequality 4-State Universality of Behavior-Pattern SpeciesEmergence Each stage is supported by a mathematical process-description in the domain of chaos theory. © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

15. Parallels of organization State-process descriptions in chaos theory ITINERANT ATTRACTOR ATTRACTOR DEVELOPMENT STOCHASTIC RESONANCE OPEN CHAOS Inequality-Inspired Behavior-Pattern Reproduction Undertermined Environment Amplification / Transmission Emergence / Selection of Behavior Pattern 4-State Universality of Behavior-Pattern SpeciesEmergence Inequality © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

16. Parallels of organization Nature spontaneously fosters forms of organizationto minimize inequalitiesin the fastest way possible! Inequality The 2nd Law of Thermodynamics Rudolf Clausius, Ludwig Boltzmann, Erwin Schrödinger, Ilya Prigogine Time Gradient = Rate of Inequality Minimization Time WithOrganization Time Without Organization © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

17. Parallels of organization The environment – a complex of inequalities – determines the emergence of forms of organization! “The process of evolution was reversed by returning fruit-flies to their ancestral environment from which they had diverged.” Simon Conway Morris, “Life’s Solution”, Cambridge University Press (2003) © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

18. Parallels of organization Human Organization? Stage of Development Behavior-Pattern Emergence Leadership Archetype State D Confronter Creating a Level Playing Field Undertermined Environment A Transformer Finding a New Platform for Growth Amplification / Transmission B Builder Resonating with the Environment Emergence / Selection of Behavior Pattern C Grower Repeating Success Ever More Efficiently Inequality-Inspired Behavior-Pattern Reproduction D Confronter Creating a Level Playing Field Undertermined Environment Shared by all forms of organization Specific to human organization If organizations emerge by themselves, then what is the role of a leader? © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

19. Parallels of organization Explaining Organization Behavior Patterns Visible Outcomes © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

20. Parallels of organization Iceberg metaphor Existential Manifold Visible Outcomes Behavior Patterns Hidden World ExistentialManifoldZine=Emzine The magazine in which outcomes arewritten © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

21. Emzine phenomenon All forms of organization emerge from the behavioral domain Snowflake Convection cell Flock of Birds Human Organization Local Environment Organization Survival of the least-energy-fitting Natural Selection of Behavior-Pattern Species 2 Behavior-Pattern Species Minimizing inequalitythrough Division of Labor into Roles 1 Inequality Temperature Daylight duration Supply-Demand Energy © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

22. Emzine phenomenon All forms of organization emerge from the behavioral domain Local Scale Scale Organization 2 Local Behavior-Pattern Species Local 1 Local Inequality Global Scale © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

23. Physics of organization Inequalities ENTROPY Curbing Order eventually Organization Visible Outcomes over Time Now: 4000 Minerals Behavior-Pattern Species 1 Early Universe: No Minerals Roles[Order] Division of Labor into Roles Evolution of Rocks or Minerals Atoms dynamically arranged in lattices creating unique crystalline structures - not unlike snowflakes or human organizations Entropic Force Inequality Roles Minimizing inequalities 0thLaw of Thermodynamics Inequalities 1st Law of Thermodynamics Sum of all inequalities remains unchanged Source: David Corriveau. Dr Robert Hazen rocks Norwich’s geology community. Norwich University (December 2008) © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

25. Sharing inequality-minimizing urge

26. Behavioral space creation and utilization Economics Least-Energy Fitting Physics Organization 2 Natural Selection of Behavior-Pattern Species Behavior-Pattern Species Inequality = Congruent Simultaneity © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

27. A new window onto our world The world of behavior-pattern species that reconciles it Organization 2 The world of localized energy- inequalities that triggers it Behavior-Pattern Species 1 Inequality The world, that we observe, too diverse to make sense of © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

28. reconciling our world A world of behavior-pattern species that reconciles it Universal Laws of thermodynamics The world of localized energy inequalities that triggers it Context-specific The world, that we observe, too diverse to make sense of Explanations © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

29. reconciling our world PREDICTABLE STAGES Universal Laws of thermodynamics The world of localized energy inequalities that triggers it Context-specific The world, that we observe, too diverse to make sense of Explanations © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

31. Operators yield singularity at time = 0

32. Lack of emergent time in quantum theory

33. Auto-emergent particles in absolute vacuum

34. The arrow of time

35. Nature of the cosmological constant

36. Dark energy and dark matter

37. Prediction by extrapolation and chance only

38. What is time?time -> 0 Laws of thermodynamics Context-specific Historical Sciences Operator State 1 ↔ State 2 time -> infinity Explanations Time Issues Approach © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

39. reconciling our world Congruent Simultaneity Universal Science of Emergence Open Chaos Behavior-Pattern Reproduction Amplification Transmission Behavior-Pattern Emergence, Selection Open Chaos CAUSE Congruent-Simultaneity Potential Realized Potential Now Realized Features Feature-Development Potential CONSEQUENCE Laws of thermodynamics Turbulence Bubble Expansion Instability Transmission Bubble Formation Turbulence Features of Evolving Phenomena Phase Transition Context-specific Historical Sciences Noise Temporal-Code Reproduction Signal Transmission Temporal-Code Emergence Noise Neuron Network Turbulence Behavior-Pattern Reproduction Idea Transmission Behavior-Pattern Emergence, Selection Turbulence Human Organization Decay Repeated Synchronization Random Fluctuations Spreading Synchronization Decay Inflation of Universe Explanations © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

40. science of emergence Chaos/Complexity Theory Thermodynamics World-Phenomenon Features Cosmological Societal Biological Chemical Sub-Atomic Exploring, Explaining, Classifying © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

41. Physics of organization Re-explaining Evolution Niches, Species Visible Outcomes Existential Manifold = forms of organization observed Consequence Emzine= Zinewhere forms of organization are written Cause Behavioral Domain Alfred Russel Wallace and Charles Darwin: What makes the branching tree of species grow? © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

42. Physics of organization Reciprocal Conditioning Physical Outcomes Humans RNA, DNA Dimension of Outcomes Evolving Realities Snowflakes Niches, Species Flocks Organizations Behavior Patterns Thought Behavioral Domain Awareness Non-material Outcomes © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

43. Physics of organization What is reality, really? Could it be what we touch or observe? Niches, Species Visible Outcomes We touch a sub-atomic abyss An atom is at least 15-times smaller than a molecule An atom is at least 100,000 times bigger than its nucleus Reality in truth = an ecosystem of behavior-pattern species Gautama Buddha Only together they arise - pattica sumuppãda Behavioral Domain © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

44. Physics of organization Depicting the cyclical nature of emergence Visible Outcomes Consequence 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 Cause Behavioral Domain © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

45. Physics of Organization Fractals of organizational emergence Slow Dimension of Outcomes Population of Best-Fitting Behavior-Pattern Species Time Fast Behavioral Domain © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

46. Physics of Organization Purposeful Evolution Dimension of Outcomes Inequality Existential Manifold Forms of Organization Inequalities≡ Entropy Ever-increasing Inequality-minimizing Capacity Emzine Emzine Phenomenon World of unimaginable order Roles ≡ Complexity Behavioral Domain © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

47. Physics of Organization Most-efficient geometry Honeycomb Dimension of Outcomes Ice Crystal Inequality Existential Manifold Bénard Cell E8 Symmetry Hexagon-inspired structures are residues rather than explanations Emzine Behavioral Domain © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

48. Introductory Topics The Emzine Phenomenon Evidence in Society Parallels of Organization, Physics of Organization Examples of Organizational Emergence © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

50. Driven by conviction

51. Knocks on many doors for funding

52. Persistently amends the concept

53. Until securing funds and acceptance A Finding Platform for Growth Idea Level Playing Field ...virtual wall © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

55. Driven by vision and passion

56. Builds a basic organization

57. Cozies up to clients, identifies niches

58. Proves the business by growth B Finding Platform for Growth Resonating with Environment Idea Nurture Niches ...virtual wall © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

60. Driven by cost, volume, and quality

61. Fosters process, flows, and culture

62. Fans out responsibilities to specialists

63. Realizes substantial stable growthFinding Platform for Growth Resonating with Environment Idea Nurture Niches Stable Growth Process Repeating Proven Success C ...virtual wall © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

65. Distances from established procedures

66. Simplifies and purifies organization

67. Brings in outside standards of success

68. Achieves profitability but not growthFinding Platform for Growth Resonating with Environment Idea Nurture Niches Stable Growth Process Distancing Repeating Proven Success Creating Level Playing Field D Declining Growth ...virtual wall © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

70. Driven by conviction

71. Aims to re-invent organization/society

72. May have to make several attempts

73. Identifies a new platform for growth A Finding Platform for Growth Resonating with Environment Idea Nurture Niches Stable Growth Uncertain Growth Process Distancing Repeating Proven Success Creating Level Playing Field Declining Growth ...virtual wall © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

74. Leader in his/her Environment Rising Growth A B Finding Platform for Growth Resonating with Environment In which state do you feel most at ease? Idea Nurture Niches Stable Growth Uncertain Growth Process Distancing Repeating Proven Success Creating Level Playing Field D C Declining Growth © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

75. LET’s make up the balance Organizational State Leadership Archetype B A Builder Searches for niches Concerned with external inequalities Leads by vision and passion Builds individual and collective loyalty Transformer Searches for meaning Concerned with internal potential Brings innovators together Searches for platform for growth Rising growth Discover/ Innovate Nurture/ Niches Stable growth Uncertain growth Grower Reproduces, repeats success Concerned with internal inequalities Introduces specialists and processes Leads by culture, sets boundaries Confronter Seeks turnaround Confronts established thinking Unlocks and opens organization Shakes up and purifies Confront/ Purify Specialize/ Optimize Declining growth D C Leaders caught in web of neural networks… Change possible… © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

76. Deepening the understanding of Peers and Organization Let us introduce ourselves B A Builder Searches for niches Concerned with external inequalities Leads by vision and passion Builds individual and collective loyalty Transformer Searches for meaning Concerned with internal potential Brings innovators together Searches for platform for growth Grower Reproduces, repeats success Concerned with internal inequalities Leads by culture, sets boundaries Introduces specialists and processes Confronter Seeks turnaround Confronts established thinking Unlocks and opens organization Shakes up and purifies D C © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

77. organizational EMERGENCE Human Organization? Stage of Development Behavior-Pattern Emergence Leadership Archetype State D Confronter Creating a Level Playing Field Undertermined Environment A Transformer Finding a New Platform for Growth Amplification / Transmission B Builder Resonating with the Environment Emergence / Selection of Behavior Pattern C Grower Repeating Success Ever More Efficiently Inequality-Inspired Behavior-Pattern Reproduction D Confronter Creating a Level Playing Field Undertermined Environment Shared by all forms of organization Specific to human organization If organizations emerge by themselves, then what is the role of a leader? © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

78. Emergence of organization Organization Leadership Archetype B A Builder Searches for niches Concerned with external inequalities Leads by vision and passion Builds individual and collective loyalty Transformer Searches for meaning Concerned with internal potential Brings innovators together Searches for platform for growth Rising growth Discover/ Innovate Nurture/ Niches Stable growth Uncertain growth Grower Reproduces, repeats success Concerned with internal inequalities Introduces specialists and processes Leads by culture, sets boundaries Confronter Seeks turnaround Confronts established thinking Unlocks and opens organization Shakes up and purifies Confront/ Purify Specialize/ Optimize Declining growth D C Leaders caught in web of neural networks… Change possible… © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

79. EXAMPLES In the following examples, an evolving organization or society often forces leaders to function in a role that may not be their natural one. This leaves a largely unused opportunity to identify leaders whose natural role fits the needs of an evolving organization or society. © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

80. HISTORICAL EXAMPLES Muhammad ISLAM about 600 CE Paul CHRISTIANITY about 0 CE BUDDHISM about 600 BCE Builder Rising growth Jesus of Nazareth Gautama Buddha Discover/ Innovate Nurture/ Niches Transformer Stable growth Uncertain growth Confront/ Purify Specialize/ Optimize Abû Bakr Grower Declining growth Confronter John the Baptist © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

81. CORPORATE EXAMPLES MARKS & SPENCER Stuart Rose GENERAL ELECTRIC GE has made a break with its promote- from-within tradition - † DIGITAL EQUIPMENT Ken Olsen – Gordon Bell APPLE COMPUTERS Steve Jobs † ABN AMRO BANK the changes are tough on the many who aren’t ‘dreamer types’ Builder Rising growth Discover/ Innovate Nurture/ Niches Luc VandeVelde Transformer Gil Amelio Business Week May 28, 2005 Stable growth Uncertain growth Confront/ Purify Specialize/ Optimize John Sculley Jack Welch Grower Ken Olsen Jan Kalff GE loses AAA-rating and $264 billion in value - did not groom super- managers after all GE wants to sell Appliance Division GE sells Chemical Division to SABIC Declining growth Confronter May, 2007 May, 2008 Rijkman Groenink 2003 2007 Michael Spindler Reuters March, 2009 Bob Palmer Jeffrey Immelt 2005 2007 2008 2003 2009 Breakpoint © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

82. US PRESIDENTIAL EXAMPLES George H W Bush Lyndon B Johnson Andrew Johnson 1933 – George Washington 1789 – 1817 Builder 2009 Presidential Candidate Rising growth Abraham Lincoln James Madison Discover/ Innovate Nurture/ Niches Ronald Reagan John Kennedy Transformer Franklin Roosevelt – Harry Truman Richard Nixon – Gerald Ford Stable growth Uncertain growth Confront/ Purify Specialize/ Optimize John Adams Bill Clinton Grower Declining growth Confronter Thomas Jefferson 1857 – 1869 James Buchanan Dwight Eisenhower Jimmy Carter George W Bush Breakpoint © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

83. US PRESIDENTIAL EXAMPLES George H W Bush Lyndon B Johnson Andrew Johnson 1933 – George Washington 1789 – 1817 Builder Rising growth Abraham Lincoln James Madison Discover/ Innovate Nurture/ Niches Ronald Reagan Barack Obama John Kennedy Transformer Franklin Roosevelt – Harry Truman Richard Nixon – Gerald Ford Stable growth Uncertain growth Confront/ Purify Specialize/ Optimize John Adams Bill Clinton Grower Declining growth Confronter Thomas Jefferson 1857 – 1869 James Buchanan Dwight Eisenhower Jimmy Carter George W Bush Breakpoint © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

84. SOUTH-AFRICAN LEADERSHIP EXAMPLES Nelson Mandela South Africa – Rainbow Republic South Africa – Pre-Rainbow Republic Builder Rising growth Future Transformer Discover/ Innovate Nurture/ Niches F W de Klerk Transformer Stable growth Uncertain growth Confront/ Purify Specialize/ Optimize Thabo Mbeki Grower Declining growth Confronter Jacob Zuma Breakpoint © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

85. RUSSIAN LEADERSHIP EXAMPLES Boris Yeltsin Russian Federation Soviet Union Builder Rising growth Future Transformer Mikhail Gorbachev Discover/ Innovate Nurture/ Niches Transformer Stable growth Uncertain growth Confront/ Purify Specialize/ Optimize Vladimir Putin Grower Declining growth Confronter Dmitry Medvedev Breakpoint © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

86. Uk leadership EXAMPLES John Major United Kingdom Builder Rising growth Margaret Thatcher David Cameron Discover/ Innovate Nurture/ Niches Transformer Stable growth Uncertain growth Confront/ Purify Specialize/ Optimize Tony Blair Grower Declining growth Confronter Gordon Brown Breakpoint © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

87. Builder Transformer Grower Confronter Zimbabwean leadership EXAMPLES Rhodesia – Zimbabwe Rising growth Future Transformer Discover/ Innovate Nurture/ Niches Stable growth Uncertain growth Confront/ Purify Specialize/ Optimize Ian Smith Declining growth Robert Mugabe Breakpoint © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

88. North-Korean leadership EXAMPLES Developed the principles of communism into a Stalin-like state ideology which he referred to as Juche Kim iI - Sung Builder Japanese Occupation Korean War Rising growth Future Transformer Discover/ Innovate Nurture/ Niches Transformer Expanded and fine-tuned government apparatus and helped it develop pre-programmed responses (however unpredictable) to signals from within and without society Stable growth Uncertain growth Confront/ Purify Specialize/ Optimize Kim Jong-il Grower Declining growth Confronter Breakpoint Kim Jong-un? Will try to purify society by confronting complacency and ill-fated behavioral responses, yet sows the seeds for the internal breakup of society – May 29 2009 © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

89. Builders Transformers Growers Confronters Theoretical physics leadership EXAMPLES Bohr Einstein Heisenberg Maxwell Planck Poincaré Schrödinger R&Q Theorists Topos Theorists Baez Brouwer Döring Grothendieck Heyting Isham Rising growth Discover/ Innovate Nurture/ Niches Calabi Green Scherk Schwarz Veneziano Witten Yau Stable growth Uncertain growth Confront/ Purify Specialize/ Optimize Declining growth String Theorists Lisi Rovelli Smolin Wilson LQG Theorists Breakpoint © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

90. civilization EXAMPLES Pre-Harappan Farming Cultures 6500 BCE Early Technologyand Expansion 6500-2600 BCE Theory Epistemology Destruction by Tectonic Event 1900-1800 BCE Indus Valley Civilization 2600-1900 BCE Philosophy Application The rise and annihilation of the Indus Valley Civilization The development and domains of knowledge © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

91. Nucleus Growth Bubble Formation Turbulence Bubble Expansion Energy-transformation EXAMPLES P TMin Energy Energy TMax V Phase transitions in non- dissipative non-linear system Carnot-cycle approximation of multiple heat-reservoir system © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

92. religion Transformer Builder Grower(s) Confronter Leadership Type Again today... © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

93. Introductory Topics A New Window Onto Our World Improving Organization, Applied Technology The Emzine Phenomenon Evidence in Society Parallels of Organization, Physics of Organization Examples of Organizational Emergence © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

95. Market inequalities

96. Temperature inequalities

97. Energy inequalities

98. Any inequalities© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

100. The capacity to improve on their own emergenceThey are self-referential or able to learn from self Nature is out to improve the efficiency of forms of organization – organizations spontaneously emerge to minimize the inequalities in an era or environment © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

101. Improving human organization Identify where you are to learn where you go Transformer Builder Grower Confronter Leadership Archetype © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

102. Improving human organization Identify where you are to learn where you go Visible Outcomes Group Cohesion Source of Momentum Group Perspective Elasticity of Social Forces Inelastic Inward/ Closed Outward/ Open Autonomy Integration Vision Individual Organization Outward/ Open Inward/ Closed Culture Inelastic Fragmentation Interdependence Yin-Yang Features Behavioral Domain © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

103. Discover/ Innovate Nurture/ Niches Confront/ Purify Specialize/ Optimize Improving human organization Identify where you are to learn where you go Visible Outcomes Inclination Growth Rate Rising Uncertain Stable Declining Universal Features Behavioral Domain © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

104. Improving human organization Predicting problems, solutions and leadership needs Steve Jobs APPLE Builder Rising growth Discover/ Innovate Nurture/ Niches Why Apple is Building a Massive $1 Billion Data Center… From Features to Forecast Transformer Gil Amelio Stable growth Uncertain growth Confront/ Purify Specialize/ Optimize Paving the way for Job’s successor… Grower My money's on turning iTunes into an iMedia store, and developing iWork and iLife into the Cloud. Declining growth Confronter Michael Spindler Breakpoint © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

106. Once Accountant with PWC

107. Once GM’s CFOGENERAL MOTORS R. Stempel - J. Smale Builder Rising growth Roger B. Smith Discover/ Innovate Nurture/ Niches From Features to Forecast Transformer Stable growth Uncertain growth Confront/ Purify Specialize/ Optimize John F. Smith Grower Declining growth Confronter Fritz Henderson - CEO A true Transformer? Rick Wagoner Breakpoint © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

108. Improving human organization Predicting problems, solutions and leadership needs Dan Akerson GENERAL MOTORS Builder Rising growth Discover/ Innovate Nurture/ Niches From Features to Forecast Transformer Stable growth Uncertain growth Confront/ Purify Specialize/ Optimize Edward Whitacre Grower Declining growth Confronter Rick Wagoner Breakpoint © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

109. Improving human organization Predicting problems, solutions and leadership needs Fujio Chō TOYOTA Builder Rising growth Discover/ Innovate Nurture/ Niches From Features to Forecast Transformer Stable growth Uncertain growth Confront/ Purify Specialize/ Optimize Katsuaki Watanabe Grower Declining growth Confronter Akio Toyoda Return of the Yoda http://anewleadershipethos.blogspot.com/ Breakpoint © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

110. Improving human organization Predicting share-price evolutions Rising Declining Rising 1981 2001 1972 Jack Welch,GROWER R. H. Jones,BUILDER Jeffrey Immelt,CONFRONTER © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

111. Improving human organization Predicting share-price evolutions Rising Rising Declining Undetermined 2003 1981 1996 1990 Robert Stempel- John G. Smale,BUILDER John F. Smith,GROWER Rick Wagoner,CONFRONTER Roger B. Smith,TRANSFORMER © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

112. Improving human organization Predicting share-price evolutions Rising Declining Rising Undetermined 1985 1996 1993 1977 Steve Jobs,BUILDER Gil Amelio,TRANSFORMER Michael Spindler,CONFRONTER John Sculley,GROWER Steve Jobs,BUILDER © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

113. Improving human organization Predicting share-price evolutions Dimension of Outcomes Consequence 1 2 3 4 Cause 1 2 3 4 Behavioral Domain 4-State Universality of Behavior-Pattern Species Emergence © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

114. Improving human organization Predicting share-price evolutions SHARE-PRICE EVOLUTION REVENUE GROWTH RATE LEADERSHIP ARCHETYPE State Uncertain Growth Transformer A Undetermined B Rising Rising Growth Builder Rising Grower C Stable Growth Declining Confronter D Declining Growth Improve share-price evolution by appointing the right leader © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

116. Search, selection and hiring policies

117. Relationship with clients, suppliers and acquisition targets

118. Relationship with other (internal) organizations

119. The strategies you choose© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

120. reflections HOW DO YOU BECOME A THIRD-MILLENIUM LEADER? A NEW LEADERSHIP ETHOS © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

122. Leadership is not about managing time but about simultime

123. Leadership is not eternal but temporal

124. Leadership is not about leaders but about organization - Ubuntu2 3 1 4 Nature is out to improve the efficiency of forms of organization – organizations spontaneously emerge to minimize the inequalities in an era or environment © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

125. Improving human organization Creating meta-awareness: A practical approach toward organizational effectiveness External / Internal Conditions The traditional playing field of leaders Double Loop Loop 2 Goals Single Loop Loop 1 Roles / Action Awareness Nation / Company / Business Unit / Team © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

126. Improving human organization Creating meta-awareness: A practical approach toward organizational effectiveness Awareness Stove Pipes of Awareness External / Internal Conditions External / Internal Conditions Loop 2 Loop 2 Goals Goals Y X Loop 1 Loop 1 Maybe separated spatially but mostly separated by time… Roles / Action Roles / Action © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

127. Improving human organization Builder maintaining Creating meta-awareness: A practical approach toward organizational effectiveness Rising growth / Discover/ Innovate Nurture/ Niches Transformer Stable growth Uncertain growth Confront/ Purify Specialize/ Optimize Grower Global Gauge Symmetry Meta-Awareness Declining growth Confronter External / Internal Conditions External / Internal Conditions Loop 2 Loop 2 Goals Goals Awareness Loop 1 Loop 1 Local Symmetry Roles / Action Roles / Action X Y Maybe separated spatially but mostly separated by time… © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

128. IMPROVING human Organization Builder Creating meta-awareness: One clock, two times Rising growth Discover/ Innovate Nurture/ Niches Transformer SimulTime Remember… Congruent Simultaneity Stable growth Uncertain growth Confront/ Purify Specialize/ Optimize Grower Declining growth Confronter Global Gauge Symmetry Time Interval External / Internal Conditions Loop 2 Goals Loop 1 Roles / Action Local Symmetry ORGANIZATION © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

130. A time which is not linear but of cycles, endless in the cosmic life

132. A time that is like a dream that passes

133. A time that governs on earth Local Symmetry Dimension of Outcomes Egyptologist Prof Jan Assmann:Moses The Egyptian. Harvard University Press, 1998andLa notion d’éternitédansl’Egypteancienne © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

134. Improving human organization Creating meta-awareness: In the footsteps of early explorers One clock, two times One world, two views Simultime Interval Sea-faring explorers shortened their journey to trade destinations by cutting corners through Earth’s newfound 3rd dimension of space Soon, we will shorten our journey to novel forms of organization by cutting corners through the newfound 2nd dimension of time © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

135. Improving human organization Creating meta-awareness: The third loop Triple Loop Double Loop Single Loop Meta-Awareness Awareness Nations / Companies / Business Units / Teams © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

136. Applied technology A practical approach toward organizational effectiveness - The third loop EXPERT SYSTEM Emzine Profile Identification Expert Questionnaire © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

137. Applied technology A practical approach toward organizational effectiveness - The third loop Three-step build-up of organizational meta-awareness © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

138. Applied technology A practical approach toward organizational effectiveness - The third loop Am I the right leader for my organization? © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

139. Am I the right leader?

140. Am I the right leader for my organization?

141. Applied technology Analyze fit © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

142. Applied technology Stage-specific knowledge management Knowledge Management Builder Rising growth Fuzzy information Heisenberg’s world Discover/ Innovate Nurture/ Niches Transformer Stable growth Uncertain growth Confront/ Purify Specialize/ Optimize Exact information Newton’s world Grower Declining growth Confronter © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

143. Applied technology Reversing the act of creation Dimension of Outcomes 2 3 1 4 Behavior-Pattern Species Environment-Sustained Organization Environment Trigger Induction of Behaviors Kick-off Event Requisite Component Behavior Pattern Desired Organizational Characteristics 4 States of Organizational Emergence Population Size of Best-Fitting Behavior-Pattern Species Cause Undertermined Environment Amplification / Transmission Emergence / Selection of Behavior Pattern(s) Inequality-Inspired Behavior-Pattern Reproduction 4-State Universality of Emergence Behavioral Domain Toward nuclear fusion now… © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

144. Applied technology Departing from Congruent Simultaneity - in the Social Sciences, Material Sciences and Nuclear-Fusion Research New ORGANIZATIONAL DESIGN APPROACH based onBehavior-Pattern Species IBM’s “Self-assembling” Circuit Typical Design Approach Environment Target: Congruent Simultaneity Desired, Often- Unexpected Results Tinkering with Gradients Sustainable Business or Organization Reward & Punishment Gradients Social Sciences Novel Insulating Polymer Chip with Trillions Nano-M Vacuums Material Sciences Temperature, Material, Interval Gradients Sustainable Organization Of Fusing Nuclei Nuclear Fusion Research Inner-Star Temperature Gradient Future Design Approach Simulation of Behavior-Pattern Species Best-Achievable Environment of Gradients Desired Result Selection Based on Level of Congruent Simultaneity

145. HOW SOCIETY WILL DEAL WITH INEQUALITIES Leadership Trend Breakthroughs Awareness Timeless Leadership Built to Last Due Diligence Creation, Causality Equality, Dependence Time Interval Sein, Being Meta-awareness Temporal Leadership Grown to Achieve Future Diligence Self-creation, Conditioning Inequality, Interdependence Simultime Dasein, Becoming TO FROM Emzine © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

146. 5-Minute VIDEO SUMMARY CLICK HERE TO RUN © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

147. www.marcvandererve.org © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

148. QUESTIONS Learning Points for Leaders Learning Points for Management Consultants and M&A Experts Learning Points for Leadership Coaches Learning Points for HR/Executive Search Consultants Learning Points for Stock Analysts Learning Points for Physicists, Economists and Philosophers © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

149. WHAT CONSULTANTS TYPICALLY FOCUS ON Builder Rising growth Discover/ Innovate Nurture/ Niches Transformer Stable growth Uncertain growth Confront/ Purify Specialize/ Optimize The Sunny World of Growth (The world of Horus) Grower Declining growth Confronter © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

150. WHAT CONSULTANTS TYPICALLY FOCUS ON Rather than evolving phenomena, they identify static organizational taxonomies at best Leadership driven Builder Rising growth Discover/ Innovate Nurture/ Niches Transformer Market driven Stable growth Uncertain growth Confront/ Purify Specialize/ Optimize The Sunny World of Growth (The world of Horus) Grower Performance driven Declining growth Confronter Knowledge driven © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

151. WHAT CONSULTANTS TYPICALLY FOCUS ON Organizations are emergent phenomena Builder Rising growth Discover/ Innovate Nurture/ Niches Transformer Stable growth Uncertain growth Confront/ Purify Specialize/ Optimize The Hidden World of Rebirth (The world of Set) The Sunny World of Growth (The world of Horus) Ra Grower Declining growth Confronter J. A. Schumpeter.Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy. Routledge - 2006 © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict

152. Discover/ Innovate Nurture/ Niches Confront/ Purify Specialize/ Optimize IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION Circumstances may cause a leadership comfort-zone change Organization Perspective Inclination Inward/ Closed Outward/ Open M/P/P Structure Functional Structure Yin-Yang Features Universal Outward/ Open Inward/ Closed Functional Structure M/P/P Structure Note: M/P/P = Market/Product/Process Transformer Builder Grower Confronter © Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict