This document summarizes the potential spread of a biological agent released at Dulles International Airport on April 16, 2014. Maps show the spread of the infection via commercial flights over various time periods, assuming each plane carries 75 infected people traveling at 500 knots and that each infected person then infects 5 people per hour after landing. The conclusion recommends Idaho, Montana, and parts of North and South Dakota as the best locations to set up safe zones due to their isolation from the airports involved in the modeled outbreak.

1. 01:00 Next Day (Elapsed Time: 20 h) 05:00 Release of Biological Agent April 16, 2014
Map Source: Stone Bridge High School GIS Class, 2014
Data Source: ESRI taken from 2010 U.S. Census Bureau Data;
By: Jon Emch and Kevin Cascio
Airport Locations taken from OpenFlights (openflights.org/data.html)
Arrival and Departure Times retrieved on April 16th, 2014 from
FlightStats (flightstats.com)
Drive-Time Polygons produced on ArcGis.com
Data Production: April 22, 2014
Base map Source: Source: Esri, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, i-cubed, USDA, USGS, AEX, Getmapping,
Aerogrid, IGN, IGP, swisstopo, and the GIS User Community
´
Bioterrorist Attack
Infectious Pathogen Transmission Via Air and Road Traffic
23:00 (Elapsed Time: 18 h)
21:00 (Elapsed Time: 16 h)
19:00 (Elapsed Time: 14 h)
17:00 (Elapsed Time: 12 h) 15:00 (Elapsed Time: 10 h)
13:00 (Elapsed Time: 8 h)
11:00 (Elapsed Time: 6 h)
09:00 (Elapsed Time: 4 h)
07:00 (Elapsed Time: 2 h)
This investigation focuses on the spread of a highly contagious pathogen via commercial flights
originating from Dulles International Airport. The offset maps show the possible speed of the
infection at various times. The biological attack occurs at 05:00 on April 16th, 2014
´
Due to computing restraints, it is assumed
that each airplane travels at a cruising speed
of 500 knots and that each plane contains
75 infected people. It is also assumed that
once the infected land, each person will
infect 5 people per hour.
Abstract
Conclusion
The best states to set up safe zones in are: Idaho, Montana, and parts of North and South
Dakota. This is because of their relative isolation from the airports that were flown to from
Dulles Airport that day.
Legend
μ Dulles Airport
o Dulles Airport Connections
Flight Vectors
Spread After Airplane Landing
1 Hour Spread
2 Hour Spread
3 Hour Spread
4 Hour Spread
5 Hour Spread
1 Hour Range
2 Hour Range
3 Hour Range
4 Hour Range
5 Hour Range
Hours Away from Dulles by Plane