Sumeet Bagadia, Head of Commodity and Currency Research at Destimoney Securities, provided his outlook on gold and the Indian currency in the near future: 1) Gold has a high probability of falling below Rs. 25,000 in the next one to two months as the dollar index is trading at 10-month high levels, which typically causes commodities like gold to sell off sharply. 2) The Indian rupee is expected to trade in a range of Rs. 55 to Rs. 56.80 in the next month, with downside targets of Rs. 56.20 and Rs. 56.50 for those shorting the rupee. The rupee may strengthen if it breaks below

1. FEATURE
6
‘Gold may fall below Rs 25,000 in
next 1-2 months’
WWhhaatt iiss yyoouurr oouuttllooookk oonn GGoolldd?? WWiillll tthhee lleevveellss
ooff 2255,,000000 bbee aa rreeaalliittyy iinn tthhee nneeaarr ffuuttuurree??
Yes, Gold has very high probability of
touching 25,000 levels soon. Commodity
markets are inversely correlated with Dollar
Index and at present Dollar Index is trading at
10 month high levels. In the past, we have
seen that whenever Dollar Index moves up,
commodities are in for a sharp selloff
especially Gold. At present, Gold is trading at
around 26,500 levels. For the short term we
are bearish on precious metals and expect
Gold to move down below Rs.25,000 in next
one to two months.
SSiillvveerr hhaass sseeeenn ttrreemmeennddoouuss eerroossiioonn iinn vvaalluuee..
DDoo yyoouu sseeee tthhee ddoowwnnffaallll ccoonnttiinnuuiinngg??
Silver is likely to slide in the short term as it
will follow Gold. As the downfall in Silver
was sharp, the present pullback in prices can
be best said as a short covering or a relief
rally. On charts, Silver still looks weak, so any
pullback in prices should be best used as a
selling opportunity for the short term target of
Rs.40,000 and Rs.38,000.
IInnddiiaann ccuurrrreennccyy hhaass sshhaarrppllyy ddeepprreecciiaatteedd
tthhrroouugghh tthhee wweeeekk.. WWhhaatt aarree tthhee iimmmmeeddiiaattee
lleevveellss ttoo wwaattcchh oouutt ffoorr??
Indian currency faced a sharp depreciation
with the Rupee recently hitting a eight month
low at 56.07. Further, looking at the trend it
seems that rupee will move in a range of
Rs.1.80 which is Rs.55 on the higher side to
Rs 56.80 on the lower side.
For next one month it’s better to go short
on rupee for the targets of Rs.56.20 and Rs.
56.50. Rupee will get strengthen once when
it breaks and gives a close below the levels of
54.70.
BBrreenntt ccrruuddee iiss ttrraaddiinngg aabboovvee tthhee $$110000 mmaarrkk..
WWhhaatt ddoo tthhee cchhaarrttss ssuuggggeesstt??
Brent Crude looks weak on charts as it has
already given a correction of approximately
$15 in last one month. Looking at the chart, it
seems that the same trend will continue for
the next few weeks.
Brent has major resistance at $106.50.
Any trend reversal can be seen only if it
manages to break and give close above
$106.50 levels. So till the time Brent is
trading below $106.50, it’s a weak chart and
on downside it can touch levels of $98 and
$96 over the next few weeks.
BBaassee mmeettaallss hhaadd aa rroouugghh ppaattcchh oovveerr tthhee ppaasstt
oonnee mmoonntthh.. IIss tthhiiss ttrreenndd sseett ttoo ccoonnttiinnuuee??
Base metals are likely to remain weak for the
time horizon of one to two months. In such a
case, any pullback or upside move in
basemetals should be used as selling
opportunity for the likely downside move
of 5 to 8%.
For the next one
month, it’s better to
go short on rupee
for the targets of Rs
56.20 and Rs
56.50. Rupee will
get strengthen once
it breaks and gives
a close below the
levels of 54.70
Sumeet Bagadia, Head (Commodity and Currency Research), Destimoney Securities spoke
to Jinsy Mathew on his outlook on gold and local currency in near term . Edited excerpts:

2. 7
IN NEWS
IN BRIEF
Aneesh Phadnis
J
et Airways shareholders on Friday
gave approval for sale of 24%
equity to Etihad Airways but the
airline management deferred the
proposal to amend the company's
article of association following protests
from shareholders and objections from
Securities and Exchange Board of India.
Etihad deal to improve profits, cut
costs: Naresh Goyal Jet Airways chairman
Naresh Goyal will dilute 5% of his share
holding in an offer for sale either on May
29 or 30. Goyal holds 80% in Jet Airways
and the dilution is required to conform to
Sebi's share holding norms. Vice
president (investor relations) K G
Vishwanath told share holders that totally
there will be a cash infusion of $750
million (Rs 4,169 crore) in both debt and
equity as a part of the deal. This cash
infusion will help the airline to reduce
debt from $2.1 billion (Rs 11,500 crore ) to
$ 1.5 billion (Rs 8,200 crore), he said.
Goyal told shareholders the relaxation
of FDI rules was a game changer and the
alliance with Etihad will enable Jet to
increase network, reduce costs, improve
profit and grow in a sustainable manner.
The airline management put on hold
the resolution to amend the articles of
association as it has led to shareholders'
protest. The AoA gives Etihad say in
important matters like appointment of
vice chairman, auditors etc despite being
classified as a public shareholder.
Fortis to get Rs 1,452 cr for
stake sale in DCA
Govt to take up GMR project
issue with Committee of Secy
Press Trust of India
Fortis Healthcare today said its
Singapore-based subsidiary will
receive AUD 270.38 million (around Rs
1,452 crore) on completion of its stake
sale in Dental Corporation Australia
(DCA) to Bupa Australia Health.
"Supreme Court of Victoria on May 24,
2013 approved the scheme of
arrangement for Bupa Australia Health Pty
Ltd to complete its full acquisition of
Dental Corporation Holdings Ltd and
consequently, Bupa will acquire 100% of
the shares in Dental Corporation at
completion on May 31, 2013," Fortis said.
The company's aforesaid step down
subsidiary, will receive AUD 2.347 per
Dental Corporation share aggregating to
AUD 270.38 million, it added.
PURAVANKARA SHARE SALE
VIA OFS OVERSUBSCRIBED
1.46 TIMES
Realty firm Puravankara Projects
promoters' offer to sell over 1.41
crore shares via OFS was today
oversubscribed by 1.46 times,
enabling them to raise Rs 115
crore and reduce stake to meet
SEBI guidelines.
As per the data available with
BSE, bids for 2,05,71,584 shares
were received till 1530 hrs, which
is 1.46 times than the offer of
1,41,35,576 shares.
UTTAM GALVA Q4 NET
PROFIT DOWN 29.52% AT
RS 28.19 CR
Hit by a 23% decline in sales,
Uttam Galva Steels today reported
29.52% fall in standalone net profit
at Rs 28.19 crore for the fourth
quarter ended March31, 2013.
The company, in which world's
largest steel maker ArcelorMittal
holds 29.05% stake, had reported a
net profit of Rs 40 crore in the
same quarter of 2011-12. It,
however, did not publish
consolidated results for the quarter.
Uttam Galva's net sales was
down 23.18% at Rs 953.75 crore
during the last quarter.
MRPL REPORTS RS 61.90
CR NET LOSS IN Q4
Mangalore Refinery and
Petrochemicals Ltd (MRPL) today
reported a net loss of Rs 61.90
crore in the March quarter on the
back of sharp drop in refining
margins.
MRPL, a subsidiary of state
explorer ONGC, reported a net loss
of Rs 61.90 crore in the January-
March quarter as compared to Rs
601.97 crore profit in the same
period of the previous fiscal, the
company said in a statement here.
The company earned $1.98 on
turning every barrel of crude oil
into fuel.
Press Trust of India
In a bid to salvage the stalled
Kishangarh-Udaipur-Ahmedabad
highway project of GMR Infrastructure,
the Ministry of Road Transport and
Highways will soon approach the
Committee of Secretaries.
The difference between the present
value of cash inflows and the present
value of cash outflows is the net present
value of a project. According to sources,
GMR Infrastructure was ready to start the
project with some preconditions,
including making piece-meal payments.
The company has also said it would
pay about 50% of the amount to restart
the work on project at present and pay
the remaining sum in the subsequent
years, including interest.
Jet Airways shareholders
approve stake sale to Etihad