Equity Market Overview
2
Market Insights
3
Interest rate, geo-politics, and inflation
adding to volatility in H1FY23
Strong bottom-up earnings can trigger over
the next 2-3 years:
Rebound in Credit Growth
Private Sector Investment demand
House-hold Capex demand
Beneficiaries of Govt. growth schemes and
China plus one demand
After years of downside, earnings are finally
looking up in 2HFY23
Incipient signs of pick-up in capex trends
look encouraging
National Elections in a couple of years
makes government pro-spending after years
of reforms
PLI/Growth schemes to add 1-2% of
structural growth over medium-term
Valuations have been corrected meaningfully
The Earnings & Valuation Picture
The Macro Picture
Earnings growth on a strong footing
Nifty 50 EPS Growth – FY 23: expected to grow at a healthy double digit
Source: Bloomberg estimates
6%
4%
10%
3% 2%
11%
-1%
12%
-5%
19%
40%
18%
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E
Nifty 50 EPS Growth
246 236
285 310 333
372 402 404 386 418 414
480 457
544
733
864
1002
Nifty 50 EPS
4
Valuations are more reasonable now
Source: Edelweiss Research
Market correction so far has been entirely
driven by valuation de-rating.
Hence, as a result, 1Y forward valuations
are now at 18x – 1Y forward – in line with
the last 5Y average.
5
Corporate profit to GDP ratio at a decade high
6
The corporate profit to GDP ratio rebounded to a decade high of 4.3% for the Nifty-500 Universe.
GDP grew 19.5% YoY in FY22, while corporate profit rose at a faster rate of 48% YoY (for the Nifty-500 Universe)
Source: Motilal Research
2.7
3.3
3.7 3.8
4.6
5.1
4
4.6 4.6
4.2
3.9 3.8
3.3
2.9
3.2
2.8 2.8
2.2
3.4
4.3
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Corporate profit to GDP
Average 3.7
Despite 10% declines every year, 3 out of 4 years have ended with positive returns
7
Only 9 years out of last 42 years market ended with negative returns
Data Source: ACE MF
Markets: More positive than negative years
8
Investing during bad times has been rewarding
Data Source: ACE MF, analysis based on rolling returns of Nifty 50 index starting from 1st Jan 2000 to 28th June 2022, Past Performance may or may not sustain in future
12.01%
13.22%
16.40%
22.36%
22.68%
20.37%
Between 20% and more
Between 10 to 20%
Between 0 to 10%
Between -10 to 0%
Between -20 to -10%
less than -20%
…the Next 5 year average CAGR were
Investing,
when
1 year
returns
were
Equity markets and interest rate cycles
Source: Bloomberg and internal analysis, Past performance may or may not sustain in future
Equity markets have performed well during interest rate hike cycles
9
Time frame
Duration
(no of
days)
Interest Rate
Phase
Policy Rate
Change in Policy
Rate(bps)
Nifty 50 Absolute
returns during the
period
18-09-2004 11-10-2008 1484 Hike Repo 6% to 9% 300 89.2%
11-10-2008 13-02-2010 490 Easing Repo 9% to 4.75% -425 47.2%
13-02-2010 10-03-2012 756 Hike Repo 4.75% to 8.50% 375 10.5%
10-03-2012 20-09-2013 559 Easing Repo 8.50% to 7.25% -125 12.7%
20-09-2013 15-01-2015 482 Hike Repo 7.25% to 8.00% 75 41.3%
15-01-2015 06-06-2018 1238 Easing Repo 8% to 6% -200 25.8%
06-06-2018 07-02-2019 246 Hike Repo 6% to 6.50% 50 3.6%
07-02-2019 08-04-2022 1156 Easing Repo 6.5% to 4.00% -250 60.7%
08-04-2022 28-06-2022 81 Hike Ongoing 90 -10.9%
Key trends in India
India to see best
decade of growth and
transformation
Rising income creating
demand for better
goods and services
Rise in internet users
enabling growth of
innovative business models
Shift towards organized
sector making strong
businesses stronger
10
“Diversification May Preserve Wealth, But Concentration Builds Wealth”
- Warren Buffett
A focus portfolio of 25 to 30 stocks
with strong business models
Benchmark and sector agnostic
approach
Multi-cap portfolio
Investment strategy
12
Brands
Buy Established & Emerging
brands across B2B and B2C
segments
Market share gainers
Buy market-share leaders
and emergingmarket-share
gainers
Innovators
Buy Innovators, Adaptors and
Enablers of change in business
dynamics
3 timeless investing opportunities in 1 portfolio
13
Investing Ideology
The above is the investment ideology which will be followed by the fund manager. However, this can change based on market dynamics, economic scenarios etc. For detailed
investment strategy, risk factors of the schemes please refer to SID available on website
BRANDS
14
“Branding is simply a more efficient way to sell things”
- Al Ries
Data Source: Brand Finance report 2021, The representational logos used does not imply any affiliation or
endorsement by the brands. These are for illustration purpose only and does not indicate that the fund will buy this
stocks.
$ 21.28 Bn $ 8.66 Bn $ 8.40 Bn $ 8.14 Bn
$ 6.59 Bn $ 6.07 Bn $ 5.84 Bn $ 5.52 Bn
$ 5.38 Bn $ 4.81 Bn
Top 10 Brands by their brand equity value
$164 Bn Valuation of top 100 Brands in India
Brands exist across wide range of sectors (Top 100)
India - A house of strong brands
15
Sector Value In USD Bn.
Engineering & Construction 27.65
Banking 27.32
IT Services 20.48
Oil & Gas 19.72
Automobiles 14.59
Telecoms 12.07
Insurance 8.89
Food 6.89
Retail 6.68
Other 20.58
Total 164.90
Sector Number of Brands
Banking 17
Engineering & Construction 8
Retail 7
IT Services 7
Automobiles 7
Oil & Gas 6
Food 6
Tech 5
Mining 5
Miscellaneous 32
Total 100
Innovation
Consistent delivery
standards
High marketing
spends
Distinguished
Product/Service
Pull from customers
Strong IP
Competitive
advantage
Superior return ratios
Bargaining power
Higher shareholder
value overtime
Strong brands create higher shareholder value
BRANDS
01
02
03
16
Strong brands are biggest wealth creators
Top 10 companies with strong brand value have 56% share amongst top 100 biggest wealth creators (by value) in last 5 years
Source: Motilal Oswal Research. Stocks are only for illustration purposes. Past performance may not sustain in future
17
Rank Company
Wealth Created (in Rs.
Bn.)
Share%
1 Reliance Industries 9,661 14
2 TCS 7,294 10
3 HDFC Bank 5,182 7
4 Hindustan Unilever 3,427 5
5 Infosys 3,257 5
6 Bajaj Finance 2,592 4
7 ICICI Bank 2,475 4
8 HDFC 2,422 3
9 Kotak Mahindra 2,081 3
10 HCL Tech 1,613 2
Top 10 40,003 56
Top 100 70,815 100
Turn-around Brand
• New product launch
• Management change
• Rise in market-share
Losing Brand
• Lack of innovation
• Shrinking margins
• Loss of market share
Established Brand
• Dominant position in the
sector
• High entry barrier
• Steady earnings growth
Emerging Brand
• Slowly gaining market-
share from leader
• Faster EPS growth
• Valuations re-rating
Movement of shareholder’s value across various stages
Core focus of Edelweiss
Focused Equity Fund
Stages in brand’s life-cycle
18
Brands we will invest in
Brands with dominant position
Huge scope in the underpenetrated market
Have steady earnings growth
Eg: Havells, Infosys and HDFC
Established Brand
Emerging Brand
Brands that are gaining prominence
Trying to capture brand journey
Potential of earning growth along with re-rating
Eg: V-Guard, Persistent and Kansai Nerolac
Stock names are only for illustration purpose. This is not a recommendation and fund may or may not invest in these stocks.
19
Brands have strong return ratios
Note : ROE, Revenue Growth and market cap are on CAGR basis. Market cap growth as of June 2022
Source : Motilal Oswal Research. Stock are only for illustration purpose. Past performance may not sustain in future
20
Company ROE Revenue Growth (last 5 years)
Market Cap Growth
(last 5 years)
HDFC Bank 13%
Britannia 9%
Pidilite 12%
Havells 18%
Titan 17%
Nifty 100 10%
Brands outperform significantly
A portfolio of top 15 brands from Nifty 100 has outperformed significantly in last 5 years
Top 15 Brands Model Portfolio Vs Nifty 100- Performance
Source : Bloomberg, Companies selected are based on internal analysis. This is only for illustration and past performance may not sustain in future. Data as of 28th June, 2022
21
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
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40
45
Jan
2017
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2022
Jun
2022
Brands Nifty 100
MARKET SHARE GAINERS
22
“Market leaders continually chart the changing waters”
- Peter Barron
Market-share gain drives share-holder value
How market-share gainers benefit?
Gaining
Prominence
Sector
Leadership Strategic MOAT
Strong
Financials
Better Returns
Increasing
Market-share
Higher
growth than
sector
Better
operating
leverage
Promising
return ratios
& margins
Higher
share-holder
value
23
Market-share gainers we will invest in
Market-share leaders having a
deep moat
Having a meaningful position
within the sector
Have higher revenue growth rate
than peers over last business cycle
Have better margins and return
ratios than peers over the last
business cycle
Businesses that are gaining
or recapturing prominence
Gain in Market share by
change agents like -
leadership change, product
innovation, strategic
investment, etc
.
Change agents can lead to –
Higher revenue growth rate,
better margins and return
ratios than peers
Consistent
market-share gainers
Emerging
market-share gainers
24
Company
Revenue Growth
(last 5 years)
Market Cap Growth
(last 5 years)
Market Share
18% 32%
Consistently gaining market share due to un-
organized to organized shift
16% 13%*
Private Life insurance players have grown at 15%
vs the industry average of 12% CAGR in last 5 years
27% 40%
Market share enhanced from 27% in FY16 to 50% in
FY21, led by a strong distribution network,
branding, offering of customized & innovative
products and capacity enhancement.
Market share gainers are long-term compounders
Source: Bloomberg, Internal working. The representational logos used does not imply any affiliation or endorsement by the brands. These are for illustration purpose only and does not
indicate that the fund will buy this stocks. Past performance may not sustain in future. Market cap data is as of June 2022.
Note : ROE, Revenue Growth & Market cap growth are on CAGR basis.* Market cap growth for HDFC Life is for last 4 years.
25
Change agents drive market-share and stock price
Source : Bloomberg, Internal working and only for illustration purpose. Past performance may not sustain in future, Data as of 28th June 2022
26
0
500
1000
1500
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3000
3500
4000
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
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Apr-18
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Aug-20
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Apr-22
Jun-22
Titan
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Apr-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
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May-16
Sep-16
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Nestle
0
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Feb-22
Jun-22
ICICI Bank
New CEO appointed 2018 ChangeinManagement2019
Changein CEO2015
ShiftfromUnorganizedtoOrganized
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Apr-17
Jun-17
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Feb-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
Coforge
Market-share gainers outperform significantly
Top 20 market-share gainers across various sectors have generated significant
outperformance over broader market
Note: 20 market share gainers are used to calculate the above returns. Past performance may not sustain. Market-share gainers are selected
based on internal analysis
Source : Bloomberg, Internal working and only for illustration purpose. Past performance may not sustain in future, Data as of 28th June, 2022
27
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan
2017
Mar
2017
May
2017
Jun
2017
Aug
2017
Oct
2017
Nov
2017
Jan
2018
Mar
2018
Apr
2018
Jun
2018
Aug
2018
Sep
2018
Nov
2018
Jan
2019
Feb
2019
Apr
2019
May
2019
Jul
2019
Sep
2019
Oct
2019
Dec
2019
Feb
2020
Mar
2020
May
2020
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2020
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Aug
2021
Sep
2021
Nov
2021
Jan
2022
Feb
2022
Apr
2022
Jun
2022
Top 20 market share gainers Model Portfolio vs Nifty 100 performance
Market Share Gainers Nifty 100
Innovators
28
“Innovation distinguishes between a leader and a follower”
- Steve Jobs
Innovators are new wealth creators
No business is immune to
disruption by new age business
models today
Innovators disrupt old
business models and create
new eco-system
Innovators, adaptors and
enablers of innovation can be
big wealth creators
29
Fertile eco-system for innovators
UPI PAYMENTS SHARE
Digital payment
adoption on rise
SMART PHONE USERS
Large and still rising
smartphone user base
DATA COST /GB
One of the
cheapest data in
the world
INTERNET USERS
Digital Shopping, food
delivery, e-pharmacy
and e-learning adaption
on rise
USAGE PER
USER/MONTH
Smart phone users
Population aged
<34y
Large addressable
population
700mn
80%
Rs 10
12GB
550mn
850mn
Future market potential for innovators
Source : Research Report and internal analysis
30
Sector
Revenue
2020 USD Bn
Revenue
2030 USD Bn
Ed – Tech 1.0 19.7
Renewable
Power
10.0 30.0
Ecommerce
Logistics
2.0 15.4
Online Food
Delivery
1.0 10.0
Shared
Mobility
0.7 1.8
Online
Gaming
0.9 9.2
Innovative
business
model
New business
model fails or turns
out to be a FAD
New business
model turns
successful
End of Innovator
Innovator
Enablers
Adaptors
Disrupted
Business
Buy these businesses
Ignore these businesses
Company which innovated new
business model
Companies which are enabling
innovation
Companies which are adapting to
innovation
Companies which failed to adapt
What kind of businesses we will buy
31
1250
1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
950
900
800
Operators
1. Airtel
2. Vodafone India
3. Idea Cellular
4. Rcom
5. Tata Tele
6. Aircel
7. Unitech
8. MTS
9. Videocon
10. Loop
11. HFCL
12. Stel
13. MTNL
14. BSNL
15. Etisalat
Airtel acquires
Videocon
spectrum in six
circles in
Mar’16
Airtel acquires
Telenor operations
in seven circles in
Feb’17
Rcom announces
merger with Sisterma
(MTS) in Nov’15
Rcom Filed for
bankruptcy and
closed telecom
business in Feb’19
Airtel acquired
consumer business
of TATA Tele in
Oct’17
Vodafone India
merged with Idea
Cellular to form VIL
in Aug’18
Existing Operators
1. Airtel
2. Vodafone Idea
3. Jio
4. MTNL
5. BSNL
Pre Jio Launch Post Jio Launch
(Subscribers
in
Mn)
Case study – Innovator and disruptor
Reduced cost of data in India
Led to rise of smartphone users
Increased internet userbase
Enabled rise of many digital
businesses in India
JIO – The Disruptor
Jio Subscribers (Mn)
426.2
387.5
306.7
2020-21
2019-20
2018-19
Revenue EBITDA
Rs 90,287 Crs Rs 34,035 Crs
Only for illustration and not a recommendation
32
Case study – Enabler and adaptor of disruption
Indian IT Industry - Infosys Ltd
Infosys : % of Revenue from Digital
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
24%
28%
36%
45%
% of Revenue from Digital
FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Indian Telecom Industry - Bharti Airtel Ltd
Bharati adapted the strong disruption form Jio
It reduced data cost and maintained strong Balance Sheet
and kept war-chest ready to spend
Focused on 4G adaption aggressively
Share of Telecom Industry
Fall in data cost driven by JIO disruption and rising internet
penetration led to surge in digital business
Infosys enabled large scale digital transformation in India
It benefited as an enabler to disruption from Jio
BSNL 10%
Vodafone
23%
Airtel 30%
Jio 37%
33
Only for illustration and not a recommendation
Disruptor-Enabler-Adapter - All 3 created wealth
Stock price of Reliance, Infosys and Bharati Airtel in last 5 years
Source : Bloomberg. Stock price performance rebased to 10. This is only for illustration purpose. Past performance may not sustain in future
34
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan
2017
Mar
2017
May
2017
Jun
2017
Aug
2017
Oct
2017
Nov
2017
Jan
2018
Mar
2018
Apr
2018
Jun
2018
Aug
2018
Sep
2018
Nov
2018
Jan
2019
Feb
2019
Apr
2019
May
2019
Jul
2019
Sep
2019
Oct
2019
Dec
2019
Feb
2020
Mar
2020
May
2020
Jul
2020
Aug
2020
Oct
2020
Dec
2020
Jan
2021
Mar
2021
Apr
2021
Jun
2021
Aug
2021
Sep
2021
Nov
2021
Jan
2022
Feb
2022
Apr
2022
Jun
2022
Stock Price Movement (Normalised)
Infosys Ltd Reliance Bharti Airtel
Sectors that may see innovation and disruption
35
Sector Innovator Enabler Adaptor
Automobiles
Electric Vehicle
Manufacturers
Battery and
accessories
manufacturers
Existing car manufacturers that adapt new
technology and strong partnership.
Energy
Renewable energy
Players
Grid providers
Existing power manufacturers shifting to
renewables.
Pharmacy E-pharmacy players
Pharma
manufacturers and
diagnostic chains
Brick & Mortar chemist adopting to e-
pharmacy business model
Shared Mobility Ride sharing players Vehicle manufacturers
Existing car fleet providers adopting to new
age transportation
Why Now?
Brands
Innovators
Market Share
Gainers
Unorganized to Organized: In the post- covid era, the market share of companies in the
unorganized sector is likely to shrink further
Rising Income: As Income rises, Indian consumers are now becoming brand conscious
and are willing to pay premium for better alternatives
To drive growth: India’s thriving start-up ecosystem has helped to drive innovation with
new offerings and pioneering new business models
Disruption is Inevitable: Disruptive growth is an opportunity for investors to capture
significant value creation over time
Under penetration in many sectors will help market leaders to continue to create new
markets
Rise of Middle class: Nearly 55% of the Indian population is expected to be in the
middle class by 2025
Strong becoming stronger: Weak businesses have suffered due to pandemic-related
demand disruption resulting in market share gain by stronger businesses.
36
Being a Benchmark Agnostic portfolio, the strategy may
underperform the benchmark in the short term
Focused funds may suffer from concentration
induced volatility
The fund may be more volatile than broad based
indices or diversified funds
Strategy may underperform during prolonged
economic slow down
What are the risks in this fund
1.
2.
3.
4.
37
For detailed risk factors, pls refer SID of the scheme
Summary
Portfolio Strategy Investing Ideology Why Now?
A focus portfolio with 25 to
30 stocks with strong
business models
Benchmark, Sector and
Market-cap agnostic
approach
Brands – Buy established
and emerging brands
across B2B and B2C
segment
Market-share Gainers – Buy
market-share leaders and
emerging market-share
gainers
Innovators – Buy
innovators, adaptors and
enablers of new business
models
India is set to see one of the
best decades of business
growth and transformation
Rising income is changing
consumer preference towards
better brands
Strong businesses are
becoming stronger due to shift
towards organized sector
Rise in internet users is
enabling innovation and
disruption across many
sectors
3 timeless investing opportunities
in 1 portfolio
38
Investment Philosophy
39
Our philosophy while managing your money
40
Our FAIR investment framework helps in identifying Robust and clean businesses available at acceptable price and also
keeps us informed on their ESG standings
40
Use forensic framework to check accounting quality, board governance standards and ownership
background
Focus on reasonably priced businesses with medium term earnings power rather than short term and be
value/ growth style agnostic
Be informed on ESG factors for businesses that we like to invest and its impact on the environment and
humans at large
Pick well managed businesses having scalable opportunities and superior return on capital employed
Our investment process
Listed Universe
Quantitative Screening
(1) 5 yr average ROIC > 10% (2) Current year Sales, EBITDA, PAT > 5 yr.
average Sales, EBITDA, PAT. (3) Revenue growth > Av. Sector growth
Fundamental
Framework
ESG
Framework
Forensic
Analysis
Framework
Attractive investment Value =
discounted investment value +
compounding investment value
Filter
Robust businesses
Analyse quality using
Forensics
Arrive at
Acceptable price
Be ESG Informed
41
Risk Management at each level of investment process
• Quality
• Corp. Governance
• Price
• Liquidity
• Reg. Guidelines
• Sell Discipline
• Portfolio Risk
• Residual Macro Bets
• Best Price Monitoring
• Liquidity Monitoring
Idea Generation/
Research
Portfolio Construction/
Monitoring
Trading
Investment
Process
Risk
Management
Risk management is core to our strategy at each level of investment process
42
What we won’t do in the fund
Benchmark
hugging
Macro calls Cash calls
1 2 3
The fund will not replicate its
benchmark in terms of sectoral
allocation and market cap
allocation.
The fund will not follow top-
down approach on sectors and
themes. Focus will be on pure
bottom-up stock ideas.
Timing the market is difficult
and hence, the fund will always
stay fully invested.
43
Scheme Type An open-ended equity scheme investing in maximum 30 stocks across market capitalization
Investment objective
The investment objective of the fund is to generate long term capital appreciation by investing in
equity and equity related instruments of upto 30 companies across market capitalisation.
However, there is no assurance that the investment objective of the Scheme will be realized and the
Scheme does not assure or guarantee any returns.
Asset Allocation
Fund Managers Mr. Trideep Bhattacharya and Mr. Abhishek Gupta
Exit Load 1% upto 365 days. NIL after completion of 365 days
Benchmark Nifty 500 TRI
Instruments Indicative Asset Allocation
Equity and Equity related instruments 65% - 100%
Debt and money market instruments 0% - 35%
Units of REITs & InvITs 0% - 10%
Fund features
44
Trideep Bhattacharya
CIO - Equities
Abhishek Gupta
Fund Manager
Sahil Shah
Fund Manager
Ashwani Agarwalla
Fund Manager
Years of experience
22 Years
Coverage
Macro, Pharmaceuticals
Years of experience
17 Years
Coverage
Technology, Capital
Goods & Industrials,
Construction, Cement,
Metals.
Years of experience
14 Years
Coverage
Automobiles, Consumer
Discretionary, Chemicals,
Miscellaneous sectors
Years of experience
17 Years
Coverage
BFSI, Consumer Staples,
Real Estate
Our Investment Team
45
Mehul Dalmia
Research Analyst
Years of experience
5 Years
Coverage
Pharmaceuticals, ESG and
Forensic Analysis
Disclaimers
This document is for information purposes and private circulation only
and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any mutual fund
units/ securities or to have business relations with Sponsor/ AMC/
Trustee Company and its associates or Edelweiss Mutual Fund.
These views alone are not sufficient and should not be used for the
development or implementation of an investment strategy. All
opinions, figures and estimates included in this document (unless as
specified in the document) are as of this date and are subject to
change without notice. It should not be construed as investment
advice to any party. Neither Sponsor/ AMC/ Trustee Company and its
associates nor Edelweiss Mutual Fund or any person connected with
it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this information. Utmost
care has been exercised while preparing the document, and Sponsor/
AMC/ Trustee Company and its associates or Edelweiss Mutual Fund
does not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information
and disclaims all liabilities, losses and damages arising out of the use
of this information. The recipient of this material should rely on their
investigations and take their own professional advice. Investment
decisions of the AMC may not always be profitable.
Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. 46
The above is the investment ideology which will be followed by the fund manager. However, this can change based on market dynamics, economic scenarios etc.
For detailed investment strategy, risk factors of the schemes please refer to SID available on website. The representational logos used does not imply any
affiliation or endorsement by the brands. These are for illustration purpose only.
www.edelweissmf.com

Edelweiss Focused Equity Fund - Presentation.pdf

  • 2.
  • 3.
    Market Insights 3 Interest rate,geo-politics, and inflation adding to volatility in H1FY23 Strong bottom-up earnings can trigger over the next 2-3 years: Rebound in Credit Growth Private Sector Investment demand House-hold Capex demand Beneficiaries of Govt. growth schemes and China plus one demand After years of downside, earnings are finally looking up in 2HFY23 Incipient signs of pick-up in capex trends look encouraging National Elections in a couple of years makes government pro-spending after years of reforms PLI/Growth schemes to add 1-2% of structural growth over medium-term Valuations have been corrected meaningfully The Earnings & Valuation Picture The Macro Picture
  • 4.
    Earnings growth ona strong footing Nifty 50 EPS Growth – FY 23: expected to grow at a healthy double digit Source: Bloomberg estimates 6% 4% 10% 3% 2% 11% -1% 12% -5% 19% 40% 18% FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E Nifty 50 EPS Growth 246 236 285 310 333 372 402 404 386 418 414 480 457 544 733 864 1002 Nifty 50 EPS 4
  • 5.
    Valuations are morereasonable now Source: Edelweiss Research Market correction so far has been entirely driven by valuation de-rating. Hence, as a result, 1Y forward valuations are now at 18x – 1Y forward – in line with the last 5Y average. 5
  • 6.
    Corporate profit toGDP ratio at a decade high 6 The corporate profit to GDP ratio rebounded to a decade high of 4.3% for the Nifty-500 Universe. GDP grew 19.5% YoY in FY22, while corporate profit rose at a faster rate of 48% YoY (for the Nifty-500 Universe) Source: Motilal Research 2.7 3.3 3.7 3.8 4.6 5.1 4 4.6 4.6 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.3 2.9 3.2 2.8 2.8 2.2 3.4 4.3 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Corporate profit to GDP Average 3.7
  • 7.
    Despite 10% declinesevery year, 3 out of 4 years have ended with positive returns 7 Only 9 years out of last 42 years market ended with negative returns Data Source: ACE MF Markets: More positive than negative years
  • 8.
    8 Investing during badtimes has been rewarding Data Source: ACE MF, analysis based on rolling returns of Nifty 50 index starting from 1st Jan 2000 to 28th June 2022, Past Performance may or may not sustain in future 12.01% 13.22% 16.40% 22.36% 22.68% 20.37% Between 20% and more Between 10 to 20% Between 0 to 10% Between -10 to 0% Between -20 to -10% less than -20% …the Next 5 year average CAGR were Investing, when 1 year returns were
  • 9.
    Equity markets andinterest rate cycles Source: Bloomberg and internal analysis, Past performance may or may not sustain in future Equity markets have performed well during interest rate hike cycles 9 Time frame Duration (no of days) Interest Rate Phase Policy Rate Change in Policy Rate(bps) Nifty 50 Absolute returns during the period 18-09-2004 11-10-2008 1484 Hike Repo 6% to 9% 300 89.2% 11-10-2008 13-02-2010 490 Easing Repo 9% to 4.75% -425 47.2% 13-02-2010 10-03-2012 756 Hike Repo 4.75% to 8.50% 375 10.5% 10-03-2012 20-09-2013 559 Easing Repo 8.50% to 7.25% -125 12.7% 20-09-2013 15-01-2015 482 Hike Repo 7.25% to 8.00% 75 41.3% 15-01-2015 06-06-2018 1238 Easing Repo 8% to 6% -200 25.8% 06-06-2018 07-02-2019 246 Hike Repo 6% to 6.50% 50 3.6% 07-02-2019 08-04-2022 1156 Easing Repo 6.5% to 4.00% -250 60.7% 08-04-2022 28-06-2022 81 Hike Ongoing 90 -10.9%
  • 10.
    Key trends inIndia India to see best decade of growth and transformation Rising income creating demand for better goods and services Rise in internet users enabling growth of innovative business models Shift towards organized sector making strong businesses stronger 10
  • 11.
    “Diversification May PreserveWealth, But Concentration Builds Wealth” - Warren Buffett
  • 12.
    A focus portfolioof 25 to 30 stocks with strong business models Benchmark and sector agnostic approach Multi-cap portfolio Investment strategy 12
  • 13.
    Brands Buy Established &Emerging brands across B2B and B2C segments Market share gainers Buy market-share leaders and emergingmarket-share gainers Innovators Buy Innovators, Adaptors and Enablers of change in business dynamics 3 timeless investing opportunities in 1 portfolio 13 Investing Ideology The above is the investment ideology which will be followed by the fund manager. However, this can change based on market dynamics, economic scenarios etc. For detailed investment strategy, risk factors of the schemes please refer to SID available on website
  • 14.
    BRANDS 14 “Branding is simplya more efficient way to sell things” - Al Ries
  • 15.
    Data Source: BrandFinance report 2021, The representational logos used does not imply any affiliation or endorsement by the brands. These are for illustration purpose only and does not indicate that the fund will buy this stocks. $ 21.28 Bn $ 8.66 Bn $ 8.40 Bn $ 8.14 Bn $ 6.59 Bn $ 6.07 Bn $ 5.84 Bn $ 5.52 Bn $ 5.38 Bn $ 4.81 Bn Top 10 Brands by their brand equity value $164 Bn Valuation of top 100 Brands in India Brands exist across wide range of sectors (Top 100) India - A house of strong brands 15 Sector Value In USD Bn. Engineering & Construction 27.65 Banking 27.32 IT Services 20.48 Oil & Gas 19.72 Automobiles 14.59 Telecoms 12.07 Insurance 8.89 Food 6.89 Retail 6.68 Other 20.58 Total 164.90 Sector Number of Brands Banking 17 Engineering & Construction 8 Retail 7 IT Services 7 Automobiles 7 Oil & Gas 6 Food 6 Tech 5 Mining 5 Miscellaneous 32 Total 100
  • 16.
    Innovation Consistent delivery standards High marketing spends Distinguished Product/Service Pullfrom customers Strong IP Competitive advantage Superior return ratios Bargaining power Higher shareholder value overtime Strong brands create higher shareholder value BRANDS 01 02 03 16
  • 17.
    Strong brands arebiggest wealth creators Top 10 companies with strong brand value have 56% share amongst top 100 biggest wealth creators (by value) in last 5 years Source: Motilal Oswal Research. Stocks are only for illustration purposes. Past performance may not sustain in future 17 Rank Company Wealth Created (in Rs. Bn.) Share% 1 Reliance Industries 9,661 14 2 TCS 7,294 10 3 HDFC Bank 5,182 7 4 Hindustan Unilever 3,427 5 5 Infosys 3,257 5 6 Bajaj Finance 2,592 4 7 ICICI Bank 2,475 4 8 HDFC 2,422 3 9 Kotak Mahindra 2,081 3 10 HCL Tech 1,613 2 Top 10 40,003 56 Top 100 70,815 100
  • 18.
    Turn-around Brand • Newproduct launch • Management change • Rise in market-share Losing Brand • Lack of innovation • Shrinking margins • Loss of market share Established Brand • Dominant position in the sector • High entry barrier • Steady earnings growth Emerging Brand • Slowly gaining market- share from leader • Faster EPS growth • Valuations re-rating Movement of shareholder’s value across various stages Core focus of Edelweiss Focused Equity Fund Stages in brand’s life-cycle 18
  • 19.
    Brands we willinvest in Brands with dominant position Huge scope in the underpenetrated market Have steady earnings growth Eg: Havells, Infosys and HDFC Established Brand Emerging Brand Brands that are gaining prominence Trying to capture brand journey Potential of earning growth along with re-rating Eg: V-Guard, Persistent and Kansai Nerolac Stock names are only for illustration purpose. This is not a recommendation and fund may or may not invest in these stocks. 19
  • 20.
    Brands have strongreturn ratios Note : ROE, Revenue Growth and market cap are on CAGR basis. Market cap growth as of June 2022 Source : Motilal Oswal Research. Stock are only for illustration purpose. Past performance may not sustain in future 20 Company ROE Revenue Growth (last 5 years) Market Cap Growth (last 5 years) HDFC Bank 13% Britannia 9% Pidilite 12% Havells 18% Titan 17% Nifty 100 10%
  • 21.
    Brands outperform significantly Aportfolio of top 15 brands from Nifty 100 has outperformed significantly in last 5 years Top 15 Brands Model Portfolio Vs Nifty 100- Performance Source : Bloomberg, Companies selected are based on internal analysis. This is only for illustration and past performance may not sustain in future. Data as of 28th June, 2022 21 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Jan 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 May 2017 Jul 2017 Aug 2017 Sep 2017 Nov 2017 Dec 2017 Jan 2018 Mar 2018 Apr 2018 May 2018 Jul 2018 Aug 2018 Sep 2018 Nov 2018 Dec 2018 Jan 2019 Mar 2019 Apr 2019 May 2019 Jun 2019 Aug 2019 Sep 2019 Oct 2019 Dec 2019 Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020 Aug 2020 Sep 2020 Oct 2020 Dec 2020 Jan 2021 Feb 2021 Mar 2021 May 2021 Jun 2021 Jul 2021 Sep 2021 Oct 2021 Nov 2021 Jan 2022 Feb 2022 Mar 2022 May 2022 Jun 2022 Brands Nifty 100
  • 22.
    MARKET SHARE GAINERS 22 “Marketleaders continually chart the changing waters” - Peter Barron
  • 23.
    Market-share gain drivesshare-holder value How market-share gainers benefit? Gaining Prominence Sector Leadership Strategic MOAT Strong Financials Better Returns Increasing Market-share Higher growth than sector Better operating leverage Promising return ratios & margins Higher share-holder value 23
  • 24.
    Market-share gainers wewill invest in Market-share leaders having a deep moat Having a meaningful position within the sector Have higher revenue growth rate than peers over last business cycle Have better margins and return ratios than peers over the last business cycle Businesses that are gaining or recapturing prominence Gain in Market share by change agents like - leadership change, product innovation, strategic investment, etc . Change agents can lead to – Higher revenue growth rate, better margins and return ratios than peers Consistent market-share gainers Emerging market-share gainers 24
  • 25.
    Company Revenue Growth (last 5years) Market Cap Growth (last 5 years) Market Share 18% 32% Consistently gaining market share due to un- organized to organized shift 16% 13%* Private Life insurance players have grown at 15% vs the industry average of 12% CAGR in last 5 years 27% 40% Market share enhanced from 27% in FY16 to 50% in FY21, led by a strong distribution network, branding, offering of customized & innovative products and capacity enhancement. Market share gainers are long-term compounders Source: Bloomberg, Internal working. The representational logos used does not imply any affiliation or endorsement by the brands. These are for illustration purpose only and does not indicate that the fund will buy this stocks. Past performance may not sustain in future. Market cap data is as of June 2022. Note : ROE, Revenue Growth & Market cap growth are on CAGR basis.* Market cap growth for HDFC Life is for last 4 years. 25
  • 26.
    Change agents drivemarket-share and stock price Source : Bloomberg, Internal working and only for illustration purpose. Past performance may not sustain in future, Data as of 28th June 2022 26 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20 Feb-21 Apr-21 Jun-21 Aug-21 Oct-21 Dec-21 Feb-22 Apr-22 Jun-22 Titan 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 Apr-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 Jun-19 Oct-19 Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Feb-21 Jun-21 Oct-21 Feb-22 Jun-22 Nestle 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Apr-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Feb-21 Jun-21 Oct-21 Feb-22 Jun-22 ICICI Bank New CEO appointed 2018 ChangeinManagement2019 Changein CEO2015 ShiftfromUnorganizedtoOrganized 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20 Feb-21 Apr-21 Jun-21 Aug-21 Oct-21 Dec-21 Feb-22 Apr-22 Jun-22 Coforge
  • 27.
    Market-share gainers outperformsignificantly Top 20 market-share gainers across various sectors have generated significant outperformance over broader market Note: 20 market share gainers are used to calculate the above returns. Past performance may not sustain. Market-share gainers are selected based on internal analysis Source : Bloomberg, Internal working and only for illustration purpose. Past performance may not sustain in future, Data as of 28th June, 2022 27 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Jan 2017 Mar 2017 May 2017 Jun 2017 Aug 2017 Oct 2017 Nov 2017 Jan 2018 Mar 2018 Apr 2018 Jun 2018 Aug 2018 Sep 2018 Nov 2018 Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Apr 2019 May 2019 Jul 2019 Sep 2019 Oct 2019 Dec 2019 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 May 2020 Jul 2020 Aug 2020 Oct 2020 Dec 2020 Jan 2021 Mar 2021 Apr 2021 Jun 2021 Aug 2021 Sep 2021 Nov 2021 Jan 2022 Feb 2022 Apr 2022 Jun 2022 Top 20 market share gainers Model Portfolio vs Nifty 100 performance Market Share Gainers Nifty 100
  • 28.
    Innovators 28 “Innovation distinguishes betweena leader and a follower” - Steve Jobs
  • 29.
    Innovators are newwealth creators No business is immune to disruption by new age business models today Innovators disrupt old business models and create new eco-system Innovators, adaptors and enablers of innovation can be big wealth creators 29
  • 30.
    Fertile eco-system forinnovators UPI PAYMENTS SHARE Digital payment adoption on rise SMART PHONE USERS Large and still rising smartphone user base DATA COST /GB One of the cheapest data in the world INTERNET USERS Digital Shopping, food delivery, e-pharmacy and e-learning adaption on rise USAGE PER USER/MONTH Smart phone users Population aged <34y Large addressable population 700mn 80% Rs 10 12GB 550mn 850mn Future market potential for innovators Source : Research Report and internal analysis 30 Sector Revenue 2020 USD Bn Revenue 2030 USD Bn Ed – Tech 1.0 19.7 Renewable Power 10.0 30.0 Ecommerce Logistics 2.0 15.4 Online Food Delivery 1.0 10.0 Shared Mobility 0.7 1.8 Online Gaming 0.9 9.2
  • 31.
    Innovative business model New business model failsor turns out to be a FAD New business model turns successful End of Innovator Innovator Enablers Adaptors Disrupted Business Buy these businesses Ignore these businesses Company which innovated new business model Companies which are enabling innovation Companies which are adapting to innovation Companies which failed to adapt What kind of businesses we will buy 31
  • 32.
    1250 1200 1150 1100 1050 1000 950 900 800 Operators 1. Airtel 2. VodafoneIndia 3. Idea Cellular 4. Rcom 5. Tata Tele 6. Aircel 7. Unitech 8. MTS 9. Videocon 10. Loop 11. HFCL 12. Stel 13. MTNL 14. BSNL 15. Etisalat Airtel acquires Videocon spectrum in six circles in Mar’16 Airtel acquires Telenor operations in seven circles in Feb’17 Rcom announces merger with Sisterma (MTS) in Nov’15 Rcom Filed for bankruptcy and closed telecom business in Feb’19 Airtel acquired consumer business of TATA Tele in Oct’17 Vodafone India merged with Idea Cellular to form VIL in Aug’18 Existing Operators 1. Airtel 2. Vodafone Idea 3. Jio 4. MTNL 5. BSNL Pre Jio Launch Post Jio Launch (Subscribers in Mn) Case study – Innovator and disruptor Reduced cost of data in India Led to rise of smartphone users Increased internet userbase Enabled rise of many digital businesses in India JIO – The Disruptor Jio Subscribers (Mn) 426.2 387.5 306.7 2020-21 2019-20 2018-19 Revenue EBITDA Rs 90,287 Crs Rs 34,035 Crs Only for illustration and not a recommendation 32
  • 33.
    Case study –Enabler and adaptor of disruption Indian IT Industry - Infosys Ltd Infosys : % of Revenue from Digital 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 24% 28% 36% 45% % of Revenue from Digital FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 Indian Telecom Industry - Bharti Airtel Ltd Bharati adapted the strong disruption form Jio It reduced data cost and maintained strong Balance Sheet and kept war-chest ready to spend Focused on 4G adaption aggressively Share of Telecom Industry Fall in data cost driven by JIO disruption and rising internet penetration led to surge in digital business Infosys enabled large scale digital transformation in India It benefited as an enabler to disruption from Jio BSNL 10% Vodafone 23% Airtel 30% Jio 37% 33 Only for illustration and not a recommendation
  • 34.
    Disruptor-Enabler-Adapter - All3 created wealth Stock price of Reliance, Infosys and Bharati Airtel in last 5 years Source : Bloomberg. Stock price performance rebased to 10. This is only for illustration purpose. Past performance may not sustain in future 34 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Jan 2017 Mar 2017 May 2017 Jun 2017 Aug 2017 Oct 2017 Nov 2017 Jan 2018 Mar 2018 Apr 2018 Jun 2018 Aug 2018 Sep 2018 Nov 2018 Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Apr 2019 May 2019 Jul 2019 Sep 2019 Oct 2019 Dec 2019 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 May 2020 Jul 2020 Aug 2020 Oct 2020 Dec 2020 Jan 2021 Mar 2021 Apr 2021 Jun 2021 Aug 2021 Sep 2021 Nov 2021 Jan 2022 Feb 2022 Apr 2022 Jun 2022 Stock Price Movement (Normalised) Infosys Ltd Reliance Bharti Airtel
  • 35.
    Sectors that maysee innovation and disruption 35 Sector Innovator Enabler Adaptor Automobiles Electric Vehicle Manufacturers Battery and accessories manufacturers Existing car manufacturers that adapt new technology and strong partnership. Energy Renewable energy Players Grid providers Existing power manufacturers shifting to renewables. Pharmacy E-pharmacy players Pharma manufacturers and diagnostic chains Brick & Mortar chemist adopting to e- pharmacy business model Shared Mobility Ride sharing players Vehicle manufacturers Existing car fleet providers adopting to new age transportation
  • 36.
    Why Now? Brands Innovators Market Share Gainers Unorganizedto Organized: In the post- covid era, the market share of companies in the unorganized sector is likely to shrink further Rising Income: As Income rises, Indian consumers are now becoming brand conscious and are willing to pay premium for better alternatives To drive growth: India’s thriving start-up ecosystem has helped to drive innovation with new offerings and pioneering new business models Disruption is Inevitable: Disruptive growth is an opportunity for investors to capture significant value creation over time Under penetration in many sectors will help market leaders to continue to create new markets Rise of Middle class: Nearly 55% of the Indian population is expected to be in the middle class by 2025 Strong becoming stronger: Weak businesses have suffered due to pandemic-related demand disruption resulting in market share gain by stronger businesses. 36
  • 37.
    Being a BenchmarkAgnostic portfolio, the strategy may underperform the benchmark in the short term Focused funds may suffer from concentration induced volatility The fund may be more volatile than broad based indices or diversified funds Strategy may underperform during prolonged economic slow down What are the risks in this fund 1. 2. 3. 4. 37 For detailed risk factors, pls refer SID of the scheme
  • 38.
    Summary Portfolio Strategy InvestingIdeology Why Now? A focus portfolio with 25 to 30 stocks with strong business models Benchmark, Sector and Market-cap agnostic approach Brands – Buy established and emerging brands across B2B and B2C segment Market-share Gainers – Buy market-share leaders and emerging market-share gainers Innovators – Buy innovators, adaptors and enablers of new business models India is set to see one of the best decades of business growth and transformation Rising income is changing consumer preference towards better brands Strong businesses are becoming stronger due to shift towards organized sector Rise in internet users is enabling innovation and disruption across many sectors 3 timeless investing opportunities in 1 portfolio 38
  • 39.
  • 40.
    Our philosophy whilemanaging your money 40 Our FAIR investment framework helps in identifying Robust and clean businesses available at acceptable price and also keeps us informed on their ESG standings 40 Use forensic framework to check accounting quality, board governance standards and ownership background Focus on reasonably priced businesses with medium term earnings power rather than short term and be value/ growth style agnostic Be informed on ESG factors for businesses that we like to invest and its impact on the environment and humans at large Pick well managed businesses having scalable opportunities and superior return on capital employed
  • 41.
    Our investment process ListedUniverse Quantitative Screening (1) 5 yr average ROIC > 10% (2) Current year Sales, EBITDA, PAT > 5 yr. average Sales, EBITDA, PAT. (3) Revenue growth > Av. Sector growth Fundamental Framework ESG Framework Forensic Analysis Framework Attractive investment Value = discounted investment value + compounding investment value Filter Robust businesses Analyse quality using Forensics Arrive at Acceptable price Be ESG Informed 41
  • 42.
    Risk Management ateach level of investment process • Quality • Corp. Governance • Price • Liquidity • Reg. Guidelines • Sell Discipline • Portfolio Risk • Residual Macro Bets • Best Price Monitoring • Liquidity Monitoring Idea Generation/ Research Portfolio Construction/ Monitoring Trading Investment Process Risk Management Risk management is core to our strategy at each level of investment process 42
  • 43.
    What we won’tdo in the fund Benchmark hugging Macro calls Cash calls 1 2 3 The fund will not replicate its benchmark in terms of sectoral allocation and market cap allocation. The fund will not follow top- down approach on sectors and themes. Focus will be on pure bottom-up stock ideas. Timing the market is difficult and hence, the fund will always stay fully invested. 43
  • 44.
    Scheme Type Anopen-ended equity scheme investing in maximum 30 stocks across market capitalization Investment objective The investment objective of the fund is to generate long term capital appreciation by investing in equity and equity related instruments of upto 30 companies across market capitalisation. However, there is no assurance that the investment objective of the Scheme will be realized and the Scheme does not assure or guarantee any returns. Asset Allocation Fund Managers Mr. Trideep Bhattacharya and Mr. Abhishek Gupta Exit Load 1% upto 365 days. NIL after completion of 365 days Benchmark Nifty 500 TRI Instruments Indicative Asset Allocation Equity and Equity related instruments 65% - 100% Debt and money market instruments 0% - 35% Units of REITs & InvITs 0% - 10% Fund features 44
  • 45.
    Trideep Bhattacharya CIO -Equities Abhishek Gupta Fund Manager Sahil Shah Fund Manager Ashwani Agarwalla Fund Manager Years of experience 22 Years Coverage Macro, Pharmaceuticals Years of experience 17 Years Coverage Technology, Capital Goods & Industrials, Construction, Cement, Metals. Years of experience 14 Years Coverage Automobiles, Consumer Discretionary, Chemicals, Miscellaneous sectors Years of experience 17 Years Coverage BFSI, Consumer Staples, Real Estate Our Investment Team 45 Mehul Dalmia Research Analyst Years of experience 5 Years Coverage Pharmaceuticals, ESG and Forensic Analysis
  • 46.
    Disclaimers This document isfor information purposes and private circulation only and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any mutual fund units/ securities or to have business relations with Sponsor/ AMC/ Trustee Company and its associates or Edelweiss Mutual Fund. These views alone are not sufficient and should not be used for the development or implementation of an investment strategy. All opinions, figures and estimates included in this document (unless as specified in the document) are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. It should not be construed as investment advice to any party. Neither Sponsor/ AMC/ Trustee Company and its associates nor Edelweiss Mutual Fund or any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this information. Utmost care has been exercised while preparing the document, and Sponsor/ AMC/ Trustee Company and its associates or Edelweiss Mutual Fund does not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information and disclaims all liabilities, losses and damages arising out of the use of this information. The recipient of this material should rely on their investigations and take their own professional advice. Investment decisions of the AMC may not always be profitable. Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. 46 The above is the investment ideology which will be followed by the fund manager. However, this can change based on market dynamics, economic scenarios etc. For detailed investment strategy, risk factors of the schemes please refer to SID available on website. The representational logos used does not imply any affiliation or endorsement by the brands. These are for illustration purpose only.
  • 47.