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ECOSYSTEM TRADE-OFFSECOSYSTEM TRADE-OFFS
IN MANAGINGIN MANAGING
NEW ENGLAND FISHERIESNEW ENGLAND FISHERIES
Jon BrodziakJon Brodziak
National Marine Fisheries ServiceNational Marine Fisheries Service
Northeast Fisheries Science CenterNortheast Fisheries Science Center
Woods Hole, MA 02543Woods Hole, MA 02543
30 second grid
resolution = 0.9 km
This map =
1.25km/pixel
SRTM30_PLUS:
SRTM30, COASTAL &
RIDGE MULTIBEAM,
ESTIMATED
TOPOGRAPHY
Joseph J. Becker &
David T. Sandwell
Shelf
Region
Median
Depth
(m)
Middle Atlantic
Bight 34
Southern New
England 58
Georges Bank 70
Gulf of Maine 176
Northeast USA continental
Shelf Ecosystem
• Conflicting Legislative MandatesConflicting Legislative Mandates
• Trade-Offs in Sea Scallop FisheriesTrade-Offs in Sea Scallop Fisheries
• Trade-Offs in Groundfish FisheriesTrade-Offs in Groundfish Fisheries
• Trade-Offs in Pelagic FisheriesTrade-Offs in Pelagic Fisheries
• Applying an Ecosystem ApproachApplying an Ecosystem Approach
in New England fisheries –in New England fisheries –
Is there a clear path forward?Is there a clear path forward?
OverviewOverview
Conflicting Mandates
• Magnuson-Stevens Fishery
Conservation and Management Act
• Marine Mammal Protection Act
• Endangered Species Act
• National Environmental Policy Act
• Regulatory Flexibility Act
•National Standard 1
•Achieve Optimum Yield
•Prevent Overfishing
•National Standard 8
•Maintain Fishing Communities
•National Standard 9
•Minimize Bycatch
Potential Conflicts betweenPotential Conflicts between
MSFCMA National StandardsMSFCMA National Standards
“optimum … means the amount of fish
that will provide the greatest overall
benefit to the Nation … taking into
account the protection of marine
ecosystems”
- Magnuson-Stevens Fishery
Conservation
“Conservation and management
measures shall prevent overfishing
while achieving, on a continuing basis,
the optimum yield from each fishery”
When scallopers dream ...
Trade-Offs in Scallop
Fisheries
3.96
6.927
6.275
3.025
Area I
Area II
Nantucket Light
W. Gulf of Maine
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Thousands of Square Kilometers
Groundfish Closed Areas
Total Area: 20,200 km2 W. Gulf
of Maine
Nantucket
Lightship
Area I
Gulf of Maine
USA Canada
Area II
1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001
ScallopDensity(kg/tow,meats)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
Overall Density
Closed Areas
Open Areas
An Unintended Experiment
(A)
Year
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
NominalFishingEffort
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
Days fished
Days absent
Sea Scallop Fishing Effort
(B)
Year
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Fisheryyield(mt)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Landingsperuniteffort(mt/day)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
Landings
Landings per
day absent
Landings per
day fished
Sea Scallop Catch Rates
Sea Scallop Yield GB and SNE
Year
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Landings(mt)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Scallop Yield Per Recruit using Rotational
Areas
FAVG (y-1
)
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
YPRAVG
(g)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
No rotation
3 yr rotation
6 yr rotation
9 yr rotation
Rotation at high fishing
mortalities allows some
scallops to grow to a large
size, no matter how high
the mortality rate.
Where do we go from here?Where do we go from here?
• Rotational area management
• Biological reserves for spawning stock
• Explicit tradeoffs
• Scallop fishery access versus EFH
• Scallop fishery yield versus bycatch
• Stewardship and property rights
Essential Fish Habitat:
Protection of Benthic Biodiversity
Benthic megafaunal production within Georges Bank Closed
Areas increased by 3- to 10-fold versus comparable disturbed sites
(Hermsen et al. 2003. MEPS 260:97-108)
Year
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
AverageNumberofSpeciesPerHaul
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
80th Percentile
20th Percentile
Georges Bank Total Species Diversity
Updated from Brodziak and Link (2002. Bulletin of Marine Science. 70:589-611)
Do Georges Bank MPAs affect biodiversity?
Feedback
Habitat
Effects
Environmental Variation
(trend, variance)
Fishery Effects
Resource Species
(intermediate
consumer)
Apex
Predator
Intermediate Pelagic
Trophic Level
Lower Pelagic
Trophic Levels
Confounding Factors and the Burden of Proof
Density Dependence
Benthostrophic cascade
yield
yield
trophic cascade
sinkprey
prey
prey
sink
fishing gear
impacts
yield
yield
Regime Shifts
o environmentally driven
o fishery driven ?
Flow
Indirect Effects
?
prey
Minimize Bycatch of Protected Species
Scallop fishing gear modifications helped
reduce loggerhead turtle bycatch in MAB
from 749 turtles in 2003 to 180 in 2004
•History of Chronic Overfishing
• Sequential Depletion & Species Write-Offs
– Now Some Write-Ins
•Management by Lawsuit
- Conservation Law Foundation 1991
- Conservation Law Foundation et al. 1999
•Revised Biomass Targets
- Moving the Goal Posts for Rebuilding
Trade-Offs in Groundfish Fisheries
Georges Bank Haddock Spawning Stock Biomass (kt)
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
FishingMortality
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
Target F
Limit F
Observed F
1998
Haddock Harvest Control Rule, 1931-1998
Chronic overfishing of Georges Bank haddock
Haddock, Closed Area I
year
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
RatioofcatchesInside/Outside(lnkg/tow+1)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
20
24
28
Area closed
Closed Area Effects on Georges Bank haddock
Year
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Fishingmortality
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
FMSY
Georges Bank Haddock
The Intended Experiment: Reduced Fishing Mortality
Haddock Spawning Biomass (kg) Per Recruit:
What Is the Effect of Allowing Fish to Spawn
More Than Once Before You Catch Them?
Year
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Recruitment
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
750
760
770
780
790
Average
1931-1960 Average
1980-1993
Georges Bank Haddock
Can we please return to the good old days ?
Spawning Stock Biomass ('000 t)
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200
Age1Recruits(millions)
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
1931-1963 YCs
1964-2000 YCs
'62 YC
'75 YC
'00 YC
(486)
'63 YC
Odds of above-average recruitment are over 20-fold greater when SSB > 80 kt
Brodziak et al. (2001. CJFAS 58:306-318)
The importance of maternal effects
Year
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Spawningbiomass(kt)
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
BMSY
Georges Bank Haddock
Moving the goalposts for rebuilding groundfish
GARM II: Groundfish Fishing Mortality
Fishing mortality
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
GM cod
GB cod
GB haddock
GB yellowtail
SNE yellowtail
FMSY
F2004
F 1994
Tracking the Big Five groundfish stocks
GARM II: Groundfish Biomass
Spawning biomass (thousand mt)
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
GM cod
GB cod
GB haddock
GB yellowtail
SNE yellowtail Rebuilding target
SSB 2004
1994
Some positive signs, but there’s a long way to go
Groundfish status at the start of Amendment 13
Atlantic cod fishery (millions of pounds)
Georges Bank and Gulf of Maine stocks
0 10 20 30 40
Fishing year
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
Target TAC
Landings
Amendment 13 went into effect on May 1,
2004
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
SpawningStockBiomass
FishingMortalityRate(F)
current
Bmsy
F = Fmsy = 0.230
F = Frebuild = 0.217
An Adaptive Management Approach for Gulf of Maine Cod
VPA Stock Size Estimates for 2008
Upper Quartile
Median
Lower Quartile
B2008 = 51
Amendment 13: incorporating flexibility
B2008 > Bwaypoint B2008 = B waypoint B2008 < Bwaypoint
F2002-08
> Fmsy
Reduce F to Fmsy,
re-consider Bmsy, Fmsy
Reconsideration should
come before reduction in F.
Identify causes—strong
recruitment offset
overfishing?
Reduce F to Frebuild
Extra measures will be
needed since present
measures ineffective.
Identify causes—strong
recruitment offset
overfishing?
Reduce F to F rebuild;
Consider basis for poor
biomass performance
Extra measures will be
needed since present
measures ineffective.
F2002-08
= Fmsy
Maintain F at Fmsy or
below
Depends on expected
trajectory from B’08 to
B’14 at Fmsy.
Reduce F to Frebuild
Proceed with plan.
Consider revising F
rebuild if value for
2009-2014 greater than
previous value
Reduce F to Frebuild;
and/or re-estimate Bmsy,
Fmsy as appropriate
Consider regime changes,
multispecies effects,
changes in vital rates
F2002-08
< Fmsy
Maintain F </= Fmsy, re-
consider Bmsy
Reconsider time frame for
rebuild. No penalty for
early victory. Re-evaluate
Fmsy (too low?)
If F2008 will rebuild to
Bmsy, maintain F
Consider basis, re-
estimate Bmsy, Fmsy as
appropriate
Consider regime changes,
multispecies effects, and
changes in vital rates
Waypoint in 2008: Adaptive Management Contingency Table
What changes would
improve quality ?
Is more information
needed ?
Carry out change or
test. Collect new
data if needed.
Observe the
effects of the
change or test.
Study the results.
What did we learn ?
What can we
predict ?
The Shewhart cycle for
total quality management
Adaptive management is an objective
approach for improving ecosystem quality
““No one knew exactly how many newcomers had arriveNo one knew exactly how many newcomers had arrive
during the last four months of 1977, but according toduring the last four months of 1977, but according to
one report, new boats entered the fishery at theone report, new boats entered the fishery at the
astounding rate of about one every four days.”astounding rate of about one every four days.”
Industry in TroubleIndustry in Trouble
Margaret DewarMargaret Dewar
Overcapacity to Harvest Fishery
Resources
After the 200-Mile Limit
Number of Otter Trawl Vessels Landing in New England, 1964-2000
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
Year
t) #) Ò)
Increasing Harvest Capacity
Indices
Average Income of New England Otter Trawl Fishermen, 1964-2000
(adjusted to year 2000US$)
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
Year
Average per crew
Average per vessel
Working harder for less
Beware, Latent Effort is Lurking
Multispecies Groundfish Days at Sea
Year
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Groundfishdaysatsea(thousands)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Allocated
Used
•Rebuilding Groundfish Stocks
versus Maintaining Communities
• Share-Based Harvesting Rights (IFQs)
versus Freedom to Fish
Trade-Offs in Groundfish Fisheries
Trade-Offs in Pelagic Fisheries
(A) Atlantic herring
Year
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Yield(thousandmt)
0
100
200
300
400
500
Landings
Forgone yield, 1977-present
Herring Fishery Yield
Year
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Spawningbiomass(thousandmt)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Meanlength(cm)duringAugust
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
Spawning biomass
Age-5 mean length
Herring Density-Dependent Growth
Herring Density-Dependent Growth
Year
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Spawningbiomassindex(kg/tow)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Meanlength(cm)duringAugust
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
Age-3+ biomass
Age-4 Mean length
Year
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Biomass(thousandmt)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Herring consumed by fish
Fishery landings
Herring Fish Predators Versus Fishery Yield
Trends in Pelagic and Demersal Species Biomasses
Gulf of Maine
Year
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Demersalbiomassperarea(mt/km2
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Pelagicbiomassperarea(mt/km2)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Demeral
Pelagic
Georges Bank
Year
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Demersalbiomassperarea(mt/km2)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Pelagicbiomassperarea(mt/km2)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Demeral
Pelagic
Southern New England
Year
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Demersalbiomassperarea(mt/km2)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Pelagicbiomassperarea(mt/km2)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Demeral
Pelagic
Mid-Atlantic Bight
Year
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Demersalbiomassperarea(mt/km2)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Pelagicbiomassperarea(mt/km2)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Demeral
Pelagic
Trade-Offs in Pelagic Fisheries
•Limited Incentives for Fishing
versus Forgone Yield
• Density-Dependent Growth
versus Keeping Fishing Mortality
Low
•Fishery Yield
versus Predator Consumption
• Demersal
versus Pelagic Dominance
of Energy Flux?
• Conserve Fisheries Resources
• Use Marine Protected Areas
• Reduce Bycatch and Discards
• Improve Management Institutions
• Reduce Excess Fishing Capacity
Applying an Ecosystem Approach to
Manage New England Fisheries
Metrics of Ecological Sustainability in
Ecosystem Management – Measuring Success
• Diverse Biota
• Mature Fish Thriving
and Spawning
• Reliable Seafood
Products
• Low-Impact Fishing
Practices
• Resilience to Climate 
Ecological Change
• Stable Yields
• Profitable Industries
• Ample Recreational
Fishing and Tourism
Opportunities
• Robust Populations of
Protected Species
The Participatory Process
and Political Intervention
Incorporating Other Ocean Uses and Services
Impediments
to Achieving
an
Ecosystem
Approach
Insufficient Knowledge
and Attacking the Credibility of Science
Inadequate Monitoring,
Higher Data Costs, and
Aligning Public Expectations with Reality
“during the 1980s … the … administration
substantially cut the budget of the NMFS. Congress
not only failed to restore the agency’s budget but
went on to expand greatly its regulatory mandate.”
(Hennessey and Healey (2000)
Fishing Down the Food Web – Can We Restore Marine Ecosystems?
Adapted from Pauly et al. (1998. Fishing Down Marine Food Webs)Source: Pauly et al. (1998)
The Participatory Process
and Political Intervention
“Under intense political pressure, NOAA eventually
acquiesced to a plan (in 1986) that its fishery experts
believed was fundamentally flawed”
(Hennessey and Healey(2000)
Overcapacity !!!
“…the groundfish fishery includes about 1663
permits [circa 2002], but less than 30% of this level
may be more than sufficient to land the maximum
sustainable yield (Kirkley et al. (2002).”
Stressed ecosystem
overcapacitymany
competing
uses
Alternative
ecosystem
states
-some uses in moderation
-some uses not at all
-regulation of all uses
high information
requirements
more variability
less resilience
more
stable yields
fewer but more
productive vessels
Transition costs:
-fleet reductions
-restructuring of fishing
communities
-allocation
Robust and
productive
ecosystem
Transition benefits:
-more stable fish
communities
-more stable fishing
communities
-share-based
harvest rights
habitat
damage
lower fishing
mortality
Adapted from
Brodziak et al. (2004)
Where do
we go
from here?
Building Responsible Fisheries
• Goals and Constraints
• Conservation of Fisheries Resources
• Allocation of Fishing Rights
• Participatory Decision-Making
• Ecosystem Protection
• Management Support
• The Ethic of Restraint
Adapted from Sissenwine and Mace (2001. Governance for
responsible fisheries: an ecosystem approach. FAO)
Brodziak, J.K.T., P. M. Mace, W.J. Overholtz, and
P.J. Rago. 2004. Ecosystem Trade-Offs in Managing
New England Fisheries. Bulletin of Marine Science.
74:529-548.
For more information:For more information:
Ecological Decision Making in the Face of
Diverse Human Value Systems
• Accountability: Explicit About Decision Criteria
• Legitimacy: Explicit About Policy Strategies
• Flexibility: Explicit About Uncertainties

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International trade in fish and fish production
 

Ecosystem_tradeoffs_in_managing_New_England_fisheries

  • 1. ECOSYSTEM TRADE-OFFSECOSYSTEM TRADE-OFFS IN MANAGINGIN MANAGING NEW ENGLAND FISHERIESNEW ENGLAND FISHERIES Jon BrodziakJon Brodziak National Marine Fisheries ServiceNational Marine Fisheries Service Northeast Fisheries Science CenterNortheast Fisheries Science Center Woods Hole, MA 02543Woods Hole, MA 02543
  • 2. 30 second grid resolution = 0.9 km This map = 1.25km/pixel SRTM30_PLUS: SRTM30, COASTAL & RIDGE MULTIBEAM, ESTIMATED TOPOGRAPHY Joseph J. Becker & David T. Sandwell Shelf Region Median Depth (m) Middle Atlantic Bight 34 Southern New England 58 Georges Bank 70 Gulf of Maine 176 Northeast USA continental Shelf Ecosystem
  • 3. • Conflicting Legislative MandatesConflicting Legislative Mandates • Trade-Offs in Sea Scallop FisheriesTrade-Offs in Sea Scallop Fisheries • Trade-Offs in Groundfish FisheriesTrade-Offs in Groundfish Fisheries • Trade-Offs in Pelagic FisheriesTrade-Offs in Pelagic Fisheries • Applying an Ecosystem ApproachApplying an Ecosystem Approach in New England fisheries –in New England fisheries – Is there a clear path forward?Is there a clear path forward? OverviewOverview
  • 4. Conflicting Mandates • Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act • Marine Mammal Protection Act • Endangered Species Act • National Environmental Policy Act • Regulatory Flexibility Act
  • 5. •National Standard 1 •Achieve Optimum Yield •Prevent Overfishing •National Standard 8 •Maintain Fishing Communities •National Standard 9 •Minimize Bycatch Potential Conflicts betweenPotential Conflicts between MSFCMA National StandardsMSFCMA National Standards
  • 6. “optimum … means the amount of fish that will provide the greatest overall benefit to the Nation … taking into account the protection of marine ecosystems” - Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation “Conservation and management measures shall prevent overfishing while achieving, on a continuing basis, the optimum yield from each fishery”
  • 7. When scallopers dream ... Trade-Offs in Scallop Fisheries
  • 8. 3.96 6.927 6.275 3.025 Area I Area II Nantucket Light W. Gulf of Maine 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Thousands of Square Kilometers Groundfish Closed Areas Total Area: 20,200 km2 W. Gulf of Maine Nantucket Lightship Area I Gulf of Maine USA Canada Area II
  • 9. 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 ScallopDensity(kg/tow,meats) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Overall Density Closed Areas Open Areas An Unintended Experiment
  • 10. (A) Year 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 NominalFishingEffort 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 Days fished Days absent Sea Scallop Fishing Effort
  • 11. (B) Year 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Fisheryyield(mt) 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 Landingsperuniteffort(mt/day) 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 Landings Landings per day absent Landings per day fished Sea Scallop Catch Rates
  • 12. Sea Scallop Yield GB and SNE Year 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Landings(mt) 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000
  • 13.
  • 14. Scallop Yield Per Recruit using Rotational Areas FAVG (y-1 ) 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 YPRAVG (g) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 No rotation 3 yr rotation 6 yr rotation 9 yr rotation Rotation at high fishing mortalities allows some scallops to grow to a large size, no matter how high the mortality rate.
  • 15. Where do we go from here?Where do we go from here? • Rotational area management • Biological reserves for spawning stock • Explicit tradeoffs • Scallop fishery access versus EFH • Scallop fishery yield versus bycatch • Stewardship and property rights
  • 16. Essential Fish Habitat: Protection of Benthic Biodiversity Benthic megafaunal production within Georges Bank Closed Areas increased by 3- to 10-fold versus comparable disturbed sites (Hermsen et al. 2003. MEPS 260:97-108)
  • 17. Year 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 AverageNumberofSpeciesPerHaul 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 80th Percentile 20th Percentile Georges Bank Total Species Diversity Updated from Brodziak and Link (2002. Bulletin of Marine Science. 70:589-611) Do Georges Bank MPAs affect biodiversity?
  • 18. Feedback Habitat Effects Environmental Variation (trend, variance) Fishery Effects Resource Species (intermediate consumer) Apex Predator Intermediate Pelagic Trophic Level Lower Pelagic Trophic Levels Confounding Factors and the Burden of Proof Density Dependence Benthostrophic cascade yield yield trophic cascade sinkprey prey prey sink fishing gear impacts yield yield Regime Shifts o environmentally driven o fishery driven ? Flow Indirect Effects ? prey
  • 19. Minimize Bycatch of Protected Species Scallop fishing gear modifications helped reduce loggerhead turtle bycatch in MAB from 749 turtles in 2003 to 180 in 2004
  • 20. •History of Chronic Overfishing • Sequential Depletion & Species Write-Offs – Now Some Write-Ins •Management by Lawsuit - Conservation Law Foundation 1991 - Conservation Law Foundation et al. 1999 •Revised Biomass Targets - Moving the Goal Posts for Rebuilding Trade-Offs in Groundfish Fisheries
  • 21. Georges Bank Haddock Spawning Stock Biomass (kt) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 FishingMortality 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 Target F Limit F Observed F 1998 Haddock Harvest Control Rule, 1931-1998 Chronic overfishing of Georges Bank haddock
  • 22. Haddock, Closed Area I year 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 RatioofcatchesInside/Outside(lnkg/tow+1) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 20 24 28 Area closed Closed Area Effects on Georges Bank haddock
  • 23. Year 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Fishingmortality 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 FMSY Georges Bank Haddock The Intended Experiment: Reduced Fishing Mortality
  • 24. Haddock Spawning Biomass (kg) Per Recruit: What Is the Effect of Allowing Fish to Spawn More Than Once Before You Catch Them?
  • 25. Year 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Recruitment 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 750 760 770 780 790 Average 1931-1960 Average 1980-1993 Georges Bank Haddock Can we please return to the good old days ?
  • 26. Spawning Stock Biomass ('000 t) 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 Age1Recruits(millions) 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 1931-1963 YCs 1964-2000 YCs '62 YC '75 YC '00 YC (486) '63 YC Odds of above-average recruitment are over 20-fold greater when SSB > 80 kt Brodziak et al. (2001. CJFAS 58:306-318) The importance of maternal effects
  • 27. Year 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Spawningbiomass(kt) 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 BMSY Georges Bank Haddock Moving the goalposts for rebuilding groundfish
  • 28. GARM II: Groundfish Fishing Mortality Fishing mortality 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 GM cod GB cod GB haddock GB yellowtail SNE yellowtail FMSY F2004 F 1994 Tracking the Big Five groundfish stocks
  • 29. GARM II: Groundfish Biomass Spawning biomass (thousand mt) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 GM cod GB cod GB haddock GB yellowtail SNE yellowtail Rebuilding target SSB 2004 1994 Some positive signs, but there’s a long way to go
  • 30. Groundfish status at the start of Amendment 13
  • 31. Atlantic cod fishery (millions of pounds) Georges Bank and Gulf of Maine stocks 0 10 20 30 40 Fishing year 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 Target TAC Landings Amendment 13 went into effect on May 1, 2004
  • 32. 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 SpawningStockBiomass FishingMortalityRate(F) current Bmsy F = Fmsy = 0.230 F = Frebuild = 0.217 An Adaptive Management Approach for Gulf of Maine Cod VPA Stock Size Estimates for 2008 Upper Quartile Median Lower Quartile B2008 = 51 Amendment 13: incorporating flexibility
  • 33. B2008 > Bwaypoint B2008 = B waypoint B2008 < Bwaypoint F2002-08 > Fmsy Reduce F to Fmsy, re-consider Bmsy, Fmsy Reconsideration should come before reduction in F. Identify causes—strong recruitment offset overfishing? Reduce F to Frebuild Extra measures will be needed since present measures ineffective. Identify causes—strong recruitment offset overfishing? Reduce F to F rebuild; Consider basis for poor biomass performance Extra measures will be needed since present measures ineffective. F2002-08 = Fmsy Maintain F at Fmsy or below Depends on expected trajectory from B’08 to B’14 at Fmsy. Reduce F to Frebuild Proceed with plan. Consider revising F rebuild if value for 2009-2014 greater than previous value Reduce F to Frebuild; and/or re-estimate Bmsy, Fmsy as appropriate Consider regime changes, multispecies effects, changes in vital rates F2002-08 < Fmsy Maintain F </= Fmsy, re- consider Bmsy Reconsider time frame for rebuild. No penalty for early victory. Re-evaluate Fmsy (too low?) If F2008 will rebuild to Bmsy, maintain F Consider basis, re- estimate Bmsy, Fmsy as appropriate Consider regime changes, multispecies effects, and changes in vital rates Waypoint in 2008: Adaptive Management Contingency Table
  • 34. What changes would improve quality ? Is more information needed ? Carry out change or test. Collect new data if needed. Observe the effects of the change or test. Study the results. What did we learn ? What can we predict ? The Shewhart cycle for total quality management Adaptive management is an objective approach for improving ecosystem quality
  • 35. ““No one knew exactly how many newcomers had arriveNo one knew exactly how many newcomers had arrive during the last four months of 1977, but according toduring the last four months of 1977, but according to one report, new boats entered the fishery at theone report, new boats entered the fishery at the astounding rate of about one every four days.”astounding rate of about one every four days.” Industry in TroubleIndustry in Trouble Margaret DewarMargaret Dewar Overcapacity to Harvest Fishery Resources After the 200-Mile Limit
  • 36. Number of Otter Trawl Vessels Landing in New England, 1964-2000 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 Year t) #) Ò) Increasing Harvest Capacity Indices
  • 37. Average Income of New England Otter Trawl Fishermen, 1964-2000 (adjusted to year 2000US$) $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000 $140,000 $160,000 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 Year Average per crew Average per vessel Working harder for less
  • 38. Beware, Latent Effort is Lurking Multispecies Groundfish Days at Sea Year 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Groundfishdaysatsea(thousands) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Allocated Used
  • 39. •Rebuilding Groundfish Stocks versus Maintaining Communities • Share-Based Harvesting Rights (IFQs) versus Freedom to Fish Trade-Offs in Groundfish Fisheries
  • 41. (A) Atlantic herring Year 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Yield(thousandmt) 0 100 200 300 400 500 Landings Forgone yield, 1977-present Herring Fishery Yield
  • 42. Year 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Spawningbiomass(thousandmt) 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Meanlength(cm)duringAugust 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 Spawning biomass Age-5 mean length Herring Density-Dependent Growth
  • 43. Herring Density-Dependent Growth Year 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Spawningbiomassindex(kg/tow) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Meanlength(cm)duringAugust 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 Age-3+ biomass Age-4 Mean length
  • 44. Year 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Biomass(thousandmt) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Herring consumed by fish Fishery landings Herring Fish Predators Versus Fishery Yield
  • 45. Trends in Pelagic and Demersal Species Biomasses Gulf of Maine Year 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Demersalbiomassperarea(mt/km2 ) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Pelagicbiomassperarea(mt/km2) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Demeral Pelagic Georges Bank Year 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Demersalbiomassperarea(mt/km2) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Pelagicbiomassperarea(mt/km2) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Demeral Pelagic Southern New England Year 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Demersalbiomassperarea(mt/km2) 0 5 10 15 20 25 Pelagicbiomassperarea(mt/km2) 0 5 10 15 20 25 Demeral Pelagic Mid-Atlantic Bight Year 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Demersalbiomassperarea(mt/km2) 0 5 10 15 20 25 Pelagicbiomassperarea(mt/km2) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Demeral Pelagic
  • 46. Trade-Offs in Pelagic Fisheries •Limited Incentives for Fishing versus Forgone Yield • Density-Dependent Growth versus Keeping Fishing Mortality Low •Fishery Yield versus Predator Consumption • Demersal versus Pelagic Dominance of Energy Flux?
  • 47. • Conserve Fisheries Resources • Use Marine Protected Areas • Reduce Bycatch and Discards • Improve Management Institutions • Reduce Excess Fishing Capacity Applying an Ecosystem Approach to Manage New England Fisheries
  • 48. Metrics of Ecological Sustainability in Ecosystem Management – Measuring Success • Diverse Biota • Mature Fish Thriving and Spawning • Reliable Seafood Products • Low-Impact Fishing Practices • Resilience to Climate Ecological Change • Stable Yields • Profitable Industries • Ample Recreational Fishing and Tourism Opportunities • Robust Populations of Protected Species
  • 49. The Participatory Process and Political Intervention Incorporating Other Ocean Uses and Services
  • 51. Insufficient Knowledge and Attacking the Credibility of Science
  • 52. Inadequate Monitoring, Higher Data Costs, and Aligning Public Expectations with Reality “during the 1980s … the … administration substantially cut the budget of the NMFS. Congress not only failed to restore the agency’s budget but went on to expand greatly its regulatory mandate.” (Hennessey and Healey (2000)
  • 53. Fishing Down the Food Web – Can We Restore Marine Ecosystems? Adapted from Pauly et al. (1998. Fishing Down Marine Food Webs)Source: Pauly et al. (1998)
  • 54. The Participatory Process and Political Intervention “Under intense political pressure, NOAA eventually acquiesced to a plan (in 1986) that its fishery experts believed was fundamentally flawed” (Hennessey and Healey(2000)
  • 55. Overcapacity !!! “…the groundfish fishery includes about 1663 permits [circa 2002], but less than 30% of this level may be more than sufficient to land the maximum sustainable yield (Kirkley et al. (2002).”
  • 56. Stressed ecosystem overcapacitymany competing uses Alternative ecosystem states -some uses in moderation -some uses not at all -regulation of all uses high information requirements more variability less resilience more stable yields fewer but more productive vessels Transition costs: -fleet reductions -restructuring of fishing communities -allocation Robust and productive ecosystem Transition benefits: -more stable fish communities -more stable fishing communities -share-based harvest rights habitat damage lower fishing mortality Adapted from Brodziak et al. (2004) Where do we go from here?
  • 57. Building Responsible Fisheries • Goals and Constraints • Conservation of Fisheries Resources • Allocation of Fishing Rights • Participatory Decision-Making • Ecosystem Protection • Management Support • The Ethic of Restraint Adapted from Sissenwine and Mace (2001. Governance for responsible fisheries: an ecosystem approach. FAO)
  • 58. Brodziak, J.K.T., P. M. Mace, W.J. Overholtz, and P.J. Rago. 2004. Ecosystem Trade-Offs in Managing New England Fisheries. Bulletin of Marine Science. 74:529-548. For more information:For more information:
  • 59. Ecological Decision Making in the Face of Diverse Human Value Systems • Accountability: Explicit About Decision Criteria • Legitimacy: Explicit About Policy Strategies • Flexibility: Explicit About Uncertainties

Editor's Notes

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