Patricio Barbale S&P Global Mobility

1. Economic outlook for Automotive
Lightweight Materials
Automotive Lightweighting Materials 2022
Patricio Barbale
Senior Research Analyst
Automotive Supply Chain and Technology
Patricio.Barbale@spglobal.com
8-9 June 2022
S&P Global Mobility

2. S&P Global Mobility 2
Agenda
Introduction: why a material Forecast?
Body-in-white global material market overview
European production region analysis
Body-in-white components analysis
Material analysis by Region and Segment

3. S&P Global Mobility 3
We provide invaluable insights derived from
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right consumers, and shape the future of
mobility.

4. 4
Facts & Figures
80
Analysts in 18 offices, + dedicated data
scientists and data architects
300+
Technologies tracked, mapped against 150+
vehicle, engine and transmission subsystems
16M
Number of rows
updated monthly
13
Domains (Autonomy, Chassis, Connected Car,
E-mobility, E/E and Semiconductors, Interior, Lighting, Materials,
OEM Strategy, Powertrain, Software, Thermal, UI/UX)
5000+
Suppliers tracked at
model/nameplate level
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5. Forecasting Methodology
5
Component forecasts are integrated within the wider data infrastructure and workflows
Components
Macro-economy
/
finance
/
intelligence
Sales
Powertrain (Engine)
Import module
Export module
Transmission
Production
S&P Global Mobility

6. Research Methodology
6
A structured methodology relying on multiple inputs to address each step timeframe from historical data to long-term outlook.
Quality
Checks
Analyst
Assessment
Primary Research
Sources
Trade
Publications
Press
Releases
Internal
Datasets
Other
IHS Markit
Publication
Secondary Research
Sources
History
Current Sourcing Window
& Near-term Forecast
(0-3 years)
Mid-term Forecast
(3-6 years)
Long-term Trends
(6-12 years)
Data
Science
Specifications
Research &
Teardowns
Tradeshow/
Conferences
Component Forecasts
Interviews
Consumer
Acceptance/
Perceived
Value
OEM
Mid-term
Plan
Infrastructure
Readiness
Regulatory
Environment/
Cost & Tech
Roadmaps
Surveys
S&P Global Mobility

7. S&P Global Mobility 7
Why do OEMs focus on body-in-white?
• Single-largest and heaviest vehicle subsystem
• Crash safety
• Enviromental sealing
• Design surfances
• Connection to every system
• Largely common structure between trim levels
• Exception: exposed bolt on components
• Hood, fenders, rear closure and roof
• Provides benefits to all segments and customers
• Payload increases
• Decompounding

8. S&P Global Mobility 8
Body-In-White Forecast: Data Structure
Component Name
Component
Position
Component
Weight
• A Pillar
• B Pillar
• C Pillar
• Hood
• Front Bumper Beam
• Rear Bumper Beam
• Front Door
• Rear Door
• Front Fender
• Rear Closure
• Rear Quarter Panel
• Rocker Panel
• Roof
• Shock Tower
• Bed
• Agg rBIW (Underbody)
• Inner
• Exposed
• Structural
• Estimated
Component
Weight (Kg.)
Vehicle Bodystyle
Material Group Material Type
Steel
• Mild (<300Mpa) • AHSS (550-779Mpa) • GigaPascal (1000+ Mpa)
• HSS (300-549Mpa) • UHSS (780-999Mpa) • Stainless
Aluminum
• 5xxx series • 6xxx series • 7xxx series
• 9xxx series • 3xx.x series • 9xx.x series
Composite
• SMC • Glass Fiber • Aluminum Laminated
• CFRP • Natural Fiber • Steel Laminated
Magnesium • Magnesium
Process Group Process Type
Stamped
• Cold Stamped • Tailor Welded • Bake Hardened
• Warm Formed • Hot Stamped • Press Hardened
Cast
• Low-pressure PM Cast • Die Cast • Squeeze Cast
• Vacuum PM Cast • High Pressure Die Cast
Roll Formed • Roll Formed • Tailor Welded • 3D Roll Formed
Extrusion
• Cold Extrusion • Friction Extrusion • Pultrusion
• Hot Extrusion • Micro Extrusion
Molded
• Resin Transfer • Injection • Compression
• Autoclave • Thixotropic molding • Hot Stamped

9. S&P Global Mobility
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Body In White
Global Material
Market Overview

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Global Light Vehicle Production Body In White Material Demand
Finished Components, All Material Groups
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Million
metric
tons
Global automotive body in white, regional tonnages
Greater China Europe North America Japan/Korea South Asia South America Middle East/Africa

11. S&P Global Mobility 11
Global Light Vehicle Production Body In White Material Demand
Finished Components by Material Group indicate the positive efforts of lightweighting
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Millions
Million
metric
tons
Global automotive body in white, material group tonnage compared to production volume
Aluminum Composite Magnesium Steel Volume

12. S&P Global Mobility 12
Global Light Vehicle Production Body In White Material Demand
Steel comparison between 2022 and 2033
Mild
50%
HSS
22%
AHSS
13%
GigaPascal
8% UHSS
7%
Steel specifications, Worldwide, 2022
• Mild Steel is declining over time, despite being massively used for lower segment vehicles and in developing
countries
• UHSS grades show a very slight growth due to the progression of components to even higher strengths
• AHSS may have upside to demand in Underbody component use
• HSS continues to grow faster in secondary markets
Mild
40%
HSS
27%
AHSS
16%
GigaPascal
10% UHSS
7%
Steel specifications, Worldwide, 2033

13. S&P Global Mobility 13
Global Light Vehicle Production Body In White Material Demand
Non-Ferrous Demand
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Million
metric
tons
Global automotive body in white, material type tonnage
Aluminum SMC Glass Fiber Steel Laminated CFRP Magnesium Natural Fiber

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Europe
Production
Region Overview

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EU Regional Market Light Vehicle Production Body In White
Finished Components by Material Group indicate the positive efforts of lightweighting
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
2
4
6
8
10
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Millions
Million
metric
tons
EU automotive body in white, material group tonnage compared to production volume
Steel Aluminum Composite Magnesium Volume

16. S&P Global Mobility 16
EU Regional Market Light Vehicle Production Body In White
Decisive decrease of usage of mild steel for vehicles builts in EU, with strong increase of advanced steels
• All materials available on the market currently are looking to replace mild steel
• HSS, AHSS & UHSS captures fair share of mild steel replaced, but not all
• Non-ferrous materials double their market share by the end of the forecast period
Mild
49%
HSS
19%
AHSS
14%
GigaPascal
8%
Aluminum
7%
UHSS
3%
European Market BIW material penetration, 2022
Mild
30%
HSS
28%
AHSS
16%
GigaPascal
9%
Aluminum
10%
UHSS
4%
Glass Fiber
0%
CFRP
1%
Steel Laminated
2%
European Market BIW material penetration, 2033
Aluminum
not
specified
59%
6xxx
series
29%
5xxx
series
7%
3xx.x
series
5%
7xxx
series
0%
Aluminum not
specified
68%
6xxx
series
24%
5xxx
series
5%
3xx.x
series
1%
7xxx
series
1%
8xxx
series
1%

17. S&P Global Mobility 17
Europe Region: Ferrous BIW Material Demand
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Million
metric
tons
Europe biw, finished components, steel
Mild HSS AHSS GigaPascal UHSS
• Ferrous Market 1.17% CAGR
– Mild -2.02%
– HSS 4.20%
– AHSS 3.34%
– UHSS 3.67%
– GigaPascal 2.94%
• Mild Steel tonnage rapidly wanes as
OEMs embrace higher grades of steel for
Lightweighting & Safety benefits
• Improvements in GigaPascal forming
costs and elongation lead to higher use,
especially in component count reduction
measures

18. S&P Global Mobility 18
Europe Region: Non-Ferrous BIW Material Demand
• 7.98% CAGR: non-ferrous BIW components
– Aluminum 5.92%
• 6xxx series 3.80%
• 5xxx series 3.05%
• 7xxx series 16.86%
– Composites 28.09%
• Glass Fiber 10.60%
• SMC 5.50%
• Steel Laminated 42.02%
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Million
metric
tons
Europe non-ferreous biw tonnage by material type
Aluminum 6xxx series 5xxx series 3xx.x series
Glass Fiber CFRP SMC 7xxx series
Steel Laminated 8xxx series Natural Fiber Magnesium

19. S&P Global Mobility 19
EU Regional Market Light Vehicle Production Body In White
Material adoption by Position: Structural, Inner, Exposed
6.02%
5.40%
7.85%
9.58%
8.88%
10.82%
Structural Inner Exposed
Aluminum Adoption by
Position
2022 2033
17.45%
2.46%
0.01%
18.73%
3.12%
0.52%
Structural Inner Exposed
GigaPascal Adoption by
Position
2022 2033
0.13% 0.15% 0.31%
1.41%
2.82%
5.05%
Structural Inner Exposed
Composite Adoption by
Position
2022 2033

20. S&P Global Mobility
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Body in White
Components
Analysis

21. S&P Global Mobility 21
Global A & B Pillars material demand analysis
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Million
metric
tons
A Pillar by Material Type
Aluminum AHSS CFRP
GigaPascal Glass Fiber HSS
Magnesium Mild SMC
Steel Laminated UHSS
AHSS
UHSS
Al
Mild
GigaPascal
HSS
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Million
metric
tons
B Pillar by Material Type
Aluminum AHSS CFRP
GigaPascal Glass Fiber HSS
Magnesium Mild SMC
Steel Laminated UHSS
Mild
GigaPascal
AHSS
HSS
UHSS
Al

22. S&P Global Mobility 22
Front Bumper Beam & Front Door material demand analysis
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Million
metric
tons
Front Bumper Beam by Material Type
Aluminum AHSS GigaPascal HSS
Magnesium Mild UHSS
AHSS
GigaPascal
Al
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Million
metric
tons
Front Door by Material Type
Aluminum AHSS GigaPascal
HSS Magnesium Mild
UHSS CFRP Glass Fiber
Natural Fiber SMC Steel Laminated
Al
GigaPascal
HSS
Mild

23. S&P Global Mobility 23
Hood & Roof material demand analysis
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Million
metric
tons
Hood by Material Type
Aluminum AHSS CFRP
Glass Fiber HSS Magnesium
Mild Natural Fiber SMC
Steel Laminated
Al
HSS
Mild
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Million
metric
tons
Roof by Material Type
Aluminum AHSS CFRP
Glass Fiber HSS Magnesium
Mild Natural Fiber SMC
Steel Laminated GigaPascal UHSS
Mild
HSS
AHSS

24. S&P Global Mobility 24
Where ‘’lower penetration’’ materials are used most – year 2025
33% Aluminum
0.71% Steel Laminated
50% Aluminum
0.13% SMC
0.79% Steel Laminated
23% Giga Pascal
20% Giga Pascal
31% Giga Pascal
0.32% CFRP
0.51% CFRP
32% Aluminum
2.48% Glass Fiber

25. S&P Global Mobility
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Material Analysis
by Region and
Segment

26. S&P Global Mobility 26
Material analysis by Region and Segment: Aluminum
6.36%
3.20%
1.18%
12.39%
9.73%
3.72%
1.56%
18.38%
Europe Greater China Japan/Korea North America
Aluminum Penetration in each Region
2022 2033
• Aluminum growth is coupled with two main metrics: vehicle size and vehicle price
• Some aluminum ‘fallback’ is noted in structural pillars for large vehicles to meet crash safety testing
• Recycled aluminum, in one case, is allowing a C segment SUV to afford more aluminum than the competition
• Magnesium price volatility impacts this material, but there are recycling processes to seperate out the magnesium
0.43% 0.36% 2.29%
8.14%
17.66%
59.59%
0.27%
1.34% 0.38%
3.69%
10.50% 21.43%
70.69%
0.33%
A B C D E F HVAN
Aluminum Penetration in each Segment
2022 2033

27. S&P Global Mobility 27
Material analysis by Region and Segment: Composite
0.19% 0.10% 0.15% 0.29%
2.89%
0.24% 0.17%
6.01%
Europe Greater China Japan/Korea North America
Composite Penetration in each Region
2022 2033
• Composites are proving their business case in rear closures and pickup truck beds
• Cost reductions of processes and resin formulations may have an upside to the forecast
• Production tooling, cycle times and simulation costs are the major restrictions to this material
• Chemical plant level recycling of polymers is the ESG trend to watch for this material
0.30% 0.01% 0.14% 0.09% 0.55%
24.96%
0.10%
0.19% 0.08% 1.31% 3.36%
2.16%
23.93%
0.57%
A B C D E F HVAN
Composite Penetration in each Segment
2022 2033

28. S&P Global Mobility 28
Composites market share by material type
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Composites by Material Type
Glass Fiber CFRP SMC Steel Laminated Natural Fiber

29. S&P Global Mobility 29
Conclusions
Material selection is becoming every day more important to achieve targets in terms of emissions and fuel
efficiency. OEMs have different approaches to material selection, but generally speaking they are focusing
mainly on BIW first and then on Chassis/Powertrain components to achieve their goals.
Globally Steel will be the most used material group for BIW components. Inside this group though we are
witnessing a sensible decrease in the usage of Mild steel in favor of more advanced grades of steel, like
HSS or GigaPascal Steel, more so in specific applications.
In EU we will witness a switch between Mild and HSS steel as the most used material for BIW not earlier
than 2032. Non ferrous materials such as aluminum or composites will grow in specific areas
(segments/regions).
The rise of composites applications for BIW will see a growth of Natural Fibers components by 2025-2026.
CFRP remains something niche to exotic cars given the high investment costs needed to deal with this
material.

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