The ECB and the UK General Election will dominate the focus for traders in the coming days and have the potential to significantly increase volatility for financial markets. We look at how these will impact on markets, the outlook for forex, equity indices and commodities in the coming week and potential moves that traders can expect as a result.
Politics, monetary policy and inflation all key for marketsRichard Perry
Markets are responding to a stream of key political developments in recent days. Theresa May trying to kick start the painfully slow Brexit negotiations, key elections in German and New Zealand and also the ongoing geopolitical tensions of the Korean Peninsula. Financial markets are trying to figure out the impact of all of this and the Federal Reserve monetary policy, whilst traders will also be looking ahead to key US inflation data this week. We look at the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
Reaction to Fed balance sheet reduction is keyRichard Perry
This week could be pivotal for US monetary policy. Financial markets are looking towards the FOMC meeting on Wednesday as an indicator for several key factors, however the Fed is likely to be the first central bank to start reducing the size of its balance sheet. Aside from the theoreticals, no one really knows how financial markets will react to the Fed's balance sheet reduction. We look at the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
US economic data is key for the dollar rally this weekRichard Perry
Janet Yellen has bolstered expectations of the next move from the Fed coming this summer with a suggestion that the next hike “would be appropriate” if the economic data continues to improve. So there will be a big focus on the US economic data this week with PCE, ISM and of course Non-farm Payrolls this week
Trump's tariffs driving a significant impact through marketsHantec Markets
The document provides a weekly economic and market outlook. It summarizes key economic data and events for the week, including the important US ISM non-manufacturing data on Monday. It then analyzes the outlook and risks for foreign exchange markets, equity indexes, commodities, and bonds. The author expects safe haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc to perform well due to dovish central bank policies. Equities face downside risks from slowing global growth and trade tensions. Gold is seen as continuing to rise on falling real yields and trade uncertainty.
US dollar in under huge pressure but will it continue this week?Richard Perry
Growth in China's economy is expected to exceed the government's 2017 target of 6.5% with GDP growth of around 6.9% expected when the latest figures are released on Thursday. Positive surprises in industrial production and retail sales data from China would be supportive of risk appetite, particularly for commodity currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Key economic data from the UK, eurozone, US, Canada, Australia and China will be released throughout the week, with China's GDP the highlight on Thursday.
Payrolls legacy set to drive a stronger dollar this weekHantec Markets
Such huge volatility surrounding the dollar and the euro in recent days has meant it has been difficult to trade with any real conviction. With huge fundamental (Non-farm Payrolls), news driven (Greece negotiations) and market driven (bund yield volatility) moves, forex trading has lacked decisive direction. Could this change though this week? With Greece now bundling up its repayments to the IMF to the end of the month, traders can focus elsewhere, perhaps at least for a few days anyway.
Still fixated on the Fed, markets look towards Jackson HoleHantec Markets
Janet Yellen's speech at the Jackson Hole economic symposium on Friday will be closely watched for any hints about upcoming monetary policy actions from the Federal Reserve. Markets currently expect no rate hikes in 2016 but remain data dependent. The author believes the markets may be too complacent and a rate hike in December is still possible. Overall sentiment will be influenced by Yellen's comments and upcoming economic data.
The US Presidential election is growing ever nearer and the markets are becoming more considered. The markets will though be looking towards crucial economic growth data this week which will indicate how the UK is performing post Brexit and a first look at Q3 GDP in the US as traders price in a Fed hike in December.
Politics, monetary policy and inflation all key for marketsRichard Perry
Markets are responding to a stream of key political developments in recent days. Theresa May trying to kick start the painfully slow Brexit negotiations, key elections in German and New Zealand and also the ongoing geopolitical tensions of the Korean Peninsula. Financial markets are trying to figure out the impact of all of this and the Federal Reserve monetary policy, whilst traders will also be looking ahead to key US inflation data this week. We look at the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
Reaction to Fed balance sheet reduction is keyRichard Perry
This week could be pivotal for US monetary policy. Financial markets are looking towards the FOMC meeting on Wednesday as an indicator for several key factors, however the Fed is likely to be the first central bank to start reducing the size of its balance sheet. Aside from the theoreticals, no one really knows how financial markets will react to the Fed's balance sheet reduction. We look at the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
US economic data is key for the dollar rally this weekRichard Perry
Janet Yellen has bolstered expectations of the next move from the Fed coming this summer with a suggestion that the next hike “would be appropriate” if the economic data continues to improve. So there will be a big focus on the US economic data this week with PCE, ISM and of course Non-farm Payrolls this week
Trump's tariffs driving a significant impact through marketsHantec Markets
The document provides a weekly economic and market outlook. It summarizes key economic data and events for the week, including the important US ISM non-manufacturing data on Monday. It then analyzes the outlook and risks for foreign exchange markets, equity indexes, commodities, and bonds. The author expects safe haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc to perform well due to dovish central bank policies. Equities face downside risks from slowing global growth and trade tensions. Gold is seen as continuing to rise on falling real yields and trade uncertainty.
US dollar in under huge pressure but will it continue this week?Richard Perry
Growth in China's economy is expected to exceed the government's 2017 target of 6.5% with GDP growth of around 6.9% expected when the latest figures are released on Thursday. Positive surprises in industrial production and retail sales data from China would be supportive of risk appetite, particularly for commodity currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Key economic data from the UK, eurozone, US, Canada, Australia and China will be released throughout the week, with China's GDP the highlight on Thursday.
Payrolls legacy set to drive a stronger dollar this weekHantec Markets
Such huge volatility surrounding the dollar and the euro in recent days has meant it has been difficult to trade with any real conviction. With huge fundamental (Non-farm Payrolls), news driven (Greece negotiations) and market driven (bund yield volatility) moves, forex trading has lacked decisive direction. Could this change though this week? With Greece now bundling up its repayments to the IMF to the end of the month, traders can focus elsewhere, perhaps at least for a few days anyway.
Still fixated on the Fed, markets look towards Jackson HoleHantec Markets
Janet Yellen's speech at the Jackson Hole economic symposium on Friday will be closely watched for any hints about upcoming monetary policy actions from the Federal Reserve. Markets currently expect no rate hikes in 2016 but remain data dependent. The author believes the markets may be too complacent and a rate hike in December is still possible. Overall sentiment will be influenced by Yellen's comments and upcoming economic data.
The US Presidential election is growing ever nearer and the markets are becoming more considered. The markets will though be looking towards crucial economic growth data this week which will indicate how the UK is performing post Brexit and a first look at Q3 GDP in the US as traders price in a Fed hike in December.
Treasury yields and Non-farm Payrolls are key this weekRichard Perry
The dollar strength is an increasing factor in markets as Treasury yields shoot higher. The reaction to Donald Trump's tax plan and the potential for a hawkish Kevin Warsh taking the chair of the FOMC is helping to underpin the dollar. Inflation and earnings are still key factors, with the Non-farm Payrolls report in focus. We take a look at the outlook for forex, indices and commodities markets as the final quarter of the year begins.
UK and Eurozone inflation focus in a quiet week for US dataRichard Perry
Central bankers are increasingly focusing on persuading everyone that inflation is set to turn higher, however the data continues to tell a different story, at least in the US. With a lack of tier one US data this week attention will turn to UK and Eurozone inflation data to drive sentiment. We look at the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
Are the dollar bulls in control this week?Hantec Markets
Will the dollar strength continue and allow the dollar bulls to remain in control? Are equities set for gains all the way towards the inauguration of Donald Trump on 20th January? We look into the key factors that traders and investors need to consider for their positions this week. What is the outlook for major forex, equities, commodities and bond markets?
Are markets setting up for a dollar rally this week?Richard Perry
The document provides an outlook and analysis of key economic events and financial markets for the week of January 29th, 2018. It notes that no change is expected from the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting on January 31st. It summarizes factors driving recent US dollar weakness against other major currencies and expectations for further dollar declines. It also reviews expectations for major equity markets, commodity prices, and bond yields over the coming week based on scheduled economic data releases and other events.
With a dearth of US data the ECB will be key this weekRichard Perry
The document provides a weekly outlook and analysis of key economic events and financial markets. It summarizes that central banks continue to influence market sentiment, with the ECB signaling a move towards tapering asset purchases and the Fed acknowledging that sluggish inflation may require a slower pace of rate hikes. Key events this week include inflation data from the Eurozone and UK and central bank decisions from the ECB and BoJ. Technical indicators are analyzed for various currency pairs, equity indexes, commodities and bonds.
All eyes on the Fed to drive the dollar this weekRichard Perry
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Wednesday. Treasury yields have fallen sharply following weak jobs data and comments from Janet Yellen suggesting a June rate hike is unlikely. The Fed's dot plot projections and Yellen's press conference will be closely watched for signals about the path of rates. Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan, Swiss National Bank, and Bank of England also announce monetary policy decisions this week. Brexit fears and inflation data will also influence currency and equity markets.
Politics and major central banks are key this week Richard Perry
Politics and central bank is high on the agenda this week as markets continue to react to protectionist moves from Donald Trump, the Italian election over the weekend and look forward to four major central banks announcing their latest monetary policy decisions. We consider the outlook for forex, equities and commodities markets in the coming days.
Markets continue to be pulled around by two factors, the US dollar strength and the question of when the Federal Reserve will tighten interest rates. Neither are mutually exclusive and it may be difficult to ascertain exactly which is driving which. Rate hike expectations are driving dollar strength, but hampering corporate profits and hampering inflation and growth, which is then an argument against a rate hike.
Active central banks and rising political risk key for market movesRichard Perry
Disputes over trade tariffs and increasingly active central banks are increasing the volatility on financial markets and key moves are being seen again across forex, equities and commodities. After the ECB and the Federal Reserve impacted last week, attention turns to the Bank of England this week. We consider the outlook for markets.
Is it time for some profit-taking this week?Hantec Markets
There are some key moves seen on financial markets in the past couple of weeks as the general outlook on market sentiment has undergone a seismic shift. We look at the impact that has been seen across forex markets, equities, commodities and bonds. The big question is thoguh, will the moves continue higher or is there some room for profit taking this week?
As traders return to their desks from their summer break we consider the prospects of the dollar int he coming week. Economic data makes a welcome return to switch focus away from the politics with Non-farm Payrolls topping the agenda. We consider the outlook for major forex, equities and commodities markets.
US Presidential Election will begin to take increasing importance Hantec Markets
As we move into the final quarter of the year, traders will be looking for Q4 to be somewhat more interesting that a rather subdued Q3. With the problems at Deutsche Bank causing swings in sentiment, markets will begin to now look seriously at the increasing importance of the implications of potential outcomes of the US Presidential Election and how it will affect risk appetite.
Could a turnaround last the distance for major markets? Hantec Markets
After a tumultuous period of trading on financial markets is a turning point about to be seen? If so, how long can it last? We consider the outlook for forex, equities and commodities in the coming days.
Is the medium term dollar rally about to break down?Hantec Markets
In today's Weekly Outlook we consider the progress of the dollar rally. What are the key factors impacting on forex, equity indices and commodities in the coming days.
ECB, US growth and the Fed chair will be keyRichard Perry
Markets are consolidating ahead of some major risk events throughout the next seven days. The ECB monetary policy is highly likely to be an historic event which could drive the outlook for the euro in the coming months. We also see US growth on the agenda, but we will also see what sort of vision Donald Trump has for the FOMC as he identifies the next Fed chair. We look at how the outlook for forex, equities and commodities are impacted.
Tier one data key with dollar strength setting up again Hantec Markets
A clutch of tier one data will enable traders to take a view on the path of US rate cuts for the remainder of the year. The US dollar remains a key outperformer of the major currencies and we consider the impact across forex, equities and commodities. We also look into key Brexit developments.
Brexit votes in Parliament could be crucial for sterling this weekHantec Markets
It is a crucial week in the Brexit process and we look at the implications for sterling. The ECB monetary policy actions have shifted the outlook for the euro, and we consider the implications of recent moves on forex, equities and commodities.
US inflation will be crucial across forex markets this weekHantec Markets
The document provides a weekly economic and market outlook. It notes that key upcoming economic data this week includes US CPI inflation on Thursday, which will be closely watched given the Fed's focus on inflation. Recent global PMIs point to a slowing global economy. Central banks have adopted more dovish rhetoric and bond yields have fallen sharply. The document analyzes implications for currencies like the dollar and euro, as well as equities, commodities and bonds. US CPI will be important for determining the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the Fed in July.
UK inflation and Eurozone growth will be key this weekHantec Markets
The sharp rally on oil (likely short covering) has helped to improve sentiment, however the dollar is now coming under pressure as US economic data just begins to disappoint. We look at how this could impact on financial markets in the coming days. What are the key factors to watch that will affect forex, equities and commodities traders? UK inflation and wages, along with Eurozone growth are on the agenda.
The prospect of a Brexit will drive market fears next weekHantec Markets
The prospect of a Brexit is driving market fears and is having an incredibly volatile impact across asset classes. Increased attention is now being given to individual opinion polls and the markets are spiking higher and lower.
US dollar under huge pressure but will it continue this week?Richard Perry
Aside from the incredible bull run higher seen on Wall Street, the key story for early 2018 has become the sharp weakness on the US dollar. This is impacting across financial markets as the Dollar Index has fallen to levels not seen since January 2015. But what is driving the move and what is the outlook on forex, equities and commodities markets? We take a fundamental and technical look under the bonnet.
Treasury yields and Non-farm Payrolls are key this weekRichard Perry
The dollar strength is an increasing factor in markets as Treasury yields shoot higher. The reaction to Donald Trump's tax plan and the potential for a hawkish Kevin Warsh taking the chair of the FOMC is helping to underpin the dollar. Inflation and earnings are still key factors, with the Non-farm Payrolls report in focus. We take a look at the outlook for forex, indices and commodities markets as the final quarter of the year begins.
UK and Eurozone inflation focus in a quiet week for US dataRichard Perry
Central bankers are increasingly focusing on persuading everyone that inflation is set to turn higher, however the data continues to tell a different story, at least in the US. With a lack of tier one US data this week attention will turn to UK and Eurozone inflation data to drive sentiment. We look at the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
Are the dollar bulls in control this week?Hantec Markets
Will the dollar strength continue and allow the dollar bulls to remain in control? Are equities set for gains all the way towards the inauguration of Donald Trump on 20th January? We look into the key factors that traders and investors need to consider for their positions this week. What is the outlook for major forex, equities, commodities and bond markets?
Are markets setting up for a dollar rally this week?Richard Perry
The document provides an outlook and analysis of key economic events and financial markets for the week of January 29th, 2018. It notes that no change is expected from the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting on January 31st. It summarizes factors driving recent US dollar weakness against other major currencies and expectations for further dollar declines. It also reviews expectations for major equity markets, commodity prices, and bond yields over the coming week based on scheduled economic data releases and other events.
With a dearth of US data the ECB will be key this weekRichard Perry
The document provides a weekly outlook and analysis of key economic events and financial markets. It summarizes that central banks continue to influence market sentiment, with the ECB signaling a move towards tapering asset purchases and the Fed acknowledging that sluggish inflation may require a slower pace of rate hikes. Key events this week include inflation data from the Eurozone and UK and central bank decisions from the ECB and BoJ. Technical indicators are analyzed for various currency pairs, equity indexes, commodities and bonds.
All eyes on the Fed to drive the dollar this weekRichard Perry
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Wednesday. Treasury yields have fallen sharply following weak jobs data and comments from Janet Yellen suggesting a June rate hike is unlikely. The Fed's dot plot projections and Yellen's press conference will be closely watched for signals about the path of rates. Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan, Swiss National Bank, and Bank of England also announce monetary policy decisions this week. Brexit fears and inflation data will also influence currency and equity markets.
Politics and major central banks are key this week Richard Perry
Politics and central bank is high on the agenda this week as markets continue to react to protectionist moves from Donald Trump, the Italian election over the weekend and look forward to four major central banks announcing their latest monetary policy decisions. We consider the outlook for forex, equities and commodities markets in the coming days.
Markets continue to be pulled around by two factors, the US dollar strength and the question of when the Federal Reserve will tighten interest rates. Neither are mutually exclusive and it may be difficult to ascertain exactly which is driving which. Rate hike expectations are driving dollar strength, but hampering corporate profits and hampering inflation and growth, which is then an argument against a rate hike.
Active central banks and rising political risk key for market movesRichard Perry
Disputes over trade tariffs and increasingly active central banks are increasing the volatility on financial markets and key moves are being seen again across forex, equities and commodities. After the ECB and the Federal Reserve impacted last week, attention turns to the Bank of England this week. We consider the outlook for markets.
Is it time for some profit-taking this week?Hantec Markets
There are some key moves seen on financial markets in the past couple of weeks as the general outlook on market sentiment has undergone a seismic shift. We look at the impact that has been seen across forex markets, equities, commodities and bonds. The big question is thoguh, will the moves continue higher or is there some room for profit taking this week?
As traders return to their desks from their summer break we consider the prospects of the dollar int he coming week. Economic data makes a welcome return to switch focus away from the politics with Non-farm Payrolls topping the agenda. We consider the outlook for major forex, equities and commodities markets.
US Presidential Election will begin to take increasing importance Hantec Markets
As we move into the final quarter of the year, traders will be looking for Q4 to be somewhat more interesting that a rather subdued Q3. With the problems at Deutsche Bank causing swings in sentiment, markets will begin to now look seriously at the increasing importance of the implications of potential outcomes of the US Presidential Election and how it will affect risk appetite.
Could a turnaround last the distance for major markets? Hantec Markets
After a tumultuous period of trading on financial markets is a turning point about to be seen? If so, how long can it last? We consider the outlook for forex, equities and commodities in the coming days.
Is the medium term dollar rally about to break down?Hantec Markets
In today's Weekly Outlook we consider the progress of the dollar rally. What are the key factors impacting on forex, equity indices and commodities in the coming days.
ECB, US growth and the Fed chair will be keyRichard Perry
Markets are consolidating ahead of some major risk events throughout the next seven days. The ECB monetary policy is highly likely to be an historic event which could drive the outlook for the euro in the coming months. We also see US growth on the agenda, but we will also see what sort of vision Donald Trump has for the FOMC as he identifies the next Fed chair. We look at how the outlook for forex, equities and commodities are impacted.
Tier one data key with dollar strength setting up again Hantec Markets
A clutch of tier one data will enable traders to take a view on the path of US rate cuts for the remainder of the year. The US dollar remains a key outperformer of the major currencies and we consider the impact across forex, equities and commodities. We also look into key Brexit developments.
Brexit votes in Parliament could be crucial for sterling this weekHantec Markets
It is a crucial week in the Brexit process and we look at the implications for sterling. The ECB monetary policy actions have shifted the outlook for the euro, and we consider the implications of recent moves on forex, equities and commodities.
US inflation will be crucial across forex markets this weekHantec Markets
The document provides a weekly economic and market outlook. It notes that key upcoming economic data this week includes US CPI inflation on Thursday, which will be closely watched given the Fed's focus on inflation. Recent global PMIs point to a slowing global economy. Central banks have adopted more dovish rhetoric and bond yields have fallen sharply. The document analyzes implications for currencies like the dollar and euro, as well as equities, commodities and bonds. US CPI will be important for determining the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the Fed in July.
UK inflation and Eurozone growth will be key this weekHantec Markets
The sharp rally on oil (likely short covering) has helped to improve sentiment, however the dollar is now coming under pressure as US economic data just begins to disappoint. We look at how this could impact on financial markets in the coming days. What are the key factors to watch that will affect forex, equities and commodities traders? UK inflation and wages, along with Eurozone growth are on the agenda.
The prospect of a Brexit will drive market fears next weekHantec Markets
The prospect of a Brexit is driving market fears and is having an incredibly volatile impact across asset classes. Increased attention is now being given to individual opinion polls and the markets are spiking higher and lower.
US dollar under huge pressure but will it continue this week?Richard Perry
Aside from the incredible bull run higher seen on Wall Street, the key story for early 2018 has become the sharp weakness on the US dollar. This is impacting across financial markets as the Dollar Index has fallen to levels not seen since January 2015. But what is driving the move and what is the outlook on forex, equities and commodities markets? We take a fundamental and technical look under the bonnet.
Trump/Kim, the FOMC and ECB all crucial this weekHantec Markets
After the acrimonious culmination of the G7 meeting at the weekend, financial markets are already looking forward to a hectic few days ahead. A crucial geopolitical summit between the US and North Korea, in addition to crucial central bank decisions from the FOMC and ECB. We consider the outlook on forex, equities and commodities markets.
Could the Fed drive a Santa Claus rally this week?Hantec Markets
It may be the final trading week of the year, but the key risks remain and volatility is elevated. The FOMC monetary policy will be the key risk factor for traders this week. We consider the impact on forex, equities and commodities.
Trade negotiations and the Fed meeting key this weekHantec Markets
As signs that the global cyclical slowdown continue, it is a crucial week for markets with another meeting between the US and China on trade, Fed monetary policy, more Brexit debate and Non-farm Payrolls. We consider the latest outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
Dollar still gains despite geopolitics impacting markets once moreRichard Perry
We take a look at what is driving forex, equities and commodities markets this week. Moves on yield differentials and the US dollar are still key for market direction whilst geopolitical factors are once more impacting.
US dollar bulls looking closely at trade talks this weekHantec Markets
The outcome of the US/China trade negotiations remain key for the near to medium term outlook on markets. The US dollar is a key mover on this. We look at how this is impacting on the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
US inflation key to a potential dollar recovery this weekRichard Perry
The dollar has jumped in the wake of Friday's Non-farm Payrolls report. However what has really changed, and is this a move that can be sustained by the dollar? We look at what the key factors to watch out for this week and the outlook for forex, equities and commodities markets with a technical analysis of the major instruments.
Trade negotiations and renewed dollar strength is key this weekHantec Markets
The weekly outlook report provides an overview of key economic events and indicators for the coming week, as well as analysis of currency, equity, commodity, and bond markets. Key events include Eurozone flash PMIs on Thursday and US existing home sales data on Tuesday. The report notes renewed US dollar strength and risks to growth from an escalating US-China trade dispute. It recommends using rallies in sterling and the euro as selling opportunities given political and growth risks.
Brexit reaches a critical stage for sterling this weekHantec Markets
With volatility at elevated levels, December is turning out to be another choppy month for markets. Brexit is reaching a critical stage, whilst fears are growing for the US economic prospects as the bond markets seem to be pricing in for a potential recession further down the line. We look at the impact on forex, equities and commodities markets and what to watch for this week.
China data is set to drive risk appetite this weekHantec Markets
We could begin to learn a lot more this week about the current outlook for the global economy as there is a whole raft of economic data points out of China to drive risk appetite as they will paint a picture of how the economic re-balancing of the world’s second largest economy is progressing.
The document provides an economic outlook and analysis for the coming week. It discusses key economic data releases including US CPI inflation figures on Friday which are expected to rise and could impact the dollar and bond yields if inflation begins rising sustainably. It also notes ongoing political uncertainty in the UK dampening sterling and analyzes various currency pairs and equity indexes, noting many are reaching key technical levels.
The weekly outlook provides a forecast for the upcoming week's key economic events and their potential impact. It expects the ECB to cut interest rates by 0.4% on Thursday but notes the market may be pricing in a larger 0.2% cut. China's trade and inflation data on Tuesday and Thursday will influence risk appetite. Central bank meetings in Canada, New Zealand and the Eurozone will drive volatility in their currencies and the euro.
Will US stronger US relative economic performance continue? Hantec Markets
With the US Government shutdown coming to an end, delayed US data will begin to filter through and after the dovish shift from the Fed it will be interesting to see if US economic outperformance continues to show and how this impacts on the dollar. We look at the key factors impacting on forex, equities and commodities this week.
Similar to ECB and UK General Election are key risk events this week (14)
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How Does CRISIL Evaluate Lenders in India for Credit RatingsShaheen Kumar
CRISIL evaluates lenders in India by analyzing financial performance, loan portfolio quality, risk management practices, capital adequacy, market position, and adherence to regulatory requirements. This comprehensive assessment ensures a thorough evaluation of creditworthiness and financial strength. Each criterion is meticulously examined to provide credible and reliable ratings.
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ECB and UK General Election are key risk events this week
1. Weekly Outlook
Monday 5th June by Richard Perry, Market Analyst
Forex and CFDs are high risk leveraged products that can result in losses greater than your initial deposit and you should
therefore only speculate with money you can afford to lose. FX and CFD trading are not suitable for everyone. Please
ensure you fully understand the risks involved, seeking independent advice if necessary prior to entering into such
transactions. You should first carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite and only
invest funds you are prepared to lose entirely. For our full risk warning, please go to the end of this report.
WHEN: Thursday 8th June, 1245BST
LAST: 0.0% main, -0.4% deposit
FORECAST: 0.0% main, -0.4% deposit
Impact: This could be a momentous ECB meeting.
According to Reuters, ECB sources suggest that the
Governing Council will acknowledge better growth (with
the PMIs also remaining strong) and will subsequently
dial back on the easing bias in the language of the
forward guidance. The ECB appears ready to drop a
long standing reference to downside risks, instead
referring to risks as “largely balanced”. This would mark
the first step towards normalisation of monetary policy.
The euro has been strong and is likely to gain ground
further if this is seen. Expect Bund yields to jump too.
Key Economic Events
Date Time Country Indicator Consensus Last
Mon 6th Jun 15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 57.0 57.2
Mon 6th Jun 15:00 US Factory Orders (MoM) -0.2% +0.5%
Tue 7th Jun 05:30 Australia RBA monetary policy 1.50% 1.50%
Tue 7th Jun 15:00 US JOLTS jobs openings 5.74
Wed 8th Jun 15:30 US EIA Crude oil inventories -6.4m
Thu 9th Jun 02:30 China Trade Balance (Exports / Imports) +7.0% / +8.5% +8.0% / +11.9%
Thu 9th Jun ALL UK Parliamentary Elections (key impact on 10th Jun)
Thu 9th Jun 12:45 Eurozone ECB monetary policy (main refi / deposit) 0.0% / -0.4% 0.0% / -0.4%
Fri 10th Jun 02:30 China Inflation (CPI & PPI) +1.5% / +5.7% +1.2% / +6.4%
Fri 10th Jun 09:30 UK Industrial Production (MoM) +0.7% -0.5%
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1N.B. Please note all times are British Summer Time BST (GMT+1), data source Reuters
Macro Commentary
In the next couple of weeks there could be some significant volatility increasing in the major markets. In the next
two weeks there is a General Election in the UK in addition to two crucial central bank monetary policy
announcements from the ECB and then the Federal Reserve next week. For this coming week, first up is the ECB
on Thursday. Economic trends have been improving in the Eurozone for several months now and although inflation
has been fluctuating, the PMIs suggest continued economic recovery. Expectation is that the ECB will reflect this
improvement in the forward guidance for the meeting this week and this could involve the removal of just two words
“or lower” but this would signal a removal of its commitment to extend easing measures on a deterioration. This
would signal to the market that normalisation has begun. It would also leave the door open to announcing the next
step, the start of tapering asset purchases at the September meeting with a view for the tapering say $20bn per
month at the beginning of January. The euro will be volatile. Also on Thursday the UK holds its parliamentary
elections. There will be an exit poll at 2200BST that night and the volatility will begin on sterling. The moves will
continue throughout Friday on the announcement of individual constituencies that are considered bellwethers. If
the result is any sort of surprise there will be a significant reaction on both sterling and FTSE 100.
Must Watch for: ECB monetary policy
German 2 year Shatz yield
The start of normalisation is likely to signal an upturn for the yield
of the German 2 year Shatz
2. Weekly Outlook
Monday 5th June by Richard Perry, Market Analyst
Foreign Exchange
Forex volatility will be elevated with some crucial factors impacting the key major currencies. The dollar is likely
to remain under pressure following Friday’s disappointing Non-farm Payrolls report with the continuing run of
light US data that would impact on Fed monetary policy going forward. The key focus for euro traders will be the
ECB meeting on Thursday. The euro has been rallying recently as economic data has picked up, in anticipation
of the ECB making the first move towards normalisation. These could be tentative steps but still significant.
However there is a risk that the immediate impact could be euro negative as markets have priced in this move.
This could lead to a dip on the euro possibly back to the technical support band $1.1020/$1.1100 on EUR/USD
that would give a chance to buy for medium term upside towards the base pattern target at $1.1350 in due
course. The outlook for sterling is a lot more difficult to call. The London terror attack has had little impact but on
Thursday night at 2200BST, exit polls will give the first indication of the next UK government which will increase
volatility throughout the Thursday night and Friday. A mild increase in Tory majority is likely and would be
relatively market neutral with a GBP/USD range of $1.2600/$1.3000. A strong increase in majority would be the
most sterling positive, driving GBP/USD above $1.3000 and possibly towards $1.3350/$1.3500 if the majority
approaches 100 seats. A hung parliament would be negative and weaken sterling towards $1.2000/$1.2500.
WATCH FOR: ECB monetary policy and the UK election will be crucial. The RBA will impact the Aussie.
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2
FX Outlook
GBP/USD
Watch for: The UK election will be a key driver
of direction
Outlook: Sterling continues to hold on to the key
long term breakout at $1.2775 and this remains
a key gauge for sentiment moving into the week
of the election. The final few polls may drive near
term volatility but trader may be reluctant to take
a view considering the polling uncertainties.
Direction will be generated from the election
result. Technically the market looks to be
rangebound between $1.2775/$1.3050 but a
downside break of the support would form a top
pattern that would imply 275 pips of downside to
$1.2500. This could be seen on any result that is
not an increase in majority for the Tories.
Momentum is now more neutrally configured and
the market seems to be factoring in little real
change as the election result.
EUR/USD
Watch for: The euro is breaking higher ahead of
the ECB meeting
Outlook: The bulls remain in control and
corrections remain a chance to buy. The old long
term pivot level at $1.1100 has been bolstered
as a basis of support by last week’s low at
$1.1108 but the subsequent gains in the wake of
the Non-farm Payrolls disappointment have
driven a breakout to a new high dating back to
9th November. The medium to longer term base
pattern continues to target $1.1350 and this
could easily be seen if the ECB makes a
decisive first move towards normalisation.
Momentum is strongly configured for further
upside.
3. Weekly Outlook
Monday 5th June by Richard Perry, Market Analyst
Equity Markets
A wave of positivity has swept global equity markets to new high ground in the past week. Until recently
markets have been broadly stuck in sideways consolidation ranges. The DAX, CAC and the Dow Jones
Industrial Average have all been stuck rangebound, however a pick up in US data allowed Wall Street to burst
higher late last week and other markets have followed suit b seemingly breaking the shackles. However the
disappointing payrolls report on Friday hit market sentiment and could now be a millstone for the bulls once
more. With little real reaction following the London terror attacks, for the FTSE 100 the focus will be on the UK
General Election that is taking place on Thursday. Will the polling booths open, Thursday could be fairly quiet,
however the real action will be seen on Friday. With a strong indication already known from the results coming
in overnight, the market is likely to gap at the open on Friday. The correlation between FTSE 100 and sterling
has been an interesting trade over recent months and it has been intriguing that the correlation had been
positive during the early weeks of the campaign. This is because an increased Conservative majority would be
seen as sterling positive (growth positive and less uncertainty over Brexit). However as the Tory campaign has
faltered and Theresa May’s “strong and stable” mantra has been increasingly questionable, the correlation as
turned more negative again, but is likely to be short-lived. My expectation of a mild increase in the Tory majority
would be a relatively neutral for FTSE 100, but a hung parliament would drag the index back to 7100/7255. A
strong increase in majority would help sustain the all time highs.
WATCH FOR: ECB meeting impacting on DAX and CAC, with FTSE 100 volatile on UK General Election.
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3
DAX Xetra
Watch for: With support holding the bulls appear
to be back in control
Outlook: Corrections on the DAX continue to be
bought into, and the rally on Friday just shows
that this remains the strategy. A period of
consolidation held on to the key breakout
support band 12,375/12,486 and the bulls have
now looked to breakout once more. Can the
market sustain the positive momentum into this
week? If the momentum indicators are anything
to go by, the outlook remains positive with the
Stochastics giving a buy signal and the RSI
rising in the high 60s. The ECB monetary policy
will drive volatility later in the week.
FTSE 100
Watch for: The move into all time high ground is
stuttering ahead of the election
Outlook: As rival markets have consolidate, the
FTSE 100 has been a key outperformer in recent
weeks. This has pulled the market well into new
high ground, however in front of the election
there could be a near term stalling in the run
higher. Momentum indicators are just beginning
to lose their way a touch even though they
remain positively configured. A six week uptrend
is being pressured as the bulls just begin to
stutter. Last week’s low at 7497 is the initial
support, whilst there is a support band
7400/7450 that the bulls will be keen to hold on
to now. The UK election will likely cause some
significant volatility though.
Index Outlook
4. Weekly Outlook
Monday 5th June by Richard Perry, Market Analyst
Other Assets: Commodities & Bonds
As the dollar has remained under pressure, gold has been supported. However even though the gold price has
been tracking higher, it is as though it has been a rally with the hand brake on. There has been an air of
generally positive market sentiment currently which has held the bulls back. Although gold pushed higher in the
wake of the disappointing Non-farm Payrolls and there is a feeling that there could be some further gains now
towards $1295, the medium term upside potential is becoming limited. The Dollar Index is now close to the 96
key pivot and this could begin to limit the gains. Oil completed a key breakdown last week with WTI below $48
and Brent back below $50 supports. Concerns over the efficacy of OPEC production cuts with Libya increasing
output, but also US production now Trump has withdrawn from the Paris Climate Agreement have weighed on
sentiment.
A flattening of the US yield curve remains an issue. The 2 year yield has been relatively stable recently
(although showed signs weakness in the wake of the disappointing payrolls). However it has been the decline in
the 10 year yield that has been such an eye opener. Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast may continue to call for 4.0%
GDP in Q2, however, as the US economic data has deteriorated, the 10 year yield has dropped back from
2.300% to retest the low at 2.165%. A breach would suggest a further reversal of the reflation trade.
WATCH FOR: ECB meeting to impact commodities sentiment. ISM Non-Manufacturing will also be key.
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4
Gold
Watch for: Breaking out again has opened a run
towards the April high
Outlook: The upside rally on gold found a new
lease of life with the Non-farm Payrolls
disappointment. Holding the breakout above
$1261 the way is now open for a move back
towards the $1295 April high. Momentum
indicators are positively configured and the
outlook remains positive to buy into weakness.
The RSI has been sluggish but pushed into the
low 60s on Friday and the rallies have tended to
push towards 70. The pivot at $1261 is now a
basis of support for the bull run remaining on
track.
Markets Outlook
Brent Crude oil
Watch for: Near term head and shoulders top
implies $47.45
Outlook: The bearish outlook is gathering pace
now the support at $51 has been decisively
breached. This completed a head and shoulders
top pattern which implies $3.65 of additional
downside towards $47.45. The subsequent loss
of the historic support at $50 simply confirms the
negative near to medium term outlook now.
Rallies are a chance to sell, meaning a pullback
into $51/$51.45 will be eyed as an opportunity.
The key May low at $46.65 will now be eyed as
the sellers look to be in control. It would need a
rally back above the right hand shoulder
resistance at $52.60 to abort the corrective
outlook.
5. Weekly Outlook
Monday 5th June by Richard Perry, Market Analyst
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5
Risk Warning for Financial Promotions
This report is issued by Hantec Markets Limited, who is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority
(FCA) in the UK, No. 502635. The report is prepared and distributed for information purposes only.
Trading in Foreign Exchange (FX), Bullion and Contracts for Differences (CFDs) is not be suitable for all investors due to
the high risk nature of these products. Forex, Bullion and CFDs are leveraged products that can result in losses greater
than your initial deposit. The value of an FX, Bullion or CFD position may be affected by a variety of factors, including but
not limited to, price volatility, market volume, foreign exchange rates and liquidity. You may lose your entire initial stake
and you may be required to make additional payments. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved, seeking
independent advice if necessary prior to entering into such transactions. Before deciding to enter into FX, Bullion and/or
CFD trading, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should
only invest in FX, Bullion and/or CFD trading with funds you are prepared to lose entirely. Therefore, only your excess
funds should be placed at risk and anyone who does not have such excess funds should completely refrain from engaging
in FX and/or CFD trading. Do not rely on past performance figures. If you are in any doubt, please seek further
independent advice.
This report does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the individual financial
circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. All information and research produced by Hantec Markets is
intended to be general in nature; it does not constitute a recommendation or offer for the purchase or sale of any
financial instrument, nor should it be construed as such. All of the views or suggestions within this report are those solely
and exclusively of the author, and accurately reflect his personal views about any and all of the subject instruments and
are presented to the best of the author’s knowledge. Any person relying on this report to undertake trading does so
entirely at his/her own risk and Hantec Markets does not accept any liability.
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