Markets are consolidating ahead of some major risk events throughout the next seven days. The ECB monetary policy is highly likely to be an historic event which could drive the outlook for the euro in the coming months. We also see US growth on the agenda, but we will also see what sort of vision Donald Trump has for the FOMC as he identifies the next Fed chair. We look at how the outlook for forex, equities and commodities are impacted.
UK and Eurozone inflation focus in a quiet week for US dataRichard Perry
Central bankers are increasingly focusing on persuading everyone that inflation is set to turn higher, however the data continues to tell a different story, at least in the US. With a lack of tier one US data this week attention will turn to UK and Eurozone inflation data to drive sentiment. We look at the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
The weekly outlook provides a forecast for the upcoming week's key economic events and their potential impact. It expects the ECB to cut interest rates by 0.4% on Thursday but notes the market may be pricing in a larger 0.2% cut. China's trade and inflation data on Tuesday and Thursday will influence risk appetite. Central bank meetings in Canada, New Zealand and the Eurozone will drive volatility in their currencies and the euro.
US dollar in under huge pressure but will it continue this week?Richard Perry
Growth in China's economy is expected to exceed the government's 2017 target of 6.5% with GDP growth of around 6.9% expected when the latest figures are released on Thursday. Positive surprises in industrial production and retail sales data from China would be supportive of risk appetite, particularly for commodity currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Key economic data from the UK, eurozone, US, Canada, Australia and China will be released throughout the week, with China's GDP the highlight on Thursday.
As traders return to their desks from their summer break we consider the prospects of the dollar int he coming week. Economic data makes a welcome return to switch focus away from the politics with Non-farm Payrolls topping the agenda. We consider the outlook for major forex, equities and commodities markets.
The dollar and US Treasury yields remain key Hantec Markets
In the final week before Christmas, the US dollar may have started with a minor corrective move, however the medium to longer term outlook seems to be well set now for ongoing dollar strength, with US Treasury yields a significant driving force. We look at the key factors to consider for forex markets, equities and commodities ahead of the New Year.
Escalation of the trade dispute remains key this weekHantec Markets
With Donald Trump continuing to escalate his protectionist rhetoric in the trade dispute with China, the geopolitical risks remain paramount for traders this week. How does this impact on the US dollar and emerging markets? We look at the impact on forex majors, equities and commodities markets in the coming days.
Bond markets remain in focus after recent curve inversionHantec Markets
Economic data for the US is key to how bond yields respond and how this impacts across major markets. The first week of the month is always jam packed with tier one data and this one could be key for the dollar. We look at the impact on forex, equities and commodities.
Politics and major central banks are key this week Richard Perry
Politics and central bank is high on the agenda this week as markets continue to react to protectionist moves from Donald Trump, the Italian election over the weekend and look forward to four major central banks announcing their latest monetary policy decisions. We consider the outlook for forex, equities and commodities markets in the coming days.
UK and Eurozone inflation focus in a quiet week for US dataRichard Perry
Central bankers are increasingly focusing on persuading everyone that inflation is set to turn higher, however the data continues to tell a different story, at least in the US. With a lack of tier one US data this week attention will turn to UK and Eurozone inflation data to drive sentiment. We look at the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
The weekly outlook provides a forecast for the upcoming week's key economic events and their potential impact. It expects the ECB to cut interest rates by 0.4% on Thursday but notes the market may be pricing in a larger 0.2% cut. China's trade and inflation data on Tuesday and Thursday will influence risk appetite. Central bank meetings in Canada, New Zealand and the Eurozone will drive volatility in their currencies and the euro.
US dollar in under huge pressure but will it continue this week?Richard Perry
Growth in China's economy is expected to exceed the government's 2017 target of 6.5% with GDP growth of around 6.9% expected when the latest figures are released on Thursday. Positive surprises in industrial production and retail sales data from China would be supportive of risk appetite, particularly for commodity currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Key economic data from the UK, eurozone, US, Canada, Australia and China will be released throughout the week, with China's GDP the highlight on Thursday.
As traders return to their desks from their summer break we consider the prospects of the dollar int he coming week. Economic data makes a welcome return to switch focus away from the politics with Non-farm Payrolls topping the agenda. We consider the outlook for major forex, equities and commodities markets.
The dollar and US Treasury yields remain key Hantec Markets
In the final week before Christmas, the US dollar may have started with a minor corrective move, however the medium to longer term outlook seems to be well set now for ongoing dollar strength, with US Treasury yields a significant driving force. We look at the key factors to consider for forex markets, equities and commodities ahead of the New Year.
Escalation of the trade dispute remains key this weekHantec Markets
With Donald Trump continuing to escalate his protectionist rhetoric in the trade dispute with China, the geopolitical risks remain paramount for traders this week. How does this impact on the US dollar and emerging markets? We look at the impact on forex majors, equities and commodities markets in the coming days.
Bond markets remain in focus after recent curve inversionHantec Markets
Economic data for the US is key to how bond yields respond and how this impacts across major markets. The first week of the month is always jam packed with tier one data and this one could be key for the dollar. We look at the impact on forex, equities and commodities.
Politics and major central banks are key this week Richard Perry
Politics and central bank is high on the agenda this week as markets continue to react to protectionist moves from Donald Trump, the Italian election over the weekend and look forward to four major central banks announcing their latest monetary policy decisions. We consider the outlook for forex, equities and commodities markets in the coming days.
Trade negotiations and the Fed meeting key this weekHantec Markets
As signs that the global cyclical slowdown continue, it is a crucial week for markets with another meeting between the US and China on trade, Fed monetary policy, more Brexit debate and Non-farm Payrolls. We consider the latest outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
Are markets setting up for a dollar rally this week?Richard Perry
The document provides an outlook and analysis of key economic events and financial markets for the week of January 29th, 2018. It notes that no change is expected from the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting on January 31st. It summarizes factors driving recent US dollar weakness against other major currencies and expectations for further dollar declines. It also reviews expectations for major equity markets, commodity prices, and bond yields over the coming week based on scheduled economic data releases and other events.
Is the medium term dollar rally about to break down?Hantec Markets
In today's Weekly Outlook we consider the progress of the dollar rally. What are the key factors impacting on forex, equity indices and commodities in the coming days.
Tax reform remains key with US CPI in focus this weekRichard Perry
The perception of progress in US tax reform remains a key driver of financial markets with CPI inflation in focus. Treasury yields are still a key factor in how the US dollar trades and for this tax reform plays a key role. We take a look at the outlook for forex, equities and commodities markets this week
UK inflation and Eurozone growth will be key this weekHantec Markets
The sharp rally on oil (likely short covering) has helped to improve sentiment, however the dollar is now coming under pressure as US economic data just begins to disappoint. We look at how this could impact on financial markets in the coming days. What are the key factors to watch that will affect forex, equities and commodities traders? UK inflation and wages, along with Eurozone growth are on the agenda.
Dollar still gains despite geopolitics impacting markets once moreRichard Perry
We take a look at what is driving forex, equities and commodities markets this week. Moves on yield differentials and the US dollar are still key for market direction whilst geopolitical factors are once more impacting.
Treasury yields and Non-farm Payrolls are key this weekRichard Perry
The dollar strength is an increasing factor in markets as Treasury yields shoot higher. The reaction to Donald Trump's tax plan and the potential for a hawkish Kevin Warsh taking the chair of the FOMC is helping to underpin the dollar. Inflation and earnings are still key factors, with the Non-farm Payrolls report in focus. We take a look at the outlook for forex, indices and commodities markets as the final quarter of the year begins.
Could a turnaround last the distance for major markets? Hantec Markets
After a tumultuous period of trading on financial markets is a turning point about to be seen? If so, how long can it last? We consider the outlook for forex, equities and commodities in the coming days.
US inflation and new Fed chair in focus this weekRichard Perry
All eyes will turn back to the US this week as newly appointed Fed chair Jerome Powell faces the Congressional committees for the first time this week. Along with crucial inflation data this will be key for markets. We take a look at the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
China and US trade dispute remains a key driverRichard Perry
A significant driver of recent trading sentiment has been taken from the flows of news over the trade dispute between the US and China. This remains an issue this week and we take a look at the impact on forex, equity markets and commodities.
Brexit votes in Parliament could be crucial for sterling this weekHantec Markets
It is a crucial week in the Brexit process and we look at the implications for sterling. The ECB monetary policy actions have shifted the outlook for the euro, and we consider the implications of recent moves on forex, equities and commodities.
Politics, monetary policy and inflation all key for marketsRichard Perry
Markets are responding to a stream of key political developments in recent days. Theresa May trying to kick start the painfully slow Brexit negotiations, key elections in German and New Zealand and also the ongoing geopolitical tensions of the Korean Peninsula. Financial markets are trying to figure out the impact of all of this and the Federal Reserve monetary policy, whilst traders will also be looking ahead to key US inflation data this week. We look at the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
US inflation in focus with bond markets increasingly keyHantec Markets
There has been a significant shift in the outlook on bond markets and this is impacting across asset classes. How this plays out in the coming days could be key for the medium term outlook. Focus is on US inflation data this week. We consider the outlook on forex, equities and commodities markets.
Trump's tariffs driving a significant impact through marketsHantec Markets
The document provides a weekly economic and market outlook. It summarizes key economic data and events for the week, including the important US ISM non-manufacturing data on Monday. It then analyzes the outlook and risks for foreign exchange markets, equity indexes, commodities, and bonds. The author expects safe haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc to perform well due to dovish central bank policies. Equities face downside risks from slowing global growth and trade tensions. Gold is seen as continuing to rise on falling real yields and trade uncertainty.
Contagion fears flowing through markets this weekHantec Markets
The document provides a weekly outlook and analysis of key economic events and financial markets. It notes that politics are driving market moves with increased geopolitical risks. UK inflation data on Wednesday will be watched closely. Analysis is provided on major currency pairs, stock indexes, commodities and bonds. Risks are elevated and political factors like trade disputes are impacting demand concerns and contributing to volatility.
Trump/Kim, the FOMC and ECB all crucial this weekHantec Markets
After the acrimonious culmination of the G7 meeting at the weekend, financial markets are already looking forward to a hectic few days ahead. A crucial geopolitical summit between the US and North Korea, in addition to crucial central bank decisions from the FOMC and ECB. We consider the outlook on forex, equities and commodities markets.
Tax reform and Brexit negotiations key across majors Richard Perry
The weekly outlook document provides analysis of key economic indicators and events for the coming week as well as forecasts for foreign exchange markets, equity indexes, commodities, and bonds. It notes that US non-farm payrolls and average hourly earnings data on Friday will be important to watch as the impact of hurricanes on prior months' data normalizes. Progress on US tax reform and Brexit negotiations will also be closely monitored for effects on markets.
Political risk of a trade war continues to drive sentimentHantec Markets
Political risk remains key moving into what looks to be a quiet week on financial markets. How the issue of US trade tariffs continues to develop over the coming days will be key for sentiment. Will protectionist fears subside or proliferate? We look at the outlook for financial markets and impact on forex, equity indices and commodities.
Can the dollar continue to rebound as payrolls loom?Hantec Markets
The document provides Richard Perry's weekly market outlook and analysis for the week of October 1st, 2018. It discusses key economic events, including US non-farm payrolls and average hourly earnings data on Friday. It analyzes currency markets, with the euro under pressure due to concerns over Italy's budget deficit. Equity markets are also discussed, with continued strength in the US but concerns in Europe. Commodities like gold and oil are covered. Overall it provides a comprehensive weekly overview and outlook for the global financial markets.
Will US stronger US relative economic performance continue? Hantec Markets
With the US Government shutdown coming to an end, delayed US data will begin to filter through and after the dovish shift from the Fed it will be interesting to see if US economic outperformance continues to show and how this impacts on the dollar. We look at the key factors impacting on forex, equities and commodities this week.
US dollar under huge pressure but will it continue this week?Richard Perry
Aside from the incredible bull run higher seen on Wall Street, the key story for early 2018 has become the sharp weakness on the US dollar. This is impacting across financial markets as the Dollar Index has fallen to levels not seen since January 2015. But what is driving the move and what is the outlook on forex, equities and commodities markets? We take a fundamental and technical look under the bonnet.
The glass is half empty with focus on US growthHantec Markets
As the reasons to be fearful in financial markets seem to be growing. We consider the factors impacting on market outlook and what is driving forex, equities and commodities this week.
Trade negotiations and the Fed meeting key this weekHantec Markets
As signs that the global cyclical slowdown continue, it is a crucial week for markets with another meeting between the US and China on trade, Fed monetary policy, more Brexit debate and Non-farm Payrolls. We consider the latest outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
Are markets setting up for a dollar rally this week?Richard Perry
The document provides an outlook and analysis of key economic events and financial markets for the week of January 29th, 2018. It notes that no change is expected from the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting on January 31st. It summarizes factors driving recent US dollar weakness against other major currencies and expectations for further dollar declines. It also reviews expectations for major equity markets, commodity prices, and bond yields over the coming week based on scheduled economic data releases and other events.
Is the medium term dollar rally about to break down?Hantec Markets
In today's Weekly Outlook we consider the progress of the dollar rally. What are the key factors impacting on forex, equity indices and commodities in the coming days.
Tax reform remains key with US CPI in focus this weekRichard Perry
The perception of progress in US tax reform remains a key driver of financial markets with CPI inflation in focus. Treasury yields are still a key factor in how the US dollar trades and for this tax reform plays a key role. We take a look at the outlook for forex, equities and commodities markets this week
UK inflation and Eurozone growth will be key this weekHantec Markets
The sharp rally on oil (likely short covering) has helped to improve sentiment, however the dollar is now coming under pressure as US economic data just begins to disappoint. We look at how this could impact on financial markets in the coming days. What are the key factors to watch that will affect forex, equities and commodities traders? UK inflation and wages, along with Eurozone growth are on the agenda.
Dollar still gains despite geopolitics impacting markets once moreRichard Perry
We take a look at what is driving forex, equities and commodities markets this week. Moves on yield differentials and the US dollar are still key for market direction whilst geopolitical factors are once more impacting.
Treasury yields and Non-farm Payrolls are key this weekRichard Perry
The dollar strength is an increasing factor in markets as Treasury yields shoot higher. The reaction to Donald Trump's tax plan and the potential for a hawkish Kevin Warsh taking the chair of the FOMC is helping to underpin the dollar. Inflation and earnings are still key factors, with the Non-farm Payrolls report in focus. We take a look at the outlook for forex, indices and commodities markets as the final quarter of the year begins.
Could a turnaround last the distance for major markets? Hantec Markets
After a tumultuous period of trading on financial markets is a turning point about to be seen? If so, how long can it last? We consider the outlook for forex, equities and commodities in the coming days.
US inflation and new Fed chair in focus this weekRichard Perry
All eyes will turn back to the US this week as newly appointed Fed chair Jerome Powell faces the Congressional committees for the first time this week. Along with crucial inflation data this will be key for markets. We take a look at the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
China and US trade dispute remains a key driverRichard Perry
A significant driver of recent trading sentiment has been taken from the flows of news over the trade dispute between the US and China. This remains an issue this week and we take a look at the impact on forex, equity markets and commodities.
Brexit votes in Parliament could be crucial for sterling this weekHantec Markets
It is a crucial week in the Brexit process and we look at the implications for sterling. The ECB monetary policy actions have shifted the outlook for the euro, and we consider the implications of recent moves on forex, equities and commodities.
Politics, monetary policy and inflation all key for marketsRichard Perry
Markets are responding to a stream of key political developments in recent days. Theresa May trying to kick start the painfully slow Brexit negotiations, key elections in German and New Zealand and also the ongoing geopolitical tensions of the Korean Peninsula. Financial markets are trying to figure out the impact of all of this and the Federal Reserve monetary policy, whilst traders will also be looking ahead to key US inflation data this week. We look at the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
US inflation in focus with bond markets increasingly keyHantec Markets
There has been a significant shift in the outlook on bond markets and this is impacting across asset classes. How this plays out in the coming days could be key for the medium term outlook. Focus is on US inflation data this week. We consider the outlook on forex, equities and commodities markets.
Trump's tariffs driving a significant impact through marketsHantec Markets
The document provides a weekly economic and market outlook. It summarizes key economic data and events for the week, including the important US ISM non-manufacturing data on Monday. It then analyzes the outlook and risks for foreign exchange markets, equity indexes, commodities, and bonds. The author expects safe haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc to perform well due to dovish central bank policies. Equities face downside risks from slowing global growth and trade tensions. Gold is seen as continuing to rise on falling real yields and trade uncertainty.
Contagion fears flowing through markets this weekHantec Markets
The document provides a weekly outlook and analysis of key economic events and financial markets. It notes that politics are driving market moves with increased geopolitical risks. UK inflation data on Wednesday will be watched closely. Analysis is provided on major currency pairs, stock indexes, commodities and bonds. Risks are elevated and political factors like trade disputes are impacting demand concerns and contributing to volatility.
Trump/Kim, the FOMC and ECB all crucial this weekHantec Markets
After the acrimonious culmination of the G7 meeting at the weekend, financial markets are already looking forward to a hectic few days ahead. A crucial geopolitical summit between the US and North Korea, in addition to crucial central bank decisions from the FOMC and ECB. We consider the outlook on forex, equities and commodities markets.
Tax reform and Brexit negotiations key across majors Richard Perry
The weekly outlook document provides analysis of key economic indicators and events for the coming week as well as forecasts for foreign exchange markets, equity indexes, commodities, and bonds. It notes that US non-farm payrolls and average hourly earnings data on Friday will be important to watch as the impact of hurricanes on prior months' data normalizes. Progress on US tax reform and Brexit negotiations will also be closely monitored for effects on markets.
Political risk of a trade war continues to drive sentimentHantec Markets
Political risk remains key moving into what looks to be a quiet week on financial markets. How the issue of US trade tariffs continues to develop over the coming days will be key for sentiment. Will protectionist fears subside or proliferate? We look at the outlook for financial markets and impact on forex, equity indices and commodities.
Can the dollar continue to rebound as payrolls loom?Hantec Markets
The document provides Richard Perry's weekly market outlook and analysis for the week of October 1st, 2018. It discusses key economic events, including US non-farm payrolls and average hourly earnings data on Friday. It analyzes currency markets, with the euro under pressure due to concerns over Italy's budget deficit. Equity markets are also discussed, with continued strength in the US but concerns in Europe. Commodities like gold and oil are covered. Overall it provides a comprehensive weekly overview and outlook for the global financial markets.
Will US stronger US relative economic performance continue? Hantec Markets
With the US Government shutdown coming to an end, delayed US data will begin to filter through and after the dovish shift from the Fed it will be interesting to see if US economic outperformance continues to show and how this impacts on the dollar. We look at the key factors impacting on forex, equities and commodities this week.
US dollar under huge pressure but will it continue this week?Richard Perry
Aside from the incredible bull run higher seen on Wall Street, the key story for early 2018 has become the sharp weakness on the US dollar. This is impacting across financial markets as the Dollar Index has fallen to levels not seen since January 2015. But what is driving the move and what is the outlook on forex, equities and commodities markets? We take a fundamental and technical look under the bonnet.
The glass is half empty with focus on US growthHantec Markets
As the reasons to be fearful in financial markets seem to be growing. We consider the factors impacting on market outlook and what is driving forex, equities and commodities this week.
Trump's Twitter, currency manipulation and the trade dispute are keyHantec Markets
Donald Trump sending out a Twitter storm on currency manipulation and railing against the actions of the Fed have brought in an extra dimension for traders to consider this week. His threats to ratchet up the trade dispute with China also means that geopolitics remain a key factor. We consider the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
With a dearth of US data the ECB will be key this weekRichard Perry
The document provides a weekly outlook and analysis of key economic events and financial markets. It summarizes that central banks continue to influence market sentiment, with the ECB signaling a move towards tapering asset purchases and the Fed acknowledging that sluggish inflation may require a slower pace of rate hikes. Key events this week include inflation data from the Eurozone and UK and central bank decisions from the ECB and BoJ. Technical indicators are analyzed for various currency pairs, equity indexes, commodities and bonds.
The drivers of renewed euro and sterling weaknessHantec Markets
The US dollar is performing strongly once more, but is this underlying strength of the greenback or simply due to weakness elsewhere? We consider the outlook for forex, equities and commodities markets this week.
Brexit chaos continues with the can kicked further down the roadHantec Markets
The Brexit can has been kicked down the road for a couple of weeks at least, but we are not out of the woods yet. We look at the latest developments and the impact on markets. The increased market fear over an inverted US yield curve is impacting on the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
Trade negotiations and renewed dollar strength is key this weekHantec Markets
The weekly outlook report provides an overview of key economic events and indicators for the coming week, as well as analysis of currency, equity, commodity, and bond markets. Key events include Eurozone flash PMIs on Thursday and US existing home sales data on Tuesday. The report notes renewed US dollar strength and risks to growth from an escalating US-China trade dispute. It recommends using rallies in sterling and the euro as selling opportunities given political and growth risks.
The US Presidential election is growing ever nearer and the markets are becoming more considered. The markets will though be looking towards crucial economic growth data this week which will indicate how the UK is performing post Brexit and a first look at Q3 GDP in the US as traders price in a Fed hike in December.
FOMC, Advance GDP, Nonfarm Payrolls and Brexit all key this weekHantec Markets
It will be a crucial decision for the Federal Reserve this week as traders consider the prospect of a third straight rate cut. Consumer Confidence, Advance GDP and Non-farm Payrolls means that it is a jam packed week for the calendar. With Brexit uncertainty and the looming prospect of a UK general election also to impact, we are looking at a busy week for major markets and consider the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
The document provides an economic outlook and analysis for the coming week. It discusses key economic data releases including US CPI inflation figures on Friday which are expected to rise and could impact the dollar and bond yields if inflation begins rising sustainably. It also notes ongoing political uncertainty in the UK dampening sterling and analyzes various currency pairs and equity indexes, noting many are reaching key technical levels.
Payrolls affecting markets with inflation in focus this weekRichard Perry
Traders continue to react to the mixed Non-farm Payrolls report on Friday that hampers building expectation for a fourth rate hike by the Fed this year. However attention will turn back to US inflation this week, with the core CPI data, whilst Trump's trade tariffs are still on investors' minds. We consider the outlook for forex, equity indices and commodities markets.
US inflation will be crucial across forex markets this weekHantec Markets
The document provides a weekly economic and market outlook. It notes that key upcoming economic data this week includes US CPI inflation on Thursday, which will be closely watched given the Fed's focus on inflation. Recent global PMIs point to a slowing global economy. Central banks have adopted more dovish rhetoric and bond yields have fallen sharply. The document analyzes implications for currencies like the dollar and euro, as well as equities, commodities and bonds. US CPI will be important for determining the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the Fed in July.
Is a trend about to emerge for the dollar this week?Hantec Markets
With a tumultuous start to 2019 there is a lot to be concerned about for traders. However, is a trend about to emerge for the dollar? We look at the outlook for forex, commodities and equities this week.
Could the Fed drive a Santa Claus rally this week?Hantec Markets
It may be the final trading week of the year, but the key risks remain and volatility is elevated. The FOMC monetary policy will be the key risk factor for traders this week. We consider the impact on forex, equities and commodities.
Similar to ECB, US growth and the Fed chair will be key (14)
Active central banks and rising political risk key for market movesRichard Perry
Disputes over trade tariffs and increasingly active central banks are increasing the volatility on financial markets and key moves are being seen again across forex, equities and commodities. After the ECB and the Federal Reserve impacted last week, attention turns to the Bank of England this week. We consider the outlook for markets.
Yield differentials and US retail sales key this weekRichard Perry
After a few weeks of recovery on the dollar there are now a few question marks over the longevity of the rebound. Economic data and yield differentials are playing a big role again. We consider the outlook for forex, equities and commodities this week.
Reaction to Fed balance sheet reduction is keyRichard Perry
This week could be pivotal for US monetary policy. Financial markets are looking towards the FOMC meeting on Wednesday as an indicator for several key factors, however the Fed is likely to be the first central bank to start reducing the size of its balance sheet. Aside from the theoreticals, no one really knows how financial markets will react to the Fed's balance sheet reduction. We look at the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
Trump and Jackson Hole will be key for forex markets this weekRichard Perry
The political risk from Donald Trump's increasingly chaotic presidency continue to concern financial traders. Resignations and rumours of resignations have been pulling markets around recently amid concern over the impact it has on President Trump's ability to substantially achieve anything in the White House. Markets will continue to focus on this but also look towards the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium this week. We consider the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
US inflation key to a potential dollar recovery this weekRichard Perry
The dollar has jumped in the wake of Friday's Non-farm Payrolls report. However what has really changed, and is this a move that can be sustained by the dollar? We look at what the key factors to watch out for this week and the outlook for forex, equities and commodities markets with a technical analysis of the major instruments.
All eyes on the Fed to drive the dollar this weekRichard Perry
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Wednesday. Treasury yields have fallen sharply following weak jobs data and comments from Janet Yellen suggesting a June rate hike is unlikely. The Fed's dot plot projections and Yellen's press conference will be closely watched for signals about the path of rates. Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan, Swiss National Bank, and Bank of England also announce monetary policy decisions this week. Brexit fears and inflation data will also influence currency and equity markets.
US economic data is key for the dollar rally this weekRichard Perry
Janet Yellen has bolstered expectations of the next move from the Fed coming this summer with a suggestion that the next hike “would be appropriate” if the economic data continues to improve. So there will be a big focus on the US economic data this week with PCE, ISM and of course Non-farm Payrolls this week
Lecture slide titled Fraud Risk Mitigation, Webinar Lecture Delivered at the Society for West African Internal Audit Practitioners (SWAIAP) on Wednesday, November 8, 2023.
BONKMILLON Unleashes Its Bonkers Potential on Solana.pdfcoingabbar
Introducing BONKMILLON - The Most Bonkers Meme Coin Yet
Let's be real for a second – the world of meme coins can feel like a bit of a circus at times. Every other day, there's a new token promising to take you "to the moon" or offering some groundbreaking utility that'll change the game forever. But how many of them actually deliver on that hype?
2. Elemental Economics - Mineral demand.pdfNeal Brewster
After this second you should be able to: Explain the main determinants of demand for any mineral product, and their relative importance; recognise and explain how demand for any product is likely to change with economic activity; recognise and explain the roles of technology and relative prices in influencing demand; be able to explain the differences between the rates of growth of demand for different products.
Financial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptxWrito-Finance
financial assets represent claim for future benefit or cash. Financial assets are formed by establishing contracts between participants. These financial assets are used for collection of huge amounts of money for business purposes.
Two major Types: Debt Securities and Equity Securities.
Debt Securities are Also known as fixed-income securities or instruments. The type of assets is formed by establishing contracts between investor and issuer of the asset.
• The first type of Debit securities is BONDS. Bonds are issued by corporations and government (both local and national government).
• The second important type of Debit security is NOTES. Apart from similarities associated with notes and bonds, notes have shorter term maturity.
• The 3rd important type of Debit security is TRESURY BILLS. These securities have short-term ranging from three months, six months, and one year. Issuer of such securities are governments.
• Above discussed debit securities are mostly issued by governments and corporations. CERTIFICATE OF DEPOSITS CDs are issued by Banks and Financial Institutions. Risk factor associated with CDs gets reduced when issued by reputable institutions or Banks.
Following are the risk attached with debt securities: Credit risk, interest rate risk and currency risk
There are no fixed maturity dates in such securities, and asset’s value is determined by company’s performance. There are two major types of equity securities: common stock and preferred stock.
Common Stock: These are simple equity securities and bear no complexities which the preferred stock bears. Holders of such securities or instrument have the voting rights when it comes to select the company’s board of director or the business decisions to be made.
Preferred Stock: Preferred stocks are sometime referred to as hybrid securities, because it contains elements of both debit security and equity security. Preferred stock confers ownership rights to security holder that is why it is equity instrument
<a href="https://www.writofinance.com/equity-securities-features-types-risk/" >Equity securities </a> as a whole is used for capital funding for companies. Companies have multiple expenses to cover. Potential growth of company is required in competitive market. So, these securities are used for capital generation, and then uses it for company’s growth.
Concluding remarks
Both are employed in business. Businesses are often established through debit securities, then what is the need for equity securities. Companies have to cover multiple expenses and expansion of business. They can also use equity instruments for repayment of debits. So, there are multiple uses for securities. As an investor, you need tools for analysis. Investment decisions are made by carefully analyzing the market. For better analysis of the stock market, investors often employ financial analysis of companies.
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Laura Adkins-Hackett, Economist, LMIC, and Sukriti Trehan, Data Scientist, LMIC, presented their research exploring trends in the skills listed in OJPs to develop a deeper understanding of in-demand skills. This research project uses pointwise mutual information and other methods to extract more information about common skills from the relationships between skills, occupations and regions.
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...AntoniaOwensDetwiler
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Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
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In a tight labour market, job-seekers gain bargaining power and leverage it into greater job quality—at least, that’s the conventional wisdom.
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After this first you should: Understand the nature of mining; have an awareness of the industry’s boundaries, corporate structure and size; appreciation the complex motivations and objectives of the industries’ various participants; know how mineral reserves are defined and estimated, and how they evolve over time.
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ECB, US growth and the Fed chair will be key
1. Weekly Outlook
Tuesday 24th October by Richard Perry, Market Analyst
Forex and CFDs are high risk leveraged products that can result in losses greater than your initial deposit and you should
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ensure you fully understand the risks involved, seeking independent advice if necessary prior to entering into such
transactions. You should first carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite and only
invest funds you are prepared to lose entirely. For our full risk warning, please go to the end of this report.
WHEN: Thursday 26th October at 1245BST
LAST: 0.0% refi, -0.4% dep, €60bn APP
FORECAST: 0.0% refi, -0.4% dep, €30bn APP
Impact: The ECB announcement is expected to lay out
changes to monetary policy for the coming months. No
change to the main refinancing rate or the negative
deposit rate are anticipated however the current asset
purchase programme runs out in at the end of 2017
and is likely to be extended. The details of this
extension will be the volatility factor. A taper from the
current €60bn to €30bn is expected and an extension
until perhaps September 2018. If the ECB tapers less
or does not include an end date it would be dovish.
Moves on Bund yields and the euro will be watched
Key Economic Events
Date Time Country Indicator Consensus Last
Tue 24th Oct 1445BST US Flash PMIs (Manufacturing / Services) 53.6 / 55.6 53.0 / 55.1
Wed 25th Oct 0130BST Australia CPI (YoY) +2.0% +1.9%
Wed 25th Oct 0930BST UK Q3 GDP (Prelim QoQ / YoY) +0.3% / +1.4% +0.3% / +1.7%
Wed 25th Oct 1330BST US Durable Goods Orders (ex-transport) +0.5% +0.2%
Wed 25th Oct 1500BST Canada Bank of Canada monetary policy +1.0% +1.0%
Wed 25th Oct 1500BST US New Home Sales 556,000 560,000
Wed 25th Oct 1530BST US EIA crude oil inventories -5.7m
Thu 26th Oct 1245BST Eurozone ECB monetary policy (1330BST press conf) -0.4% -0.4%
Fri 27th Oct 1330BST US Q3 GDP (Advance annualised) +2.6% +3.1%
Fri 27th Oct 1500BST US Michigan Sentiment (revised) 100.9 101.1
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1N.B. Please note all times are British Summer Time BST (GMT+1), data source Reuters
Macro Commentary
Having started the year around $1.05, the euro is now over 12 big figures higher against the US dollar,
strengthening just under 12% in 2017. This has come as the prospects for the Eurozone economic activity have
improved significantly (avoiding an almost annual Greek crisis seems to have helped) with inflation expectations
also having improved. With rhetoric from the ECB having become significantly less dovish in recent months markets
have been speculating over whether the Governing Council would start to significantly step away from its ultra loose
monetary policy. The ECB policy normalisation would come in a series of steps: End the Asset Purchase
Programme (APP, i.e. quantitative easing), end the negative rates policy (with the deposit rate currently at -0.4%),
raise the main refinancing rate from zero and then begin to reduce the balance sheet. We are edging closer to step
one of normalisation. The current APP of €60bn per month ends at the end of this year, however, is expected to be
extended. At the ECB meeting this week, markets are expected to hear that this extension will be tapered to €30bn
per month. How long for is the key. The middle of 2018 would be considered hawkish, with September being a
consensus (€270bn over 9 months). The euro be pressured if the ECB cuts the APP by less than expected to
€40bn per month and does not specify an end date. With the dovish Mario Draghi at the helm this is a risk.
Must Watch for: ECB monetary policy
German Bund Yield
The German 2 year Shatz is in the process of turning around,
but the -0.57 2017 high is a significant barrier
2. Weekly Outlook
Tuesday 24th October by Richard Perry, Market Analyst
Foreign Exchange
Moves on the euro and the dollar will be key in forex this week. The ECB monetary policy meeting will be key
for the euro and consensus expects the APP to be cut to €30bn ending in September 2018. However the euro
is selling off in front of the meeting suggesting the market is possibly preparing for a disappointment. Would this
mean a mild strengthening on hitting consensus? The key support for EUR/USD remains in place at $1.1660
but would come under pressure on a dovish ECB. $1.1880 has become a near term barrier but a hawkish lean
from the ECB would likely send the euro above $1.2000 again with $1.2092 being the high dating back to
January 2015. The US dollar remains a key currency to watch. Focus is on the progress of Trump’s tax plans
which has given the dollar a boost moving into this week. However, also look for the identity of the next Fed
chair to be a market mover. Trump is due to announce his decision for the next Fed chair before he goes on his
11 day trip to Asia on 3rd November. The betting suggests that Jerome Powell (centrist) is still the front runner,
with John Taylor (leans slightly hawkish) another possibility. The UK government stance on Brexit and the
amount of the divorce bill is also key for sterling. This is the gateway for the start of trade negotiations,
seemingly key for avoiding a unwarranted “no deal” and a softer form of Brexit. Despite the dollar strength, it
still seems that Brexit has the power to be the real market mover of Cable.
WATCH FOR: The ECB being key for EUR, first reading of GDP for UK and US impacting GBP and USD
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2
FX Outlook
USD/JPY
Watch for: The move to three month highs re-
opens key range resistance at 114.50
Outlook: The May/July highs around 114.50
have provided the ceiling for a trading range
above 107.50 in the past seven months. A near
term breakout above 113.45 has subsequently
re-opened the 114.50 range highs which could
be tested if dollar strength continues this week.
Near term momentum is positioned positively for
the test, but could the bulls drive a decisive
breakout? It would take significant effort but
there is upside potential on the RSI and
Stochastics. The subsequent resistance at
115.60 would then need to be negotiated. The
higher lows around 111.50 are now an
increasingly important medium term floor too.
EUR/USD
Watch for: The support at $1.1660 remains key
in front of the ECB
Outlook: The market has been increasingly
running a consolidation in the past few weeks as
traders look ahead to the ECB on Thursday and
key US factors such as Trump’s tax reform and
the announcement of the next Fed chair.
Technically there is the prospect that a dovish
ECB could drive a move below $1.1660 that
would complete a 12 week head and shoulders
top pattern. This would then open for over 400
pips of further downside. The alternative is a
hawkish ECB which would rally the euro sharply
and drive EUR/USD above $1.2000 again.
Momentum indicators have a slight negative bias
but little to suggest decisive market positioning.
3. Weekly Outlook
Tuesday 24th October by Richard Perry, Market Analyst
Equity Markets
US markets are storming higher. Corrections are being bought into and the move is accelerating now. Donald
Trump is proposing cutting corporation tax from 35% to “no more than 20%” and this would be a real boon for
corporate America. This is clearly a key driving factor as earnings season has been relatively underwhelming so
far. FactSet expected earnings for Q3 to ultimately improve from 2.8% from before the announcements began
to 6% by the end of reporting season. However, the numbers last week have dragged the blended earnings
(reported and non reported expectations) back to just +1.7%. Tax reform is clearly a big driver of the market
and should therefore be watched closely for progress in the coming weeks. All time high ground on the Dow
Jones Industrial Average was certainly helped by the abnormally large impact of a high priced IBM (due to the
intricacies of calculating the Dow), whilst the move to all-time highs on the S&P 500 have been equally strong
but more broad based. This is reflected in the fact that European markets are still stalling and seem unable to
generate bullish traction in the last few weeks. The technical signals are increasingly flash warning signals on
the DAX which is pushing through the psychological 13,000 level like a bicycle riding through treacle. Despite
this though the market is holding above 12,900 support and whilst this remains the case the bulls will be
reasonably well positioned still. The FTSE 100 has stumbled in the past couple of weeks with 7565 and is
failing to test the 7599 all time high. Brexit progress is a driver of sterling and the negative correlation play
between FTSE 100 and sterling remains an issue.
WATCH FOR: Progress on Trump Tax reform to drive Wall Street, earnings season also key
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3
DAX Xetra
Watch for: A breakout of the consolidation
between 12,910/13,095
Outlook: The European markets have run
themselves to a standstill, and the DAX is no
different. The market has now spent the past few
weeks consolidating sideways in a 185 tick band
around 13,000. The concern is that momentum
indicators are looking increasingly corrective and
the prospect of a near term decline is growing.
The bulls need to breakout above last week’s
high of 13,095 to re-energize their push into
further all-time highs. The support at 12,900 is
preventing a top pattern formation. The ECB will
be key for the market moves.
FTSE 100
Watch for: The bulls have lost momentum and
the market is increasingly consolidating.
Outlook: Consolidation continues on FTSE 100
as an 80 tick trading band of the past two weeks
takes hold. This is coming as the momentum
indicators of the really tail off with the MACD
lines crossing lower and Stochastics also giving
a corrective signal. The bulls will though still be
relatively content above the 7450 support and if
support continues to build then a retest of the all-
time high at 7599 cannot be ruled out. It is
notable that the bulls have been unable to
sustain traction in a rally for several months now
and the shaping corrective technicals do not
bode especially well once more. Resistance at
7565.
Index Outlook
4. Weekly Outlook
Tuesday 24th October by Richard Perry, Market Analyst
Other Assets: Commodities & Bonds
The rejuvenated strength of the dollar is a big drag on gold. Coming with the improved prospects of Trump’s tax
reform, Treasury yields are climbing and this is negative for precious metals. This is pulling gold back towards
the early October low of $1260 and could mean further downside and means a test of the band $1240/$1260
could be seen. This move has also meant that the previous technical buy signals have been aborted however
the bulls have in their favour the fact that the gold market has been posting higher key lows with a trend of lows
coming in around $1250 this week. Oil remains supported and the market is looking at the reduction in Iraqi
exports as a positive factor. Oil exports from southern Iraq have fallen by 110,000 per day adding to the supply
issues in Northern Iraq. This is helping to underpin Brent Crude above $55.
Treasury yields have been pushing higher once more in the wake of the Senate passing the budget which
improves the prospects for Trump’s tax reform. However there yield curve continues to flatten on a longer term
basis. The identity of the next Fed chair could have an impact on this though. The shorter end of the curve
would be further boosted (thus flattening the curve) in the event of a more hawkish John Taylor becoming Fed
chair, whilst Jerome Taylor is more Yellen-esque and this would pull back the shorter end. The longer end
continues to be driven by inflation/growth expectations and therefore GDP on Friday will be watched.
WATCH FOR: US GDP impacting on yields and across commodities. Tax reform progress is also key.
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4
Gold
Watch for: A test of the $250/$1260 support
could be seen this week if selling pressure grows
Outlook: The long term trend of higher lows that
has supported gold throughout 2017 comes in
around $1250 this week. There is a band of
support between $1250/$1260 which is
subsequently taking on increased importance for
the medium term basis. Interestingly also the
144 day moving average which has historically
been a strong gauge for gold comes in at $1270
too. Near term momentum remains corrective
and the sellers are selling into strength under the
long term pivot $1300/$1310 but the market is
increasingly approaching a key crossroads.
Markets Outlook
Brent Crude oil
Watch for: Continue to buy into weakness
above $54.70
Outlook: Brent Crude continues to be supported
above the key $54.70 breakout and corrections
are being bought into. The next move for the
bulls will be to generate lasting support above
$57.45 with the flanked support of the four
month uptrend. Technical momentum indicators
remain supportive with the RSI consistently
finding lows around 50 and the MACD lines
above neutral. This all points towards a
continuation of buying into weakness. The bulls
will be eyeing the resistance at $58.55 with a
push above opening the key multi-month high at
$59.50.
5. Weekly Outlook
Tuesday 24th October by Richard Perry, Market Analyst
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5
Risk Warning for Financial Promotions
This report is issued by Hantec Markets Limited, who is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority
(FCA) in the UK, No. 502635. The report is prepared and distributed for information purposes only.
Trading in Foreign Exchange (FX), Bullion and Contracts for Differences (CFDs) is not be suitable for all investors due to
the high risk nature of these products. Forex, Bullion and CFDs are leveraged products that can result in losses greater
than your initial deposit. The value of an FX, Bullion or CFD position may be affected by a variety of factors, including but
not limited to, price volatility, market volume, foreign exchange rates and liquidity. You may lose your entire initial stake
and you may be required to make additional payments. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved, seeking
independent advice if necessary prior to entering into such transactions. Before deciding to enter into FX, Bullion and/or
CFD trading, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should
only invest in FX, Bullion and/or CFD trading with funds you are prepared to lose entirely. Therefore, only your excess
funds should be placed at risk and anyone who does not have such excess funds should completely refrain from engaging
in FX and/or CFD trading. Do not rely on past performance figures. If you are in any doubt, please seek further
independent advice.
This report does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the individual financial
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