Early outcomes from the (Study of Gambling in Victoria) longitudinal study, 2nd wave of results
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Mr Paul Marden and Ms Rosa Billi Manager and Senior Project Officer, Office of Gaming and Racing Research Presentation given at: The New Game: Emerging technology and responsible gambling This forum was hosted by the Victorian Government's Office of Gaming and Racing on 23 May 2011, as part of Responsible Gambling Awareness Week.
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Early outcomes from the (Study of Gambling in Victoria) longitudinal study, 2nd wave of results
- 1. Mr Paul Marden and Ms Rosa Billi Office of Gaming and Racing Research
- 2. Victorian Longitudinal Study -overview and early outcomes Rosa Billi and Paul Marden Responsible Gambling Awareness Week Melbourne (CD/11/170804) 23 May 2011
- 15. Findings-Wave Two Participation in W2 based on the PGSI status in W1 PGSI Risk segment Agreed to participation Wave 1 (n) Participated Wave 2 (n) Participation Rate % Non-gamblers 1493 1024 69% Non-problem 5029 3569 71% Low risk 423 274 65% Moderate risk 150 96 64% Problem gamblers 53 40 75% Totals 7148 5003 70%
- 19. Findings-Wave Two Gamblers within PGSI segments who gamble alone, with one other person or in groups
- 21. Findings-Wave Two K10 psychological distress scale
- 23. Findings-Wave Two Self reported smoking in past twelve months
- 27. Findings Transitions W1-W2 Wave Two Completed 2009 NG NPG LR MR PG TOTAL Shifted W1 to W2 NG 1024 464 526 24 9 1 560 Wave One NPG 3569 240 3131 169 24 5 438 LR 274 9 144 81 38 2 193 MR 96 3 20 26 39 8 57 PG 40 0 2 0 9 29 11 Total 5003 716 3823 300 119 45 1259
Editor's Notes
- 7148 consented to further research 5003 completed surveys Ethics approval to approach soft refusals in wave one- there were 3339 soft refusals and 1145 completed w3 surveys. Soft refusals are people who indicated matters such as: they had to leave the telephone conversation (to look after pets, children) or that they were busy (in general). They did not give an outright NO nor hung up the phone. 320 completed w3 surveys from those who agreed to participate in wave one, but were not able to be contacted in wave two. Re Wave Four: 20% attrition (note for Paul) Wave four sample may approximate therefore 4400 to 4500.
- Gambler defined as anyone who gambled once in the past year, including lotto Broad definition The wave one report is a stand-alone report on gambling in Victoria and had the largest sample ever in Victoria.
- Victoria used a Queensland scoring version of the PGSI which has been used widely throughout Australia since 2001. The original answers to the nine PGSI questions ae : Never = 0; Sometimes = 1; most of the time = 2; Almost always = 3. The modified categories used in the epi study and in the longitudinal study are: Never = 0; Rarely = 1; Sometimes = 1; Often = 2; and Always = 3. In a discussion about the impact of the scoring change the Productivity Commission in its 2010 report ( Appendix D) stated that only a small percentage effect on PG estimate and a slightly effect (5%) on the MR estimate would result. In other words, it was fairly inconsequential to findings.
- Paul: Why use CATI??? Still used in major surveys ( e.g. Department of Health). Mixed methods are increasingly popular but the ‘jury is out’ n how successfully these can be integrated to gain accurate population-based estimates.
- External events such as the economic stimulus packaged of $12.2 billion to assist households designed to stimulate consumption affects results in any one year. Natural disasters such as the bushfires were recognised as having an effect on overall results. In wave three the focus shifted to recognising that the timing of the surveys (in part) coincided with the racing season. Further other gambling matters such as jackpots and first wins were added as experts recognised that they are of interest given the objectives of the longitudinal study.
- Emphasis on this aspect of the project is on problem gamblers – those who moved into that category have moved out to that category or whop appear to have remained in that category. CATI methodology has serious limitations when trying to understand people’s journeys. In a longitudinal study, understanding the context of individual’s lives is important and the best method to uncovering those dynamics is via sensitively conducted interviews.
- Refreshed -phone calls -email -newsletter No incentives used until wave three
- 70% participation rate
- 60% female 40 % male
- This includes all people in wave two who gambled
- Interesting to note the different preferences according to risk status
- Graph shows preferences for gambling: Alone With one other In group Interesting to see that Most problem gamblers 77.8% prefer to gamble alone
- Read these out then refer to graph on next slide
- The Kessler 10 is a short measurement scale containing ten questions which estimates general psychological distress. Participants in both waves of the study were asked these questions. In Wave Two, only 40 per cent of problem gamblers score as likely to be well on the Kessler 10 compared to 92.4 per cent of non-problem gamblers.
- Read this slide then refer to graph on next page
- This graph shows self reported smoking in the past twelve months. Very high rate of smoking in problem gambling population
- As part of the Wave Two study, participants were asked questions about life events.
- This table shows the transition (i.e. the shift from risk status, or pgsi category from wave one to wave two) Yellow highlights- number who did not shift ( i.e 29 problem gamblers in wave one remained problem gamblers in wave two) NG- NPG- score of Zero Most stable groups were PG (72.5%) did not shift andNPG (87.8%) did not shift Biggest shift into PG was from MR
- Incidence: cohort was weighted for demographics to get 12 month rate. So approximately half of our problem gamblers were not rated problem gamblers 12 months previously. A prevalence rate for wave two is not given as it is not a population-based sample any longer (therefore, not really representative of the Victorian adult population). NODS CliP2 – anyone who had ‘EVER’ gambled –epi—five questions then full NODS Different definitions of problem gambling; however, used to give a general idea. The results show that one third of new problem gamblers between wave one and two had never had a previous history of problem gambling while two thirds did.
- Also associated is those who stated that they had troubles at their work and increasingly argued with someone close to them
- Again we are getting on the surface conflicting results. For example, a new partner was associated with people moving into the problem gambling category. This study of movements between waves one and two indicate that the same factors can explain contrary movements. We need to: explore with qualitative work and to extend the study as long as possible to establish if these are anomalies or behaviour this way over time. Substance abuse like alcohol and smoking may have a substitution effect fore some who could develop problem gambling and /or for those who may move out of that state. That is, they may substitute gambling for more substance abuse.