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Diskusi Properti Indonesia 6/04/20
Agen Properti : Sekarang & Sesudah Corona
Dr. Joni Phangestu MM.
04 - 2020
DAMPAK COVID 19 DAN PEMULIHANNYA;
MENJAGA OPTIMISME DI TENGAH WABAH COVID-19
KEY ISSUES :
Kapan Pandemi berakhir ?
Seberapa besar dampak yang diakibatkan ?
SEJAUH MANA IMPACT COVID-19 TERHADAP EKONOMI KITA?
Source : worldbank Source : the Economist, 2020
Koreksi forecast pertumbuhan GDP dunia
Grafik pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia
KRISIS 1: 1991
KRISIS 2: 1998
KRISIS 3: 2008
Walau melambat, kegiatan
ekonomi masih berjalan
Bagaimana Dengan Properti Indonesia ?
2093
1519
1135 1064 1189 1287 1206
1602
2059
1642
1874
2076
1766
2309
2678
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Anggota REI Total Kredit Property KPR & KPA
KRISIS 2: 1998
KRISIS 3: 2008
Pertumbuhan kredit properti Indonesia dan Jumlah anggota REI Indonesia Source : diolah dari data BI & REI
SEPUTAR UPAYA MENANGGULANGI WABAH COVID-19
Bantuan alkes dari China
TREND PENYEBARAN COVID-19
Source : Mckinsey, Kata Kita. 2020
Bantuan Covid-19
Paket 1 : Rp. 158,2 T
*Paket 2 : Rp. 405,1 T
Total : Rp. 563,3 T
PAKET BANTUAN PEMERINTAH UNTUK MENGATASI DAMPAK COVID-19
• Presiden Jokowi menetapkan PEMBATASAN SOSIAL SKALA BESAR (PSSB) untuk mengatasi pandemi corona,
dan program bantuan sosial kepada masyarakat serta kepada pelaku usaha ekonomi menengah bawah.
• Program ini memperhatikan faktor ekonomi dan sosial, dengan demikian diharapkan perekonomian masih
tetap bisa berjalan namun tetap mengurangi dampak negatifnya.
•Rp 75 T: bidang kesehatan
•Rp 110 T: jaring pengaman sosial
•Rp 70,1T: insentif perpajakan & stimulus KUR
•Rp 150 T: program pemulihan ekonomi nasional
*
Cepat
lama
EfektifTidak Efektif
PROGRAM PEMERINTAH
PEMULIHAN
DARI WABAH
50% 22%
2–3 bln ke depan 21% 18%
4-6 bln ke depan
20% 33%
6-12 bln ke depan
9% 27%
>12 bln ke depan
SCENARIO ANALYSIS : DAMPAK DAN PEMULIHAN AKIBAT COVID-19
Source : Nielsen, 2020
Time
Indonesia
ASIA
Persentasi keyakinan Masyarakat dan Skenario Kapan Wabah
Akan Berakhir & Dampaknya
1. Quick recovery 2. Hurt but survive
3. Bleeding
4. Resesi
BAGAIMANA KONDISI INDUSTRI DAN PERILAKU
KONSUMEN DI TENGAH WABAH COVID-19
KEY ISSUE
Apakah masih ada yang bisa membeli rumah ?
Bagaimana perilaku konsumen saat ini ?
1. PROACTIVE
HEALTH-
MINDED
BUYING
2. REACTIVE
HEALTH
MANAGEMENT
3. PANTRY
PREPARATION
4. CONTINUED
LIVING
PREPARATION
5. RESTRICTED
LIVING
6. LIVING A
NEW NORMAL
Minimal localized cases
of C-19 generally linked
to an arrival from
another infected country
Prioritize products
essential to virus
containment, health
and public safety. E.g.
face masks
Pantry stockpiling of
shelf-stable foods and a
broader assortment of
health-safety products;
spike in store visits;
growing basket sizes.
Increased online
shopping, a decline in
store visits, rising out-of-
stocks, strains on the
supply chain.
People return to daily
routines (work, school,
etc.) but operate with a
renewed cautiousness
about health.
Permanent shifts in
supply chain, the use
of e-commerce and
hygiene practices.
Severely restricted
shopping trips, online
fulfilment is limited,
price concerns rise as
limited stock availability
impacts pricing in some
cases.
Localized COVID-19
emergency actions.
Percentage of people
diagnosed continues to
increase. Mass cases of
COVID-19. Communities
ordered into lockdown.
First local transmission
with no link to other
location + first COVID-
19 related death/s.
COVID-19 quarantines
lift beyond
region/country’s most-
affected hotspots and
life starts to return to
normal.
Mass cases of COVID-19.
Communities ordered into
lockdown.
Multiple cases of local
transmission and
multiple deaths linked to
COVID-19.
Interest rises in
products that support
overall maintenance
of health and
wellness.
CUSTOMER BEHAVIOR SHIFTING CONCERN WITH COVID-19
Source : Nielsen, 2020
MULTIPLE
CHANNELS
UPDATE BERITA MENGENAI COVID-19 : FREKWENSI & MEDIA YANG DIGUNAKAN
BERKALI-KALI
Source : Nielsen, 2020
Untuk mendapatkan engagement dgn konsumen, harus menggunakan omnichanel
dan sering update content
ISU & KEGIATAN YANG DILAKUKAN SELAMA COVID-19
Isu-isu di atas bisa diangkat untuk membangun komunikasi dengan konsumen
Kegiatan2 yang banyak dilakukan di rumah
Produk-produk yang banyak dibeli
Vitamin & obat Bumbu masak Home care sanitizer masker Hidup sehat
Source : Nielsen, 2020
Source : Dcode, 2020
INDUSTRI TERDAMPAK COVID-19 : YANG MENANG & YANG KALAH
WE ARE HERE
THE NEW NORMAL
Work from home Health Practice
Green home E-grocery Home exercise
E-learning E-doctor
delivery
KERJA DI RUMAH DAN GAYA HIDUP SEHAT AKAN MENGUBAH PERILAKU KONSUMEN DAN MEMPENGARUHI
PRODUK DAN SERVICE YG DITAWARKAN
APA YANG HARUS DILAKUKAN OLEH PELAKU INDUSTRI
DI TENGAH WABAH COVID-19 DAN PSOT COVID-19
APA YANG HARUS DILAKUKAN ?
Source : Mckinsey, 2020
• Jaga Cashflow (survival)
• Efisiensi maksimal/Cut Cost
APA YANG HARUS DILAKUKAN ?
MARKETING OPERATION PEOPLE
STRATEGIC
LEVEL
• Komunikasi dgn konsumen
tetap terjalin (membangun
trust dan empati)
• Target konsumen di sektor
yang masih tumbuh / pegang
cash
• Menjaga Motivasi kerja
karyawan tetap menyala
• Meningkatkan Aliansi
FOKUS SAAT INI
FOKUS KE DEPAN
• Brand awareness building
• Membuat scenario marketing
plan baru
• Memperbaiki/ meningkatkan
data base konsumen
• Mempersiapkan SDM untuk
post COVID-19 (training)
• Adaptasi Kegiatan berbasis
digital (OFF-
ON/Omnichannel)
• Reorientasi Bisnis Model
• Design gaya kerja jarak
jauh/work from home
Dr. Joni Phangestu
08161352939

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Diskusi property 0420

  • 1. Diskusi Properti Indonesia 6/04/20 Agen Properti : Sekarang & Sesudah Corona Dr. Joni Phangestu MM. 04 - 2020
  • 2. DAMPAK COVID 19 DAN PEMULIHANNYA; MENJAGA OPTIMISME DI TENGAH WABAH COVID-19 KEY ISSUES : Kapan Pandemi berakhir ? Seberapa besar dampak yang diakibatkan ?
  • 3. SEJAUH MANA IMPACT COVID-19 TERHADAP EKONOMI KITA? Source : worldbank Source : the Economist, 2020 Koreksi forecast pertumbuhan GDP dunia Grafik pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia KRISIS 1: 1991 KRISIS 2: 1998 KRISIS 3: 2008 Walau melambat, kegiatan ekonomi masih berjalan
  • 4. Bagaimana Dengan Properti Indonesia ? 2093 1519 1135 1064 1189 1287 1206 1602 2059 1642 1874 2076 1766 2309 2678 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Anggota REI Total Kredit Property KPR & KPA KRISIS 2: 1998 KRISIS 3: 2008 Pertumbuhan kredit properti Indonesia dan Jumlah anggota REI Indonesia Source : diolah dari data BI & REI
  • 5. SEPUTAR UPAYA MENANGGULANGI WABAH COVID-19 Bantuan alkes dari China
  • 6. TREND PENYEBARAN COVID-19 Source : Mckinsey, Kata Kita. 2020
  • 7. Bantuan Covid-19 Paket 1 : Rp. 158,2 T *Paket 2 : Rp. 405,1 T Total : Rp. 563,3 T PAKET BANTUAN PEMERINTAH UNTUK MENGATASI DAMPAK COVID-19 • Presiden Jokowi menetapkan PEMBATASAN SOSIAL SKALA BESAR (PSSB) untuk mengatasi pandemi corona, dan program bantuan sosial kepada masyarakat serta kepada pelaku usaha ekonomi menengah bawah. • Program ini memperhatikan faktor ekonomi dan sosial, dengan demikian diharapkan perekonomian masih tetap bisa berjalan namun tetap mengurangi dampak negatifnya. •Rp 75 T: bidang kesehatan •Rp 110 T: jaring pengaman sosial •Rp 70,1T: insentif perpajakan & stimulus KUR •Rp 150 T: program pemulihan ekonomi nasional *
  • 8. Cepat lama EfektifTidak Efektif PROGRAM PEMERINTAH PEMULIHAN DARI WABAH 50% 22% 2–3 bln ke depan 21% 18% 4-6 bln ke depan 20% 33% 6-12 bln ke depan 9% 27% >12 bln ke depan SCENARIO ANALYSIS : DAMPAK DAN PEMULIHAN AKIBAT COVID-19 Source : Nielsen, 2020 Time Indonesia ASIA Persentasi keyakinan Masyarakat dan Skenario Kapan Wabah Akan Berakhir & Dampaknya 1. Quick recovery 2. Hurt but survive 3. Bleeding 4. Resesi
  • 9. BAGAIMANA KONDISI INDUSTRI DAN PERILAKU KONSUMEN DI TENGAH WABAH COVID-19 KEY ISSUE Apakah masih ada yang bisa membeli rumah ? Bagaimana perilaku konsumen saat ini ?
  • 10. 1. PROACTIVE HEALTH- MINDED BUYING 2. REACTIVE HEALTH MANAGEMENT 3. PANTRY PREPARATION 4. CONTINUED LIVING PREPARATION 5. RESTRICTED LIVING 6. LIVING A NEW NORMAL Minimal localized cases of C-19 generally linked to an arrival from another infected country Prioritize products essential to virus containment, health and public safety. E.g. face masks Pantry stockpiling of shelf-stable foods and a broader assortment of health-safety products; spike in store visits; growing basket sizes. Increased online shopping, a decline in store visits, rising out-of- stocks, strains on the supply chain. People return to daily routines (work, school, etc.) but operate with a renewed cautiousness about health. Permanent shifts in supply chain, the use of e-commerce and hygiene practices. Severely restricted shopping trips, online fulfilment is limited, price concerns rise as limited stock availability impacts pricing in some cases. Localized COVID-19 emergency actions. Percentage of people diagnosed continues to increase. Mass cases of COVID-19. Communities ordered into lockdown. First local transmission with no link to other location + first COVID- 19 related death/s. COVID-19 quarantines lift beyond region/country’s most- affected hotspots and life starts to return to normal. Mass cases of COVID-19. Communities ordered into lockdown. Multiple cases of local transmission and multiple deaths linked to COVID-19. Interest rises in products that support overall maintenance of health and wellness. CUSTOMER BEHAVIOR SHIFTING CONCERN WITH COVID-19 Source : Nielsen, 2020
  • 11. MULTIPLE CHANNELS UPDATE BERITA MENGENAI COVID-19 : FREKWENSI & MEDIA YANG DIGUNAKAN BERKALI-KALI Source : Nielsen, 2020 Untuk mendapatkan engagement dgn konsumen, harus menggunakan omnichanel dan sering update content
  • 12. ISU & KEGIATAN YANG DILAKUKAN SELAMA COVID-19 Isu-isu di atas bisa diangkat untuk membangun komunikasi dengan konsumen Kegiatan2 yang banyak dilakukan di rumah Produk-produk yang banyak dibeli Vitamin & obat Bumbu masak Home care sanitizer masker Hidup sehat Source : Nielsen, 2020
  • 13. Source : Dcode, 2020 INDUSTRI TERDAMPAK COVID-19 : YANG MENANG & YANG KALAH WE ARE HERE
  • 14. THE NEW NORMAL Work from home Health Practice Green home E-grocery Home exercise E-learning E-doctor delivery KERJA DI RUMAH DAN GAYA HIDUP SEHAT AKAN MENGUBAH PERILAKU KONSUMEN DAN MEMPENGARUHI PRODUK DAN SERVICE YG DITAWARKAN
  • 15. APA YANG HARUS DILAKUKAN OLEH PELAKU INDUSTRI DI TENGAH WABAH COVID-19 DAN PSOT COVID-19
  • 16. APA YANG HARUS DILAKUKAN ? Source : Mckinsey, 2020
  • 17. • Jaga Cashflow (survival) • Efisiensi maksimal/Cut Cost APA YANG HARUS DILAKUKAN ? MARKETING OPERATION PEOPLE STRATEGIC LEVEL • Komunikasi dgn konsumen tetap terjalin (membangun trust dan empati) • Target konsumen di sektor yang masih tumbuh / pegang cash • Menjaga Motivasi kerja karyawan tetap menyala • Meningkatkan Aliansi FOKUS SAAT INI FOKUS KE DEPAN • Brand awareness building • Membuat scenario marketing plan baru • Memperbaiki/ meningkatkan data base konsumen • Mempersiapkan SDM untuk post COVID-19 (training) • Adaptasi Kegiatan berbasis digital (OFF- ON/Omnichannel) • Reorientasi Bisnis Model • Design gaya kerja jarak jauh/work from home