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FEATURE
Forces of change
The future of health
The Deloitte Center for Health Solutions
2
Executive summary
Twenty years from now, cancer and diabetes
could join polio as defeated diseases. We expect
prevention and early diagnoses will be central to
the future of health. The onset of disease, in some
cases, could be delayed or eliminated altogether.
Sophisticated tests and tools could mean most diag-
noses (and care) take place at home.
Today, the US health care system is a collec-
tion of disconnected components (health plans,
hospital systems, pharmaceutical companies,
medical device manufacturers). By 2040, we expect
the consumer will be at the center of the health
model. Interoperable, always-on data will promote
closer collaboration among industry stakeholders,
and new combinations of services will be offered
by incumbents and new entrants (disruptors).
Interventions and treatments are likely to be more
precise, less complex, less invasive, and cheaper.
Health will be defined holistically as an overall
state of well-being encompassing mental, social,
emotional, physical, and spiritual health. Not only
will consumers have access to detailed information
about their own health, they will own their health
data and play a central role in making decisions
about their health and well-being.
What is the future of health?
The future of health that we envision is only
about 20 years off, but health in 2040 will be a world
apart from what we have now. Based on emerging
technology, we can be reasonably certain that digital
transformation—enabled by radically interoperable
data, artificial intelligence (AI), and open, secure
platforms—will drive much of this change. Unlike
today, we believe care will be organized around the
consumer, rather than around the institutions that
drive our existing health care system.
By 2040 (and perhaps beginning significantly
before), streams of health data—together with data
from a variety of other relevant sources—will merge
to create a multifaceted and highly personalized
picture of every consumer’s well-being. Today, wear-
able devices that track our steps,
sleep patterns, and even heart rate
have been integrated into our lives
in ways we couldn’t have imagined
just a few years ago. We expect this
trend to accelerate. The next generation of sensors,
for example, will move us from wearable devices to
invisible, always-on sensors that are embedded in
the devices that surround us.
Many medtech companies are already beginning
to incorporate always-on biosensors and software
into devices that can generate, gather, and share
data. Advanced cognitive technologies could be
developed to analyze a significantly large set of
parameters and create personalized insights into
a consumer’s health. The availability of data and
personalized AI can enable precision well-being
and real-time microinterventions that allow
us to get ahead of sickness and far ahead of
catastrophic disease.
Consumers—armed with this highly detailed
personal information about their own health—will
likely demand that their health information be
portable. Consumers have grown accustomed to
transformations that have occurred in other sectors,
The future of health will likely be driven by digital transformation enabled by
radically interoperable data and open, secure platforms. Health is likely to
revolve around sustaining well-being rather than responding to illness.
Health in 2040 will be a world apart
from what we have now.
Forces of change: The future of health
2
3
such as e-commerce and mobility. These consumers
will demand that health follow the same path and
become an integrated part of their lives—and they’ll
vote with their feet and their wallets.
EXPONENTIAL CHANGE AND
INNOVATION CYCLES
While we don’t know with precision how the
future will play out, we can look at signals in the
market today—and the forces of change in other
industries—to start to paint a picture of the future
of health. In virtually every industry, fundamental
shifts in innovation tend to occur in seven-year
cycles (figure 1). Health is no different. By 2040,
three of these cycles will have passed—each building
off of the other. To determine where health might
FIGURE 1
Exponential change will accelerate the pace of disruption
Note: All dollar amounts are given in US dollars.
Source: Deloitte analysis.
Deloitte Insights | deloitte.com/insights
Technological development
Pace
of
innovation
Trends
underlying
exponential
growth
Moore’s law: The power of chips,
bandwidth, and computers doubles
approximately every 18 months.
Mobile phones:
The number of mobile phones
worldwide doubled in the the last
48 months
DNA sequencing:
What once cost $1 billion and took
13 years to accomplish now costs
less than $100
and can be done in less than
1 hour
Data storage:
From $569 per GB to
<$0.01
The human factor
Technology development feeds and
enables various trends in society:
Social connection
Well-being
Decentralization
DIY
Nanotechnology
Present Understood... 7 years Directional... 14 years
Perception is linear
Reality is exponential
In health care, regulatory bodies
(e.g., FDA) are working to keep up
with the pace of change spearheaded
by innovative entrants
In traditional models of change,
tech leads the charge followed by
business models, and then regulation
Unknown... 21 years
Quantum computing
Robotics
Biomedical engineering
Articial intelligence
Cost of data storage
Connectivity
Augmented reality
3D printing
Forces of change: The future of health
3
4
be headed, we should look back three innovation
cycles and consider where exponential innovation
has taken us. Figure 2 shares several examples.
FIGURE 2
Examples of exponential innovation
Hybrid cars
In 1997—a little more than three
innovation cycles ago—the first hybrid car
was made available to the public. We now
have fully electric cars and routinely see
autonomous vehicles being tested on the
roads in many of our cities.1
Robots in the operating room
In 1998, the first surgery was performed
using robotic assistance.2
Today, robotic
surgery is the standard of care for
many procedures.
Digital music
In 1999, the first complete music album
by a major artist was made available to
download over the Internet in advance of
its physical release.3
Today, it is hard to
remember buying music on physical media.
Genomics
In 2000, the first rough draft of a human
genome was announced.4
Today, millions
of people have traced their ancestry
through mail-order DNA test kits and
are beginning to look at their genetics to
identify potential health risks.
Smartphones
Prior to 2007, smartphones did not exist
in the market. There are now 2.6 billion
smartphones around the globe, and by
2020, that number is expected to grow to
6.1 billion, or nine out of 10 people.5
Souce: Deloitte analysis.
Why does the future
of health matter?
Nothing is more important than our health. All
of us interact with the health care system to varying
degrees, and we will continue to interact with it
throughout our lives. The cost of health care affects
individuals, families, and employers as well as
local, state, and federal budgets. In 2017, US health
care spending topped US$3.5 trillion (17.9 percent
of the gross domestic product). That translates to
US$10,739 for every person in the country.6
An estimated 133 million Americans have at
least one chronic disease (such as heart disease,
asthma, cancer, and diabetes), and the number of
people who have a chronic illness has been rising
steadily for years.7
Hospital care now makes up
about one-third of all health care spending in the
United States, and chronic illnesses are tied to more
than 80 percent of hospital admissions.8
While
chronic diseases are typically incurable, they can
often be prevented or managed.
Health care consumers typically interact with
the health system only when they are sick or injured.
But the future of health will be focused on well-
being and prevention rather than treatment. We
predict that more health spend will be devoted to
sustaining well-being and preventing illness by
2040, while less will be tied to assessing conditions
and treating illness. Greater emphasis on well-being
and identifying health risks earlier will result in
fewer and less severe diseases, which will reduce
health care spending, allowing the reinvestment
of this well-being dividend to expand the benefits
to the broad population. Along with helping to
improve the well-being of individuals, health care
stakeholders will also work to improve population
health. Interoperable data sets will be used to drive
microinterventions that help keep people healthy
(figure 3).
In response to this shifting health landscape,
traditional jobs we know today will undergo change.
Health will be monitored continuously so that
risks can be identified early. Rather than assessing
patients and treating them, the primary focus will
Forces of change: The future of health
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5
be on sustaining well-being by providing consumers
ongoing advice and support.
We don’t expect disease to have been eliminated
entirely by 2040, but the use of actionable health
insights—driven by interoperable data and smart
AI—could help identify illness early, enable proac-
tive intervention, and improve the understanding
of disease progression. This can allow us to avoid
many of the catastrophic expenses we have today.
Technology might also help break down barriers
such as cost and geography that can limit access to
health care providers and specialists.
Health systems, health plans, and life sciences
companies have begun to shift some of their focus
to wellness, but the overall system remains focused
on sick care.
INTEROPERABLE DATA WILL
EMPOWER CONSUMERS
Radically interoperable data and AI can
empower consumers in ways that are difficult to
visualize today. Data about individuals, populations,
institutions, and the environment will be at the
heart of the future of health.
Most of the care provided today is highly algo-
rithmic and predictable. By 2040, high-cost, highly
trained health professionals will be able to devote
more time to patients who have complex health
conditions. Data and technology will empower
consumers to address many routine health issues
at home. Consider a child who has an ear infection.
Rather than taking the child to a clinic or doctor’s
office, an at-home diagnostic test could be used to
confirm the patient’s diagnosis. Open and secure
data platforms would allow the parent to verify the
diagnosis, order the necessary prescription, and
have it delivered to the home via drone. Or maybe
the ear infection never materializes because the
issue is identified and addressed before symptoms
appear. In this case, a prescription isn’t needed at
all because the parents intervened early. In both
scenarios, consumers address health issues at home
while allowing physicians to focus on cases that
truly require human intervention.
The consumer—rather than health plans or
providers—will determine when, where, and with
whom he or she engages for care or to sustain well-
being. Over the next 20 years, all health information
will likely become accessible and—with appropriate
Source: Deloitte analysis.
Deloitte Insights | deloitte.com/insights
FIGURE 3
The future of health will be driven by digital transformation enabled by
radically interoperable data and open, secure platforms
Well-being + Care delivery
Insights
I
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f
r
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well-being
Consumer
Receive
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S
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ndards
Equitable na
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M
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Advise Suppor
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Treat
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+
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a
Three categories of business
archetypes in the future of health
environment.
Five tasks that ecosystem players will
perform on behalf of consumers.
Five enablers for consumers to
accomplish their jobs to be done.
Two jobs to be done for consumers to
holistically address their health (overall
state of well-being encompassing
mental, social, emotional, physical,
and spiritual health).
The catalyst for change: Radically
interoperable data will empower
hyper-engaged consumers to sustain
well-being and receive care only in the
instances where well-being fails.
Always-on sensors
that capture data and
platforms that
aggregate, store,
and derive insights
from individual,
institutional,
population, and
environmental data
will catalyze the
transformation.
W
D
a
t
a
+
P
l
a
t
f
o
rm
s
Forces of change: The future of health
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permissions—broadly shared by the consumers
who own it.
But consumers might not be willing to share
this information with organizations that don’t
offer value, or that aren’t trusted. Consumers
tend to trust hospitals and physicians more than
other health care organizations, according to our
2018 consumer survey. While trust in health plans
and pharmaceutical companies is relatively low,
consumers are twice as likely to trust information
from these groups as they were in 2010. Health
stakeholders should consider ways to earn the trust
of these empowered consumers.
HOW WILL TECHNOLOGY HELP
IMPROVE WELL-BEING?
Consumers are growing accustomed to wearable
devices that track activity. Deloitte’s 2018 US Health
Care Consumer Survey shows that consumers are
tracking their health and fitness data two and a half
times more today than they were in 2013. Data-
gathering devices will become exponentially more
sophisticated and will continuously track activity,
health, and environmental factors. This ongoing
monitoring can help ensure that health conditions
and risks are identified and addressed early. In
rare instances when treatment is needed, it can be
highly personalized.
Consumers can already remotely adjust ther-
mostats, set alarms, and turn on lights in their
homes. Cycle that forward to a home equipped with
remote-monitoring biosensors. This might include
a hyperconnected bathroom where the mirror and
other tech-enabled appliances process, detect, and
analyze health information. Highly attuned sensors
embedded in a bathroom mirror, for example,
might track body temperature and blood pressure,
and detect anomalies by comparing those vitals to a
person’s historical biometric data. Maybe this smart
mirror even plays a skin care tutorial reminding the
user to apply sunscreen based on that individual’s
plan for the day together with the weather forecast.
Analyses conducted by a tech-enabled toilet
might be able to spot biomarkers that would
indicate a potential change in health status
long before symptoms appear.
Outsideofthehome,environmentalsensors
might detect UV levels, air pressure changes,
and pollen levels. Such information could help
keep consumers in tune with their health and
quickly spot issues that could indicate the early
stages of illness or disease. Rather than picking
up a prescription at the pharmacy, personalized
therapies based on a person’s genomics could be
dropped off via drone when needed.
What are the impacts of
the future of health?
The future of health will impact incumbent
stakeholders, new entrants, employers, and
consumers. Many incumbents are understandably
hesitant to drive change in a marketplace that they
currently dominate. Given their strong foothold in
the existing ecosystem, and their ability to navigate
the regulatory environment, these organizations
may be well-positioned to lead from the front.
Technology-focused companies such as Google,
Amazon, and Apple9
are beginning to disrupt the
existing market and reshape the model. Legacy
stakeholders should consider whether to disrupt
themselves or isolate and protect their offer-
ings to retain some of their existing market share.
Incumbent players that are able to reinvent
themselves could help usher in the future of health,
while some could succumb to competition coming
from outside the traditional industry boundaries.
We anticipate that by 2040 successful compa-
nies will identify and compete in one or more of
the new business archetypes illustrated in figure 4,
taking into consideration their existing capabilities,
We anticipate that successful
companies will identify and
compete in one or more new
business archetypes.
Forces of change: The future of health
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7
core missions and beliefs, and expectations for
the future.
Largely replacing the siloed industry segments
we have now (such as health systems and clinicians,
health plans, biopharmaceutical companies, and
medical device manufacturers), we expect new roles,
functions, and players to emerge. In the future of
health, we expect three broad categories to emerge
(data and platforms, well-being and care delivery,
and care enablement). Within these categories, we
envision 10 archetypes. Organizations might exist
in more than one category, but they typically will
not take on all archetypes in a category.
Data and platforms. The future of health will
require that data be collected from multiple sources
to enhance research, to help innovators develop
analytic tools, and to generate the insights needed
for personalized, always-on decision-making.
Organizations focused on data and platforms can
capture an increasingly significant share of the
profit pool as they provide the infrastructure to
engage consumers, facilitate data access and anal-
ysis, and connect stakeholders across the industry.
These archetypes will serve as the backbone for the
health care ecosystem of tomorrow.
1.	 Data conveners (data collectors, data
connectors, and data securers). These
organizations will have an economic model
built around aggregating, storing, and securing
individual, population, institutional, and envi-
ronmental data. This data can be used to drive
the future of health.
2.	 Science and insights engines (developers,
analytics gurus, insight discoverers).
Some organizations will likely have an economic
model driven by their ability to derive insights
and define the algorithms that power the future
of health. These organizations can use machine-
led activities to conduct research, develop
analytical tools, and generate data insights that
go far beyond human capabilities.
3.	 Dataandplatforminfrastructurebuilders
(core platform developers, platform
managers and operators). This new world
Source: Deloitte analysis.
Deloitte Insights | deloitte.com/insights
FIGURE 4
Ten winning business archetypes in the future of health
Care enablement
Powered by radically interoperable data for a personalized and seamless consumer experience
Data convener
Science and
insights engine
Localized health hub
Data/platform
infrastructure builder
Health products
developer
Consumer-centric health
“virtual home + community”
Specialty care operator
Connectors
and intermediaries
Individualized nancer
Data + platforms Well-being + care delivery
Regulator
Forces of change: The future of health
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of health will need infrastructure and platforms
that can serve highly empowered and engaged
individuals in real time. (Someone will need to
lay the pipes.) A limited number of large-scale
technology players will develop core platforms,
interfaces, and infrastructure to enable data
sharing, virtual health, and consumer-centric
health. They will also develop standards for plat-
form and application integration, architecture,
and user experience.
Well-being and care delivery. Community
health hubs, specialty care operators, virtual
communities and care-delivery mechanisms, and
product developers will work in partnership with
one another to drive a tailored promotion of health
and well-being. These virtual and physical commu-
nities will provide consumer-centric delivery of
products, care, and well-being. Health stakeholders
that focus on well-being and care delivery today
typically capture a majority share of the profit
pool as direct providers of care. However, they
should embrace new ways of working, new ways of
engaging consumers, and new ways of delivering
well-being services and care to compete effectively.
1.	 Health products developer (application
developers, inventors/innovators, manu-
facturers). The economic model of these
organizations are driven by their ability to enable
well-being and care delivery. Medical products
might no longer be limited to pharmaceuticals
and medical devices. They could also include
software, applications, wellness products, even
health-focused foods. The home bathroom of
the future, for example, might include a smart
toilet that uses always-on sensors to test for
nitrites, glucose, protein, and pH to detect infec-
tions, disease, even pregnancy. A smart mirror
equipped with facial recognition might be able
to distinguish a mole from melanoma. Breath
biome sensors in a smart toothbrush might
detect genetic changes that indicate early stages
of disease. Foods might be modified to contain
cancer-killing bacteria that integrate into the
consumer’s biome.
2.	 Consumer-centric health/virtual home
and community (virtual health providers
and enablers, and wellness coaches).
Along with companies that develop health
products, other organizations will provide the
structure that supports virtual communities.
These communities could be defined by geog-
raphy, or they might be communities made
up of people with a certain health condition. A
community could also be comprised of a patient,
his or her family members, and supporters.
3.	 Specialty care operators (world-class
health centers, event-specific facilities).
Two decades from now, we will still have disease,
which means we will still need specialty care
providers and highly specialized facilities where
those patients can receive care.
4.	 Localized health hubs. While there will be
some specialty care, most health care will likely
be delivered in localized health hubs. The brick-
and-mortar hubs will serve as shopping centers
for education, prevention, and treatment in
a retail setting. Additionally, local hubs will
connect consumers to virtual, home, and auxil-
iary wellness providers.
Care enablement. Financiers and inter-
mediaries will facilitate consumer payment and
coordinate supply logistics, respectively, but they
Forces of change: The future of health
9
could experience decreases in margins and share
of profits, driven by advanced analytics and risk
assessment.
1.	 Connectors and intermediaries (enter-
prise tool developers, supply chain
designers and coordinators, delivery
service providers). These are the logis-
tics providers that will run the just-in-time
supply chain, facilitate device and medication
procurement operations, and get the product to
the consumer.
2.	 Individualized financiers (N of 1 insurers,
catastrophic care insurers, government
safety net payers). Similar to health insurers
of today, these organizations will create the
financial products that individuals will use
to navigate their care, but
these products will offer
more specific, tailored, and
modular products, as well as
catastrophic care coverage
packages. Some individual
financiers will include nonin-
surance financing products
(for example, loans, lines of
credits, subscriptions). They will drive reduc-
tions in care costs by leveraging advanced risk
models, consumer incentives, and market power.
3.	 Regulators (market leaders and innova-
tors, government regulators and policy
makers). While we will still have regulators,
we probably won’t view them as governmental
traffic cops. They will set the standards for how
business is transacted. The regulators of the
future will influence policy in an effort to cata-
lyze the future of health and drive innovation
while promoting consumer and public safety
(they might be as much collaborators in trans-
formation as stewards).
How do we expect incumbent
players to change?
We envision an era of unprecedented change and
opportunity. New business models will incorporate
these archetypes and redefine the health landscape.
Organizations should choose where they want to
play across these archetypes. For example:
•	 Hospitals and health systems. The acute-
care hospital will no longer serve as the center of
gravity. Instead, the center of gravity in this new
system will be consumers. Organizations that
want to play a role in the delivery of care should
determine how they can expand their points of
access to get closer—both physically and digi-
tally—to their customers. Health care providers
should also find ways to decrease delivery costs
to maintain margins. Near-term strategies might
include enabling patient self-service, creating
more remote and virtual health solutions, digi-
tization, and advanced population management.
•	 Health plans. Health plans will likely develop
new business models that move beyond claims
processing to focus on members’ well-being,
according to Deloitte research on the health
plan of tomorrow. We expect health plans to
become data conveners, science and insight
engines, and/or data and platform infrastruc-
ture builders. Using the wealth of data they
possess, health plans could develop new revenue
streams based on consumer insights, monetiza-
tion of data, population health initiatives, and
customized offerings.
Health care sectors will look very
different in 2040. Organizations
should begin to plan now for where
they want to play in the future.
Forces of change: The future of health
10
•	 Medical device companies. An increased
focus on prevention and early intervention—
combined with advances in biosensors and
digital technology—can create new opportuni-
ties for medical technology companies. But
they might not be able to take advantage of
those opportunities on their own. Over the next
two years, more than 80 percent of medtech
companies expect to collaborate with organiza-
tions from outside of the health sector,
according to a survey by the Deloitte Center for
Health Solutions and AdvaMed.
•	 Drug manufacturers. Biopharmaceutical
companies are set to develop hyper-tailored
therapies that cure disease rather than treat
symptoms. Individual drug prices could rise as
therapies become more efficacious and applied
in more targeted populations. However, overall
drug spending could decrease as the unit volume
falls. Advanced early intervention and enhanced
adherence could also help ensure the effective-
ness of these new therapies.
What should you do next?
The health industry is on the cusp of a transfor-
mation that will affect all stakeholders. Incumbent
players can either lead this transformation as inno-
vative and well-connected market leaders or they
can try to resist this inevitable change.
A wide range of companies—from inside and
outside of the health care sector—are already
making strategic investments that could form the
foundation for a future of health that is defined by
radically interoperable data, open and secure plat-
forms, and consumer-driven care.
As stakeholders prepare for the future of health,
they should consider the following actions:
•	 Build new businesses. The incidence and
prevalence of major chronic diseases (for
example, type 2 diabetes, hypertension, COPD)
will likely decline dramatically. In response,
health organizations should adjust their busi-
ness models to stay competitive.
•	 Forge partnerships. Technology giants, start-
ups, and other disruptors are new to the health
care landscape but are incentivized to drive
change. What they lack is health care expertise,
regulatory expertise, a targeted consumer base,
and existing partnerships with other incum-
bents. Disruptors will likely be more willing
to partner with incumbents that are seen as
driving innovation.
•	 Appeal to the newly empowered health
consumer. Stakeholders should develop
tactics to engage effectively with consumers.
They should also work to earn their trust and
demonstrate value. Consumer attitudes and
behaviors are malleable in the future of health.
Interoperable data, machine and deep learning
capabilities, always-on biosensors, and behav-
ioral research can enable personalized and
real-time AI-driven behavioral interventions
that shape consumer beliefs and actions.
In the future of health, incumbents and
industry disruptors will share a common purpose.
While disease will never be completely eliminated,
through science, data, and technology, we will be
able to identify it earlier, intervene proactively,
and understand its progression to help consumers
effectively and actively sustain their well-being. The
future will be focused on wellness and managed by
companies that assume new roles to drive value in a
transformed health ecosystem. If this vision for the
future of health is realized, we could see healthier
populations and dramatic decreases in health care
spending. If we’re right, by 2040, we might not
recognize the industry at all.
Forces of change: The future of health
11
1.	 Energy.gov, “The history of the electric car,” September 15, 2014.
2.	 Leonardo Secchin Canale et al., “Robotically assisted totally endoscopic coronary artery bypass surgery,” Journal
of Thoracic Disease 5, (2013): pp. S641–49, DOI: 10.3978/j.issn.2072-1439.2013.10.19.
3.	 James Oliver Cury, “David Bowie to release entire new album online,” Rolling Stone, August 30, 1999.
4.	 National Human Genome Research Institute, “International human genome sequencing consortium announces
‘working draft’ of human genome,” June 2000.
5.	 IHS Markit, “More than six billion smartphones by 2020, IHS Markit says,” January 18, 2017.
6.	 Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, “NHE Fact Sheet,” February 20, 2019.
7.	 NASUAD, “People with Medicare are most likely to have chronic conditions,” accessed April 1, 2019.
8.	 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “About chronic diseases,” accessed April 1, 2019.
9.	 Forces of change: The Future of Health is an independent publication and has not been authorized, sponsored, or
otherwise approved by Apple Inc.
Endnotes
Forces of change: The future of health
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12
NEAL BATRA, Deloitte Consulting LLP, is a principal in Deloitte’s Life Sciences and Health Care practice
focused on business model and commercial operating model innovation, redesign, and transformation.
He heads Deloitte’s Life Sciences Strategy & Analytics practice, leading the way on next-gen enterprise/
functional evolution by connecting strategic choice with analytics and technology. Batra has more than
15 years of experience advising health care organizations across the ecosystem on critical strategic
challenges, including leading businesses in biotech, medtech, health insurance, and retail health care.
Batra is the coauthor of Deloitte’s provocative Future of Health point-of-view, speculating on the health
care ecosystem in 2040 and the business models and capabilities that will matter most. Batra lives in the
Tribeca neighborhood in New York City. He holds an MBA from London Business School and a BBA from
the College of William and Mary.
DAVID BETTS, Deloitte Consulting LLP, is a principal and national leader for Customer Transformation
for the health care provider sector. His work focuses on assisting clients to create a more patient-centric,
consumer-oriented health care delivery system, bringing innovation and design thinking to our health
care clients to improve patient and family experience and engagement. Betts is also a leader of Deloitte’s
Future of Health perspective, and is based in Pittsburgh.
STEVE DAVIS, Deloitte Services LP, is a health research and policy writer with the Deloitte Center for
Health Solutions (CHS). He is responsible for writing and editing blogs and other content generated by
the CHS. Prior to joining Deloitte in 2017, Davis spent 25 years as a journalist covering health insurance,
hospitals, and health policy. He earned his journalism degree at the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater.
He is based in Washington, DC.
The authors would like to thank Deloitte’s Future of Health leadership, including Doug Beaudoin, Amry
Junaideen, and Ralph Judah for their insights and perspectives for sharing our future vision.
The authors would also like to thank Hanna Patterson, Libbey Davis, Maura Cassidy, Lynn
Sherry, Lauren Wallace, Samantha Gordon, and the many others who contributed to the success of
this project.
About the authors
Acknowledgments
Forces of change: The future of health
12
13
Contacts
Neal Batra
Principal
Deloitte Consulting LLP
+1 212 492 4000
nebatra@deloitte.com
David Betts
Principal
Deloitte Consulting LLP
+1 412 402 5967
dabetts@deloitte.com
Ralph Judah
Managing director
Deloitte Consulting LLP
+1 617 584 0455
rajudah@deloitte.com
Sarah Thomas, MS
Managing director
Deloitte Center for Health Solutions
Deloitte Services LP
+1 202 220 2749
sarthomas@deloitte.com
The source for fresh perspectives in health care: The Deloitte Center for Health Solutions (DCHS), part
of Deloitte LLP’s Life Sciences and Health Care practice, looks deeper at the biggest industry issues and
provides new thinking around complex challenges. Cutting-edge research and thought-provoking anal-
ysis give our clients the insights they need to see things differently and address the changing landscape.
To learn more about the DCHS and our research, please visit www.deloitte.com/centerforhealthsolutions.
About the Deloitte Center for Health Solutions
The health industry is on the cusp of a major transformation that will affect all stakeholders.
Incumbent players can either lead this transformation as innovative and well-connected market
leaders or they can try to resist this inevitable change. A wide range of companies—from inside
and outside of the health care sector—are already making strategic investments that could form
the foundation for a future of health that is defined by radically interoperable data, open and
secure platforms, and consumer-driven care. For more on Deloitte’s perspective on the future of
health, visit www.deloitte.com/future.
Forces of change: The future of health
About Deloitte Insights
Deloitte Insights publishes original articles, reports and periodicals that provide insights for businesses, the public sector and
NGOs. Our goal is to draw upon research and experience from throughout our professional services organization, and that of
coauthors in academia and business, to advance the conversation on a broad spectrum of topics of interest to executives and
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Deloitte Insights is an imprint of Deloitte Development LLC.
About this publication
This publication contains general information only, and none of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, its member firms, or its and
their affiliates are, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other profes-
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that may affect your finances or your business, you should consult a qualified professional adviser.
None of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, its member firms, or its and their respective affiliates shall be responsible for any
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About Deloitte
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DI_Forces-of-change_Future-of-health-g.pdf

  • 1. FEATURE Forces of change The future of health The Deloitte Center for Health Solutions
  • 2. 2 Executive summary Twenty years from now, cancer and diabetes could join polio as defeated diseases. We expect prevention and early diagnoses will be central to the future of health. The onset of disease, in some cases, could be delayed or eliminated altogether. Sophisticated tests and tools could mean most diag- noses (and care) take place at home. Today, the US health care system is a collec- tion of disconnected components (health plans, hospital systems, pharmaceutical companies, medical device manufacturers). By 2040, we expect the consumer will be at the center of the health model. Interoperable, always-on data will promote closer collaboration among industry stakeholders, and new combinations of services will be offered by incumbents and new entrants (disruptors). Interventions and treatments are likely to be more precise, less complex, less invasive, and cheaper. Health will be defined holistically as an overall state of well-being encompassing mental, social, emotional, physical, and spiritual health. Not only will consumers have access to detailed information about their own health, they will own their health data and play a central role in making decisions about their health and well-being. What is the future of health? The future of health that we envision is only about 20 years off, but health in 2040 will be a world apart from what we have now. Based on emerging technology, we can be reasonably certain that digital transformation—enabled by radically interoperable data, artificial intelligence (AI), and open, secure platforms—will drive much of this change. Unlike today, we believe care will be organized around the consumer, rather than around the institutions that drive our existing health care system. By 2040 (and perhaps beginning significantly before), streams of health data—together with data from a variety of other relevant sources—will merge to create a multifaceted and highly personalized picture of every consumer’s well-being. Today, wear- able devices that track our steps, sleep patterns, and even heart rate have been integrated into our lives in ways we couldn’t have imagined just a few years ago. We expect this trend to accelerate. The next generation of sensors, for example, will move us from wearable devices to invisible, always-on sensors that are embedded in the devices that surround us. Many medtech companies are already beginning to incorporate always-on biosensors and software into devices that can generate, gather, and share data. Advanced cognitive technologies could be developed to analyze a significantly large set of parameters and create personalized insights into a consumer’s health. The availability of data and personalized AI can enable precision well-being and real-time microinterventions that allow us to get ahead of sickness and far ahead of catastrophic disease. Consumers—armed with this highly detailed personal information about their own health—will likely demand that their health information be portable. Consumers have grown accustomed to transformations that have occurred in other sectors, The future of health will likely be driven by digital transformation enabled by radically interoperable data and open, secure platforms. Health is likely to revolve around sustaining well-being rather than responding to illness. Health in 2040 will be a world apart from what we have now. Forces of change: The future of health 2
  • 3. 3 such as e-commerce and mobility. These consumers will demand that health follow the same path and become an integrated part of their lives—and they’ll vote with their feet and their wallets. EXPONENTIAL CHANGE AND INNOVATION CYCLES While we don’t know with precision how the future will play out, we can look at signals in the market today—and the forces of change in other industries—to start to paint a picture of the future of health. In virtually every industry, fundamental shifts in innovation tend to occur in seven-year cycles (figure 1). Health is no different. By 2040, three of these cycles will have passed—each building off of the other. To determine where health might FIGURE 1 Exponential change will accelerate the pace of disruption Note: All dollar amounts are given in US dollars. Source: Deloitte analysis. Deloitte Insights | deloitte.com/insights Technological development Pace of innovation Trends underlying exponential growth Moore’s law: The power of chips, bandwidth, and computers doubles approximately every 18 months. Mobile phones: The number of mobile phones worldwide doubled in the the last 48 months DNA sequencing: What once cost $1 billion and took 13 years to accomplish now costs less than $100 and can be done in less than 1 hour Data storage: From $569 per GB to <$0.01 The human factor Technology development feeds and enables various trends in society: Social connection Well-being Decentralization DIY Nanotechnology Present Understood... 7 years Directional... 14 years Perception is linear Reality is exponential In health care, regulatory bodies (e.g., FDA) are working to keep up with the pace of change spearheaded by innovative entrants In traditional models of change, tech leads the charge followed by business models, and then regulation Unknown... 21 years Quantum computing Robotics Biomedical engineering Articial intelligence Cost of data storage Connectivity Augmented reality 3D printing Forces of change: The future of health 3
  • 4. 4 be headed, we should look back three innovation cycles and consider where exponential innovation has taken us. Figure 2 shares several examples. FIGURE 2 Examples of exponential innovation Hybrid cars In 1997—a little more than three innovation cycles ago—the first hybrid car was made available to the public. We now have fully electric cars and routinely see autonomous vehicles being tested on the roads in many of our cities.1 Robots in the operating room In 1998, the first surgery was performed using robotic assistance.2 Today, robotic surgery is the standard of care for many procedures. Digital music In 1999, the first complete music album by a major artist was made available to download over the Internet in advance of its physical release.3 Today, it is hard to remember buying music on physical media. Genomics In 2000, the first rough draft of a human genome was announced.4 Today, millions of people have traced their ancestry through mail-order DNA test kits and are beginning to look at their genetics to identify potential health risks. Smartphones Prior to 2007, smartphones did not exist in the market. There are now 2.6 billion smartphones around the globe, and by 2020, that number is expected to grow to 6.1 billion, or nine out of 10 people.5 Souce: Deloitte analysis. Why does the future of health matter? Nothing is more important than our health. All of us interact with the health care system to varying degrees, and we will continue to interact with it throughout our lives. The cost of health care affects individuals, families, and employers as well as local, state, and federal budgets. In 2017, US health care spending topped US$3.5 trillion (17.9 percent of the gross domestic product). That translates to US$10,739 for every person in the country.6 An estimated 133 million Americans have at least one chronic disease (such as heart disease, asthma, cancer, and diabetes), and the number of people who have a chronic illness has been rising steadily for years.7 Hospital care now makes up about one-third of all health care spending in the United States, and chronic illnesses are tied to more than 80 percent of hospital admissions.8 While chronic diseases are typically incurable, they can often be prevented or managed. Health care consumers typically interact with the health system only when they are sick or injured. But the future of health will be focused on well- being and prevention rather than treatment. We predict that more health spend will be devoted to sustaining well-being and preventing illness by 2040, while less will be tied to assessing conditions and treating illness. Greater emphasis on well-being and identifying health risks earlier will result in fewer and less severe diseases, which will reduce health care spending, allowing the reinvestment of this well-being dividend to expand the benefits to the broad population. Along with helping to improve the well-being of individuals, health care stakeholders will also work to improve population health. Interoperable data sets will be used to drive microinterventions that help keep people healthy (figure 3). In response to this shifting health landscape, traditional jobs we know today will undergo change. Health will be monitored continuously so that risks can be identified early. Rather than assessing patients and treating them, the primary focus will Forces of change: The future of health 4
  • 5. 5 be on sustaining well-being by providing consumers ongoing advice and support. We don’t expect disease to have been eliminated entirely by 2040, but the use of actionable health insights—driven by interoperable data and smart AI—could help identify illness early, enable proac- tive intervention, and improve the understanding of disease progression. This can allow us to avoid many of the catastrophic expenses we have today. Technology might also help break down barriers such as cost and geography that can limit access to health care providers and specialists. Health systems, health plans, and life sciences companies have begun to shift some of their focus to wellness, but the overall system remains focused on sick care. INTEROPERABLE DATA WILL EMPOWER CONSUMERS Radically interoperable data and AI can empower consumers in ways that are difficult to visualize today. Data about individuals, populations, institutions, and the environment will be at the heart of the future of health. Most of the care provided today is highly algo- rithmic and predictable. By 2040, high-cost, highly trained health professionals will be able to devote more time to patients who have complex health conditions. Data and technology will empower consumers to address many routine health issues at home. Consider a child who has an ear infection. Rather than taking the child to a clinic or doctor’s office, an at-home diagnostic test could be used to confirm the patient’s diagnosis. Open and secure data platforms would allow the parent to verify the diagnosis, order the necessary prescription, and have it delivered to the home via drone. Or maybe the ear infection never materializes because the issue is identified and addressed before symptoms appear. In this case, a prescription isn’t needed at all because the parents intervened early. In both scenarios, consumers address health issues at home while allowing physicians to focus on cases that truly require human intervention. The consumer—rather than health plans or providers—will determine when, where, and with whom he or she engages for care or to sustain well- being. Over the next 20 years, all health information will likely become accessible and—with appropriate Source: Deloitte analysis. Deloitte Insights | deloitte.com/insights FIGURE 3 The future of health will be driven by digital transformation enabled by radically interoperable data and open, secure platforms Well-being + Care delivery Insights I n f r a s t r u c t u r e C o n n e c t e d d a t a s e t s S u s t a i n well-being Consumer Receive c a r e S t a ndards Equitable na n c i n g M o n i t o r Advise Suppor t A s s e s s Treat D a t a + P l a t f o rm s Ca r e e n a b l e m e n t O p e n, secure platfo r m s R a d i c a l l y interopera b l e d a t a Three categories of business archetypes in the future of health environment. Five tasks that ecosystem players will perform on behalf of consumers. Five enablers for consumers to accomplish their jobs to be done. Two jobs to be done for consumers to holistically address their health (overall state of well-being encompassing mental, social, emotional, physical, and spiritual health). The catalyst for change: Radically interoperable data will empower hyper-engaged consumers to sustain well-being and receive care only in the instances where well-being fails. Always-on sensors that capture data and platforms that aggregate, store, and derive insights from individual, institutional, population, and environmental data will catalyze the transformation. W D a t a + P l a t f o rm s Forces of change: The future of health 5
  • 6. 6 permissions—broadly shared by the consumers who own it. But consumers might not be willing to share this information with organizations that don’t offer value, or that aren’t trusted. Consumers tend to trust hospitals and physicians more than other health care organizations, according to our 2018 consumer survey. While trust in health plans and pharmaceutical companies is relatively low, consumers are twice as likely to trust information from these groups as they were in 2010. Health stakeholders should consider ways to earn the trust of these empowered consumers. HOW WILL TECHNOLOGY HELP IMPROVE WELL-BEING? Consumers are growing accustomed to wearable devices that track activity. Deloitte’s 2018 US Health Care Consumer Survey shows that consumers are tracking their health and fitness data two and a half times more today than they were in 2013. Data- gathering devices will become exponentially more sophisticated and will continuously track activity, health, and environmental factors. This ongoing monitoring can help ensure that health conditions and risks are identified and addressed early. In rare instances when treatment is needed, it can be highly personalized. Consumers can already remotely adjust ther- mostats, set alarms, and turn on lights in their homes. Cycle that forward to a home equipped with remote-monitoring biosensors. This might include a hyperconnected bathroom where the mirror and other tech-enabled appliances process, detect, and analyze health information. Highly attuned sensors embedded in a bathroom mirror, for example, might track body temperature and blood pressure, and detect anomalies by comparing those vitals to a person’s historical biometric data. Maybe this smart mirror even plays a skin care tutorial reminding the user to apply sunscreen based on that individual’s plan for the day together with the weather forecast. Analyses conducted by a tech-enabled toilet might be able to spot biomarkers that would indicate a potential change in health status long before symptoms appear. Outsideofthehome,environmentalsensors might detect UV levels, air pressure changes, and pollen levels. Such information could help keep consumers in tune with their health and quickly spot issues that could indicate the early stages of illness or disease. Rather than picking up a prescription at the pharmacy, personalized therapies based on a person’s genomics could be dropped off via drone when needed. What are the impacts of the future of health? The future of health will impact incumbent stakeholders, new entrants, employers, and consumers. Many incumbents are understandably hesitant to drive change in a marketplace that they currently dominate. Given their strong foothold in the existing ecosystem, and their ability to navigate the regulatory environment, these organizations may be well-positioned to lead from the front. Technology-focused companies such as Google, Amazon, and Apple9 are beginning to disrupt the existing market and reshape the model. Legacy stakeholders should consider whether to disrupt themselves or isolate and protect their offer- ings to retain some of their existing market share. Incumbent players that are able to reinvent themselves could help usher in the future of health, while some could succumb to competition coming from outside the traditional industry boundaries. We anticipate that by 2040 successful compa- nies will identify and compete in one or more of the new business archetypes illustrated in figure 4, taking into consideration their existing capabilities, We anticipate that successful companies will identify and compete in one or more new business archetypes. Forces of change: The future of health 6
  • 7. 7 core missions and beliefs, and expectations for the future. Largely replacing the siloed industry segments we have now (such as health systems and clinicians, health plans, biopharmaceutical companies, and medical device manufacturers), we expect new roles, functions, and players to emerge. In the future of health, we expect three broad categories to emerge (data and platforms, well-being and care delivery, and care enablement). Within these categories, we envision 10 archetypes. Organizations might exist in more than one category, but they typically will not take on all archetypes in a category. Data and platforms. The future of health will require that data be collected from multiple sources to enhance research, to help innovators develop analytic tools, and to generate the insights needed for personalized, always-on decision-making. Organizations focused on data and platforms can capture an increasingly significant share of the profit pool as they provide the infrastructure to engage consumers, facilitate data access and anal- ysis, and connect stakeholders across the industry. These archetypes will serve as the backbone for the health care ecosystem of tomorrow. 1. Data conveners (data collectors, data connectors, and data securers). These organizations will have an economic model built around aggregating, storing, and securing individual, population, institutional, and envi- ronmental data. This data can be used to drive the future of health. 2. Science and insights engines (developers, analytics gurus, insight discoverers). Some organizations will likely have an economic model driven by their ability to derive insights and define the algorithms that power the future of health. These organizations can use machine- led activities to conduct research, develop analytical tools, and generate data insights that go far beyond human capabilities. 3. Dataandplatforminfrastructurebuilders (core platform developers, platform managers and operators). This new world Source: Deloitte analysis. Deloitte Insights | deloitte.com/insights FIGURE 4 Ten winning business archetypes in the future of health Care enablement Powered by radically interoperable data for a personalized and seamless consumer experience Data convener Science and insights engine Localized health hub Data/platform infrastructure builder Health products developer Consumer-centric health “virtual home + community” Specialty care operator Connectors and intermediaries Individualized nancer Data + platforms Well-being + care delivery Regulator Forces of change: The future of health 7
  • 8. 8 of health will need infrastructure and platforms that can serve highly empowered and engaged individuals in real time. (Someone will need to lay the pipes.) A limited number of large-scale technology players will develop core platforms, interfaces, and infrastructure to enable data sharing, virtual health, and consumer-centric health. They will also develop standards for plat- form and application integration, architecture, and user experience. Well-being and care delivery. Community health hubs, specialty care operators, virtual communities and care-delivery mechanisms, and product developers will work in partnership with one another to drive a tailored promotion of health and well-being. These virtual and physical commu- nities will provide consumer-centric delivery of products, care, and well-being. Health stakeholders that focus on well-being and care delivery today typically capture a majority share of the profit pool as direct providers of care. However, they should embrace new ways of working, new ways of engaging consumers, and new ways of delivering well-being services and care to compete effectively. 1. Health products developer (application developers, inventors/innovators, manu- facturers). The economic model of these organizations are driven by their ability to enable well-being and care delivery. Medical products might no longer be limited to pharmaceuticals and medical devices. They could also include software, applications, wellness products, even health-focused foods. The home bathroom of the future, for example, might include a smart toilet that uses always-on sensors to test for nitrites, glucose, protein, and pH to detect infec- tions, disease, even pregnancy. A smart mirror equipped with facial recognition might be able to distinguish a mole from melanoma. Breath biome sensors in a smart toothbrush might detect genetic changes that indicate early stages of disease. Foods might be modified to contain cancer-killing bacteria that integrate into the consumer’s biome. 2. Consumer-centric health/virtual home and community (virtual health providers and enablers, and wellness coaches). Along with companies that develop health products, other organizations will provide the structure that supports virtual communities. These communities could be defined by geog- raphy, or they might be communities made up of people with a certain health condition. A community could also be comprised of a patient, his or her family members, and supporters. 3. Specialty care operators (world-class health centers, event-specific facilities). Two decades from now, we will still have disease, which means we will still need specialty care providers and highly specialized facilities where those patients can receive care. 4. Localized health hubs. While there will be some specialty care, most health care will likely be delivered in localized health hubs. The brick- and-mortar hubs will serve as shopping centers for education, prevention, and treatment in a retail setting. Additionally, local hubs will connect consumers to virtual, home, and auxil- iary wellness providers. Care enablement. Financiers and inter- mediaries will facilitate consumer payment and coordinate supply logistics, respectively, but they Forces of change: The future of health
  • 9. 9 could experience decreases in margins and share of profits, driven by advanced analytics and risk assessment. 1. Connectors and intermediaries (enter- prise tool developers, supply chain designers and coordinators, delivery service providers). These are the logis- tics providers that will run the just-in-time supply chain, facilitate device and medication procurement operations, and get the product to the consumer. 2. Individualized financiers (N of 1 insurers, catastrophic care insurers, government safety net payers). Similar to health insurers of today, these organizations will create the financial products that individuals will use to navigate their care, but these products will offer more specific, tailored, and modular products, as well as catastrophic care coverage packages. Some individual financiers will include nonin- surance financing products (for example, loans, lines of credits, subscriptions). They will drive reduc- tions in care costs by leveraging advanced risk models, consumer incentives, and market power. 3. Regulators (market leaders and innova- tors, government regulators and policy makers). While we will still have regulators, we probably won’t view them as governmental traffic cops. They will set the standards for how business is transacted. The regulators of the future will influence policy in an effort to cata- lyze the future of health and drive innovation while promoting consumer and public safety (they might be as much collaborators in trans- formation as stewards). How do we expect incumbent players to change? We envision an era of unprecedented change and opportunity. New business models will incorporate these archetypes and redefine the health landscape. Organizations should choose where they want to play across these archetypes. For example: • Hospitals and health systems. The acute- care hospital will no longer serve as the center of gravity. Instead, the center of gravity in this new system will be consumers. Organizations that want to play a role in the delivery of care should determine how they can expand their points of access to get closer—both physically and digi- tally—to their customers. Health care providers should also find ways to decrease delivery costs to maintain margins. Near-term strategies might include enabling patient self-service, creating more remote and virtual health solutions, digi- tization, and advanced population management. • Health plans. Health plans will likely develop new business models that move beyond claims processing to focus on members’ well-being, according to Deloitte research on the health plan of tomorrow. We expect health plans to become data conveners, science and insight engines, and/or data and platform infrastruc- ture builders. Using the wealth of data they possess, health plans could develop new revenue streams based on consumer insights, monetiza- tion of data, population health initiatives, and customized offerings. Health care sectors will look very different in 2040. Organizations should begin to plan now for where they want to play in the future. Forces of change: The future of health
  • 10. 10 • Medical device companies. An increased focus on prevention and early intervention— combined with advances in biosensors and digital technology—can create new opportuni- ties for medical technology companies. But they might not be able to take advantage of those opportunities on their own. Over the next two years, more than 80 percent of medtech companies expect to collaborate with organiza- tions from outside of the health sector, according to a survey by the Deloitte Center for Health Solutions and AdvaMed. • Drug manufacturers. Biopharmaceutical companies are set to develop hyper-tailored therapies that cure disease rather than treat symptoms. Individual drug prices could rise as therapies become more efficacious and applied in more targeted populations. However, overall drug spending could decrease as the unit volume falls. Advanced early intervention and enhanced adherence could also help ensure the effective- ness of these new therapies. What should you do next? The health industry is on the cusp of a transfor- mation that will affect all stakeholders. Incumbent players can either lead this transformation as inno- vative and well-connected market leaders or they can try to resist this inevitable change. A wide range of companies—from inside and outside of the health care sector—are already making strategic investments that could form the foundation for a future of health that is defined by radically interoperable data, open and secure plat- forms, and consumer-driven care. As stakeholders prepare for the future of health, they should consider the following actions: • Build new businesses. The incidence and prevalence of major chronic diseases (for example, type 2 diabetes, hypertension, COPD) will likely decline dramatically. In response, health organizations should adjust their busi- ness models to stay competitive. • Forge partnerships. Technology giants, start- ups, and other disruptors are new to the health care landscape but are incentivized to drive change. What they lack is health care expertise, regulatory expertise, a targeted consumer base, and existing partnerships with other incum- bents. Disruptors will likely be more willing to partner with incumbents that are seen as driving innovation. • Appeal to the newly empowered health consumer. Stakeholders should develop tactics to engage effectively with consumers. They should also work to earn their trust and demonstrate value. Consumer attitudes and behaviors are malleable in the future of health. Interoperable data, machine and deep learning capabilities, always-on biosensors, and behav- ioral research can enable personalized and real-time AI-driven behavioral interventions that shape consumer beliefs and actions. In the future of health, incumbents and industry disruptors will share a common purpose. While disease will never be completely eliminated, through science, data, and technology, we will be able to identify it earlier, intervene proactively, and understand its progression to help consumers effectively and actively sustain their well-being. The future will be focused on wellness and managed by companies that assume new roles to drive value in a transformed health ecosystem. If this vision for the future of health is realized, we could see healthier populations and dramatic decreases in health care spending. If we’re right, by 2040, we might not recognize the industry at all. Forces of change: The future of health
  • 11. 11 1. Energy.gov, “The history of the electric car,” September 15, 2014. 2. Leonardo Secchin Canale et al., “Robotically assisted totally endoscopic coronary artery bypass surgery,” Journal of Thoracic Disease 5, (2013): pp. S641–49, DOI: 10.3978/j.issn.2072-1439.2013.10.19. 3. James Oliver Cury, “David Bowie to release entire new album online,” Rolling Stone, August 30, 1999. 4. National Human Genome Research Institute, “International human genome sequencing consortium announces ‘working draft’ of human genome,” June 2000. 5. IHS Markit, “More than six billion smartphones by 2020, IHS Markit says,” January 18, 2017. 6. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, “NHE Fact Sheet,” February 20, 2019. 7. NASUAD, “People with Medicare are most likely to have chronic conditions,” accessed April 1, 2019. 8. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “About chronic diseases,” accessed April 1, 2019. 9. Forces of change: The Future of Health is an independent publication and has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved by Apple Inc. Endnotes Forces of change: The future of health 11
  • 12. 12 NEAL BATRA, Deloitte Consulting LLP, is a principal in Deloitte’s Life Sciences and Health Care practice focused on business model and commercial operating model innovation, redesign, and transformation. He heads Deloitte’s Life Sciences Strategy & Analytics practice, leading the way on next-gen enterprise/ functional evolution by connecting strategic choice with analytics and technology. Batra has more than 15 years of experience advising health care organizations across the ecosystem on critical strategic challenges, including leading businesses in biotech, medtech, health insurance, and retail health care. Batra is the coauthor of Deloitte’s provocative Future of Health point-of-view, speculating on the health care ecosystem in 2040 and the business models and capabilities that will matter most. Batra lives in the Tribeca neighborhood in New York City. He holds an MBA from London Business School and a BBA from the College of William and Mary. DAVID BETTS, Deloitte Consulting LLP, is a principal and national leader for Customer Transformation for the health care provider sector. His work focuses on assisting clients to create a more patient-centric, consumer-oriented health care delivery system, bringing innovation and design thinking to our health care clients to improve patient and family experience and engagement. Betts is also a leader of Deloitte’s Future of Health perspective, and is based in Pittsburgh. STEVE DAVIS, Deloitte Services LP, is a health research and policy writer with the Deloitte Center for Health Solutions (CHS). He is responsible for writing and editing blogs and other content generated by the CHS. Prior to joining Deloitte in 2017, Davis spent 25 years as a journalist covering health insurance, hospitals, and health policy. He earned his journalism degree at the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater. He is based in Washington, DC. The authors would like to thank Deloitte’s Future of Health leadership, including Doug Beaudoin, Amry Junaideen, and Ralph Judah for their insights and perspectives for sharing our future vision. The authors would also like to thank Hanna Patterson, Libbey Davis, Maura Cassidy, Lynn Sherry, Lauren Wallace, Samantha Gordon, and the many others who contributed to the success of this project. About the authors Acknowledgments Forces of change: The future of health 12
  • 13. 13 Contacts Neal Batra Principal Deloitte Consulting LLP +1 212 492 4000 nebatra@deloitte.com David Betts Principal Deloitte Consulting LLP +1 412 402 5967 dabetts@deloitte.com Ralph Judah Managing director Deloitte Consulting LLP +1 617 584 0455 rajudah@deloitte.com Sarah Thomas, MS Managing director Deloitte Center for Health Solutions Deloitte Services LP +1 202 220 2749 sarthomas@deloitte.com The source for fresh perspectives in health care: The Deloitte Center for Health Solutions (DCHS), part of Deloitte LLP’s Life Sciences and Health Care practice, looks deeper at the biggest industry issues and provides new thinking around complex challenges. Cutting-edge research and thought-provoking anal- ysis give our clients the insights they need to see things differently and address the changing landscape. To learn more about the DCHS and our research, please visit www.deloitte.com/centerforhealthsolutions. About the Deloitte Center for Health Solutions The health industry is on the cusp of a major transformation that will affect all stakeholders. Incumbent players can either lead this transformation as innovative and well-connected market leaders or they can try to resist this inevitable change. A wide range of companies—from inside and outside of the health care sector—are already making strategic investments that could form the foundation for a future of health that is defined by radically interoperable data, open and secure platforms, and consumer-driven care. For more on Deloitte’s perspective on the future of health, visit www.deloitte.com/future. Forces of change: The future of health
  • 14. About Deloitte Insights Deloitte Insights publishes original articles, reports and periodicals that provide insights for businesses, the public sector and NGOs. Our goal is to draw upon research and experience from throughout our professional services organization, and that of coauthors in academia and business, to advance the conversation on a broad spectrum of topics of interest to executives and government leaders. Deloitte Insights is an imprint of Deloitte Development LLC. About this publication This publication contains general information only, and none of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, its member firms, or its and their affiliates are, by means of this publication, rendering accounting, business, financial, investment, legal, tax, or other profes- sional advice or services. This publication is not a substitute for such professional advice or services, nor should it be used as a basis for any decision or action that may affect your finances or your business. Before making any decision or taking any action that may affect your finances or your business, you should consult a qualified professional adviser. None of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, its member firms, or its and their respective affiliates shall be responsible for any loss whatsoever sustained by any person who relies on this publication. About Deloitte Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee (“DTTL”), its network of member firms, and their related entities. DTTL and each of its member firms are legally separate and independent entities. DTTL (also referred to as “Deloitte Global”) does not provide services to clients. In the United States, Deloitte refers to one or more of the US member firms of DTTL, their related entities that operate using the “Deloitte” name in the United States and their respective affiliates. Certain services may not be available to attest clients under the rules and regulations of public accounting. Please see www.deloitte.com/about to learn more about our global network of member firms. Copyright Š 2019 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved. Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited Deloitte Insights contributors Editorial: Ramani Moses, Blythe Hurley, and Nairita Gangopadhyay Creative: Molly Woodworth Promotion: Nikita Garia Cover artwork: Kevin Weier Sign up for Deloitte Insights updates at www.deloitte.com/insights. Follow @DeloitteInsight