This document summarizes demand forecasting techniques for energy in Maharashtra State. It discusses key team members working on forecasting and outlines the objectives, steps, and techniques used in demand forecasting, including trend projection, surveys, and econometric methods. Formulas are provided for short-term and long-term demand forecasting of the Maharashtra State Electricity Board based on factors like income, population, price, and technology. Other energy sources available are also summarized along with demand response from industrial consumers. The conclusion notes the forecasting provides results on potential shortage, industrial generation, agricultural demand, and a wholesale electricity market for MSEB.

1. Demand Forecasting
Forecasting methods for energy in Maharashtra State

2.  ANISH KUMAR (10)
 NIZAMUDHEEN TK (50)
 AKBAR HASAN (12)
 MUSHARAT KHAN (21)
 TOSIF KHAN (24)
 AQUEEB NADIM KHAN (17)
 SAHIL GADHAVE (09)
 SHADAB KHAN (20)
 MUGDHA PEDNEKAR (32)
Team Members

3.  “Demand forecasting refers to the prediction
or estimation of future demand of a product.”
 Objectives
 Under or over production
 Market structure
Demand Forecasting

4.  Identify products
 Set parameters
 Determine market
 Gather data
 Calculate actual forecast
Steps in Demand Forecasting

5. Techniques
Survey Methods
Consumer
survey
Opinion Poll
Statistical
Methods
Trend
projection
Barometric
Econometric
Techniques of Demand Forecasting

6.  Short Term Demand Forecast
End-use method
E = S x N x P x H
where,
E = energy consumption of an appliance in kWh
S = penetration level in terms of number of such appliances per
customer
N = number of customers
P = power required by the appliance in kW
H = hours of appliance use.
Demand forecasting of Maharashtra State
Electricity Board

7.  Long term Demand Forecast
Econometric approach
ED = f (Y, Pi, Pj, POP, T)
where,
ED = electricity demand
Y = output or income
Pi = own price
Pj = price of related fuels
POP = population
T = technology
Demand forecasting of Maharashtra State
Electricity Board

8. Residential ED = f (Y per capita, POP, Pi, Pj)
Industrial ED = g (Y of power intensive industries, GFKF or I, index
of T, index of GP)
where,
ED = Energy Demand
GFKF = Gross fixed capital formation
I = Investment
T = Technology
GP = government policy, and f and g represent functional forms
Demand for energy in specific sectors

9.  Hydro Generation Availability
 Varies with rainfall
 10,400 MW
 Liquified Natural Gas
 More than 5 million tons
 $3.5/MMBtu at Dahej
Other energy sources

10.  High tension consumers
 8870 HT consumers
 Consumption is 32 %
 Low tension consumers
 297,612 LT consumers
 Consumption is 10%
Demand response from industrial
consumers

11.  Sophisticated and relevant tools
 Results for MSEB
 Acute shortage
 Industrial generation
 Agricultural demand
 Potential wholesale electricity market
Conclusion