This document summarizes a regression analysis of demand forecasting for Maruti Suzuki's mini and mid-size cars using time-series data. Sales data from November 2011 to August 2012 is presented and scatter diagrams with trend lines are shown for mini and mid-size cars. Simple regression functions are developed relating number of cars sold to months. Forecasts are made for September to November 2012 using the regression functions. References used in the analysis are also listed.

1. Demand Forecasting
of
Maruti Suzuki’S Mini & Mid-Size cars
by
Regression Analysis (Time-Series Data)
Prepared by:
Yubraj Subedi
Bishesh K Sah
Snehlata

2. MEANING OF DEMAND
 Demand is the willingness to buy a particular
commodity at a given point of time backed by
adequate purchasing power.
CONSTITUENTS OF DEMAND
 Willingness to purchase
 Ability to buy
 Time period

3. DEMAND FORECASTING
 It is the activity of estimating the quantity of a
product or service that consumers will purchase.
 It is a technique to predict the future demand for
any particular commodity.
 Companies need to match their supply with
demand to optimize revenue.

4. REGRESSION ANALYSIS
 It helps to understand how the typical value of the
dependent variable changes when any value of
the independent variables vary.
 It is a technique used for demand forecasting by
establishing a regression function between the
dependent and independent variables.

5. SIMPLE REGRESSION FUNCTION
 It is the function with one dependent and one
independent variable.
 A simple regression function is represented by
Y = a + b*X
where Y is the dependent variable
X is the independent variable and
‘a’ & ‘b’ are constants.

6. FACTORS DRIVING DEMAND FOR CARS IN INDIA
 Price of the car
 Income of the consumer
 Financing option
 Advertising and marketing
 New offering
 Exports
 Other factors

7. Sales figure of Mini & Mid-size cars of Maruti Suzuki ltd
(Nov 2011 – Aug 2012)
S.No MONTHS MINI MID-SIZE
1 NOVEMBER 38921 1433
2 DECEMBER 38593 843
3 JANUARY 52036 1939
4 FEBRUARY 49104 2033
5 MARCH 52826 1520
6 APRIL 30720 634
7 MAY 29895 405
8 JUNE 34198 408
9 JULY 28998 679
10 AUGUST 22062 447
(Source: Monthly sales report of Maruti Suzuki ltd published in its official
website)

8. SCATTER DIAGRAM (MINI)
60000
No. of Cars sold (in Units)
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
MONTHS

9. SCATTER DIAGRAM WITH A TREND LINE (MINI)
60000
50000
No. of Cars sold (in Units)
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
MONTHS

10. SCATTER DIAGRAM (MID-SIZE)
2500
No. of Cars sold (in Units)
2000
1500
1000
500
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
MONTHS

11. SCATTER DIAGRAM WITH A TREND LINE (MID-SIZE)
2500
2000
No. of Cars sold (in Units)
1500
1000
500
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
-500
MONTHS

12. FORECASTED DEMAND
S.N MONTHS MINI MID-SIZE
o
11. SEPTEMBER 2012 24808 253
12. OCTOBER 2012 22458 110
13. NOVEMBER 2012 20107 - 32
REGRESSION ANALYSIS.xlsx

13. SIMPLE REGRESSION FUNCTION (MINI)
60000
50000
No. of Cars sold (in Units)
Y = 50662.60 - 2350.42X
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
MONTHS

14. SIMPLE REGRESSION FUNCTION (MID-SIZE)
2500
2000
No. of Cars sold (in Units)
Y = 1815.67 - 142.1X
1500
1000
500
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
-500
MONTHS

15. REFERENCES:
 Managerial economics – D. N. Diwedi
 www.marutisuzuki.com
 www.scribd.com
 www.wikipaedia.org

16. Thank you