The document discusses the future of tin mining. It notes that [1] alluvial and artisanal mining currently dominate tin production but face challenges from high costs and declining reserves. It also points out that [2] tin mining is increasingly occurring in developed nations rather than Asia due to higher political stability and lower costs. Additionally, [3] tin mining operations often depend on valuable by-products for economic viability since tin prices alone are usually insufficient.
Republic of South Sudan: Mining Investment Opportunities in South SudanMining On Top
Mining Investment Opportunities in South Sudan
Hosted by Dr Andu Ezbon Adde, Under Secretary Mining
Mining On Top: Africa - London Summit
24-26 June 2014 | London
Industry collaboration adding value to exploration success - Trench et al - M...John Sykes
Industry collaboration adding value to exploration success - Trench et al - Mar 2015 - Centre for Exploration Targeting / Curtin University / University of Western Australia
Influencing exploration choices in copper at a strategic level - Sykes et al ...John Sykes
Influencing exploration choices in copper at a strategic level - Sykes et al - Dec 2014 - Centre for Exploration Targeting / Curtin University / University of Western Australia
Republic of South Sudan: Mining Investment Opportunities in South SudanMining On Top
Mining Investment Opportunities in South Sudan
Hosted by Dr Andu Ezbon Adde, Under Secretary Mining
Mining On Top: Africa - London Summit
24-26 June 2014 | London
Industry collaboration adding value to exploration success - Trench et al - M...John Sykes
Industry collaboration adding value to exploration success - Trench et al - Mar 2015 - Centre for Exploration Targeting / Curtin University / University of Western Australia
Influencing exploration choices in copper at a strategic level - Sykes et al ...John Sykes
Influencing exploration choices in copper at a strategic level - Sykes et al - Dec 2014 - Centre for Exploration Targeting / Curtin University / University of Western Australia
Republic of Nigeria: Investment Opportunities in Nigeria’s Minerals And Metal...Mining On Top
Republic of Nigeria: Investment Opportunities in Nigeria’s Minerals And Metals Sector
Hosted by Hon Musa Mohammed Sada, Minister of Mines and Steel Development
Battery metals & the energy transition - Wright et al - Sep 2016 - Greenfield...John Sykes
Battery metals & the energy transition - Wright et al - Sep 2016 - Greenfields Research / Rowton Ltd / Centre for Exploration Targeting / The University of Western Australia
NIGERIA : Solid minerals Exploration Mining Exportation Sales and Investmen I...AGAO Groups
This presentation will look at the following
Present state of Nigerian solid mineral exploration
Available solid minerals In Nigeria
Commercial value of the minerals
Government policies on Nigerian solid minerals
How to involve in the exploration of Nigerian solid minerals
Prospects for Investors In Nigerian solid mineral exploration
Held after the markets close in Sydney and over lunch in Mlisten to presentations by ASX listed companies followed by complimentary networking drinks. These events provide attendees with one of Australia's best opportunities to network with high-level representatives from both the resources industry, and the finance and investment communities.
Objective Capital Rare Earths, Speciality and Minor Metals Investment Summit
Focus on rare earths projects around the world
A diversified exposure – rare earths, niobium & zirconium
18 March 2010
by Ian Chalmers, Alkane Resources
2015 Broken Hill Resources Investment Symposium - Julian MalnicSymposium
"Innovating a future in minerals. How to think about the challenges".
Julian Malnic, Chairman Sydney Mining Club and Director NanoCarbon and Deep Space industries.
Investor presentation at 2015 Broken Hill Resources Investment symposium.
Exploration and discovery: Do frameworks and organisation matter?John Sykes
Framing business complexity in exploration:
First, some things around risk & value complexities…..
Then, some thinking around everyday frameworks and standards…..
Some thoughts on a framework for project-level complexity…
And a simple example: The Sinclair Zone Cesium Mine, Western Australia
Finally, the exploration organisation study that keeps on giving…
A global overview of the geology and economics of lithium productionJohn Sykes
Lithium demand is growing fast, driven by a wide range of battery applications, which are in turn changing the structure of
demand, the lithium supply chain and potentially raw material requirements though much still remains uncertain;
•
Geologically ‘brine’ salars and ‘hard rock’ pegmatites remain the most important lithium deposit types in terms of
production and undeveloped resources, however, there are some interesting emerging sedimentary / clay deposits and
unconventional brine concepts and lithium remains very ‘under explored’ globally;
•
Spodumene pegmatites in Australia are the fastest growing source of supply, however, long term competitiveness may be
dependent on successful downstream integration targeting the battery industry;
•
The concept of a Western Australian ‘Lithium Valley’ is possible, despite high costs, due to the number of quality mines,
proximity to Asia, and the unit reduction in freight costs associated with the low grade spodumene concentrate , in addition
to the ‘cluster effect’ of many minerals businesses, specialists and students;
•
The ‘green’ association of lithium use presents a challenge of ‘strategic coherence’ to explorers and miners impacting
decisions around exploration, mining, investors, stakeholders, and leadership;
•
But remember, we are in an unsustainable ‘lithium boom’ of high prices and high volume growth future long term growth
of the industry is reliant on structurally lower prices, and thus structurally lower costs.
Australia's advantage on the periodic table and the significance of emerging ...John Sykes
Opportunities are not equal
Some nearer ‘break out’ than others fewer solutions
required
Some challenges are more ‘resolvable’ than others
Some ‘break outs’ will be bigger than others
Key is to focus on those ‘near breakout’ with resolvable (i.e.
technical, geological) issues, and that have a big pay off
Republic of Nigeria: Investment Opportunities in Nigeria’s Minerals And Metal...Mining On Top
Republic of Nigeria: Investment Opportunities in Nigeria’s Minerals And Metals Sector
Hosted by Hon Musa Mohammed Sada, Minister of Mines and Steel Development
Battery metals & the energy transition - Wright et al - Sep 2016 - Greenfield...John Sykes
Battery metals & the energy transition - Wright et al - Sep 2016 - Greenfields Research / Rowton Ltd / Centre for Exploration Targeting / The University of Western Australia
NIGERIA : Solid minerals Exploration Mining Exportation Sales and Investmen I...AGAO Groups
This presentation will look at the following
Present state of Nigerian solid mineral exploration
Available solid minerals In Nigeria
Commercial value of the minerals
Government policies on Nigerian solid minerals
How to involve in the exploration of Nigerian solid minerals
Prospects for Investors In Nigerian solid mineral exploration
Held after the markets close in Sydney and over lunch in Mlisten to presentations by ASX listed companies followed by complimentary networking drinks. These events provide attendees with one of Australia's best opportunities to network with high-level representatives from both the resources industry, and the finance and investment communities.
Objective Capital Rare Earths, Speciality and Minor Metals Investment Summit
Focus on rare earths projects around the world
A diversified exposure – rare earths, niobium & zirconium
18 March 2010
by Ian Chalmers, Alkane Resources
2015 Broken Hill Resources Investment Symposium - Julian MalnicSymposium
"Innovating a future in minerals. How to think about the challenges".
Julian Malnic, Chairman Sydney Mining Club and Director NanoCarbon and Deep Space industries.
Investor presentation at 2015 Broken Hill Resources Investment symposium.
Exploration and discovery: Do frameworks and organisation matter?John Sykes
Framing business complexity in exploration:
First, some things around risk & value complexities…..
Then, some thinking around everyday frameworks and standards…..
Some thoughts on a framework for project-level complexity…
And a simple example: The Sinclair Zone Cesium Mine, Western Australia
Finally, the exploration organisation study that keeps on giving…
A global overview of the geology and economics of lithium productionJohn Sykes
Lithium demand is growing fast, driven by a wide range of battery applications, which are in turn changing the structure of
demand, the lithium supply chain and potentially raw material requirements though much still remains uncertain;
•
Geologically ‘brine’ salars and ‘hard rock’ pegmatites remain the most important lithium deposit types in terms of
production and undeveloped resources, however, there are some interesting emerging sedimentary / clay deposits and
unconventional brine concepts and lithium remains very ‘under explored’ globally;
•
Spodumene pegmatites in Australia are the fastest growing source of supply, however, long term competitiveness may be
dependent on successful downstream integration targeting the battery industry;
•
The concept of a Western Australian ‘Lithium Valley’ is possible, despite high costs, due to the number of quality mines,
proximity to Asia, and the unit reduction in freight costs associated with the low grade spodumene concentrate , in addition
to the ‘cluster effect’ of many minerals businesses, specialists and students;
•
The ‘green’ association of lithium use presents a challenge of ‘strategic coherence’ to explorers and miners impacting
decisions around exploration, mining, investors, stakeholders, and leadership;
•
But remember, we are in an unsustainable ‘lithium boom’ of high prices and high volume growth future long term growth
of the industry is reliant on structurally lower prices, and thus structurally lower costs.
Australia's advantage on the periodic table and the significance of emerging ...John Sykes
Opportunities are not equal
Some nearer ‘break out’ than others fewer solutions
required
Some challenges are more ‘resolvable’ than others
Some ‘break outs’ will be bigger than others
Key is to focus on those ‘near breakout’ with resolvable (i.e.
technical, geological) issues, and that have a big pay off
My PhD Or: How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining Or: Using Scenarios...John Sykes
Explorers, exploration teams, and exploration companies will require a broader skill set in the future including:
• a better philosophical understanding of the nature of exploration and discovery
• better understanding of the cognitive processes involved in exploration and discovery;
• developing strategies and capabilities to effectively enter emerging commodity markets;
• building a diverse exploration culture to bring in ideas from other industries and disciplines;
• switching from a focus on economic value to shared value;
• developing a stronger innovation and technology culture;
• encouraging creativity and ideation;
• linking short and long term thinking;
• improving the image of exploration;
• monitoring local and global socio political, economic and technological trends and
• measuring and understanding the potential impact of these trends;
• encouraging a collective approach to ‘big exploration’.
Perhaps with these capabilities we can resolve the ‘discovery constraint’ on the minerals industry.
Australian gold in 40-years: The need for greenfields explorationJohn Sykes
1. Landmark report looks out 40 years critically includes the impact of resource quality, exploration, and uncertainty;
2. Over the short term (<5 years) production will be dominated by existing mines;
3. Over the medium term (5 10 years) production will come from new mines based on known deposits, however, it is not enough to offset the decline (mainly due to ‘quality’ issues);
4. In the long term (10 40 years) exploration success will play a major role in overcoming much of the looming shortfall in gold production…
5. Consequently, in forty years time almost all of Australia’s future gold production will come from exploration successes…
6. ...even so, production and revenues are set to fall by half over the next 40
7. Also note that in 13 years half of Australia’s gold production will come from mines that are yet to be discovered…
8. …but the weighted average delay between discovery and development is also 13 years
9. For the gold industry to maintain production at current levels over the longer term, it will either need to double the amount spent on exploration or double its discovery performance
10. And finally, with sensitivity studies indicating each additional dollar spent on exploration (over the next ten years) generates extra revenue of ~$11.40 over the next 40 years there is incentive for both industry and government to further invest in gold exploration!
A Mining and Exploration Industry Perspective on the Energy TransitionJohn Sykes
The transition to renewable energy from fossil fuels will both fundamentally change the structure of minerals demand, and the process of mining. The mining and exploration sector in its current form may struggle to re-align mineral production to match these new demand patterns, whilst at the same time undergoing a significant shift in production technology.
The ‘CET Scenarios’ Programme was established to investigate structural discontinuities, of this kind, in the future of mining. One discontinuity investigated was the energy transition. Two scenarios were developed: one involving a voluntary and complete energy transition driven by industrial innovation and framed by concerns over sustainable development (‘Wonderland’); and another with a forced and partial energy transition driven by government and framed by geopolitical (strategic) concerns over raw materials security (‘1984’).
Following the development of the scenarios further research was conducted into the interaction of the mining and exploration sector with the energy transition, sustainable development and resource security, with the aim of better informing corporate strategy.
The strategic recommendations to the mining and exploration sector for re-aligning with changing, but unknown minerals demand patterns, and exploration and production technologies, included techniques for monitoring ‘progress in transition’, ‘horizon scanning’, market analysis, capabilities analysis, and ensuring strategic coherence.
An emphasis was placed on developing creative, social, adaptable and varied thinking skills amongst mining and exploration sector professionals and researchers.
NOTE: This presentation was made in 2018 not 2011!!!
Strategic Thinking About Long-Term 'Above Ground' Orebody Complexity Using Sc...John Sykes
AIMS:
1. Explain what is wrong with strategic planning and why we need scenarios;
2. Explain what scenarios are (and their many variants);
3. Show an example of a scenarios programme: the CET ‘Future of Exploration’ Scenarios
4. MAIN FOCUS: Discuss the benefits of scenarios as a strategic thinking tool
Graphite mining and the energy transition - Sykes - Nov 2017 - MinEx ConsultingJohn Sykes
This presentation is also available on the MinEx Consulting website, along with a number of other detailed presentations on minerals exploration. All are free to download: http://www.minexconsulting.com/publications/nov2017.html
Business of greenfields exploration - Sykes & Trench - Apr 2017 - Centre for ...
Defining The Future Of Tin Mining - Apr 2012 - Greenfields Research
1. Defining the future of tin mining
ITRI International Tin Conference, Cape Town – South Africa, 25 April 2012
John P. Sykes – Director, Greenfields Research Ltd
2. Defining the future of tin mining
Contents
1 Mine type: costly alluvial production
2 Geography: decline in Asia
3 By-products: dependent on other riches
4 Company type: dealing with capital costs
5 Conclusions: identifying competitive new tin supply
3. Defining the tin mine of the future
Mine type – costly alluvial
production
4. Alluvial and artisanal important for tin
mining in contrast to other base metals
Images: Greenfields Research
5. Alluvial & artisanal mining dominate
marginal production
Hard rock Alluvial Artisanal (non-alluvial)
2012 Q1 Tin Cash Price
293,100t (est.)
Data: ITRI/Greenfields Research
6. Hard or soft: Grade is king!
Mining Processing Other
Approximate
grade of S.E.
Asian alluvial ores
Theoretical change in cost due to changes in ore grade for a primary tin,
alluvial mine in Indonesia, producing 7,500 tonnes of tin per year, from a
team of gravel pumps, with a 100% recovery.
Data: ITRI/Greenfields Research
7. Hard or soft: Grade is king!
Mining Processing Approximate grade
of new hard rock
Other projects
Open pit mine is a theoretical primary tin, open pit mine in Australia, producing 7,500
tonnes of tin per year, with a processing recovery of 75%.
Underground mine is a theoretical primary tin, underground mine in Australia,
producing 7,500 tonnes of tin per year, with a processing recovery of 75%.
Data: ITRI/Greenfields Research
8. Alluvial mining vulnerable to oil prices
Fuel Electricity Labour Other
Vulnerable to labour
costs
Theoretical cost breakdown for a primary tin, alluvial mine in Indonesia grading 0.215kg/m3,
Vulnerable to fuel costs producing 7,500 tonnes of tin per year, from a team of gravel pumps, with a 100% recovery.
Theoretical cost breakdown for a primary tin, underground mine in Australia grading 1.700%,
producing 7,500 tonnes of tin per year, with a 75% recovery.
Theoretical cost breakdown for a primary tin, open pit mine in Australia grading 0.490%,
producing 7,500 tonnes of tin per year, with a 75% recovery.
Data: ITRI/Greenfields Research
9. Alluvial & artisanal mining in decline
Hard rock Alluvial Artisanal (non-alluvial)
341,400t (est.)
Data: ITRI/Greenfields Research
11. Asian countries dominate production,
very few developed world tin miners
World Tin Mine Production (2012 est.)
Data: ITRI/Greenfields Research
12. Marginal alluvial and artisanal mining
in Asia & South America vulnerable
Asia South America
Africa Europe/Russia
Australasia
293,100t (est.)
Data: ITRI/Greenfields Research
14. Developed nations a safer investment,
important for large capital projects
Country Ranking (of 181) Country Ranking (of 181)
Canada 4th Peru 56th
Australia 5th - -
- - China 71st
USA 10th Brazil 72nd
- - - -
Germany 20th Indonesia 111th
- - - -
UK 25th Bolivia 125th
- - - -
Spain 27th DR Congo 159th
Rankings based on Greenfields Research’s proprietary mining political risk ranking system. The ranking system correlates economic data sets that cover
most of the world’s countries (such as the Transparency International Corruption Index, the World Bank Doing Business dataset and GDP/land area)
with well known mining industry political risk surveys, including the Fraser Institute, Behre Dolbear and ResourceStocks, to get a system which ranks all
countries by their suitability for mining, not just those in the mining industry surveys.
Data: Greenfields Research
15. Exchange rates important, a stronger
Rupiah raises marginal costs
IDR8,000:USD1.00
IDR10,000:USD1.00
IDR12,000:USD1.00
312,600t (est.)
Data: ITRI/Greenfields Research
16. Asian mining in decline, replaced by
developed world production
World Tin Mine Production (2017 est.)
Data: ITRI/Greenfields Research
17. More developed world production
coming on-stream
Asia South America
Africa North America
Australasia Europe & Russia
341,400t (est.)
Data: ITRI/Greenfields Research
19. Tin mining is dependent on a wide
variety of by-products
World Tin Mine By-Products (2012 est.)
Antimony Copper Gallium Indium Lead
China Australia & China China China China
Niobium Silver Tantalum Tungsten Zinc
Brazil, Burundi, China Burundi, Congo, Egypt, Mongolia, Bolivia, China
Nigeria Rwanda Myanmar
Data: ITRI/Greenfields Research
Images: Shutterstock, www.csksg.com, www.tradekorea.com,
www.cdves.com, American Elements, Wikipedia
20. By-products complicate economics
None Tungsten Other
Copper Zinc
Tantalum Polymetallic
293,100t (est.)
Data: ITRI/Greenfields Research
21. Tin industry uneconomic without by-
products
Cash Cost
NBP Cash Cost
293,100t (est.)
Data: ITRI/Greenfields Research
22. Tin mining will become more
dependent on by-products
World Tin Mine By-Products (2012 est.)
Antimony Copper Gallium Indium Iron Ore Lead Molybdenum Niobium
China Australia, China, Australia, Australia, China Canada Brazil,
China, Germany Canada, China, Kazakhstan Burundi,
Germany, Germany Nigeria
Kazakhstan,
Peru, UK
Silver Tantalum Titanium Tungsten Zinc Zirconium
Australia, Canada, Australia, Burundi, Kazakhstan Australia, Canada, Australia, Bolivia, Brazil
China, Kazakhstan, Congo, Egypt, Egypt, Kazakhstan, Canada, China,
USA Kazakhstan, Rwanda Mongolia, Germany, UK,
Myanmar, Portugal, USA
Russia, Spain, UK,
USA
Data: ITRI/Greenfields Research
Images: Shutterstock, www.csksg.com, www.tradekorea.com,
www.cdves.com, American Elements, Wikipedia, www.made-in-china.com
25. Dominated by small, private
companies and state miners
~44,000t, 15%, ~38,500t, 13%, ~27,750t, 9.5%,
Private/Public, Peru State/Public, Indonesia State/Public, China
~10,000t, 3.5%, ~7,000t, 2.4%, ~6,750t, 2.3%,
State, Bolivia Private, China Public, Australia
~5,000t, 1.7%, ~3,500t, 1.2%, ~2,500t, 0.9%, ~2,500t, 0.9%,
Public, Indonesia State, Vietnam Public, Bolivia Private, China
Data: ITRI/Greenfields Research
Images: Company websites, ITRI, Wikipedia
27. Financing adds to operating costs,
bigger companies may be required
NBP Full Cost
NBP Cash Cost
293,100t (est.)
Data: ITRI/Greenfields Research
28. Substantial investment required in new
tin supply, bigger companies required
Company Project Capex Capacity Capex Source
(US$M) (t/y Sn) (US$/t/y)
Stellar Resources Heemskirk 108.0 3,900 27,700 Scoping 2011
Venture Minerals Mount Lindsay 144.6* 3,700 39,100 PFS 2011
Kasbah Resources Achmmach 85.3 5,600 15,200 Scoping 2010
Metals X Rentails 173.2 5,300 32,700 Feasibility 2009
Total & average 511.1 18,500 27,629
Total new mine supply required 2011-15: 70,000t/y
Average capital cost per tonne new capacity: $27,500
Total investment required in new supply: $1.925 B
* Mount Lindsay is a tin-tungsten-magnetite project. The tungsten
plant in particular greatly adds to capital costs.
Data: ITRI/Greenfields Research
29. Increasing role for public listed
companies and larger companies
Private
Public
State
341,400t (est.)
Data: ITRI/Greenfields Research
30. Defining the future of tin mining
Conclusions – identifying future
competitive tin supply
31. New supply will have to enter the cost
curve lower than marginal alluvials
Operating (2012) Greyfields Brownfields
Greenfields
New projects need to
enter the cost curve
here!
341,400t (est.)
These projects
currently
uneconomic
Data: ITRI/Greenfields Research
32. Absorbing capital costs will be a
challenge for the industry
Operating (2012)
Brownfields
Greenfields
Greyfields
341,400t (est.)
Data: ITRI/Greenfields Research
33. Defining the future of tin mining
Conclusions
1 Alluvial tin supply falling to be replaced by hard rock mining.
2 Declining Asian mining, opportunities elsewhere in the world.
3 Increasing reliance on by-products as grades decline.
4 Future supply will have much higher capital costs.
BUT new mines have to be lower cost than marginal alluvial
5
mines.
34. Contact Details:
John P. Sykes
Director, Greenfields Research
john.sykes@greenfieldsresearch.com
www.greenfieldsresearch.com