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The Ohio Centrist's Case for Obama
- 1. Dear Ohio Voters, Aspopular as we are right now, with all the campaign ads and media spin, it’s hard to know the facts in 2012. One Ohio voter took a look at the data on issues that haven’t gotten much press lately.
- 2. Agenda These charts will attempt to show that 1. Sustainable economic renewal contrary to a lot of what The stimulus was critical, and the economy is we hear, there’s a strong recovering with minimal new regulations. argument that the Obama Administration 2. Limited but effective government has practiced Taxes, like welfare rolls, are at historical lows, and government growth is slowing. fiscal responsibility. 3. Long-term deficit reduction One deficit reduction act signed, one pending … plus healthcare cost control. It’s a start. “Play Me, I’m Yours,” Cincinnati, © JB 2012
- 3. Sustainable economic renewal The US economy continues to The 2009-2010 federal stimulus recover from the most severe provided a critical piece of the recovery at a time of need … recession in 75 years. US private job growth by month While still slow by historical Private non-farm payrolls, seasonally adjusted standards, US growth is among the President Obama highest in the industrialized world. inaugurated Q2 2012 GDP Growth Rates 3 New Q3 data – 2.0% % change in GDP (annualized) 2 1 0 -1 Italy UK France Japan Germany US -2 Federal stimulus enacted -3 -4 Source: OECD quarterly national accounts: http://www.oecd.org/std/oecdfrequentlyrequestedstatistics.htm#GDP Department of the Treasury & Bureau of Labor Statistics: http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/documents/20120229_essentialecon.pdf
- 4. Sustainable economic renewal The effective, short-term Jobs and revenue saved – stimulus helped save the US CBO estimates from a deeper recession ... Agreement examples State governors from both parties lobbied heavily for stimulus funds to save their states from mass layoffs “ I think it was the responsible and right thing to do … in Florida alone, for example, it created or maintained at least 87,000 jobs. ” - Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) - 2010 Source: New York Times; http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/01/31/republican-governors-urge-congress-pass-stimulus/
- 5. Sustainable economic renewal …with a composition weighted heavily toward tax cuts, infrastructure improvements to improve competitiveness, and critical aid to states. American Society of Civil “ We have big problems with deficits and debt Engineers 2012 grade on … but those problems would be completely overwhelming if not for the government's US infrastructure – D aggressive reaction to the crisis. ” - Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics Source: http://economyleague.org/node/1157 http://www.philly.com/philly/opinion/20120923_Yes__stimulus_was_the_right_move.html
- 6. Sustainable economic renewal The Obama Administration has “ Obama’s White House has approved passed regulations in quantity fewer regulations than his predecessor George W. Bush at this and impact similar to those of same point in their tenures, and the recent administrations ... estimated costs of those rules haven’t reached the annual peak set Est. annual cost* of new federal regulations Constant 2011 dollars in fiscal 1992 under Bush’s father. ” - Bloomberg News $B 25 *Cost estimates do not include potential benefits from public/worker health and 20 safety, which may be many times greater 15 10 Max Obama Obama Adminstration costs include 5 Annual average, 1981-2008 Min Obama regulations from post-crash 0 Dodd-Frank financial reform and 2009 1988 - Reagan 1992 - Bush Obama 2009-2011 Affordable Care Act (ObamaCare) average Source: Bloomberg News analysis of Office of Management and Budget data http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-25/obama-wrote-5-fewer-rules-than-bush-while-costing-business.html
- 7. Limited but effectivegovernment The recession and unemployment triggered automatic increases in government spending for assistance. The Obama Administration temporarily increased benefits with two goals: keep Americans out of poverty and stimulate economic recovery. Cincinnati skyline and Ohio River, 2012
- 8. Limited but effectivegovernment Federal and state response to the deep recession temporarily and automatically increased nutritional assistance ... Monthly Average monthly TANF (welfare Participants, Supplemental payment) recipients Nutrition Assistance Program 50 (Food Stamps) 50 40 40 Millions Millions 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 … while welfare rolls have … most of which benefits barely budged … children, elderly, and disabled individuals … Source: Department of Health and Human Services, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, Department of Agriculture
- 9. Limited but effectivegovernment … with little to no change from … and the automatic food stamp the Obama Administration for increase projected to decline back to benefits … historical levels with economic renewal. Monthly benefit per household 2008 2011 SNAP (food stamps) US average $227 $284 Ohio TANF (welfare payments) max* $410 $434 *Maximum available benefit for family of 3 Source: Department of Health and Human Services, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, Department of Agriculture
- 10. Limited but effectivegovernment US income tax rates, top bracket (%) US income taxes are at 100.0% historically low rates … 80.0% 60.0% … with top marginal income 40.0% tax rates far lower than in 20.0% decades past … 0.0% 1913 1917 1921 1925 1929 1933 1937 1941 1945 1949 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 … and low effective corporate tax rates when deductions are factored in … Source: Tax Policy Center: http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxfacts/displayafact.cfm?Docid=213; OECD, US Treasury
- 11. Limited but effectivegovernment … as total US federal and state tax revenues take one of the smallest bites out of the economy in the “ The truth of the matter is that industrialized world … federal taxes in the United States are very low. There is Total tax revenue as share of GDP (2007) Federal and state total collections no reason to believe that Denmark reducing them further will do Sweden Italy anything to raise growth or France Spain reduce unemployment. ” United Kingdom Germany OECD Total Canada - Bruce Bartlett Australia Economic Adviser to Pres. Reagan Japan United States May 2011 Korea Mexico 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Source: CBPP, OECD, http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/31/are-taxes-in-the-u-s-high-or-low/ http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/09/tax-cuts-dont-lead-to-economic-growth-a-new-65-year-study-finds/262438/
- 12. Limited but effectivegovernment Federal spending & employment 3000 3500 Federal Census workers employment $T Federal Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment 3000 Thousands of federal government employees 2500 2500 … with reduced basic 2000 expenditures and Govermnent Bush Obama expenditures 2000 basically flat government 1500 Admin. Admin. & gross 1500 employment under the investment Obama Administration … 1000 (excludes 1000 transfer 500 payments) 500 Constant 2005 dollars, average annualized quarterly rate 0 0 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Economic Data: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
- 13. Limited but effectivegovernment (Includes transfer payments) MarketWatch Analysis – Dow Jones/Wall Street Journal … and slower federal spending growth overall, even when accounting for the stimulus and entitlement spending. Source: http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012-05-22/commentary/31802270_1_spending-federal-budget-drunken-sailor http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2012/may/23/facebook-posts/viral-facebook-post-says-barack-obama-has-lowest-s/
- 14. Long-term deficit reduction Low taxes plus a massive drop in tax receipts made growing government deficits worse, adding each year to total US debt. These deficits have declined slightly under the Obama Administration and will continue to shrink … but additional long-term deficit reduction is critical. Fountain Square, Cincinnati
- 15. Long-term deficit reduction Thefederal deficit was projected to hit at least $1.2 trillion in 2009 before President Obama took office, as tax revenues collapsed. Emergency stimulus measures slightly increased the deficit in 2009-2011 but likely helped the economy recover faster, reducing future deficits. The largest contributors to the deficit are previous tax cuts, military spending, and recent economic events… Source: CBPP; http://money.cnn.com/2012/06/22/news/economy/obama-spending/index.htm
- 16. Long-term deficit reduction Net public debt as % of GDP (2011) Total gov’t debt net of intragovernmental liabilities While current borrowing has not 250% created a short-term crisis, with 200% 150% US debt compared to the total 100% economy still manageable, and 50% yields we pay on new debt 0% historically low … US Germany France UK Italy Japan Projected federal expenditures as % of GDP … the structural deficit still poses a long-term challenge, especially in terms of health care spending … Source: CIA World Factbook (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2186rank.html) Bipartisan Policy Center analysis of CBO data (http://bipartisanpolicy.org/blog/2012/02/twelve-takeaways-cbo’s-2012-budget-and-economic-outlook)
- 17. Long-term deficit reduction PresidentObama signed the Budget Control Act in 2011 in an agreement with Congressional Republicans enacting nearly $1 trillion in spending cuts over 10 years … … consistent with recommendations of the bipartisan Bowles-Simpson deficit reduction committee. The Obama Administration has proposed a Living Within Our Means and Investing in second plan targeting an additional $2-3 the Future: The President’s Plan for trillion in 10-year deficit reduction. Economic Growth and Deficit Reduction Source: http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=3844 http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2012/oct/04/barack-obama/obama-says-he-will-cut-deficits-4-trillion/
- 18. Long-term deficit reduction The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (“ObamaCare”) is designed to rein in the future cost of healthcare … With a market-driven solution and subsidies, but no new government plan, requiring personal responsibility … “ It’s the ultimate conservative idea, which is that people have responsibility for their own care. ” … not relying on local governments and “ Essential for bringing the health care costs providers for services to the uninsured down for everyone. ” that drive up taxes and premiums … at - Massachussetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) on the a cost of $73 billion (2008). MA Health Care Insurance Reform Law (2006) mandate Source: Boston Globe; http://www.familiesusa.org/resources/publications/reports/hidden-health-tax-findings.html http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/06/24/11-facts-about-the-affordable-care-act/
- 19. Thank you andremember to vote! “ Whenever the people are Non-partisan voting and candidate information: well-informed, they can be League of Women Voters Ohio Votes trusted with their own Ohio Secretary of State government. ” - Thomas Jefferson Near Hocking Hills, Ohio