Data Science for Improved Epidemic Outbreak Response by Quirine Ten Bosch, Postdoctoral Researcher in Infectious Disease Modeling @ Institut Pasteur Abstract : With increased global connectivity, rapid urbanization, and changing climates come new challenges to preventing and responding to infectious disease outbreaks. Data-driven mathematical modelling forms an important component to mitigating these threats. I will give a short overview of how data science has become an essential part in public health response, with examples from the Ebola, Zika, and most recently, the Plague in Madagascar.

1. Data Science for Improved Epidemic
Outbreak Response
Quirine ten Bosch
Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur
@QuirineTB qtenbosc@pasteur.fr

2. My academic life in infectious diseases
Figure credits; Oakridge National lab, Laura Ulrich

3. Acknowledgements
Funding: USAID, LABEX IBEID,
AXA research fund, NIGMS MIDAS

4. The grim past of infectious diseases

5. ‘By the end of the Second World War it was
possible to say that almost all of the major
practical problems of dealing with infectious
disease had been solved.’
(Sir McFarland Burnett, 1962)
And its glorious future....

6. And its challenging future
Pandemic influenza
Foot and Mouth Disease
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
26-Feb
12-Mar
26-Mar
9-Apr
23-Apr
7-May
Dailyincidence
SARS
Hong Kong 2003
SARS Ebola
ZikaHIV-AIDS
And many, many more....

7. Data have always been essential to understanding
and controlling epidemics

8. Data have always been essential to understanding
and controlling epidemics
Cricket Magazine, November 2003

9. And so have mathematics
Sir Ronald Ross, 1908

10. S I R
b.S.I g.I
. .
. . .
.
S t S I
I t S I I
R t I
b
b g
g
   

   
   
And so have mathematics
Kermack and McKendrick, 1927

11. With increase in available data and computational
power came … increase in model complexity,
(Ferguson et al, Nature 2005)
S I R
b.S.I g.I

12. Zoonotic viruses – clusters
of human cases
SARS – contact tracing
data
Outbreak data are diverse, incomplete with complex
dynamics and no straightforward interpretation.
… new statistical challenges,

13. Epidemiological data
Human mobility Social interactions
Humans
Antigenic maps Genetic sequences
The virus
The climate and the environment
Environmental typologyTemperatures
Vector suitability
maps
The vector
Vector control
… data integration,

14. … an increasing role for data science to support
outbreak response - ZIKA
How many infections do we
expect among childbearing
women?
(Perkins et al,
Nature Microbiology 2016)
How many ventilators will be
required?
Where to plan vaccine
trials?
(Andronico et al,
American J of Epidemiology
2017)
(Ascher et al,
bioRxivs 2017)
No.ofGBScasesonVentilation
Week in 2013-2014

15. … an increasing role for data science to support
outbreak response - PLAGUE
Short term
predictions
…...
…...
…...
…...
NumberofcasesR
Maxreduction(%)
Isolation
Prophylaxis
Impact of
interventions
Test characteristics
and total burden of the
outbreak
days

16. … and a new philosophy
• Data sharing in outbreak situations
• Fast dissemination of results
• Crowd sourcing
• Sharing codes and software

17. Thank you!
@QuirineTB qtenbosc@pasteur.fr