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Social Hackers
generate random number        RNC

            RNC
                             client_hello (crypto information,     RNC    )
                                                                              RNC

                                                                                                Phase 1
                                     generate random number         RNS

                                                                              RNC   RNS
                             server_hello (crypto information,     RNS    )
      RNS   RNC




                                     server certificate

                                 demand client certificate
                                                                                                Phase 2

                   check server certificate
      RNS   RNC




                                     client certificate


                                                check client certificate

                  client certificate (encrypted with Private Key Client)


                                    check encrypted client certificate                          Phase 3
                                                                              RNC   RNS
                  generate random number pre-master-secret           PMS

PMS   RNS   RNC
                      send    PMS   encrypted with public key server
                                                                              RNC   RNS   PMS



                    calculate Master-Secret with       PMS   RNS   RNC

      MS                                                                            MS


                  change to encrpted connection with         MS     as key

                                    end SSL handshake
                                                                                                Phase 4
                  change to encrpted connection with         MS    as key

                                    end SSL handshake
D. Purves
D. Purves
D. Purves
Memento Mori
A FEW EXAMPLES
% of drivers donating organs




                                                0
                                                         20
                                                              40
                                                                         60
                                                                              80
                                                                                   100


                                 De




                                                4




Johnson & Goldstein (2003)
                                    nm
                                        ark
                              Ne
                                 the




                                                     28
                                     rlan
                         Un               ds
                            ited



                                                    17
                                 Kin
                                      gdo
                                          m
                                 Ger
                                                12
                                      ma
                                         ny
                                   Au
                                                                   100




                                       stri
                                            a
                                  Bel
                                                                   98




                                      giu
                                          m
                                   Fra
                                                                   100




                                        nce
                                 Hu
                                                                   100




                                     nga
                                          ry
                                   Pol
                                                                   100




                                        and
                                                                                         Organ donations?




                                  Por
                                                                   100




                                      tug
                                          al
                                  Sw
                                                              86




                                       ede
                                           n
Check the box if you want to
participate in the organ donor program
n ’t join
                           - an d do
       Check the box if you want to
                            ox -
                    s th eb
   participatecheck organ donor program
               in the
          do n ’t
peo ple
n ’t join
                             - an d do
       Check the box if you want to
                            ox -
                    s th eb
   participatecheck organ donor program
               in the
          do n ’t
peo ple




    Check the box if you don’t want to
   participate in the organ donor program
n ’t join
                            - an d do
       Check the box if you want to
                            ox -
                    s th eb
   participatecheck organ donor program
               in the
          do n ’t
peo ple




                                 nd join
                                 a
                               --want to
                           box
    Check the box if youedon’t
                   ecks th
   participate’t ch organ donor program
               in the
      ple don
  peo
Opt-in                                      n ’t join
                                - an d do
           Check the box if you want to
                                ox -
                        s th eb
       participatecheck organ donor program
                   in the
              do n ’t
    peo ple



Opt-out                              nd join
                                     a
                                   --want to
                               box
        Check the box if youedon’t
                       ecks th
       participate’t ch organ donor program
                   in the
          ple don
      peo
What about professionals?




Redelmeier & Shafir (1995)
What about professionals?




Redelmeier & Shafir (1995)
What about professionals?




                                      ?


Redelmeier & Shafir (1995)
What about professionals?




Redelmeier & Shafir (1995)
What about professionals?




Redelmeier & Shafir (1995)
What about professionals?




                             ?


Redelmeier & Shafir (1995)
What about professionals?




Redelmeier & Shafir (1995)
The Jam study




Iyengar & Lepper (2000)
The Jam study
                          6 jams   24 jams

         Approach         40%       60%

                 Try       1.4       1.5

                Buy       30%       3%

Iyengar & Lepper (2000)
The Jam study
                          6 jams   24 jams

         Approach         40%       60%

                 Try       1.4       1.5

                Buy       30%       3%

Iyengar & Lepper (2000)
The Jam study
                          6 jams   24 jams

         Approach         40%       60%

                 Try       1.4       1.5

                Buy       30%       3%

Iyengar & Lepper (2000)
The Jam study
                          6 jams   24 jams

         Approach         40%       60%

                 Try       1.4       1.5

                Buy       30%       3%

Iyengar & Lepper (2000)
The Jam study
                          6 jams   24 jams

         Approach         40%       60%

                 Try       1.4       1.5

                Buy       30%       3%

Iyengar & Lepper (2000)
The Jam study
                          6 jams   24 jams

         Approach         40%       60%

                 Try       1.4       1.5

                Buy       30%       3%

Iyengar & Lepper (2000)
Airline-X

• A large Airline is trying to get customers to
  purchase flight tickets with more benefits
  (miles, drinks, seating priority, etc) for more
  money.
3 Choices
3 Choices
3 Choices



How can you get people to pick the
 the one with the most benefits?
Please think!
Break the matrix

• Make it into a 2 step process
• 1 - Pick your time of day
• 2 - Pick the level of benefits
• But …..
• But …
• 1 - Make the highest level the default choice
• 2 - Define the change in benefits as a loss
  (you give up miles, give up drink, you give up
  the ability to take you seat first etc)
Answer the following:
Answer the following:

 Please write 3 reasons Please write 10 reasons
  why you love your       why you love your
    significant other       significant other




 Please write 3 reasons Please write 10 reasons
    to buy a BMW            to buy a BMW
Answer the following:

 Please write 3 reasons Please write 10 reasons
  why you love your       why you love your
    significant other       significant other




 Please write 3 reasons Please write 10 reasons
    to buy a BMW            to buy a BMW
How often do you floss?
How often do you floss?

  A day:
           0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9 >9
How often do you floss?

  A day:
           0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9 >9




A month:
           0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9 >9
How often do you floss?

  A day:
           0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9 >9




A month:
           0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9 >9
How often do you floss?

  A day:
           0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9 >9




A month:
           0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9 >9
How often do you floss?

  A day:
           0 1 2 3 4           5   6   7   8   9 >9
    “I am below the norm”




A month:
           0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9 >9
How often do you floss?

  A day:
           0 1 2 3 4           5   6    7   8   9 >9
    “I am below the norm”




                                   “I am above the norm”

A month:
           0   1   2   3   4   5    6   7   8   9 >9
How often do you floss?

  A day:
            0 1 2 3 4           5   6    7   8   9 >9
     “I am below the norm”


 Should you call the dentist to make an appointment?


                                    “I am above the norm”

A month:
            0   1   2   3   4   5    6   7   8   9 >9
How often do you floss?

  A day:
            0 1 2 3 4           5   6    7   8   9 >9
     “I am below the norm”
          “Call now”

 Should you call the dentist to make an appointment?


                                    “I am above the norm”

A month:
            0   1   2   3   4   5    6   7   8   9 >9
How often do you floss?

  A day:
            0 1 2 3 4           5   6    7   8   9 >9
     “I am below the norm”
          “Call now”

 Should you call the dentist to make an appointment?

                                        “No need to call”
                                    “I am above the norm”

A month:
            0   1   2   3   4   5    6   7   8   9 >9
Asymmetric dominance


 Attribute 1




               Attribute 2
Asymmetric dominance


 Attribute 1   R




               Attribute 2
Asymmetric dominance


 Attribute 1   R

                       P

               Attribute 2
Asymmetric dominance


 Attribute 1     R
               R-
                         P

                 Attribute 2
Asymmetric dominance


 Attribute 1     R
               R-
                         P

                 Attribute 2
Asymmetric dominance


 Attribute 1   R

                         P
                    P-
               Attribute 2
16%

0%
84%
16%

0%
84%
16%   68%

0%
84%   32%
Tom   Jerry
Form A
Tom   Jerry -   Jerry
Form A
Tom   Jerry -   Jerry
Form A




         Tom             Jerry
Form B
Tom   Jerry -   Jerry
Form A




         Tom   Tom -     Jerry
Form B
Tom    Jerry -       ♥
                            Jerry
Form A                      ♥ ♥
                            ♥  ♥
                            ♥ ♥♥
          Tom♥   Tom -      Jerry
         ♥ ♥
Form B




         ♥     ♥
         ♥ ♥♥
The value of 1st decisions
How should people
decide about buying a
    cup of coffee?
What is the self herding
version of these decisions?
Auctions of real products
Auctions of real products
                     Mean value   Low ss#   High ss#   Increase
 Trackball             16.25       10.38     21.52      107%
 Keyboard              32.47       21.81     42.03      93%
  $9 wine              15.80       11.62     19.55      68%
 $82 wine              22.89       17.42     27.76      59%
Design book            18.81       14.15     23.00      62%
Belgian Chocolates     13.31       10.04     16.24      62%
Auctions of real products
                     Mean value   Low ss#   High ss#   Increase
 Trackball             16.25       10.38     21.52      107%
 Keyboard              32.47       21.81     42.03      93%
  $9 wine              15.80       11.62     19.55      68%
 $82 wine              22.89       17.42     27.76      59%
Design book            18.81       14.15     23.00      62%
Belgian Chocolates     13.31       10.04     16.24      62%
Auctions of real products
                     Mean value   Low ss#   High ss#   Increase
 Trackball             16.25       10.38     21.52      107%
 Keyboard              32.47       21.81     42.03      93%
  $9 wine              15.80       11.62     19.55      68%
 $82 wine              22.89       17.42     27.76      59%
Design book            18.81       14.15     23.00      62%
Belgian Chocolates     13.31       10.04     16.24      62%
Auctions of real products
                     Mean value   Low ss#   High ss#   Increase
 Trackball             16.25       10.38     21.52      107%
 Keyboard              32.47       21.81     42.03      93%
  $9 wine              15.80       11.62     19.55      68%
 $82 wine              22.89       17.42     27.76      59%
Design book            18.81       14.15     23.00      62%
Belgian Chocolates     13.31       10.04     16.24      62%
Auctions of real products
                     Mean value   Low ss#   High ss#   Increase
 Trackball             16.25       10.38     21.52      107%
 Keyboard              32.47       21.81     42.03      93%
  $9 wine              15.80       11.62     19.55      68%
 $82 wine              22.89       17.42     27.76      59%
Design book            18.81       14.15     23.00      62%
Belgian Chocolates     13.31       10.04     16.24      62%
Auctions of real products
                     Mean value   Low ss#   High ss#   Increase
 Trackball             16.25       10.38     21.52      107%
 Keyboard              32.47       21.81     42.03      93%
  $9 wine              15.80       11.62     19.55      68%
 $82 wine              22.89       17.42     27.76      59%
Design book            18.81       14.15     23.00      62%
Belgian Chocolates     13.31       10.04     16.24      62%


  High dependency between the prices of the
  2 wines and 2 computer accessories
Tom Sawyer
???
Arbitrary Coherence ...
Just because you’ve always done it that way
   doesn’t mean it’s not incredibly stupid.
$600
$600
$400
$600
$400




?
$600
$400




?      ?
Internet 0.0
Self control:
 The problem &
How to get over it
Desire




         Now   Next
               week
Desire




         Now   Next
               week
Desire




         Now   Next
               week
Desire




         Now   Next   Next   Year&
               week   year   week
Desire




         Now   Next   Next   Year&
               week   year   week
Importance
Importance
Importance
Importance




Time
Importance




Time
Importance




Time
Importance




               Movies



             Time
Approaches for
 self-control
Approaches for
      self-control

  Reward
substitution
Approaches for
      self-control

  Reward
substitution
               Self-control
                contracts
Delayed gratification & commitment




   1 immediately




                     10 w/ 10sec delay




                                         Ainslie & Herrnstein 1974
Delayed gratification & commitment




✔      1 immediately




                         10 w/ 10sec delay




                                             Ainslie & Herrnstein 1974
Delayed gratification & commitment




                1 immediately




                       10 w/ 10sec delay




                                           Ainslie & Herrnstein 1974
Delayed gratification & commitment




     ✔          1 immediately




                       10 w/ 10sec delay




                                           Ainslie & Herrnstein 1974
Delayed gratification & commitment




                     1 immediately

    No temptation button


                            10 w/ 10sec delay




                                                Ainslie & Herrnstein 1974
Delayed gratification & commitment




                      1 immediately

     No temptation button
 ✔
                             10 w/ 10sec delay




                                                 Ainslie & Herrnstein 1974
Clocky
Clocky
One step further ....
✗
✗
Final words
Standard Economics ...
What a piece of work is a man! how noble in reason!
 how infinite in faculty! in form and moving how
express and admirable! in action how like an angel!
          in apprehension how like a god!


    Will Shakespeare (Act II,scene 2, of Hamlet)
Behavioral Economics ...
    Standard
What a piece of work is a man! how noble in reason!
 how infinite in faculty! in form and moving how
express and admirable! in action how like an angel!
          in apprehension how like a god!


    Will Shakespeare (Act II,scene 2, of Hamlet)
VS.
General lessons
Dan's slides from saturday (3)
Dan's slides from saturday (3)
Dan's slides from saturday (3)

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Dan's slides from saturday (3)

  • 2.
  • 3. generate random number RNC RNC client_hello (crypto information, RNC ) RNC Phase 1 generate random number RNS RNC RNS server_hello (crypto information, RNS ) RNS RNC server certificate demand client certificate Phase 2 check server certificate RNS RNC client certificate check client certificate client certificate (encrypted with Private Key Client) check encrypted client certificate Phase 3 RNC RNS generate random number pre-master-secret PMS PMS RNS RNC send PMS encrypted with public key server RNC RNS PMS calculate Master-Secret with PMS RNS RNC MS MS change to encrpted connection with MS as key end SSL handshake Phase 4 change to encrpted connection with MS as key end SSL handshake
  • 8.
  • 10. % of drivers donating organs 0 20 40 60 80 100 De 4 Johnson & Goldstein (2003) nm ark Ne the 28 rlan Un ds ited 17 Kin gdo m Ger 12 ma ny Au 100 stri a Bel 98 giu m Fra 100 nce Hu 100 nga ry Pol 100 and Organ donations? Por 100 tug al Sw 86 ede n
  • 11.
  • 12. Check the box if you want to participate in the organ donor program
  • 13. n ’t join - an d do Check the box if you want to ox - s th eb participatecheck organ donor program in the do n ’t peo ple
  • 14. n ’t join - an d do Check the box if you want to ox - s th eb participatecheck organ donor program in the do n ’t peo ple Check the box if you don’t want to participate in the organ donor program
  • 15. n ’t join - an d do Check the box if you want to ox - s th eb participatecheck organ donor program in the do n ’t peo ple nd join a --want to box Check the box if youedon’t ecks th participate’t ch organ donor program in the ple don peo
  • 16. Opt-in n ’t join - an d do Check the box if you want to ox - s th eb participatecheck organ donor program in the do n ’t peo ple Opt-out nd join a --want to box Check the box if youedon’t ecks th participate’t ch organ donor program in the ple don peo
  • 17.
  • 20. What about professionals? ? Redelmeier & Shafir (1995)
  • 23. What about professionals? ? Redelmeier & Shafir (1995)
  • 25. The Jam study Iyengar & Lepper (2000)
  • 26. The Jam study 6 jams 24 jams Approach 40% 60% Try 1.4 1.5 Buy 30% 3% Iyengar & Lepper (2000)
  • 27. The Jam study 6 jams 24 jams Approach 40% 60% Try 1.4 1.5 Buy 30% 3% Iyengar & Lepper (2000)
  • 28. The Jam study 6 jams 24 jams Approach 40% 60% Try 1.4 1.5 Buy 30% 3% Iyengar & Lepper (2000)
  • 29. The Jam study 6 jams 24 jams Approach 40% 60% Try 1.4 1.5 Buy 30% 3% Iyengar & Lepper (2000)
  • 30. The Jam study 6 jams 24 jams Approach 40% 60% Try 1.4 1.5 Buy 30% 3% Iyengar & Lepper (2000)
  • 31. The Jam study 6 jams 24 jams Approach 40% 60% Try 1.4 1.5 Buy 30% 3% Iyengar & Lepper (2000)
  • 32.
  • 33. Airline-X • A large Airline is trying to get customers to purchase flight tickets with more benefits (miles, drinks, seating priority, etc) for more money.
  • 34.
  • 35.
  • 37.
  • 39. 3 Choices How can you get people to pick the the one with the most benefits?
  • 41. Break the matrix • Make it into a 2 step process • 1 - Pick your time of day • 2 - Pick the level of benefits • But …..
  • 42. • But … • 1 - Make the highest level the default choice • 2 - Define the change in benefits as a loss (you give up miles, give up drink, you give up the ability to take you seat first etc)
  • 44. Answer the following: Please write 3 reasons Please write 10 reasons why you love your why you love your significant other significant other Please write 3 reasons Please write 10 reasons to buy a BMW to buy a BMW
  • 45. Answer the following: Please write 3 reasons Please write 10 reasons why you love your why you love your significant other significant other Please write 3 reasons Please write 10 reasons to buy a BMW to buy a BMW
  • 46. How often do you floss?
  • 47. How often do you floss? A day: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 >9
  • 48. How often do you floss? A day: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 >9 A month: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 >9
  • 49. How often do you floss? A day: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 >9 A month: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 >9
  • 50. How often do you floss? A day: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 >9 A month: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 >9
  • 51. How often do you floss? A day: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 >9 “I am below the norm” A month: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 >9
  • 52. How often do you floss? A day: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 >9 “I am below the norm” “I am above the norm” A month: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 >9
  • 53. How often do you floss? A day: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 >9 “I am below the norm” Should you call the dentist to make an appointment? “I am above the norm” A month: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 >9
  • 54. How often do you floss? A day: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 >9 “I am below the norm” “Call now” Should you call the dentist to make an appointment? “I am above the norm” A month: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 >9
  • 55. How often do you floss? A day: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 >9 “I am below the norm” “Call now” Should you call the dentist to make an appointment? “No need to call” “I am above the norm” A month: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 >9
  • 56.
  • 59. Asymmetric dominance Attribute 1 R P Attribute 2
  • 60. Asymmetric dominance Attribute 1 R R- P Attribute 2
  • 61. Asymmetric dominance Attribute 1 R R- P Attribute 2
  • 62. Asymmetric dominance Attribute 1 R P P- Attribute 2
  • 63.
  • 64.
  • 65.
  • 66.
  • 67.
  • 70. 16% 68% 0% 84% 32%
  • 71.
  • 72. Tom Jerry Form A
  • 73. Tom Jerry - Jerry Form A
  • 74. Tom Jerry - Jerry Form A Tom Jerry Form B
  • 75. Tom Jerry - Jerry Form A Tom Tom - Jerry Form B
  • 76. Tom Jerry - ♥ Jerry Form A ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥♥ Tom♥ Tom - Jerry ♥ ♥ Form B ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥♥
  • 77. The value of 1st decisions
  • 78. How should people decide about buying a cup of coffee?
  • 79. What is the self herding version of these decisions?
  • 80. Auctions of real products
  • 81. Auctions of real products Mean value Low ss# High ss# Increase Trackball 16.25 10.38 21.52 107% Keyboard 32.47 21.81 42.03 93% $9 wine 15.80 11.62 19.55 68% $82 wine 22.89 17.42 27.76 59% Design book 18.81 14.15 23.00 62% Belgian Chocolates 13.31 10.04 16.24 62%
  • 82. Auctions of real products Mean value Low ss# High ss# Increase Trackball 16.25 10.38 21.52 107% Keyboard 32.47 21.81 42.03 93% $9 wine 15.80 11.62 19.55 68% $82 wine 22.89 17.42 27.76 59% Design book 18.81 14.15 23.00 62% Belgian Chocolates 13.31 10.04 16.24 62%
  • 83. Auctions of real products Mean value Low ss# High ss# Increase Trackball 16.25 10.38 21.52 107% Keyboard 32.47 21.81 42.03 93% $9 wine 15.80 11.62 19.55 68% $82 wine 22.89 17.42 27.76 59% Design book 18.81 14.15 23.00 62% Belgian Chocolates 13.31 10.04 16.24 62%
  • 84. Auctions of real products Mean value Low ss# High ss# Increase Trackball 16.25 10.38 21.52 107% Keyboard 32.47 21.81 42.03 93% $9 wine 15.80 11.62 19.55 68% $82 wine 22.89 17.42 27.76 59% Design book 18.81 14.15 23.00 62% Belgian Chocolates 13.31 10.04 16.24 62%
  • 85. Auctions of real products Mean value Low ss# High ss# Increase Trackball 16.25 10.38 21.52 107% Keyboard 32.47 21.81 42.03 93% $9 wine 15.80 11.62 19.55 68% $82 wine 22.89 17.42 27.76 59% Design book 18.81 14.15 23.00 62% Belgian Chocolates 13.31 10.04 16.24 62%
  • 86. Auctions of real products Mean value Low ss# High ss# Increase Trackball 16.25 10.38 21.52 107% Keyboard 32.47 21.81 42.03 93% $9 wine 15.80 11.62 19.55 68% $82 wine 22.89 17.42 27.76 59% Design book 18.81 14.15 23.00 62% Belgian Chocolates 13.31 10.04 16.24 62% High dependency between the prices of the 2 wines and 2 computer accessories
  • 88. ???
  • 90. Just because you’ve always done it that way doesn’t mean it’s not incredibly stupid.
  • 91.
  • 92. $600
  • 97. Self control: The problem & How to get over it
  • 98.
  • 99.
  • 100. Desire Now Next week
  • 101. Desire Now Next week
  • 102. Desire Now Next week
  • 103. Desire Now Next Next Year& week year week
  • 104. Desire Now Next Next Year& week year week
  • 105.
  • 112. Importance Movies Time
  • 114. Approaches for self-control Reward substitution
  • 115. Approaches for self-control Reward substitution Self-control contracts
  • 116.
  • 117. Delayed gratification & commitment 1 immediately 10 w/ 10sec delay Ainslie & Herrnstein 1974
  • 118. Delayed gratification & commitment ✔ 1 immediately 10 w/ 10sec delay Ainslie & Herrnstein 1974
  • 119. Delayed gratification & commitment 1 immediately 10 w/ 10sec delay Ainslie & Herrnstein 1974
  • 120. Delayed gratification & commitment ✔ 1 immediately 10 w/ 10sec delay Ainslie & Herrnstein 1974
  • 121. Delayed gratification & commitment 1 immediately No temptation button 10 w/ 10sec delay Ainslie & Herrnstein 1974
  • 122. Delayed gratification & commitment 1 immediately No temptation button ✔ 10 w/ 10sec delay Ainslie & Herrnstein 1974
  • 123. Clocky
  • 124. Clocky
  • 126.
  • 127.
  • 128.
  • 129.
  • 130.
  • 132. Standard Economics ... What a piece of work is a man! how noble in reason! how infinite in faculty! in form and moving how express and admirable! in action how like an angel! in apprehension how like a god! Will Shakespeare (Act II,scene 2, of Hamlet)
  • 133. Behavioral Economics ... Standard What a piece of work is a man! how noble in reason! how infinite in faculty! in form and moving how express and admirable! in action how like an angel! in apprehension how like a god! Will Shakespeare (Act II,scene 2, of Hamlet)
  • 134. VS.

Editor's Notes

  1. Sad news but also …..\nSelf control -- interferon -- medicine box\n
  2. The first one is a "protocol diagram for SSL, the encryption system in your web browser that secures credit card numbers and passwords online."  I generally point out that a hacker will attack every point in a protocol - by injecting a zero where it expects a one; by sending a date from the past or the future; sending two responses instead of one; responding too slowly or too fast.  The second one is "what SSL actually looks like to a hacker."  The third slide is "a protocol diagram for malaria."  So you can draw analogies to that.  I generally say that we are trying to attack every point in that protocol, and that the mindset of a hacker is particularly good for this kind of thinking.\n\n
  3. Sometimes we can trust our intuitions\nAnd sometimes we cannot\nThe problem is that there is no way to know just by looking at the situation in which case you are in\n
  4. Sometimes we can trust our intuitions\nAnd sometimes we cannot\nThe problem is that there is no way to know just by looking at the situation in which case you are in\n
  5. Remember that you will die \n\nAt the peak of Rome’s power, Roman generals (i.e., Caesars), who won significant victories were sometimes granted something called a Triumph, which was a procession in which the victorious army marched through the middle of the city displaying their slaves and spoils. The General wore purple and gold ceremonial robes, a crown of laurels, and red paint on his face as he was carried through the city on a throne. The pomp and circumstance was intended to symbolize the general’s tenure as “king for a day.” \n\nThe finishing touch to the Triumph, however, was far less glamorous. Near the General throughout the day was a slave who repeatedly whispered “Momento mori,” which means “Remember that you will die.” Of course the purpose of this official downer was to prevent him from becoming overconfident, which could cost the empire dearly if a puffed up General decided to start taking risks. \n\nIt’s instructive in pointing out that we’re highly vulnerable to deceiving ourselves after great successes, and it’s in these moments that we need to remember that not everything turns out so rosy.\n\n\n\n
  6. \n
  7. \n
  8. An important decision with high variance\nWhat could it be?\nSweden and Denmark\nNetherlands & Belgium\nGermany & Austria\nUK & France ;)\n\nCountries on left are opt in (default is not)\nCountries on right are opt out (default is yes)\n
  9. \n
  10. \n
  11. \n
  12. \n
  13. \n
  14. \n
  15. \n
  16. \n
  17. Urinal catheter defaults…\nExpress Scripts -- not allowing no action\nMore on this\n
  18. ***\n53% vs 72%\n\nYour patient is a 67-year-old farmer with chronic right hip pain. The diagnosis is osteoarthritis. You have tried several non-steroidal anti-inflammatory agents (e.g. aspirin, naproxen, and ketoprofen) and have stopped them because of either adverse effects or lack of efficacy. You decide to refer him to an orthopedic consultant for consideration for hip replacement surgery. The patient agrees to this plan. Before sending him away, however, you check the drug formulary and find that there\nCase I: is one non-steroidal medication that this patient has not tried (ibuprofen). What do you do?\n\nCase II: are two non-steroidal medications that this patient has not tried (ibuprofen and piroxicam). What do you do?\n
  19. ***\n53% vs 72%\n\nYour patient is a 67-year-old farmer with chronic right hip pain. The diagnosis is osteoarthritis. You have tried several non-steroidal anti-inflammatory agents (e.g. aspirin, naproxen, and ketoprofen) and have stopped them because of either adverse effects or lack of efficacy. You decide to refer him to an orthopedic consultant for consideration for hip replacement surgery. The patient agrees to this plan. Before sending him away, however, you check the drug formulary and find that there\nCase I: is one non-steroidal medication that this patient has not tried (ibuprofen). What do you do?\n\nCase II: are two non-steroidal medications that this patient has not tried (ibuprofen and piroxicam). What do you do?\n
  20. ***\n53% vs 72%\n\nYour patient is a 67-year-old farmer with chronic right hip pain. The diagnosis is osteoarthritis. You have tried several non-steroidal anti-inflammatory agents (e.g. aspirin, naproxen, and ketoprofen) and have stopped them because of either adverse effects or lack of efficacy. You decide to refer him to an orthopedic consultant for consideration for hip replacement surgery. The patient agrees to this plan. Before sending him away, however, you check the drug formulary and find that there\nCase I: is one non-steroidal medication that this patient has not tried (ibuprofen). What do you do?\n\nCase II: are two non-steroidal medications that this patient has not tried (ibuprofen and piroxicam). What do you do?\n
  21. ***\n53% vs 72%\n\nYour patient is a 67-year-old farmer with chronic right hip pain. The diagnosis is osteoarthritis. You have tried several non-steroidal anti-inflammatory agents (e.g. aspirin, naproxen, and ketoprofen) and have stopped them because of either adverse effects or lack of efficacy. You decide to refer him to an orthopedic consultant for consideration for hip replacement surgery. The patient agrees to this plan. Before sending him away, however, you check the drug formulary and find that there\nCase I: is one non-steroidal medication that this patient has not tried (ibuprofen). What do you do?\n\nCase II: are two non-steroidal medications that this patient has not tried (ibuprofen and piroxicam). What do you do?\n
  22. ***\n53% vs 72%\n\nYour patient is a 67-year-old farmer with chronic right hip pain. The diagnosis is osteoarthritis. You have tried several non-steroidal anti-inflammatory agents (e.g. aspirin, naproxen, and ketoprofen) and have stopped them because of either adverse effects or lack of efficacy. You decide to refer him to an orthopedic consultant for consideration for hip replacement surgery. The patient agrees to this plan. Before sending him away, however, you check the drug formulary and find that there\nCase I: is one non-steroidal medication that this patient has not tried (ibuprofen). What do you do?\n\nCase II: are two non-steroidal medications that this patient has not tried (ibuprofen and piroxicam). What do you do?\n
  23. ***\n53% vs 72%\n\nYour patient is a 67-year-old farmer with chronic right hip pain. The diagnosis is osteoarthritis. You have tried several non-steroidal anti-inflammatory agents (e.g. aspirin, naproxen, and ketoprofen) and have stopped them because of either adverse effects or lack of efficacy. You decide to refer him to an orthopedic consultant for consideration for hip replacement surgery. The patient agrees to this plan. Before sending him away, however, you check the drug formulary and find that there\nCase I: is one non-steroidal medication that this patient has not tried (ibuprofen). What do you do?\n\nCase II: are two non-steroidal medications that this patient has not tried (ibuprofen and piroxicam). What do you do?\n
  24. ***\n53% vs 72%\n\nYour patient is a 67-year-old farmer with chronic right hip pain. The diagnosis is osteoarthritis. You have tried several non-steroidal anti-inflammatory agents (e.g. aspirin, naproxen, and ketoprofen) and have stopped them because of either adverse effects or lack of efficacy. You decide to refer him to an orthopedic consultant for consideration for hip replacement surgery. The patient agrees to this plan. Before sending him away, however, you check the drug formulary and find that there\nCase I: is one non-steroidal medication that this patient has not tried (ibuprofen). What do you do?\n\nCase II: are two non-steroidal medications that this patient has not tried (ibuprofen and piroxicam). What do you do?\n
  25. ***\n53% vs 72%\n\nYour patient is a 67-year-old farmer with chronic right hip pain. The diagnosis is osteoarthritis. You have tried several non-steroidal anti-inflammatory agents (e.g. aspirin, naproxen, and ketoprofen) and have stopped them because of either adverse effects or lack of efficacy. You decide to refer him to an orthopedic consultant for consideration for hip replacement surgery. The patient agrees to this plan. Before sending him away, however, you check the drug formulary and find that there\nCase I: is one non-steroidal medication that this patient has not tried (ibuprofen). What do you do?\n\nCase II: are two non-steroidal medications that this patient has not tried (ibuprofen and piroxicam). What do you do?\n
  26. ***\n53% vs 72%\n\nYour patient is a 67-year-old farmer with chronic right hip pain. The diagnosis is osteoarthritis. You have tried several non-steroidal anti-inflammatory agents (e.g. aspirin, naproxen, and ketoprofen) and have stopped them because of either adverse effects or lack of efficacy. You decide to refer him to an orthopedic consultant for consideration for hip replacement surgery. The patient agrees to this plan. Before sending him away, however, you check the drug formulary and find that there\nCase I: is one non-steroidal medication that this patient has not tried (ibuprofen). What do you do?\n\nCase II: are two non-steroidal medications that this patient has not tried (ibuprofen and piroxicam). What do you do?\n
  27. ***\n53% vs 72%\n\nYour patient is a 67-year-old farmer with chronic right hip pain. The diagnosis is osteoarthritis. You have tried several non-steroidal anti-inflammatory agents (e.g. aspirin, naproxen, and ketoprofen) and have stopped them because of either adverse effects or lack of efficacy. You decide to refer him to an orthopedic consultant for consideration for hip replacement surgery. The patient agrees to this plan. Before sending him away, however, you check the drug formulary and find that there\nCase I: is one non-steroidal medication that this patient has not tried (ibuprofen). What do you do?\n\nCase II: are two non-steroidal medications that this patient has not tried (ibuprofen and piroxicam). What do you do?\n
  28. The same results occur with digital cameras, etc\n\n401(K) for every 10 additional options participation drops by 2%\n\nWhat does this means for you!!!\n
  29. The same results occur with digital cameras, etc\n\n401(K) for every 10 additional options participation drops by 2%\n\nWhat does this means for you!!!\n
  30. The same results occur with digital cameras, etc\n\n401(K) for every 10 additional options participation drops by 2%\n\nWhat does this means for you!!!\n
  31. The same results occur with digital cameras, etc\n\n401(K) for every 10 additional options participation drops by 2%\n\nWhat does this means for you!!!\n
  32. The same results occur with digital cameras, etc\n\n401(K) for every 10 additional options participation drops by 2%\n\nWhat does this means for you!!!\n
  33. The same results occur with digital cameras, etc\n\n401(K) for every 10 additional options participation drops by 2%\n\nWhat does this means for you!!!\n
  34. The same results occur with digital cameras, etc\n\n401(K) for every 10 additional options participation drops by 2%\n\nWhat does this means for you!!!\n
  35. The same results occur with digital cameras, etc\n\n401(K) for every 10 additional options participation drops by 2%\n\nWhat does this means for you!!!\n
  36. The same results occur with digital cameras, etc\n\n401(K) for every 10 additional options participation drops by 2%\n\nWhat does this means for you!!!\n
  37. The same results occur with digital cameras, etc\n\n401(K) for every 10 additional options participation drops by 2%\n\nWhat does this means for you!!!\n
  38. The same results occur with digital cameras, etc\n\n401(K) for every 10 additional options participation drops by 2%\n\nWhat does this means for you!!!\n
  39. The same results occur with digital cameras, etc\n\n401(K) for every 10 additional options participation drops by 2%\n\nWhat does this means for you!!!\n
  40. The power of defaults -- hard to see it on ourselves\n401 K etc\nDefaults are a very powerful, yet largely an unrecognized force.\nDefaults become even more important when there are many choices, or when the choice is complex.\n\nDefaults is just one example!!!\n
  41. \n
  42. \n
  43. \n
  44. \n
  45. \n
  46. \n
  47. \n
  48. \n
  49. Who would is more likely to say they love their sig other or buy a BMW (also tendency for affairs)\n\nIn general asking a question should not change preference\n\nThe fact that it does means we have very ill defined preferences\n
  50. Who would is more likely to say they love their sig other or buy a BMW (also tendency for affairs)\n\nIn general asking a question should not change preference\n\nThe fact that it does means we have very ill defined preferences\n
  51. ***\nWould the desire for appointment be different?\n\nThese are the inferences\n\nOther Q:\nWatch TV\nMasturbate\n
  52. ***\nWould the desire for appointment be different?\n\nThese are the inferences\n\nOther Q:\nWatch TV\nMasturbate\n
  53. ***\nWould the desire for appointment be different?\n\nThese are the inferences\n\nOther Q:\nWatch TV\nMasturbate\n
  54. ***\nWould the desire for appointment be different?\n\nThese are the inferences\n\nOther Q:\nWatch TV\nMasturbate\n
  55. ***\nWould the desire for appointment be different?\n\nThese are the inferences\n\nOther Q:\nWatch TV\nMasturbate\n
  56. ***\nWould the desire for appointment be different?\n\nThese are the inferences\n\nOther Q:\nWatch TV\nMasturbate\n
  57. ***\nWould the desire for appointment be different?\n\nThese are the inferences\n\nOther Q:\nWatch TV\nMasturbate\n
  58. ***\nWould the desire for appointment be different?\n\nThese are the inferences\n\nOther Q:\nWatch TV\nMasturbate\n
  59. ***\nWould the desire for appointment be different?\n\nThese are the inferences\n\nOther Q:\nWatch TV\nMasturbate\n
  60. What does this means for you?\n\n
  61. Introducing a dominated alternative (an alternative that is worse on every attribute) -- > Should have no effect on choice\n\nTell the “joke” about Vanilla, chocolate, strawberries \n
  62. Introducing a dominated alternative (an alternative that is worse on every attribute) -- > Should have no effect on choice\n\nTell the “joke” about Vanilla, chocolate, strawberries \n
  63. Introducing a dominated alternative (an alternative that is worse on every attribute) -- > Should have no effect on choice\n\nTell the “joke” about Vanilla, chocolate, strawberries \n
  64. Introducing a dominated alternative (an alternative that is worse on every attribute) -- > Should have no effect on choice\n\nTell the “joke” about Vanilla, chocolate, strawberries \n
  65. Introducing a dominated alternative (an alternative that is worse on every attribute) -- > Should have no effect on choice\n\nTell the “joke” about Vanilla, chocolate, strawberries \n
  66. Introducing a dominated alternative (an alternative that is worse on every attribute) -- > Should have no effect on choice\n\nTell the “joke” about Vanilla, chocolate, strawberries \n
  67. Introducing a dominated alternative (an alternative that is worse on every attribute) -- > Should have no effect on choice\n\nTell the “joke” about Vanilla, chocolate, strawberries \n
  68. Introducing a dominated alternative (an alternative that is worse on every attribute) -- > Should have no effect on choice\n\nTell the “joke” about Vanilla, chocolate, strawberries \n
  69. Talk a bit about the psychology of money\n
  70. Talk a bit about the psychology of money\n
  71. Talk a bit about the psychology of money\n
  72. Talk a bit about the psychology of money\n
  73. Talk a bit about the psychology of money\n
  74. Talk a bit about the psychology of money\n
  75. Talk a bit about the psychology of money\n
  76. Who would you date?\nAdvice for dating 1 and 2\n\n
  77. Who would you date?\nAdvice for dating 1 and 2\n\n
  78. Who would you date?\nAdvice for dating 1 and 2\n\n
  79. Who would you date?\nAdvice for dating 1 and 2\n\n
  80. Who would you date?\nAdvice for dating 1 and 2\n\n
  81. Who would you date?\nAdvice for dating 1 and 2\n\n
  82. Who would you date?\nAdvice for dating 1 and 2\n\n
  83. Who would you date?\nAdvice for dating 1 and 2\n\n
  84. Who would you date?\nAdvice for dating 1 and 2\n\n
  85. Who would you date?\nAdvice for dating 1 and 2\n\n
  86. Who would you date?\nAdvice for dating 1 and 2\n\n
  87. \n
  88. Lets think about coffee \n\nBenefits\nCosts\nRelative to everything else\n
  89. Lets think about coffee \n\nBenefits\nCosts\nRelative to everything else\n
  90. Explain the setup\n\nSS#;Yes / No; second price bid + warning\n\nSo what we get here is that WTP is very influenced by answering an arbitrary question\n
  91. Explain the setup\n\nSS#;Yes / No; second price bid + warning\n\nSo what we get here is that WTP is very influenced by answering an arbitrary question\n
  92. Explain the setup\n\nSS#;Yes / No; second price bid + warning\n\nSo what we get here is that WTP is very influenced by answering an arbitrary question\n
  93. Explain the setup\n\nSS#;Yes / No; second price bid + warning\n\nSo what we get here is that WTP is very influenced by answering an arbitrary question\n
  94. Explain the setup\n\nSS#;Yes / No; second price bid + warning\n\nSo what we get here is that WTP is very influenced by answering an arbitrary question\n
  95. Explain the setup\n\nSS#;Yes / No; second price bid + warning\n\nSo what we get here is that WTP is very influenced by answering an arbitrary question\n
  96. Mark Twain took this even one step further\n\nIn Chapter 2 he describes Tom’s punishment\n
  97. \nAlso about how they were able to run away from duncan donuts\n
  98. What does this means for you?\n\nFirst decisions are difficult\nParticularly with money\nAfter first decision people use a “self herding” approach to making decisions\nThis is how one decision can become a long-term habit\n\nConrad Lorenz\n2 stages for preferences\nIll defined and well defined and the learning process can be illusory\n\nHerding based on others\nHerding based on self?\nOne way for behaviors to become habits without reflecting true preferences\n\nMoney is difficult to think about so people do different things...\nSummarize here what it means for products\n
  99. Just because you’ve always done it that way doesn’t mean it’s not incredibly stupid. \n
  100. Add iphone and ipad\nInitial price of 600 going to 400\nAnd once it went to 200 (by chariging for monthly) how did this affected the value perception\n\n+ Keep the phone longer\n
  101. Add iphone and ipad\nInitial price of 600 going to 400\nAnd once it went to 200 (by chariging for monthly) how did this affected the value perception\n\n+ Keep the phone longer\n
  102. Add iphone and ipad\nInitial price of 600 going to 400\nAnd once it went to 200 (by chariging for monthly) how did this affected the value perception\n\n+ Keep the phone longer\n
  103. Add iphone and ipad\nInitial price of 600 going to 400\nAnd once it went to 200 (by chariging for monthly) how did this affected the value perception\n\n+ Keep the phone longer\n
  104. Add iphone and ipad\nInitial price of 600 going to 400\nAnd once it went to 200 (by chariging for monthly) how did this affected the value perception\n\n+ Keep the phone longer\n
  105. Add iphone and ipad\nInitial price of 600 going to 400\nAnd once it went to 200 (by chariging for monthly) how did this affected the value perception\n\n+ Keep the phone longer\n
  106. 0 for free and why it went bust\npeople assumed that people will use for free realize the benefits and be able to translate them back to money\n\nAlso mention Tivo starting at 200 (VCR) vs $1,000 (Computer) and changing to $500\n
  107. Example for how things can go wrong….\n
  108. \n
  109. Describe the details of the experiment and the results\n\nIndividuals have different preferences under different emotional states\nIndividuals cannot predict this effect or intuit their preferences under a different emotional states \n(even common emotional states)\nThis can lead to many types of undesirable behaviors ......\n
  110. Describe the details of the experiment and the results\n\nIndividuals have different preferences under different emotional states\nIndividuals cannot predict this effect or intuit their preferences under a different emotional states \n(even common emotional states)\nThis can lead to many types of undesirable behaviors ......\n
  111. Describe the details of the experiment and the results\n\nIndividuals have different preferences under different emotional states\nIndividuals cannot predict this effect or intuit their preferences under a different emotional states \n(even common emotional states)\nThis can lead to many types of undesirable behaviors ......\n
  112. Describe the details of the experiment and the results\n\nIndividuals have different preferences under different emotional states\nIndividuals cannot predict this effect or intuit their preferences under a different emotional states \n(even common emotional states)\nThis can lead to many types of undesirable behaviors ......\n
  113. Summary\nWe are much more like Jekyll and Hyde than we tend to recognize. When emotions take hold of us whether positive or negative we change, view the world differently and act in ways that we don’t accurately anticipate... \nWhen emotions strike we care about our immediate desires and largely forget about our long term-goals ..\n
  114. My interferon story part 1 -- just the problem with medications\n
  115. Adam & Eve\n\nTemptation something that we have always struggled with\nASk people about over eating, under staving\nSafe sex\n\nWhich one do you think we can see in the world?\n\nFor what kinds of activities\nProcrastination\nUnder saving\nNot taking care of our health\nItching\nNail biting\nDrug usage\n\n
  116. \n
  117. Put 1/2 box of chocolate vs 1 -- now and later\nHave a ? and animate to show half now bette than full a week from now\nThen do the opposite for a week from now\n\nTexting while driving….\n\nProcrastination\nUnder saving\nNot taking care of our health\nItching\nNail biting\nDrug usage\n
  118. Put 1/2 box of chocolate vs 1 -- now and later\nHave a ? and animate to show half now bette than full a week from now\nThen do the opposite for a week from now\n\nTexting while driving….\n\nProcrastination\nUnder saving\nNot taking care of our health\nItching\nNail biting\nDrug usage\n
  119. Put 1/2 box of chocolate vs 1 -- now and later\nHave a ? and animate to show half now bette than full a week from now\nThen do the opposite for a week from now\n\nTexting while driving….\n\nProcrastination\nUnder saving\nNot taking care of our health\nItching\nNail biting\nDrug usage\n
  120. Put 1/2 box of chocolate vs 1 -- now and later\nHave a ? and animate to show half now bette than full a week from now\nThen do the opposite for a week from now\n\nTexting while driving….\n\nProcrastination\nUnder saving\nNot taking care of our health\nItching\nNail biting\nDrug usage\n
  121. Put 1/2 box of chocolate vs 1 -- now and later\nHave a ? and animate to show half now bette than full a week from now\nThen do the opposite for a week from now\n\nTexting while driving….\n\nProcrastination\nUnder saving\nNot taking care of our health\nItching\nNail biting\nDrug usage\n
  122. Put 1/2 box of chocolate vs 1 -- now and later\nHave a ? and animate to show half now bette than full a week from now\nThen do the opposite for a week from now\n\nTexting while driving….\n\nProcrastination\nUnder saving\nNot taking care of our health\nItching\nNail biting\nDrug usage\n
  123. Put 1/2 box of chocolate vs 1 -- now and later\nHave a ? and animate to show half now bette than full a week from now\nThen do the opposite for a week from now\n\nTexting while driving….\n\nProcrastination\nUnder saving\nNot taking care of our health\nItching\nNail biting\nDrug usage\n
  124. Put 1/2 box of chocolate vs 1 -- now and later\nHave a ? and animate to show half now bette than full a week from now\nThen do the opposite for a week from now\n\nTexting while driving….\n\nProcrastination\nUnder saving\nNot taking care of our health\nItching\nNail biting\nDrug usage\n
  125. Put 1/2 box of chocolate vs 1 -- now and later\nHave a ? and animate to show half now bette than full a week from now\nThen do the opposite for a week from now\n\nTexting while driving….\n\nProcrastination\nUnder saving\nNot taking care of our health\nItching\nNail biting\nDrug usage\n
  126. At the end of the treatment it worked\nOnly person -- how? Movies\nTell Movies story\n
  127. Here is the basic problem -- emotions for now\n\nReward substitution\n\nGlobal warming, saving, going to the gym….\n
  128. Here is the basic problem -- emotions for now\n\nReward substitution\n\nGlobal warming, saving, going to the gym….\n
  129. Here is the basic problem -- emotions for now\n\nReward substitution\n\nGlobal warming, saving, going to the gym….\n
  130. Here is the basic problem -- emotions for now\n\nReward substitution\n\nGlobal warming, saving, going to the gym….\n
  131. Here is the basic problem -- emotions for now\n\nReward substitution\n\nGlobal warming, saving, going to the gym….\n
  132. Here is the basic problem -- emotions for now\n\nReward substitution\n\nGlobal warming, saving, going to the gym….\n
  133. Here is the basic problem -- emotions for now\n\nReward substitution\n\nGlobal warming, saving, going to the gym….\n
  134. \n
  135. \n
  136. \n
  137. \n
  138. Another version for a solution for self control problems\n\nUlysses and the sirens\nFor the sailors\nFor himself \n\nMany mechanisms\nDrugs in Denver\nSmall packs of cigarets and chips\nDiet farms\n\n
  139. Yes -- but would people use it?\n\nDescribe the set up.\n\nA choice between a smaller immediate reward and a later larger reward\n\nAnimals pick the smaller sooner one\n
  140. Yes -- but would people use it?\n\nDescribe the set up.\n\nA choice between a smaller immediate reward and a later larger reward\n\nAnimals pick the smaller sooner one\n
  141. Yes -- but would people use it?\n\nDescribe the set up.\n\nA choice between a smaller immediate reward and a later larger reward\n\nAnimals pick the smaller sooner one\n
  142. Yes -- but would people use it?\n\nDescribe the set up.\n\nA choice between a smaller immediate reward and a later larger reward\n\nAnimals pick the smaller sooner one\n
  143. Yes -- but would people use it?\n\nDescribe the set up.\n\nA choice between a smaller immediate reward and a later larger reward\n\nAnimals pick the smaller sooner one\n
  144. Yes -- but would people use it?\n\nDescribe the set up.\n\nA choice between a smaller immediate reward and a later larger reward\n\nAnimals pick the smaller sooner one\n
  145. Yes -- but would people use it?\n\nDescribe the set up.\n\nA choice between a smaller immediate reward and a later larger reward\n\nAnimals pick the smaller sooner one\n
  146. Yes -- but would people use it?\n\nDescribe the set up.\n\nA choice between a smaller immediate reward and a later larger reward\n\nAnimals pick the smaller sooner one\n
  147. Clocky, An MIT Media Lab Research Project\nProfile By Gauri Nanda\n\ncars + self control in cars\n
  148. \n
  149. \n
  150. \n
  151. Emotion summary --\nAnd Free lunches idea\nReward substation and self control contracts \n-- 44.5% of all premature deaths in the US result from personal decisions – decisions that involving among others smoking, not exercising, criminality, drug and alcohol use, and unsafe sexual behavior.  \n\n
  152. Emotion summary --\nAnd Free lunches idea\nReward substation and self control contracts \n-- 44.5% of all premature deaths in the US result from personal decisions – decisions that involving among others smoking, not exercising, criminality, drug and alcohol use, and unsafe sexual behavior.  \n\n
  153. Emotion summary --\nAnd Free lunches idea\nReward substation and self control contracts \n-- 44.5% of all premature deaths in the US result from personal decisions – decisions that involving among others smoking, not exercising, criminality, drug and alcohol use, and unsafe sexual behavior.  \n\n
  154. Conclusion \nPeople have an imprecise knowledge of their own preferences\nSusceptible to influences from questions\nSusceptible to influences from “frames”\nSusceptible to influences from context\nChoice is difficult --> relative choice is simpler\nChoice is constructed\n\nAgain people have no idea about the “flexibility” of their preferences\nRelativity is an important construct \nRelative to what? Important question -- relative to what comes to mind at each particular instant\nRelativity\n
  155. So, what is behavioral economics?\nThe rational model\nThe behavioral econ model\n\n Mediocre judgments\nIncoherent & malleable preferences\nImpulsive / myopic\nReciprocating / trusting / vindictive\nVariable tastes (poorly predicted)\n\n\nPeople “solve” local decisions\nContext dependent, reference dependent, myopic, biased\nRequire paternalistic attention and help???\n
  156. So, what is behavioral economics?\nThe rational model\nThe behavioral econ model\n\n Mediocre judgments\nIncoherent & malleable preferences\nImpulsive / myopic\nReciprocating / trusting / vindictive\nVariable tastes (poorly predicted)\n\n\nPeople “solve” local decisions\nContext dependent, reference dependent, myopic, biased\nRequire paternalistic attention and help???\n
  157. --Replace the middle picture with something physical\n\nWhat does this means for you?\nThink about what you are going to do next!!!\n\n\nWhy do we understand that when we design physical products we need to take people’s ability into account but we don’t understand this in mental products?\n\n\n
  158. 1) We do have irrational tendencies\n2) Our intuitions are often wrong\n3) FDA -- need experiments\n4) Not focus groups!!!!\n\n
  159. Show different versions of a fork in the road -- \nmaybe 3\nY\nT \nF\n
  160. Show different versions of a fork in the road -- \nmaybe 3\nY\nT \nF\n
  161. Show different versions of a fork in the road -- \nmaybe 3\nY\nT \nF\n
  162. Show different versions of a fork in the road -- \nmaybe 3\nY\nT \nF\n
  163. Show different versions of a fork in the road -- \nmaybe 3\nY\nT \nF\n