1. Sponsored by
Vol. 11, No. 24 / February 4, 2013
Please note that today’s report has two additional pages. CALF CROP AND US BEEF PRODUCTION: 1980 - 2012
50,000 Calf Crop
On page 2 we have included a recap of the results of the latest
Beef Prod 27,800
'000 head mil lb.
cattle inventory report and a comparison to the average pre-report 48,000
Beef Prod.
(right axis)
26,700
analyst estimates. The regular weekly production and price sum- 46,000 25,600
mary is on page 3.
44,000 24,500
Cattle Inventory Results 42,000 2013 USDA Prod. Est.
24.9 bil. lb.; -3.9%
23,400
40,000 22,300
USDA released on Friday, February 1, 2013, the results
of its semi-annual survey of cattle operations across the country.
38,000 21,200
Prior to the report analysts were expecting the total inventory to 36,000
Calf Crop 20,100
decline 1.8% from the previous year. USDA reported that as of 34,000
(left axis)
19,000
January 1, 2013, there were 89.3 million cattle and calves 2012 =34.279 mil.
32,000 17,900
across the US, 1.6% lower than the previous year. This is - 2.9% vs. 2011
the smallest US cattle inventory since 1952. Even though the 30,000 16,800
total inventory number came in a bit above pre-report estimates,
we think the report itself can be construed as moderately bullish US COW INVENTORY THE LOWEST SINCE 1941
for cattle prices in late 2013 and 2014. USDA made two signifi- mil head
January 1, 2013 US Cow Inventory
cant revisions to previous estimates of the calf crop and the cow 60.000
herd. The total calf crop for 2012 is now pegged at 34.279 million
head, 2.9% lower than a year ago. The first estimate of the 2012 55.000
calf crop, published back in July, had pegged the calf crop at
34.500 million head while prior to the report analysts were expect- 50.000
ing the calf crop number to be around 34.572 million head. The
smaller calf crop implies a net reduction in the number of cattle 45.000
that will come to market in late 2013 and in 2014 (hence this re-
port construed as bullish for deferred LC futures and FC contracts
40.000
this year). As we noted a few days ago, even as US cattle invento-
ries have declined, producers have been able to offset the potential 1941 = Jan 1, 2013 =
decline in production by becoming more efficient, particularly by 35.000 36.819 mil. head 38.515 mil. head
bringing heavier weight cattle to market. The calf crop has de-
clined about 15% since 1995 (the last peak in the crop cycle). De- 30.000
1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
spite the net annual loss of about 6 million calves, beef production
in 2012 was about 25.912 billion pounds, compared to 22.942 bil-
business and as producers try to add more pounds on cattle out-
lion pounds in 1995, a 13% increase. And the efficiency gains will
side of feedlots, this could further slowdown the flow of cattle and
need to continue since the steady decline in the cow inventory im-
plies ever shrinking calf crops in 2013 and 2014. Last year cattle lead to a net decline in beef output.
carcass weights exploded, in part due to the increased use of As for cattle herd rebuilding, the latest survey showed
growth promotants. The class 2 beta agonists that have been used that the incentives are there but weather will remain a critical
recently have been reported to added about 21 pounds of carcass driver. Despite widespread drought pressures last year, the in-
weight compared to earlier products. Still, the increase in effi- ventory showed that producers held back 5.361 million heifers for
ciency can only go so far in helping offset the decline in calf num- beef cow herd rebuilding, 1.9% more than the previous year. How-
bers. Total beef production in 2013 is currently expected to de- ever, heifers held back for dairy production declined 1.5%. In all,
cline some 3.9% from the previous year (USDA/WASDE). This the US cow herd as of January 1, 2013 was 38.515 million head,
forecast reflects the reduction in the number of calves that will be 2.2% lower than year ago levels. Prior to the report analysts were
available for placement. Also, producers will likely limit the num- expecting the cow inventory to be down 1.3%. The beef cow herd
ber of cows that will go to market, leading to a further decline in was 29.295 million head, down 2.9% vs. pre-report estimates look-
slaughter and output. High feed costs continue to impede feeding ing just for a 1.5% decline.
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possible where projec ons of future condi ons are a empted. Futures trading is not suitable for all investors, and involves the risk of loss. Past results are no indica on of future performance.
Futures are a leveraged investment, and because only a percentage of a contract’s value is require to trade, it is possible to lose more than the amount of money ini ally deposited for a futures
posi on. Therefore, traders should only use funds that they can afford to lose without affec ng their lifestyle. And only a por on of those funds should be devoted to any one trade because a
trader cannot expect to profit on every trade.

2. Page 2
Sponsored by
Vol. 11, No. 24 / February 4, 2013
JANUARY 1st U. S. CATTLE INVENTORY
% Ch. vs. Pre-Report
INVENTORY (000 OMITTED) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2012 Est.
ALL CATTLE AND CALVES 98,199 97,298 96,723 96,100 94,403 95,018 96,342 96,573 96,035 94,521 93,881 92,682 90,769 89,300 -1.6% -1.8%
COW AND HEIFERS THAT HAVE CALVED 42,758 42,570 42,240 42,125 41,519 41,678 41,806 41,789 41,692 41,045 40,456 39,999 39,387 38,515 -2.2% -1.3%
BEEF COWS 33,575 33,398 33,134 32,983 32,531 32,674 32,703 32,644 32,435 31,712 31,371 30,850 30,158 29,295 -2.9% -1.5%
DAIRY COWS 9,183 9,172 9,106 9,142 8,988 9,004 9,104 9,145 9,257 9,333 9,086 9,150 9,230 9,220 -0.1% -0.7%
HEIFERS 500LBS. AND OVER 19,650 19,776 19,683 19,629 19,282 19,445 19,950 20,074 19,855 19,576 19,746 19,576 19,338 19,129 -1.1% -2.0%
BEEF COW REPLACEMENT 5,503 5,588 5,571 5,624 5,508 5,638 5,864 5,835 5,647 5,531 5,451 5,139 5,262 5,361 1.9% -0.4%
DAIRY COW REPALCEMENT 4,000 4,057 4,055 4,114 4,018 4,117 4,298 4,325 4,415 4,410 4,526 4,568 4,622 4,551 -1.5% -0.8%
OTHER HEIFERS 10,147 10,131 10,057 9,891 9,756 9,690 9,788 9,914 9,793 9,635 9,769 9,869 9,454 9,218 -2.5% -3.5%
STEERS 500 LBS. AND OVER 16,682 16,461 16,804 16,554 16,201 16,466 16,988 17,185 17,163 16,769 16,510 16,397 15,833 15,813 -0.1% -2.2%
BULLS 500 LBS. AND OVER 2,293 2,274 2,244 2,248 2,201 2,214 2,258 2,214 2,207 2,184 2,190 2,155 2,096 2,056 -1.9% -2.7%
HFRS, STRS AND BULLS UNDER 500 LBS. 16,816 16,216 15,753 15,545 15,200 15,215 15,339 15,311 15,118 14,948 14,979 14,555 14,115 13,787 -2.3% -2.5%
ANNUAL CALF CROP ** 38,631 38,300 38,224 37,593 37,260 37,106 37,016 36,759 36,153 35,939 35,685 35,313 34,279 -2.9% -2.1%
The Daily Livestock Report is made possible with support from readers like you. If you enjoy reading this report and would like to
sustain it going forward, consider becoming a contributor by going to our website: www.DailyLivestockReport.com
Thank you for your support!

3. Page 3
Sponsored by
Vol. 11, No. 24 / February 4, 2013
PRODUCTION & PRICE SUMMARY Week Ending 2/2/2013
Current Y/Y %
Item Units Week Last Week Pct. Change Last Year Pct. Change YTD Change
2-Feb-13 26-Jan-13 4-Feb-12
Total Red Meat & Poultry mil lbs., cwe 1,727 1,705 1.26% 1,682 2.68% 7,488 -0.5%
FI Slaughter Thou. Head 621 625 -0.64% 591 5.07% 2,919 -3.3%
C FI Cow Slaughter ** Thou. Head 135 141 -4.24% 133 1.26% 378 -4.9%
A Avg. Live Weight Lbs. 1333 1333 0.00% 1312 1.60% 1,332 2.1%
T Avg. Dressed Weight Lbs. 800 802 -0.25% 789 1.39% 800 2.1%
T Beef Production Million Lbs. 495.5 500.1 -0.92% 465.1 6.54% 2,295 -2.7%
L Live Fed Steer Price $ per cwt 124.96 122.60 1.92% 123.35 1.31%
E Dressed Fed Steer Price $ per cwt 197.63 198.03 -0.20% 198.01 -0.19%
OKC Feeder Steer, 600-700 $ per cwt 157.29 153.87 2.22% 163.10 -3.56%
& Choice Beef Cutout $ per cwt 185.83 188.95 -1.65% 183.34 1.36%
Hide/Offal $ per cwt, live wt 13.70 13.59 0.81% 12.49 9.69%
B Rib, Choice $ per cwt 270.19 273.17 -1.09% 252.32 7.08%
E Round, Choice $ per cwt 162.53 167.13 -2.75% 166.64 -2.47%
E Chuck, Choice $ per cwt 160.56 163.49 -1.79% 157.16 2.16%
F Trimmings, 50% $ per cwt 66.69 66.08 0.92% 98.83 -32.52%
Trimmings, 90% $ per cwt 212.02 211.74 0.13% 206.30 2.77%
FI Slaughter Thou. Head 2,176 2,153 1.07% 2,131 2.11% 10,415 -3.4%
FI Sow Slaughter ** Thou. Head 59.7 56.4 5.82% 57.5 3.90% 163 -3.6%
H Avg. Dressed Weight Lbs. 208.0 208.0 0.00% 208.0 0.00% 208 -0.4%
O Pork Production Million Lbs. 452.2 446.7 1.23% 443.3 2.01% 2,163 -3.8%
G Iowa-S. Minn. Direct Wtd. Avg. 86.49 86.51 -0.02% 87.09 -0.69%
S Natl. Base Carcass Price Wtd. Avg. 85.58 85.07 0.60% 85.14 0.52%
Natl. Net Carcass Price Wtd. Avg. 88.15 87.58 0.65% 87.70 0.51%
Pork Cutout 200 Lbs. 85.90 84.94 1.13% 84.88 1.20%
Hams $ per cwt 69.22 67.48 2.58% 65.37 5.89%
Loins $ per cwt 89.08 88.04 1.18% 93.18 -4.40%
Bellies $ per cwt 145.38 140.01 3.84% 121.90 19.26%
72CL Pork Trim $ per cwt 68.00 64.02 6.22% 68.67 -0.98%
C Young Chicken Slaughter * Million Head 149.8 151.1 -0.87% 152.2 -1.61% 590 0.3%
H Avg. Weight (Live) Lbs. 5.88 5.68 3.52% 5.84 0.68% 5.79 2.0%
I Chicken Production (RTC) Million Lbs. 669.3 652.2 2.62% 666.8 0.38% 2,617 4.4%
C Eggs Set Million 197.8 196.2 0.83% 193.9 2.01% 787 1.7%
K Chicks Placed Million Head 163.7 162.1 1.00% 160.7 1.87% 653 1.1%
E 12-City Broiler Price Composite 99.43 98.08 1.38% 82.9 19.94%
N Georgia Dock Broiler Price 2.5-3 Lbs. 99.81 99.46 0.35% 89.9 11.02%
Northeast Breast, B/S $/cwt 137.13 137.27 -0.10% 127.04 7.94%
Northeast Legs $/cwt 66.54 66.98 -0.66% 72.07 -7.67%
T Young Turkey Slaughter * Million Head 4.404 4.198 4.91% 4.208 4.66% 16.312 0.7%
U Avg. Live Weight Lbs. 31.13 31.58 -1.42% 31.61 -1.52% 31.81 6.3%
R Turkey Production (RTC) Million Lbs. 109.6 106.0 3.40% 106.4 3.08% 413 0.2%
K Eastern Region Hen Price 8-16 Lbs. 98.00 95.50 2.62% 95.92 2.17%
G Corn, Omaha $ per Bushel 7.67 7.46 2.82% 6.49 18.18%
R DDGs, Minnesota $ per Ton 256.00 252.50 1.39% 183.00 39.89%
A Wheat, Kansas City $ per Bushel 8.00 7.92 1.01% 6.93 15.44%
I Soybeans, S. Iowa $ per Bushel 15.01 14.70 2.11% 12.22 22.83%
N Soybn Meal, 48% Decatur $ per Ton 443.90 431.70 2.83% 322.90 37.47%
* Chicken & turkey slaughter & production are 1 week earlier than the date at the top of this sheet.
** Cow and sow slaughter reflect levels from two weeks ago due to reporting lag.
The Daily Livestock Report is made possible with support from readers like you. If you enjoy reading this report and would like to
sustain it going forward, consider becoming a contributor by going to our website: www.DailyLivestockReport.com
Thank you for your support!