D F W Outlook 4 09
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The document provides an economic profile for the Dallas region in April 2009. It summarizes the key factors that contributed to the recession, including the housing crisis, financial market turmoil, and policy missteps. It presents data on the decline in home values and household wealth nationally. It also examines the impact of the recession on employment and the economy in Texas, the Dallas region, and its key sectors. While the outlook for 2009 is negative, the recovery is expected to begin in 2010, led by tech areas, trade centers, and logistics hubs like Dallas-Fort Worth.
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D F W Outlook 4 09
- 1. Economic Profile April 2009 DALLASREGIONALCHAMBER
- 2. Perfect Storm Housing Markets Financial Markets Choked Economy Policy Missteps Global Impacts Household Wealth Consumption Production Employment
- 3. S&P Case Shiller National Home Values -26.5 % Q1 2006 Peak to Q4 2008 Trough Household Net Worth ($ trillions) Stocks -$14 Housing -$5 Other +$1 Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Economy.com, S&P Case Shiller Index
- 5. States of Recession Economy.com
- 6. The Recession Comes to Texas
- 7. Nation, State, Region The national economy sets the trend for the state of Texas and DFW.
- 8. Current Conditions Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Economy.com, Texas Workforce Commission
- 10. The Texas Difference Housing Energy Exports Defense Population & Wealth: Creation v Losses
- 11. Key Sectors The outlook for most U.S. regions in 2009 is grim; employment will fall in all 50 states this year, and no area of the country will escape recession. Next year will look better, as much of the South and West see a return to moderate growth. Tech-producing areas will help lead the way. Centers of international trade and regional distribution and logistics should also stabilize as consumer demand and industrial production begin to rebound. Economy.com 4/15/09
- 12. Global DFW Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) is one of the spikes in the global economy, claiming the 12th largest metro economy in the world. DFW posts a gross metro product exceeding $300 billion, supported by a local workforce of three million and more than six million residents.
- 13. DFW Footprints Logistics & Trade Technology Advanced Services
- 14. UN 2007 Population Estimates Benchmark Metros
- 15. DFW Business Climate Detail PREVIEW DFW Rankings
- 16. Don’t panic. Do not bet against the U.S. economy. Never underestimate Texas.
Editor's Notes
- There are three particular economic strengths that this region is known for in the global economy: logistics and trade, technology, advanced services These three sectors happen to be the engines of globalizationLogistics and Trade—means and methods of moving people and things around the globeTechnology – in addition to transportation technology, provides information and communication technologies that allow dispersed operationsAdvanced Services—provide management and control of far-flung operations These core strengths get DFW the opportunity to compete in the global economy but the next generation of success requires much more.
- A total of 20 benchmark metros were identified for comparison with DFW from Australia, Asia, Europe, North and South AmericaThe selection criteria include national standings, global rankings in advanced services, presence of global airports, ability to attract workers, and existing relationships with DFW.The benchmarks range from Tokyo with 36 million residents, according to UN definitions of urban agglomerations, to Amsterdam with a population of 1 million. DFW is one of the smaller metros on this list with fewer than 5 million residents based upon the UN’s density standards. All of the leading global metros are included: Tokyo, London, New York, Paris, etc. , as well as a wide swath of second-tier all the way to emerging metros worldwide.
- The DFW region ranks in the top 10 global metros based upon a composite measure of the five key areas. DFW’s core strength within the US also shines on the global stage: Business Climate. In this one area the region ranks 2nd, tied with Atlanta and outpaced only by Singapore. As shown in the break out data, DFW performs well on all of the indicators for Business Climate but most especially in terms of costs, by any number of measures.The region also scores especially well in Quality of Life. Costs give the region particular advantages here too. But, with a nearly equally high income per capita—the region has a particularly strong case for households.DFW ranks 10th in Access and Resources. Given the critical importance of access to this region’s well-being, we would hope for a better showing here and will likely want to dig a little deeper. One of the interesting facts is that while we celebrate DFW International Airport and all of its importance in this region, we noticed that many of our competitors (especially in the top tier) have two DFW’s!Talent is the only area that DFW falls below the top 10 to take 11th position. DFW does not fall below 12th position on any one indicator, but had a majority of scores of 11th of 12th and none in the top 5. This area warrants further study to identify specific areas for improvement.