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Disinformation/Malign
Influence
Training,
Disarm
Foundation
|
2022
Session 10: risk
measurement
Disinformation/Malign Influence Training
Disarm Foundation | 2022
1
Disinformation/Malign
Influence
Training,
Disarm
Foundation
|
2022
Course structure
Understand environment
1: Introduction
2: Information and response
3: Threats
Set up project
4: Project setup
5: Data collection
Manage components
6: Influence
7: Narratives
8: Behaviours
Manage risk
9: Risk assessment
10: Risk measurement
Hotwash
Module 10: Risk measurement
● Why and what are we measuring
● Existing monitoring and evaluation
● Existing cognitive security measures
● Measurement suggestions
● Measurement tools
No exercise
2
Disinformation/Malign
Influence
Training,
Disarm
Foundation
|
2022
Why and what are we
measuring?
Create measurements for reasons, not
reasons to fit measurements
Disinformation/Malign
Influence
Training,
Disarm
Foundation
|
2022
Why measure? Some use cases
● Programme
○ Is this cognitive security program delivering value?
○ What value? How and to whom?
● Strategic
○ Is this information space healthy?
■ Is reliable information available in the places that people look for it?
■ Is the human information space fractured or coherent?
○ Does this ecosystem have reasonable immunity to disinformation moves?
○ Is the response plan adequate for the environment it’s in?
● Tactical
○ Information: What effect is an information artifact, behaviour or narrative having on
the information space, and people within it?
○ Harms: What effects is a rumour, misinformation, conspiracy, disinformation
artifact, behaviour or narrative having on the information space, and people within it?
○ Response: What effects (positive and negative) is a control (response) having?
4
INST409C:
Cognitive
Security
|
Fall
2021
|
SJ
Terp
How do you know if this is working?
Strategic: Assess overall effectiveness
● Creators
○ social share of voice
○ brand awareness
○ community fractures
● Responders
○ social share of voice
○ how well are we reducing cognitive
security risk?
○ community repairs
Tactical: Assess incident response
● Creators
○ message reach, amplification rate
○ applause rate, engagement rate etc
○ Knowledge-based: what is being discussed
○ Social network-based: who is discussing
● Responders
○ Knowledge based: how accessible (and
shared) is trusted information
○ Network based: did the disinformation
sharing slow down?
5
Disinformation/Malign
Influence
Training,
Disarm
Foundation
|
2022
Issues
Highly connected environment
● No isolation of actions and effects
○ (people are receiving information and disinformation from media, word of mouth etc,
○ with often very different responses to the same types of information),
● No isolation of responses
○ (rare to have just one team responding to information harms around an event like an election etc.,)
Partial visibility
● No one team has visibility
○ of all the effects, responses, and data needed to get a complete picture of those harms and response
● Platform visibility
○ Few teams have the full Twitter firehose
○ Facebook only gives open pages/groups
● Closed messaging systems
○ (SMS, WhatsApp, Twitter etc) = the only things we see from these are the ones reported to us
6
Disinformation/Malign
Influence
Training,
Disarm
Foundation
|
2022
What to measure
● Environment
● Risk
○ How often an event occurs x how much damage it does
○ How often = sanest to make this event-based (e.g. per incident)
○ How bad = which harms, to how many people, to which people
○ (targetted harms in a small community could be worse than across a larger one)
● Actions and responses
7
Disinformation/Malign
Influence
Training,
Disarm
Foundation
|
2022
Harms Component Landscape
● Actors
○ Nationstates, individuals, companies, DAAS
companies
● Channels
○ Where people seek, share, post information
○ Where people are encouraged to go
● Influencers
○ Not about followers: might be large influence
over smaller groups
● Groups
○ Created to create or spread disinfo. Often real
members, fake creators. Lots of themes. Often
closed groups.
● Messaging
○ Cognitive bias codex of about 200 biases:
each of these is a vulnerability
● Narratives and memes
○ Narratives designed to spread fast / be sticky.
Often on a theme, often repeated
● Tools
○ Bots, personas, network analysis, marketing
tools, IFTTT etc
8
● Verified information
● Rumours
● Misinformation
● Conspiracies
● Information voids / deserts
People and accounts:
● Seeking information - using search,
questions, influencers etc
● Sharing information through channels
● Posting information
Disinformation/Malign
Influence
Training,
Disarm
Foundation
|
2022
Measuring harm
Physical harm e.g. bodily injury, damage to physical assets (hardware,
infrastructure, etc).
Psychological harm e.g. depression, anxiety from cyber bullying, cyber stalking etc
Economic harm financial loss, e.g. from data breach, cybercrime etc
Reputational harm e.g. Organization: loss of consumers; Individual: disruption of
personal life; Country: damaged trade negotiations.
Cultural harm increase in social disruption, e.g. misinformation creating
real-world violence.
Political harm e.g. disruption in political process, government services from
e.g. internet shutdown, botnets influencing votes
9
Image: https://dai-global-digital.com/cyber-harm.html)
Plus responder harms: psychological damage, security risks
Disinformation/Malign
Influence
Training,
Disarm
Foundation
|
2022
Measuring at different phases
10
Disinformation/Malign
Influence
Training,
Disarm
Foundation
|
2022
Metrics for deciding when/how to act
11
image: UNICEF vaccine misinformation field guide
Disinformation/Malign
Influence
Training,
Disarm
Foundation
|
2022
Existing Monitoring and
Evaluation
“How am I doing today?”
Disinformation/Malign
Influence
Training,
Disarm
Foundation
|
2022
Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E)
Collection and analysis of data to determine whether a program or activity is
meeting goals set for it.
● Monitoring: collection and analysis
● Evaluation: “did this meet its objectives”
13
Disinformation/Malign
Influence
Training,
Disarm
Foundation
|
2022
Yeah, Logframes
Image https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2015/aug/17/how-to-write-a-logframe-a-beginners-guide titled
“An example logframe by Tools4dev. Photograph: Piroska Bisits Bullen/Tools4dev”
14
Disinformation/Malign
Influence
Training,
Disarm
Foundation
|
2022
(Thanks, Guardian)
“A standard logframe is divided into four rows, which are your long- to short-term objectives ranging from top to bottom:
● Goal (overall aim).
● Outcome/Purpose (what will be achieved, who will benefit, and by when).
● Outputs (specific results the project will generate).
● Activities (what tasks need to be done in order for the output to be achieved).
These are achieved and measured by the headings from left to right:
● Project summary (explaining the objectives).
● Objectively verifiable indicators (how you’ll measure the achievements).
● Means of verification (how you’ll collect the information for the indicators).
● Risks and assumptions (external conditions needed to get results).”
(https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2015/aug/17/how-to-write-a-logframe-a-begi
nners-guide)
15
Disinformation/Malign
Influence
Training,
Disarm
Foundation
|
2022
Marketing M&E
16
Disinformation/Malign
Influence
Training,
Disarm
Foundation
|
2022
Marketing: sales funnels
17
Disinformation/Malign
Influence
Training,
Disarm
Foundation
|
2022
Marketing: Customer segmentation and targetting
18
Disinformation/Malign
Influence
Training,
Disarm
Foundation
|
2022
Existing cognitive
security measures
Disinformation/Malign
Influence
Training,
Disarm
Foundation
|
2022
UK Government: RESIST
Objective Metrics Effectiveness
Reach the audience vulnerable to a specific piece
of disinformation.
Demographic information on the types of people engaging with your content. Output
Present them with engaging information that
captures their attention.
The amount of time people spend viewing information (dwell time), the extent to which
they engage with that information (likes, comments, shares).
Output
Direct them to a more in-depth source of legitimate
information.
The click-through rate (the number of people who click on a link to more in-depth
information), the amount of time people spend viewing that information (dwell time).
Output
Increase the proportion of reporting or online
activity that references your communications and
messages.
The extent to which your communications are accessible and available in public
discourse – for example, of the articles covering an issue or topic, how many reference
your message/communications?
Output
Build audience resilience to a specific piece of
disinformation and enhance their ability to think
critically.
The number of people engaging with a specific piece of disinformation (is it decreasing
or increasing?)
Outcome
Change audience views, attitudes and perceptions
about a particular issue or topic.
Survey and polling data on the views, attitudes and perceptions of your target
audience.
Outcome
Change the way in which the audience behaves. The number of people amongst your target audience who are changing their behaviour
(examples include quitting smoking, getting vaccinated, applying to become a teacher).
Outcome
20
Disinformation/Malign
Influence
Training,
Disarm
Foundation
|
2022
Influencers and websites: Social network models
● Change in followers over time
● Post reach - who is mentioning an article
● Social share of voice: mentions vs other influencer mentions
● Direct (@word) vs indirect (word)
● Applause rate: likes and follows
21
Disinformation/Malign
Influence
Training,
Disarm
Foundation
|
2022
UNICEF: Infodemic Measures
22
Disinformation/Malign
Influence
Training,
Disarm
Foundation
|
2022
FullFact levels of risk
Levels:
1. Business as normal, no additional response needed
2. Monitor and prepare external facing responses
3. An incident is occurring, responses ramp up
4. An incident is occurring, coordinated responses start
5. Maximum response levels and cooperation required
Criteria:
● Reach
● Subject matter
● Urgency of response
● Collaboration
Disinformation/Malign
Influence
Training,
Disarm
Foundation
|
2022
Politics: ad (non) transparency
24
Disinformation/Malign
Influence
Training,
Disarm
Foundation
|
2022
Social Network Analysis: network contagion
● Image: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Social_Network_Analysis_Visualization.png
25
Disinformation/Malign
Influence
Training,
Disarm
Foundation
|
2022
Measurement
suggestions
Disinformation/Malign
Influence
Training,
Disarm
Foundation
|
2022
Performance metrics, Effectiveness metrics
Measures of performance (MoP):
● “are we doing things right”
● evidence of impacts
● Impressions, page views, reach, frequency
Measures of effectiveness (MoE):
● “are we doing the right things”
● verifiable changes
● shifts in knowledge, attitudes, behaviour
Indicator:
● Piece of information that tells us more about an MoE or MoP
27
Disinformation/Malign
Influence
Training,
Disarm
Foundation
|
2022
Measures of performance by category
● Content focussed:
○ Number of misinformation articles/ messages (how many, by source / channel)
○ Number of counter messages created
● View focussed:
○ Impressions: number of views of content
○ Page views: of websites/ webpages
○ Volume of misinformation identified and logged
● People focussed:
○ Reach: number of people who saw content
○ Frequency: number of times people saw content and/or number of times content was posted or shared
○ Number of organizations/ leaders/ influencers recruited to disseminate messages
○ Number of people trained/ given technical assistance
28
Disinformation/Malign
Influence
Training,
Disarm
Foundation
|
2022
Measures of effectiveness by category
● Content
○ Relevance and credibility of messages (target audience receptivity)
● Awareness
○ Misinformation awareness (recall, exposure)
○ Counter awareness (inoculation, counter messages)
● Knowledge
○ Belief in misinformation (trust in sources, and messages)
○ Knowledge of facts and resources (e.g. local resources, priority facts)
● Action/ Attitude
○ Intent to act (vote, vaccinate etc)
○ Attitude to authorities (trust in influencers, institutions etc)
○ Hesitancy (hesitancy to vote, vaccinate etc)
○ Action coverage (votes, inoculations etc)
29
Disinformation/Malign
Influence
Training,
Disarm
Foundation
|
2022
Communication Effectiveness
RESIST: “in principle, counter disinformation campaigns should aim to achieve the five objectives set
out below:
● reach the audience vulnerable to a specific piece of mis- or disinformation (output);
● present that information in a manner which engages the audience and captures their
attention (output);
● direct the the audience to an alternative source of information that is both legitimate and
credible (output);
● increase the proportion of reporting or online activity that references your
communications or information from your communications (output);
● build their resilience whilst enhancing their ability to think critically about the information
they encounter (outcome);
● change their attitudes, perceptions and behaviours towards a particular issue or topic
(outcome).”
30
Disinformation/Malign
Influence
Training,
Disarm
Foundation
|
2022
Measure Caldiani’s 6 universal truths
Caldiani’s truths can be useful mechanisms to monitor for these, e.g.
○ Liking: “people like those who like them”
○ Reciprocity: “people repay in kind”
○ Social proof: “people follow the lead of similar others”
○ Scarcity: “people want more of what they can have less of”
○ Authority: “people defer to experts”
○ Consistency: “people align with their clear commitments”.
31
Disinformation/Malign
Influence
Training,
Disarm
Foundation
|
2022
Other response types: Risk-based metrics
E.g.
● Changes in loss frequency
● Changes in potential losses
32
Disinformation/Malign
Influence
Training,
Disarm
Foundation
|
2022
Measurement tools
Disinformation/Malign
Influence
Training,
Disarm
Foundation
|
2022
Metric gathering methods
● Data analysis
● Tiplines
● Surveys
● Chatbots
34
Disinformation/Malign
Influence
Training,
Disarm
Foundation
|
2022
Other Tools
Social listening
● Meltwater and friends
Response
● Adtech tools
35

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