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Cross the Traction Gap with Lean Discovery

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Javier Rincon
Javier Rincon

Learn how to cross the Traction Gap with your Startup with the Lean Discovery method.

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Crossing the Traction Gap with Lean Discovery Javier Rincon javier@goleancrush.com
www.goleancrush.com Agenda
www.goleancrush.com 1. Intro and Goals (5 mins) 2. Lean Discovery (25 mins) 3. Hands-on (2h25) 4. Wrap-up (5 min) Agenda
www.goleancrush.com JAVIER RINCON Lean Product Leader, Entrepreneur, Startup Advisor +4y Corporate & Startup Builder +12y in VC-backed startups & 3 startups launched +3y Funding & Mentoring (acquired by Microsoft) (acquired by Webedia) (acquired by Threadless) (acquired by Viacom)
www.goleancrush.com “Grown millions of users and revenue for clients”
www.goleancrush.com NPS 9/10 excellent
www.goleancrush.com
www.goleancrush.com Goals for today 1. To provide first principles understanding 2. To provide actionable process 3. To put process into practice
1. Understanding progress
www.goleancrush.com The startup lifecycle
www.goleancrush.com Create a financial product for investors The Business Model Canvas designed by: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Revenue Streams Customer Segments Value Propositions Key Activities Key Partners Cost Structure Customer Relationships Designed by: Date: Version: Designed for: Channels Key Resources CREATE DELIVER CAPTURE Captured Value Created Value Cost Delivery > >= (Desirability) (Feasability) (Viability)
www.goleancrush.com Create repeatable business traction The rate at which your model captures monetizable value from it users
www.goleancrush.com Delivered by a Customer Factory ACQUISITION ACTIVATION REVENUE RETENTION REFERRAL UNAWARE VISITOR HAPPY CUSTOMERS Scaling Lean Ash Maura
www.goleancrush.com Maximize (likelihood of) throughput while you minimize costs LIFETIME VALUE Custom er Factory INVENTORY COCA OPERATING EXPENSES Scaling Lean Ash Maura
www.goleancrush.com Before you run out of money… OPTIMIZE SCALE Minimize time to traction. -> Must reduce waste. *waste= any action that does not add value to the customer
www.goleancrush.com The dangerous Traction Gap GO-TO-PRODUCT GO-TO-MARKET GO-TO-SCALE idea product traction scale IPR MVP MVR MVT MOST SOME Crossing the Traction Gap
www.goleancrush.com “Being in a good market with a product that can satisfy that market.” - Marc Andreessen Netscape Get to P-M Fit or die
www.goleancrush.com Specific Signals of Market-Product Fit OPTIMIZE SCALE Leading indicator Survey Leading indicator Engagement Retention Curve 40% Ellis Test NPS Actions related core purpose % active over time flattens FIDELITY
2. Constraints & Keys to Victory
www.goleancrush.com “There’s just one mistake that kills startups - not making something users want." - Paul Graham, YC 42%
www.goleancrush.com #1- Choosing the wrong market #2- Building the wrong things #3- Chasing after meaningless growth #4- Premature scaling before repeatability #4 psychological pitfalls that lead us to failure Sachin Rekhi
www.goleancrush.com Choosing the right market is hard 1 Sourced from Strategyzer
www.goleancrush.com All your ideas are based on assumptions The Business Model Canvas designed by: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Revenue Streams Customer Segments Value Propositions Key Activities Key Partners Cost Structure Customer Relationships Designed by: Date: Version: Designed for: Channels Key Resources 2
www.goleancrush.com The Business Model Canvas designed by: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Revenue Streams Customer Segments Value Propositions Key Activities Key Partners Cost Structure Customer Relationships Designed by: Date: Version: Designed for: Channels Key Resources The Business Model Canvas designed by: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Revenue Streams Customer Segments Value Propositions Key Activities Key Partners Cost Structure Customer Relationships Designed by: Date: Version: Designed for: Channels Key Resources The Business Model Canvas designed by: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Revenue Streams Customer Segments Value Propositions Key Activities Key Partners Cost Structure Customer Relationships Designed by: Date: Version: Designed for: Channels Key Resources The Business Model Canvas designed by: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Revenue Streams Customer Segments Value Propositions Key Activities Key Partners Cost Structure Customer Relationships Designed by: Date: Version: Designed for: Channels Key Resources The Business Model Canvas designed by: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Revenue Streams Customer Segments Value Propositions Key Activities Key Partners Cost Structure Customer Relationships Designed by: Date: Version: Designed for: Channels Key Resources The Business Model Canvas designed by: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Revenue Streams Customer Segments Value Propositions Key Activities Key Partners Cost Structure Customer Relationships Designed by: Date: Version: Designed for: Channels Key Resources By continuously transforming assumptions into data. Quickly, cheaply and accurately locate value. 3
www.goleancrush.com Test & discover the best. Discontinue the rest DISCOVERY 4%-10% 25.3% 64.8% YOUR JOB PRODUCTION …. …. SCALE! 4
www.goleancrush.com Locate value, before trying to extract it BUILD- DRIVEN TEST- DRIVEN RULE 1
www.goleancrush.com Locate & extract the 
 "right value” at small scale Setup operations to extract value "at scale” 1st- FIND FIT 2nd- SCALE Validate at small scale, before scaling RULE 2
3. The Process
www.goleancrush.com Lean Discovery follows the scientific method Model Risk Test Gain Creators Pain Relievers Pains Gains Products & Services Customer Job(s) Value Proposition Customer Segment copyright: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer The Value Proposition Canvas strategyzer.com Gain Creators Pain Relievers Pains Gains Products & Services Customer Job(s) Value Proposition Customer Segment copyright: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer The Value Proposition Canvas strategyzer.com X X X Y Y Y Build Measure Learn Validated Invalidated
www.goleancrush.com ≈ ≈ A. MODELING B. MODEL VALIDATION Business Model (4 fits) Traction Model Customer Factory Model Opportunity Roadmap Discovery Delivery Ideas Repository Discovery Roadmap Delivery Roadmap To Delivery Lean Sprints SCRUM Sprints Release Every 2 weeks Every 1 week 1 story + 1 previz + 1 viz Every 1 week Value Proposition / JTBD on discovery JAVIER RINCON’S PRODUCT-MARKET FIT ENGINE SOR SCIENTIFIC METHOD OF PRODUCT-MARKET FIT DISCOVERY AND VALIDATION Javier Rincon
www.goleancrush.com The 2-week Lean Sprint Model Roadmap assumpt. Prioritize Experiments START OF WEEK REST OF TIME Build Measure Learn Build Measure Learn Build Measure Learn Scaling Lean Ash Maurya
www.goleancrush.com 1. Define your model
www.goleancrush.com Gain Creators Pain Relievers Pains Gains Products & Services Customer Job(s) Value Proposition Customer Segment The Value Proposition Canvas USEFUL (WHAT) USABLE (HOW) MEANINGFUL (WHY) USABLE (HOW) MEANINGFUL (WHY) The Value Proposition Canvas PRODUCT GAIN CREATORS PAIN RELIEVERS
www.goleancrush.com The Business Model Canvas The Business Model Canvas designed by: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Revenue Streams Customer Segments Value Propositions Key Activities Key Partners Cost Structure Customer Relationships Designed by: Date: Version: Designed for: Channels Key Resources
www.goleancrush.com Map your existing model The Business Model Canvas designed by: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Revenue Streams Customer Segments Value Propositions Key Activities Key Partners Cost Structure Customer Relationships Designed by: Date: Version: Designed for: Channels Key Resources Drones delivering crop data Farmers Profitable harvest Manage and treat fields Diseases Forecast production Improve & forecast harvest Targeted interventions Hyper spectral image data EXAMPLE EXAMPLE Startup sourced from Steven Blank
www.goleancrush.com The Jobs to be Done Canvas STEP 2 JTBD STEP STEP 1 STEP 3 STEP 4 … Situation/Trigger Desire Outcome # # EXISTING HIRES # # Pain Pain Gain Pain UNMET NEEDS # # # Time/effort Accuracy Cost EXTRA
www.goleancrush.com 2. Prioritize Riskiest Assumption
www.goleancrush.com 1st: Look for assumptions: “what needs to be true for this idea to work?” The Business Model Canvas designed by: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Revenue Streams Customer Segments Value Propositions Key Activities Key Partners Cost Structure Customer Relationships Designed by: Date: Version: Designed for: Channels Key Resources Drones delivering crop data Farmers Profitable harvest Manage and treat fields Diseases Forecast production Improve & forecast harvest Targeted interventions Hyper spectral image data ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? www.goleancrush.com EXAMPLE
www.goleancrush.com 3 types of assumptions: The Business Model Canvas designed by: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Revenue Streams Customer Segments Value Propositions Key Activities Key Partners Cost Structure Customer Relationships Designed by: Date: Version: Designed for: Channels Key Resources DESIRABILITY FEASABILITY VIABILITY Strategyzer
www.goleancrush.com 2nd: Write all assumptions down Drones can deliver images Software can sticks field images Right data can be extracted Data can be usably presentable Farmers will use data to treat fields Farmers will use data for interventions Farmers interested in more data for fields Farmers want to forecast production Farmers have a budget for us Farmers willing to pay for data Farmers struggle with diseases The Business Model Canvas designed by: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Revenue Streams Customer Segments Value Propositions Key Activities Key Partners Cost Structure Customer Relationships Designed by: Date: Version: Designed for: Channels Key Resources Drones delivering crop data Farmers Profitable harvest Manage and treat fields Diseases Forecast production Improve & forecast harvest Targeted interventions Hyper spectral image data The Business Model Canvas designed by: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Revenue Streams Customer Segments Value Propositions Key Activities Key Partners Cost Structure Customer Relationships Designed by: Date: Version: Designed for: Channels Key Resources EXAMPLE
www.goleancrush.com 3rd: Identify Riskiest Assumptions + Critical
 + Validation VALIDATE NOW Not relevant if riskiest are invalidated www.goleancrush.com - Validation - Critical
 Canvas form inspired by David Bland
www.goleancrush.com The Business Model Canvas designed by: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Revenue Streams Customer Segments Value Propositions Key Activities Key Partners Cost Structure Customer Relationships Designed by: Date: Version: Designed for: Channels Key Resources Gain Creators Pain Relievers Pains Gains Products & Services Customer Job(s) Value Proposition Customer Segment copyright: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer The Value Proposition Canvas strategyzer.com The Business Model Canvas designed by: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Revenue Streams Customer Segments Value Propositions Key Activities Key Partners Cost Structure Customer Relationships Designed by: Date: Version: Designed for: Channels Key Resources Gain Creators Pain Relievers Pains Gains Products & Services Customer Job(s) Value Proposition Customer Segment copyright: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer The Value Proposition Canvas strategyzer.com The Business Model Canvas designed by: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Revenue Streams Customer Segments Value Propositions Key Activities Key Partners Cost Structure Customer Relationships Designed by: Date: Version: Designed for: Channels Key Resources The Business Model Canvas designed by: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Revenue Streams Customer Segments Value Propositions Key Activities Key Partners Cost Structure Customer Relationships Designed by: Date: Version: Designed for: Channels Key Resources CRITICAL SCALE VALIDATION SCALE OPINION EXPERT/MARKET/ MODEL DATA QUALITATIVE PROOF QUANTITATIVE PROOF + - + - Javier Rincon
www.goleancrush.com + Critical:
 + Certainty: Farmers interested in data for fields Farmers have a budget for us Farmers willing to pay for data Farmers want to forecast production Farmers struggle with diseases Drones can deliver images Right data can be extracted Data can be usably presentable 4th: Prioritize your assumptions Farmers will use data to treat fields EXAMPLE Canvas form inspired by David Bland
www.goleancrush.com 5th: Create your Assumptions Roadmap NEW ASSUMPTIONS ROADMAP Farmers interested in data for fields Farmers struggle with diseases Farmers willing to pay for data Farmers want to forecast production PRODUCT ROADMAP …. Build Drones Engineer super complex solution Create API for Data Pipeline Try to sell to Farmers re-organize www.goleancrush.com EXAMPLE
www.goleancrush.com 3. Define your Minimum ViableTest
www.goleancrush.com An MVT validates an assumption in a controlled/iterative manner with data Assumption Experiment (IDEAS) (PRODUCT) (DATA) Validated TRUE Validated FALSE Lean Startup Eric Ries
www.goleancrush.com 1) Well defined: Clear on what it wants to learn 2) Quick & cheap: Early on to avoid waste 3) Minimal: Optimized for focused learning A good MVT is: Build Measure Learn Inspired by Steve Blank
www.goleancrush.com Hypothesis to test Experiment that produces evidence to support/reject Metrics used to measure evidence Threshold to assess and label validated or invalidated Customer segment cares about struggle with problem y Talk to 50 prospects and give trackable URL to solution # of customers who clicked on URL Validated if 25 or more customers clicked on the URL Components of an MVT Strategyzer Test Card
www.goleancrush.com MVT Escalation Customer interviews, Surveys… Problem Demand Test, Clickable Prototypes… Wizard of Oz, No-code… Product Dev… Solution MVR IPR/MVP + FIDELITY, RESOURCES
www.goleancrush.com How can we learn that but faster/cheaper? 30 DAYS $$$ 2 DAYS $
www.goleancrush.com Buy drone Engineering to integrate Buy processing software Buy spectral camera COSTLY TIME CONSUMING Hire existing planes Hand-process data fly over farm fields Attach cameras to planes CHEAP QUICK EXAMPLE
www.goleancrush.com Brainstorm, Rank and Prioritize + - Strategyzer Test Card
www.goleancrush.com Brainstorm, Rank and Prioritize + - Strategyzer Test Card
www.goleancrush.com Take your #1 MVT and Storyboard it Step 1- Receive drones Buy drones & spectral cameras Step 2 - Scan field Step 3- Receive data Step 4- etc. Program to field Integrate Data APIs etc. User story User story User story User story … … … … Backstage Frontstage EXAMPLE
www.goleancrush.com Identify biggest constraints to time/budget Step 1- Receive drones Buy drones & spectral cameras Step 2 - Scan field Step 3- Receive data Step 4- etc. Program to field Integrate Data APIs etc. User story User story User story User story … … … … Backstage Frontstage High EXAMPLE Mid High
www.goleancrush.com Minimize MVT with alternative steps Use planes with cameras Buy cheap cameras Fly over field Receive data Step 4- etc. - Hand-stich data etc. User story User story User story User story … … … … Backstage Frontstage Low - Low EXAMPLE
www.goleancrush.com Design your MVTs EXAMPLE Lo-fi Hi-fi
www.goleancrush.com iii) Learn and Iterate WHAT WE THOUGHT WHAT WE FOUND OUT WHAT’S NEXT Next test Pivot Zoom in ADD THIS TO YOUR WEEKLIES! 5 whys Validated TRUE Validated FALSE
4. Hands-on Practice START OF REST OF
www.goleancrush.com Go to your FigmaJam Canvas. Work time :)
www.goleancrush.com REFERENCES 1. All content has been created and integrated by Javier Rincon (JR) sourcing back to 2009 (LS Incubator) & 2010 with Proudsugar (CRO Agency). 2. Some of JR’s models have been merged with or inspired by the sources below. But all have been heavily expanded by Javier Rincon through 100’s of tests across 15 years. 1. Steve Blank - The 4 Steps to the Epiphany 2. Eric Ries Lean Startup 3. Brian Balfour - 4 Fit Model 4. Ash Mauyra - Lean Startup, Scaling Lean 5. Strategyzer - Business Model Generation, Value Proposition Canvas 6. David Bland - Assumptions Canvas 7. Founder Institute Assumptions 8. Conversion Rate Experts & MECLabs
Sprint your way to traction with Lean Business Discovery. javier@goleancrush.com @javierrincon QUESTIONS?

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Cross the Traction Gap with Lean Discovery

  • 1. Crossing the Traction Gap with Lean Discovery Javier Rincon javier@goleancrush.com
  • 3. www.goleancrush.com 1. Intro and Goals (5 mins) 2. Lean Discovery (25 mins) 3. Hands-on (2h25) 4. Wrap-up (5 min) Agenda
  • 4. www.goleancrush.com JAVIER RINCON Lean Product Leader, Entrepreneur, Startup Advisor +4y Corporate & Startup Builder +12y in VC-backed startups & 3 startups launched +3y Funding & Mentoring (acquired by Microsoft) (acquired by Webedia) (acquired by Threadless) (acquired by Viacom)
  • 5. www.goleancrush.com “Grown millions of users and revenue for clients”
  • 8. www.goleancrush.com Goals for today 1. To provide first principles understanding 2. To provide actionable process 3. To put process into practice
  • 11. www.goleancrush.com Create a financial product for investors The Business Model Canvas designed by: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Revenue Streams Customer Segments Value Propositions Key Activities Key Partners Cost Structure Customer Relationships Designed by: Date: Version: Designed for: Channels Key Resources CREATE DELIVER CAPTURE Captured Value Created Value Cost Delivery > >= (Desirability) (Feasability) (Viability)
  • 12. www.goleancrush.com Create repeatable business traction The rate at which your model captures monetizable value from it users
  • 13. www.goleancrush.com Delivered by a Customer Factory ACQUISITION ACTIVATION REVENUE RETENTION REFERRAL UNAWARE VISITOR HAPPY CUSTOMERS Scaling Lean Ash Maura
  • 14. www.goleancrush.com Maximize (likelihood of) throughput while you minimize costs LIFETIME VALUE Custom er Factory INVENTORY COCA OPERATING EXPENSES Scaling Lean Ash Maura
  • 15. www.goleancrush.com Before you run out of money… OPTIMIZE SCALE Minimize time to traction. -> Must reduce waste. *waste= any action that does not add value to the customer
  • 16. www.goleancrush.com The dangerous Traction Gap GO-TO-PRODUCT GO-TO-MARKET GO-TO-SCALE idea product traction scale IPR MVP MVR MVT MOST SOME Crossing the Traction Gap
  • 17. www.goleancrush.com “Being in a good market with a product that can satisfy that market.” - Marc Andreessen Netscape Get to P-M Fit or die
  • 18. www.goleancrush.com Specific Signals of Market-Product Fit OPTIMIZE SCALE Leading indicator Survey Leading indicator Engagement Retention Curve 40% Ellis Test NPS Actions related core purpose % active over time flattens FIDELITY
  • 19. 2. Constraints & Keys to Victory
  • 20. www.goleancrush.com “There’s just one mistake that kills startups - not making something users want." - Paul Graham, YC 42%
  • 21. www.goleancrush.com #1- Choosing the wrong market #2- Building the wrong things #3- Chasing after meaningless growth #4- Premature scaling before repeatability #4 psychological pitfalls that lead us to failure Sachin Rekhi
  • 22. www.goleancrush.com Choosing the right market is hard 1 Sourced from Strategyzer
  • 23. www.goleancrush.com All your ideas are based on assumptions The Business Model Canvas designed by: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Revenue Streams Customer Segments Value Propositions Key Activities Key Partners Cost Structure Customer Relationships Designed by: Date: Version: Designed for: Channels Key Resources 2
  • 24. www.goleancrush.com The Business Model Canvas designed by: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Revenue Streams Customer Segments Value Propositions Key Activities Key Partners Cost Structure Customer Relationships Designed by: Date: Version: Designed for: Channels Key Resources The Business Model Canvas designed by: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Revenue Streams Customer Segments Value Propositions Key Activities Key Partners Cost Structure Customer Relationships Designed by: Date: Version: Designed for: Channels Key Resources The Business Model Canvas designed by: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Revenue Streams Customer Segments Value Propositions Key Activities Key Partners Cost Structure Customer Relationships Designed by: Date: Version: Designed for: Channels Key Resources The Business Model Canvas designed by: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Revenue Streams Customer Segments Value Propositions Key Activities Key Partners Cost Structure Customer Relationships Designed by: Date: Version: Designed for: Channels Key Resources The Business Model Canvas designed by: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Revenue Streams Customer Segments Value Propositions Key Activities Key Partners Cost Structure Customer Relationships Designed by: Date: Version: Designed for: Channels Key Resources The Business Model Canvas designed by: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Revenue Streams Customer Segments Value Propositions Key Activities Key Partners Cost Structure Customer Relationships Designed by: Date: Version: Designed for: Channels Key Resources By continuously transforming assumptions into data. Quickly, cheaply and accurately locate value. 3
  • 25. www.goleancrush.com Test & discover the best. Discontinue the rest DISCOVERY 4%-10% 25.3% 64.8% YOUR JOB PRODUCTION …. …. SCALE! 4
  • 26. www.goleancrush.com Locate value, before trying to extract it BUILD- DRIVEN TEST- DRIVEN RULE 1
  • 27. www.goleancrush.com Locate & extract the 
 "right value” at small scale Setup operations to extract value "at scale” 1st- FIND FIT 2nd- SCALE Validate at small scale, before scaling RULE 2
  • 29. www.goleancrush.com Lean Discovery follows the scientific method Model Risk Test Gain Creators Pain Relievers Pains Gains Products & Services Customer Job(s) Value Proposition Customer Segment copyright: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer The Value Proposition Canvas strategyzer.com Gain Creators Pain Relievers Pains Gains Products & Services Customer Job(s) Value Proposition Customer Segment copyright: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer The Value Proposition Canvas strategyzer.com X X X Y Y Y Build Measure Learn Validated Invalidated
  • 30. www.goleancrush.com ≈ ≈ A. MODELING B. MODEL VALIDATION Business Model (4 fits) Traction Model Customer Factory Model Opportunity Roadmap Discovery Delivery Ideas Repository Discovery Roadmap Delivery Roadmap To Delivery Lean Sprints SCRUM Sprints Release Every 2 weeks Every 1 week 1 story + 1 previz + 1 viz Every 1 week Value Proposition / JTBD on discovery JAVIER RINCON’S PRODUCT-MARKET FIT ENGINE SOR SCIENTIFIC METHOD OF PRODUCT-MARKET FIT DISCOVERY AND VALIDATION Javier Rincon
  • 31. www.goleancrush.com The 2-week Lean Sprint Model Roadmap assumpt. Prioritize Experiments START OF WEEK REST OF TIME Build Measure Learn Build Measure Learn Build Measure Learn Scaling Lean Ash Maurya
  • 33. www.goleancrush.com Gain Creators Pain Relievers Pains Gains Products & Services Customer Job(s) Value Proposition Customer Segment The Value Proposition Canvas USEFUL (WHAT) USABLE (HOW) MEANINGFUL (WHY) USABLE (HOW) MEANINGFUL (WHY) The Value Proposition Canvas PRODUCT GAIN CREATORS PAIN RELIEVERS
  • 34. www.goleancrush.com The Business Model Canvas The Business Model Canvas designed by: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Revenue Streams Customer Segments Value Propositions Key Activities Key Partners Cost Structure Customer Relationships Designed by: Date: Version: Designed for: Channels Key Resources
  • 35. www.goleancrush.com Map your existing model The Business Model Canvas designed by: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Revenue Streams Customer Segments Value Propositions Key Activities Key Partners Cost Structure Customer Relationships Designed by: Date: Version: Designed for: Channels Key Resources Drones delivering crop data Farmers Profitable harvest Manage and treat fields Diseases Forecast production Improve & forecast harvest Targeted interventions Hyper spectral image data EXAMPLE EXAMPLE Startup sourced from Steven Blank
  • 36. www.goleancrush.com The Jobs to be Done Canvas STEP 2 JTBD STEP STEP 1 STEP 3 STEP 4 … Situation/Trigger Desire Outcome # # EXISTING HIRES # # Pain Pain Gain Pain UNMET NEEDS # # # Time/effort Accuracy Cost EXTRA
  • 38. www.goleancrush.com 1st: Look for assumptions: “what needs to be true for this idea to work?” The Business Model Canvas designed by: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Revenue Streams Customer Segments Value Propositions Key Activities Key Partners Cost Structure Customer Relationships Designed by: Date: Version: Designed for: Channels Key Resources Drones delivering crop data Farmers Profitable harvest Manage and treat fields Diseases Forecast production Improve & forecast harvest Targeted interventions Hyper spectral image data ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? www.goleancrush.com EXAMPLE
  • 39. www.goleancrush.com 3 types of assumptions: The Business Model Canvas designed by: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Revenue Streams Customer Segments Value Propositions Key Activities Key Partners Cost Structure Customer Relationships Designed by: Date: Version: Designed for: Channels Key Resources DESIRABILITY FEASABILITY VIABILITY Strategyzer
  • 40. www.goleancrush.com 2nd: Write all assumptions down Drones can deliver images Software can sticks field images Right data can be extracted Data can be usably presentable Farmers will use data to treat fields Farmers will use data for interventions Farmers interested in more data for fields Farmers want to forecast production Farmers have a budget for us Farmers willing to pay for data Farmers struggle with diseases The Business Model Canvas designed by: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Revenue Streams Customer Segments Value Propositions Key Activities Key Partners Cost Structure Customer Relationships Designed by: Date: Version: Designed for: Channels Key Resources Drones delivering crop data Farmers Profitable harvest Manage and treat fields Diseases Forecast production Improve & forecast harvest Targeted interventions Hyper spectral image data The Business Model Canvas designed by: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Revenue Streams Customer Segments Value Propositions Key Activities Key Partners Cost Structure Customer Relationships Designed by: Date: Version: Designed for: Channels Key Resources EXAMPLE
  • 41. www.goleancrush.com 3rd: Identify Riskiest Assumptions + Critical
 + Validation VALIDATE NOW Not relevant if riskiest are invalidated www.goleancrush.com - Validation - Critical
 Canvas form inspired by David Bland
  • 42. www.goleancrush.com The Business Model Canvas designed by: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Revenue Streams Customer Segments Value Propositions Key Activities Key Partners Cost Structure Customer Relationships Designed by: Date: Version: Designed for: Channels Key Resources Gain Creators Pain Relievers Pains Gains Products & Services Customer Job(s) Value Proposition Customer Segment copyright: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer The Value Proposition Canvas strategyzer.com The Business Model Canvas designed by: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Revenue Streams Customer Segments Value Propositions Key Activities Key Partners Cost Structure Customer Relationships Designed by: Date: Version: Designed for: Channels Key Resources Gain Creators Pain Relievers Pains Gains Products & Services Customer Job(s) Value Proposition Customer Segment copyright: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer The Value Proposition Canvas strategyzer.com The Business Model Canvas designed by: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Revenue Streams Customer Segments Value Propositions Key Activities Key Partners Cost Structure Customer Relationships Designed by: Date: Version: Designed for: Channels Key Resources The Business Model Canvas designed by: Strategyzer AG The makers of Business Model Generation and Strategyzer This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA. strategyzer.com Revenue Streams Customer Segments Value Propositions Key Activities Key Partners Cost Structure Customer Relationships Designed by: Date: Version: Designed for: Channels Key Resources CRITICAL SCALE VALIDATION SCALE OPINION EXPERT/MARKET/ MODEL DATA QUALITATIVE PROOF QUANTITATIVE PROOF + - + - Javier Rincon
  • 43. www.goleancrush.com + Critical:
 + Certainty: Farmers interested in data for fields Farmers have a budget for us Farmers willing to pay for data Farmers want to forecast production Farmers struggle with diseases Drones can deliver images Right data can be extracted Data can be usably presentable 4th: Prioritize your assumptions Farmers will use data to treat fields EXAMPLE Canvas form inspired by David Bland
  • 44. www.goleancrush.com 5th: Create your Assumptions Roadmap NEW ASSUMPTIONS ROADMAP Farmers interested in data for fields Farmers struggle with diseases Farmers willing to pay for data Farmers want to forecast production PRODUCT ROADMAP …. Build Drones Engineer super complex solution Create API for Data Pipeline Try to sell to Farmers re-organize www.goleancrush.com EXAMPLE
  • 46. www.goleancrush.com An MVT validates an assumption in a controlled/iterative manner with data Assumption Experiment (IDEAS) (PRODUCT) (DATA) Validated TRUE Validated FALSE Lean Startup Eric Ries
  • 47. www.goleancrush.com 1) Well defined: Clear on what it wants to learn 2) Quick & cheap: Early on to avoid waste 3) Minimal: Optimized for focused learning A good MVT is: Build Measure Learn Inspired by Steve Blank
  • 48. www.goleancrush.com Hypothesis to test Experiment that produces evidence to support/reject Metrics used to measure evidence Threshold to assess and label validated or invalidated Customer segment cares about struggle with problem y Talk to 50 prospects and give trackable URL to solution # of customers who clicked on URL Validated if 25 or more customers clicked on the URL Components of an MVT Strategyzer Test Card
  • 49. www.goleancrush.com MVT Escalation Customer interviews, Surveys… Problem Demand Test, Clickable Prototypes… Wizard of Oz, No-code… Product Dev… Solution MVR IPR/MVP + FIDELITY, RESOURCES
  • 50. www.goleancrush.com How can we learn that but faster/cheaper? 30 DAYS $$$ 2 DAYS $
  • 51. www.goleancrush.com Buy drone Engineering to integrate Buy processing software Buy spectral camera COSTLY TIME CONSUMING Hire existing planes Hand-process data fly over farm fields Attach cameras to planes CHEAP QUICK EXAMPLE
  • 52. www.goleancrush.com Brainstorm, Rank and Prioritize + - Strategyzer Test Card
  • 53. www.goleancrush.com Brainstorm, Rank and Prioritize + - Strategyzer Test Card
  • 54. www.goleancrush.com Take your #1 MVT and Storyboard it Step 1- Receive drones Buy drones & spectral cameras Step 2 - Scan field Step 3- Receive data Step 4- etc. Program to field Integrate Data APIs etc. User story User story User story User story … … … … Backstage Frontstage EXAMPLE
  • 55. www.goleancrush.com Identify biggest constraints to time/budget Step 1- Receive drones Buy drones & spectral cameras Step 2 - Scan field Step 3- Receive data Step 4- etc. Program to field Integrate Data APIs etc. User story User story User story User story … … … … Backstage Frontstage High EXAMPLE Mid High
  • 56. www.goleancrush.com Minimize MVT with alternative steps Use planes with cameras Buy cheap cameras Fly over field Receive data Step 4- etc. - Hand-stich data etc. User story User story User story User story … … … … Backstage Frontstage Low - Low EXAMPLE
  • 58. www.goleancrush.com iii) Learn and Iterate WHAT WE THOUGHT WHAT WE FOUND OUT WHAT’S NEXT Next test Pivot Zoom in ADD THIS TO YOUR WEEKLIES! 5 whys Validated TRUE Validated FALSE
  • 60. www.goleancrush.com Go to your FigmaJam Canvas. Work time :)
  • 61. www.goleancrush.com REFERENCES 1. All content has been created and integrated by Javier Rincon (JR) sourcing back to 2009 (LS Incubator) & 2010 with Proudsugar (CRO Agency). 2. Some of JR’s models have been merged with or inspired by the sources below. But all have been heavily expanded by Javier Rincon through 100’s of tests across 15 years. 1. Steve Blank - The 4 Steps to the Epiphany 2. Eric Ries Lean Startup 3. Brian Balfour - 4 Fit Model 4. Ash Mauyra - Lean Startup, Scaling Lean 5. Strategyzer - Business Model Generation, Value Proposition Canvas 6. David Bland - Assumptions Canvas 7. Founder Institute Assumptions 8. Conversion Rate Experts & MECLabs
  • 62. Sprint your way to traction with Lean Business Discovery. javier@goleancrush.com @javierrincon QUESTIONS?