Critical Thinking: Strategies in Decision Making nPreparing Business Scenario Analyses The following general guidelines may be used in preparing for an oral or written business scenario analysis and presentation. There may be several feasible courses of action regarding the solution to any case. It is more important to concern yourself with the process of problem definition and isolation, analysis, and evaluation of alternatives, and the choice of one or more recommendations, rather than trying to find a single answer. Very often, the right answer is the one that you can propose, explain, defend, and make work. The Process of Analyzing a Case 1. Read and study the scenario thoroughly and efficiently. Read the scenario once for familiarity, noting issues that come to the forefront. Read the scenario again. Determine all the facts, making notes about symptoms of problems, root problems, unresolved issues, and roles of key players. Watch for issues beneath the surface. 2. Isolate the problem(s). Get a feel for the overall environment by putting yourself in the position of one of the key players. Seek out the pertinent issues and problems. 3. Analyze and evaluate alternatives. a. Once the problems and issues are isolated, work at gaining a better understanding of causes. In what area of the unit do the problems exist? Why? What caused them? Examine and evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the unit’s processes (e.g., planning, communication), human behaviors, and/or exhibits (e.g., financial statements, sales reports.) Check the effectiveness of managerial competencies. Are the unit’s objectives and strategies compatible with its skills and resources? b. Formulate a solid evaluation of the case. Examine various alternatives. Weigh the pros and cons of each. Are they feasible? Decide on the most valid. 4. Make recommendations. Draw up your set of recommendations on what must be done and prepare an agenda of corrective actions. What recommendations would you make to the manager of this unit? What specific functions and activities does the unit have to perform in order to solve its problems? Are the recommendations workable? Affordable? A good rule of thumb to follow is to avoid recommending anything you would not do yourself if you were in management’s shoes. Give reasons for your recommendations. Presenting the Case 1. Identify key problems and issues: State them as clearly and precisely as possible. It is essential that your presentation reflect a sharply focused diagnosis of significant problems and issues confronting management. 2. Present the analysis and evaluation: Support your evaluation with facts. If you add exhibits or documentation, discuss them; don’t just tack them on to the report. 3. Recommendations and plan of action: Recommendations should address all of the problems and/or issues that were identified and analyzed. What are the consequences of your recommendations? Be sure the unit is financially able to car.

1. Critical Thinking: Strategies in Decision Making
nPreparing Business Scenario Analyses
The following general guidelines may be used in preparing for
an oral or written business scenario analysis and presentation.
There may be several feasible courses of action regarding the
solution to any case. It is more important to concern yourself
with the process of problem definition and isolation, analysis,
and evaluation of alternatives, and the choice of one or more
recommendations, rather than trying to find a single answer.
Very often, the right answer is the one that you can propose,
explain, defend, and make work.
The Process of Analyzing a Case
1. Read and study the scenario thoroughly and efficiently.
Read the scenario once for familiarity, noting issues that come
to the forefront. Read the scenario again. Determine all the
facts, making notes about symptoms of problems, root
problems, unresolved issues, and roles of key players. Watch
for issues beneath the surface.
2. Isolate the problem(s).
Get a feel for the overall environment by putting yourself in the
position of one of the key players. Seek out the pertinent issues
and problems.
3. Analyze and evaluate alternatives.

2. a. Once the problems and issues are isolated, work at gaining a
better understanding of causes. In what area of the unit do the
problems exist? Why? What caused them? Examine and evaluate
the strengths and weaknesses of the unit’s processes (e.g.,
planning, communication), human behaviors, and/or exhibits
(e.g., financial statements, sales reports.) Check the
effectiveness of managerial competencies. Are the unit’s
objectives and strategies compatible with its skills and
resources?
b. Formulate a solid evaluation of the case.
Examine various alternatives. Weigh the pros and cons of each.
Are they feasible? Decide on the most valid.
4. Make recommendations.
Draw up your set of recommendations on what must be done and
prepare an agenda of corrective actions. What recommendations
would you make to the manager of this unit? What specific
functions and activities does the unit have to perform in order
to solve its problems? Are the recommendations workable?
Affordable? A good rule of thumb to follow is to avoid
recommending anything you would not do yourself if you were
in management’s shoes. Give reasons for your
recommendations.
Presenting the Case
1. Identify key problems and issues: State them as clearly and
precisely as possible. It is essential that your presentation
reflect a sharply focused diagnosis of significant problems and
issues confronting management.
2. Present the analysis and evaluation: Support your evaluation
with facts. If you add exhibits or documentation, discuss them;

3. don’t just tack them on to the report.
3. Recommendations and plan of action: Recommendations
should address all of the problems and/or issues that were
identified and analyzed. What are the consequences of your
recommendations? Be sure the unit is financially able to carry
them out. Don’t speak in generalities, such as: “Everyone
should do more communicating.” Be specific. What should be
done? Who should do it? When? For example, state the
following: “Manager X should take the following steps: 1., 2.,
3., etc.”
1
Critical Thinking: Strategies in Decision Making
Business Scenario
Decisions in Paradise: How To Be, or Not To Be
Introduction:
My name is Nik. I spell my name a little differently. But, with
so many folks named Nicholas, Nicolette, Nicole, Nikoleta,
Nikola, and more, I figure I’d let people guess.
Like everyone else, I periodically imagine what paradise on
Earth would be for me. In my imagination, my trip to paradise
includes having a wonderful, loving relationship, finishing my
college degree, getting a meaningful job, seeing some of the
rest of the world, and getting my dog, Leonard, housebroken.
Although I’d been working on all this stuff for what seems a
lifetime, I couldn’t believe that they all came together for me
within a three week period; although, I’m still working on
Leonard.

4. Within two weeks of finishing my degree, I landed a job with
great potential in a solid organization. All the investment of
time, energy, and money in school finally paid off, not to
mention I learned a lot more than I thought I would. The next
week I reconnected with a former “friend”, that could prove to
be the love of my life. Did I point out I’m still working with
Leonard?
Adding to paradise found, my first assignment with my new
company required me to travel to another part of the world—an
island country of Kava, in the South Pacific to be exact. Now
who thinks of the South Pacific and doesn’t imagine a physical
paradise – white beach, gentle surf, swaying palm trees, tropical
breeze – I sure did, and so did the prospective love of my life.
We agreed the first trip would be strictly business. So, I would
be traveling alone. Poor Leonard. If this assignment and our
relationship worked out well, however, we could spend other
occasions together in paradise.
My first week of work was entirely engulfed in a brief
introduction to the company, HR procedures, organizational
processes, overview of Kava, and flight arrangements. Although
I received a great deal of help in putting together the trip to
Kava, no one knew exactly what I would be doing there.
“You’ll be working with Alex, our director of strategic
planning,” was the short, quick, and consistent response I got.
“Very experienced, very demanding, very influential executive.
What an opportunity for you!”
So, the following week I was off to Kava, to meet with Alex,
my supervisor and mentor, for my assignment in paradise.
I hope the love of my life gets Leonard housebroken while I am
gone.
The setting:
My first reminder that life’s events are not as we perceive them
to be is when I landed in Kava. What I found was that this part
of paradise was a mess, at least where I landed. It was a mess
all the way to our company’s office. It was a mess around the

5. office.
I opened the door of the trailer, our make-shift office. The
office was a mess, too!
Before I could focus myself to say anything, even to greet the
receptionist sitting behind the desk, the hectic yet very
welcoming voice rang out, “Greetings, I’m Alex.”
I was a bit surprised. Correction: I was very surprised. People
never look like you picture them—nothing is like your mind
ever pictures it—but I was way off with Alex. I should have
known better, but I still answered, “Really? You’re not the
receptionist? You’re not at all how I pictured you.”
“Really?” Alex responded, “How did you picture me……..”
gesturing me to introduce myself.
“I’m sorry. I’m Nik,” I responded.
“You are Nik?” was Alex’s retort. “Wow! You’re not even close
to how I pictured you, either.”
“So much for perception is reality,” we said in unison.
“Well, that was a wave of commonality in this sea of diverse
thought, eh?” Alex quipped.
I quickly learned Alex loved metaphors.
“Yeah, let’s see if we can have many more of these we
experience,” I answered, hoping my first impression was not my
last.
Again with a hectic this time reassuring voice Alex said, “Oh
we will.
“So, you’re one of the rookies they sent me from training camp.
Get ready for some fun games. By the way, I am also the
receptionist.”
“Let me tell you a little about Kava,” Alex continued, and with
a note of humor and threat added, “And, make sure you keep
your eye on the ball this time.”
Alex debriefs Nik about Kava.

6. Facts about Kava:
The location:
A significant island country in the South Pacific.
The people:
Over 50% under 15 years of age
Ethnic mix of indigenous South Pacific tribes, Asian (Chinese
primarily), African, French, Spanish, and since World War II, a
sizeable number of Americans.
Religions – Indigenous 50%, remainder closely divided between
Christian, Buddhist, and Islamic.
Languages – Numerous indigenous, as well as English, Spanish,
and French.
The economy:
Petroleum, coffee, cocoa, spices, bananas, sugar, tourism,
fishing, and natural gas, as well as inexpensive, quality labor.
Disasters threats:
Tidal waves/tsunami
Typhoons/Hurricanes
Tornadoes
Floods
Fires
Volcanic eruptions
Earthquakes
HIV/AIDS
Petroleum spill

7. High risk for avian flu
Terrorism, from within and outside the country
Helping organizations:
Governmental service – local, state, and national levels—
including the military
Community-based organizations
Faith-based groups
Businesses
The situation:
After Alex’s introduction to Kava, reviewing the potential risk
associated with our location, and thinking I’m showing Alex my
great observation skills, I declare, “That’s why the mess all
around here. Some disaster hit this place. Right?”
Alex’s eyes spoke, “No kidding, slugger.” But kinder and more
informative words came from Alex’s mouth that said, “No, not
some disaster. It was some disasters—fastballs being thrown
from all sides, so to speak.”
I asked my first stupid question, “What kind of disasters have
they had here?”
With some chiding, but great patience, Alex replied, “Don’t
they teach about things that happen in the rest of the world at
your college, or did you get hit by a pitch?”
“They do,” I answered, “but like everybody else, I guess, if it
doesn’t affect me directly, I don’t pay much attention.”
“Every day, in many ways, you’re affected directly by things
that happen in many parts of the rest of the world,” Alex
responded, this time with less patience. “I bet what happens in
Kava impacts your life at least three times a day, every day.
You may not get all the fly balls, but you’re still in every part

8. of the game”
“What happened here was…..
“How did the folks deal with all that?” I interrupted with
amazement.
“Too much, too many, and over too short a period,” Alex
answered with sigh. “Add to that the diverse composition,
beliefs, attitudes, and ideologies, and you’ve got a melting pot
boiling over.”
“Or, everybody thinks they can pitch, eh?” as I took a swing at
metaphoric statements.
“Good one,” Alex stated. “Yep. Now, let’s get to work on our
game plan.”
The task:
Alex began to define our mission and my assignment:
“Our company is considering establishing a greater presence
here in Kava,” Alex started. “That greater presence could take
various forms, based on what’s good for our company and
what’s good for the people of Kava. You and I get the chance to
analyze, synthesize, and prescribe regarding that decision.”
“Because so many disasters happen here?” I questioned. “I think
I can write up this recommendation in two words, ‘Forget It’.”
Again with great patience, Alex explained, slowly and
deliberately, “I guess you can just take your ball and go home.
But our organization chose to play in this game and you chose
to join our organization. If you really want to play, you will
have to take your turn at bat. There are no designated hitters in
this game.”
I rephrased my thoughts, “OK, we want a greater presence on
Kava, because so many disasters happen here.”
Alex answered, “Yes, but even more. Certainly, one reason is
that whatever happens here affects us there. I’ll make sure you
understand that as we create this study. As you’ve seen

9. recently, disasters happen at home, too. We can avoid, deny, or
ignore them. We have to turn them into opportunities. Another
huge reason is the founder of our company, Chris Morales, has a
deep-seeded commitment to doing what is right. Not because of
the economics, or politics, or recognition, but because it’s the
right thing to do. Our organization is far from perfect, but we
keep trying to upgrade who we are, what we do, and how we do
it. Chris believes we can’t keep taking more from Kava, if we
don’t give more back. Chris wants to live up to that Morales
name. And, the third, maybe most consequential reason is the
government of Kava, and I’m sure indirectly a bunch of other
organizations, are asking us to bring our business “culture” to
Kava.
“Why is their government asking our company, a for-profit
business, to help them with their, uh, social needs?” I asked.
“There are also three big, basic reasons, for that,” Alex
answered, “and loads of other minor ones.
“First of all, through our growth, our company has demonstrated
that we can develop and manage a very effective, as well as
highly efficient, organizational structure and processes. That
includes all aspects of the company; marketing, finance,
purchasing, technology, human resources, physical resource,
transportation, strategic planning, leadership, etc.
“Secondly, the goods and services that come from Kava, have a
significant impact on our company, you and me, and most folks
back home, as well as people all over the world.
“Last, and certainly not least, as Chris has preached and
demonstrated, ‘In the long run, economics drives everything.’”
Alex concluded with, “So, are you ready for your turn at bat?”
“I guess,” I answered with all the confidence of a first-time
skydiver. “But, I wouldn’t mind if you’re the leadoff hitter, at
least for right now.”
“OK, then. Keep your eye on the ball,” Alex instructed,
“because here’s what we, by that I mean you, need to do first.

10. “All those fresh new critical-thinking skills you developed in
your education should be applied, because I want you to write a
not-too-long Part I to what will be our company’s plan about
how we have a greater presence on Kava. I think Part I of the
plan should discuss at least three areas; organizational
processes, human resources, and ethics.
“So, how to be, or how not to be here,” I joked, “That is the
question.”
“That’s right, Hamlet.” Alex joked in return, “Although I think
was Milton not Shakespeare who wrote Paradise Lost. Let’s see
if we can find it.”
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