1. The Black-Scholes option pricing model assumes a perfect hedge using a dynamic trading strategy, but this requires frequent rebalancing of the hedge portfolio which incurs transaction costs that are not accounted for in the model.
2. When the hedge portfolio is rebalanced over discrete time intervals, an adjustment cost arises at each interval that affects the expected present value of the cash flows and thus the derived option price.
3. For the Black-Scholes model to accurately price options, it must account for the expected costs of dynamically rebalancing the hedge portfolio over the life of the option.
1. The document discusses the pricing of variance swaps using risk neutral valuation. It defines variance swaps as transactions where the payout is based on the difference between realized variance and a prespecified strike variance.
2. It derives a formula for the strike variance that is equal to the risk-neutral expected value of the average variance over the swap period, where the expectation is calculated using Black-Scholes option pricing.
3. The value of a variance swap is defined as the notional amount multiplied by the difference between realized variance, estimated from historical stock prices, and the strike variance estimated from option prices. The variance swap thus specifies the value of differences between two estimates of the true variance.
Critical thoughts about modern option pricingIlya Gikhman
1. The document discusses issues with the Black-Scholes pricing model and proposes an alternative approach. Specifically, it argues that the B-S equation does not necessarily hold at each point in time and adjustments are needed when moving between time intervals.
2. The alternative approach defines option price stochastically based on possible future stock prices at expiration. Price is set to 0 if stock price is below strike, and a fraction of the in-the-money amount otherwise. This defines a distribution for option price based on the underlying stock distribution.
3. In the alternative approach, option price has an associated market risk defined by the probabilities of the traded price being above or below the stochastically defined price.
This document discusses the construction of riskless derivatives portfolios as proposed by Black and Scholes. It summarizes Black and Scholes' approach and then argues that their portfolio is not truly riskless, as it takes on risk at each discrete time interval. Specifically, the portfolio requires reconstruction at each time point to eliminate risk, and in the limit of infinitesimally small time intervals, the portfolio retains risk at all times. The document makes a similar argument against the claim that portfolios of multiple derivatives can be constructed to be riskless.
This document discusses issues with the derivation of the Black-Scholes equation and option pricing model. It highlights two popular derivations of the Black-Scholes equation, noting ambiguities in the original derivation. It proposes defining the hedged portfolio over a variable time interval to address these ambiguities. The document also notes drawbacks of the Black-Scholes price, including that it only guarantees a risk-free return over an infinitesimal time period and does not reflect market prices which may incorporate other strategies.
This document discusses pricing models for American options. It specifies that American options can be exercised at any time prior to maturity, unlike European options which can only be exercised at maturity. The value of an American option is defined as the expected value of the European option price using the random exercise time. American options can be decomposed into their European counterpart plus an early exercise premium. Determining the optimal early exercise time is formulated as finding the stopping time that maximizes the expected discounted payoff over the lifetime of the contract. References for further reading on pricing American options are also provided.
This document discusses pricing models for American option contracts. It begins by outlining the standard model, which values American options based on the moment that guarantees maximum option value. However, the author proposes an alternative view, where the optimal exercise time is when the underlying asset reaches its maximum value on [0,T]. Exercising at this maximum value ensures a payoff equal to the selling price, avoiding arbitrage. The document formalizes this idea using concepts like risk-neutral probabilities and derivations of put-call parity relationships to define fair option prices.
1. The Black-Scholes option pricing model assumes a perfect hedge using a dynamic trading strategy, but this requires frequent rebalancing of the hedge portfolio which incurs transaction costs that are not accounted for in the model.
2. When the hedge portfolio is rebalanced over discrete time intervals, an adjustment cost arises at each interval that affects the expected present value of the cash flows and thus the derived option price.
3. For the Black-Scholes model to accurately price options, it must account for the expected costs of dynamically rebalancing the hedge portfolio over the life of the option.
1. The document discusses the pricing of variance swaps using risk neutral valuation. It defines variance swaps as transactions where the payout is based on the difference between realized variance and a prespecified strike variance.
2. It derives a formula for the strike variance that is equal to the risk-neutral expected value of the average variance over the swap period, where the expectation is calculated using Black-Scholes option pricing.
3. The value of a variance swap is defined as the notional amount multiplied by the difference between realized variance, estimated from historical stock prices, and the strike variance estimated from option prices. The variance swap thus specifies the value of differences between two estimates of the true variance.
Critical thoughts about modern option pricingIlya Gikhman
1. The document discusses issues with the Black-Scholes pricing model and proposes an alternative approach. Specifically, it argues that the B-S equation does not necessarily hold at each point in time and adjustments are needed when moving between time intervals.
2. The alternative approach defines option price stochastically based on possible future stock prices at expiration. Price is set to 0 if stock price is below strike, and a fraction of the in-the-money amount otherwise. This defines a distribution for option price based on the underlying stock distribution.
3. In the alternative approach, option price has an associated market risk defined by the probabilities of the traded price being above or below the stochastically defined price.
This document discusses the construction of riskless derivatives portfolios as proposed by Black and Scholes. It summarizes Black and Scholes' approach and then argues that their portfolio is not truly riskless, as it takes on risk at each discrete time interval. Specifically, the portfolio requires reconstruction at each time point to eliminate risk, and in the limit of infinitesimally small time intervals, the portfolio retains risk at all times. The document makes a similar argument against the claim that portfolios of multiple derivatives can be constructed to be riskless.
This document discusses issues with the derivation of the Black-Scholes equation and option pricing model. It highlights two popular derivations of the Black-Scholes equation, noting ambiguities in the original derivation. It proposes defining the hedged portfolio over a variable time interval to address these ambiguities. The document also notes drawbacks of the Black-Scholes price, including that it only guarantees a risk-free return over an infinitesimal time period and does not reflect market prices which may incorporate other strategies.
This document discusses pricing models for American options. It specifies that American options can be exercised at any time prior to maturity, unlike European options which can only be exercised at maturity. The value of an American option is defined as the expected value of the European option price using the random exercise time. American options can be decomposed into their European counterpart plus an early exercise premium. Determining the optimal early exercise time is formulated as finding the stopping time that maximizes the expected discounted payoff over the lifetime of the contract. References for further reading on pricing American options are also provided.
This document discusses pricing models for American option contracts. It begins by outlining the standard model, which values American options based on the moment that guarantees maximum option value. However, the author proposes an alternative view, where the optimal exercise time is when the underlying asset reaches its maximum value on [0,T]. Exercising at this maximum value ensures a payoff equal to the selling price, avoiding arbitrage. The document formalizes this idea using concepts like risk-neutral probabilities and derivations of put-call parity relationships to define fair option prices.
Abstract. Regulations of the market require disclosure of information about the nature and extent of risks arising from the trades of the market instruments. There are several significant drawbacks in fixed income pricing modeling. In this paper we interpret a corporate bond price as a random variable. In this case the spot price does not a complete characteristic of the price. The price should be specified by the spot price as well as its value of market risk. This interpretation is similar to a random variable in Probability Theory where an estimate of the random variable completely defined by its cumulative distribution function. The buyer market risk is the value of the chance that the spot price is higher than it is implied by the market scenarios. First we quantify credit risk of the corporate bonds and then consider marked-to-market pricing adjustment to bond price. In the case when issuer of the corporate bond is the counterparty of the bond buyer counterparty and credit risks are coincide.
In this short notice, we present structure of the perfect hedging. Closed form formulas clarify the fact that Black-Scholes (BS) portfolio which provides perfect hedge only at initial moment. Holding portfolio over a certain period implies additional cash flow, which could not be imbedded in BS pricing scheme, and therefore BS option price cannot be derived without additional cash flow which affects BS option price.
Last my paper equity, implied, and local volatilitiesIlya Gikhman
In this paper we present a critical point on connections between stock volatility, implied
volatility, and local volatility. The essence of the Black Scholes pricing model is based on assumption
that option piece is formed by no arbitrage portfolio. Such assumption effects the change of the real
underlying stock by its risk neutral counterpart. Market practice shows even more. The volatility of the
underlying should be also changed. Such practice calls for implied volatility. Underlying with implied
volatility is specific for each option. The local volatility development presents the value of implied
volatility.
There are several significant drawbacks in derivative price modeling which relate to global regulations of the derivatives market. Here we present a unified approach which in stochastic market interprets option price as a random variable. Therefore spot price does not complete characteristic of the price in stochastic environment. Complete derivatives price includes the spot price as well as thevalue of market risk implied by the use of the spot price. This interpretation is similar to the notion of therandom variable in Probability Theory in which an estimate of the random variable completely defined by its cumulative distribution function
In this paper we show how the ambiguities in derivation of the BSE can be eliminated.
We pay attention to option as a hedging instrument and present definition of the option price based on market risk weighting. In such approach we define random market price for each market scenario. The spot price then is interpreted as a one that reflect balance between profit-loss expectations of the market participants
1) The document discusses pricing models for derivatives such as options and interest rate swaps. It introduces concepts such as local volatility, which models implied volatility as a function of strike price and time to maturity.
2) Black-Scholes pricing is based on the assumption of a perfect hedging strategy, but the document notes this is formally incorrect as the hedging portfolio defined does not satisfy the required equations.
3) Local volatility presents the option price as a function of strike and time to maturity, with the diffusion coefficient estimated from option price data, whereas Black-Scholes models the price as a function of the underlying and time, with volatility as an input.
Pricing Exotics using Change of NumeraireSwati Mital
The intention of this essay is to show how change of numeraire technique is used in pricing derivatives with complex payoffs. In the first instance, we apply the technique to pricing European Call Options and then use the same method to price an exotic Power Option.
This document provides a summary and critique of the local volatility model. It begins by briefly recalling the construction of the local volatility concept, which aims to find an implied volatility function that matches option prices. However, the document argues that the local volatility model makes an error by replacing the real stock process with an auxiliary process, as they are defined on different coordinate spaces. While the goal of eliminating discrepancies between real and implied volatility is reasonable, the implementation of the local volatility concept ignores important initial conditions. Overall, the document presents both the theoretical basis of local volatility and a critical viewpoint of its mathematical derivation.
A new derivation of the Black Scholes Equation (BSE) based on integral form stochastic calculus is presented. Construction of the BSE solution is based on infinitesimal perfect hedging. The perfect hedging on a finite time interval is a separate problem that does not change option pricing. The cost of hedging does not present an adjustment of the BS pricing. We discuss a more profound alternative approach to option pricing. It defines option price as a settlement between counterparties and in contrast to BS approach presents the market risk of the option premium.
This document describes an uncertain volatility model for pricing equity option trading strategies when the volatilities are uncertain. It uses the Black-Scholes Barenblatt equation developed by Avellaneda et al. to derive price bounds. The model is implemented in C++ using recombining trinomial trees to discretize the asset prices over time and space. The code computes the upper and lower price bounds by solving the Black-Scholes Barenblatt PDE using numerical techniques, with the volatility set based on the sign of the option gamma.
On the stability and accuracy of finite difference method for options pricingAlexander Decker
1) The document discusses finite difference methods for pricing options, specifically the implicit and Crank-Nicolson methods.
2) It analyzes the stability and accuracy of each method. The Crank-Nicolson method is found to be more accurate and converges faster than the implicit method.
3) Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the convergence properties of each method compared to the true Black-Scholes value. The results show that the Crank-Nicolson method converges to the solution faster than the implicit method as the time and price steps approach zero.
Stochastic Local Volatility Models: Theory and ImplementationVolatility
1) Hedging and volatility
2) Review of volatility models
3) Local volatility models with jumps and stochastic volatility
4) Calibration using Kolmogorov equations
5) PDE based methods in one dimension
5) PDE based methods in two dimensions
7) Illustrations
1. The document discusses local volatility and the "smile effect" where implied volatility depends on strike price and maturity. It presents the derivation of the local volatility partial differential equation from no-arbitrage arguments.
2. It notes some limitations of the local volatility model, including that stock returns are not additive and the model does not have a clear pathwise connection to the underlying stock process.
3. A new remark is added discussing how the local volatility PDE can be reformulated as a classical Cauchy problem by changing variables, and clarifying the relationship between the local volatility diffusion and the underlying stock process.
11.the comparative study of finite difference method and monte carlo method f...Alexander Decker
This document compares the finite difference method and Monte Carlo method for pricing European options. It provides an overview of these two primary numerical methods used in financial modeling. The Monte Carlo method simulates asset price paths and averages discounted payoffs to estimate option value. It is well-suited for path-dependent options but converges slower than finite difference. The finite difference method solves the Black-Scholes PDE by approximating it on a grid. Specifically, it discusses the Crank-Nicolson scheme, which is unconditionally stable and converges faster than Monte Carlo for standard options.
The document discusses pricing interest rate derivatives using the one factor Hull-White short rate model. It begins with an introduction to short rate models and the Hull-White model specifically. It describes how the Hull-White model can be calibrated to market prices by relating its parameter θ to the market term structure. The document then discusses implementing the Hull-White model using trinomial trees and pricing constant maturity swaps.
The document discusses properties and rules for evaluating limits, including:
1) The limit of a constant times a function is the constant times the limit of the function.
2) The limit of the sum/difference/product of two functions is the sum/difference/product of their individual limits.
3) One-sided limits approach from the left or right, while two-sided limits come from both sides.
4) Limits involving infinity relate to horizontal and vertical asymptotes based on the highest powers in the numerator and denominator.
5) Continuity requires the limit of a function and its value at a point to be equal.
This document summarizes notes from Andrew Ng's CS229 lecture on support vector machines (SVMs). It begins by introducing the concept of margins and how SVMs aim to find a decision boundary that maximizes the geometric margin between positive and negative examples. It then formulates the SVM optimization problem to find this optimal margin classifier and discusses how solving the dual formulation using kernels allows SVMs to work in high-dimensional spaces efficiently.
This document summarizes a research paper on spin modular categories. The paper studies algebraic structures on modular categories that allow refinements of quantum 3-manifold invariants involving cohomology classes or generalized spin and complex spin structures. A key role is played by invertible objects under tensor product. The paper defines H-refinable and H-spin modular categories for a subgroup H of invertible objects. It shows such categories provide topological invariants of pairs (M,σ) where M is a 3-manifold and σ is a generalized spin structure. The paper establishes splitting formulas for these refined invariants, generalizing known decompositions of quantum invariants.
This document discusses important cuts and separators in graphs and their algorithmic applications. It begins by defining cuts, minimum cuts, and minimal cuts. It then characterizes cuts as edges on the boundary of a set of vertices. The document discusses properties of cuts like submodularity. It introduces the concept of important cuts and separators, proving several properties about them. Importantly, it proves that the number of important cuts of size at most k is at most 4k. The document discusses applications of important cuts and separators to parameterized algorithms.
Regularity and complexity in dynamical systemsSpringer
This chapter discusses how variational methods have been used to analyze three classes of snakelike robots: 1) hyper-redundant manipulators guided by backbone curves, 2) flexible steerable needles, and 3) concentric tube continuum robots. Variational methods provide a means to determine optimal backbone curves for manipulators, generate optimal plans for needle steering, and model equilibrium conformations for concentric tube robots based on elastic mechanics principles. The chapter reviews how variational formulations using Euler-Lagrange and Euler-Poincare equations are applied in each case.
equity, implied, and local volatilitiesIlya Gikhman
This document discusses connections between stock volatility, implied volatility, and local volatility in option pricing models. It provides an overview of the Black-Scholes pricing model, which assumes stock volatility is known. However, implied volatility estimated from market option prices does not match the true stock volatility. The local volatility model develops implied volatility as a function of underlying variables to better match market prices, without relying on an assumed stock process.
1) The document outlines drawbacks in the Black-Scholes option pricing theory, including mathematical errors in its derivations. Specifically, the assumption that a hedging portfolio eliminates risk is incorrect as a third term was omitted from the change in the portfolio value.
2) It also discusses issues with the local volatility adjustment concept, noting that transforming the constant diffusion coefficient to a local volatility surface does not actually explain the smile effect observed in options data.
3) While local volatility aims to match implied volatilities observed in the market, the theory suggests the local volatility surface should actually be equal to the original constant diffusion coefficient.
Abstract. Regulations of the market require disclosure of information about the nature and extent of risks arising from the trades of the market instruments. There are several significant drawbacks in fixed income pricing modeling. In this paper we interpret a corporate bond price as a random variable. In this case the spot price does not a complete characteristic of the price. The price should be specified by the spot price as well as its value of market risk. This interpretation is similar to a random variable in Probability Theory where an estimate of the random variable completely defined by its cumulative distribution function. The buyer market risk is the value of the chance that the spot price is higher than it is implied by the market scenarios. First we quantify credit risk of the corporate bonds and then consider marked-to-market pricing adjustment to bond price. In the case when issuer of the corporate bond is the counterparty of the bond buyer counterparty and credit risks are coincide.
In this short notice, we present structure of the perfect hedging. Closed form formulas clarify the fact that Black-Scholes (BS) portfolio which provides perfect hedge only at initial moment. Holding portfolio over a certain period implies additional cash flow, which could not be imbedded in BS pricing scheme, and therefore BS option price cannot be derived without additional cash flow which affects BS option price.
Last my paper equity, implied, and local volatilitiesIlya Gikhman
In this paper we present a critical point on connections between stock volatility, implied
volatility, and local volatility. The essence of the Black Scholes pricing model is based on assumption
that option piece is formed by no arbitrage portfolio. Such assumption effects the change of the real
underlying stock by its risk neutral counterpart. Market practice shows even more. The volatility of the
underlying should be also changed. Such practice calls for implied volatility. Underlying with implied
volatility is specific for each option. The local volatility development presents the value of implied
volatility.
There are several significant drawbacks in derivative price modeling which relate to global regulations of the derivatives market. Here we present a unified approach which in stochastic market interprets option price as a random variable. Therefore spot price does not complete characteristic of the price in stochastic environment. Complete derivatives price includes the spot price as well as thevalue of market risk implied by the use of the spot price. This interpretation is similar to the notion of therandom variable in Probability Theory in which an estimate of the random variable completely defined by its cumulative distribution function
In this paper we show how the ambiguities in derivation of the BSE can be eliminated.
We pay attention to option as a hedging instrument and present definition of the option price based on market risk weighting. In such approach we define random market price for each market scenario. The spot price then is interpreted as a one that reflect balance between profit-loss expectations of the market participants
1) The document discusses pricing models for derivatives such as options and interest rate swaps. It introduces concepts such as local volatility, which models implied volatility as a function of strike price and time to maturity.
2) Black-Scholes pricing is based on the assumption of a perfect hedging strategy, but the document notes this is formally incorrect as the hedging portfolio defined does not satisfy the required equations.
3) Local volatility presents the option price as a function of strike and time to maturity, with the diffusion coefficient estimated from option price data, whereas Black-Scholes models the price as a function of the underlying and time, with volatility as an input.
Pricing Exotics using Change of NumeraireSwati Mital
The intention of this essay is to show how change of numeraire technique is used in pricing derivatives with complex payoffs. In the first instance, we apply the technique to pricing European Call Options and then use the same method to price an exotic Power Option.
This document provides a summary and critique of the local volatility model. It begins by briefly recalling the construction of the local volatility concept, which aims to find an implied volatility function that matches option prices. However, the document argues that the local volatility model makes an error by replacing the real stock process with an auxiliary process, as they are defined on different coordinate spaces. While the goal of eliminating discrepancies between real and implied volatility is reasonable, the implementation of the local volatility concept ignores important initial conditions. Overall, the document presents both the theoretical basis of local volatility and a critical viewpoint of its mathematical derivation.
A new derivation of the Black Scholes Equation (BSE) based on integral form stochastic calculus is presented. Construction of the BSE solution is based on infinitesimal perfect hedging. The perfect hedging on a finite time interval is a separate problem that does not change option pricing. The cost of hedging does not present an adjustment of the BS pricing. We discuss a more profound alternative approach to option pricing. It defines option price as a settlement between counterparties and in contrast to BS approach presents the market risk of the option premium.
This document describes an uncertain volatility model for pricing equity option trading strategies when the volatilities are uncertain. It uses the Black-Scholes Barenblatt equation developed by Avellaneda et al. to derive price bounds. The model is implemented in C++ using recombining trinomial trees to discretize the asset prices over time and space. The code computes the upper and lower price bounds by solving the Black-Scholes Barenblatt PDE using numerical techniques, with the volatility set based on the sign of the option gamma.
On the stability and accuracy of finite difference method for options pricingAlexander Decker
1) The document discusses finite difference methods for pricing options, specifically the implicit and Crank-Nicolson methods.
2) It analyzes the stability and accuracy of each method. The Crank-Nicolson method is found to be more accurate and converges faster than the implicit method.
3) Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the convergence properties of each method compared to the true Black-Scholes value. The results show that the Crank-Nicolson method converges to the solution faster than the implicit method as the time and price steps approach zero.
Stochastic Local Volatility Models: Theory and ImplementationVolatility
1) Hedging and volatility
2) Review of volatility models
3) Local volatility models with jumps and stochastic volatility
4) Calibration using Kolmogorov equations
5) PDE based methods in one dimension
5) PDE based methods in two dimensions
7) Illustrations
1. The document discusses local volatility and the "smile effect" where implied volatility depends on strike price and maturity. It presents the derivation of the local volatility partial differential equation from no-arbitrage arguments.
2. It notes some limitations of the local volatility model, including that stock returns are not additive and the model does not have a clear pathwise connection to the underlying stock process.
3. A new remark is added discussing how the local volatility PDE can be reformulated as a classical Cauchy problem by changing variables, and clarifying the relationship between the local volatility diffusion and the underlying stock process.
11.the comparative study of finite difference method and monte carlo method f...Alexander Decker
This document compares the finite difference method and Monte Carlo method for pricing European options. It provides an overview of these two primary numerical methods used in financial modeling. The Monte Carlo method simulates asset price paths and averages discounted payoffs to estimate option value. It is well-suited for path-dependent options but converges slower than finite difference. The finite difference method solves the Black-Scholes PDE by approximating it on a grid. Specifically, it discusses the Crank-Nicolson scheme, which is unconditionally stable and converges faster than Monte Carlo for standard options.
The document discusses pricing interest rate derivatives using the one factor Hull-White short rate model. It begins with an introduction to short rate models and the Hull-White model specifically. It describes how the Hull-White model can be calibrated to market prices by relating its parameter θ to the market term structure. The document then discusses implementing the Hull-White model using trinomial trees and pricing constant maturity swaps.
The document discusses properties and rules for evaluating limits, including:
1) The limit of a constant times a function is the constant times the limit of the function.
2) The limit of the sum/difference/product of two functions is the sum/difference/product of their individual limits.
3) One-sided limits approach from the left or right, while two-sided limits come from both sides.
4) Limits involving infinity relate to horizontal and vertical asymptotes based on the highest powers in the numerator and denominator.
5) Continuity requires the limit of a function and its value at a point to be equal.
This document summarizes notes from Andrew Ng's CS229 lecture on support vector machines (SVMs). It begins by introducing the concept of margins and how SVMs aim to find a decision boundary that maximizes the geometric margin between positive and negative examples. It then formulates the SVM optimization problem to find this optimal margin classifier and discusses how solving the dual formulation using kernels allows SVMs to work in high-dimensional spaces efficiently.
This document summarizes a research paper on spin modular categories. The paper studies algebraic structures on modular categories that allow refinements of quantum 3-manifold invariants involving cohomology classes or generalized spin and complex spin structures. A key role is played by invertible objects under tensor product. The paper defines H-refinable and H-spin modular categories for a subgroup H of invertible objects. It shows such categories provide topological invariants of pairs (M,σ) where M is a 3-manifold and σ is a generalized spin structure. The paper establishes splitting formulas for these refined invariants, generalizing known decompositions of quantum invariants.
This document discusses important cuts and separators in graphs and their algorithmic applications. It begins by defining cuts, minimum cuts, and minimal cuts. It then characterizes cuts as edges on the boundary of a set of vertices. The document discusses properties of cuts like submodularity. It introduces the concept of important cuts and separators, proving several properties about them. Importantly, it proves that the number of important cuts of size at most k is at most 4k. The document discusses applications of important cuts and separators to parameterized algorithms.
Regularity and complexity in dynamical systemsSpringer
This chapter discusses how variational methods have been used to analyze three classes of snakelike robots: 1) hyper-redundant manipulators guided by backbone curves, 2) flexible steerable needles, and 3) concentric tube continuum robots. Variational methods provide a means to determine optimal backbone curves for manipulators, generate optimal plans for needle steering, and model equilibrium conformations for concentric tube robots based on elastic mechanics principles. The chapter reviews how variational formulations using Euler-Lagrange and Euler-Poincare equations are applied in each case.
equity, implied, and local volatilitiesIlya Gikhman
This document discusses connections between stock volatility, implied volatility, and local volatility in option pricing models. It provides an overview of the Black-Scholes pricing model, which assumes stock volatility is known. However, implied volatility estimated from market option prices does not match the true stock volatility. The local volatility model develops implied volatility as a function of underlying variables to better match market prices, without relying on an assumed stock process.
1) The document outlines drawbacks in the Black-Scholes option pricing theory, including mathematical errors in its derivations. Specifically, the assumption that a hedging portfolio eliminates risk is incorrect as a third term was omitted from the change in the portfolio value.
2) It also discusses issues with the local volatility adjustment concept, noting that transforming the constant diffusion coefficient to a local volatility surface does not actually explain the smile effect observed in options data.
3) While local volatility aims to match implied volatilities observed in the market, the theory suggests the local volatility surface should actually be equal to the original constant diffusion coefficient.
. In some papers it have been remarked that derivation of the Black Scholes Equation (BSE) contains mathematical ambiguities. In particular in [2,3 ] there are two problems which can be raise by accepting Black Scholes (BS) pricing concept. One is technical derivation of the BSE and other the pricing definition of the option.
In this paper, we show how the ambiguities in derivation of the BSE can be eliminated.
We pay attention to option as a hedging instrument and present definition of the option price based on market risk weighting. In such approach, we define random market price for each market scenario. The spot price then is interpreted as a one that reflects balance between profit-loss expectations of the market participants.
In this paper, we show how the ambiguities in derivation of the BSE can be eliminated.
We pay attention to option as a hedging instrument and present definition of the option price based on market risk weighting. In such approach, we define random market price for each market scenario. The spot price then is interpreted as a one that reflects balance between profit-loss expectations of the market participants.
In this paper, we show how the ambiguities in derivation of the BSE can be eliminated.
We pay attention to option as a hedging instrument and present definition of the option price based on market risk weighting. In such approach, we define random market price for each market scenario. The spot price then is interpreted as a one that reflects balance between profit-loss expectations of the market participants.
This document discusses the Black-Scholes pricing concept for options. It summarizes two popular derivations of the Black-Scholes equation, the original derivation and an alternative presented in other literature. It also discusses ambiguities that have been noted in the derivation of the Black-Scholes equation and proposes corrections to the derivation using modern stochastic calculus. Specifically, it introduces a hedged portfolio function defined over two variables to accurately represent the value and dynamics of the hedged portfolio. The document concludes that the Black-Scholes pricing concept only guarantees a risk-free return at a single point in time and does not necessarily reflect market prices.
This document discusses the Black-Scholes pricing concept for options. It summarizes two common derivations of the Black-Scholes equation, the original by Black and Scholes which uses a hedged position consisting of a long stock position and short option position. An alternative derivation presented in some textbooks uses a hedged position consisting of a long option position and short stock position. The document also notes that while the Black-Scholes price guarantees a risk-free return at a single moment in time, it does not necessarily reflect market prices and there is no guarantee the market will use the Black-Scholes price.
This document discusses the Black-Scholes pricing concept for options. It summarizes two common derivations of the Black-Scholes equation, the original by Black and Scholes which uses a hedged position consisting of a long stock position and short option position. An alternative derivation presented in some textbooks uses a hedged position consisting of a long option position and short stock position. The document also notes that while the Black-Scholes price guarantees a risk-free return at a single point in time, it does not necessarily reflect market prices and there is market risk for the option seller at future times.
This document presents a critique of the Black-Scholes option pricing model. It identifies two primary errors in the Black-Scholes approach: 1) They presented an incorrect interpretation of the option price by defining it based on risk-free borrowing rather than as a settlement price between buyer and seller. 2) Their implementation of the original Black-Scholes idea led to an incorrect pricing equation, while a more accurate derivation should have led to a different pricing equation. The document then presents an alternative option pricing approach based on an investment equality principle that two cash flows are equal when their instantaneous rates of return are equal at any time. This provides a definition of option price at time t that promises the same rate of return
1. The document discusses the pricing of variance swaps using risk neutral valuation. It defines variance swaps as transactions where the payout is based on the difference between realized variance and a prespecified strike variance.
2. It derives a formula for the strike variance that equates it to the risk-neutral expected value of the integrated variance process over the swap period, where the expectation is calculated using Black-Scholes option prices.
3. The document explains that variance swaps allow parties to hedge differences between estimates of ex-ante variance derived from option prices and ex-post variance calculated from realized stock returns over the swap period.
Expanding further the universe of exotic options closed pricing formulas in t...caplogic-ltd
The document proposes a pricing method for exotic options like Best Of and Rainbow options that results in a closed-form pricing formula. The method assumes returns follow a Brownian motion under the Black-Scholes model. The pricing formula is a linear combination of the current market prices of the underlying assets multiplied by a probability expressed in the risk-neutral measure. This probability can be evaluated using the cumulative function of the normal multivariate distribution if the payoff is defined as a comparison of asset prices at different times. The paper provides proofs and discusses how to evaluate the required probability.
- The document outlines a BSc research project on pricing financial derivatives using the Black-Scholes model.
- The project aims to learn established financial models, compare pricing techniques, and see how newer models relate to existing ones.
- It provides background on the student's motivation and experience, and introduces key concepts like options, the Black-Scholes equation, and its derivation and solution.
- The student will present their work on applying and extending the Black-Scholes model to price derivatives.
Option Pricing under non constant volatilityEcon 643 Fina.docxjacksnathalie
Option Pricing under non constant volatility
Econ 643: Financial Economics II
Econ 643: Financial Economics II Non constant volatility 1 / 21
Department of Economics
Introduction
Attempts have been made to fix option pricing puzzles: How to be
consistent with volatility smile and smirk.
The Gram-Charlier expansion is one of then but volatility is constant
which is inconsistent with asset return’s dynamics
We review thre approaches that aim at integrating information
embedded in past returns:
GARCH type of approach,
Stochastic volatility models: Hull and White (1987),
Stochastic volatility models: Heston (1993),
Econ 643: Financial Economics II Non constant volatility 2 / 21
The GARCH option pricing
Let St be the asset price at time t and rt = ln(St/St−1) be the log-return
process. Assume that the process rt is a (G)GARCH(1,1) process:
rt = ln
(
St
St−1
)
= µt−1 + σt−1zt, zt ∼ NID(0, 1)
σ2t = ω + α(σt−1zt − θσt−1)2 + βσ2t−1.
(1)
In this model,
µt−1 = E(rt|Jt−1) is a known function of past returns.
Ex: µt = 0, µt = µ = cst, µt = µ + λσt, µt = r + λσt − 12σ
2
t , etc.
σ2t−1 = Var(rt|Jt−1) is the conditional variance of rt given the
information Jt−1 available at t − 1.
Econ 643: Financial Economics II Non constant volatility 3 / 21
GARCH: How to price options on S?
We can rely on the risk-neutral approach:
C = e−rτ E∗ (max(ST − X, 0)) ,
where E∗ is the expectation under risk-neutral dynamics.
What is the risk-neutral dynamics of St if ln(St/St−1) is a
GARCH(1,1)?
Under risk-neutral dyn., E∗
(
St
St−1
)
= er and Var∗(rt|Jt−1) = σ2t−1
(same as under historical measure). Hence, if rt ∼ GARCH(1, 1)
under risk-neutral, the corresponding mean has to be
µ∗t−1 = r −
σ2
t−1
2
. That is:
rt = r −
σ2
t−1
2
+ σt−1z
∗
t , z
∗
t ∼ NID(0, 1)
σ2t = ω + α(σt−1z
∗
t + r −
σ2
t−1
2
− µt−1 − θσt−1)2 + βσ2t−1.
(2)
Econ 643: Financial Economics II Non constant volatility 4 / 21
GARCH: Simulating the option price
To obtain the price C by simulation:
Simulate B paths of stock price using the risk-neutral dynamics (2):
(S
(b)
t+1, S
(b)
t+2, . . . , S
(b)
T
) for b = 1, . . . , B (e.g. B = 5000).
Obtain the simulated price as
Ĉ = e−rτ Ê(max(ST − X, 0)),
with
Ê(max(ST − X, 0)) =
1
B
B
∑
b=1
max(S
(b)
T
− X, 0).
Econ 643: Financial Economics II Non constant volatility 5 / 21
Option pricing under stochastic volatility
GARCH option pricing is convenient but evidence are out that
volatility is more likely stochastic.
Option pricing under SV is quite challenging because of the extra
source of uncertainty brought by the volatility equation.
The induced PDE (by SV) for option pricing can be derived but is
hard to solve.
The most common SV option pricing models are from Hull and White
(1987) and Heston (1993).
Econ 643: Financial Economics II Non constant volatility 6 / 21
Hull and White (1987)
Consider the price process St and its instantaneous variance process
V − t = σ2t obeying the dynamics:
dS.
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CRITICAL POINT ON STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY OPTION PRICING.
1. 1
CRITICAL POINT ON STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY OPTION PRICING.
Ilya I. Gikhman
6077 Ivy Woods Court Mason,
OH 45040, USA
Ph. 513-573-9348
Email: ilya_gikhman@yahoo.com
JEL : G12, G13.
Keywords . Option pricing, stochastic volatility, square root diffusion.
Abstract. In this short notice, we present an argument that Black Scholes (BS) option pricing model cannot
cover the case when volatility is a stochastic process.
Let us first recall the essence of the BS pricing. The BS option price is defined synthetically by constructing
perfectly hedged portfolio. This replicating portfolio is a long call option and a portion of short shares of
underlying asset. Assume that underlying asset price S ( t ), t ≥ 0 follows a Geometric Brownian Motion
equation
dS ( t ) = µ ( t ) S ( t ) dt + σ ( t ) S ( t ) dw ( t ) (1)
where coefficients µ ( t ), σ ( t ) are known deterministic functions and S ( 0 ) > 0. Let 0 ≤ t < T < + ∞. The
value of the hedged portfolio Π ( u , t ) at a moment u ≥ t is defined by the formula
Π ( u , t ) = C ( u , S ( u ) ) – C
/
S ( t , S ( t ) ) S ( u ) (2)
It represents the value of the one long option and the ( t ) = C
/
S ( t , S ( t ) ) short shares of the stocks.
The change in the value of the portfolio is risk free during the future infinitesimal period [ t , t + dt ). Indeed,
applying Ito formula one can see that
dΠ ( u , t ) |u = t = dC ( u , S ( u ) ) – C
/
S ( t , S ( t ) ) dS ( u ) |u = t =
= [ C /
t ( t , S ( t ) ) +
2
1
C
//
SS ( t , S ( t ) ) σ 2
( t ) S 2
( t ) ] dt
2. 2
As far as dΠ ( u , t ) |u = t does not hold risky term with ‘dw’ the rate of return on Π ( u , t ) at t is the risk free
rate r, i.e.
d u Π ( u , t ) |u = t = r Π ( u , t ) du |u = t (3)
Therefore
C /
t ( t , S ( t ) ) +
2
1
C
//
SS ( t , S ( t ) ) σ 2
( t ) S 2
( t ) = r [ C ( t , S ( t ) ) – C
/
S ( t , S ( t ) ) S ( t ) ]
The latter equality is true if option price is a solution of the Black Scholes equation
C /
t ( t , S ) + C
/
S ( t , S ) ) S +
2
1
C
//
SS ( t , S ) σ 2
( t ) S 2
– r [ C ( t , S ( t ) ) ] = 0 ( BSE)
Boundary condition comes from definition of the call option payoff at maturity
C ( T , S ) = max { S – K , 0 }
In [1] it was introduced the option pricing model for a stochastic volatility asset. It was assumed that stock
price follows
dS ( t ) = µ S ( t ) dt + v ( t ) S ( t ) dw 1 ( t )
d )t(v = – )t(v dt + dw 2 ( t ) (4)
E w 1 ( t ) w 2 ( t ) =
It was noted that volatility equation can be rewritten in the form
dv ( t ) = [ 2
– 2 v ( t ) ] dt + 2 )t(v dw 2 ( t ) (5)
which can be represented as a square root process
dv ( t ) = k [ – v ( t ) ] dt + )t(v dw 2 ( t ) (5)
It was stated that “standard arbitrage arguments demonstrate that the value of any asset U ( S , v , t ) must
satisfy the partial differential equation (PDE)
2
1
v S 2
2
2
S
U
+ v S
vS
U2
+
2
1
v 2
2
2
v
U
+ r S
S
U
+ { k [ – v ( t ) ] –
(6)
– λ ( S , v , t ) }
v
U
– r U +
t
U
= 0
The unspecified term λ ( S , v , t ) represents the price of volatility risk, and must be independent of the
particular asset ”.
3. 3
We should pay more attention to the formula (6). As we can see the derivation of the (BSE) is quite formal
while equation (6) is written in a heuristic manner. Let us restore derivation of the equation (6) by following
standard BS scheme represented above. Equation (6) implies the choice of the BS’s hedged portfolio
Π U ( u , t ) in the form
Π U ( u , t ) = U ( S ( u ) , v ( u ) , u ) – U
/
S ( S ( t ) , v ( t ) , t ) S ( u ) – U
/
v ( S ( t ) , v ( t ) , t ) v ( u )
Applying Ito formula we note that the change in the value of the hedged portfolio is risk free and therefore
dΠ U ( u , t ) |u = t =
t
U
+
2
1
v ( t ) S 2
( t ) 2
2
S
U
+ v ( t ) S
vS
U2
+
2
1
v ( t ) 2
2
2
v
U
=
= r [ U – U
/
S S ( t ) – U
/
v v ( t ) ] = r Π U ( u , t ) |u = t dt
where U = U ( S ( t ) , v ( t ) , t ). This equality is true if U ( S , v , t ) is chosen as a solution of the problem
t
U
+ r S U
/
S + r v U
/
v +
2
1
v S 2
2
2
S
U
+ v ( t ) S
vS
U2
+
+
2
1
v 2
2
2
v
U
– r U = 0 (BSE U)
U ( S , v , T ) = max { S – K , 0 }
Note that v ( t ) does not an asset. It does not traded in the market along with asset S ( t ). Therefore it does
not make sense to consider a portfolio with short ‘shares’ of v ( t ). In order to correct derivation of the
equation (6) the term price of volatility was introduced. In such case the BSE term ‘ r v U
/
v ’ is assumed to
be equal to the corresponding term in the equation (6), i.e. one should assume that
r v = k ( – v ) – λ ( S , v , t ) (7)
This is a heuristic equality. There is no formal evidence was presented in order to justify equality (7). If one
wishes to get a correct derivation of the equation (6) it is necessary to consider stochastic price of the
underlying asset in the form (4) where the volatility v ( t ) is replaced by its price counterpart. On the other
hand even this reduction does not make price of the risk to be a traded asset and therefore there is no sense to
talk about buy-sell or long-short of volatility price. The final conclusion is that there is no sense to consider
BS option pricing for assets with stochastic volatility.
Remark. Other curious fact is related to stochastic volatility the equation (5). The Feller’s square root
diffusion is known for a long time. It is nonstandard equation with peculiarity of the diffusion coefficient.
The diffusion coefficient does not satisfy Lipschitz condition at the point zero. The Lipschitz condition is a
sufficient condition for both existence and uniqueness strong solution of the stochastic differential equations.
In [2] the stochastic calculus proof of existence and uniqueness of the solution of the correspondent stochastic
differential equation was represented. There is a fundamental condition on coefficients of the Feller’s
diffusion (5) that guarantees existence solution on any finite time interval. This is inequality
4. 4
2 k > 2
(8)
In our case we see that k = 2 , =
β2
δ 2
, = 2. Thus latter condition does not true as the value
2 k = 2 × 2 ×
β2
δ 2
= ( 2 ) 2
= 2
Equality sign in square root condition is not admitted and therefore we could not guarantee the existence of
the finite volatility of the asset on a finite interval [ 0 , T ].
5. 5
References.
1. Heston, S., Closed-Form Solution for Option with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond
and Currency Options. The Review of Financial Studies, v. 6, issue 2 (1993), 327-343.
2. Gikhman, I., A short remark on Feller’s square root condition.