This document discusses pricing models for American option contracts. It begins by outlining the standard model, which values American options based on the moment that guarantees maximum option value. However, the author proposes an alternative view, where the optimal exercise time is when the underlying asset reaches its maximum value on [0,T]. Exercising at this maximum value ensures a payoff equal to the selling price, avoiding arbitrage. The document formalizes this idea using concepts like risk-neutral probabilities and derivations of put-call parity relationships to define fair option prices.
This document discusses pricing models for American options. It specifies that American options can be exercised at any time prior to maturity, unlike European options which can only be exercised at maturity. The value of an American option is defined as the expected value of the European option price using the random exercise time. American options can be decomposed into their European counterpart plus an early exercise premium. Determining the optimal early exercise time is formulated as finding the stopping time that maximizes the expected discounted payoff over the lifetime of the contract. References for further reading on pricing American options are also provided.
1. The Black-Scholes option pricing model assumes a perfect hedge using a dynamic trading strategy, but this requires frequent rebalancing of the hedge portfolio which incurs transaction costs that are not accounted for in the model.
2. When the hedge portfolio is rebalanced over discrete time intervals, an adjustment cost arises at each interval that affects the expected present value of the cash flows and thus the derived option price.
3. For the Black-Scholes model to accurately price options, it must account for the expected costs of dynamically rebalancing the hedge portfolio over the life of the option.
This document discusses the construction of riskless derivatives portfolios as proposed by Black and Scholes. It summarizes Black and Scholes' approach and then argues that their portfolio is not truly riskless, as it takes on risk at each discrete time interval. Specifically, the portfolio requires reconstruction at each time point to eliminate risk, and in the limit of infinitesimally small time intervals, the portfolio retains risk at all times. The document makes a similar argument against the claim that portfolios of multiple derivatives can be constructed to be riskless.
Critical thoughts about modern option pricingIlya Gikhman
1. The document discusses issues with the Black-Scholes pricing model and proposes an alternative approach. Specifically, it argues that the B-S equation does not necessarily hold at each point in time and adjustments are needed when moving between time intervals.
2. The alternative approach defines option price stochastically based on possible future stock prices at expiration. Price is set to 0 if stock price is below strike, and a fraction of the in-the-money amount otherwise. This defines a distribution for option price based on the underlying stock distribution.
3. In the alternative approach, option price has an associated market risk defined by the probabilities of the traded price being above or below the stochastically defined price.
This document discusses issues with the derivation of the Black-Scholes equation and option pricing model. It highlights two popular derivations of the Black-Scholes equation, noting ambiguities in the original derivation. It proposes defining the hedged portfolio over a variable time interval to address these ambiguities. The document also notes drawbacks of the Black-Scholes price, including that it only guarantees a risk-free return over an infinitesimal time period and does not reflect market prices which may incorporate other strategies.
In this short notice, we present structure of the perfect hedging. Closed form formulas clarify the fact that Black-Scholes (BS) portfolio which provides perfect hedge only at initial moment. Holding portfolio over a certain period implies additional cash flow, which could not be imbedded in BS pricing scheme, and therefore BS option price cannot be derived without additional cash flow which affects BS option price.
Abstract. Regulations of the market require disclosure of information about the nature and extent of risks arising from the trades of the market instruments. There are several significant drawbacks in fixed income pricing modeling. In this paper we interpret a corporate bond price as a random variable. In this case the spot price does not a complete characteristic of the price. The price should be specified by the spot price as well as its value of market risk. This interpretation is similar to a random variable in Probability Theory where an estimate of the random variable completely defined by its cumulative distribution function. The buyer market risk is the value of the chance that the spot price is higher than it is implied by the market scenarios. First we quantify credit risk of the corporate bonds and then consider marked-to-market pricing adjustment to bond price. In the case when issuer of the corporate bond is the counterparty of the bond buyer counterparty and credit risks are coincide.
This document discusses pricing models for American options. It specifies that American options can be exercised at any time prior to maturity, unlike European options which can only be exercised at maturity. The value of an American option is defined as the expected value of the European option price using the random exercise time. American options can be decomposed into their European counterpart plus an early exercise premium. Determining the optimal early exercise time is formulated as finding the stopping time that maximizes the expected discounted payoff over the lifetime of the contract. References for further reading on pricing American options are also provided.
1. The Black-Scholes option pricing model assumes a perfect hedge using a dynamic trading strategy, but this requires frequent rebalancing of the hedge portfolio which incurs transaction costs that are not accounted for in the model.
2. When the hedge portfolio is rebalanced over discrete time intervals, an adjustment cost arises at each interval that affects the expected present value of the cash flows and thus the derived option price.
3. For the Black-Scholes model to accurately price options, it must account for the expected costs of dynamically rebalancing the hedge portfolio over the life of the option.
This document discusses the construction of riskless derivatives portfolios as proposed by Black and Scholes. It summarizes Black and Scholes' approach and then argues that their portfolio is not truly riskless, as it takes on risk at each discrete time interval. Specifically, the portfolio requires reconstruction at each time point to eliminate risk, and in the limit of infinitesimally small time intervals, the portfolio retains risk at all times. The document makes a similar argument against the claim that portfolios of multiple derivatives can be constructed to be riskless.
Critical thoughts about modern option pricingIlya Gikhman
1. The document discusses issues with the Black-Scholes pricing model and proposes an alternative approach. Specifically, it argues that the B-S equation does not necessarily hold at each point in time and adjustments are needed when moving between time intervals.
2. The alternative approach defines option price stochastically based on possible future stock prices at expiration. Price is set to 0 if stock price is below strike, and a fraction of the in-the-money amount otherwise. This defines a distribution for option price based on the underlying stock distribution.
3. In the alternative approach, option price has an associated market risk defined by the probabilities of the traded price being above or below the stochastically defined price.
This document discusses issues with the derivation of the Black-Scholes equation and option pricing model. It highlights two popular derivations of the Black-Scholes equation, noting ambiguities in the original derivation. It proposes defining the hedged portfolio over a variable time interval to address these ambiguities. The document also notes drawbacks of the Black-Scholes price, including that it only guarantees a risk-free return over an infinitesimal time period and does not reflect market prices which may incorporate other strategies.
In this short notice, we present structure of the perfect hedging. Closed form formulas clarify the fact that Black-Scholes (BS) portfolio which provides perfect hedge only at initial moment. Holding portfolio over a certain period implies additional cash flow, which could not be imbedded in BS pricing scheme, and therefore BS option price cannot be derived without additional cash flow which affects BS option price.
Abstract. Regulations of the market require disclosure of information about the nature and extent of risks arising from the trades of the market instruments. There are several significant drawbacks in fixed income pricing modeling. In this paper we interpret a corporate bond price as a random variable. In this case the spot price does not a complete characteristic of the price. The price should be specified by the spot price as well as its value of market risk. This interpretation is similar to a random variable in Probability Theory where an estimate of the random variable completely defined by its cumulative distribution function. The buyer market risk is the value of the chance that the spot price is higher than it is implied by the market scenarios. First we quantify credit risk of the corporate bonds and then consider marked-to-market pricing adjustment to bond price. In the case when issuer of the corporate bond is the counterparty of the bond buyer counterparty and credit risks are coincide.
Last my paper equity, implied, and local volatilitiesIlya Gikhman
In this paper we present a critical point on connections between stock volatility, implied
volatility, and local volatility. The essence of the Black Scholes pricing model is based on assumption
that option piece is formed by no arbitrage portfolio. Such assumption effects the change of the real
underlying stock by its risk neutral counterpart. Market practice shows even more. The volatility of the
underlying should be also changed. Such practice calls for implied volatility. Underlying with implied
volatility is specific for each option. The local volatility development presents the value of implied
volatility.
1) The document discusses pricing models for derivatives such as options and interest rate swaps. It introduces concepts such as local volatility, which models implied volatility as a function of strike price and time to maturity.
2) Black-Scholes pricing is based on the assumption of a perfect hedging strategy, but the document notes this is formally incorrect as the hedging portfolio defined does not satisfy the required equations.
3) Local volatility presents the option price as a function of strike and time to maturity, with the diffusion coefficient estimated from option price data, whereas Black-Scholes models the price as a function of the underlying and time, with volatility as an input.
There are several significant drawbacks in derivative price modeling which relate to global regulations of the derivatives market. Here we present a unified approach which in stochastic market interprets option price as a random variable. Therefore spot price does not complete characteristic of the price in stochastic environment. Complete derivatives price includes the spot price as well as thevalue of market risk implied by the use of the spot price. This interpretation is similar to the notion of therandom variable in Probability Theory in which an estimate of the random variable completely defined by its cumulative distribution function
. In some papers it have been remarked that derivation of the Black Scholes Equation (BSE) contains mathematical ambiguities. In particular in [2,3 ] there are two problems which can be raise by accepting Black Scholes (BS) pricing concept. One is technical derivation of the BSE and other the pricing definition of the option.
In this paper, we show how the ambiguities in derivation of the BSE can be eliminated.
We pay attention to option as a hedging instrument and present definition of the option price based on market risk weighting. In such approach, we define random market price for each market scenario. The spot price then is interpreted as a one that reflects balance between profit-loss expectations of the market participants.
A new derivation of the Black Scholes Equation (BSE) based on integral form stochastic calculus is presented. Construction of the BSE solution is based on infinitesimal perfect hedging. The perfect hedging on a finite time interval is a separate problem that does not change option pricing. The cost of hedging does not present an adjustment of the BS pricing. We discuss a more profound alternative approach to option pricing. It defines option price as a settlement between counterparties and in contrast to BS approach presents the market risk of the option premium.
In this paper we show how the ambiguities in derivation of the BSE can be eliminated.
We pay attention to option as a hedging instrument and present definition of the option price based on market risk weighting. In such approach we define random market price for each market scenario. The spot price then is interpreted as a one that reflect balance between profit-loss expectations of the market participants
This document discusses the Black-Scholes pricing concept for options. It summarizes two common derivations of the Black-Scholes equation, the original by Black and Scholes which uses a hedged position consisting of a long stock position and short option position. An alternative derivation presented in some textbooks uses a hedged position consisting of a long option position and short stock position. The document also notes that while the Black-Scholes price guarantees a risk-free return at a single moment in time, it does not necessarily reflect market prices and there is no guarantee the market will use the Black-Scholes price.
In this paper, we show how the ambiguities in derivation of the BSE can be eliminated.
We pay attention to option as a hedging instrument and present definition of the option price based on market risk weighting. In such approach, we define random market price for each market scenario. The spot price then is interpreted as a one that reflects balance between profit-loss expectations of the market participants.
In this paper, we show how the ambiguities in derivation of the BSE can be eliminated.
We pay attention to option as a hedging instrument and present definition of the option price based on market risk weighting. In such approach, we define random market price for each market scenario. The spot price then is interpreted as a one that reflects balance between profit-loss expectations of the market participants.
1. The document presents a new approach to proving comparison theorems for stochastic differential equations (SDEs) using differentiation of solutions with respect to initial data.
2. It proves that if the drift term of one SDE is always greater than or equal to the other, and their initial values satisfy the same relation, then the solutions will also satisfy this relation for all time.
3. Two methods are provided: the first uses explicit solutions, the second avoids this by showing the difference process cannot reach zero in finite time based on its behavior.
1) The document outlines drawbacks in the Black-Scholes option pricing theory, including mathematical errors in its derivations. Specifically, the assumption that a hedging portfolio eliminates risk is incorrect as a third term was omitted from the change in the portfolio value.
2) It also discusses issues with the local volatility adjustment concept, noting that transforming the constant diffusion coefficient to a local volatility surface does not actually explain the smile effect observed in options data.
3) While local volatility aims to match implied volatilities observed in the market, the theory suggests the local volatility surface should actually be equal to the original constant diffusion coefficient.
1. The document discusses the pricing of variance swaps using risk neutral valuation. It defines variance swaps as transactions where the payout is based on the difference between realized variance and a prespecified strike variance.
2. It derives a formula for the strike variance that is equal to the risk-neutral expected value of the average variance over the swap period, where the expectation is calculated using Black-Scholes option pricing.
3. The value of a variance swap is defined as the notional amount multiplied by the difference between realized variance, estimated from historical stock prices, and the strike variance estimated from option prices. The variance swap thus specifies the value of differences between two estimates of the true variance.
Pricing Exotics using Change of NumeraireSwati Mital
The intention of this essay is to show how change of numeraire technique is used in pricing derivatives with complex payoffs. In the first instance, we apply the technique to pricing European Call Options and then use the same method to price an exotic Power Option.
Market risk and liquidity of the risky bondsIlya Gikhman
This document discusses modeling the effect of liquidity on risky bond pricing using a reduced form approach. It begins by presenting a simplified model where default can only occur at maturity. It then extends this to a discrete time approximation for default occurrence. The key concepts discussed are:
- Defining bid and ask prices for risk-free and corporate bonds to model liquidity spread
- Using a single price framework and extending it to account for liquidity spread
- Modeling the corporate bond price as a random variable based on default/no default scenarios
- Defining market and spot prices of bonds and the associated market risks for buyers and sellers
- Estimating the recovery rate and default probability given observations of spot prices over time
This document presents a critique of the Black-Scholes option pricing model. It identifies two primary errors in the Black-Scholes approach: 1) They presented an incorrect interpretation of the option price by defining it based on risk-free borrowing rather than as a settlement price between buyer and seller. 2) Their implementation of the original Black-Scholes idea led to an incorrect pricing equation, while a more accurate derivation should have led to a different pricing equation. The document then presents an alternative option pricing approach based on an investment equality principle that two cash flows are equal when their instantaneous rates of return are equal at any time. This provides a definition of option price at time t that promises the same rate of return
Stochastic Local Volatility Models: Theory and ImplementationVolatility
1) Hedging and volatility
2) Review of volatility models
3) Local volatility models with jumps and stochastic volatility
4) Calibration using Kolmogorov equations
5) PDE based methods in one dimension
5) PDE based methods in two dimensions
7) Illustrations
equity, implied, and local volatilitiesIlya Gikhman
This document discusses connections between stock volatility, implied volatility, and local volatility in option pricing models. It provides an overview of the Black-Scholes pricing model, which assumes stock volatility is known. However, implied volatility estimated from market option prices does not match the true stock volatility. The local volatility model develops implied volatility as a function of underlying variables to better match market prices, without relying on an assumed stock process.
This document discusses the Black-Scholes pricing concept for options. It summarizes two popular derivations of the Black-Scholes equation, the original derivation and an alternative presented in other literature. It also discusses ambiguities that have been noted in the derivation of the Black-Scholes equation and proposes corrections to the derivation using modern stochastic calculus. Specifically, it introduces a hedged portfolio function defined over two variables to accurately represent the value and dynamics of the hedged portfolio. The document concludes that the Black-Scholes pricing concept only guarantees a risk-free return at a single point in time and does not necessarily reflect market prices.
This document discusses the Black-Scholes pricing concept for options. It summarizes two common derivations of the Black-Scholes equation, the original by Black and Scholes which uses a hedged position consisting of a long stock position and short option position. An alternative derivation presented in some textbooks uses a hedged position consisting of a long option position and short stock position. The document also notes that while the Black-Scholes price guarantees a risk-free return at a single point in time, it does not necessarily reflect market prices and there is market risk for the option seller at future times.
1. The document discusses the pricing of variance swaps using risk neutral valuation. It defines variance swaps as transactions where the payout is based on the difference between realized variance and a prespecified strike variance.
2. It derives a formula for the strike variance that equates it to the risk-neutral expected value of the integrated variance process over the swap period, where the expectation is calculated using Black-Scholes option prices.
3. The document explains that variance swaps allow parties to hedge differences between estimates of ex-ante variance derived from option prices and ex-post variance calculated from realized stock returns over the swap period.
Pricing American Options - Duality approach in Monte CarloIlnaz Asadzadeh
The document discusses pricing American options using the duality approach in Monte Carlo simulations. It formulates the American option pricing problem as an optimal stopping problem, where the value is the expected discounted payoff under the optimal exercise rule. It approximates the continuation value function using least squares regression, simulating the regression coefficients with Monte Carlo asset price paths. The approach recursively calculates values moving backward from the expiration to price the option using the estimated continuation values.
Last my paper equity, implied, and local volatilitiesIlya Gikhman
In this paper we present a critical point on connections between stock volatility, implied
volatility, and local volatility. The essence of the Black Scholes pricing model is based on assumption
that option piece is formed by no arbitrage portfolio. Such assumption effects the change of the real
underlying stock by its risk neutral counterpart. Market practice shows even more. The volatility of the
underlying should be also changed. Such practice calls for implied volatility. Underlying with implied
volatility is specific for each option. The local volatility development presents the value of implied
volatility.
1) The document discusses pricing models for derivatives such as options and interest rate swaps. It introduces concepts such as local volatility, which models implied volatility as a function of strike price and time to maturity.
2) Black-Scholes pricing is based on the assumption of a perfect hedging strategy, but the document notes this is formally incorrect as the hedging portfolio defined does not satisfy the required equations.
3) Local volatility presents the option price as a function of strike and time to maturity, with the diffusion coefficient estimated from option price data, whereas Black-Scholes models the price as a function of the underlying and time, with volatility as an input.
There are several significant drawbacks in derivative price modeling which relate to global regulations of the derivatives market. Here we present a unified approach which in stochastic market interprets option price as a random variable. Therefore spot price does not complete characteristic of the price in stochastic environment. Complete derivatives price includes the spot price as well as thevalue of market risk implied by the use of the spot price. This interpretation is similar to the notion of therandom variable in Probability Theory in which an estimate of the random variable completely defined by its cumulative distribution function
. In some papers it have been remarked that derivation of the Black Scholes Equation (BSE) contains mathematical ambiguities. In particular in [2,3 ] there are two problems which can be raise by accepting Black Scholes (BS) pricing concept. One is technical derivation of the BSE and other the pricing definition of the option.
In this paper, we show how the ambiguities in derivation of the BSE can be eliminated.
We pay attention to option as a hedging instrument and present definition of the option price based on market risk weighting. In such approach, we define random market price for each market scenario. The spot price then is interpreted as a one that reflects balance between profit-loss expectations of the market participants.
A new derivation of the Black Scholes Equation (BSE) based on integral form stochastic calculus is presented. Construction of the BSE solution is based on infinitesimal perfect hedging. The perfect hedging on a finite time interval is a separate problem that does not change option pricing. The cost of hedging does not present an adjustment of the BS pricing. We discuss a more profound alternative approach to option pricing. It defines option price as a settlement between counterparties and in contrast to BS approach presents the market risk of the option premium.
In this paper we show how the ambiguities in derivation of the BSE can be eliminated.
We pay attention to option as a hedging instrument and present definition of the option price based on market risk weighting. In such approach we define random market price for each market scenario. The spot price then is interpreted as a one that reflect balance between profit-loss expectations of the market participants
This document discusses the Black-Scholes pricing concept for options. It summarizes two common derivations of the Black-Scholes equation, the original by Black and Scholes which uses a hedged position consisting of a long stock position and short option position. An alternative derivation presented in some textbooks uses a hedged position consisting of a long option position and short stock position. The document also notes that while the Black-Scholes price guarantees a risk-free return at a single moment in time, it does not necessarily reflect market prices and there is no guarantee the market will use the Black-Scholes price.
In this paper, we show how the ambiguities in derivation of the BSE can be eliminated.
We pay attention to option as a hedging instrument and present definition of the option price based on market risk weighting. In such approach, we define random market price for each market scenario. The spot price then is interpreted as a one that reflects balance between profit-loss expectations of the market participants.
In this paper, we show how the ambiguities in derivation of the BSE can be eliminated.
We pay attention to option as a hedging instrument and present definition of the option price based on market risk weighting. In such approach, we define random market price for each market scenario. The spot price then is interpreted as a one that reflects balance between profit-loss expectations of the market participants.
1. The document presents a new approach to proving comparison theorems for stochastic differential equations (SDEs) using differentiation of solutions with respect to initial data.
2. It proves that if the drift term of one SDE is always greater than or equal to the other, and their initial values satisfy the same relation, then the solutions will also satisfy this relation for all time.
3. Two methods are provided: the first uses explicit solutions, the second avoids this by showing the difference process cannot reach zero in finite time based on its behavior.
1) The document outlines drawbacks in the Black-Scholes option pricing theory, including mathematical errors in its derivations. Specifically, the assumption that a hedging portfolio eliminates risk is incorrect as a third term was omitted from the change in the portfolio value.
2) It also discusses issues with the local volatility adjustment concept, noting that transforming the constant diffusion coefficient to a local volatility surface does not actually explain the smile effect observed in options data.
3) While local volatility aims to match implied volatilities observed in the market, the theory suggests the local volatility surface should actually be equal to the original constant diffusion coefficient.
1. The document discusses the pricing of variance swaps using risk neutral valuation. It defines variance swaps as transactions where the payout is based on the difference between realized variance and a prespecified strike variance.
2. It derives a formula for the strike variance that is equal to the risk-neutral expected value of the average variance over the swap period, where the expectation is calculated using Black-Scholes option pricing.
3. The value of a variance swap is defined as the notional amount multiplied by the difference between realized variance, estimated from historical stock prices, and the strike variance estimated from option prices. The variance swap thus specifies the value of differences between two estimates of the true variance.
Pricing Exotics using Change of NumeraireSwati Mital
The intention of this essay is to show how change of numeraire technique is used in pricing derivatives with complex payoffs. In the first instance, we apply the technique to pricing European Call Options and then use the same method to price an exotic Power Option.
Market risk and liquidity of the risky bondsIlya Gikhman
This document discusses modeling the effect of liquidity on risky bond pricing using a reduced form approach. It begins by presenting a simplified model where default can only occur at maturity. It then extends this to a discrete time approximation for default occurrence. The key concepts discussed are:
- Defining bid and ask prices for risk-free and corporate bonds to model liquidity spread
- Using a single price framework and extending it to account for liquidity spread
- Modeling the corporate bond price as a random variable based on default/no default scenarios
- Defining market and spot prices of bonds and the associated market risks for buyers and sellers
- Estimating the recovery rate and default probability given observations of spot prices over time
This document presents a critique of the Black-Scholes option pricing model. It identifies two primary errors in the Black-Scholes approach: 1) They presented an incorrect interpretation of the option price by defining it based on risk-free borrowing rather than as a settlement price between buyer and seller. 2) Their implementation of the original Black-Scholes idea led to an incorrect pricing equation, while a more accurate derivation should have led to a different pricing equation. The document then presents an alternative option pricing approach based on an investment equality principle that two cash flows are equal when their instantaneous rates of return are equal at any time. This provides a definition of option price at time t that promises the same rate of return
Stochastic Local Volatility Models: Theory and ImplementationVolatility
1) Hedging and volatility
2) Review of volatility models
3) Local volatility models with jumps and stochastic volatility
4) Calibration using Kolmogorov equations
5) PDE based methods in one dimension
5) PDE based methods in two dimensions
7) Illustrations
equity, implied, and local volatilitiesIlya Gikhman
This document discusses connections between stock volatility, implied volatility, and local volatility in option pricing models. It provides an overview of the Black-Scholes pricing model, which assumes stock volatility is known. However, implied volatility estimated from market option prices does not match the true stock volatility. The local volatility model develops implied volatility as a function of underlying variables to better match market prices, without relying on an assumed stock process.
This document discusses the Black-Scholes pricing concept for options. It summarizes two popular derivations of the Black-Scholes equation, the original derivation and an alternative presented in other literature. It also discusses ambiguities that have been noted in the derivation of the Black-Scholes equation and proposes corrections to the derivation using modern stochastic calculus. Specifically, it introduces a hedged portfolio function defined over two variables to accurately represent the value and dynamics of the hedged portfolio. The document concludes that the Black-Scholes pricing concept only guarantees a risk-free return at a single point in time and does not necessarily reflect market prices.
This document discusses the Black-Scholes pricing concept for options. It summarizes two common derivations of the Black-Scholes equation, the original by Black and Scholes which uses a hedged position consisting of a long stock position and short option position. An alternative derivation presented in some textbooks uses a hedged position consisting of a long option position and short stock position. The document also notes that while the Black-Scholes price guarantees a risk-free return at a single point in time, it does not necessarily reflect market prices and there is market risk for the option seller at future times.
1. The document discusses the pricing of variance swaps using risk neutral valuation. It defines variance swaps as transactions where the payout is based on the difference between realized variance and a prespecified strike variance.
2. It derives a formula for the strike variance that equates it to the risk-neutral expected value of the integrated variance process over the swap period, where the expectation is calculated using Black-Scholes option prices.
3. The document explains that variance swaps allow parties to hedge differences between estimates of ex-ante variance derived from option prices and ex-post variance calculated from realized stock returns over the swap period.
Pricing American Options - Duality approach in Monte CarloIlnaz Asadzadeh
The document discusses pricing American options using the duality approach in Monte Carlo simulations. It formulates the American option pricing problem as an optimal stopping problem, where the value is the expected discounted payoff under the optimal exercise rule. It approximates the continuation value function using least squares regression, simulating the regression coefficients with Monte Carlo asset price paths. The approach recursively calculates values moving backward from the expiration to price the option using the estimated continuation values.
1. The document discusses the concept of forward rates and their use in pricing forward rate agreements (FRAs). It proposes models for randomizing both the future LIBOR rate and the implied forward rate used in FRA pricing.
2. FRAs are over-the-counter derivatives where the payoff depends on the difference between the realized LIBOR rate and the fixed FRA rate. However, LIBOR is unknown at pricing date so the implied forward rate is used as an approximation, introducing market risk.
3. The document presents stochastic differential equations to model the future LIBOR rate and the implied forward rate as random processes. This allows calculation of market risk metrics like expected losses for FRA buyers and sellers.
This document discusses modeling fixed interest rates and summarizes the key concepts. It proposes a new approach to constructing variable deterministic and stochastic interest rates based on randomizing the forward rate concept. It defines basic terms like zero-coupon bond prices, interest rates, and cash flows. It then summarizes the pricing of forward rate agreements and interest rate swaps, highlighting the difference between the benchmark approach and the proposed stochastic approach, which accounts for market risk.
This document contains solutions to sample exam questions for an MFE/3F exam. The first question involves using put-call parity to calculate the risk-free interest rate given call and put option prices on a stock. The solution is 0.039. The second question involves analyzing if given call and put option prices allow for arbitrage opportunities; both Mary and Peter's proposed portfolios are correct. The third question calculates the fee amount y% an insurance company should charge on a stock-linked deferred annuity to break even. The solution is 13.202%. The fourth question values an American call option on a stock using a two-period binomial model; the value is 2. The fifth question values a dollar-denomin
Expanding further the universe of exotic options closed pricing formulas in t...caplogic-ltd
The document proposes a pricing method for exotic options like Best Of and Rainbow options that results in a closed-form pricing formula. The method assumes returns follow a Brownian motion under the Black-Scholes model. The pricing formula is a linear combination of the current market prices of the underlying assets multiplied by a probability expressed in the risk-neutral measure. This probability can be evaluated using the cumulative function of the normal multivariate distribution if the payoff is defined as a comparison of asset prices at different times. The paper provides proofs and discusses how to evaluate the required probability.
5 parametric equations, tangents and curve lengths in polar coordinatesmath267
Parametric equations describe the motion of a point in a plane using coordinate functions x(t) and y(t) that depend on a parameter t. The document provides examples of plotting parametric equations by selecting values for t and calculating the corresponding x and y coordinates. It is possible to find the standard x-y equation for a parametric curve by solving for t in terms of x or y. Parametric equations do not always generate the entire graph of an x-y curve. Circles and other curves can also be parameterized.
Interest Rate Modeling With Cox Ingersoll Rossstretyakov
The document describes the Monte Carlo method for estimating integrals and its application to pricing financial derivatives. It discusses using Monte Carlo simulation to price a European call option and a caplet by generating random stock prices and short-term interest rates based on stochastic processes, and taking averages of the discounted payoffs over many sample paths. It also examines how the parameters of the short-rate Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model affect the generated term structure of interest rates.
The document discusses a stochastic volatility model that incorporates jumps in volatility and the possibility of default. It describes the dynamics of the model and how it can be used to price volatility and credit derivatives. Analytical and numerical methods are presented for solving the pricing problem. As an example application, the model is fit to data on General Motors to analyze the implications.
The document provides an introduction to quantitative finance concepts including option pricing models. It begins with an outline and terminology. It then covers the Black-Scholes option pricing model, which uses stochastic calculus to derive a partial differential equation for pricing European options. The document also discusses replicating strategies in discrete and continuous time models, as well as extensions like American options and the Greeks.
We use stochastic methods to present mathematically correct representation of the wave function. Informal construction was developed by R. Feynman. This approach were introduced first by H. Doss Sur une Resolution Stochastique de l'Equation de Schrödinger à Coefficients Analytiques. Communications in Mathematical Physics
October 1980, Volume 73, Issue 3, pp 247–264.
Primary intention is to discuss formal stochastic representation of the Schrodinger equation solution with its applications to the theory of demolition quantum measurements.
I will appreciate your comments.
A short remark on Feller’s square root condition.Ilya Gikhman
This document presents a proof of Feller's square root condition for the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model of short interest rates.
The CIR model describes the dynamics of the short rate r(t) as a scalar SDE with parameters k, θ, and σ.
The theorem states that if the Feller condition 2kθ > σ^2 is satisfied, then there exists a unique positive solution r(t) on each finite time interval t ∈ [0, ∞).
The proof uses Ito's formula and Gronwall's inequality to show that as ε approaches 0, the probability that the solution falls below ε approaches 0 as well.
1) The document discusses models for pricing corporate bonds, specifically comparing a reduced form default model to the author's proposed model.
2) In the author's model, the date-t bond price is a random variable between the minimum and maximum price on date t, rather than a single number. This models the bond price as the present value of the recovery rate assuming default occurs at maturity.
3) With the bond price as a random variable, the recovery rate can be assumed to be a non-random constant, reducing the default problem to finding the unknown recovery rate and default probability. Equations for the first and second moments of the bond price can then be derived.
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1. 1
Pricing of American Options.
Ilya I. Gikhman
6077 Ivy Woods Court
Mason, OH 45040, USA
Ph. 513-573-9348
Email: ilya_gikhman@yahoo.com
Classification code. G13.
Key words. European options, American options.
Abstract. In this paper, we present somewhat alternative point of view on early exercised American
options. The standard valuation of the American options the exercise moment is defined as one, which
guarantees the maximum value of the option. We discuss the standard approach in the first two sections of
the paper. The standard approach was initially presented in the papers [3] - [7]. Our idea is that the
exercise moment of the American call / put options is defined by maximum / minimum value of
underlying. It was shown that at this moment exercise and sell prices are equal.
I. An option gives a contract holder the right to buy or to sell an underlying security such as a
share of stock on a specified future date called maturity for a known exercise price called also strike price.
Option to buy is a call option whereas an option to sell is known as a put option. Such options are called
European options. American option gives its holders the right to exercise the option on or before the
expiration date.
Consider a stock which dynamics follows ordinary SDE
d S ( t ) = µ ( t ) S ( t ) dt + σ ( t ) S ( t ) dw ( t ) (1)
with a standard Wiener process w ( t ), t 0 defined on a complete probability space { , F , P }. Here
µ ( t ) and σ ( t ) > 0 are known nonrandom continuous function on t.
European Call and Put options are defined by its payoff
C E ( T , S ) = max { S ( T ) – K , 0 }
P E ( T , S ) = max { K – S ( T ) , 0 }
2. 2
at maturity date T. The valuation (pricing) problem is to define fair price of the options at any time prior
to maturity. First step is to define notion ‘fair’ price of an option. Introduce a risk free traded instrument
known as bond. As far as bonds are risk free assets its rate of return is riskless either for deposits or for
borrowing transactions. The rule used for determining fair pricing is no arbitrage principle. It states that
there is no way to get profit in the market starting with zero value of initial investment. Briefly recall
European option pricing following Black-Scholes concept [1].
Denote V ( t , S ( t )) the option price at t. Then in case of European call and put options
V ( t , S ( t )) = C E ( t , S ( t ))
V ( t , S ( t )) = P E ( t , S ( t ))
correspondingly. Date-t instantaneous hedge portfolio is defined as
Π ( u , S ( u ) ; t ) = V ( u , S ( u ) ) + ( t , S ( t ) ) S ( u ) (2)
where
( t , S ( t ) ) =
S
))t(S,t(V
Here u, u t is a variable and t , t [ 0 , T ] is a fixed parameter. Formula (2) defines change in the
value of the portfolio at moment t 0. Differential of the value Π ( u , t ) with respect to variable u at t is
equal to
d Π ( u , S ( u ) ) | u = t = d V ( t , S ( t ) ) + ( t , S ( t ) ) d S ( t ) (3)
Bearing in mind Ito formula the change in the value of the portfolio at the moment u = t is equal to
d Π ( u , S ( u ) ) | u = t = [ 2
222
S
))t(S,t(V
2
)t(σ)t(S
t
))t(S,t(V
] d t
Latter formula does not contain the risk term proportional to d w ( t ). In order to exclude arbitrage
opportunity: borrow at risk free financing portfolio at t and return borrowing plus risk free interest at
t + dt one needs to assume that
d Π ( t , S ( t ) ) = r Π ( t , S ( t ) ) d t (4)
Here r denotes the risk free interest rate. In other words, rates of return of the riskless portfolio and
riskless borrowing rate should be equal. Equality (4) leads to Black Scholes equation
2
222
x
)x,t(V
2
σx
t
)x,t(V
+ r
x
)x,t(V
– r V ( t , x ) = 0 (BSE)
t < T. For European call and put options boundary conditions are equal to
max { S ( T ) – K , 0 } , max { K – S ( T ) , 0 }
3. 3
correspondingly. Denote C E ( t , x ; T , K ), P E ( t , x ; T , K ) the European call and put prices at t. These
functions are solutions of the (BSE) equation. Note that underlying of the BSE solution is the risk neutral
heuristic random process S r ( t ), which follows stochastic equation
d S r ( t ) = r S r ( t ) dt + σ S r ( t ) dw ( t ) (5)
Indeed, the process S r ( t ) does not represent a traded asset. Pricing formula (BSE) shows that underlying
of the option is the random process Sr ( u ) on original probability space{ Ω , F , P } while according to
the general definition of the derivative underlying should be the random process (1). Risk-neutral world
was presented as a solution of the confusion. Of course, it does not eliminate the fact that underlying of
the Black-Scholes pricing formula is the random process (5). Note that random process S ( t ) is always
defined on original probability space { Ω , F , P } regardless whether options on this stock exist or not.
Risk neutral valuation suggests to consider equation (1) on the risk-neutral probability space { Ω , F , Q }
where ‘risk-neutral’ probability measure Q is defined by the formula
Q ( A ) = A
{ exp
T
0
[
σ
rμ
d w Q ( t ) –
2
1
T
0
(
σ
rμ
) 2
d t ] } P ( d ω )
for a set A F. Here w Q ( t ) is a Wiener process on { Ω , F , Q }. Then the random process
S r ( t ) = S r ( t , ω ) is a solution of the risk-neutral equation (5) on probability space { Ω , F , P } with a
Wiener process
w ( t ) = w Q ( t ) +
t
0
σ
rμ
d u
on { Ω , F , P }. Thus the essence of the risk neutral valuations is to consider diffusion equation (1) on
risk-neutral probability space { Ω , F , Q }. Note that usually one incorrectly states that stock is
considered on risk neutral probability space while stock is defined on real space { Ω , F , P }. Actually we
considered equation that corresponding stock on { Ω , F , Q } and there is no traded asset which follows
(1) on { Ω , F , Q } that is equal to (5) on { Ω , F , P }.
II. Value of the American options give its holders the right to exercise it at any time prior to
maturity date. Denote C A ( 0 , x ; T , K ) value of American call option at t = 0 given that S ( 0 ) = x
Here T and K are maturity and exercise price of the option correspondingly. Primary approach to
American option pricing uses no arbitrage arguments was outlined in [6]. The well known idea is that
with no dividends on underlying stock American call option should not be exercised prior to maturity. We
present other idea related to American options valuation.
The standard valuation suggests do not exercises American call options prior to maturity based on the fact
that selling options gives higher than exercise price at the same moments of time. Recall put-call parity
relationships. We present this relationship for Black Scholes European option prices. Indeed if we use
notations for call and put options without its formal definitions derivation of the put-call parity looks
rather like a heuristic statement. Then
4. 4
C E ( t , x ; T , K ) = B ( t , T ) E [ S r ( T ; t , x ) – K ] { S r ( T ; t , x ) > K } ,
P E ( t , x ; T , K ) = B ( t , T ) E [ K – S r ( T ; t , x ) ] { S r ( T ; t , x ) < K } =
= B ( t , T ) E [ K – S r ( T ; t , x ) ] [ 1 – { S r ( T ; t , x ) > K } ]
where S ( t ) = x and B ( 0 , T ) the value of the risk free bond at t = 0 with expiration at T. The function
u ( t , x ) = E S r ( T ; t , x ) satisfies the same risk free bond equation and boundary condition
u ( T , x ) = x. Therefore
P E ( t , x ; T , K ) – C E ( t , x ; T , K ) = B ( t , T ) [ K – E S r ( T ; t , x ) ] =
= B ( t , T ) [ K – x B – 1
( t , T ) ]
Hence
P E ( t , x ; T , K ) – C E ( t , x ; T , K ) = B ( t , T ) K – S ( t ) (PCP)
Taking into account that values of the put and call options are positive from (PCP) it follows that
max { S ( t ) – K , 0 } ≤ max { S ( t ) – B ( t , T ) K , 0 } ≤ C E ( t , S ( t ) ; T , K ) ≤ S ( t ) (6)
Inequality (6) shows that exercise price is always less than the price of the European call option.
Suppose that American call option is exercised at a random moment τ ( ω ) [ 0 , T]. If the call option is
exercised at the moment t , t ≤ T then payoff is equal to the value S ( t ) – K which is the European call
payoff with maturity at t , given that S ( t ) > K.
On the other hand it might be confusion to observe that exercising option prior to maturity implies a
strictly positive payoff while exercising at maturity should be also equal to zero. We study American call
option pricing more accurately than it is suggested by equality (PCP) and (6).
III. Introduce value of the American call option C A ( 0 , x ; τ ( ω ) ; T , K ) , which is exercised at
a random moment τ ( ω ) = τ 0 T ( ω ) [ 0 , T ]. It is obvious that
C A ( 0 , x ; τ ( ω ) ; T , K ) = C E ( 0 , x ; τ ( ω ) , K ) (7)
Indeed,
C A ( 0 , x ; τ ( ω ) ; T , K ) { τ ( ω ) = t } = C E ( 0 , x ; t , K ) { τ ( ω ) = t }
for any t [ 0 , T ]. It follows from definition of the call option that
C E ( τ , S ( τ ) ; , K ) = max { S ( τ ) – K , 0 }
Value C E ( 0 , x ; τ ( ω ) , K ) defines no arbitrage price of the European call option at t = 0 with
maturity at a random moment τ ( ω ). Define American option price at t = 0 by the formula
5. 5
C A ( 0 , x ; T , K ) = E C A ( 0 , x ; τ ( ω ) ; T , K ) = E C E ( 0 , x ; τ ( ω ) , K ) (8)
Note that distribution of the exercise moment is an explicit parameter which specifies American option
price. From (7) and (PCP) it follows that for each
C A ( 0 , x ; τ ( ω ) ; T , K ) = C E ( 0 , x ; τ ( ω ) , K ) ≥ max { S ( 0 ) – B ( 0 , τ ( ω )) K , 0 }
and therefore
C A ( 0 , x ; T , K ) ≥ E max { S ( 0 ) – E B ( 0 , τ ) K , 0 } > max { S ( 0 ) – K , 0 }
Hence, we could state that selling option for C A ( 0 , x ; T , K ) looks better than exercise it for
max { S ( 0 ) – K , 0 } at t = 0. If the price of the option is larger than exercise price prior to a moment t
then American option does not exercised on [ 0 , t ].
Hence, a sufficient condition for does not exercise American option on [ 0 , t ] is
C A ( u , S ( u ) ; T , K ) = E C A ( 0 , x ; τ ( ω ) ; T , K ) > S ( u ) – K = C E ( u , S ( u ) ; t , K ) (9)
u [ 0 , t ]. Indeed, inequality (9) does not admits arbitrage opportunity during [ 0 , t ]. If for some t ,
S ( t ) > 0 and we observe the inverse relationship
C A ( t , S ( t ) ; T , K ) < S ( t ) – K
then at the moment t there exists an arbitrage opportunity. Indeed, buying option for C A ( t , S ; T , K ) at
t and immediately exercising it leads to a riskless positive profit
S – K – C A ( t , S ; T , K ) > 0
Therefore the necessary and sufficient condition to exercise American call at a moment t is the equality
C A ( t , S ; T , K ) = S ( t ) – K (10)
Equality (10) is equivalent to construction of the moment(s) for which
C E ( τ T ( ω ) , S ( τ T ( ω ) , ) ; τ T ( ω ) ; T , K ) = S ( τ T ( ω ) , ) – K
Bearing in mind (9), (10) one can state that
P { τ T ( ω ) = T } = 1
and therefore with probability 1
C A ( t , S ; τ T ( ω ) ; T , K ) = C E ( t , S ; T , K )
This is the essence of the American call benchmark pricing.
On the other hand it is obvious that if American call option is exercised at the random moment
= [ 0 , T ] ( ω ) which represents maximum value of the underlying stock on [ 0 , T ] , i.e.
[ S ( ( ω ) , ) – K ] =
]T,0[t
max
[ S ( t , ) – K ] { S ( t , ) > K }
6. 6
then it guarantees a higher payoff value than exercising option at the maturity date T. We also should see
that moment ( ω ) does not a Markov stopping time. Therefore investors could never state whether this
moment is already realized or not. This practical difficulty suggests a reduction of the maximum exercise
moment to the set of Markov stopping times. Such a reduction simplifies the problem and could not
guarantee optimal return of American options.
Bearing in mind equality (9) and excluding arbitrage opportunity taking place if
C A ( t , S ( t ) ; T , K ) < S ( t ) – K
We note that exercise price of the American call option is equal to the selling price at the moment ( ω ).
Indeed, let be arbitrary random variable taking values on [ 0 , T ]. Then bearing in mind that is the
moment of the maximum S ( t ) on [ 0 , T ] we conclude that for any random moment of time τ = τ ( ω )
S ( ) – K ≤ S ( ) – K
Therefore
C A ( , S ( ) ; τ ( ω ) , K ) ≤ S ( ) – K
This equality shows that either prior or later than at ( ω ) exercise of the option , i.e. τ ≥ leads to the
lower value payoff of the option. This remark also takes place for τ = T too. Thus
C A ( ( ω ) , S ( ( ω ) ) ; ( ω ) ; T , K ) = S ( ( ω ) , ) – K
Bearing in mind that does not a stopping time we can also conclude that for some market scenarios
C A ( ( ω ) , S ( ( ω ) ) may not reach the level S ( ( ω ) , ) – K. From (7) it follows that
C A ( 0 , x ; T , K ) = E C E ( 0 , x ; ( ω ) , K ) = E B ( 0 , ( ω ) ) [ S r ( ( ω ) ) – K ] (11)
where B ( 0 , t ) is the value of the risk free bond at time 0 with expiration date t. Formula (11) represents
Black Scholes pricing and uses risk neutral underlying process S r ( t ). The maturity of this underlying is
specified by the moment that is specified by the real underlying process S ( t ). Now let us look at the
problem how to apply this idea in practice. Denote
F ( y ) = P {
]T,0[t
max
S ( t , ) < y }
Choose a number Q ( 0 , 1 ) such that the value [ y Q – K ] / C A ( 0 , x ; T , K ) from investor point of
view is sufficient return over ( 0 , T ) on investment C A ( 0 , x ; T , K ) at t = 0 and probability 1 – Q
does not a small chance to expect that the price S ( t ) will reach the level y Q . Here Q and y Q are
defined as
P {
]T,0[t
max
S ( t , ) < y Q } = Q
Note that the moment when S ( t ) reaches the level y Q is a Markov stopping time defined on filtration
generated by the observations S ( t ). Option buyer can also get a table with barrier levels y 1 < … < y n
7. 7
and correspondent probabilities Q 1 < … < Q n and profits [ y j – K ] / C A ( 0 , x ; T , K ) , j = 1, … , n
which corresponds to a particular trading strategies.
IV. Consider now American put pricing. From equality (PCP) it follows that
max { K – S ( t ) , 0 } ≤ max { B ( t , T ) K – S ( t ) , 0 } ≤ P E ( t , x ; T , K ) ≤ B ( t , T ) K
Let ( ) [ 0 , T ] be arbitrary random moment at which investor exercises put option. We do not
suppose here that ( ) is a Markov moment. Denote t a market scenario for which
( t ) = t [ 0 , T ]
Given scenario t the value of American put option P A ( 0 , x ; ( t ) ; T , K ) should be equal to the
correspondent value P E ( 0 , x ; t , K ) of the European put option with the same strike price K and
maturity t. Thus the fair price of the put option for each market scenario is defined by equality
P A ( t , x ; τ ( ) ; T , K ) = P E ( t , x ; ( ) , K ) (12)
For a fixed random function P E ( t , x ; ( ) , K ) is equal to European Put option and therefore
P E ( t , x ; ( ) , K ) = { e – r ( T – t )
E max [ K – S r ( T ; t , x ) , 0 ] } T = ( )
Taking expectation we arrived at a statistical estimate which we interpret as American put option price
P A ( t , x ; T , K ) = E P A ( t , x ; ( ) ; T , K ) = E P E ( t , x ; ( ) , K )
The value of American put could be decomposed into European put and early exercise premium
P A ( t , x ; T , K ) = P E ( t , x ; T , K ) – [ E P E ( t , x ; ( ) , K ) – P E ( t , x ; T , K ) ]
The difference
P A ( t , x ; T , K ) – P A ( t , x ; ( ) ; T , K ) = P A ( t , x ; T , K ) – P E ( t , x ; ( ) , K )
defines market risk of the American put. The value
P { P A ( t , x ; T , K ) – P A ( t , x ; ( ), T , K ) > 0 }
specifies the chance of overpricing, when buyer of the American put pays higher price than it is implied
by the market scenario. Similarly, the value
P { P A ( t , x ; T , K ) – P A ( t , x ; ( ), T , K ) < 0 }
specifies seller’s overpaid market risk. Following the idea introduced for American call option pricing
define random moment P ( ) which guarantees maximum value of the put payoff
]T,0[t
max
[ K – S ( t ) ] { S ( t ) < K } = [ K – S ( P ( )) ] { S ( P ( )) < K }
8. 8
Bearing in mind that exercise moment P ( ) of the American put coincides with
]T,0[t
min
S ( t ) we can
transform the optimal exercise time problem for the American put to the optimal exercise problem for the
American call option. Indeed, taking into account that
P {
]T,0[t
min
S ( t ) > 0 } = 1
we enable to apply Ito formula to f ( S ( t ) ) = S – 1
( t ). Then applying Ito formula we can easy verify
that
d S – 1
( t ) = [ – µ ( t ) + σ 2
( t ) ] S – 1
( t ) dt + σ ( t ) S – 1
( t ) dw ( t )
Latter formula demonstrates the fact that the random process S – 1
( t ) is a Geometric Brown Motion
with drift and diffusion coefficients σ 2
( t ) – µ ( t ) , σ ( t ) correspondingly. Therefore the optimal time
to exercise American put for each market scenario
]T,0[t
max
{ K – S ( t , ) , 0 }
is reduced to find minimum of the process S ( t , ) which coincides with the problem of finding
maximum of the process S – 1
( t ) on [ 0 , T ]. Thus the problem of American put exercising is reduced to
similar problem for the American call option.
9. 9
References.
1. Black, F., Scholes, M. (1973). The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities. The Journal of
Political Economy 81 637-659.
2. Carr, P. , Jarrow, R. , Myneni, R., (1992), Alternative Characterizations of American Put Options,
Mathematical Finance 2, 87-106.
3. Jacka, S.D., (1991). Optimal Stopping and the American Put, Journal of Mathematical Finance,
Volume 1 1–14.
4. Kim, I. J., (1990). The Analytic Valuation of American Options, Review of Financial Studies,
Volume 3 547–72.
5. McKean, H. P., Jr. (1965), Appendix: A free boundary problem for the heat equation arising from
a problem mathematical economics. Indust. Manage. Rev. 6 32-39.
6. Merton, R., (1973), The theory of rational option pricing, Bell Journal of Economics 4, 141–183.
7. van Moerbeke, P.L.J. (1976), On optimal stopping and free boundaries problems. Arch. Rational
Mech. Anal. 60 101-148.