CRISMA overview and architecture presentation on the end users workshop in Brussels. More info on http://www.crismaproject.eu/

1. Modelling crisis management for improved action and preparedness
Funded from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under grant agreement no. 284552 "CRISMA“
Modelling crisis management for
improved action and preparedness
(CRISMA)
CRISMA Workshop
Brussels, 30.05.2013
Denis Havlik (AIT), Johannes Sauter (Fraunhofer)

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Overview
 What is CRISMA?
 CRISMA test cases
 Technical Design Decisions
 What do we expect from you today?

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CRISMA-project in a nut shell
EU-FP7
Theme 10: Security Call
FP7- SEC-2011.4.1-1 Crisis management modelling tool
Type of funding scheme: Collaborative Project
Type of project: Integration Project
Work programme topics addressed: SEC-2011.4.1-1
Duration 42 months
Start date: 1st March 2012, End date: 30th August 2015
Effort 1097,85 person months
Cost/EU-Funding appr. 14.4 m Euro / appr. 10.1 m Euro
WWW www.crismaproject.eu
Contacts Anna-Mari Heikkilä, VTT
Crisma.Coordinator@vtt.fi

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CRISMA Partners (1)

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VTT
Insta
FMI
* ESC
TTU
ADAI
FhG
EADS
CIS
* DRK
AM
RA
* MDA, Israel
NICE, Israel
AIT
SGH
SpB
PSCE
CRISMA Partners (2)

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CRISMA Vision:
Support crisis managers and
other stakeholders in training and
planning activities related to large
scale crisis
These crisis typically surpass the
capacity of the local crisis
management and may have
significant cascaded and side-
effects.

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Intended uses of CRISMA
Debriefing
Real-life exercises
(Desktop) TrainingPlanning

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Overview
 What is CRISMA?
 CRISMA test cases
 Technical Design Decisions
 What do we expect from you today?

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CRISMA test cases
 Pilot A : Northern winter storm with cross-border effects (Finland)
 Pilot B : Coastal Submersion – Charente-Maritime (France)
 Pilot C : Accidental Pollution – Ashdod (Israel)
 Pilot D : Geophysical Hazards – L’Aquila (Italy)
 Pilot E : Mass casualty incident (Germany)

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Pilot A : Northern winter storm with cross-border
effects (Finland)
 Enduring low temperatures,
heavy snowfall and strong
winds have caused major
regional and cross-border
problems.
 Considers failing of traffic and
power lines, communication,
heating, health services, water
and waste water systems.
 Large-scale & cross-border.
 Cascading effects are likely.

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CRISMA in Pilot A
 Use:
 "CRISMA tool" is used in exercise/scenario planning in
working groups (small groups of 5-7 persons), for planning,
executing and refining the training scenario
 Iteratively going through different options and parameterizing
the tool, viewing different results from "decisions" taken
 The added-value:
 common view to scenario planning/execution work for
cooperating organizations
 possibility to see gaps in processes and resources in planning
and training situations -> to improve preparedness in long-term

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Pilot B : Coastal Submersion – Charente-Maritime
(France)
 A coastal submersion on the
Atlantic coast of Charente-
Maritime in France caused by
strong winds.
 Amplification due to strong tide
 Public facilities and civil
protection systems are
severely affected.
 Isolated people, ruptured
communications routes...
 Cascading effects

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CRISMA in Pilot B
Needs
Telling the national level
ASAP what kind of impact is
expected ( large scale, local
scale)
When and where to send
observers, how many (dike
survey ,.. reality from the
field)
Where are possible
bottlenecks, where are
endangered people, what
are possible cascading
effects ?
 Sharing a common simulation platform and set of
tools (instead of usual risk maps that are valid only for
a given event under given circumstances)
 Assessing the potential impact of a given event at a
large scale for all crisis response team members,
 Identifying the possible most impacted areas,
possible most damaged dikes, …
 Assessing the impacts ( social, economic,
environmental) at small scale enabling dike breaches
simulations, evacuation possibilities, .. Testing
different mitigation possibilities, different decision, ….
Response or added value of CRISMA

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Pilot C : Accidental Pollution – Ashdod (Israel)
 A large accidental spill from a
container transporting Bromine
is immediately affecting the
port and later the city centre
(100 000 inhabitants).
 Consider the effects of various
decisions on development and
final outcome
 Possible extensions the multi-
hazards, e.g. seismic, flood,
fire, pandemic.

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CRISMA in Pilot C
 CRISMA system is operated
by information officers and
runs independently from the
command and control system
 The situation picture could be
forwarded to C&C system.
Alternatively, the situation is
shown on CRISMA system
and interpreted by in. Officer.
 Medical commander decides
what to do and the in. off.
executes the decision on
CRISMA system.

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Pilot D : Geophysical Hazards – L’Aquila (Italy)
 A large seismic event hits the
L’Aquila region, causing
structural damage and follow-
up cascading effects
 Scenario includes the effects
of reoccurring seismic events
and secondary forest fires,

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CRISMA in Pilot D
Use:
 Preparedness and planning: optimal distribution of resources?
 Training: intervention after an earthquake or during forest fire
 Response: alternative management policies
The added-value:
 Quantitative assessment of impact scenarios (simulated by
assumption of alternative strategies) to compare
 Cost/ benefit analysis
 Multi-criteria analyses

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Pilot E : Mass casualty incident – Germany
 Phase 1: bus crash with 50 injured on a rural-district level.
 Phase 2: a mass casualty, e. g. in a stadium or congress centre
occupied with people of several nationalities
Accident
Alert at Command & Control Center
9:00 AM 09:13
Start Operational Phase
Arrival on site,
Hazard Anaysis
Pre-Triage
09:18
Spatial planning
09:22 09:37 10:13
Transportation to hospitals
09:25
All injured on the
way to hospitals
Treatment of patients (on site, in vehicle)

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CRISMA in Pilot E
Use:
 Training and Exercise-Support
 Resource Planning (Material/Vehicles/Personnel)
Added Value:
 Support real-life exercises
 Analyse and compare results
 Compare exercise-runs with simulated response
simulation runs
 Calibrate response simulation models
 Improve operational plans

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Overview
 What is CRISMA?
 CRISMA test cases
 Technical Design Decisions
 What do we expect from you today?

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Sample CRISMA scenarioFiremen & co.
can be either
real or
simulated
Users care about the
situation, predictions
and own decisions.
Behind the
scenes, various
services are
invoked

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Conceptual Business Logic
World
(what is out here?)
World
Model
Incident
Model
Response
Model
World
Situation(X, t)
Incident
Situation(X, t)
Parameters ParametersParameters
Define freely Define freely Define freely
OR OR OR
(what are we dealing with?) (how do we react?)
Incident Responseinfluences influences
Restore
Model
Restore
Situation(X, t)
Response
Situation(X, t)
Define freely
Parameterscreates
The „world“ is
represented by „situation“
and by models which can
change the situation
Situations and models
pertinent to different stages
of crisis management are
relatively decoupled
New situations
can also be
postulated by
users

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Materialization of the CRISMA business logic
Vulnerability Classes
:
Situation Maps
Objects of Interest
Weather Data
...
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
SimulationWorld State
Manipulation
Vulnerability Classes
:
Situation Maps
Objects of Interest
Weather Data
...
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
World State'
change
Criteria and Costs
Criteria and Costs
Criteria Function
Federated
Simulation
. . .
Federated
Simulation
Federated
Simulation
calculate
trigger
perform
kl
Hazard Exposure
Mitigation
Resource
Management
f
M
M
M
M
CRISMA
framework
operate on
„world states“,
coherent sets
of data
describing the
(simulated)
world
Users Decisions
change the world state
– either directly or by
changing model
parameters
Everything we
know about the
World is based
on the world
state

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Criteria and Costs
World
State
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World
State
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World
State
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World
State
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World State
Data
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World
State
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World
State
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World
State
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World
State
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World State
Data
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
World State
Transition
Time
Alternatives
Criteria and Costs
World
State
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World
State
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World
State
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World
State
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World State
Data
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World
State
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World
State
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World
State
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World
State
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World State
Data
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
Decision Points & Alternative Worlds
Alternative users’
decisions result in
alternative World
States.
The results can be
compared...

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Criteria and Costs
World
State
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World
State
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World
State
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World
State
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World State
Data
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World
State
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World
State
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World
State
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World
State
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
World State
Data
Criteria and Costs
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World
State
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World
State
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World
State
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World
State
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World State
Data
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World
State
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World
State
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World
State
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World
State
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World State
Data
Simulation
Model Control
Parameter
Planning
Decision
Making
Training
 Criteria and Costs
 are representative
quantifications of a world
state
 are independent from the
models and decisions
 are the base for situation
analysis and visualization
 support decision making
 transferable solutions can
be developed

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Functional Building Blocks of the CRISMA Framework
User interaction BBs
Web widgets which
can be easily
combined in mashup
applications
Infrastructure BBs
Provide the core
functionality of the
Framework
Integration BBs simplify the
task of integrating data and
models in CRISMA

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Integration at Service & GUI level
Service level: CRISMA
framework is service oriented =>
applications can be made by
combining the services
GUI level: Alternatively, the
applications can be built from
mashable (web) widgets by
crisis management experts
 Ad-hoc stand alone (web)
applications
 Integrate as a new view in
existing web or desktop
applications

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Main models types in CRISMA
ECONOMIC
IMPACTS
CASCADE
EFFECTS
TIME
DEPENDENT
VULNERABILITY
RESSOURCES
MANAGEMENT
Illustrations by: Konzumel (money - http://www.flickr.com/photos/kozumel/), Jeff McNeill (time - http://www.flickr.com/photos/jeffmcneill/),
Donwoodyard (ambulance - http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Lanka_ambulance.jpg),
Nauticashades (domino - http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ADomino_Cascade.JPG)

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 Loose Coupling
Model Integration
Model 1 Model 2
Data
Exchange
or
Model 1 Model 2
e.g. „only“
Relation
via Geo-
Location
Model 1 Model 2
Data
Exchange
vs. Tight Coupling
 CRISMA framework will
support lose integration of
loosely coupled models
 Models will be accessible
through standard OGC service
interfaces; WPS will be used to
control the model execution
 Tightly coupled models will be
handled externally (e.g. using
OpenMI) and appear as a
single compound model for the
framework

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Encapsuation
Model Integration (2)
 Existing models can be
encapsulated behind standard
OGC interfaces
 CRISMA models will also
provide default user interface
in form of mashable web
widget(s)
 However, we will also provide
support for materialization of
the algebraic models and
models which can be realized
using agents (resources/OOI)
Materialization
 Algebraic Models
 Agent-based
OGC SERVICE
INTERFACES
Mashable GUI
widget(s)
 Illustrations by: iCLIPART (model, agent); T.Nijeholt (GIS model, http://commons.wikimedia.org);

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Overview
 What is CRISMA?
 CRISMA test cases
 Technical Design Decisions
 What do we expect from you today?

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Context of use vs. Pilots
Debriefing
Real-life
exercisesTraining
Planning
Exercise planning
Pilot
Use
Case
1. Long-term
planning
2. Incident
evolvement
planning
Context
Of Use
Office,
Distributed
• Decider
• Crisis
Manager
Office or
Control Room
• CRISMA-user
• Decider
middle-level
• Decider
higher-level
B – France D – Italy E – Germany,
C – Israel
A – Finland
3. Resource
planning
4. Command
and Control
Training
6. Operational
Training
C – Israel E – Germany
5. Exercise-
Support
Office or
Command
Post
• Decider
on lower/
tactical
level
Office, distri-
buted
• Decider
middle-level
• Decider
higher-level
Command
Post
• Decider
middle-level
• Information
officer
• Trainer
Control Room
• Dispatcher
tactical level
• Trainer
Exercise scene
• Exercise
leader
• Exercise
Data Steward

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We need your feedback (on this
presentation and especially in follow-
up poster session) to re-assess the
CRISMA requirements and design
decision => improve the usability of
the final CRISMA results!

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Thank you very much!
www.crismaproject.eu
Modelling crisis management for
improved action and preparedness
Funded under grant agreement
no. 284552
denis.havlik@ait.ac.at
Denis Havlik
© Sven Grundmann – fotolia.com
johannes.sautter@iao.fraunhofer.de
Johannes Sautter